“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Silver Chart ( by Request)


Here is a look at the weekly chart of silver which has already fallen below chart support near $18.60 and thus far has not been able to regain its footing above that key level.


Note that the indicator below the chart has made a new low for the year which is suggestive of further downside yet to come. The key will be whether or not the metal can stay above $18.00 which is the next level of chart support. If not, it looks headed for a test of the bottom of the 2010 congestion zone near $17.50.

A weekly close below $18.00 would suggest the beginning of a TRENDING MOVE LOWER.

53 comments:

  1. Thats one ugly looking chart indeed ... in my opinion at worst it doesnt go anywhere , I see more risk to the upside , for anything else I put my stops , and we shall see . Thanks for sharing .

    ReplyDelete
  2. in my view if scotland says no there is volatility and hopefully gold goes higher , if it says yes , most likely , market higher , usd down , gold higher

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you remember Bill Haynes guys ?

    The one that had some sort of magical telephone which counted the number of calls and thus predicted the price of silver ?

    Yes, the one that always talked about the retail crowd being dumb money and who was perplexed by the fact that they got the top right in silver.

    Well, he must be bathing in scarce fiat money right now after shoving all that silver he aquired at less than 5$ to all the smart money.

    They must be using it to install photovoltaics on their roof by now.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The bears HATE this market, keep trying to get the top, but FED keep injecting money, just not so much as they were before. We are still going up. This is one scary chart.

    Check out this scary chart ===> http://bit.ly/1fMcakI

    Basically the way you look at this, it means, we keep going up on the market, every time there is an injection of money by teh fed. Do you love it? can you smell the top? welll.... I dunno, but if you are smelling something, it smell like more verbal diareha about the fed, and how they are ramping this market, before the death crash like 2008 is coming.

    Remember how everyone got tricked into that con job. The market goes andn crashes every 7 years from 2000 so that means things will get very interesting in the next sevearl years.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Let's respect each other's opinions.
    Of course, there is also (and always) a risk to the upside, it doesn't deserve a lol imho.
    Actually, on the 4 hour candle chart, I can now see a bullish divergence on the MACD for gold prices.

    The week is not over yet, there are still two days to come, and I simply would not be surprised if we see a big short squeeze develop now on gold and propel prices back towards 1250 and above before this weekend.

    Bears and Bulls be both careful on this market.
    There are also a few indicators favoring the bull case right now, with gold bottoming at 1220 and currently pricing 1223. Be extra careful, whatever position you have.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. P.S : the bullish divergence on the MACD 4 h is still only potential, i.e the MACD is starting to turn, but we need to see if it bounces upwards from there.

      Delete
    2. If gold goes down because dollar goes up because EUR USD goes down, then again, it is too early to shout Victory for gold and silver bears.

      1) 18.50 is still holding for silver. It is not broken, so prices may once more bump higher from there.
      2) The 2 week time unit shows a candle completely out of the bollinger bands regarding EUR USD. This advocates for a pause and some move upwards soon, maybe right next week. Candles totally in levitation outside a bollinger band is not a sustainable phenomenon, and that's the kind of signal I used to buy gold on 1st july 2013 at 1200 $.

      The end of the week might be crucial for both sides, and I'll look carefully where prices close regarding those somehow correlated markets.

      Delete
  6. SILVER SET TO CRASH DUE TO OVERSTOCKED COMEX WAREHOUSES

    As the relentless transfer of Silver from East to West continues, TPTB are once again artificially supporting the price of physical metal in order to avoid a force majeure technical default on COMEX, where warehouse inventories wre now so overstocked, it us surely only a matter if time before the Exchange insists on cash settlement in fiat, because it simply cant find any more space to store the barren metal nobody seems to want any more. [SEE CHART - http://goldsilversecurity.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/C.png ]

    Market Insider and one-time Car Lease specialist Andrew I'mnotScottish (out of ideas) told us that the Big Sovereign Money and Savvy Investors "on the sidelines" have decided that's the place to be (on the sidelines) and have almost limitless stocks of worthless shiny trinkets to unload on unsuspecting mug punters "at these bargain prices"

    Finally, the criminal conspiracy of TPTB and the Surge Protection Team have met their comeuppance, and it us no surely only a matter of time before Silver's "true" market value becomes apparent (I reckon around $6oz, if you can find a buyer)

    As ever, our advice remains the same : Keep Frackin' cos wecare gonna need those bottomless pits pretty soon - either to store Silver in or, more likely, to look into to see where the price has gone

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good stuff, PCB!

      In other news, your "keep frackin'" comment made me think of another developing meltdown, that of the DW drillers. The dividend addicts over on SA are frothing about "shares on sale!" "averaging down!" and all sorts of other nonsense to justify their continued holdings of these disasters-in-the-making. A LOT more money will be lost at sea before that sector turns around...

      Delete
  7. "By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
    Dear CIGAs,
    Investment strategist John Embry says the market manipulation in physical gold and silver is coming to an end. How close? Embry says, “I think we are very close now in the sense that the physical supplies of both gold and silver are being diminished at a fast clip."

    Guess when was this posted?
    Yesterday? Yes, you are partly right.
    In fact, the very same message was sent also a year ago, 2 years ago, 3 years ago, 4 years ago... someday, that guy will eventually be right and be made a hero by Greg and KWN, claiming he called the bottom. How sick.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hubert

    I din't need to be "right" nearly ss much as I need to be lucky. Oddly good luck seems to be closely associated with self-discipline and "sticktuitiveness"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You gotta be in it to win it!

      **********************************************************************

      Posted December 20th, 2011 at 1:43 PM (CST) by Eric King & filed under King World News.

      It certainly gets lonely out there when the voices of gold all turn negative.
      –Jim Sinclair

      London Trader – We are Witnessing a Historic Bottom in Gold

      (Courtesy of Eric King at www.KingWorldNews.com

      Delete
    2. Post and Hubert; The one good thing about Embry, and "Kneepads" Hunter is that they are both like mules, which is a good thing, in that they can not reproduce

      Delete
  9. SP500 is grinding its way higher.
    We are still within the crossroads of the 2 both upwards channels, so possibly forming a rising wedge, but the top of the slower upwards channel is now near 2025.
    With a daily bollinger band at the level of the last highs, with a 4 hour candle doji "water carrier", I guess there may be quite a number of stop losses just above 2012.
    I'll try to enter SP500 on the short side only if and when it hits the top resistance now near 2025, and to quickly buy back if no correction occurs.
    For now on any long time unit, the trend is powerful and up. Most impressive is the 2 weeks candle chart. No comment : It's bullish.

    ReplyDelete
  10. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. a mirror website of Capital Star spammers?
      What, you have secondary websites too, you clowns?

      Delete
  11. "Unless we can get that Phase Transition sooner than later in equities, there will be no dramatic crash. The last time wiped out so many retail investors, they have not returned and liquidity is at 50% of 2007 levels. This trend has impacted gold as well. The gold promoters have wiped out so many people there also the numbers interested in gold are down. Then we have FATCA preventing international capital investment flows with the hunt for taxes. Then we have the whole problem of reserves. The dollar is the only game in town and this has forced central banks to buy equities. They will not liquidate on a panic move easily. Without the real Phase Transition, there cannot be a huge swing down. The higher you move the wilder the move down.
    You need that point of inflection to reverse a market. Take gold. Until you really break the back of the gold promoters, the low will not firm up. It is like Japan, The low in the Nikkei kept moving lower because everyone was long looking to sell the rally. You need extreme bearishness to create the low for they cover and mark the rally. Then the fight the rally as we have seen in the stock market – the perpetual non believers. We we flip that sentiment in gold you will reverse the trend/ Nothing ever moves just in one direction forever." - M.Armstrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert, he is missing all the action this month and not making any calls, just bullshitting about history and 300 year cycles this and that, but at least he stays in the Spellcheck Hall of Fame

      Delete
  12. "The gold promoters have wiped out so many people there also the numbers interested in gold are down."

    M. Armstrong on 18 September 2014

    ****************************************************************************
    Posted January 27th, 2012 at 1:02 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under Martin Armstrong.

    My Dear Friends,

    I have made it a practice not to comment on other people’s opinions as everyone has a right to voice how they see things and express themselves. I also know that no one really knows to the penny or exact day. Having said that, we in the community have given a stage to an expert on long term cyclical economic and political events.

    Martin Armstrong is a master of this discipline and may have no real competition between cycle and historic commentary. However, as you can see from one example of the large amount of incoming mail I am getting over the past few days, I need to answer Martin’s third bearish call.

    The first two calls for $1100 did not materialize. In fact, gold twice went in the opposite direction with a fervour.

    I do not agree with Martin here and now.

    By normal measures, the US dollar is violently oversold. The dollar and gold has been tied whether I like it or not.

    There are special circumstances in the dollar now as the Fed has turned the light on domestic QE. I cannot see a significant dollar rally as a result. I also cannot see gold doing worse than chopping into the $1700 range.

    If there is anything correct to his bearish prediction, which I doubt, it would take this action to a chop between $1650-1764, but I think we are now moving into the $1700-2111 range.

    Martin Armstrong is the master at the long term cyclical events. To abandon gold now to try and buy it cheaper in 60 to 90 days with the world of finance in the condition it is in, is in my mind MADNESS.

    Sincerely,
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Posted February 19th, 2013 at 3:19 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.

      My Dear Friends,

      1. The more insulting the hate email becomes, the closer we are to an absolute low in this manufactured gold reaction. It is really foul today.

      2. The nerve that I touched yesterday when I questioned the FDIC viability and aggregate insurance tells me that there is huge population of readers taking comfort in the absolute belief that the FDIC really will return your US dollar deposits should we have a systemic crisis. It will not because it cannot. It does not have the assets to meet even a small portion of all its implied guarantees. The size of the implied guarantee when you consider brokers as banks is enormous. It is an outrageous concept that you silly people take faith in. All your yelling and screaming letters go directly into the spam file. The best one is the jerk that ordered me to repent.

      3. Gold will trade at $3500 and above. You bears that bang on me in an organized way on every reaction since $248 are once again wasting your time. Your emails do nothing but encourage me that I am absolutely correct.

      4. Sending me the tomes of the Trojan Horse gold writer’s bearish gold claims and expecting me to answer you is another waste of your time. My answer is they are wrong, but if you believe them do whatever you please.

      Sincerely,
      Jim

      Delete
    2. Posted September 8th, 2014 at 1:29 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.

      My Dear Extended Family,

      Cycles are best understood as probabilities for directional movement. Those gold cycles that turned down at $1900 have now turned up with the price of gold now plumbing previous lows which are by definition major support.

      The price objective once this experience is over is $2100, and is where it will trade in time.

      I can only imagine what a deluge of emails this will bring from the Gold Internet Trolls.

      Respectfully yours,
      Jim

      Delete
    3. Jasper,

      Sorry but I don't interpret the mails as you do.

      " To abandon gold now to try and buy it cheaper in 60 to 90 days with the world of finance in the condition it is in, is in my mind MADNESS."

      I still concurr to that one.
      Understand Jim is not talking to speculators or short term traders, but to eveyone so that they buy some gold, forget about it, in case of the worst. He is too pessimistic or worried or gloom, boom and doom, whatever you want to call it, because it didn't happen (Yet?), but on that point of view, he is only saying that gold is an insurance and that once you have it, you shouldn't resell it and jeopardize that insurance to try to buy it lower a few months later.
      I'm sorry but I AGREE with this.

      "The price objective once this experience is over is $2100, and is where it will trade in time."
      Once again, Jim is only trying to keep people who bought their gold not to sell it now at lower prices, and keep their insurance. He is not pushing people to buy more now, not pushing people to buy TRX stocks, and he says "once this experience is over", so he doesn't make a forecast about bottoms.

      I'm sorry, but I had the occasion to write a lot to the man, and he is not the evil incarnate you try to make of him. I don't know about TRX, he is clearly not credible about any technical forecasts about Gold, he advertised and promoted Bo Polny on his website, so for sure there are many things he did wrong and especially Bo Polny is a big bad one. But you don't need to try so hard to make the picture even darker. Sinclair is not Emperor Palpatine.

      Delete
    4. Hubert;

      I am not going to try to defend what Jim is doing but he needs to knock it off with his price and time predictions. He no more knows what gold is going to do next NOR where it is going to trade in price at some point in the future than the next guy. That he keeps doing that is simply wrong.

      How in the hell does he know that gold is going to trade to over $2100 "when this experience is over"?

      Define "experience". Is that a week, is it a month, is it a year or is it 5 years? There is no "experience" taking place' there is simply the view of the market that gold is not the place to park money due to current economic conditions ( no inflation, falling commodity prices, slowing global growth, strong Dollar. etc.).

      He makes it sound as it is just a matter of moments before the "experience" will be over. The "experience" has been going on ever since gold entered its current bear market when it broke below support at $1535. That is ALL THAT NEEDS TO BE SAID. Nothing about "experiences" "cycles", "manipulations" "short squeezes", etc.

      The more people refuse to look at what is front of their eyes when it comes to falling GLD inventories, falling TIPS spread, etc., the more they are susceptible to these sort of "based on nothing" prognostications about price and time.

      Gold is insurance. If you want to buy it for protection against monetary or geopolitical occurrences, that is just fine. Buy it and go about one's business knowing that they have it. But STOP with the damned, never ending price is "going to move higher" crap.

      He does not know nor does anyone else. And that is a simple fact.

      Delete
    5. Sinclair and all the other barkers out there can't stand the thought they were completely wrong and more or less ignorant how this might go.

      QE to infinity?
      USD collapse imminent?
      Stock market collapse?
      Gold and silver shortage?
      JPM "stuck" with a massive short position?
      JPM with a massive long gold position?
      They can't taper QE?
      The taper isn't really a taper?

      All of the completely wrong (and continued!) ascertions by "the experts" are starting to resemble a pattern of behavior that is unbalanced to put it kindly.
      Einstein had a famous quote about insanity and doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result.
      I wouldn't call anyone insane for being short-sighted, thin-skinned or gullible because they're insecure and unable to acknowledge being wrong.

      It's always someone else's fault that the shills aren't right.
      That's the re-ocurring theme over and over. Pretty sad.

      Delete
    6. "How in the hell does he know that gold is going to trade to over $2100 "when this experience is over"?"

      Absolutely Dan, and that's why I wrote :
      "he is clearly not credible about any technical forecasts about Gold"
      He completely lost his credibility about gold forecasts long ago, especially by promoting people like Bo Polny. So be it.






      Delete
    7. TD...I wrote the above on Sinclair and other's before seeing your comment above.
      Didn't mean to piggyback off your thoughts on JS.

      The Scottish results later and the effect on currencies should be interesting to witness later.
      Should make for a very interesting market on Friday.

      Delete
    8. The problem with Jim, Hubert, is bigger then wrong predictions. The problem is that Jim isnt honest cannot be trusted and privately does the opposite of what he recommends. He spreads false and misleading information about his company and actually lies and profits of it.

      He was recommending people to sell their pensions and buy gold and gold shares while selling himself. Thats sickening irresponsible.

      Delete
    9. Dark Purple;

      No worries, it is completely accurate in its description of what has been occurring without ceasing.

      The only thing you left out was the Backwardation Claptrap, Negative GOFO rates, and "the taper isn't really a taper" because Belgium is the back door being used by the Fed to keep QE going.

      also, don't forget the "smart money is moving into the metals in big way right now".

      Sigh....

      The problem is that these Johnnie one notes cannot ever admit that they are wrong. Maybe people would stop wasting their time reading what they have to say or listening to their interviews ( not that anything new is ever said except for pushing the latest "gold is getting ready to head to the moon anyday now theory").

      Uninformed and gullible people, swallow this swill and then sadly, ACT ON IT and end up losing huge sums of money in the process sometimes wrecking their own families, marriages and careers as a result.

      It is a GOLD CULT. pure and simple....

      Delete
    10. Jasper, if it is true, then I completely support your point of view.
      Good night for now, time to go to bed for me as well :)

      Delete
  13. Dan - I have a quick off-topic question for you about sugar:

    Oct is trading around 14c, while March, the next active contract, is around 16c - a steep contango. Why is this? is Sugar not a store-able commodity? Why isn't everyone buying Oct sugar, storing it for 6 months, and delivering it in March?

    it seems that either 1) it's impossible to store or 2) expensive to store, but I can't see why either of those would be the case.

    thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kid Dynamite:

      I trade sugar only occasionally but what I can tell you is that October is the end of one marketing year and the March contract is the first one available for the next marketing year. In other words, they are two different year crops, a lot like August soybeans and November soybeans. The former is the old crop; the latter is the new crop.

      Both crops can have different sets of fundamentals.

      current year sugar has an oversupply compared to demand. That might have forced small planted areas leading to less supply down the road and thus the reason for the big spread in price.

      If I have some time I will get more details for you.

      Dan

      Delete
    2. thanks, Dan - so basically it sounds like you're saying that you can't just buy the sugar and store it...

      that confuses me, but it's interesting nonetheless

      Delete
  14. All this domestic oil production is so very dollar bullish. All those dollars get taken away from global oil trade and get deployed domestically. The dollar just cannot get kicked over. Even our "enemies" are tripping over themselves to get dollars.

    Keep your gold fully hedged. I like gold. The globalists also like gold, but they are also short on the COMEX. Take your profits at the washout and buy more. Or buy rental properties. As a property manager, get used to accepting Section 8 vouchers, as half the country will be using them by the end of the decade. America will be like Soviet Russia, and the people will love it.

    They can collect their benefits and dawdle on their cell phones.

    ReplyDelete
  15. New lows for the move in gold and silver.

    Golf Clap for 17 "acclaimed experts" who got it dead wrong for 3+ years now:

    Eric "Crybaby" King

    James "Belvedere" Dines

    "General" Jim Sinclair

    James "Bond" Rickards

    Bill "Wild Turkey" Murphy

    Rick "I'd Love To!" Rule

    Paul Craig "Moonshiner" Roberts

    Richard "Godfather" Russell

    Eric "The Billionaire" Sprott

    Stephen "Squeaky" Leeb

    David "Blue Hair" Stockman

    Egon "Egghead" Von Greyerz

    James "Month In, Month Out" Turk

    Michael "Screaming" Pento

    Peter "Smug Face" Schiff

    John "Squealer" Embry

    John "The Monk" Hathaway

    Ben "Prep School" Davies

    ReplyDelete
  16. Period around the Fall Equinox has not been kind to Silver over the past 3 years...Sep 20-24.

    2013 (5.72%)
    2012 (1.52%)
    2011 (16.03%)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/Silver_Buyers_Keep_Stacking_And_Demand_Higher_Despite_Falling_Prices

      A shakeout is needed on the Silver etfs. Too many folks still holding on...

      Delete
    2. Dan, can you comment on the SLV ETF and the like? You usually post remarks on the GLD but I would like to hear you opine on the Silver ETFs as well if you get a chance. Do you see investors unloading or accumulating etf shares as prices on Silver continue to fall (if they do)? thanks

      Delete
    3. Bob;

      SLV, in my mind, is not in quite the same league when it comes to GLD for this reason - the supply of silver is increasing faster than the supply of gold. That means SLV holdings may even go higher as the price of silver goes lower because the increase in demand is still INSUFFICENT to absorb the larger increase in supply which silver is experiencing.

      It still comes down to supply and demand.

      I do not think silver is going to go higher until the market sentiment changes towards inflation replacing that of the current "slow growth, no inflation" sentiment.

      Delete
  17. A little morning humor...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPvIrM7_2BU

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi Dan,
    Just curious,...i recall that you've mentioned before that you own physical gold as an insurance policy. Do you buy or accumulate any physical silver at all?
    Cheers and thanks for your posts and updates. Very helpful indeed!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim Silver;

      I don't do much with silver Jim as it is too bulky. I do own some that I bought back in early 2002 but for insurance purposes I would rather own gold.

      If it looks as if inflation will become a serious problem down the road, I plan on obtaining some, in spite of the hassle of storing it, mainly because it will do well in an environment in which prices are soaring but for now, that is not in sight.

      As mentioned in some of my previous articles - while at some point the metals will forge long-term bottoms, that in and of itself does not mean that they will then immediately start soaring higher as so many of the gold and silver perma bulls wrongly assert. They could do exactly what they did for many years prior to 2001, they could essentially just meander sideways within a broad range.

      I do think one should own some however ( mainly gold) because it is insurance. Silver needs that inflationary scare however.

      Delete
    2. Understood. Thanks again for always responding.

      Cheers!

      Delete
  19. Mark,

    All the names you've listed, I have to admit, that I once looked up to...but I've concluded that Dan is the most reliable and trustworthy source for trading advice and Jim Rogers is the most reliable for long term views and perspectives on where the market is headed.

    Anyways, good job at exposing those guys for who they are, albeit it does seem repetitive. But perhaps, those that are still not convinced may still need to here it over and over again.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You may want to pay attention to Trader Garret too. He writes the "Market Pendulum" blog that is listed in Trader Dans blog list.

      http://marketpendulum.blogspot.nl/

      Delete
  20. The only reason to own gold is for keeping assets away from a SSN search. Owning gold as insurance is the most costly insurance policy one can possess. Having a currency outside the system is great. We will see gold bottom when we finally see gold holders en masse cancel their "insurance" policies.

    Hedge your gold. Simple....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I buy FOREVER STAMPS from the U.S. Post Office. They did well over the last decade.

      Are GOLD HOLDERS like Jim Sinclair even cancelling their insurance?

      I saw this coming when Ron Paul was needling Ben Bernanke in those hearings. The Federal Reserve has had the last laugh against precious metals now. They are forever a losing collection.

      Baseball cards may even be a better option.

      Delete
  21. New lows for the move in GLD and GDXJ, new highs for the Dow.

    Poor Richard Russell.

    "Load up on GDXJ and walk away" - 2 years ago

    New highs in both Dow Transports and DJIA

    "It's all lies, propaganda, and manipulation!!!", LOL.....

    ReplyDelete

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