"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, September 18, 2014

Gold Losing Ground in Other Assorted Currencies

Some of the long time readers will know that I like to check the charts for gold, when priced in terms of the other major currencies, to get a sense of how the metal is doing when viewed from outside of this country. Since it is an internationally traded commodity, it makes sense to compare its performance to see whether there is a general global trend in the metal or whether it is diverging from such a trend depending on which currency it might be priced in. This helps us assess overall global sentiment.

With the big Scotland vote in the headlines, I thought it might behoove us to see how the metal was faring in terms of the British Pound. I understand that more than a few Scots fear for their life's savings and were pulling money out of banks just in case. One would think that gold would be a likely recipient for some of that cash.

However, in looking at the price chart, it is rather lackluster ( and that is trying to be kind) as the metal has actually BEEN FALLING ahead of the vote. Not exactly a VOTE of confidence ( sorry, I could not resist the pun) in the metal from what I can see on the chart at this point.

There is chart support near 740 and on down in increments of 10 pounds. If the metal were to lose 720, it would constitute a breach of a major support level.

Here's Euro Gold - a bit better looking chart but is mainly because the Euro has been so weak. That being said, it is range bound and moving lower towards the bottom of the range near 920. For Euro gold to have any chance of a sharply higher move, it will have to clear 990 with the 1000 mark more preferable to get any serious excitement underway.

Here is Yen Gold:

Again, the chart is much better than that of Dollar priced gold but this is a function of how poorly the Yen has been performing on the Forex markets against the Dollar. Remember, the weaker a currency is against the Dollar, the more expensive gold is in terms of that currency. The stronger a currency is against the Dollar, the less expensive gold is in terms of that currency.

That is the reason that gold remains ABOVE the 2013 ending price for all three currencies. All have been weak against the Dollar this year. The British Pound had actually been holding its own against the Dollar until just recently.

Gold bulls can gain some bit of comfort from the above. At least the metal has not been falling apart across the global currency front.

I would keep an eye on the gold shares to see if they sense anything as far as a possible bottom. I do wish to remind the reader however, a market may bottom without beginning a sharp reversal to the upside. All it may do is meander sideways within a lower range.

Gold in US Dollar priced terms is in a short term downtrend but remains mired within that broad trading range I have been noting for some time now. In other words, on the Daily Chart it is TRENDING LOWER but on the intermediate time frame, it is still trading sideways above $1180. If $1180 goes for any reason, this market is in serious trouble.


  1. There is much nonsense talked about the supposed premium at which precious metals trade in Asian markets. /the price discrepancies which do arise from time to time tend to be structural rather than driven by supply & demand, and are typically referenced "loco" somewhere or other e.g. Dubai. This is an entirely natural and normal state of affairs which is made less transparent by - for instance - the existence of no less than 6 concurrent physical Silver exchanges in China

    If anyone is seriously troubled that Gold or Silver are more expensive in Asia - and remember, a retail jeweler will certainly charge a massive mark-up in whichever country you are - then I respectfully suggest that you look at these two online bullion dealers, both of which will price and sell their wares in USD (allowing easy comparison with the price in London and the USA) and will fill orders in any reasonable retail size without delaying settlement. I have used both firms in the recent past:

    Hong Kong: http://lpm.hk/eng.gold_cat.ews?buy_gold_cat.ewdgold_category=4&cat=Gold%20Bars

    Singapore: https://www.bullionstar.com/buy/gold

    (in both cases, make sure to select USD as the currency)

    I believe that you will find the prices which these two outfits charge to be astonishingly tight, and in each case a two-way Bid and Offer price is quoted e.g. http://lpm.hk/eng.buy_gold_detail.ews?buy_gold_cat.ewdgold_category=4&cat=Gold%20Bars&&buy_gold.ewdid=2705

    There is masses of retail gold available for purchase throughout Asia - not just jewellry, but bars and coins. As I noted recently, there are no less than 5 sales outlets for PAMP Gold bars in the tine West Mall in Bukit Batok, which is where we live in Singapore, and althought their prices might not be as competitive as the online stores, there is a steady trade going on, and no evidence whatsoever of any shortage. All of the pawn shops - and there are many in Singapore, far more than in Hong Kong - also quote two way prices for 999 and 916 Gold (but none of them will touch Silver except for commemorative coins such as the Lunar series from the Perth Mint : the 2015 series has just been released: https://www.bullionstar.com/buy/product/silver_lunar_1kg_2015 )

  2. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2014/09/silver-chart-by-request.html?showComment=1411046220007#c888771371404327267

    I can't help think that this "Mark" character may be Dan Norcini himself. Absolutely Ruthless and Relentless day after day against the KWN and gold-bug crowd. That Knife just goes in Deeper and Deeper by the day. Quite funny though as the posts always make me laugh.

    Dan, is this payback for the gold-bug hate mail that you get?

    1. Bob;

      I wish I could claim credit for Mark's wit but he and I are not the same.

    2. lol

      - Either Mark is a "paid basher" aka "evil short".

      - Or Mark is a decent human being that is sickened to the core about the gold prostitutes.

      In my opinion, If one were to say specifically where these types belong, it would be in the Inferno, Circle 8, Bolgia 8--false counselors

    3. You sound like a bitter person Jasper.

  3. Trader Dan, what's your take about the Chinese that they will have their own Gold trading exchange? What is that? Is that has an effect in the US market?

    1. sorry to jump in ahead of Dan, but its midnight and I want to go to bed

      IMHO the new Shanghai contract is no great deal - there are similar contracts being launched in the near future in both Singapore and Hong Kong, and I actually think its all about liquidity during Asian trading hours than any new mode of price discovery. Quoting the price in RMB is also not going to set the world on fire - the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange in Hong Kong have been trading one for the past 4 years and nobody in the mainstream investment world even knows about it http://cgse.com.hk/upload/news/original/376499692092.2011-10-17%20Press%20Release_ENG_CGSE.pdf


    2. TraderO7;

      There are exchanges in various places around the world. As countries modernize and grow, some want to start or enlarge their own domestic exchanges, which is perfectly normal, understandable and reasonable. After all, exchanges originally came into being to facilitate hedging for producers and allow a venue for risk takers ( speculators) to meet with risk aversion producers or users to conduct trade.

      Some in the perma gold bull camp claim that the creation of such exchanges will "free gold from the evil manipulators in the West" and allow it to seek a "fair and true price".

      I say "baloney"! Soybeans are traded elsewhere as are cattle as are lots of other commodities. Any huge difference in price would be pounded on by arbitragers whose buying or selling would quickly bring prices back into line with the rest of the globe.

      After all, if I could buy gold, say at the price of $1200 in the West, and sell it almost immediately at some exchange in China for some $20-$30 differential or more higher, I would do it all day long as it would be totally risk free and the closest thing I know to an eternal money producing mechanism.

      In other words, any discrepancies in price that might exist, will not last long.

      Those who keep promoting this sort of foolishness seem to believe that it is somehow Chinese buying of gold that sets the real price while the West is irrelevant. As said many times here, Asian buying of gold, whether by those in India or those in China or those anywhere in Asia, is one thing and is important but it is NOT A SUBSITUTE for Western-oriented investment demand. Until that comes back in a much bigger way, gold is going nowhere.

      I have no idea when such investment demand will come back and the simple fact is no one else does either, in spite of their arrogant, hubristic, egomaniacal claims otherwise. When it does, we will recognize it; Until it does, those who keep telling us that "any day now that big money will come back in and squeeze out all the shorts and give them a religious experience" are full of horse excrement.

    3. "Egomaniac sociopaths" "religious experience".

      Where have i heard these words before?

    4. Dan, I don't think you should pull your punches - tell it the way you see it........

      {wry smile}

    5. Zhang Lan;

      Every now and then I lose my self control and feel the need to expose quackery and hucksterism. Those who engage in that sort of dishonesty, are hurting naïve people who are trusting their entire financial future to those who have a vested interest in presenting a constant bullish spin to everything gold and gold related.
      We are talking about real people, with real dreams, and real hopes and aspirations for their future and for their children's futures. Those people have been left shipwrecked and ruined and that is inherently wrong.

      Those who are permanently bullish gold and constantly calling for huge price rallies "any day now" have inflicted a great deal of harm to others who deserve better and have left a wide swath of destruction in their path.

      Get some rest now.... we need you well rested so that your keen writing skills can entertain us all.

    6. Unfortunately your comment got me salivating, and sleep has been postponed for a few moments more

      I just fired up my trusty HP12C and did some numbers, which I think are quite illuminating

      Take the Hong Kong -based online bullion dealer I mentioned earlier - Lucious Precious Metals. If you look at their PAMP 100g bars they are offering a ridiculously tight Bid-Offer spread of only 1%


      Selling Price: US$4024.68
      Buyback: US$3985.72

      How can they do that and still make money? They must be shifting bucketloads of metal just to cover overheads

      but that isn't what caught my attention: they also quote the "spot" price on the same screen, and as I write it is showing $1227.7.

      If I convert oz into 100 grammes (i.e. multiply by 3.215074656862798) then that quote translates to US$3947.15 - implying that even the bid price is higher than "spot"

      This is what I mean by a "structural" price discrepancy - it's not driven by local supply & demand, it's just that Gold in Hong Kong trades slightly higher (3985.72/3947.15 = about 1%) than in New York. I believe this is due to

      a. the relative sizes of the Hong Kong and New York markets, (where there is far greater liquidity and trade volume)

      b. import costs, given that no Gold is actually mined or refined in Hong Kong

      c. local market dynamics, where scrap Gold is probably not as abundant as imported, and the effect of "recycling" is perhaps muted

      d. storage, hedging and security costs, where both the local (congested, mountainous) geography and non-economies of non-scale have an impact on price

      Whatever the causes, it is clear that Lucius is almost certainly not sourcing its metal at anything close to New York "spot" (actually, the COMEX Futures price) but that this is structural to the Hong Kong market, rather than driven by local supply and demand

      I bet if you analysed retail bullion prices in e.g. Dubai and Tokyo you'd find pretty much the same thing, and - although the FX conversion might introduce some noise - I bet the same holds true if you try to buy bars in Helsinki or Madrid or Tel Aviv or Auckland New Zealand (Australia is probably an exception due to e.g. the Perth Mint).

      I think this illustrates the point - firstly, there is no heavy mark-up due to scarcity or heavy demand in Asia (can you buy a 100 gramme bar at 1% over "spot"?), and secondly that the "structural" price anomalies associated with each specific "loco" are apparent from the above-Spot bid price

      OK, at this point I will have to give in and go and give HRH a high-impact workout. Goodnight.

    7. The worst of all is that these charlatans are millionaires with steady paychecks working under air conditioning while they dupe gullible working under the sun middle class.

    8. Is anyone here aware that gold has a stock to flow ratio that would take about 70 years to deplete ? And that all other commodities would have their stocks depleted in 70 days or less ?

      Gold futures market is a sham but it all takes time to play out

    9. M;

      The gold futures market is only a "sham" to gold cultists when it goes down, and not when it goes up.

      Whether you like it or not, and frankly the market could care less whether you do, it is every bit as real as the soybean market or the corn market or the hog market or the crude oil market or whatever. Every one of these markets experience wild swings in price, often disconnected from any near term fundamentals. That is the nature of the beast.

    10. Well then maybe in 70 years there will be failure to deliver.

      Re futures: for every short on margin there is a long on margin.

    11. The gold price seemed to have quite a serious effect on the marketability of govt bonds in the 70's. Or maybe that was just a coincidence ?

    12. The youngest western currency in the world (euro) has gold on line one on the asset side of their balance sheet.

      Why was the ECB getting all nostalgic in 2001 ?

      Also Basel 3 made gold a tier one asset last year. Not comex futures contracts but gold.

    13. M, you are wrong about the treatment of Gold under Basel III

      Please see s9.2 on page 14 of this document http://www.bis.org/bcbs/qis/biiiimplmonifaq_feb14.pdf and s34 (c) on page 8 of this paper http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs271.pdf where you will note that Gold is given an 85% "haircut" - i.e. as a marketable asset, it is assumed to have a liquidation value of only 15% of the current market price

      On page 15 of this document http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs270.pdf you will see that Gold derivatives are indeed covered by the Basel III rules, and on page 16 of this paper http://www.iibf.org.in/documents/BASEL-III.pdf you will note that Gold is assigned a risk-asset weighting of 100%

      It would perhaps be better for all concerned if you were to restrict your comments to topics which you actually know something about

    14. No comment about gold being on line one of the ECB balance sheet ?

    15. M

      what point are you trying to make? Nobody is denying that Gold is an important Asset class and that Banks (Central and otherwise) hold loads of it. So what? My name is Andrew, which begins with first letter in the alphabet - does that mean that I should always be first in the queue or given preferential treatment

      You are making a fool of yourself

    16. Yes the gold chart in 70s somewhat similar nowadays

  4. Zhang Lan.......something to dream about. They are showing off an approx 15mil diamond in Hong Kong which will be going on auction soon.

    1. PCB says he still loves me, so I'm holding out for a decent-sized rock rather than a trivial piece of glass like that one

      (its our 5th wedding anniversary next month)

    2. Marriage is a 3-ring Circus

      1. Engagement Ring
      2. Wedding Ring
      3. Suffer-Ring

  5. DeBeer's = Master Psychologists, who post WW2 convinced returning American G.I.s that there was something special and rare about diamonds. You gotta tip your hat to them.

    1. Yep. Times are a changing. There isn't gold at the end of the rainbow. Its US treasuries.

  6. DeBeers, my mistake; reading too much Mr. Spellcheck lately

  7. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cnbc-anchor-calls-fed-hater-155231593.html

    Here is another example of a lame talking head and her unprofessional, confrontational, and simplistic attack on a guest, as opposed to thoughtfully interviewing him. Fleckenstein is a regular on kwn, but don't hold that against him, as he admittedly missed the last 67 months, BUT, and this is what a lot of people do not get and that is that he did not LOSE. He has been idling for the most part, waiting to come back and fight another day, as far as I can tell.

    What I can confidently say is that it is no wonder that msnbc, cnn, and fox have about as much chance of regaining the viewers they have lost over the years, as a fart in a windstorm. Nothing more here, move along.

    1. But of course you realize CNBC is nothing more than an infomercial for Wall St.


      Some heavyweights out there are cautious with good reason not to say we can't blow-off top in stocks. And as much as I don't like the guy old man (84) Warren Buffett is sitting on $55B in cash right now...

    2. Warren always sits on 50 billion cash. Its his minimum number.

    3. Do you all know the greatest secret of all why the Oracle holds such a large position in American Express?

    4. I think fleckenstein is one of the most level-headed individuals to appear in KWN.

  8. GLD is flat out becoming an utterly horrific investment vehicle.

    Retail stocks, however, as represented by XRT or XLY, are surging to world record highs in virtually every currency around the world.

    As I reported earlier, the consumer has never been stronger.

    1. Yes but.
      I am concerned about the weak earnings of some individual retail stocks. Maybe they are just dogs.

  9. Dan, all:

    Can I get perspective not from "Trader" Dan, but "Security" Dan?

    If you were to write a blog post right now to a 20 something (I am not!) who is just getting started in their career and investing, how do you portray gold to them as an investment/security/etc vehicle?

    When I started investing, in ~1990, the thought of putting money in precious metals never entered my mind. My mindset was nearly 100% stocks.

    And in the media/reporting, it generally remains the same -- what is reported day after day, hour after hour? DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq, and occasionally the 10/30 years yields, oil prices, and only gold if there had been a big up or down move.

    So what do you tell that ~20 year old about gold and the reasons to hold it and how much they might consider holding?



    1. Cortopassi:

      Security Dan says to diversify. Young guys have the luxury of buying a basket of stocks and holding onto them until retirement whereas those closer to retirement need security and not be exposed to the wild vagaries of the stock market. That is the problem that the fed has created with these ultra low interest rates. they punish the guys who made all the wealth and are trying to find somewhere safe to invest it and still obtain a decent yield.

      I do believe that gold is a valid part of any investment portfolio, young or old. It is insurance and should be treated as such. Remember however, it pays no yield and therefore is a dead asset in that capacity. IT depends entirely on capital gains which means that it needs currency turmoil, geopolitical turmoil, etc., to push it into a strong bull market.

      A young guy still needs to learn how to properly manage his portfolio however. Buying puts, shorting stock index futures, etc at appropriate times are ways to hedge it. Also various sectors will fall into and then out of favor. One needs to account for that.

    2. PCB's daughter is 18

      the lessons we have drilled into her are

      - Nobody owes you a living

      - You can't get rich quick, and if you do, carrying on that way will get you poor quick too

      - Diversification is the only free portfolio hedge

      - Your biggest asset is the decision when to quit

      - Your biggest liability is impatience

      - Memorise Rudyard Kipling's poem "If" http://www.poetryfoundation.org/poem/175772

      - Remember your Step Mother's birthday present

  10. Age is irrelevant. You hold gold as insurance the same way an "older" person might. If I were you I would review all of Dan's past remarks regarding the yellow metal on this blog. There are "nuggets" of priceless information on gold and other assets as well as other useful information on the comment chains...

  11. CBOT grain market days of the week:
    Massacre Monday
    Turn-Down Tuesday
    Washout Wednesday
    Titanic Thursday
    Free Fallin' Friday

    saw blurbs about those holding gold in ukraine being saved, as their currency tanked.
    mcclellan recently did euro-gold:

    NIKK at nite certainly liked the weak yen last nite, but hang seng fell to 8 week lows (hmmm look at copper giving it all back)

    strikes look like they are in play with op-ex friday, such as QQQ 100 SPX-SPY 2000-200... TLT GLD SPY may be strike bound as well.


  12. Dan, you honestly expect that if Scots pulled money out of the banks and bought gold that it would have anything to do with the price in pounds at all?

    1. Matt;

      Yes, I HONESTLY do.

      If you don't agree with that view, that is fine.

      It is my view based on the idea that where demand increases, price increases given a constant supply.

    2. Do you mean the Scots would be buying physical gold, or taking their cash and speculating in the futures markets? Would you not agree that either way, those are two different types of demand on the market?

  13. AArrgh!!
    It's the third time that I miss the order of one or two pips.
    Copper, WTI and now EUR USD.
    I'm going to TILT soon :(
    See arnie, it's not that easy :)


    1. You could throw grains of sand on the street and flowers would grow. there.

    2. Hubert, I assume you missed covering the Euro? Not to worry my friend, unless I am completely wrong, that dog can not rally more than 200 pts off today's lows. If I am right, we end up on an outside yearly and lower close; unabashedly a very strong bearish statement.

  14. When LTCM blew up partly cuz they were short gold , It must have been a coincidence that Gordon Brown dumped 400 ton of the UK gold at the same time too.

    1. M;

      Who cares? That has NOTHING to do with current sentiment in gold. One trades or invests with an eye to the future; not to the past.

      Sentiment now is against gold in the West. It will eventually change but the conditions must be right for that to occur. Until it does, no amount of historical references, theories, etc, means a single thing.

    2. "One trades or invests with an eye to the future; not to the past."

      Well said

    3. Ok well.. When does a guy get in ? There is only one financial asset that is underpriced on all levels right now. It's gold. I want to ride the future bull market

    4. Good for you, M

      "When does a guy get in?"

      Ideally, not during a bear phase in the market. The future can be a distressingly long time coming, and it really doesn't care tuppence whether you are impatient or not.

      And to be frank, Gold is not underpriced right now: it's price is what it is, on display for all to see. It may, on the other hand, be undervalued, but you'd be well to remember Oscar Wilde's quote on that topic:

      “What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.

      And a sentimentalist, my dear Darlington, is a man who sees an absurd value in everything, and doesn't know the market place of any single thing.”


      Cynicism beats sentimentalism every day of the week, and gambling only pays while you're winning

    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    6. and another quote from his book "Lady Windermere's Fan" is that

      It is absurd to divide people into good and bad. People are either charming or tedious.

    7. Relative to the performance of all other financial assets, gold is undervalued. Greek bonds, junk bonds, HY credit, DOW, S and P , US debt, Italian bonds ect ect ect. Its undervalued for a financial asset.

      So there will be a time to get in and the 70's didn't offer very much time at all. It whipsawed almost everyone it could. The bears in the 60's ate losses from 35 to 200. Then the bulls ate it from 200 to 100, then the bears ate it again from 100 to 800.

      Interest rates were equally low for the move in the 60's as they are now. Well... they are way worse now. But we don't want to talk fundamentals here (seriously)Don't expect some perfect time to move in or call a bottom

    8. M,

      LTCM blew up in September 1998

      Gordon Brown's decision to sell UK Gold reserves was announced in May 1999

      Please refer to this article in the FT:

      "High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/e9378c6c-b0b8-11df-8c04-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3Diht4nrR

      The recent rumours of manipulation first arose in 1998, following the collapse of the hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). One tale sent into cyberspace by Gata was that LTCM was short of more than 400 tonnes of gold at the time of its implosion. Gata questioned, too, whether the gold auctions the Bank of England arranged in the wake of that collapse were orchestrated to aid bullion banks’ efforts to cover gold short positions. LTCM, however, denied the allegations.

      LTCM’s former lawyer James Rickards later told the Financial Times: “Gata raised this in 1998 out of thin air. It fitted their paradigm that central banks always and everywhere manipulate the gold market. As counsel, I wrote a letter including a sworn affidavit from a principal, rejecting the allegations and demanding a retraction. They printed the letter as ‘proof’ of the gold conspiracy. I gave up at that point because I realised they were not persuaded by evidence and I did not want to engage further.”


      Really, a little research goes a long way, and would perhaps help to dispel the perception that you are a blithering idiot

    9. M;

      Undervalued? according to whom? You?

      Well, that is enough for me to now accept that "fact".

      Maybe we can help you here but maybe we cannot. I am leaning toward the latter.

      You will never be successful in trading or investing UNTIL you understand that the market sets the value; not you nor anyone else.

      Right now gold is PERFECTLY valued. If it were too cheap, it would go higher. If it were too expensive it would move lower.

      Bullhead stubbornness joined with an inability to accept one's limitations and learn from others is the mark of someone doomed to fail at EVERY venture in life.

      It is one thing to be strong in convictions - it is another to be a blind fool.

    10. Undervalued compared to the rise in every other financial specific asset. Like Italian or Greek bonds. Common stock in Greek banks, common Fanny or Freddie stock. Any financial garbage anyone can dream up.

      Plus the price is below the cost of production as we can see by the mining companies like Eldorado gold cant make money with their all in cost at $750.

      And nothing is perfectly valued. The Fed arbitrarily sets interest rates. This is no conspiracy. So with that in mind, nothing is perfectly valued.

    11. M,

      If you are not an agent of Turdville, General birthday SaintClair, or follower of Peter the Shill, then maybe the problem has to do with golden-colored lenses.

      Seriously though…I am not a pro but I can tell you from where am watching things, Trader Dan’s comments and charts on the metals is the best I have found and I have been in search mode since 2008.

    12. This comment has been removed by the author.

    13. M;

      I will leave you to your delusions and your appalling ignorance of markets. Some people are simply are incapable of learning. You are one of them.'

      Good riddance.

      I will ask you to stop filling this blog with this sort of inane drivel and to go elsewhere where you can find other blockheaded gold cult members to preach to.

      and lastly, get some psychological help.

    14. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  15. Dan, when you get a chance...thanks



  16. New closing lows for GLD and GDX

    New closing highs for SPY and DIA

    Looks like the Russians and those so-called entities in the "East" are dumping gold and buying U.S. stocks.

    Way to go boys!!

    1. Move down on HUI:GOLD doesn't bode well for Gold's performance to close the week.

  17. http://www.elliottwavetechnology.com/2014/09/almost-time-to-backup-truck-and-load-up.html

    Silver Elliotts...1,2,3 down...1,2,3 down...see?

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  18. Just checked KWN for the first time in quite awhile.
    Wow...a 400 day moving average gold chart???

    Talk about extend and pretend....


    At this rate KWN will start using a guest fortune teller who uses a ouiji board to predict prices and timelines.

    1. frankly, I think this is nonsense and the mythical "David P (out of Europe)" knows no more about "the type of charts that the big banks follow closely, as well as big money and savvy professionals" than I know about why the cables behind my TV tie themselves in knots without any apparent human intervention

      However, each to his own, and let's see; if that hotherto-unknown 400 day MA is breached, no doubt Eric will concede that the secular (as if he knows what that means) bull market in Gold is finally over.

      Frankly, I'm not holding my breath, and I fully expect to see future references on KWN to a 412.37-day Moving average, or a Planetary Harmonics Oscillator based on the 17 1/4-year cycles of the Rings Around Uranus or something. It's all rubbish and gobbledygook, but let them have their innocent fun

      It's 8:33 and I have to get off pretty soon, but I couldn't help scratching my head about that Hong Kong bullion dealer making only $39 on each 100 grammes of Gold it sells and then buys back. To make commercial sense as a business, they surely need to gross at least $750,000 a year, and that corresponds to shifting at least 19,400 x 100 gramme bars - almost 2 tons of metal a year.

      That is one hell of a business model

      And in parting, here is my recommendation for a new guest speaker on KWN: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29251704

    2. Guys, it was actually an absurd 400 WEEK MA...but who's counting?

    3. Thanks for the clarification Rico.

    4. to all;

      I have been trading for well a quarter of a century and not once in all that time, in my study and application of technical analysis, have I ever heard of anyone, anywhere, refer to a 400 week moving average.

      This ranks up there with one of the most pathetic, desperate ploys I have ever seen to justify a bullish view on gold. Absolutely pathetic.

    5. Didnt Armstrong employ a 400 year moving average?


  19. I would have thought with the USD down almost half a point that would have put a little oomph under gold, but not really. How is GDXJ looking from a chart perspective? Anyone know the support/resistance levels?

    1. The weakness in gold has been amazing lately - the miners looked ready for a bounce a couple times in anticipation of a move in bullion but turned down with the metal.

      Of course that can change in the blink of an eye but what would be the catalyst at this point?

    2. Hubert, I have wonderful and special news for you. Your buddy, Mr. Spellcheck now is making his 200 page gold report available to the public in pdf form. Me, I am just a dumb sonofabitch because I just can not get my mind around why it takes 200 pages for him to deliver Socrates' verdict for the yellow metal.

  20. Mark.
    Just to tame your enthusiasm. Do you remember posting a few months ago that you'd decided that the bottom was definitely in for the miners?? I remember it well. Not quite so cocky eh?

    1. The old believe everything; the middle-aged suspect everything; the young know everything.






  22. Anybody have any scuttlebutt on Scotland? I know it's still early for results to be officially released???

    1. Armstrong is sending out continuous updates on Scotland...

  23. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. Deep-fried Mars Bars and IRN-Bru open Limit Down


      Scottish Life Expectancy / Mortality Options experience 10-sigma gap down

      Short Scottish Pharma & Healthcare stocks / Long Body-bags and Bespoke Black Suit retailers

  24. Jasper, Uncle Warren long ago figured out the float game as regards American Express travelers checks. Seems that I forget, a couple weeks go upon their return from vacation that travelers take before they final either redeem or whatever with their unused checks. He loves angles like that. He also understands the insurance and reinsurance businesses better than anybody on earth. Having said that, he did need a little help on his AIG issues a few years ago, but that of course is another long since buried story.

    Drones will ultimately turn the transport and insurance industries absolutely inside out as compared to today. That is all.

  25. British pound extends gains as first results come in

    By Michael Kitchen
    Published: Sept 18, 2014 8:59 p.m. ET

    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The British pound GBPUSD, +0.83% extended its gains late Thursday after the first set of results from the Scottish independence referendum were reportedly in favor of staying in the U.K. The pound rose to $1.6499, gaining a full U.S. cent over the course of just a few hours, with a sharp rally after news organizations said that results from Clackmannanshire, the first of 32 regions to report, had chosen in favor of the union by a 54-46 margin. Clackmannanshire represents just under 1% of the total vote, Reuters said. The result matched the findings of a YouGov poll, which suggested a final Scotland-wide 54-46 result to stay in the U.K., prompting gains for sterling some 90 minutes earlier. Initial vote results were expected to continue to come in through the evening, with the final tally due to be announced around 7 a.m. local time Friday, or 2 a.m. U.S. Eastern.


  26. Replies
    1. So Yes would have been better, no?

    2. I don't do politics - I have a wife to handle that kind of thing

      We have an agreement in out household: Lan gets to have the opinions*** and the handbags, I get to go sailing and fishing.

      *** Please be reassured, she was rigorously vetted and underwent professional extensive training before being let loose with these in public

    3. or "extensive professional" if I am paying attention to what I am typing

  27. Live radio coverage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04hgskl

    1. Post; You and Lan are quite the pistols!

    2. There's no point in asking - you'll get no reply


    3. Upon second thoughts, I prefer this one


  28. I officially went on record two days ago.

    That I was "dead wrong" about a potential vicious short squeeze in gold and silver.

    I made a prediction.

    And 48 hours later, I admitted that I was wrong and stated so publicly.

  29. Dan can you please post a GBP/USD chart?


    1. http://www.bbc.com/news/business/market_data/currency/11/12/twelve_month.stm

  30. Dan is the $gold:$usd index ratio chart relevant to look at?

    Looks like 13 to 14 is a decent band of support back to early 2010. Has the character as the charts posted today by Dan... Depending on where the dollar index is (85-90) puts gold at the 1180 area to hold the 13-14 range.

    Noticed CLX4 has established a pretty well developed downtrend channel from the mid June high of $104. The price bounced off the upper side of the channel today at around 93.60. The last couple years WTI has been weak this time of year following the summer driving season into October. crude seemed to decouple with gold today with weakness as gold rallied.

    The HUI price is about ready to touch the bottom side of a compression triangle that has formed since the beginning of the year at 210. Will be interesting to see if "this" line holds....

    If I could post these charts I would!
    Good trading to all..

  31. M, you fell completely in love with gold and your gold investment.
    Your ears, eyes, brains are blinded by that.
    You are totally unable to listen, to think out of the box you've created.
    All you do is repeat your arguments again and again, while nearly each of them is being proven wrong by other contributors here.
    I don't know how old you are. Hope you are a young 20 year old and your losses will eventually teach you a hard lesson.
    You don't know what you're talking about, but you are convinced you do.
    You refuse to answer or listen to those who could bring a bit of light or make you change your mind a bit.
    Why are you here?
    Do you really think you are going to convince any of them eventually?
    Good luck,

  32. Careful for a short term bounce / short squeeze on gold.
    Bullish divergence is confirmed on the 4h time unit.
    Silver is holding its ground at 18.50.
    Eur Usd needs a breather upwards.
    Breaking through 1240 area didn't lead to a waterfall collapse on prices.

    My longer term targets are unchanged, but I'm ready for a short term bounce.

    1. Using Demark sequencing , it is due to be up but better stay away

  33. Steve,
    You post on this blog everyday, and everyday you make negative comments about Martin Armstrong. As iron is eaten by rust, so are the envious consumed by envy.

    1. Take a shot at Sinclair for a change!

    2. Mr. Spellcheck, consultant to CB's and hedge funds worldwide makes calls on everything under the sun and you want to hitch your wagon to that star? Good luck on all his 2032.75 calls, and on and on and on.....zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  34. Dear Santa Claus,

    Please make EUR USD reach 1.3280 by the end of next week, so that I can short it right after its short squeeze under its ema15 / top of resistance.
    I know, it's much to ask and would be too good to be true :)

    Note : T.A can be stupid simple. Start tracing a descending channel and follow it to find potential bouncing areas. Works with Eur Usd for the moment. The slope of the channel is exactly the same as during the last bearish trend, few years ago.


  35. On a Monthly chart, Gold already breakout, next target 1000$

  36. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  37. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    1. Hey Indian Parasites; Are morality and integrity unknown in your part of the world?

  38. Martin Armstrong is a complete joke.

    However, gotta hand it to the guy. He's a pro at self-aggrandizement and promotion. I'm sure he's making a fortune selling his "know it all" newsletters.

    And what happened to Charles Nenner? He was absolutely confident that the lows in gold were in. He was a "rock star" on CNBC and Bloomberg for awhile, now he's disappeared.

    One guy who was 100% correct: Laszlo Birinyi, who predicted a boner run in the S & P 500 which would last for years. So far, he's been spot on after being mocked and ridiculed by Zero Hedge.

  39. Yamana Gold looks like its going BK.

    Now under $7.00, wow.....

    1. Mr. Market doesn't seem to like the Osisko takeover too much + nothing like breaking 52k low to inspire new selling.

  40. Silver now blowing out to fresh, 4-yr. lows

    1. Weekly close below $18.50 not good for Silver lovers...

  41. I love the way the hillbillies on the PM sites love to proclaim their erstwhile buy points, then when the price gets down there, they hem and haw about how they're now waiting for lower prices, the "final washout", etc.

    Even the stackers aren't stacking, but, you know, hey, remember...Keep Stackin'! What a pathetic, completely avoidable bloodbath...

    1. Yep, it's almost startling to see the same knee jerk responses over and over.

      The lower the price keeps falling and that trend stays intact the more disingenuous the shills are in fact.
      It's one thing to be a PM newb and just starting out from scratch once you've entered the KWN Zone because you don't know any better.

      But it's another thing entirely when the "veteran" PM cheerleaders continue to fart out the same stale views in the face of what we've witnessed the past 2-3 years.

      It's hard for me to comprehend how some people absolutely need to be right and when they're wrong they invent reasons to blame why they weren't proven right.

  42. Even though most of us expected to see silver hit the 17 handle it still provided me a mini "Wow!" moment watching it happen on the charts.
    It seems as though gold's Wow moment can't be too far off at this point.

    The FX market seems to be rebalancing in a major way and the Scotland vote seems like it's provided the pivot point for the USD to breach 85 and 110 in the Yen sooner then I thought possible.

    Bad day to be a silver or gold fever bug. If the action in the metals lately (and the last 2-3 years) doesn't have you wondering about the "expert advice" you've been mesmerized by then nothing will.

    I want to see sub 1180 at this point. Why not?

  43. Beware Mondays! Especially silver holders. Not saying next Monday but be alert...



    27.40 April 12 Friday
    23.54 April 15 Monday

    Down 14%


    32.90 Sep 23 Friday
    28.16 Sep 26 Monday

    Down 14%

    An important long-term Gold channel has been violated to the downside as well.


  44. Speaking of bloodbaths, the grains continue to implode. I think this all augurs an epic long trade at some point, but we had an 8 handle on beans only four years ago, and with this size crop, I can't believe that isn't again in the cards, before there's any hope of a bottom (2 handle on corn, as well)

  45. Let's face it, Boys & Girls - this is not looking good, izzit....

    Looking at the charts I simply haven't a clue where the bottom is - presumably some round number like $10 or $1000

    It's certainly not yet time to panic and rush for the exits, but, My Oh My, I think some sober reappraisal of "the fundamentals" is surely now due

    - Geopolitics can't do it (Ukraine, Syraq, Gaza)

    - Ebola (and the attendant 3,000 troops) can't lift it

    - Asian retail demand seems to have no effect

    - "The warehouses are empty / paper promises / infinite leverage makes no difference

    - QE, higher interest rates, collapsing dollar - all quaint memories

    - Bubble this, bubble that, ponzi all night long - ain't gonna do ya no good

    So, we are looking into the abyss

    (and I, as a hobby activity, will be trolling "The Usual Suspect" websites looking for even the slightest inkling of contrition of humility: if I find it, I swear to Gold I'll sing the author's praises loud and clear. But don't hold your breath)

    1. Well, first out of the blocks is Bron, who gets points for being innately modest and reasonable, but for the time being remains curiously confident (if perhaps not necessarily optimistic) http://goldchat.blogspot.sg/2014/09/gold-bottoming.html

      Goldcore is still firmly in "keep stackin'" mode http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-silver-buyers-keep-stacking-and-demand-higher-despite-falling-prices.aspx?article=5828460360H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Mark+O%27Byrne

      Chris Powell is still calling for "The Bad Guys" to be beaten http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-bad-guys-will-be-beaten--probably-by-themselves.aspx?article=5827129192H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Chris+Powell

      so no sign of either head scratching or penance just yet

    2. Zhang Lan, I have a slightly different take, that is, "the memes justify the ends." Gold & silver are falling because they are falling & fundamentals such as geopolitics won't affect price. That meme is dead--the meme that is alive now is Central Bank Omnipotence. One day in the future (after the current crop of hucksters is dead (40 year vets must be in their late 60s to mid 70s) or forgotten, gold will be in a bull market again and there will be a rationale that describes the uptrend events rather than predicting it.

    3. well, I sense we are not too far apart there, and PCB and I are both avid readers of Ben Hunt's work at www.epsilontheory.com

      however, that having been said, the Central Bank meme was around in August too, and it didn't trash Gold then, so why now? Something different has happened - whether it's the "blue eyed savages" delayed reaction, or the lightening-up of the Ukraine situation, or the imminent end of the Taper I have no idea, but something has tipped this market over the edge, and I can't see the bottom right now

    4. Good luck finding some humility out there.
      The more delusional one's are doubling down and blaming cartel monkeys etc and in full "I told you so" mode.

      Welcome To The Grand Delusion.

    5. "something has tipped this market over the edge, and I can't see the bottom right now"
      Maybe a perspective of a crash of the European economy? (slow down of Germany, affected by sanctions, Poland with shut off gas this winter, escalation of sanctions as a trend, winter coming, France downgraded again, and unable to respect its commitments in terms of deficit, Scotland referendum showing how split the population is, etc...).

    6. Lan:

      Reappraisal of the "fundamentals" is not possible, because they are too intertwined with fear, greed, bias, politics, and ego. This is why "fundamentals" are not to be trusted, and certainly not something to bet the farm on.

      DPH: 2-3 years? How about 40+ years? Talk about a "Grand Illusion". I was sucked in myself for quite a long time. But I woke up. Not saying it was easy, but Losing Money is a powerful persuader. Eventually. (insert image of two by four to the head here)

    7. I hear ya' on that.
      You've been at it for awhile and have experienced more of the up's and downs and the PM "experts" then I have.

      (btw...nice subaru ;-)

  46. Things have gone fast and it's friday.

    - New target on EUR USD down from 1.3830 to 1.38 (bottom of the downside channel on the weekly time unit next week, but theoretical target is 1.2730 i.e next fibonacci level, with the inf bollinger band in this area as well and horizontal. 1.28 is close enough that I'm happy to get out from there)

    - gold : still and always short since gold broke and closed below 1238.
    - silver : I'm short as well since 18.50 became resistance, and we broke through 18.30 furiously. My target for silver longer term is now under 16.80 $, probably 16 $, I'll watch better this weekend.

    This is a sad day for all the gold bugs and precious metals believers. They will be hard pressed not to sell all their metals in a panic for now on.
    So, M, when was the last time you reinforced your position in precious metals? At 19 $ silver and 1250 $ gold? How big is your line now? How deep are your pockets? Will you have any money left to buy more when gold and silver are even lower? Why do you try to catch a falling knife? Learn.

    1. the lesson which people like M will never learn is that the skill lies not in getting lucky and "calling the bottom", but in having the self discipline to wait until a clear trend emerges.

      there is significant weakness at the moment, and it could well continue down another $3 - 4 for Silver and $50 - 100 for Gold, but there is also slight unease that the 1180 bottom in Gold is continuing to offer some (psychological) support

      frankly, I think the only safe thing to do is either sit on your hands all weekend, or switch the laptop off and go do some gardening or paint the fence or even - perish the thought - go and reacquaint yourself with friends & family. There really is more to life than this claptrap

  47. GOLD.
    My target on the downside for gold starts from 1290.
    MACD is not crossing upwards, and broke its propagation axis recently (bearish).
    Chart :

    What happened to Silver and Gold may soon happen to Copper if its inf bollinger band gives way. The strong area to watch is imho 305.50 for copper. It meets bollinger band, but also median of the Andrew's pitchfork which gave perfect bouncing points up to now (and its mhl sup perfect selling points as well). If it gives way, I can only see tha the mlh inf of the pitchfork will cross the lows of copper near 290 very soon. Watch out.

    Chart :

    1. target gold 1190 not 1290 of course.

    2. 3 year descending triangle in Copper coming to conclusion...

    3. P.S : as you see, Copper's MACD is STILL above its propagation axis. But may break it down as well, which could confirm a move through 305.5 area.

  48. EVERYTHING CATASTROPHIC that King World News predicted over the last 12 months is now happening and even accelerating.

    In the gold and silver mining sector.

  49. What we are seeing is so heartbreaking for the pm longs. I only have a full passive hedge, because I keep waiting for a bounce. It just never comes. Today officially begins the.final capitulation phase down to 1000. Wow....

  50. For M, the stackers, and pm bloggers, I can only say this: Didn't your parents tell you that you can't polish a turd?

  51. M : "When does a guy get in ? There is only one financial asset that is underpriced on all levels right now. It's gold. I want to ride the future bull market"

    I think what you are riding right now is a bear market. Interesting, wanting to buy a bear market for sure, in order to maybe be in the next bull market. Hmm...I guess you did that at 1900 $ as well, then? And this could be the beginning of a new major leg down for gold if 1180 doesn't hold, and I'm afraid there is a real possibility it doesn't. Then you'll for sure ride a nice strong BEAR market. I don't know about anything else. Suit yourself. It's really sad to see someone self destruct as you do.

  52. Technically gold is not in a bear market. This bull run will probably last the same time frame a real bear market lasted before this run started back around year 2000. Like the world's longest bull run in gold is occurring but with this correction that is not all that surprising when there a gap to fill around $1,000 with maybe an overshoot down lasting a couple of months.

    I don't remember the static low in gold to break to technically declare a bear market and the bull over but is in the $600s, the dynamic rising bottom trend line on the long term gold chart being broken would only be a warning that $600 could fall.

    Spot gold final low of $900 or so would be a buy signal but I prefer silver this next trip up. And gold should take a dump as there are to many other areas to make money for the short term so people will exit gold creating the final low. Later on, the paper currencies will succumb to a loss of confidence as debt loads can no longer be manipulated and defaults start in earnest or causing worse events.

    1. anonymous;

      Technically gold IS in a bear market. the definition of a bear market is a fall in price more than 20% from the peak.

      Do the math.

      Gold has been in a bear market ever since it fell below key chart support at $1530-$1525. Arguing with a trend never makes one the least bit of money.

    2. TD, did you make that 20% percentage up to satisfy your charting? Cause it doesn't follow fibs from a long term starting point.

      Until gold takes out its launch point, it is in a severe correction at best and that gap cannot be ignored esp. as the chart now wants to approach it. Bear markets don't bounce to new highs when a correction has finished. Prices fall through the floor and meander for decades during bear markets. We will soon see within 6 months is my guess.

    3. anonymous;

      Any person the least bit skilled or proficient in technical analysis knows and understands that ANY MARKET that falls more than 20% off its peak price is considered to be in a bear market, especially if the trending indicators are indicating it is trending lower.

      That is not open to dispute.

      Here is a news flash for you - if the S&P 500 were to fall below 1600, every analyst out there who has the least bit of knowledge or understanding of TA will call it a bear market.

      What NEW HIGH are you even talking about? You and I are not looking at the same chart. The metal peaked above $1900 and has collapsed into bear market territory without making a new high anywhere once it broke $1535 and it is now threatening to break out of the bottom of a range on the intermediate chart.

      Good grief - please don't tell me you are another one of these whacky gold perma bulls, and a member of the gold cult.

      At this point, you people can believe whatever the hell you want to if it makes you feel better. How very sad and utterly tragic.

    4. Sure the trend is down but doesn't make it a bear market in the long term. What do you say if gold soon falls below $600? The bear market is over? Not much room in a real bear market since it is bouncing along the bottom, for years.

      I'm talking about attaining new all time highs after this gold spot correction is over. So far the chart still says it is entirely possible.

      The lamest argument I heard from you lately about the S&P or the DOW. You know damn well they reweight for the allusion of investing for the long term. With China's IPOs, 1.3 billion people can't be wrong, can only go up. Out with the bad and in with the good weightings. GE is the only remaining original stock listing on the DOW and GE has morphed into a Japanese company.

      Maybe it is all semantics: bear, bull, trends, corrections....

    5. This is not a correction its a cyclical 3 year and counting bearmarket.

      Whether we are still in a secular bullmarket remains to be seen.

      The lamest argument I heard from you defending your ignorance is call8ng it "just semantics".

      Finally, why are all the gold bugs such unpleasant people, rather then showing some humility you guys invariably resort to disrespectfull and insulting language.

    6. PMs will go down until more $ are buying than selling.
      Stocks will go up as long as more $ are buying than selling.

      Are the other terms are just ways of defining why, maybe.

  53. Don't misquote to further your own perceptions, it very misleading or 'maybe' work on your comprehension skills.

    Semantics is the proper term, could mean: connotation, definition, denotation, explication, exposition, interpretation (and others).

    I see a gap fill coming on the long term gold chart but so what? Need capitulation to find a bottom.


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