"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

New Crop Beans Set New Low

Excellent growing weather for the month of August ( ample rains and no excessive hot temps) are leading to ideal finishing conditions for the bean crop. Reports from the field indicate a big crop which is probably going to get bigger as USDA revises its regular updates as we move closer into the harvest season.

It has been the same old story about tight carryover stocks from the 2013-2014 crop that has kept this market supported but even that now appears to be giving way to reality.

Today's move lower in the November contract has set a new low for this extended bear market not only in terms of the low made but also the closing price.

At this stage, bulls have little to bolster their argument for higher prices except to pray for an early September hard freeze.

Is that possible? Sure it is - anything is possible when one talks about weather but farmers with new crop who have not secured anything in the way of downside price protection are literally playing with fire at this point.

Today's FOMC minutes definitely took on a more hawkish tone with even the doves moving more to the center. That is how it should be when a consensus begins to slowly emerge among those with some differing opinions. More and more it is looking as if the Fed is going to be moving on the interest rate front sooner rather than later. Again, this is not to suggest that we are going to see longer term interest rates spike; what it means is that barring any sort of economic downturn, these ultra low rates are a thing of the past at this point. So enjoy them while you can.

Geopolitical events could still induce safe haven flows into bonds and that will work to lessen any severe upside rate movements but it does appear at this point as if the die is cast.

I came away from reading those FOMC minutes with the view that the Fed is anxious to get back to a more normal monetary policy stance.

If this is indeed true, it is hard to make the case for a weaker Dollar given the weakness in the Euro Zone and in Japan when contrasting the overall economic footing of the three respective zones.

In such an environment, commodity prices are going to struggle as an asset class. Individual markets will then have to rely on their own specific set of fundamentals to move higher, but that is how it should be. These macro plays where hedge funds and other large investors buy blindly across the entire gamut of commodity markets tend to greatly distort prices. That eventually leads to an oversupply as those sectors respond to the higher (speculative induced) prices by increasing production. The result is a sort of Boom/Bust cycle that takes place. I think we are seeing some of that right now.


  1. old timers said 'take august off, it's horribly thin out there' ...copper had that look today.
    so if it's thin it would be hard to change any trends in anything, nobody is risking enough money to effect a turn.

    the long bond sure didn't react to the fomc minutes, only closing down a couple ticks...foreigners have to buy the us dollars to then buy our bonds.. DX and ZB so happy together on geo-political risk.
    europe close to recession and easing predicted..EC about 58% of DX.

    Pro-Exporter looking for CZ/SX lows of $3.25-3.50/$9.50-10.00 respectively. Wheat market likely close to seasonal lows they say. stats-can tomorrow can move the wheat.


    1. 77; Pro Farmer is ag based and thus always looking for the bull case; I am looking for 290 CZ and 750 SX at least. Double digit beans are going to be looked back on next year as a thing of the past. Arg and Brz getting ready to plant even more very soon. They have no choice.

  2. Thanks TD. Will also be interesting to see what Jackson Hole adds to the release from today. PS: With all the "global warming", a Sept freeze would be surprising.

  3. Trinity, the global warming or climate change or whatever is the same as in the 70's when the story was the world was going to freeze next week. It is all political and arrogant speak by the ptb to get into your pocketbook, and that is the truth, plain and simple.

    1. I hear you Steve... And algore has profited nicely in the process as he fuels up his jet.

  4. "The Current Crash" in the CRB Index is creating a human tragedy of "Epic Proportions" for money manglers such as Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff, Stephen Leeb, Egon Von Greyerz, etc.

    Those guys must be getting totally hammered with redemptions from fed up investors tired of the hype, now finally throwing in the towel to convert these money losing investments into the S & P 500, U.S. Dollars, and U.S. Treasuries.

    Man oh man if they had only done that in the beginning.

  5. these guys piss in your ear and tell you it is raining; to even think that Sp;rott is a billionaire is the best joke of all.

  6. grant Williams, trader extrordinaire of Vulpes or whatever; they always seem to think that if somebody from Singapore or whereaver is so smart; almost like thinking Americans never get out of North America, BUT that they are the premier investors of the world. China is looking like they can not make the next step to upper end products, like Russia and so forth, so they will give up to Viet Nam and Myanmar. As for Russia, well, they have gold, timber, palladium , vodka, and people that do not seem to get it, and they did have a chance back in1890 but they blew it.

    1. China is already first in terms of super calculators.
      The old times when they could only manufacture T-shirts is long gone :)

  7. i think that is a rather simplistic point of view, steve. let's leave it at that

  8. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    1. Another SPAM BOT with an exotic name, so that stupid readers click on the link and generate money to another gangster website, encouraging those bums to keep doing this...

  9. Hubert, are you a seller in here on the S&P? I am curious.

  10. Hi Steve,

    I just saw your last post.
    Nope, not yet...because my indicators do not invite me to do so.
    So all I have is a resistance in terms of prices...double top.
    But prices may extend first to 2000 i.e upper daily bollinger band, then even 2010 which is the real resistance of the black upwards channel.
    I'd like to have a confirmation from my other indicators as well that we are making a double top before I go short.
    Currently, honestly, I put a short order at 1999 :) :)
    It is here and will remain here in case we push above 1990.
    But you shouldn't ask me.
    Only asking Dan last time if he was already short or not made me not go short and then miss the move down from 1980 to 1900. Because Dan is monitoring the markets all the time, and I am not, and I didn't want to use a sell stop order.
    So...as a trader, never ask what someone else does. Just trade...and ask only yourself :)

    1. Steve,
      Because I have a hot hand, and because I have a 123 MACD divergence on the 1 hour chart, and because the 15 minutes chart seems to be bumping, I've actually just made the SMALLEST short order at 1990 on the SP500.
      The first idea is to reach back the base of the green channel near 1910.
      But my stop loss is above 2010.
      The second idea is that my main short order should be validated by my other indicators, which keep telling me that it seems a bit early to short, and that I'd feel much more confident near 2000 / 2010 with them saying the impulsion consumed all of its upwards potential.
      So, I was planning to short in this area 1990-2010, and I just went short 1/3 of this planned position now at 1990. The remaining 2/3 are waiting for SP to reach 2000 and be validated by my other indicators.
      My stop loss overall will be above 2010.
      The whole line would be reasonably small.
      The current short is microscopic :)
      I can tell you, it is one CFD, so I am short 1990 $ on the SP 500 actually lol :)
      Enough to pay a nice meal if we reach 1910 someday, but I doubt it.

  11. Expect so action on the retail level today. Big feature on Ag prices on CNBC this morning. Corn, Beef, and Pigs with the obligatory novelty melons.

  12. Gold is accelerating down today.
    So the red resistance of the downwards channel on the weekly time unit is winning once again, and if history repeats itself, we might be on the verge of a new terrible plunge...unless...the very long term upwards channel at 1240 stops the bleeding. Or unless...Bo Polny is right.
    But wait, the guy seems to be ALWAYS wrong, which is a very difficult thing to achieve!

    Look what that GANGSTER wrote 2 weeks ago!

    "The next day following the July 22, 2014 post Gold dropped $18
    and then again on August 1, 2014 dropped an additional $12.50
    into a FINAL Summer low of $1281.00. ... The 2014 Summer
    Gold Low is COMPLETE!"

    Hey Bo, Gold reached 1275 today!
    Why would this ASSHOLE care?
    In a month, he will send all his readers and newcomers with a full page of "I was right!" and "I told you so!".
    That guy should be in jail.

    Coming back to gold, another support is the inf bollinger band on the weekly time scale near 1255 $.
    I'm planning to get out of 1/3 of my short position at 1260 $.

    1. EDIT : short term actually my 1/3 buy order is at 1266 $ because you have a neat downards channel on the 4 hour channel. And if we meet the support today, gold should bounce on 1266.
      So...we'll see :)
      Sorry...too lazy to put charts everywhere today.

    2. Hubert, the kid Bo Polny has been in only gold for about 10 years or so, so it is obvious that he would not recognize a bear mkt if it bit him in the ass. Just a donkey fraudster.

  13. Stocks looking up, gold dumping. It looks like Groundhog Day all over again.

  14. 48 hours after the following headlines were posted, S & P 500 erases its losses in its entirety and hits yet another world record, lifetime high.

    WAY TO GO KWN!!!

    "This Is the Worst Nightmare for the U.S. and The West"

    "This Will Trigger Major Dislocations In World Financial Markets"

    "Gerald Celente - This Global Collapse Is Just Getting Started"

    "Fleckenstein - U.S. Stocks To Crash As No Liquidity Fuels Panic"

    "Short Squeeze Of Epic Proportions To Shock Market Participants"

    "A Horrifying & Destructive Future For The Entire World"

    "Chart Of The Week & Vladimir Putin & Chaos Around The World"

    "It’s Amazing What People In Europe Are Doing Just To Survive"

    "Gerald Celente - The Global Ponzi Scheme Is On Its Death Bed"

    "World War III, Total Global Collapse & The Greatest Depression"

    1. Rhaaa....as long as SP500 remains in its linear upwards trendline, I'll have to cope with Mark's posts :)
      Actually the trend has been confirmed once more by the recent decline, with one more bump right on its support, at 1900.
      Well, with that support, the upwards channel is becoming more and more visible to all.
      I'm only enticed to make a very small speculative bet on the fact that we are nearing another big channel's resistance now at 2010 (and because I'm a gambler, as Steve reminded :)). Imho this channel might be too strong an obstacle to overcome short term, but, hey, maybe not!...so it will have to be confirmed by other indicators if we reach those levels (2000-2010).

  15. General Jim must be on the brink of a nervous breakdown watching his beloved TRX sink down to $2.30/share when he could have tripled his net worth since 2012 by investing in names like Avis Rent-A-Car or Southwest Airlines.

    But I guess that the next Q & A session will be hosted by one of Jim's dogs while he is recuperating.


    1. Mark, you are forgetting that he owns the largest dog walking franchise on the East Coast.

    2. Mark:


      For all I know Jim did triple his networth as he sold millions and million of shares in TRX from 2002 - 2011.

      Its interesting to revisit the 2009 article in Barrons.


      Since this article in Barrons Jim sold many many more shares. I think Jim is one of the very few (former) shareholdes that actually made money on TRX.

      TRX the company that doesnt explire, does not mine, does not receive royalties but does pay the CFO 550.000 dollar, the COO 360.000 dollar, the Corporate Secretary 220.000 dollar etc etc.

      Call investor relation about the promise TRX will be producing by september this year, made in spring this year. Investor relation will promise you will be calle back. Which they dont. Call again and you get answered by the ansereing machine. Send emails asking why your phonecalls wont be answered or returned, and you will not receive a reply.

      Jim "I'm here to help" Sinclair - LOL.

    3. Jasper, pretty sad for sure. Look at XAU and HUI gapping down today; barring a late day reversal, we see much lower prices down the pike. Sept is a time for bulls to get trapped big time in gold. We will put 9 in front of the yellow metal before this is all said and done. R.I.P. kwn

    4. It's ugly, in the spiritual sense. A lot of people, myself included were duped.

    5. As ugly as it gets. I suspect Jim actually sold his soul to the devil.

  16. Zhang, You are a Singaporean, right? What do you think of Grant Williams, one of kwn's most respected traders? I will reserve my opinion upon hearing back from you.

    1. his steve; no, I am currently living in Singapore, but I am one of those awful Commies from China; neither I nor PostColonial have ever heard of Williams (or most of the other twerps invented by KWN) - frankly most of the wholesale action in Asia is based in Hong Kong, and Singapore is mostly retail / wealth management rather than Market Making (certainly in softs and pm's)

      In passing, Singapore, Hong Kong etc are no more "exotic" as locations than the staple diet of apparently swish locations we had rammed down out throats as kids (in every movie and TV show) - I hesitate to damn all Americans because they happen to have committed the unforgivable mistake of choosing to be born in LA, San Francisco, Miami or NYC, and would suggest that to write off people in places you have never been to as either fringe or of no consequence would be, shall we say, 'unfortunate'. If your only experience of Singapore is via Pirates of the Caribbean, might I suggest that you look again before leaping to conclusions* and I'll try to bear in mind that not every city and township in North America has "CSI" as a prefix to its name

      Finally, I am still convinced that Silver has a certain Titanic-like look about it just now; as is widely acknowledged, 7/8ths of an iceberg is underwater, which is pretty much where Silver is going to be before long

      *** That having been said, I make no apology for having you fixed in my minds eye as a latter-day Richie Cunningham from Happy Days, and, try as I might (not much) that image is unlikely to fade away any time soon, so better mark me down as a Suzie Wong lookalike and be done with it......

  17. Mark get off the one minute chart. I am sure that Jim Sinclair is chillin and very comfortable holding the cards in his hand. Enjoy this short season of being right and good luck buying high valuation stocks. Come back on and tell us how it worked out for you.

    1. Dilud you read the article Don? For some reason the cultists have absolutely no interest to learn anything. Jim isnt holding cards he is holding dollars.

  18. Hubert, we are wrong in here and early

    1. Hi Steve, as I mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see SP500 going up to 2010 and have no problem with it.
      If it gets through, so be it :)

  19. Hey you have to know how to value a stock. If TRE is over valued don't buy it but it doesn't make Sinclair a bad person that he sold shares. The stock has always appeared overvalued to me compared with peers.

    1. Selling shares while spreading false and misleading information is illegal. Thats pretty bad.

      Now Jimmy is lying about so many things TRX he wont answer the phone any longer.

      I cant wait for the next pictures of sheep on mineset.

    2. I agree , Don , TRX its a great bet , long term , hang on to your shares buddy , I always add at around 2 bucks or lower , and unload north of 2.50 , always keep core position . Never short it , very dangerous .

    3. I am waiting for the next set of progress photos showing the completed leach pad and holding pond. Might be a good day to sell.

    4. One thing Jim got right is, the sheep indeed deeply enjoy their sheering. No matter how many lies and broken promises there will always be new supply of "investors".

      What a fraud that guy is.

    5. Wow lots of posts from people who have been drinking too much of the Fed Kool-aid on here by the looks of it.
      They forget that this whole stock market rise is artificially engineered with QE, none of it is real. Its a fantasy land that is not sustainable unless they want to destroy the dollars value.

      Lets see how the Dow and S&P do without the Fed's QE. I am sure all those gains will evaporate at some point on a dip that eventually won't bounce without the Fed.

    6. And that passes for analysis these days.

  20. barneyb6;

    I guess we can therefore assume you have missed the entire move higher in the S&P 500 and did not make a dime off of an historic rally to all time highs.

    You may not think any of this is real but I can assure you, a lot of folks made a lot of very real profits.

    Here is a news flash for ya... what do you think the Fed has been doing in regards to tapering QE. That program is coming to an end whether or not you like it or not.

    One cannot fight a trend and expect to make money. Those who try to play the hero by being "brave and courageous contrarians" always end up being zeroes.

    1. So much for "QE to infinity".

    2. Jasper don't count your chips while the game is still going on. Jim Sinclair will end up being right it is just that all bear markets are designed to last longer than a person can hang on.

    3. I agree there Dan, just amazing to me how many stay in until the last minute to try and get the last few dimes before the QE music stops.

      Eventually the illusion is exposed as a guy behind a curtain pulling levers and running up endless debt.

      Guess the point is they are just repeating the same mistakes even worse than 2008 with even easier money that will lead to the next crisis.

    4. Dr. Don; You came to the wrong website if you are looking to defend General Jim; the folks here are a bit more savvy than the donkeys at zero hedge with their 18 year old language who keep stackin' lol

    5. Jim is a charlatan and pathological liar. Thats proven fact by now.

      Good luck hanging on.

    6. Buy the dip steve, buy the dip.


    7. Stop the presses everyone; here comes Egon, master of the universe. Once again, I am sickened by people from supposedly world class parts of the world. (Zhang) Switzerland long since sold its soul to the devil and is basically irrelevant. We have cities with greater wealth and population than the former Nazi lap dogs, so do not even get me started there.

    8. that's a little bit abrasive, steve - especially coming from someone in the USA. Do we need this animus in our discussions, or can we just have civil conversations whilst acknowledging both our differences and out accidents of birth?

  21. Dan, Hubert, PostColonialBrit; You know, everyone talks about zirp and so on, but nobody seems to make mention of the fact that we are now 2 years into a ??? cyclical bear mkt in the 10 and 30 year? Maybe it is not cyclical and in fact SECULAR? I do not know, since I thought for sure the Christmas '08 was the top of all time. Your thoughts? And you also, Zhang

  22. Steve - you do realise that I'm Post Colonial Brit's wife, right?

    1. Zhang; I apologize and did not know; What I do know though is that Post is far smarter than me, after I checked out his site. You really fooled me also Zhang, but what I often do poorly is post my thoughts about people that are supposed to be smarter than somebody in Topeka and I think that is garbage. Is your sister as pretty as you?

    2. zhi is 8 years older and about 38 lbs heavier than me, and happily married: it's her 28 year old daughter you should be focused on (but that's another story, and will cost you....)

    3. Zhang, do you realize the role that NY played in financing the Nazis for years? I am not for a minute wanting to defend this horrible behavior, but at the same time, I am sick and tired of all the gold bulls telling me everything about the U.S. that is wrong, while at the same time they seem to never tell me what exactly the BOE, ECB, BOJ, PBOC and so forth are doing right. We can not have it both ways. Things are bad and we all know it.

    4. Zhang; I am just a 64 year old Mick/Kraut/Polack red headed knucklehead so I do not think I have a chance with a pretty 28 year old beauty. But I did do ok with a ABC for 23 years. Oh well, can not win them all./

    5. Zhang;

      I am thinking we need to start the Trader Dan Match Site.... the only thing is if it becomes wildly successful, you are going to have to be prepared to do infomercials along with me and Steve and everyone else who regularly posts here. After all, they think we are just a bunch of wild-eyed traders, not knowing that we are all apparently Cupids and matchmakers now! :o)

  23. Steve yes I can see you guys are in fact in a class of your own. So maybe I will stick around to get some real investment advise on how to navigate through the matrix. Look forward to your best idea's.

    1. no problem don, I edit Dan also

    2. Zhang, Good Morning; what is your feel for Janet later today?

    3. Peak Oil is Dead.
      Don't Fight The Fed
      SDR's are the future.
      Buy the dip.
      Janet matters.
      America will soon be energy independent
      consensus" is the first refuge of cowards

  24. TD:
    Any idea what was behind the short covering this morning in lean hogs? It was pretty intense there for an hour or so.

  25. I thought Harry Dent was part of the doomer crowd seeing how he appears on the Alex Jones show, but here he is predicting $700 gold by 2015:


    The $250 by 2020. With a price that low TRX will be the only mine breaking even I guess.

    1. Newsletter writing, the last refuge of a scoundrel: or is it the first?

  26. Prepare for war?
    Well...I guess in that case, there would be practically no safe place in the world. Time to conquer the moon, maybe?
    Or buy a hobby farm somewhere in Australia?


    The battle is about Europe, not Ukraine. Europe is required to choose a side. Will it be US? Will it be Russia and the Brics? (if you are not with me, then you are against me...).
    What a shame.
    Nothing has changed.
    Entire populations are mere pawns on a giant chessboard managed by a handful of megalomaniac sociopaths.
    Syria. Now half of Ukraine. When will it stop?

    1. Wow. A true believer!
      I'm afraid nobody's listening, Martin.
      I mean, it's the optimistic point of view.
      The pessimisting is they are listening, and are saying "who is this moron? Let's go to war!".

    2. Hubert, I do not know, but when spellcheck Armstrong tries to show me about interest rates 400 B.C. and how that fits into his cycles of war and so forth, I just shake my head. Sure he makes good cases about world events and so forth, just like Celente, but for trading purposes, almost worthless. Right up there with Harry Dent. Good salesmen, poor traders.

    3. I'm not talking about his trading skills :)
      But I think that we'll have a greater chance for peace when americans start learning and talking the language of their ennemy...

      doesn't seem it is Russia who wants to escalate.
      Anyhow, this blog is about trading... so I won't elaborate too much.

    4. point well taken; going to bed; good morning to you and ttyl

    5. Good night Steve.
      Zhang and I will take care of the shop.


      I would hereby like to register my formal and extreme concern at the blatant lies and misrepresentation made not only by and on behalf of the United States of America, but also by numerous American Citizens including (but not limited to) Dan himself

      You - you deceitful shysters - would have us believe that CPI (and with it Inflation) is falling, but anyone who has recently tried to buy a serviceable Kalashnikov or a pre-loved T-72 MBT with Ukranian fiat banknotes will tell you - IT AIN'T SO!

      Luckily, us Lesser Tribes have powerful advocates on our side, including several with names which have been patently trumped up to sound like obscure forms of cheese (in this instance Egon von Greyerz ) and they are keeping us on the straight and narrow, telling us only THE TRUTH (and, let's face it, you can't argue with The Truth, especially not when its in capitals & all)

      You see, rather than all this namby-pamby Janet this, Ben that malarkey, good old Egon cuts straight to the chase -

      "It clearly helps that many economic figures are manipulated and therefore totally inaccurate"

      I mean, COME ON! You can't say it any plainer than that! - well, yes, actually, he can -

      "We are experiencing the beginning of a hyperinflationary period, with hyperinflation.... This hyperinflation will be happening in most major countries." [ponzi]

      Now, unlike some of you mooks who like to pontificate without an ounce of humility or self awareness, Our Many Mr Von Gruyere is acutely aware of his own fallibility, and notes that

      "Some people may view the message coming from the experts on King World News as doomsday"

      which, given the debauched and cynical world we live in these days, is surely fair comment. However, before we lose sight of the fact that this is a regular superhero we are talking about here, Von Stilton goes on to reassure us that

      "You have some of the most perceptive freethinkers in the financial world being interviewed regularly on KWN. I know many of them personally, and I can ensure KWN readers that these people are the most bright and level-headed individuals"

      so, there you have it: WHAT could be plainer than that? "the most bright and level-headed individuals That sure as heck puts some of you dunder-headed muppets to shame, surely!

      And not only that, the Prophet Von Camembert has Good Tidings for one and all, to rouse the heart and put fire in our bellies: for it is said, Dear Friends, that

      "gold is now poised for the next move up [like it always is] gold is now both undervalued and unloved and will therefore not just serve as insurance in coming years, but it’s also likely to appreciate in price more than any of us can imagine.”

      and believe me, I have a very healthy imagination (as, clearly, does Mr. Von Emmental

      So, to end as I began -

      We Are Just Beginning To Experience A Global Hyperinflation

      and I hope you pathetic preening peacock ponzi precious-metal puppydogs got that message LOUD and CLEAR

      just remember where you heard it first


      Hr von Cheddar
      Peddler of Charms & Silver Trinkets to the Gentry


    7. Zhang, please don't stop posting here :)

  27. West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a fifth weekly decline, the longest losing streak in nine months, amid rising U.S. fuel supplies and signs of a slowing economy in China. Brent was steady in London.
    Commodity Intraday Tips

    1. Cheetah vermin! Where have you been? I was missing your spams very much.

  28. EUR USD.
    I hope you remember my previous charts, so I won't post them again.
    The EUR USD broke the blue support of the first downwards channel, and seems to be on the way to validate the second red downwards channel.
    Is it too steep a channel to go down?
    Interestingly, it is exactly the same inclination as last time Eur Usd was in a bear trend.
    Call it market memory :)


  29. SP500.
    We made a new high in terms of price, but not in terms of volumes if I watch the OBVD indicator. Does this divergence mean there is some distribution happening? Possibly, so for me it is one more hint of a possible new correction pretty soon. Besides, the Cdur has reached its upper area, signaling that this impulsion consumed most of its potential.
    Still...the MACD is going up, and the stochastic momentum index is not at its maximum, so...upwards potential is still possible.
    But the daily bollinger bands are horizontal now, like in a big range, and the upper one is at 2000, so it reinforces the role of the 2000 as a major resistance for SP500.
    Therefore I started to bet yesterday the smallest short position on SP500 and will monitor carefully on shorter time units to reinforce this position.

  30. Hi Dan, ive been rising SPY up all the way, mainly in small caps and very happy to ave done so, but i now rather fear the 200 SPY level and thinkn a double top correction has to come soon with higher interest rates and wihdrawn QE....been looking forward to getting in gold and gold related stocks like PVG, MUX, HL, EXK, etc. This makes HUI, GDX, GDXJ etc important. Anyway, could you at some point post your thoughts on how you reckon gold/gold stocks will react to a market drop due to less QE heroin, will deflation hit gold just as similar to normal stocks or will it be slightly immune. If you do not wish to speculate on all of that however, could you post some technical analysis of gold/gold stock index now that some extra damage has been inflicted as everyone chases SPY to 200 and gold looks to have usffered depsite geopolitical tensions...thanks for anything, and love your work,


  31. Well, looks like we remain in the "Perfect World" a little while longer.

    1) Soaring stock indexes to new lifetime highs

    2) Bond market keeps rising, shucking off any threat of rate hikes

    3) Absolutely zero inflation, none whatsoever

    4) Continuous and liquid capital markets evidenced by the uninterrupted "Boner Run" in corporate bond funds

    5) Central bankers can easily control inflation and interest rates if needed, simply by gum-flapping

    6) Virtually all geopolitical threats are easily shaken off and ignored.

    Enjoy the coming economic boom, it will be the longest and greatest one of all time.

  32. Have a good sleep Zhang. Hubert and I will hold down the fort.

    1. Hey, wait a minute... when do I sleep?

    2. it is the cocktail hour in Belguim so you have 6 more hours of these mkts and then I will tuck you in. lol


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