"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Euro falls below 1.3300

Here is the weekly chart of the Euro...

There is support near 1.3250. If that were to fail, it could easily lose another full point.

We might see some volatility when the FOMC minutes hit the wires later today.

The weekly trend however is down.

And now the Chart of the Dollar:

The weekly trend is higher. It has some light resistance near 82.50 with stronger resistance just shy of the 83 level.

Unless we get some sort of surprise out of the FOMC minutes or Yellen's testimony this coming Friday, it seems that the most likely price action in the Dollar is more of a steady grind higher. I do not see anything on the chart which might be suggestive of a sharp surge higher. That could change however if the market believes that higher rates are coming here in the US sooner rather than later. I for one would be surprised to see such a line of thinking but one never knows.

Suffice it to say for now, a stronger Dollar is not conducive to rising commodity prices in general.

Along that line, the GSCI moved higher earlier in the session on the back of higher crude oil prices but has now surrendered most of those early gains as crude fades somewhat and as grains and livestock work lower.


  1. Dan, as usual you make valid points. Perception is reality.

    John Williams of Shadowstats is a bright guy I am sure but has been wrong for 15 years and counting on his hyperinflation call. The mkts do not believe him, nor the kwn boys.

    Secondly, we all know that the government has been monkeying with the cpi figures for years. Baked in the cake and you don't trade what is in there for years.

    Thirdly, we do not trade health insurance and other insurance products and college tuition costs and retail grocery prices. So looking at those numbers and trying to say that commods now just about COMPLETELY across the board are screamingly bearish, to me, is just ignoring reality.

    Last but not least, why do you think volume has collapsed in stks and commods of late? Goldman and Morgan and others have left the building folks and that is a fact, which is why despite the fact that geopolitically the world is probably worse than I can ever remember, rallies are weak and brief. Who do you think brought us the parabolic crude, cotton, bean moves over the last few years? Ma and Pa Kettle buying 1 contract?

    The mkt of course will prove me the fool and I anxiously await the bullshit from the FED within the hour, as the rest of you do. Blow up the FED, Supreme Court and the Military/Industrial Complex and we could be starting back on the true road to prosperity. Until then, we can only pray..

  2. Hubert, I know you have a hot hand, but are you sure you want to fade this beast at 1990?

  3. Interesting how oil just surged with the dollar while gold just got pummelled.
    Wonder who did what somewhere in the world

    1. Prophet, you can find solace and reassurance in the comforting fact that there is a sure-fire way to make a small fortune:

      all you need to do is start off with a LARGE fortune invested in Silver, and wait http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=usJtxYKk59U

      to quote:

      "Simply put, the silver shorts will be squeezed due to the real physical silver shortage that is upon us.

      When this happens all hell will break loose in both the paper and physical precious metal markets.

      Your opportunity is to own silver today… for less than the cost an actual mining company can even produce it for.

      This investment is not an ‘if’ question, but a ‘when’ question".

      So don't worry about losing your shirt - who needs shirts when you can have Silver? Just, Keep Stackin' already

      apologies to those of you who are getting tired of this day-in / day-out regurgitation of the same idle tropes and barren memes: that is precisely the point I am trying to make. As Einstein once remarked, the difference between Genius and Stupidity is that Genius has its limits

      On a slightly more optimistic note, .......................

    2. Taking Advantage of the Depressed Commodities Sector


      (you just couldn't make this stuff up - but they do)

  4. Another "Horrific, Terrifying Collapse" in gold prices and the U.S. Dollar is soaring while Peter Schiff is now eating is food through a breathing tube after he's been punched in the gut too many times by Janet Yellen's "Infinite Fiat"


  5. WTI:
    check out the spread on crude from Sept to Oct contracts- ended almost $3.00 today. The spread widened $1-$2 the last few trading days. Seems to be occurring the last couple months as the front contract expires. Something must be happening with Cushing inventories for this to be happening.


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