Weekend news out of Iraq added a fresh twist to that already volatile situation. Reports indicate that Iran is getting involved as one of its spiritual leaders issued a call to fellow Shias that it was their duty to fight against the Sunni terrorists.
That seemed to get enough people involved that the ISIS jaunt down the nation was halted for the time being.
The Kurds moved into areas in the north so for now, the situation, while far from being resolved, is at least not as serious as it seemed late last week. Do not mistake what I am saying here - no one believes that there is "stability" in the region but on a relative scale, things today seem to be a bit less "horrific" may be perhaps a better way of putting it.
Whatever - the point being that the Crude oil market, which was poised last week to shoot vertical with the trading community terrified that there was going to be an imminent downfall of Baghdad and all manner of crude oil supply disruptions, seems a bit more sanguine about the events this morning.
I have been tracking both the crude oil market and the gold market in conjunction with one another to try gauging the "fear" factor a bit better.
Take a look at the HOURLY chart of Crude oil compared to the Gold price. When the ISIS offensive began garnering headlines Crude oil began rising and gold right along with it. That pattern has been continuing since the events first came onto traders' radar screens. Now that crude is weakening a tad, gold is also having trouble maintaining its upward momentum as well. The two seem to be trading in fairly close lockstep with each other.
Overnight in Asian trade gold bulls were able to reach the buy stops just above the $1280 level in gold and they set those off but once that buying was finished, the bids seemed to fade, along with crude oil weakness, and gold fell back below $1280.
Bulls need to keep prices at a level above $1280 to generate enough upward momentum to keep setting off each layer of buy stops as well as attracting fresh geopolitically driven buying.
The weakness in the mining shares is also feeding into the lack of aggressive buying over at the Comex at this point in the session.
Grains are all weaker today as heavy rains fell over the weekend in key growing areas. New crop corn is trying to hold near $4.40 but still looks heavy. July beans are leading the downside move in beans as bull spreads continue to come off.
"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat
Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput
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