"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, June 16, 2014

Crop Conditions Reports

USDA gave us the regular weekly update on the conditions of the crops during this year's growing season this afternoon.

Here are the breakdowns:

                        THIS WEEK                              LAST WEEK
                        Good      Excellent               Good       Excellent
Corn                   59          17                          60        15

Soybeans               60          13                          62        12

Compared to last year, the corn crop is 76% Good-Excellent compared to 75% last week and 64% last year. The crop is 97% emerged compared to 92% last week and 91% last year. The five year average is 96%.

In the big TWO ( Iowa and Illinois) the corn crop improved in the state index reading where 100 is regarded as normal. Illinois stands at 109 compared to 108 last week and 106 last year while Iowa came in at 110 compared to 109 last week and 110 last year.

Soybeans are rated 73% Good-Excellent compared to 74% last week and 64% for the same week last year. The emergence rate stands at 83% emerged compared to 63% last year and the five year average of 77%.

At the state index level, Illinois dropped to 106 from 108 last week which is still above last year's reading of 102. Iowa saw conditions drop to 108 from 109 but well above last year's poor reading of 95.

The slight drop in soybean ratings is due to excessive rains in some areas of the states. Generally speaking the low lying areas or the ones with heavier soils tend to show declines when excessive rainfall results in those areas "ponding". The widespread rains however mostly remain very welcome among the majority of growers.

All in all the corn and bean crops remain off to a good start especially compared to last year. Warmer weather and abundant moisture are the ingredients to produce big crops.  With all this rainfall some areas have been receiving, a bit of heat would actually greatly benefit the crop. One would be surprised at how fast these crops can grow when conditions are right!

We'll see how the markets respond to the index ratings in Asian trade this evening. I tend to put very little faith in what Asian price action does as it is too thin and leaves the grains open to "game playing" by large speculators. Those of you long time grain traders know exactly what I mean.

The big test will be the opening of the pit session tomorrow ( Tuesday) and how they trade throughout the session.


  1. Hi Dan,

    What are your thoughts on these higher than expected Oil prices in the ags?

    Also, this $29T central bank in equities number being reported by MSM. That's a big number. If true, the CBs own 50% of the stocks? To jump start the consumer why not allocate a few trillion here or there and bring oil way down?

  2. Everyone be care as this is a whoremeister fomc week and of course the MENA is a total mess and if you think you know the truth about the situation, good luck; interestingly enough, here in Reno/Sparks, gasoline prices have fallen a bit in the last 10 days

  3. PostcolonialBrit; We need more posts like yours; I am sickened by all of this going on everywhere that only benefits the military/industrial complexes of the U.S., U.K., France, and have I left anybody out? Oh, yes, Wall Street, all the whore politicians, and where do I stop? Oh, I guess when the public finally gets tired of all the young men dying for nothing.

  4. Gold just puked.

    $1,272 to $1,267 in about 10 seconds.

    Oh, those darn "manipulators", LOL....

    1. Gold appears to have about another $20 to $25 of Iraq premium and oil about $4 or so. If things continue to become more "stable" with the presence of more "players" in the region who show concern, the premium will likely start bleeding off. Don't have the exact dates or charts to show, but seems this premium came out of both oil and gold when the Crimea situation cooled...


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.