"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, April 24, 2014

HUI Chart

A quick chart update...

The 200 day moving average is serving to cap the move higher, for now. Nothing definitive either way, bull or bear. It's a crap shoot and traders do not shoot craps.


  1. I feel it. Come on baby needs a new pair of shoes. 777 coming out...
    It is so difficult when their is so much liquidity roaming just looking to destroy $. Sad. I was thinking about it, but the next headline will read Obama and Putin sitting down for a beer. I was ground up like a beef patty last year...doing my best to stay away from the "all in" mentality. Thanks.

  2. Durable Goods number dominated by Boeing aircraft numbers. Stick save goes to the propaganda machine. See the ZH breakdown. I hear Harry is out west screaming and FEDS looking for more WACO blood. Sad state of Tyranny here in the US. JUST LIEN THE LAND and let a court and jury of peers decide. Oh that's right the gov will lose.

  3. Another horrific day for HUI, signaling upcoming massive drop in gold.

    KWN: Way to go guys!

    1. KWN can't be taken seriously on any level and Dan's interviews were one of the best things about it at one time.
      KWN is a paranoid drama queens dream come true.

      Just peeked over there...I see Turk is claiming 2014 is when the vault system dries up for good.

      The end of the year has many reputations on the line. The shamelessly transparent shills out there with any credibility left (silent pause) have no where left to run/hide as they've painted themselves into a desperate corner.

    2. When the goal posts can be moved to any year that they want, then there is no desperate corner, because there is no corner. So if gold does go to 5000 in 2050, and they are still around, then they can cheerfully say, I said it was going to go there. That is why it has become a useless site.

  4. " It's a crap shoot and traders do not shoot craps."

    If you had a gun to your head you might wanna play the don't pass line Dan. lol

    1. Taylor; I only play the Don"t; only way to go; sparks

  5. Just as all the trend following pundits had finished drafting their obituary for Gold today ( Thu) morning, when it broke sharply under the magic $1278 level , they had to rewrite the final script when the metal turned sharply like a cobra to the upside. Of course it was a disappointment that ^Hui, GDX and GDXJ did not confirm this turnaround ; so the jury is still out for the Weekly closing tomorrow.
    Wait and watch time.

  6. Op ex date today? Anyone know the sweetspot in pgms? I guess Ukraine/Russia didn't get the memo. No matter, wash rinse cycle comes around again soon.

  7. Ukraine Panic Attacks notwithstanding, the truth on the charts is that gold, silver, and miners all remain south of their 200 day's.


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  9. Really....

    Ukraine, Egypt, Russia, Iran, Iraq, Fukishima, etc.

    None of them have an impact on gold.

    Why is that?

    Because its in a bear market, that's why.

    But wait......

    I must go over to that certain website and read no less than 10 Ukraine/Putin articles posted every day including the John Williams snippits that suggest 18% inflation and a collapsing economy.

    And at the same time, watch AMZN and AAPL, the pre-eminent "Resilient Consumer" stocks soar after hours when earnings are reported.

    - Stocks are in a bull market.

    - There is no inflation.

    - Interest rates are cheap.

    - Precious metals are collapsing.

    - The leading economic indicators are improving world wide.

    - The Consumer has never been stronger.

    - The world is not going to collapse next week, probably not in my lifetime.

    Stay in the System.

    1. All true......and I am dating supermodel Kate Upton !

    2. With a little bit of kuck somewhere some banker will commit suicide or get murdered and this certain website has more nice material to pump.

      I can only imagine what went wrong in that guys growing up years but the personality is clearly very disturbed.

      Well hes got fine furniture and nice animals plus plenty sheep admirers, perhaps its worth it.

    3. Mark,

      Since January 3rd, 2000

      S&P 1455 to 1878 = 29.1%
      Gold $282 to $1300 = 361%
      Silver $5.35 to $19.75 = 269%

      All figures unadjusted for inflation. Which asset class would you have preferred to be in over those 14+ years?

      I'm happy with my choice and am patiently waiting for the S&P to become undervalued before allocating my hard won gains into that sector.

      Remember the goal in speculating is to buy LOW and sell HIGH, not the other way around.

  10. Hubert, when you started here you didnt know anything. Now you not only know a lot, but your trading is outstanding. You could easily make 500,000 a year doing this. Consider doing this full time, buy a condo in Paris, and really enjoy life.

    1. Hi arnie,
      Indeed I could make easily 500.000 a year.
      But only in Zimbabwean dollars.
      One has to be able to invest a lot to win a lot, and endure the pressure of the amount of money at risk. I'm ok as long as I bet small amounts on each trade, but that wouldn't be enough to afford a condo in Paris.
      Personally as well, I prefer to have another activity than only day trading. I've tried before, and knowing that trading is your only way to earn your life's money is also stressful.
      I consider trading as a complement, which I can practice when I have time, i.e most of the time, the time units are long enough so that I can monitor the trade not every 15 minutes.
      When I started, I didn't know anything, but that wasn't here, that was 15 years ago, and I first started by losing some money, I think just as anyone else :)
      I've learnt a lot of useful things throughout the years, especially patience, and many of them on this blog thanks to Dan. At least enough, at the moment, so that I don't lose money anymore.
      Remember : greed is bad :)

  11. Wolf,
    Mark is the token "the recovery is slow but going to be great soon cheerleader". He doesn't know real Americans just the ones they run in front of cameras smiling with Obama recovery stickers and tons of the BS talking
    Point fake economic statistics appointed through MSN, MARKET WATCH, AND THE OTHER LEADING PRAVDA CHANNELS. If he was truly investing this way he made money the last couple of years regardless of his unparalleled ability to delude himself in believing a recovery exists, Unemployment is decreasing, and companies are growing. All lies but..as Dan states if more people believe it and invest that way, then the circus proceeds....until..

  12. The truth is exposed ...then run for the hills.

  13. White Wolf you would have an entirely different perspective if you had to trade to make a living.

    You would drop your biases and watch the tape and stop with what you would wish would happen.

    No cheerleading here, just reporting what the facts are, what is really happening on the tape.

    Not some gloom and doomer's fantasy.

    1. Mark, there is no recovery. Their is going to be fewer jobs and much higher inflation. I really don't think their is much difference between statist thinking nowadays. The Ukrainian situation has put a huge wedge not the plans of these planners. Outside issues scare the he'll out of the rigged and manipulated markets. I really believe if control is lost now it will get really volatile and all the balance sheet and financial punditry on market watch, Msn, and other sites with the HFT, PPT and Central bankers, politicians will be surprised how no one will respond in the manner they believe they should. At that point no one knows what happens. We (USA) have abused the dollar, energy is not solved and with the middle east volatility only fools turn our backs on pipelines, sheer ignorance. The debt, unemployment situation is horrific. One small or large issue like further aggression and the boomers will make Nostradamas kook like an amateur. Keep playing with fire and intellectual pride instead of starting to put people to work with real productive uses like pipelines, fracking, lower taxes on individuals, lower on us Corp. But eliminate CRONY loopholes, subsidies, and we have a chance. Otherwise keep the vs.

  14. There is a problem with the data of the platform I'm using, as you can see in the last candle which doesn't show at all that prices went all the way down to 1267.
    Anyhow, the chart is enough to show :
    - bullish divergene on the OBVD
    - bullish divergence on the MACD to be confirmed by MACD crossing signal.

    Still, prices are capped by immediate resistances such as ma20.
    I won't monitor shorter term time units today, just let the trade keep going.
    Probably will put my next 1/3 sell order near 1320.

    1. 777 boeing...now they found a statue of the virgin Maria under the sea where they were conducting the search.

      Here is the chart of gold with divergences noticed.

  15. Lads if you want to see inflation you need to look at longer term charts from 2007. What do you think the rise in the stock prices is if not inflation? Take a look at some long term charts in the commodities since 2007. There is sonetimes incredible inflation such as lumber but also deflation such as in housing. Oats has been whacked recently and sugar looks about ready to do a coffee. Hope you all saw that interview on Bloomberg by the Chair of the WGCouncil forecasting Chinese gold demand up by 25% over next four years. Slightly different take on gold demand flat in 2014 which was the apparent reason for further declines in price. Also nice to see all the bearish comment, sentiment definitely for lower prices. More spikes due soon to screw accounts flushing both ways with the volatility in the news. Mind your stops....

  16. i don't trade commodities, but have started to look at the numbers more just to learn about it, corn is going in very late in the mid-west because the ground is still too cold. if the seeds go in too early, germination is slowed, and the seeds begin to rot. i checked those stats this morning, just because it is obvious looking out the window that we are 3 weeks to a month behind average, going by spring flowers, and lack of foliage on the trees. i know that farmers can get their seeds in faster now than ever, and also choose hybrids with shorter maturities, but at some point i have to believe that weather risk starts pushing up the cost of hedging - ie futures. the later the corn goes in, the more impactful other weather events will be in a shortened season. another thing to consider is that the weather has been very volatile for several years, so that also increases risk, therefore i assume the the cost of farmer hedging,

    good morning everybody, and hope i added something with my morning musing over coffee. i live in southern Wisconsin, in feed (field) corn country.

    EO - let me know when you have your popcorn planted. :-)

    1. Peckerwood,
      Southern Wisconsin, eh? Close to Madison? Beautiful little town - at some point I was thinking of moving there.
      How much is an acre of good arable land over there?

  17. land sells by type, so you would have to be more specific, such as tillable vs. pasture. here's a link to check out.


    i am 45 minutes south of Madtown - and i am UW alum. i will be moving back to Madison late summer because i can not find decent work where i am now. i like Madison, though it has plenty of problems too. but as long as the economy does not completely derail, Madison will survive due to big G, sorry for plugging Keynes :-), and the University.

    1. Thanks for the link PW. Good luck with your plans. Perhaps we'll meet in Madison one day :-)

  18. I'm thinking my popcorn won't go in until at least a week into June, but I'm generally a couple weeks behind the real farmers. I'm just a hack with a little patch in his yard.

    I've tried planting when they do, but it doesn't work for me, and then I have to replant, which is a bummer.

  19. With 92% of lake superior still covered in ice 8 feet thick, florida may be the only place to grow corn.

  20. Just bought puts on apple. I added fresh new shorts to fb, nflx. This was a short covering rally. Im glad i didnt stay in the system when fb was at 70 and netflix was 450. what a year. I continue to add to physical gold and miners.


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