“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Gold backs off from chart resistance

The region near $1434 - $1440 is proving to be a bridge too far for the gold bulls for the time being. You can see that this level held the market in check twice previously, once in late May and again in early June.

Bulls ran it up into this resistance zone this week but thus far have been met by solid selling. As stated in yesterday's comments, the market is overbought and is thus susceptible to a bout of profit taking.



There is psychological support first at $1400, then at $1380 and much better chart support down near $1355.

Markets which are reacting to news events can be very treacherous often making wild swings in price so traders be careful. Do not get too aggressive in here unless you have very deep pockets and are not overly leveraged. Better to make a smaller sum of money on a winning trade,  or lose a smaller sum of money on a trade gone bad, then to bet the farm and end up being a tenant worker!

There is a time to be brave and a time to be cautious.

47 comments:

  1. Yes ... Dan ..

    "There is a time to be brave and a time to be cautious." I like this ..

    IT is being interesting for the past 2 day. I am a happy guy now ...

    Cheer

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Dan!

    See my latest comments on last page.
    I'll just update my chart so that it is more visible hereunder.

    - First, I added the neckline of the Cup and Handle at 1350 $, which gives me an idea target around 1500 - 1520 $. Now, on the way up, many resistances, so I doubt we'll get there directly.

    - So what résistances are about to stop prices? I think the main one is the green one, of the main green channel // to the ma20 at the moment.

    - A big warning about prices stalling under this resistance is given by the level of the MACD 9 20 7. It is a level where, except at one occasion, prices systematically stalled since 2009.

    - Concretely, how I do imagine this could unfold? Lots of bulls are now once again very enthusiastic about gold. It will maybe take a bit of time and bumps before we really correct Under 1400. For a little while, we may stay within the blue channel, the one with the steeper slope and the most short-term, also.

    - on the other hand, the 1350 zone which is the neckline of the cup and handle, and also the 1335 $ zone which is the support of the green channel, have a much better chance to hold the prices should we have a correction, at least at the first attempt.

    So my strategy here will be to sell again a bit more if we get close enough of the green upper resistance, and maybe again sell a bit stop if we break the support of the blue channel. Thus, securing gains and making it possible for me to put a buy order around the 1350 $ area.

    http://s13.postimg.org/wmx7kmwon/gld.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert Du Haut; Maybe you can help me out, since I believe you are either French, Dutch or Belgian? My question is why are the French so bellicose and belligerent when it comes to a forthcoming Syrian attack? If memory serves me correct, French track record over the last 150 years is consistently of losses, via the Russians, Italians, Germans, and Vietnamese, and were only bailed out a few times by the Americans. Why is that? Have a good weekend; swb in sparks

      Delete
  3. Agree, selling 1/2 the miner position keeping the oil. Trading account will be in tact and ready to switch back.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi,

    I think we are going higher... i see the dollar strengthing by 0.60% and the gold correct to 0.66% base on this, there is no correction in other currency...

    I think this is a bear trap...

    The speculator will try to lure as many bear as possible and kill all the bear before this rally end...


    Cheer

    ReplyDelete
  5. Yes, definitely time to be cautious.

    Both GLD and GDX selling off since the GDP report is suggesting a resumption of the "economic boom" we have been experiencing since 2009.

    Investors are now clamoring for "safe haven" stocks like NFLX, FB, TSLA, BIDU, etc. which are completely unfazed by:

    - Taper vs. more QE

    - Commodity market volatility

    - Wild currency gyrations

    - Inflation vs. Deflation debates

    - Sequester, debt ceiling worries

    - Middle East geopolitical tensions

    - Millions on food stamps, increasing every day

    Why subject yourself from constant and repeated heartbreak in the PM market when other companies with sky high P/E ratios offer much more favorable returns? LOL.......

    ReplyDelete
  6. Yes an appropriate Caesar strategy of when to run and when to advance is good right here. Wanna $ee a $tranded whale before they blow it up??

    http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.ca/2013/08/hurricane-surge-for-gold-miners.html

    Dan knows I love him but I knows I think the CRIMEX #'s are tantamount to fraud.......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.ca/

      works as well

      Delete
  7. Dan,

    I don't understand the talk of deflation. We have hidden INFLATION by way of smaller amounts of goods at the grocery store and fast food places. A Jr. Bacon Cheeseburger at Wendy's is like half the size it once was (my perception). But if you notice a lot of the foods you by are in fractional ounces or lbs (whereas they used to be in full oz and pounds for the most part). Also, more and more people are finding that minimum wage can no longer support living in ANY area of the country, unless of course both husband and wife are working 80 hrs a week and getting overtime! Hence we are seeing McDonalds employees striking. Also, we have unprecedented amounts of recent high school/college grads living with parents for two reasons 1. no jobs 2. cost of living is through the roof (inflation).

    Oddly enough, gasoline here in Monterey is CHEAPER than it has been in several months ($3.60 for reg unleaded) whereas oil is HIGH...

    Hopefully, we don't go into Syria, I don't want to go in that section of the world for the 4th time!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Nate, you're in the army?
      Hope you don't have to go there indeed.

      Delete
  8. $ is a bull mkt, plain & simple; swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  9. http://www.mrci.com/pdf/index.php for all the $ bears out there; swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  10. The GDP at 2.5% has to be a lie. Three weeks ago with the change in criteria including research and development which added .3 to .4% the GDP was estimated at 1.7%. How with all the lousy numbers the last two weeks that the GDP is now 2.5%. Have we reached a time where overt lying will not even be challenged. I can't believe it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "How with all the lousy numbers the last two weeks that the GDP is now 2.5%."

      The GDP report was for Q2, which was in March - June. It is now August.

      Delete
  11. Concord, you know that all the #'s are made up just to give the talking heads some material; also when it comes to the liar Obama and the rest of them, well, if their lips are moving, they are lying; swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Steve,
      How do we determine what is really the state of things? Do we do it by inference? Things are spinning out of control. I know that is nothing new for you, but it is so blatant and anyone with a hint of brain should be questioning it. How does one invest in that type of environment. Actually maybe you don't I get it, that is why you and others here are traders. Invest at your own peril.

      Delete
  12. Today's slapdown in gold and oil was more "proof positive" that Bernanke can "whip inflation" with mere words any time he wants.

    Also proof that "Paper" still trumps "Physical", meaning that annual oil and gold production is finite, but the ability to print "Short at Market" COMEX and NYMEX order tickets is inifinite.

    Just goes to show you how jittery these commodity investors are, they will sell in a blink if they think the "Central Planners" are planning a bear raid.

    In stark contrast to investors in names like Goodyear Tire or Ford, who are basically unflinched from any sort of jawboning out of the Fed, and will steadfastly clutch to their stocks come hell or high water.

    And don't even get me started on the "Glam" names, which to date have been completely impervious to news noise coming out of Syria, the FOMC, or the ECB.

    ReplyDelete
  13. http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2013/08/pending-homes-sale-report-housing.html

    ReplyDelete
  14. http://s7.postimg.org/ohvf907mz/gld.jpg

    Update of my gold chart in dollar, daily candles.
    So we are still in this nice blue upwards channel. But it's a narrow one and it goes high too fast --> sooner or later, it's probable that we will break the support rather than break through its resistance.
    So I'm following the channel closely, and am trying to do "my job", which is not to guess where the market will go next, but rather to see if there is an opportunity to manage my current position via risk management.

    ANALYSIS :
    - I identified blue support at 1400 $ today.
    - the green channel resistance is at 1440 $.
    - Under the blue support, we can find the mlh inf of the dotted grey pitchfork, then the 1350 support zone.

    TRADING :
    - I am not doing anything between 1400 and 1440, because I am not playing intra-day yoyo.
    - I may sell a bit of my position if we get close to 1440 because I'd be surprised we cross this up, especially it's meeting the median of the grey fork too there now.
    - I will NOT sell short under 1400 because other potential supports (mlh inf at 1375, 1350 area) are still too close, so I would have to put a stop loss close to 1400 to keep a relevant risk reward ratio, meaning a good chance to get stopped, or managing the position intraday, which I can't today.
    - Yet, in the coming days, if we stay in the forming rising wedge between the blue support and green resistance, then it will be more and more interesting to sell stop on the breaking of the blue support, putting a stop loss above the green resistance, and targeting first the mlh inf of the grey pitchfork, then the 1350 $ area.

    CONCLUSION :
    I hope that the market will not break the blue support yet, but will remain between the green resistance and blue support for another few days. That way, I will probably be able to sell some of my position in a good risk / reward conditions, and maybe benefit from a correction of gold towards 1350 $.

    Once again, I'm only sharing the way I'm trading here, not to suggest anything, but to show that I don't really care what the market will do. I'm just preparing myself to act by detecting relevant décisions depending on the market action.
    After that, the market can do what it wants.
    I already don't care.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Which means (Dan correct me please if I'm wrong), that for a trader, trying too hard to guess what the market will do next, is an exercice in futility.

      What matters more is money management, risk management, and using T.A to detect potential entry / out points on the market.

      Yet, most analysis are full of "Cassandre" trying only to predict the next move, and where the market will be in 3 weeks, 3 months, 3 years.
      The very few traders I know, fortunately all successful, would always answer the same to the question : "where do you think the market will be in 3 weeks?". And that would be : "I don't know. I don't care."

      Delete
    2. you think gold will drop to 1350 zone? i hope it doesnt go any lower than 1380 area cos im still in one of my mining positions, i sold half when it reached much higher than my entry point but im still holding the other half ....im a bit nervous cos i can feel gold being a bit weak for a while, as is the case with the HUI..but a visit to the 1350 area would hurt, even though im happy holding for a while till we revisit 1440/HUI-280 area..i love my technical analysis but i have to admit i rarely use the fibonacci which i see you cherish quite alot..need to learn about that more

      Delete
    3. @ precious wood, I don't know if gold will drop to 1350 or not.
      But for sure, a 50 $ drop is NOTHING right now, given the recent volatility. So, can gold drop back to 1350 next week? Of course, very easily imho.

      Can it go down further?
      Yes, sure it can, I expect it eventually to touch the green channel's support zone again, next week it will be at 1335 $.

      Can it go down even further down, down to 1270?
      I would not like it if gold went through 1335, but unfortunately, my answer is again : yes. With such an environment as now, with markets ready to collapse, with crazy QE to maintain them, with a TBonds bubble, with Syria crisis, every bloody thing is possible. So you have to be reactive, and cut your losses quickly if you see the market goes the way you don't like.

      From 28th of june (1180 gold) to 28th august (1135 gold), there were only 2 months. 2 months and gold went up 250 $ and more than 20%. In 2 months, it's a lot.
      So I would actually welcome a correction now, with gold correcting towards 1350 or 1335 and solidly validate a new low around this area. Too high, too fast, is the promise of a violent correction to come.
      I'd like to see gold remain in the green channel, because it's easy to follow and its slope is not as steep as the blue one or the grey pitchfork's.




      Delete
    4. yeah i understand.....the run from the lows of 1179 was pretty violent...well, it wasnt that violent but it was too consistent, so i can appreciate a healthy correction to the the 1350 area....i would prefer 1375 ish area...but i must admit i was quite impressed with gold holding today at the 1392/1395 area...and just now its even broken through 1400 (though dropping a bit)...maybe this is in case some weekend action occurs regarding Syria..but i still think the debt ceiling and Fed and macroeconomic news will keep gold relatively strong,...but ive learnt to go with the technical and trading trends despite the unpredictability of some fundamentals like physical gold drying up, war, black swans etc...anyway, i admire ur detail but hope you are wrong about gold going down to 1350-35 area, cos im holding through the weekend...id love Dan to detail the HUI and gold charts for the weekend....

      Delete
    5. "hope you are wrong about gold going down to 1350-35 area".
      Again, not saying it is going there.
      If I were certain of that, I would've sold my whole position and gone short :)
      All I'm saying is that sooner or later, yes, I expect gold to correct towards the green channel's support.
      Will it be next or in 6 weeks, I don't have a clue.
      It's dangerous to make prognosis, because :

      - on a daily basis, gold is in an uptrend
      - on a weekly basis, gold is still in a downtrend and getting close to résistances.

      Will the daily uptrend propagate to the weekly, or will there be a reversal? I don't know yet.

      Delete
  15. SILVER.

    I chose a long-term representation of silver.

    http://s12.postimg.org/6a34s1599/slv.jpg

    The good news for all the depressed bulls who saw a correction from 50 $ to the lows 18 $ and Wonder how the hell silver could get back there?
    Well, just as it did last time.
    In 2008, silver topped at 22 $ before crashing to 9 $, retracing 77% of its uptrend journey since 2003 from 5 $.
    In 2013, silver retraced 77% of its rise from 9 to 50$.
    And if history should repeat itself, we could see silver at 100 $ in the next few years.

    The bad news : one candle doesn't make a bull trend. See the time it took to start the bull trend at the last bottom? See the gentle slope silver took before becoming parabolic? That's not what I see here with this single big green 2week marubozu. I see a short-term upwards reaction, fostered by short covering, and stopped dead by the ma20 and another resistance I'm following. We retraced 38% of the move down at 25 $, and now I think that the best for the long term bulls is not another marubozu like this, but instead, a kind of correction at this point. Like going back to the previous fibonacci level, around 22.50 $, and hold there. That's what I'd like to see as a long-term bull. Not an upwards explosion that will collapse again, with huge volatility.
    So I'm out of silver since we hit last fibo (24.87 exactly on my chart = 38% of the 50-18 $ move), and I put a buy order at 22.50.
    Let's see...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Hubert Du Haut,
      Id welcome a correction down to 22.00. would love to buy some more at that level for long term hold.

      After it clears 50 (speculating that it does), where are the resistance zones? Is it a furious move to the upside all the way up to 100 with a few pauses- a hyperbolic style move? Is this what you'd expect?

      Delete
    2. Jim...I have no idea :)
      What for anyway? Let's see when (if) we get to 35 $ already...

      Delete
  16. Does anybody really believe there is value in Mich Confidence Surveys? 500 respondents is what they poll. swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Steve,
      I don't believe any of them. We must be in a sinking environment or they wouldn't lie so much. I read that college education has gone up 500% in twenty five years.

      What does that say about a no inflation world out there? It is all lies.

      Delete
  17. isnt there supposed to be some significant level/range that, should gold end within it, makes another bullish case...i think it was something like above 1395...i could be off by quite a bit but i read it somewhere, maybe zerohedge, marketwatch or KWN..but yeah, can anyone confirm that? x

    ReplyDelete
  18. Concord; the #'s are either lies or fabricated by government morons who still do not know where 2nd base is in the 7th inning; serves a purpose for hft thieves to rip some profits for an hour or so; guess what? all the #'s get revised a month later anyway; it is all noise; last but not least, I just can not fathom a V-Bottom for the pm's; maybe I am wrong, but I am also flat going into this wknd, except for short Yen; ttyl and have a good wknd, swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  19. Gunboat Kerry, the warrior of the Mekong Delta, what a phony bad, bad joke, right up there with Rumsfeld, cheney, bush, and I could go on and on about the Heinz kept man and weasel; this Syrian situation just sickens me; swb, sparks

    ReplyDelete
  20. Steve,
    I am from Boston originally. I am a liberal by conventional definition. But how hypocritical is the foppish war hero talking about war after "leading" the vietnam war vets in anti-war protests. His SAT's were lower than GWB's which tells you all you need to know about his brains versus his blind ambition to have been the second coming of JFK. JFK would be turning over in his grave with the comparison.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You said it Concord; a real donkey and par for the course; have a good wknd; steve in sparks

      Delete
  21. Egon is at it again, Dan when he extrapolates 1980 gold at $850 and silver at $50 as being adjusted for inflation to now be worth $7000 gold and $400 silver is patently a terrible lie and shows once again that he is nothing more than a shill and a fraud; if Eric King was your friend you would indicate to him that the people that go to your site are not morons and that we find interviews with clowns like him to be a very bad joke and I do not care if he has 100 years experience in the business and advises the entire world and is a multi billionaire , blah, blah, blah; steve in sparks and have a pleasant labor day wknd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I must agree with Steve here, not about EVG in particular (I didn't find the link), but because I went to the home page of KWN and here is what I read and memorized first :
      - Mr X warns of Massive Gold Short Covering and Contagion.
      - Gold Market now very close to issuing a major buy signal.
      - A terrifying collapse will plunge the world into total chaos.

      Put together, those headlines give a sence of urgency to act NOW (collapse, chaos coming) and buy gold (massive short covering on the way, major buy signal).

      There is once more no warning about : TIMING. POSSIBLE SHORT TERM VIOLENT CORRECTION OR WORSE.

      Dan, I don't know Eric for sure but if you do...maybe I'm wrong but does he realize that with those headlines, he may harm a lot of unprepared people who will remember only what I stated above, buy a lot of gold and run away at the first rout on gold prices, probably at a lower prices?
      If I have a humble message to send to Mr King : why do you try to promise too much to your readers by not warning them enough about possible continuation of the downtrend or short-term violent correction?

      I am writing this today, because I know Dan is interviewed every saturday, and because I feel that gold, precisely NOW, is most vulnerable to a correction than it was throughout all summer.
      And now is the time when I read such headlines?
      Mr King, please mention that this is long term, please mention that there can be violent corrections, and that gold may also go down back to 1200 $ or below, because truth is, there are no prophets, your readers are vulnerable to such promises if they don't happen, they are vulnerable to despair because they rely on you as a beacon in this mess.

      Simply put, just one single chart, Mr King, with all due respect.
      Below is a QUARTERLY representation of gold chart.
      How can you say yet that we are back in a long term bull market for certain?
      I will give you credit for the "very close to issuing signal" and not "issued" indeed. But put together with the other headlines, many readers won't bother : they will buy NOW, maybe at a short-term top, and probably won't understand if gold loses 150 dollars. Don't promise too much in your headlines.
      In this chart, you see that we made a simple "ligne de poussée" for now, so it will all be about next quarter. If we can't get beyond 1420 $ zone, this figure is a weak figure of Bear continuation, and the inf bollinger band is at 900 $!!
      All we did by now was react higher (and too fast short-term). It is a long shot before gold re-enters bull market, I'd wait at least that we go beyond 1450 $ and close on a weekly basis to say that. So yes : "very close to issuing" means it DIDN'T YET. Gold can also reverse backwards.
      http://s13.postimg.org/g6k7b0v9z/gld_q.jpg

      Delete
    2. PS : sorry, I was reminded to mention that my charts come from prorealtime.com if I want to post them free of charge, so here we go.

      Delete
    3. What I find even more troubling that EVG can say what he says and can actually be short gold in interim. My broker knows him and talked to him a while back(three months ago) and found he was interviewing with Eric King talking about the long term picture and short gold. I found it troubling my broker did not. By the way I sure hope we don't have to retrace.

      Listen to Eric Sprott earlier this week. He talks about gold setting up for 3000% gains. I am immune to this stuff now but once has to understand what has happened the last two years to look at gold objectively.

      Delete
    4. Steve, Hubert, Concord;

      Can I make a suggestion - It is evident that some of Eric's guests are wildly bullish gold. Let's just accept that they are and not get bent out of shape because of it. In my mind it is the same sort of thing as guys who make predictions for 20,000 DOW and 2200 S&P, etc. They are bulls clear and simple. I do not regard them as frauds or shills - I merely learn to tune them out if their analysis does not fit what I am seeing and move on.

      You all know that every market has perma bulls, perma bears and some who are in between and much more short term oriented in their approach. Just accept that and let it go.

      I personally never let anyone's predictions upset me one way or the other any more. I simply do my best to try to figure out which side of the market I want to be on for the short term and hopefully make a bit of money as a trader.

      There are times when I read comments from some analyst explaining price action in the livestock markets for example which drive me insane because I know how utterly wrong they are. But my chance comes when the same reporters interview me and I get a chance to state the case as I see it. Sometimes, my view is verified by price action; sometimes it is not. It is just the way of markets. If they always behaved the way we figure that they should, all of us here who trade would be wealthy enough to buy our own private islands in the South Pacific complete with beautiful Polynesian women.

      My advice - don't worry about the predictions of others - just ignore them if they seem too outlandish and let it go at that.

      Delete
    5. Hi Dan,

      I know it for sure, and I respect everyone's advice.
      But I'm worried for the "uneducated" readers who will buy too much too high on the wrong impression, only to sell later on at a lower level because they didn't expect a correction at all.
      I'm sure not upset for myself, as you said, I can judge their position and agree with what you wrote.
      It's more about the perception of usual lambda readers who discover the website.
      They'll be scared, buy gold, won't expect a correction and may sell at a lower level because, even unlevereged, some people don't stand the pressure.
      All I'm saying is : don't forget the sign "risk of violent corrections ahead, even in a bull trend".

      Wishing you a nice weekend,

      Delete
    6. Hi Hubert Du Haut,

      I agree and understand what you're saying and was most disappointed with Jim Sinclair and to be honest took the approach of Dan's- I just tune off now. Having said that, I think if those "uneducated" or not so analytical people who make their decisions based on what somebody said on KWN can "learn" from their experiences of following blindly- wouldn't this be a great gift. Sometimes, the greatest learning comes from making big mistakes. In this respect, KWN is doing some people some favours.

      Anyway, food for thought...

      Delete
    7. Hubert du Haut;

      Just keep in mind what I wrote some time back and posted up here as a stand alone piece - KWN is not a timing service nor does its mission statement have much to do with trading. It is a big picture oriented website.

      Some of us here tend to look at everything we read or see through the prism of traders. That is normal because of our occupation. However, we sometimes forget that many of the less sophisticated investors out there are not as tuned in on a day to day basis as we traders are. Those folks need to acquire some physical metal to protect themselves from what many of us feel is coming our way in the future. I would rather see them get some metal if they do not have any even if the price of it were to drop lower instead of doing nothing whatsoever.

      My own personal view, and it pains me to even say this, is that the United States is now rotting from within. It is rotting first of all, morally and ethically. Our nation is given over to hedonism at the expense of hard work, discipline, self-sacrifice and virtue.

      Second it is rotting financially which is tied to its massive debt and nearly limitless creation of more paper money/debt to mask these things.

      Thirdly, it is rotting politically as it is drifting further and further away from its roots as a constitutional republic as the welfare state envelops more and more in its path.

      I see so many parallels between the US and ancient Rome that it depresses me to no end. I think there is a large contingent out there who feel the same way and one thing we all share in common is a sort of feeling of helplessness as it goes from bad to worse in spite of our efforts to do something about it. We feel as if we are spitting into the eye of a hurricane. That is what demoralizes me.

      I personally wish that things were such that we could rely on a solid, national currency with a group of leaders that live within their means, respect the rule of law, and understand the concept of being servants to the people who entrusted them with power. Sadly that is no longer the case. We are bankrupt in the truest sense of the word.

      Delete
    8. Hi Dan,

      Once again, thanks for your detailed answer.
      I want first to remind that I highly respect the work and purpose of such websites and Eric's in particular.

      Second, I totally agreee with you about its long-term orientation.

      Third, I'm also sharing your view here : "I would rather see them get some metal if they do not have any even if the price of it were to drop lower instead of doing nothing whatsoever."

      Therefore, the only thing which "separates" us, if I may say, is about the expected results.

      I am not worried because KWN will not help people optimize their short-term long entry point.

      I am worried because those very people you and I wish to help make the right decision and buy some physical gold, many times will buy gold via storage companies such as BullionVault or GoldMoney or Goldbroker.

      My point is :
      - those people are not Professionals, of course.
      - they can be highly stressed / emotional --> driven by their emotions.
      - they can sell their gold just as easily as they bought it (in fact much more easily because buying means opening an account) by one click of a mouse.
      - they are basically very risk averse, that's why they look for a safety haven --> they don't easily stand the heat of a loss.

      Because many of them are driven by emotions, are risk averse and can't stand the heat, and can sell their gold back so easily on a whim, I think, that my purpose and yours and Eric's are exactly the same, that it is very important to remind them the whole picture, and also to mention that short-term corrections, even deep, even violent, are a complete part of the game, and that they must acknowledge it, embrace it, accept it before they decide to buy gold and especially what percentage of their capital.

      Imho, if one doesn't do that, one risks to get the opposite result that one was looking for, that is many of those people will sell back a fair amount of their gold at the first deep violent correction, because it will have come unexpected.

      So : I'm sharing your goal and your description, but I think those people should be better informed that this ride is not going to be a picnic, for their own good.

      Delete
    9. I'm splitting my answer in 2 posts, because it's 2 different topics entirely.
      About the rot, feeling of helplesness, and feeling demoralized, tough words, and very understandable.

      I thought I'd run out of quotes and be sucked in the see of discouragement a few times myself in my life, but to Orwel's merciless dark vision of the world (sustained for sure by real dangers, such as media disinformation and all those techniques aiming at reprogramming a normal human being into a brainless lemming!), I'd like to oppose Tolkien :) because after all they are 2 writers of fantasy worlds.

      - "Faithless, is he who says farewell when the road darkens."

      - "The old that is strong does not wither,
      Deep roots are not reached by the frost.
      From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
      A light from the shadows shall spring;
      Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
      The crownless again shall be king.”

      - "“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
      "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

      I'm sure Gandhi and Mandela felt countless days helpless on the road to their goal, in the depth of their south-african cells. Mandela's favorite poem is Invictus, not a bad choice.

      Keep the faith, no matter how useless you sometime feel, my friend, don't let discouragement stop you from acting, writing this blog, because you don't know what your smallest actions will lead to in the long run.

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  22. Interesting...Armstrong states that if the DOW closes below 14803 today it would mean lower prices for next week.
    5 min before close the DOW is at 14765 and magically rallies 45 points to 14810!!
    Must have rallied going into a very uncertain long weekend because of good solid fundamentals....ahem...or maybe it was goosed..but that is not possible..is it?

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  23. I meant Eric Sprott said that some gold stocks would advance 3000% not gold itself.

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  24. Dan, Hubert, Concord, Jim; All good points; Actually Egon is a good fading barometer for me; the point I make is that when outofsight price projections are made, then the predictors are setting themselves up to be called out, and that is what I do; they do not bother me, but are in fact amusing; just like when Sinclair claimed he sold 5,000 silver contracts into Hunt sometime back in '79 late; right Jim, I guess the Board and Comex relaxed position limits for you huh? A big lie; steve in sparks

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