tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post6645743389593754205..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold backs off from chart resistanceTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88761613610993036082013-08-31T20:44:52.550-07:002013-08-31T20:44:52.550-07:00I'm splitting my answer in 2 posts, because it...I'm splitting my answer in 2 posts, because it's 2 different topics entirely.<br />About the rot, feeling of helplesness, and feeling demoralized, tough words, and very understandable.<br /><br />I thought I'd run out of quotes and be sucked in the see of discouragement a few times myself in my life, but to Orwel's merciless dark vision of the world (sustained for sure by real dangers, such as media disinformation and all those techniques aiming at reprogramming a normal human being into a brainless lemming!), I'd like to oppose Tolkien :) because after all they are 2 writers of fantasy worlds.<br /><br />- "Faithless, is he who says farewell when the road darkens."<br /><br />- "The old that is strong does not wither,<br />Deep roots are not reached by the frost.<br />From the ashes a fire shall be woken,<br />A light from the shadows shall spring;<br />Renewed shall be blade that was broken,<br />The crownless again shall be king.”<br /><br />- "“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.<br />"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”<br /><br />I'm sure Gandhi and Mandela felt countless days helpless on the road to their goal, in the depth of their south-african cells. Mandela's favorite poem is Invictus, not a bad choice.<br /><br />Keep the faith, no matter how useless you sometime feel, my friend, don't let discouragement stop you from acting, writing this blog, because you don't know what your smallest actions will lead to in the long run. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70682937246454433132013-08-31T20:04:24.034-07:002013-08-31T20:04:24.034-07:00Hi Dan,
Once again, thanks for your detailed answ...Hi Dan,<br /><br />Once again, thanks for your detailed answer.<br />I want first to remind that I highly respect the work and purpose of such websites and Eric's in particular.<br /><br />Second, I totally agreee with you about its long-term orientation.<br /><br />Third, I'm also sharing your view here : "I would rather see them get some metal if they do not have any even if the price of it were to drop lower instead of doing nothing whatsoever."<br /><br />Therefore, the only thing which "separates" us, if I may say, is about the expected results.<br /><br />I am not worried because KWN will not help people optimize their short-term long entry point.<br /><br />I am worried because those very people you and I wish to help make the right decision and buy some physical gold, many times will buy gold via storage companies such as BullionVault or GoldMoney or Goldbroker.<br /><br />My point is :<br />- those people are not Professionals, of course.<br />- they can be highly stressed / emotional --> driven by their emotions.<br />- they can sell their gold just as easily as they bought it (in fact much more easily because buying means opening an account) by one click of a mouse.<br />- they are basically very risk averse, that's why they look for a safety haven --> they don't easily stand the heat of a loss.<br /><br />Because many of them are driven by emotions, are risk averse and can't stand the heat, and can sell their gold back so easily on a whim, I think, that my purpose and yours and Eric's are exactly the same, that it is very important to remind them the whole picture, and also to mention that short-term corrections, even deep, even violent, are a complete part of the game, and that they must acknowledge it, embrace it, accept it before they decide to buy gold and especially what percentage of their capital.<br /><br />Imho, if one doesn't do that, one risks to get the opposite result that one was looking for, that is many of those people will sell back a fair amount of their gold at the first deep violent correction, because it will have come unexpected.<br /><br />So : I'm sharing your goal and your description, but I think those people should be better informed that this ride is not going to be a picnic, for their own good. <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69220426884513030622013-08-31T09:20:23.828-07:002013-08-31T09:20:23.828-07:00Hubert du Haut;
Just keep in mind what I wrote so...Hubert du Haut;<br /><br />Just keep in mind what I wrote some time back and posted up here as a stand alone piece - KWN is not a timing service nor does its mission statement have much to do with trading. It is a big picture oriented website.<br /><br />Some of us here tend to look at everything we read or see through the prism of traders. That is normal because of our occupation. However, we sometimes forget that many of the less sophisticated investors out there are not as tuned in on a day to day basis as we traders are. Those folks need to acquire some physical metal to protect themselves from what many of us feel is coming our way in the future. I would rather see them get some metal if they do not have any even if the price of it were to drop lower instead of doing nothing whatsoever.<br /><br />My own personal view, and it pains me to even say this, is that the United States is now rotting from within. It is rotting first of all, morally and ethically. Our nation is given over to hedonism at the expense of hard work, discipline, self-sacrifice and virtue.<br /><br />Second it is rotting financially which is tied to its massive debt and nearly limitless creation of more paper money/debt to mask these things. <br /><br />Thirdly, it is rotting politically as it is drifting further and further away from its roots as a constitutional republic as the welfare state envelops more and more in its path.<br /><br />I see so many parallels between the US and ancient Rome that it depresses me to no end. I think there is a large contingent out there who feel the same way and one thing we all share in common is a sort of feeling of helplessness as it goes from bad to worse in spite of our efforts to do something about it. We feel as if we are spitting into the eye of a hurricane. That is what demoralizes me.<br /><br />I personally wish that things were such that we could rely on a solid, national currency with a group of leaders that live within their means, respect the rule of law, and understand the concept of being servants to the people who entrusted them with power. Sadly that is no longer the case. We are bankrupt in the truest sense of the word.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65221670215682817912013-08-31T09:02:19.899-07:002013-08-31T09:02:19.899-07:00Dan, Hubert, Concord, Jim; All good points; Actual...Dan, Hubert, Concord, Jim; All good points; Actually Egon is a good fading barometer for me; the point I make is that when outofsight price projections are made, then the predictors are setting themselves up to be called out, and that is what I do; they do not bother me, but are in fact amusing; just like when Sinclair claimed he sold 5,000 silver contracts into Hunt sometime back in '79 late; right Jim, I guess the Board and Comex relaxed position limits for you huh? A big lie; steve in sparks Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85864945631658724422013-08-31T04:06:53.664-07:002013-08-31T04:06:53.664-07:00Hi Hubert Du Haut,
I agree and understand what yo...Hi Hubert Du Haut,<br /><br />I agree and understand what you're saying and was most disappointed with Jim Sinclair and to be honest took the approach of Dan's- I just tune off now. Having said that, I think if those "uneducated" or not so analytical people who make their decisions based on what somebody said on KWN can "learn" from their experiences of following blindly- wouldn't this be a great gift. Sometimes, the greatest learning comes from making big mistakes. In this respect, KWN is doing some people some favours.<br /><br />Anyway, food for thought...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-24343269279874293722013-08-31T00:57:45.855-07:002013-08-31T00:57:45.855-07:00Hi Dan,
I know it for sure, and I respect everyon...Hi Dan,<br /><br />I know it for sure, and I respect everyone's advice.<br />But I'm worried for the "uneducated" readers who will buy too much too high on the wrong impression, only to sell later on at a lower level because they didn't expect a correction at all.<br />I'm sure not upset for myself, as you said, I can judge their position and agree with what you wrote.<br />It's more about the perception of usual lambda readers who discover the website.<br />They'll be scared, buy gold, won't expect a correction and may sell at a lower level because, even unlevereged, some people don't stand the pressure.<br />All I'm saying is : don't forget the sign "risk of violent corrections ahead, even in a bull trend".<br /><br />Wishing you a nice weekend,Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70997136908847818852013-08-30T23:05:31.575-07:002013-08-30T23:05:31.575-07:00Steve, Hubert, Concord;
Can I make a suggestion -...Steve, Hubert, Concord;<br /><br />Can I make a suggestion - It is evident that some of Eric's guests are wildly bullish gold. Let's just accept that they are and not get bent out of shape because of it. In my mind it is the same sort of thing as guys who make predictions for 20,000 DOW and 2200 S&P, etc. They are bulls clear and simple. I do not regard them as frauds or shills - I merely learn to tune them out if their analysis does not fit what I am seeing and move on. <br /><br />You all know that every market has perma bulls, perma bears and some who are in between and much more short term oriented in their approach. Just accept that and let it go. <br /><br />I personally never let anyone's predictions upset me one way or the other any more. I simply do my best to try to figure out which side of the market I want to be on for the short term and hopefully make a bit of money as a trader.<br /><br />There are times when I read comments from some analyst explaining price action in the livestock markets for example which drive me insane because I know how utterly wrong they are. But my chance comes when the same reporters interview me and I get a chance to state the case as I see it. Sometimes, my view is verified by price action; sometimes it is not. It is just the way of markets. If they always behaved the way we figure that they should, all of us here who trade would be wealthy enough to buy our own private islands in the South Pacific complete with beautiful Polynesian women.<br /><br />My advice - don't worry about the predictions of others - just ignore them if they seem too outlandish and let it go at that. Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67639629358710130382013-08-30T21:40:32.893-07:002013-08-30T21:40:32.893-07:00I meant Eric Sprott said that some gold stocks wou...I meant Eric Sprott said that some gold stocks would advance 3000% not gold itself.concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04257549822960081454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-56196881115603894352013-08-30T21:37:20.100-07:002013-08-30T21:37:20.100-07:00What I find even more troubling that EVG can say w...What I find even more troubling that EVG can say what he says and can actually be short gold in interim. My broker knows him and talked to him a while back(three months ago) and found he was interviewing with Eric King talking about the long term picture and short gold. I found it troubling my broker did not. By the way I sure hope we don't have to retrace. <br /><br />Listen to Eric Sprott earlier this week. He talks about gold setting up for 3000% gains. I am immune to this stuff now but once has to understand what has happened the last two years to look at gold objectively.concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04257549822960081454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-89228981389667076582013-08-30T21:27:33.070-07:002013-08-30T21:27:33.070-07:00PS : sorry, I was reminded to mention that my char...PS : sorry, I was reminded to mention that my charts come from prorealtime.com if I want to post them free of charge, so here we go.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17127020619589261142013-08-30T21:18:57.406-07:002013-08-30T21:18:57.406-07:00I must agree with Steve here, not about EVG in par...I must agree with Steve here, not about EVG in particular (I didn't find the link), but because I went to the home page of KWN and here is what I read and memorized first : <br />- Mr X warns of Massive Gold Short Covering and Contagion.<br />- Gold Market now very close to issuing a major buy signal.<br />- A terrifying collapse will plunge the world into total chaos.<br /><br />Put together, those headlines give a sence of urgency to act NOW (collapse, chaos coming) and buy gold (massive short covering on the way, major buy signal).<br /><br />There is once more no warning about : TIMING. POSSIBLE SHORT TERM VIOLENT CORRECTION OR WORSE.<br /><br />Dan, I don't know Eric for sure but if you do...maybe I'm wrong but does he realize that with those headlines, he may harm a lot of unprepared people who will remember only what I stated above, buy a lot of gold and run away at the first rout on gold prices, probably at a lower prices?<br />If I have a humble message to send to Mr King : why do you try to promise too much to your readers by not warning them enough about possible continuation of the downtrend or short-term violent correction? <br /><br />I am writing this today, because I know Dan is interviewed every saturday, and because I feel that gold, precisely NOW, is most vulnerable to a correction than it was throughout all summer.<br />And now is the time when I read such headlines?<br />Mr King, please mention that this is long term, please mention that there can be violent corrections, and that gold may also go down back to 1200 $ or below, because truth is, there are no prophets, your readers are vulnerable to such promises if they don't happen, they are vulnerable to despair because they rely on you as a beacon in this mess.<br /><br />Simply put, just one single chart, Mr King, with all due respect.<br />Below is a QUARTERLY representation of gold chart.<br />How can you say yet that we are back in a long term bull market for certain?<br />I will give you credit for the "very close to issuing signal" and not "issued" indeed. But put together with the other headlines, many readers won't bother : they will buy NOW, maybe at a short-term top, and probably won't understand if gold loses 150 dollars. Don't promise too much in your headlines.<br />In this chart, you see that we made a simple "ligne de poussée" for now, so it will all be about next quarter. If we can't get beyond 1420 $ zone, this figure is a weak figure of Bear continuation, and the inf bollinger band is at 900 $!! <br />All we did by now was react higher (and too fast short-term). It is a long shot before gold re-enters bull market, I'd wait at least that we go beyond 1450 $ and close on a weekly basis to say that. So yes : "very close to issuing" means it DIDN'T YET. Gold can also reverse backwards.<br />http://s13.postimg.org/g6k7b0v9z/gld_q.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17715236805449942382013-08-30T14:07:40.522-07:002013-08-30T14:07:40.522-07:00Interesting...Armstrong states that if the DOW clo...Interesting...Armstrong states that if the DOW closes below 14803 today it would mean lower prices for next week.<br />5 min before close the DOW is at 14765 and magically rallies 45 points to 14810!!<br />Must have rallied going into a very uncertain long weekend because of good solid fundamentals....ahem...or maybe it was goosed..but that is not possible..is it?<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-30733213622142653132013-08-30T13:19:49.060-07:002013-08-30T13:19:49.060-07:00You said it Concord; a real donkey and par for the...You said it Concord; a real donkey and par for the course; have a good wknd; steve in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-18622258615862006362013-08-30T13:16:58.185-07:002013-08-30T13:16:58.185-07:00Egon is at it again, Dan when he extrapolates 1980...Egon is at it again, Dan when he extrapolates 1980 gold at $850 and silver at $50 as being adjusted for inflation to now be worth $7000 gold and $400 silver is patently a terrible lie and shows once again that he is nothing more than a shill and a fraud; if Eric King was your friend you would indicate to him that the people that go to your site are not morons and that we find interviews with clowns like him to be a very bad joke and I do not care if he has 100 years experience in the business and advises the entire world and is a multi billionaire , blah, blah, blah; steve in sparks and have a pleasant labor day wkndAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-88406866630262929892013-08-30T12:50:43.955-07:002013-08-30T12:50:43.955-07:00Steve,
I am from Boston originally. I am a libera...Steve,<br />I am from Boston originally. I am a liberal by conventional definition. But how hypocritical is the foppish war hero talking about war after "leading" the vietnam war vets in anti-war protests. His SAT's were lower than GWB's which tells you all you need to know about his brains versus his blind ambition to have been the second coming of JFK. JFK would be turning over in his grave with the comparison.concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04257549822960081454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42686254724128025842013-08-30T12:39:08.694-07:002013-08-30T12:39:08.694-07:00Hubert Du Haut; Maybe you can help me out, since I...Hubert Du Haut; Maybe you can help me out, since I believe you are either French, Dutch or Belgian? My question is why are the French so bellicose and belligerent when it comes to a forthcoming Syrian attack? If memory serves me correct, French track record over the last 150 years is consistently of losses, via the Russians, Italians, Germans, and Vietnamese, and were only bailed out a few times by the Americans. Why is that? Have a good weekend; swb in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52893162212929877142013-08-30T11:37:46.096-07:002013-08-30T11:37:46.096-07:00"hope you are wrong about gold going down to ..."hope you are wrong about gold going down to 1350-35 area".<br />Again, not saying it is going there.<br />If I were certain of that, I would've sold my whole position and gone short :)<br />All I'm saying is that sooner or later, yes, I expect gold to correct towards the green channel's support. <br />Will it be next or in 6 weeks, I don't have a clue.<br />It's dangerous to make prognosis, because :<br /><br />- on a daily basis, gold is in an uptrend<br />- on a weekly basis, gold is still in a downtrend and getting close to résistances.<br /><br />Will the daily uptrend propagate to the weekly, or will there be a reversal? I don't know yet.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82280819667680782102013-08-30T11:03:16.329-07:002013-08-30T11:03:16.329-07:00Gunboat Kerry, the warrior of the Mekong Delta, wh...Gunboat Kerry, the warrior of the Mekong Delta, what a phony bad, bad joke, right up there with Rumsfeld, cheney, bush, and I could go on and on about the Heinz kept man and weasel; this Syrian situation just sickens me; swb, sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7964481021441867342013-08-30T09:52:08.794-07:002013-08-30T09:52:08.794-07:00Concord; the #'s are either lies or fabricated...Concord; the #'s are either lies or fabricated by government morons who still do not know where 2nd base is in the 7th inning; serves a purpose for hft thieves to rip some profits for an hour or so; guess what? all the #'s get revised a month later anyway; it is all noise; last but not least, I just can not fathom a V-Bottom for the pm's; maybe I am wrong, but I am also flat going into this wknd, except for short Yen; ttyl and have a good wknd, swb in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16672187027367552302013-08-30T09:30:44.189-07:002013-08-30T09:30:44.189-07:00isnt there supposed to be some significant level/r...isnt there supposed to be some significant level/range that, should gold end within it, makes another bullish case...i think it was something like above 1395...i could be off by quite a bit but i read it somewhere, maybe zerohedge, marketwatch or KWN..but yeah, can anyone confirm that? xprecious woodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13762260606374686793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40101161253729269592013-08-30T09:14:27.632-07:002013-08-30T09:14:27.632-07:00yeah i understand.....the run from the lows of 117...yeah i understand.....the run from the lows of 1179 was pretty violent...well, it wasnt that violent but it was too consistent, so i can appreciate a healthy correction to the the 1350 area....i would prefer 1375 ish area...but i must admit i was quite impressed with gold holding today at the 1392/1395 area...and just now its even broken through 1400 (though dropping a bit)...maybe this is in case some weekend action occurs regarding Syria..but i still think the debt ceiling and Fed and macroeconomic news will keep gold relatively strong,...but ive learnt to go with the technical and trading trends despite the unpredictability of some fundamentals like physical gold drying up, war, black swans etc...anyway, i admire ur detail but hope you are wrong about gold going down to 1350-35 area, cos im holding through the weekend...id love Dan to detail the HUI and gold charts for the weekend....precious woodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13762260606374686793noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-71971281027993257772013-08-30T08:52:27.430-07:002013-08-30T08:52:27.430-07:00Steve,
I don't believe any of them. We must b...Steve,<br />I don't believe any of them. We must be in a sinking environment or they wouldn't lie so much. I read that college education has gone up 500% in twenty five years.<br /><br />What does that say about a no inflation world out there? It is all lies.concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04257549822960081454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-91262531996044577542013-08-30T08:24:13.233-07:002013-08-30T08:24:13.233-07:00Does anybody really believe there is value in Mich...Does anybody really believe there is value in Mich Confidence Surveys? 500 respondents is what they poll. swb in sparksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14904783029255616082013-08-30T07:26:44.299-07:002013-08-30T07:26:44.299-07:00Jim...I have no idea :)
What for anyway? Let's...Jim...I have no idea :)<br />What for anyway? Let's see when (if) we get to 35 $ already...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9824208071774767072013-08-30T05:44:30.862-07:002013-08-30T05:44:30.862-07:00Hi Hubert Du Haut,
Id welcome a correction down to...Hi Hubert Du Haut,<br />Id welcome a correction down to 22.00. would love to buy some more at that level for long term hold.<br /><br />After it clears 50 (speculating that it does), where are the resistance zones? Is it a furious move to the upside all the way up to 100 with a few pauses- a hyperbolic style move? Is this what you'd expect?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10366683894545649989noreply@blogger.com