The market is interpreting Larry Summers's withdrawal from consideration as Ben Bernanke's replacement for head of the Federal Reserve as negative for the dollar and thus as a positive for gold this evening. The reason? - Summers's was viewed as a more hawkish replacement for the soon-to-be retiring Bernanke. That leaves the door open further for Yellen, who is viewed as very dovish and thus more inclined to stay the course on the Fed bond buying program.
Gold has responded higher on the news but has run into a solid wall of selling just above key short-term resistance at $1330. The December contract has posted a high thus far of $1336. It will take a further push through this level in either European trading or in the New York session to run the bears out who sold into the news.
I find it rather interesting to note a very large rally in the long bond as the market there is fully one point higher on the same news. In other words, US interest rates on the long end of the curve are dropping with traders seeing a dove replacing Bernanke. Of course the S&P 500 is greeting the Summers news as wildly bullish for US equities with that index clearing 1700 in Asian trade. It looks as if it is Happy Days are Here Again for equity bulls as the punch bowl will be spiked further if the current sentiment now being reflected in this overnight trading is indeed correct.
We will have to closely watch the FOMC meeting for further clues into subsequent action but for now, Wall Street loves it.
I am concerned for gold however - if it cannot clear this overhead chart resistance on news that is obviously impacting the Dollar, the Treasury markets and the equity markets to this extent, then I am not sure exactly what it is going to take to move it into a sustained uptrend. I do want to note however that there is widespread weakness in the grain markets this evening as wide swaths of the Midwest were hit with significant rains over the weekend. That will tend to pressure food prices somewhat if this downward trend continues and thus take some of the heat off the food inflation front. Also undercutting strength in gold this evening is weakness in crude oil/energies.
We wait to see what New York bring us....
Sunday, September 15, 2013
Saturday, September 14, 2013
Trader Dan Interviewed at King World News Markets and Metals Wrap
Please click on the following link to listen in to my regular weekly audio interview with Eric King over at the KWN Markets and Metals Wrap.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/9/14_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/9/14_KWN_Weekly_Metals_Wrap.html
Friday, September 13, 2013
Surprise Late Session Rally in Gold
I just completed my weekend interview with Eric King over at King World News for the Metals Wrap. We were discussing the very late in the session price action in gold and talking about the impact of the news story that he broke with Andrew Maguire about the whistleblowers from Morgan and the gold price manipulation scheme.
I remarked at how unexpected the late-in-the-day rally was to me and was wondering what might have caused the surge in volume late on a Friday to produce it.
It certainly appears that as the story made the rounds, a lot of interest was generated in buying both from fresh longs now looking for a bottom as a result and some nervous bears who were unsure how the market would react to it.
We now await the open of trade in Asia Sunday evening to see how traders over there will react to the story and whether or not gold can at least clear the $1330 level to signal whether or not another short term bottom is in the market.
I am putting up a THREE HOUR CHART, to show you the spike upward during the last three hours of trading. I also noticed that for a Friday afternoon, the volume was unusually high. Normally, we see hardly any volume whatsoever that time of the day on a Friday as most traders are long gone for the weekend.
Should be interesting Sunday night - just not sure what we are going to get....
I remarked at how unexpected the late-in-the-day rally was to me and was wondering what might have caused the surge in volume late on a Friday to produce it.
It certainly appears that as the story made the rounds, a lot of interest was generated in buying both from fresh longs now looking for a bottom as a result and some nervous bears who were unsure how the market would react to it.
We now await the open of trade in Asia Sunday evening to see how traders over there will react to the story and whether or not gold can at least clear the $1330 level to signal whether or not another short term bottom is in the market.
I am putting up a THREE HOUR CHART, to show you the spike upward during the last three hours of trading. I also noticed that for a Friday afternoon, the volume was unusually high. Normally, we see hardly any volume whatsoever that time of the day on a Friday as most traders are long gone for the weekend.
Should be interesting Sunday night - just not sure what we are going to get....
Same Play; Different Act for Gold
Nothing has changed in the least iota for gold - it continues to drop through one support level after another as traders/investors simply have no incentive/desire to chase this market higher. If anything, they are shorting it.
This is why I have been trying to publicly rebut that nonsense out there that gold is in backwardation and is therefore wildly bullish. Guess what? The market action tells me that it could care less about that sort of claptrap. You will get some who should recant this stuff but instead they will blame it on the nefarious bullion banks instead.
Also, while JP Morgan was the big buyer/stopper during last month's gold delivery process, this month they have been issuers/sellers out of their House account, albeit not to the same extent that they were buying last month.
Look, I agree that the feds have a vested interest in keeping the gold price under wraps as it competes directly with the US Dollar but we have a proven track record of the Commitment of Traders for over 12 years now detailing that the nasty bullion banks are always selling DURING UP MOVES... if they do anything while price is breaking lower, they are covering shorts or buying. The current wave of selling that has been occurring in the gold market this week is largely due to hedge funds, not the bullion banks.
We will get this week's report later on today and I can analyze it then but it should be noted that it will not include the price action from Wednesday through today and I can tell you fairly confidently that it was not bullion bank selling that took the market down through $1360 - $1350 and again through $1320. It was hedge funds... what the bullion banks were doing was selling up near $1400 as the remaining vestiges of hedge fund shorts who were exiting were buying. They provide the cap and then let the hedge fund computers take over but they DO NOT CHASE PRICE LOWER. PERIOD!
Arguing against the price action is a fool's errand and is the last refuge for those who are wrong and cannot admit it. As I have said many times, there is nothing to be ashamed at when one is wrong about a market's direction. We all have been there ( I surely have many times) as we are all mere mortals and are not omniscient (there is only one Being that is). The key is to quickly admit that the market does not agree with you and take corrective action if you are a trader so as to avoid suffering serious losses. Doggedly refusing to acknowledge the obvious however is a recipe for disaster especially in the futures markets where the extreme leverage can inflict such carnage in such a short period of time.
What I am taking away from the recent price action is that gold is back to experiencing "Tapering" jitters. Hedge funds apparently are more and more losing their concerns about the degree or extent of any Fed tapering and thus are becoming emboldened to play gold from the short side as there is yet no solid evidence of widespread inflation issues. Just today Goldman came out with a recommendation for investors to use any bouts of weakness in the equity markets to accumulate stocks as they see a "dovish" tapering of only $10 billion per month if the Fed moves in that direction.
While that may be good for stocks in Goldman's view, apparently gold is getting increasingly nervous about it.
Incidentally, one has to marvel at how the Dow people included Goldman and Visa in the Dow "INDUSTRIALS". My suggestion is that they just scrap the entire term and replace it with "those stocks which go up". I am waiting for them to throw out another one of the Dow 30 and replace it with Tesla.
There is a mixed signal coming from the food sector where the grain markets have become a two-sided affair. On the one hand, the corn market finally experienced an epiphany today as it comes to terms with what looks like a record breaking corn crop. Corn prices scored a THREE YEAR LOW today. Corn is such an integral part of the protein side of our diets as it is the main feed ingredient for cattle, hogs and poultry. With falling corn prices hopefully comes cheaper meat/poultry over the longer term although near terms issues will dictate current price levels. That will tend to keep food prices a bit tamer than they would have otherwise been thus pulling away a key part of the inflation picture.
On the other hand, soybeans have been on a tear of late as the recent bout of hot/dry weather over large parts of the Midwest have turned what at one time looked like a record breaking crop into a much lower than originally expected national yield. This will impact poultry producers and hog producers to a certain extent but not nearly as much as corn will impact them in the other direction in my view.
All in all, I do not see the same upward price pressures in the food sector looking out as I did at this time last year. It could be some of the eagerness to press gold lower is coming from this concern. For whatever the reason, the gold market is simply not attracting sufficient buying interest from Western investors to drive it higher at the current time.
About the only positive that I could see in the gold sector today was the fact that the HUI did not implode even though it remains lower as I type these comments.
The yield on the Ten Year remains just shy of the 3% level having backed off from that key point this week. Still, when one considers that at the first of May the yield was 1.6%, that is rather stunning for the degree of increase in less than 5 months. After all, it has almost doubled!
As far as the gold chart goes - it is the same from yesterday except the price is lower. Gold is perched quite precariously right at a chart support level, which if it does not hold, will allow the market to fall through psychological support at the $1300 level. It barely held on today moving to within less than $5 before rebounding somewhat. It is trying to hold here in the afternoon which is constructive but I need to see this market push back above $1330 before I would be a bit more comfortable or optimistic about it.
The thing that gets my attention is the fact that the ADX line is continuing to rise as the price moves lower. This is indicative of a market that is entering a trending phase but as I stated yesterday, I generally like to see the ADX ABOVE the 20 level to confirm that. The indicator does however show the bears currently in control of the market with the market unable to stay above the 50 day moving average as it did yesterday. The prognosis near term is for further weakness unless the bulls can come out swinging Sunday evening and force some sort of abrupt turnaround.
This is why I have been trying to publicly rebut that nonsense out there that gold is in backwardation and is therefore wildly bullish. Guess what? The market action tells me that it could care less about that sort of claptrap. You will get some who should recant this stuff but instead they will blame it on the nefarious bullion banks instead.
Also, while JP Morgan was the big buyer/stopper during last month's gold delivery process, this month they have been issuers/sellers out of their House account, albeit not to the same extent that they were buying last month.
Look, I agree that the feds have a vested interest in keeping the gold price under wraps as it competes directly with the US Dollar but we have a proven track record of the Commitment of Traders for over 12 years now detailing that the nasty bullion banks are always selling DURING UP MOVES... if they do anything while price is breaking lower, they are covering shorts or buying. The current wave of selling that has been occurring in the gold market this week is largely due to hedge funds, not the bullion banks.
We will get this week's report later on today and I can analyze it then but it should be noted that it will not include the price action from Wednesday through today and I can tell you fairly confidently that it was not bullion bank selling that took the market down through $1360 - $1350 and again through $1320. It was hedge funds... what the bullion banks were doing was selling up near $1400 as the remaining vestiges of hedge fund shorts who were exiting were buying. They provide the cap and then let the hedge fund computers take over but they DO NOT CHASE PRICE LOWER. PERIOD!
Arguing against the price action is a fool's errand and is the last refuge for those who are wrong and cannot admit it. As I have said many times, there is nothing to be ashamed at when one is wrong about a market's direction. We all have been there ( I surely have many times) as we are all mere mortals and are not omniscient (there is only one Being that is). The key is to quickly admit that the market does not agree with you and take corrective action if you are a trader so as to avoid suffering serious losses. Doggedly refusing to acknowledge the obvious however is a recipe for disaster especially in the futures markets where the extreme leverage can inflict such carnage in such a short period of time.
What I am taking away from the recent price action is that gold is back to experiencing "Tapering" jitters. Hedge funds apparently are more and more losing their concerns about the degree or extent of any Fed tapering and thus are becoming emboldened to play gold from the short side as there is yet no solid evidence of widespread inflation issues. Just today Goldman came out with a recommendation for investors to use any bouts of weakness in the equity markets to accumulate stocks as they see a "dovish" tapering of only $10 billion per month if the Fed moves in that direction.
While that may be good for stocks in Goldman's view, apparently gold is getting increasingly nervous about it.
Incidentally, one has to marvel at how the Dow people included Goldman and Visa in the Dow "INDUSTRIALS". My suggestion is that they just scrap the entire term and replace it with "those stocks which go up". I am waiting for them to throw out another one of the Dow 30 and replace it with Tesla.
There is a mixed signal coming from the food sector where the grain markets have become a two-sided affair. On the one hand, the corn market finally experienced an epiphany today as it comes to terms with what looks like a record breaking corn crop. Corn prices scored a THREE YEAR LOW today. Corn is such an integral part of the protein side of our diets as it is the main feed ingredient for cattle, hogs and poultry. With falling corn prices hopefully comes cheaper meat/poultry over the longer term although near terms issues will dictate current price levels. That will tend to keep food prices a bit tamer than they would have otherwise been thus pulling away a key part of the inflation picture.
On the other hand, soybeans have been on a tear of late as the recent bout of hot/dry weather over large parts of the Midwest have turned what at one time looked like a record breaking crop into a much lower than originally expected national yield. This will impact poultry producers and hog producers to a certain extent but not nearly as much as corn will impact them in the other direction in my view.
All in all, I do not see the same upward price pressures in the food sector looking out as I did at this time last year. It could be some of the eagerness to press gold lower is coming from this concern. For whatever the reason, the gold market is simply not attracting sufficient buying interest from Western investors to drive it higher at the current time.
About the only positive that I could see in the gold sector today was the fact that the HUI did not implode even though it remains lower as I type these comments.
The yield on the Ten Year remains just shy of the 3% level having backed off from that key point this week. Still, when one considers that at the first of May the yield was 1.6%, that is rather stunning for the degree of increase in less than 5 months. After all, it has almost doubled!
As far as the gold chart goes - it is the same from yesterday except the price is lower. Gold is perched quite precariously right at a chart support level, which if it does not hold, will allow the market to fall through psychological support at the $1300 level. It barely held on today moving to within less than $5 before rebounding somewhat. It is trying to hold here in the afternoon which is constructive but I need to see this market push back above $1330 before I would be a bit more comfortable or optimistic about it.
The thing that gets my attention is the fact that the ADX line is continuing to rise as the price moves lower. This is indicative of a market that is entering a trending phase but as I stated yesterday, I generally like to see the ADX ABOVE the 20 level to confirm that. The indicator does however show the bears currently in control of the market with the market unable to stay above the 50 day moving average as it did yesterday. The prognosis near term is for further weakness unless the bulls can come out swinging Sunday evening and force some sort of abrupt turnaround.
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Gold gets "Whack-A-Moled"
Some of you might remember that cheapie little kids game called "Whack A Mole" in which you get a plastic hammer in order to beat the crap out of the little mole that sticks its head up through the plastic opening in the slide. Well, that is what gold reminded me of today. All it took for the metal to get "whacked" down through support was a jobless claims number. Once that hit the wires it was all downhill for the metal. And yes, it is not helping matters none that the Syria situation has turned into "Peace in our Times" as far as traders are concerned.
I mentioned in yesterday's piece that gold could drop down into the next support level near $1330 - $1325 should its support level give way. That is where it is currently sitting and truthfully, it looks like bears are growling and wanting more. If the market cannot hold above $1320, it can easily drop down to test the psychologically important $1300 level. Bulls would not want to see gold lose its "13" handle as that would be devastating psychologically, especially during a time of the year in which we generally have pretty hefty physical offtake over in Asia ahead of the festival seasons.
We simply have to wait and see what kind of response we get to the various economic data releases that are hitting the wire in order to get a better feel as to whether or not gold is going to hold support or not. The only thing I believe I can clearly say is that the bears have regained the short-term momentum in this market.
The following chart notes the ADX indicator which I like to use to judge trend strength. Notice that the ADX line has been moving lower, indicative of a LACK OF TREND. It is now rising, albeit ever so slightly while the -DMI ( Negative Directional Indicator) is also rising and is trading above the + DMI ( Positive Directional Indicator - blue line). That is very clear - the market is moving sideways to lower with bearish forces in control. I do not know how to spell it out any clearer.
The shorter term 10 day moving average has completed a downside cross of the 20 day moving average which is a negative signal. I will be the first to admit that moving averages can be useless during phases in which markets are choppy as they can generate signals which can get you whipsawed but the facts are that the hedge funds are still in love with the things and thus they cannot be ignored. The fact that the price has now dropped below all four of the moving averages noted on this chart will get the attention of their algos... My thinking is that hedge funds are in the process of rebuilding those recently lifted short positions - the ones they were covering for most of the last two months and what drove the price over $200 off the low. That is not what any bulls want to hear right now. Perhaps some news will hit the wires that demands no break or let up whatsoever in the Fed Bond Buying adventure but that is an unknown and we have to work with what we have at the current time.
The HUI fell completely apart today ( again).... it has major support near 220 - 217 which it had better hold or else....
Silver proved just how fickle it can be as it was blasted into the nether regions today. The 50 day moving average is about 50 cents or so below today's close ( $21.38).... one would expect it to encounter some buying near that level if nothing else from some short covering. If not, the charts indicate a drop into a former congestion zone from $20.25 - $19.75.
Even as I type these late afternoon comments, price for both of the metals is continuing to sink lower....the damage on the charts is significant once again with the bulls under the gun to hold the market here or face increased losses.
I mentioned in yesterday's piece that gold could drop down into the next support level near $1330 - $1325 should its support level give way. That is where it is currently sitting and truthfully, it looks like bears are growling and wanting more. If the market cannot hold above $1320, it can easily drop down to test the psychologically important $1300 level. Bulls would not want to see gold lose its "13" handle as that would be devastating psychologically, especially during a time of the year in which we generally have pretty hefty physical offtake over in Asia ahead of the festival seasons.
We simply have to wait and see what kind of response we get to the various economic data releases that are hitting the wire in order to get a better feel as to whether or not gold is going to hold support or not. The only thing I believe I can clearly say is that the bears have regained the short-term momentum in this market.
The following chart notes the ADX indicator which I like to use to judge trend strength. Notice that the ADX line has been moving lower, indicative of a LACK OF TREND. It is now rising, albeit ever so slightly while the -DMI ( Negative Directional Indicator) is also rising and is trading above the + DMI ( Positive Directional Indicator - blue line). That is very clear - the market is moving sideways to lower with bearish forces in control. I do not know how to spell it out any clearer.
The shorter term 10 day moving average has completed a downside cross of the 20 day moving average which is a negative signal. I will be the first to admit that moving averages can be useless during phases in which markets are choppy as they can generate signals which can get you whipsawed but the facts are that the hedge funds are still in love with the things and thus they cannot be ignored. The fact that the price has now dropped below all four of the moving averages noted on this chart will get the attention of their algos... My thinking is that hedge funds are in the process of rebuilding those recently lifted short positions - the ones they were covering for most of the last two months and what drove the price over $200 off the low. That is not what any bulls want to hear right now. Perhaps some news will hit the wires that demands no break or let up whatsoever in the Fed Bond Buying adventure but that is an unknown and we have to work with what we have at the current time.
The HUI fell completely apart today ( again).... it has major support near 220 - 217 which it had better hold or else....
Silver proved just how fickle it can be as it was blasted into the nether regions today. The 50 day moving average is about 50 cents or so below today's close ( $21.38).... one would expect it to encounter some buying near that level if nothing else from some short covering. If not, the charts indicate a drop into a former congestion zone from $20.25 - $19.75.
Even as I type these late afternoon comments, price for both of the metals is continuing to sink lower....the damage on the charts is significant once again with the bulls under the gun to hold the market here or face increased losses.
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Gold looks hesitant
By now it should be obvious that any Syrian premium that was in the gold market has now been effectively rung out. Price gains due to geopolitical events tend to be quite fleeting unless the events escalate which in this case they did not. As far as the market is now concerned, Syria is off the map and most traders realize nothing is going to happen over there to change the status quo in the least bit.
That means other drivers for gold are now coming back into focus. While the US dollar is weaker today, it is not helping gold much with the exception of perhaps allowing it to remain above an important level of chart support. From my perspective, the markets looks "heavy".
I keep coming back to the same thing I have been focusing on for the last couple of weeks now - namely - the recent gains in gold have come mainly from hedge fund short covering as their short positions had become rather large from an historical perspective. Now that they have covered a large number of those shorts ( bought them back) there is simply no additional source of buying on a large enough scale to take the market through important overhead chart resistance levels. Large speculators do not have any technical reasons to chase the price of the metal higher and thus they are NOT ENTERING this market in large numbers. Without thrust to counteract the pull of gravity, markets will tend to follow the path of least resistance and that is lower. It will take some sort of economic data news release to trigger any strong, concerted, and more importantly, SUSTAINED NEW BUYING.
As you can see from the price chart, gold is perched right on top of an important chart support level that extends from $1360 - $1355 or so. Bears are gunning to break it down through this region for they realize, if they do, that price will fall rather rapidly to $1325 - $1320. For the bulls to get anything going beyond this boring, nothing-to-the-upside aspect, they will need to clear $1380 at a bare minimum but more importantly, recapture that "14" handle.
The fact that the mining shares seem rather comatose right now is not aiding the cause of the metal. Also, it does not help gold to see interest rates rising here in the US especially since most investors believe that inflation is a non-existent threat for the time being.
The one thing gold has going for it right now is that it is into a period in which it normally is strong from a seasonal perspective. That brings us to same factors which have always been supportive, namely far-Eastern buying of the metal. The question is the same however as it has been for some time now - can the physical market demand for the metal be enough to support a market which is lacking any serious investment demand from the West? The answer to that question is also the same - Yes, the physical market demand can put a floor of support under the gold price but it is important to understand that this demand, while it can be most impressive, is insufficient to generate a sustained bullish uptrend. That will not happen unless western based investors decide to chase the price higher, something which they are not currently doing.
One more thing - at the risk of beating a dead horse - you will note that for all this erroneous talk of "backwardation", the gold price simply cannot make much headway to the upside.
That means other drivers for gold are now coming back into focus. While the US dollar is weaker today, it is not helping gold much with the exception of perhaps allowing it to remain above an important level of chart support. From my perspective, the markets looks "heavy".
I keep coming back to the same thing I have been focusing on for the last couple of weeks now - namely - the recent gains in gold have come mainly from hedge fund short covering as their short positions had become rather large from an historical perspective. Now that they have covered a large number of those shorts ( bought them back) there is simply no additional source of buying on a large enough scale to take the market through important overhead chart resistance levels. Large speculators do not have any technical reasons to chase the price of the metal higher and thus they are NOT ENTERING this market in large numbers. Without thrust to counteract the pull of gravity, markets will tend to follow the path of least resistance and that is lower. It will take some sort of economic data news release to trigger any strong, concerted, and more importantly, SUSTAINED NEW BUYING.
As you can see from the price chart, gold is perched right on top of an important chart support level that extends from $1360 - $1355 or so. Bears are gunning to break it down through this region for they realize, if they do, that price will fall rather rapidly to $1325 - $1320. For the bulls to get anything going beyond this boring, nothing-to-the-upside aspect, they will need to clear $1380 at a bare minimum but more importantly, recapture that "14" handle.
The fact that the mining shares seem rather comatose right now is not aiding the cause of the metal. Also, it does not help gold to see interest rates rising here in the US especially since most investors believe that inflation is a non-existent threat for the time being.
The one thing gold has going for it right now is that it is into a period in which it normally is strong from a seasonal perspective. That brings us to same factors which have always been supportive, namely far-Eastern buying of the metal. The question is the same however as it has been for some time now - can the physical market demand for the metal be enough to support a market which is lacking any serious investment demand from the West? The answer to that question is also the same - Yes, the physical market demand can put a floor of support under the gold price but it is important to understand that this demand, while it can be most impressive, is insufficient to generate a sustained bullish uptrend. That will not happen unless western based investors decide to chase the price higher, something which they are not currently doing.
One more thing - at the risk of beating a dead horse - you will note that for all this erroneous talk of "backwardation", the gold price simply cannot make much headway to the upside.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Miners' Hedging back in the News
While reading through some of the newswires stories this AM, I came across an interesting report about Pan American Silver.
You might recall that I had recently written that I believed we were going to see the increased use of hedging among gold and silver miners in order to get themselves some downside price protection and to actually lock in some profits during a period in time of wildly unpredictable price swings in the precious metals.
The story from Down Jones reports comments from CEO Geoff Burns as stating that PAAS had recently instituted hedges in order to reduce risk originating from the wild price swings. Here is his quote:
"Our action may have inadvertently sent the wrong message to the market and to our shareholders about our hedging philosophy and our view of the long-term prospects for silver and gold".
He also stated that he was "considerably more optimistic" about the short term prospects for both metals.
"More importantly, we need to unequivocally reassure our shareholders that the company's fundamental philosophy is still that of not hedging our precious metal production, thereby providing maximum exposure to the price of silver".
The report went on to say that PAAS had entered into forward contracts ( a means of hedging) 20% of its forecasted silver production and 18% of gold production.
They are now delivering the metal and repurchasing in order to close out all of these forward contracts before the end of the current year.
The thing I came away from reading the report is that the company instituted these hedges as part of "a short-term tactical response" to market conditions.
Apparently PAAS feels that the worst of the price decline in the precious metals is over. Remember, this is the thinking of one mining company but I did find it interesting that they were willing to employ some strategic hedging. They are to be commended for that in my opinion as mining companies should not be in the business of losing profits from mining operations. If they can lock in a decent profit on some of their production and mitigate or eliminate that risk, then they are wise to do so.
I would suggest that mining companies do not have the best track record when it comes to the prediction of gold and silver prices. I am of the opinion that any business, whether it be mining, agriculture, etc., that does not take steps to mitigate price risk is taking reckless chances with its shareholders' wealth. It in essence, has become a speculator in its own right. As a speculator, I do not need any mining company I might have chosen to invest in to be speculating on my behalf. I want them to show CONSISTENT and GROWING profits. If hedging is a means to do that, then so be it. I would much rather have a company that misses some upside rather than one that becomes unprofitable and ends up losing money for me. Heck, I can do that easily enough myself as a commodity trader!
You might recall that I had recently written that I believed we were going to see the increased use of hedging among gold and silver miners in order to get themselves some downside price protection and to actually lock in some profits during a period in time of wildly unpredictable price swings in the precious metals.
The story from Down Jones reports comments from CEO Geoff Burns as stating that PAAS had recently instituted hedges in order to reduce risk originating from the wild price swings. Here is his quote:
"Our action may have inadvertently sent the wrong message to the market and to our shareholders about our hedging philosophy and our view of the long-term prospects for silver and gold".
He also stated that he was "considerably more optimistic" about the short term prospects for both metals.
"More importantly, we need to unequivocally reassure our shareholders that the company's fundamental philosophy is still that of not hedging our precious metal production, thereby providing maximum exposure to the price of silver".
The report went on to say that PAAS had entered into forward contracts ( a means of hedging) 20% of its forecasted silver production and 18% of gold production.
They are now delivering the metal and repurchasing in order to close out all of these forward contracts before the end of the current year.
The thing I came away from reading the report is that the company instituted these hedges as part of "a short-term tactical response" to market conditions.
Apparently PAAS feels that the worst of the price decline in the precious metals is over. Remember, this is the thinking of one mining company but I did find it interesting that they were willing to employ some strategic hedging. They are to be commended for that in my opinion as mining companies should not be in the business of losing profits from mining operations. If they can lock in a decent profit on some of their production and mitigate or eliminate that risk, then they are wise to do so.
I would suggest that mining companies do not have the best track record when it comes to the prediction of gold and silver prices. I am of the opinion that any business, whether it be mining, agriculture, etc., that does not take steps to mitigate price risk is taking reckless chances with its shareholders' wealth. It in essence, has become a speculator in its own right. As a speculator, I do not need any mining company I might have chosen to invest in to be speculating on my behalf. I want them to show CONSISTENT and GROWING profits. If hedging is a means to do that, then so be it. I would much rather have a company that misses some upside rather than one that becomes unprofitable and ends up losing money for me. Heck, I can do that easily enough myself as a commodity trader!
Monday, September 9, 2013
No Worries in the Equity Markets
It is interesting to watch the day to day shifts in sentiment among traders/investors as the news headlines change in regards to Syria.
President Putin just made a master stroke of genius in taking our Keystone Cops bumbling leaders to school, i. e., Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, ( you know that fierce warrior who intimated that any punitive stroke of Syria inflicted by the US would be itty, bitty, teeny, tiny.) I am reminded of Alan Jackson's classic C&W hit, "It's all Right to be Little Bitty".
Seems as if no one in the Administration expected Putin to seize upon their hapless confusion and suggest that Assad should put his chemical weapons under international supervision. Whoops! there goes the imperative to punish Assad swiftly!
The markets sure seem to take it that way because it was off to the races in the equity world again today with the DOW pushing past 15,000 and the S&P closing on its session high.
Take a look at the S&P 500 chart - it has pushed right back up to the 50 day moving average once again after plunging below it on Syria fears.
Gold, after looking like it was going to try to push through $1400, swiftly succumbed to selling pressure in spite of the strength in the Euro. It sure does seem as if that "14" handle is proving to be difficult for the metal to hold right now. Same goes for silver in the sense that maintaining itself above the $24 level for any length of time is also elusive. As mentioned in the KWN Metals Wrap over the weekend, both of these markets need a steady influx of brand new, eager, speculative buyers to sustain their upward path and right now they are NOT getting that. They will not unless they can first clear those overhead chart resistance levels mentioned in that interview.
As we were reminded by last week's horrific payrolls number, the US economy is limping along with many Americans suffering and unable to secure viable FULL TIME employment. That does not apparently matter to Wall Street however.
I have been relatively quiet of late in regards to commenting on market action merely because I simply do not seem to have any clear sense of where some of these markets are heading from day to day. Reactions to various economic data releases, many which conflict the previous day's release, are unpredictable at best and bizarre at worst. To watch a market move higher on rotten economic news merely because it would argue for a delay in any Federal Reserve Tapering activity is clear evidence to this long-time trader that our financial market system no longer has much, if any, connection to anything real.
Still one cannot argue with the tape if they hope to be profitable as a trader and that means you either have to hold your nose and take your positions accordingly or do nothing and sit on the sidelines. Doing nothing however as a trader means no income so you have little if any choice but to roll with the tide.
Personally, America's nakedness is being exposed for the entire world to see. We are naked politically with a buffoon and his crew for our leaders, a man who has become a laughingstock outside of his adoring sycophants here in the US media. We are naked financially with a debt the size of which boggles ones mind if they are honest and clear-thinking. We are naked ethically which can be seen in the degeneracy our entertainment industry with the trash that it regularly spews out. We are naked intellectually, because we are to damned ignorant to learn from the lessons of history and lastly we are naked spiritually, because we have become gods unto ourselves.
So much for my soapbox for today. Watching the farce that this nation is becoming is too much for me to take without hoping that there are millions of my fellow citizens who feel the same way.
As far as gold goes, it needs a breakout on the technical price charts to get anything exciting going and to clear it from the range trade it is currently in.
President Putin just made a master stroke of genius in taking our Keystone Cops bumbling leaders to school, i. e., Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, ( you know that fierce warrior who intimated that any punitive stroke of Syria inflicted by the US would be itty, bitty, teeny, tiny.) I am reminded of Alan Jackson's classic C&W hit, "It's all Right to be Little Bitty".
Seems as if no one in the Administration expected Putin to seize upon their hapless confusion and suggest that Assad should put his chemical weapons under international supervision. Whoops! there goes the imperative to punish Assad swiftly!
The markets sure seem to take it that way because it was off to the races in the equity world again today with the DOW pushing past 15,000 and the S&P closing on its session high.
Take a look at the S&P 500 chart - it has pushed right back up to the 50 day moving average once again after plunging below it on Syria fears.
Gold, after looking like it was going to try to push through $1400, swiftly succumbed to selling pressure in spite of the strength in the Euro. It sure does seem as if that "14" handle is proving to be difficult for the metal to hold right now. Same goes for silver in the sense that maintaining itself above the $24 level for any length of time is also elusive. As mentioned in the KWN Metals Wrap over the weekend, both of these markets need a steady influx of brand new, eager, speculative buyers to sustain their upward path and right now they are NOT getting that. They will not unless they can first clear those overhead chart resistance levels mentioned in that interview.
As we were reminded by last week's horrific payrolls number, the US economy is limping along with many Americans suffering and unable to secure viable FULL TIME employment. That does not apparently matter to Wall Street however.
I have been relatively quiet of late in regards to commenting on market action merely because I simply do not seem to have any clear sense of where some of these markets are heading from day to day. Reactions to various economic data releases, many which conflict the previous day's release, are unpredictable at best and bizarre at worst. To watch a market move higher on rotten economic news merely because it would argue for a delay in any Federal Reserve Tapering activity is clear evidence to this long-time trader that our financial market system no longer has much, if any, connection to anything real.
Still one cannot argue with the tape if they hope to be profitable as a trader and that means you either have to hold your nose and take your positions accordingly or do nothing and sit on the sidelines. Doing nothing however as a trader means no income so you have little if any choice but to roll with the tide.
Personally, America's nakedness is being exposed for the entire world to see. We are naked politically with a buffoon and his crew for our leaders, a man who has become a laughingstock outside of his adoring sycophants here in the US media. We are naked financially with a debt the size of which boggles ones mind if they are honest and clear-thinking. We are naked ethically which can be seen in the degeneracy our entertainment industry with the trash that it regularly spews out. We are naked intellectually, because we are to damned ignorant to learn from the lessons of history and lastly we are naked spiritually, because we have become gods unto ourselves.
So much for my soapbox for today. Watching the farce that this nation is becoming is too much for me to take without hoping that there are millions of my fellow citizens who feel the same way.
As far as gold goes, it needs a breakout on the technical price charts to get anything exciting going and to clear it from the range trade it is currently in.
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