“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


To continue following Trader Dan, please sign up for Trader Dan's World at the link on the sidebar to receive a 1 month, no obligation, trial membership



Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Gold looks hesitant

By now it should be obvious that any Syrian premium that was in the gold market has now been effectively rung out. Price gains due to geopolitical events tend to be quite fleeting unless the events escalate which in this case they did not. As far as the market is now concerned, Syria is off the map and most traders realize nothing is going to happen over there to change the status quo in the least bit.

That means other drivers for gold are now coming back into focus. While the US dollar is weaker today, it is not helping gold much with the exception of perhaps allowing it to remain above an important level of chart support. From my perspective, the markets looks "heavy".

I keep coming back to the same thing I have been focusing on for the last couple of weeks now - namely - the recent gains in gold have come mainly from hedge fund short covering as their short positions had become rather large from an historical perspective. Now that they have covered a large number of those shorts ( bought them back) there is simply no additional source of buying on a large enough scale to take the market through important overhead chart resistance levels. Large speculators do not have any technical reasons to chase the price of the metal higher and thus they are NOT ENTERING this market in large numbers. Without thrust to counteract the pull of gravity, markets will tend to follow the path of least resistance and that is lower. It will take some sort of economic data news release to trigger any strong, concerted, and more importantly, SUSTAINED NEW BUYING.

As you can see from the price chart, gold is perched right on top of an important chart support level that extends from $1360 - $1355 or so. Bears are gunning to break it down through this region for they realize, if they do, that price will fall rather rapidly to $1325 - $1320. For the bulls to get anything going beyond this boring, nothing-to-the-upside aspect, they will need to clear $1380 at a bare minimum but more importantly, recapture that "14" handle.



The fact that the mining shares seem rather comatose right now is not aiding the cause of the metal. Also, it does not help gold to see interest rates rising here in the US especially since most investors believe that inflation is a non-existent threat for the time being.

The one thing gold has going for it right now is that it is into a period in which it normally is strong from a seasonal perspective. That brings us to same factors which have always been supportive, namely far-Eastern buying of the metal. The question is the same however as it has been for some time now - can the physical market demand for the metal be enough to support a market which is lacking any serious investment demand from the West? The answer to that question is also the same - Yes, the physical market demand can put a floor of support under the gold price but it is important to understand that this demand, while it can be most impressive, is insufficient to generate a sustained bullish uptrend. That will not happen unless western based investors decide to chase the price higher, something which they are not currently doing.

One more thing - at the risk of beating a dead horse - you will note that for all this erroneous talk of "backwardation", the gold price simply cannot make much headway to the upside.

68 comments:

  1. Dan,

    Too tired anymore. I will not feed the monster. I am going away for awhile, it is exhausting and this country is totally out of hand. The million man muslim march in DC just put me over the edge. NO MORE MONEY IN THIS or any other market PERIOD. Not until the thing crashes. It needs to CRASH. Then I will go all in on the miners, not until these bozos (FED and Banks) lose control. I hate JPM/GS and the remaing banks at this point. My hatred is hindering any good decisions that could come my way. Good luck all!! Look I call all over the COUNTRY for capex expenditures and there are not many industries doing much these days. So Mark you are FOS, good luck I hope you go long and get DRUBBED on your Glam stocks. I think we are on the verge at this point, and I am not going down.

    ReplyDelete
  2. IN OTHER WORDS I AM OUT ALL STOCKS, definitely BONDS!!! Good luck all. Buying another .308 multi mag purchase today. Seems like the better buy. Armalite makes a helluva M1 type asset. Invest wisely all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. White Wolf; You need to step back, take a breath and relax. If you want , I can trade for you. steve in sparks

      Delete
    2. I just happen to think that Stocks are way overvalued based on top line and bottom line squeezes at this point. Additionally, gold and gold stocks seem like they are going to do the last dip to fill the "head and shoulders" Jessee is looking for. I am not interested in losing another 15% for now. I am very serious however about the AR-10 from Armalite. It is a very nice .308 caliber that accepts magpul mags that can be purchased out of my state in any capacity one might need. Hey I do not live in Nevada, but rather near enough to DC to smell it. If the taper comes, I may need every firing device I can find around these parts. I was kid when DC was burning in 1968; and with the MMM march and Washingtons refusal to allow the Bikers to ride through; I have seen enough. I see how the administration is at Intl politics (absolutely disheartening to see PUTNIN destroy our DC leadership. There is a great divide and if the timing is right, this thing will be awful. I will ride the shoulder move up but am going to wait until then. No stocks are glam stocks for me. I know a thing about Leverage, and the P/E's, intl politics, and Fed/MSM have me tapped out on nerves at this point. I appreciate it, but no, I wouldn't let Jamie Dimon trade my $ right now. Thanks anyhow and good luck. Steve, you should look up those AR 10's they are SWEET.

      Delete
    3. By the way Colorado did a heroic thing today and started the ball rolling in the right direction in the US for us gun owners. Way to go Colorado. I would break into my John Denver song right now cause I love those people. Who ever thought that the state bozo's think they have the right to start monkeying and keeping us legal gun holders from enjoying our second amendment rights. Thank you Colorado, now get em erased and lead the way!!!

      Delete
  3. Dan, as far as I can tell, we are all fundamentally tapped out on arguments bearish or bullish regarding pm's. I for one can recite chapter and verse the perma bulls' claims. What I am trying to get ahead of is what are we all missing or ignoring? German election surprise? Japan-China heating up of hostilities? Debt ceiling impasse? Yellen-Summers? I do not know; steve in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  4. Did Syria really have effect on the movement of POG? Often we give credit to one thing or another for a move up or down but often times it appears technical and due to change in mood regarding investments, POG in this instance.

    On daily charts an up channel can be seen with bottom lines sitting around 1355 area and rising which coincides with the present POG. So unless the support gives way, we can still move higher with a possible 1480-1500 projections in the near future.

    That said, up channel on the weekly rise is rather steep with low volume which is reminiscent of 2012 peak plus the downward resistance from last year appears around 1490 area as well so time will tell how this plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  5. At some point, people will catch on the the fact that the USGovt's deficits and growing debt cannot be sustained. The dollar will come under severe pressure and the physical PM supply will tighten regardless of what the paper pushers are up to. The the fun will start.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Silver is King,
      The dollar is under pressure and gold is flat and listless the last few days. I fear a trap is being set or has been set for bulls and I wonder will fundamentals ever take hold.

      Delete
    2. Steve B., You seem like you've been around markets for awhile. Wondering if you agree with some thoughts here. And btw, I believe that stock bugs, bond bugs, etc. are just as misguided as gold bugs, so no offense to my gold bug buddies.

      Anyways. If you can picture a chart with fundamentals and also technicals on it. The "fundamentals" line plods along extremely slowly, basically a straight line, while the
      "technicals" zig zag above and below the fundamentals line. Basically overbought and oversold relative to the "unknowable" fundamentals line. At the 9/6/2011 $1922 high on gold, the market got dangerously overbought relative to the fundamentals, but more importantly, extremely overbought technically. In other words, it got way ahead of the "fundamentals".
      Gold now just needs time, as the price will get oversold (underbought) relative to the fundamentals down the road and we will have a monster rally.
      The gold bugs have, are, and will continue to underestimate how long that gold will take to hit all time new highs. I believe, from my work, that it will be 4 1/2 years from the peak of Sept. 2011.
      However, as a Wyckoff price/volume guy, I do believe that gold is under massive accumulation and is therefore extremely bullish long term.
      You have to know when a market is a trading market or an investing market. I believe gold will continue to be a great trading market, ie at times long, at times short, for a few more years. But keep your eye on slowly accumulating or adding on into extreme weakness/oversold/selling climax. Just like should be done always actually. And take profits at the "appropriate" time/price, (whatever that means hah).

      Delete
    3. Tom; It is way time to pay attention big time to the FED as far as the big picture; not to say that gold can bang $100 here and there and god knows what silver can do; I am afraid that our worst nightmare is unfolding and that is to say that we are now beginning the Baltimore chop, which is that both bulls and bears cut themselves up; Dan is a level-headed guy and worth paying attention to as is a very FEW others, and I stay very loose and willing to go both ways, 1550 gold monthly makes me bullish but until then, just trade it; steve in sparks

      Delete
  6. Not sure if it was mentioned Dan

    Pan American Silver Says Hedging Moves May Have "Sent Wrong Message"


    http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/09/10/pan-american-silver-says-hedging-moves-may-have-se.aspx

    ReplyDelete
  7. Concord; Hi and so forth; I once knew a guy who knew the price of everything and the value of nothing; the perma pm bulls remind me of him; they know everything wrong about the United States of America and the FED, and that is wonderful; But ask them the names of the Presidents or Prime Ministers of the BRICS, or better yet, how about the names of the central bankers of these countries, or better even yet, how about the backgrounds of the EM's? How many of your daughters and friends are moving to Brazil and China, and lol, Russia? steve in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  8. New closing highs in Europe's IEV.

    The market is not anticipating any "Endgames" or "Impending Chaos".

    Stay in the system. unless you are a fat cat with too much deposited in foreign banks.

    Common stock mutual funds are probably the safest place to be right now, as those vehicles are Fed-sponsored and supported by TPTB.

    GDX might have bottomed today, but so much technical damage may take months to repair.

    Look how much back and forth occurred before Europe finally broke out to new 5-year highs this week.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Dan, I'm surprised no one here has mentioned the Fed's meeting next week?! I would think that many are sitting on their hands waiting for famous magician/Fedhead to proclaim their decision to taper or not! I think the gold and silver markets are extra sensitive to this, but what would I know.....
    I think Ben needs to save some face before he leaves and will taper a tiny bit to say that he started it. Taper will be announced and Gold and Silver will get whacked again and the game goes on!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yeah i agree totally...he wants to take credit before he leaves, and gold and silver will take a little whacking - but to what level, since it should be priced in....orrr...will he just stall the taper cos the volatlity these days and then interest rates are getting scary for the Fed and the last thing he would want is to leave on the start of a major collapse..but its a massive meeting!

      Delete
    2. Lately if I remember correctly it was the general market getting spooked every time taper was being mentioned while PMs actually rose. Again I think charts play greater role than anything else in the marketplace. JMO

      Delete
  10. if the Fed doesnt start to taper as scheduled/predicted by almost everyone, including me, wouldnt that be a catalyst to send gold up way ebyond 1400?...anyhow i see the levels lower as 1355 - 1320/1330 and then 1280 as a bottom..just my opinion...gold held alright today...on another note, can someone explain to me the difference between the HUI and the GDX, at one point one was in the red and the other in the green today...happy trading. x

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.marketgrader.com/MGMainWeb/etfgrader/components.jsp?id=GDX
      GDX stands out for having a mix of large, medium, and small-cap miners, as well as companies from a host of countries. As it is the only ETF to use the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, its weightings will be unique, though many of the prime holdings like Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG) and Newmont (NEM) appear in other precious metal and mining funds [try our Free ETF Stock Exposure Tool].

      GDX is far and away the largest and most liquid mining-oriented ETF on the market. In fact, GDX is one of the relatively few funds that can challenge the well-known SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF in terms of liquidity. With this popularity, GDX is also unique amongst ETFs in having an active and liquid options market, allowing investors to implement more sophisticated


      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EHUI+Components
      An acronym for "basket of un-hedged gold stocks". The BUGS index is the AMEX's index measuring gold companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond a year and a half.

      Delete
    2. thanks man...makes sense! ill look up the HUI myself...interesting that Dan analyses the HUI over the GDX...

      Delete
  11. Tom Haan; Old buildings and whores if they stick around long enough somehow gain respectability and that is the truth; Granville, Russell, Farrell, Prechter and the list goes on and on and on; if they could trade they would not write letters; $ management is what it is all about and follow your own thoughts and listen to very, very few of the blowhards out there; steve in sparks, nv

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Steve B, So true, Those who can - do, those who can't teach, or re: markets, those who can't then "advise" others for money.

      I know that you know this already ,Steve, but for anyone who listens to and more importantly lays down their market bets based on what someone else says to do - YOU ARE TOAST. You have to spend the years and years learning and losing money before being able to consistently profit in markets. There are no shortcuts. If you're not willing to do that, then please avoid the stress and heartache and focus on something else.
      Excuse my rant. I've been thru it personally and it's brutal.

      Delete
    2. Tom Haan;

      WEll said Tom... you are exactly CORRECT... there is nothing the least bit glamorous about trading commodities. It used to be at one time, but since the advent of hedge funds and particularly, hedge fund computers and algorithms, it is indeed a brutal and very difficult profession.

      I personally believe that the hedge fund proliferation would be stopped dead in its tracks if the interest rates in this nation were back at 5-6% annually. NO one would need those bastards to earn a decent return on their savings/investments.

      Delete
    3. Dan, Agreed. The vast majority of hedgies at this point are clowns who couldn't trade their way out of a paper bag. As a personal story. I was an independent floor trader in Spuz pit for 10 years until 2002. I had a buddy down their who was a good guy, but a horrible trader. (I was a horrible trader also for my first 3 years down there.) Anyways, his Dad, I won't mention his name, but he was a well known money manager.
      My buddy kept running down his account, but his Dad kept sending him more funds, until finally,thankfully he left the floor. I figured I'd never hear from him again. But several months later, I ran in to him. Guess what his new "job" was? He somehow got some rich morons together and he started a hedge fund. I laughed at him, I thought he was joking. He wasn't. This is the kind of quality that we have running money nowadays.

      Delete
  12. It seems to be the consensus here by those that know more than I that gold is going a good deal lower in the near future.

    I find it interesting because it makes very little sense. The market keeps flying with poor employment numbers, unimpressive growth across the board in most businesses and declining appetite for US treasuries. We know the game is rigged but the game is so rigged it won't collapse until it collapses again. Picking up the pieces won't be as easy the next time. But what I have learned here, day to day insights and short term thinking is the wisest way to invest today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. concord; ;istentng to white wolfe is hazaradous to your health; just sell Yen rallies and beans also; steve insparks

      Delete
    2. You know how to trade and it is not as easy as it looks. If I just traded and stopped investing I would be a lot better off in this market.

      Delete
  13. Concord I do not know what gold is going to do. I just think that Wall Street used the Syria Gig, and this is killing me. I want some sort of direction, the US has been wandering a desert, letting Wall Street blow up stocks, with P/E's that are ridiculous. I am just tapped out of nerves, and need a break. I do believe that soon..gold and the gold stocks will start a rocket and the Wall of Sand built in the stock market will dissipate like an ocean hitting a sand castle. So I am awaiting the beginning of the next manipulation story..Debt.. debt and more debt arguing in Washington. If gold can get over 1400 and stay more than a day, I will go all in on some of the miners. Until then a break is in order, had enough lies fed through the media. Just too much.

    ReplyDelete
  14. White wolf the non-sensical is holding us hostage until the end game. When the end game begins is undetermined but inevitable. I feel your pain and kick myself every day. The debt ceiling as you say looks like the next big thing for gold. The tapering seems to be a headwind according to most here.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I just think that Wall Street used the Syria Gig, and this is killing me. I want some sort of direction, the US has been wandering a desert, letting Wall Street blow up stocks, with P/E's that are ridiculous.Invest in gold market is very well.

    investing in farmland

    ReplyDelete
  16. White Wolf and Hasan and Concord; Do you want me to handle your action on these mkts? steve in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  17. @concord, we must remember, no one knows for sure where the market will go from here. The concensus may be down but remember, just because the middle east is on the back burner doesn't garantee anything.
    Anyone over there could pull a trigger that could set things off and then you have the fog of war!
    I've heard it said "it will be a limited strike"......once in the fog of war, who knows?
    if there is a strike, I imagine a big gap up in gold and silver.

    @ Mr. Norcini, -re; gold and silver- would it be safe to say that more and more traders get out onto the sidlines as the fed meeting gets closer which pushes the price lower making it even more vulnerable to the downside? As I've watched over the last couple of years or so this seems to be the trend.

    thanks again Dan for your generous writing on the markets for us!

    derry

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. derry o:

      You're welcome....

      Yes, when markets do not have any clear sense of direction many traders do tend to draw down their trading size or move to the sidelines altogether until they get a better sense of where the next move is going to occur. That tends to leave "air pockets" both over and under the markets meaning that it does not take the same size of large orders to move the market sharply in one direction or the other.

      Any market that experiences this sort of thing is vulnerable to exaggerated moves as a result of the lower liquidity.

      Dan

      Delete
  18. Trader Dan, Steve,or Hubert
    I am not a trader as is obvious by my comments. What has occurred to me watching gold the last few days is that it is clearly being capped at all hours at 1365. The dollar has dropped for three days but gold is flat to down. What I wondered is could the shorts in gold namely some of the bigger players be holding gold down in expectation of the taper announcement next week. Dropping it from the 1350 to 1365 areas leaves a lot more downside. What is troubling is it almost seems that gold has buyers even with the dollar dropping as it does the last few days.

    Before the big drop in April gold had some the same unsettling lack of upward momentum, grinding but never really moving up.

    ReplyDelete
  19. The gold market has already priced in any kind of taper.
    Because the Fed is boxed in a corner, it cannot let it be known it's always had its back to the gold wall, looming in the background.
    But after 100 years of priviliges without consequences, it cannot take liberties as before. Its options exhausted, between a 24KT rock and a cold, hard world that isn't fooled by the threat, or reality of more Israeli or US airstrikes, to pile into US treasuries or dollars for safety.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The heavy GDX dumping from 31 down to 29 tells me big boys expect a serious correction coming in the gold market, say, to 1315 in October. In the minimum they do not expect another quick push upward.

    ReplyDelete
  21. I'm out from my 1360 long gold at 1349 and more. Support broken, bad. Expect pullback and maybe then new lows to 1280. Good i sold some gold up there above 1400 $. Careful. The downtrend is still here. 1200 is still a possibility. I manage my account as if 1000 is a possibility.

    ReplyDelete
  22. As mentioned last week same FED backed BBs using thin early morning market to push down Gold n Silver as expected ahead of FOMC looks like taper will crash and burn, should set up a buying opportunity after this dip. Oil and stocks, Government bean counters not expecting taper.

    ReplyDelete
  23. http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/JessesCafeAmericain/~3/Zl4PPWqLC6s/claims-per-ounce-of-deliverable-gold-at.html
    11 September 2013
    Claims Per Ounce of Deliverable Gold at the COMEX Rise to New High of 57.6
    Contracts per Ounce overextended

    ReplyDelete
  24. Yet another horrific breakaway gap down for GLD and GDX, could see some real selling acceleration.

    Probably about time to flush out all the late hangers on still glued to the fantastic price predictions posted regularly on other websites.

    Once we finally push those clowns over a cliff in a huge panic wave of selling, it will probably mark a bottom.

    I have no idea how low it goes, though..

    ReplyDelete
  25. Once again Dan, I thank you for your valuable accurate insight, , I went to the sidelines after reading your last post, great call. your friend, Steveo

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi guy...


    Like the wise said.... Sell when market is bullish and buy when market bearish ....

    It being interesting.... Cycle trading... Actually it hit bull eye both my price and time fame... My actually target is 26.00 and gold 1450. But I close my position at 25 onward and gold 1400 upward....


    Gold contract = 30
    Silver contract = 45

    Purchase gold average price = 1275
    Purchase Silver average price = 19.90

    Selling gold average price = 1410
    Selling silver average price = 25.30

    .. Cheer guy...

    Not trying to show off.. But just want you guy to understand cycle trading is very profitable if you understand it .

    Cheer guy...




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. good work, preditor1976!

      when price levels you eyeing next for both gold and silver as far as re-entry points go?

      Delete
    2. Hi jim,

      As you can see, the market start break down so it will take a while before support is found and the trade will be extreme whipsaw... So I am now on the sideline..

      For short term 21.50 - 22 look interesting and gold 1300 - 1310 look interesting buying point.

      I am not making any call here just opinion ...

      Cheer guy

      Delete
  27. GDX/GLD ratio now back under .20

    Only a stone's throw away from matching the world record low of .19

    Now its time for a multiple choice question for the group here:

    Which most accurately describes the gold market today?

    - Panic Selling

    - Frightening Collapse

    - Utter Chaos

    - Ensuing Panic

    - Stunning Meltdown

    - All of the Above

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK, I'll bite and answer with G. None of the above?

      I would guess that we wouldn't see panic selling again until Gold tests its lows. A number of the big players have already left the arena, e.g. Paulson. If it were panic selling/chaos/meltdown wouldn't we see higher volume on some of the shares? Just glancing at admittedly selective tickers, relative volume for the following shares is: RGLD .64, KGC .8, NEM .9, ABX 1, GDX 1.1... So not exactly a washout.

      Interesting that FCX is positive today! What do you make of that?

      Delete
    2. When I read about Soros loading up on gold miners and calls, I knew we were in trouble. When I read Paulson was selling his holdings I figured the bottom must be close. Few more weeks.

      Delete
  28. The shortages at the comex seem to matter little. The paper price is the price of gold. They can move it with impunity. Corrupt yes but a sad fact. Gold promoters are the ones that need to stand and deliver an explanation for being wrong time after time this last year. I am not a trader but should have be. These markets are going to be this way until it all blows up and who knows when that is.

    Mark you gloat and that is your thing, but right now you are right. So for me at least your point has been made.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Concord, as you mention stand & deliver, Jesse of the eponymous cafe has said that he doesn't think the failure will occur in Comex (as most of the physical runs through the LBMA). My take on the declining Comex warehouse inventories is that the physical gold as insurance policy argument has more relevance than ever.

      That said, I share the POV of the FOFOA blog that if there is a great reset in gold, not only will you need to have physical as paper gold will be settled in cash at a pre-reset value, and that miners will very likely suffer through govt. seizures of various stripes (massive levies rather than outright takeovers) .

      Until then, great call Dan! I find reading your blog and Jesse's the most insightful and full of integrity. Where but on Jesse's blog do you get allusions to Philip K., Tennyson, Shakespeare, and clips of Chris Hedges, no less on a link from Trader Dan's blog.

      Delete
  29. Exactly right Concord.

    I've repeated it many times.

    The annual mine production is FINITE.

    The amount of "Short Gold At Market" order tickets that can be printed is INFINITE.

    So far, throughout the last 10 years, GLD and physical gold prices have traded tick for tick, with only a slight variance in premiums from month to month.

    That means paper trumps physical, probably because the amount of paper shuffling on the options exchange vastly exceeds the paltry sums of actual physical gold traded, because nobody wants to take delivery of the real stuff, and options and futures players are perfectly happy with cash settlement.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark we can agree. The thing is a lot of people believe in gold from such a fundamental basis we have had the fear of God put in us these last four months. Spoiled and bailed out of every correction over the last ten years the market stopped giving us an out of jail free card this April.

      My only problem with you is the the sarcasm which is rightly directed at Sinclair and others who have not even addressed the mistakes made should be your targets. And I know they are but some of us who are not traders have been in a small motion car crash for four months. I still look a the big picture and as Armstrong says know gold will be the investment in the months ahead. I see you really don't make this personal now and back up your stuff with real facts. The sarcasm or gloating is not necessary but what you say has merit.

      So thanks for responding so constructively. A lousy day for me but not one where I haven't learned something.

      Delete
    2. The fear of God should have been felt when gold got grotesquely overbought into the buying climax in Aug/Sep 6, 2011. That's the time to be scared. 90% of people have their emotions backwards. Gold now is in major accumulation, but this will take a long time before we see new all time highs. Just trade the market short and long for the next many months. Take control of your trading account/wealth. Don't let the "manipulators" control your account.

      Delete
  30. DUST up 35% in 12 trading days.

    Somebody is making a fortune on that thing.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Concord; I kinda like Mark's sarcasm; steve in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  32. Steve to each his own. You both have a lot of good advice to share.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hey Dan, forgot to mention your timely pm call yesterday; yep Concord, it is all quite interesting, is it not? swb in sparks

    ReplyDelete
  34. I remember seeing that classic "Arc of a Diver" pattern several days ago, which always warns us of a $100 flush coming up.

    Now we are getting it, and then some.....

    ReplyDelete
  35. So, I'm sure we'll hear the gold bug's annoying calls about manipulation once again.

    ReplyDelete
  36. 1250-1280 at the least imo. Well probably test that June bottom - why not? Hui 160 - why not?

    The whole 2008-2013 period one big pump and dump unrecognised by some gold promotors, others some usefull idiots, others using it to further their own agenda, be it share selling or newsletter selling or what not.

    ReplyDelete
  37. If you check a daily gold chart into may 2006 and compare it with the daily gold chart into may 2011, they seem twin brothers. Hard to believe that someone like Sinclair didnt know what was going on.

    ReplyDelete
  38. It's always blamed on "Central Planners" which really do not exist, except in someone's imagination.

    It's pretty much institutional buying and selling that moves price, and right now the big money is dumping to buy something else that is in a bull market trend.

    Like financial stocks.

    Why chase something in a bear market when 90% of all common stock sectors are in the greatest bull market ever recorded?

    ReplyDelete
  39. "It's always blamed on "Central Planners" which really do not exist, except in someone's imagination."

    Thats just funny Mark.

    ReplyDelete
  40. jsmineset's fax machine has gone ablaze with fire due to the amount of incoming inquiries.

    Poor Dan Duvall has had to replace at least 5 fax machines already this year, and probably has a bunch of fire extinguishers under his desk for days like today.

    ReplyDelete
  41. So we are closing in on the April preliminary support zone of $1321. We should begin to see quality demand start showing up there. I'm going to be watching and considering to start covering my GDX and ABX short hedges at that point as the market could begin "speaking" to me soon. I'll let the price/volume action take me out.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Nah, he just turned that faxmachine off. If something is too stupid to be true it probably isnt. And Jim is a very smart man.

    For some reason he pumps tops. Did it all his life, from the 1970's wall street advetisement that gold is going to 900 before it halved till now - its in his genes.

    Notice the gold 10.000 dollar on his site today. It will probably go there but not before anyone who listens to Jim is bankrupted. Hes an interesting character. Sorry Dan - truth be told.

    ReplyDelete
  43. I received an e-mail blast two days ago from an un-named fund manager who also sells physical product, claiming that the "bottom is in" and its "time to load up".

    Needless to say I was patient and didn't buy anything.

    I kind of new this was coming, so I decided to wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did to. Gary Savage predicted it to the day. The difference for me is I still hold the stuff. I hope Dan and others try to explain the fallacy of physical and paper gold in this time frame. I just saw on KWN in a written interview Sprott talking that this a desperate attempt of some to get their hands on the physical. Sorry Eric I am not sure I think what you are saying is relevant in this moment in time!

      Delete
  44. this could all be in preperation of a suprise announcement from the Fed next week...obviously its all technical trading, but the smash in low volume trading hours and all that could be for damage limitation come next week if they delay/halt taper plans..but i still reckon theyll do some minimal 70 billion instead of 85 billion printing (still expanding money supply and thus inflation according to monetary theory)...but the fact that putin calmed the syria and people expect the taper i think is the reason for thi smash...i hope 1280 doesnt get breached...i still think the we've seen the lows in gold...i have to admit, gold went up too quick..when it was at 1430 i remember thinking gee, we are almost back at 1500 which is the level before the mass smash, so it was too fast...gold's bounce back up really can be as violent as its drop....looking forward to Dans next post, and the 70 or so comments that accompany it haha

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.