The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the cost of an annual Thanksgiving turkey dinner for 10 has risen this year to $49.20; a $5.73 increase over the cost of the same dinner last year ($43.47). That is an increase of a bit over 13%.
No worries however - keep moving; nothing to see here. Our illustrious lords that "cook" the official inflation numbers will no doubt be able to deal with this by substituting quail or cornish hens for Tommy and Timmy turkey.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
12 Hour Gold Chart
Gold ran into selling pressure today as both safe havens, the bond market and the gold market, were taken lower after the equity markets reacted to a supposed improvement in the US unemployment claims. Personally this number is a very poor indicator to base trading decisions upon but the equity markets are almost desperate to find some good news somewhere.
They even seized on Berlusconi appointing an interim government rather than holding elections further down the road. That was viewed to be friendly for stocks. Heck, it had people buying the Euro today?! Go figure.
Strangely enough, the hedgies were selling the commodity markets in general today with the energy sector seemingly bucking that trend but the metals and grains did not. The result was that the CCI moved lower with the CRB slightly higher, as it is more heavily weighted in energies and skewed in that direction.
Gold did find good buying below the $1750 level and is currently trading near $1760 as I write this. We'll have to see how Asia responds overnight but we certainly have some solid support and resistance levels to work off of thus far. If we stay above $1725- $1720 we should range trade with some chart resistance initially seen just shy of $1780.
The HUI was lower today but it recovered a rather goodly portion of its losses heading into the closing bell. There is chart support near 570 initially with another round of potential buying emerging closer to 565. Keep in mind that this is an index comprised of various mining companies so when I mention support and resistance levels, this is simply picking up on what is occuring in the shares of those companies which comprise this particular index.
The HUI will now have to convincingly CLOSE above 610 to see a solid trending move higher in the mining sector commence. A closing downside push through 540 would signal some additional weakness otherwise the shares look to be forging out another consolidation pattern.
They even seized on Berlusconi appointing an interim government rather than holding elections further down the road. That was viewed to be friendly for stocks. Heck, it had people buying the Euro today?! Go figure.
Strangely enough, the hedgies were selling the commodity markets in general today with the energy sector seemingly bucking that trend but the metals and grains did not. The result was that the CCI moved lower with the CRB slightly higher, as it is more heavily weighted in energies and skewed in that direction.
Gold did find good buying below the $1750 level and is currently trading near $1760 as I write this. We'll have to see how Asia responds overnight but we certainly have some solid support and resistance levels to work off of thus far. If we stay above $1725- $1720 we should range trade with some chart resistance initially seen just shy of $1780.
The HUI was lower today but it recovered a rather goodly portion of its losses heading into the closing bell. There is chart support near 570 initially with another round of potential buying emerging closer to 565. Keep in mind that this is an index comprised of various mining companies so when I mention support and resistance levels, this is simply picking up on what is occuring in the shares of those companies which comprise this particular index.
The HUI will now have to convincingly CLOSE above 610 to see a solid trending move higher in the mining sector commence. A closing downside push through 540 would signal some additional weakness otherwise the shares look to be forging out another consolidation pattern.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
12 Hour Gold Chart
Gold failed to extend past the psychological level of $1,800 and is now moving lower towards the first level of chart support just above $1750 and extending down towards $1725 - $1720.
It was to be expected such a large rally in the US Dollar during today's session (Wednesday) would provide some strong headwinds to any move higher in gold. That and the fact that the CCI was hammered lower today as anything remotely resembling a risk trade was yanked off.
This evening, gold is moving lower as there is follow through selling across both the base metals and the precious metals with only slight weakness being seen in the Dollar. Clearly traders are concerned about the woes in Europe.
As long as any setback in gold holds ABOVE $1680, the pattern that will develop is more consistent with a market taking a breather. A drop below this level, that cannot recover it within the same session, will forebode a drop back towards $1640 - $1625.
It was to be expected such a large rally in the US Dollar during today's session (Wednesday) would provide some strong headwinds to any move higher in gold. That and the fact that the CCI was hammered lower today as anything remotely resembling a risk trade was yanked off.
This evening, gold is moving lower as there is follow through selling across both the base metals and the precious metals with only slight weakness being seen in the Dollar. Clearly traders are concerned about the woes in Europe.
As long as any setback in gold holds ABOVE $1680, the pattern that will develop is more consistent with a market taking a breather. A drop below this level, that cannot recover it within the same session, will forebode a drop back towards $1640 - $1625.
HUI holding in relation to the S&P 500
Traders/investors looking to take a defensive posture in the equity markets continue to see the mining sector as a place in which to find some temporary shelter. While the HUI is getting pulled lower today alongside the entirety of the US equity markets, the sector is holding in relation to the broader market.
A good trade has been to spread the miners against the S&P, a trade which I mentioned here some time ago would be a winner for the hedge funds instead of the shortsighted spread trade involving the bullion markets and the mining shares. The hedgies were able to play that trade and profit from it for a while but they overstayed their time with it as investors began warming to the solid profits being generated by many of the mining companies. It also did not hurt the bullish cause to see some of the gold miners increasing their dividend payout.
For a look at the HUI in isolation, you can see that the index has filled the former gap region but failed to rally through the top of that gap and hold above that level. It should find some additional buying support back down at the bottom of this same gap near the 570 level if the dip buyers are going to still feel comfortable committing capital to the sector in the midst of this instability in Europe.
A good trade has been to spread the miners against the S&P, a trade which I mentioned here some time ago would be a winner for the hedge funds instead of the shortsighted spread trade involving the bullion markets and the mining shares. The hedgies were able to play that trade and profit from it for a while but they overstayed their time with it as investors began warming to the solid profits being generated by many of the mining companies. It also did not hurt the bullish cause to see some of the gold miners increasing their dividend payout.
For a look at the HUI in isolation, you can see that the index has filled the former gap region but failed to rally through the top of that gap and hold above that level. It should find some additional buying support back down at the bottom of this same gap near the 570 level if the dip buyers are going to still feel comfortable committing capital to the sector in the midst of this instability in Europe.
Silver whacked along with Copper as Risk trades are taken back off (AGAIN)
Rollercoaster is too tame of a word to describe the kind of insanity being created in our financial markets by the computer algorithms. Yesterday it was "everyone in; the water's fine". Today is, "Get the hell out; a great white is coming at you".
Tomorrow, it will probably be time for a nice yacht cruise again. Who knows and at this point, why even bother attempting to figure it out.
First the focus was all on Greece. Now it has shifted to Italy. Next it will probably be Spain and if we get to that, it will be the survival of the entire European Monetary Union that will be called into doubt. At some point, if things keep heading in the same direction, with one fire after another popping up, nationalistic tendencies will doom the Euro as nations begin opting out. Either way, history is being made.
The impact of this mess (at least for today) is that Copper and Silver were both spanked as traders are looking for a contagion effect that would slow overall global economic growth. Copper is currently down 3.5% with silver being 2.9% lower.
Gold is getting caught in a tug of war between the commodity index related selling due to risk trade reversals and its role as a safe haven. It is currently trading down but not by all that much considering the carnage occuring in the US equity markets. It is hovering between $1780 and $1790 as I write this.
Interestingly enough, gold IN EURO TERMS, is actually higher today which underscores the fact that the yellow metal is indeed serving as a safe haven. It is currently trading near 1320, a mere 50 euros or so off of its recent all time high.
Tomorrow, it will probably be time for a nice yacht cruise again. Who knows and at this point, why even bother attempting to figure it out.
First the focus was all on Greece. Now it has shifted to Italy. Next it will probably be Spain and if we get to that, it will be the survival of the entire European Monetary Union that will be called into doubt. At some point, if things keep heading in the same direction, with one fire after another popping up, nationalistic tendencies will doom the Euro as nations begin opting out. Either way, history is being made.
The impact of this mess (at least for today) is that Copper and Silver were both spanked as traders are looking for a contagion effect that would slow overall global economic growth. Copper is currently down 3.5% with silver being 2.9% lower.
Gold is getting caught in a tug of war between the commodity index related selling due to risk trade reversals and its role as a safe haven. It is currently trading down but not by all that much considering the carnage occuring in the US equity markets. It is hovering between $1780 and $1790 as I write this.
Interestingly enough, gold IN EURO TERMS, is actually higher today which underscores the fact that the yellow metal is indeed serving as a safe haven. It is currently trading near 1320, a mere 50 euros or so off of its recent all time high.
CME working to release transferred MF Global accounts for trading
For the sake of those who read this site and whose accounts were impacted by the mess at MF Global, here is the latest news from the CME Group. The advisory was issued this morning.
CME Group is committed to ensuring that all customers are treated fairly as CME Clearing works with the Trustee, is making substantial progress on verifications and continues to receive information from the 12 receiving clearing firms and other Derivatives Clearing Organizations (DCOs) to facilitate this process. However, due to the massive undertaking of processing data to verify 15,000 accounts for CME Clearing, ICE Clear US, The Clearing Corporation, KCBOT Clearing Corp., MGEX, NYSE Liffe US and The Options Clearing Corporation, as well as the unique circumstances of the MF Global bulk transfer process, the validation of each account's collateral balance is taking longer than originally anticipated.
CME Group recognizes the urgency of the situation and is working to complete this process as soon as possible. The company expects that those customer accounts including only futures positions will be verified, and holds will be removed on a rolling basis beginning this morning, November 9. Following the completion of futures-only account verifications, the company will work to complete the process and remove any remaining holds on accounts involving options positions throughout the remainder of this week.
CME Group is using a number of channels to communicate with customers as soon as information is available and will continue to provide updates throughout the process through its clearing members and on its website for this matter, www.cmegroup.com/mfglobal.
Further information about CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and its products can be found at http://www.cmegroup.com/.
11-196
CME-G
News Release Issued: November 9, 2011 12:50 PM EST
CME Group Provides Update on Customer Account Verification Process in Conjunction With Bulk Transfers of MF Global Accounts
CHICAGO, Nov. 9, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group today provided an update regarding the process it announced November 4, 2011 to verify customer collateral transferred to receiving firms through the MF Global bulk transfer process, as authorized by the Trustee.CME Group is committed to ensuring that all customers are treated fairly as CME Clearing works with the Trustee, is making substantial progress on verifications and continues to receive information from the 12 receiving clearing firms and other Derivatives Clearing Organizations (DCOs) to facilitate this process. However, due to the massive undertaking of processing data to verify 15,000 accounts for CME Clearing, ICE Clear US, The Clearing Corporation, KCBOT Clearing Corp., MGEX, NYSE Liffe US and The Options Clearing Corporation, as well as the unique circumstances of the MF Global bulk transfer process, the validation of each account's collateral balance is taking longer than originally anticipated.
CME Group recognizes the urgency of the situation and is working to complete this process as soon as possible. The company expects that those customer accounts including only futures positions will be verified, and holds will be removed on a rolling basis beginning this morning, November 9. Following the completion of futures-only account verifications, the company will work to complete the process and remove any remaining holds on accounts involving options positions throughout the remainder of this week.
CME Group is using a number of channels to communicate with customers as soon as information is available and will continue to provide updates throughout the process through its clearing members and on its website for this matter, www.cmegroup.com/mfglobal.
Further information about CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and its products can be found at http://www.cmegroup.com/.
11-196
CME-G
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
The Berlusconi Bash
Maybe that is a bit of an overexaggeration but it was the news that Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi was stepping down, resigning his position leading up the government, that sent the equity markets into an upside tizzy as giddy bulls threw caution to the wind and jumped out of anything resembling a safe haven and back into stocks.
Down went the US long bond, a full point and a half, and down went gold after it had pushed solidly above the psychological resistance level of $1800. Even the mining shares had been moving higher adding onto yesterday's gains before they too gave way under the selling pressure unleashed into gold.
Silver actually was functioning a bit more like a safe haven earlier in the session, drawing buying on off the stronger gold price before it moved lower when gold broke down and could not hold onto its gains. However, the return of speculative inflows (RISK ON) into copper and many other commodity markets underpinned silver and it clawed its way higher pushing back towards the $35 level.
The Dollar also moved lower as traders jettisoned the greenback for the "undervalued" Euro.
We could just as easily see every bit of this completely reverse before the week ends if these same traders start thinking about the structural difficulties standing in the path of dealing with the Eurozones financial problems. For today, they seemed to think that with Berlusconi out of the picture, a new government would perhaps be more receptive to implementing the "austerity" measures required under the plans by those who hobbled this European care package together. That was interpretted (Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder) as meaning the party is going to get going once again as the liquidity spighot opens up.
We'll see how long this sentiment indeed lasts. Suffice it for now, the gold bulls were clawed and bitten some by the bears as a result of this news. The shorter-term oriented bulls quickly sold out and cashed in some of their winnings with a fairly good amount of volume being down up near and just above the $1800 level. Clearly some fresh shorts were put in place today with some attempting to pick a top hoping that the fresh news will provide them with some downside momentum.
Down went the US long bond, a full point and a half, and down went gold after it had pushed solidly above the psychological resistance level of $1800. Even the mining shares had been moving higher adding onto yesterday's gains before they too gave way under the selling pressure unleashed into gold.
Silver actually was functioning a bit more like a safe haven earlier in the session, drawing buying on off the stronger gold price before it moved lower when gold broke down and could not hold onto its gains. However, the return of speculative inflows (RISK ON) into copper and many other commodity markets underpinned silver and it clawed its way higher pushing back towards the $35 level.
The Dollar also moved lower as traders jettisoned the greenback for the "undervalued" Euro.
We could just as easily see every bit of this completely reverse before the week ends if these same traders start thinking about the structural difficulties standing in the path of dealing with the Eurozones financial problems. For today, they seemed to think that with Berlusconi out of the picture, a new government would perhaps be more receptive to implementing the "austerity" measures required under the plans by those who hobbled this European care package together. That was interpretted (Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder) as meaning the party is going to get going once again as the liquidity spighot opens up.
We'll see how long this sentiment indeed lasts. Suffice it for now, the gold bulls were clawed and bitten some by the bears as a result of this news. The shorter-term oriented bulls quickly sold out and cashed in some of their winnings with a fairly good amount of volume being down up near and just above the $1800 level. Clearly some fresh shorts were put in place today with some attempting to pick a top hoping that the fresh news will provide them with some downside momentum.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Euro Gold within 70 euros of its all time high
Gold when priced in terms of the Euro is showing great strength continuing to track higher ever since it found buying support at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level shown on the chart.
It has now managed to push through the last Fibonacci level of note and based on the norm for most TA, it should now make a push back to retest the recent all time high, which is a mere 70 Euros above its current levels.
It is very evident, that many European investors and average citizens are very far from being comfortable with the so-called "solution" that has been hobbled together by the European monetary and political leaders to handle the fallout from the sovereign debt woes currently besetting the EU.
It has now managed to push through the last Fibonacci level of note and based on the norm for most TA, it should now make a push back to retest the recent all time high, which is a mere 70 Euros above its current levels.
It is very evident, that many European investors and average citizens are very far from being comfortable with the so-called "solution" that has been hobbled together by the European monetary and political leaders to handle the fallout from the sovereign debt woes currently besetting the EU.
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