“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, December 10, 2014

USDA Reports - Focus shifts to Global Supply Numbers

USDA issued its December Supply and Demand report today and as usual, it set off some expected reactions across the grain floor.

About the only surprise in the report that I can see at this time came in the corn numbers. The trade was looking for a corn carryover near last month's numbers of 2.008 billion bushels. Instead USDA upped usage reducing the amount of corn leftover to 1.998 billion bushels. However, they also raised the expected GLOBAL stockpiles to 192.2 million metric tons from last month's 191.5 million.
Apparently, corn sweeteners will find the cheap corn prices attractive and as a result use more of the stuff in making HFCS. They came up with an additional 10 million bushels worth of demand from that sector ( note that it includes the feed sector but based on what I can see, USDA had already factored in the livestock and poultry industry numbers last month.

Strangely enough, they also RAISED the US export numbers by 10 million bushels. That makes ZERO sense to me since corn exports thus far this year have been lagging behind expectations in the trade. With the projected increase in global supplies increasing combined with the US Dollar as strong as it has been, (and with the greenback expected to resume its uptrend next year,) I have no idea why USDA would expect US exports to increase given the fact that corn is plentiful and cheap globally. The US is not the only game in town anymore when it comes to corn and currency differentials make a big deal when it comes to sourcing grain by foreign buyers.
 
On the bean front, everyone and their dog was expecting USDA to lower the projected marketing-year end supplies. They got that. The trade has been looking at the recent spate of huge bean inspections and export numbers ( CHINA, CHINA, and more CHINA) and had guessed that the initial export number estimates from USDA were too low.
 
I guess USDA did as well since they raised the export numbers by 40 million bushels. That is where the drop in the carryout came from as it was reduced from 450 million bushels to 410 million bushels.
 
Beans did sell off on the data however as the market has already priced this in due to the huge rally off the lows that we have been seeing which began back in October. However, what USDA did do was to lower the total global carryover from 90.28 million metric tons to 89.9 million. That would be friendly as well on the surface but the trade was expecting a smaller S. American crop as thus a smaller number on that global carryover than USDA gave it.

Also today, and I think it is significant, the Brazilian equivalent of our USDA released some data which has somehow managed to get completely lost in all the hoopla surrounding the USDA numbers. They raised the current year crop in Brazil to an expected 95.8 million metric tons. That is a WHOPPER. The agency cited improved weather conditions and a larger acreage number. Last month, that same agency, had expected a crop in the range between 89.3 - 91.7 million metric tons. Depending on which end of that range one wants to start from, that is an increase of either 6.5 million metric tons - 4.1 million metric tons! WOW!
Here is the thing - USDA also plugged some numbers into today's global supply report for Brazil but they used a 94 million metric ton number. CONAB came in nearly 2 million metric tons higher.
 
If the trade really comes to grips with this ( and it needs to be kept in mind that it is still very early in the growing season down there and we have to deal with weather for a while longer ), this CONAB number implies a greater global carryover than today's USDA report suggests.

Also, the soybean/corn ratio remains too high in my view and that is going to encourage more US farmers making the move to beans next year for their planting intentions unless the ratio corrects significantly from current levels. Translation - bean prices are too high in relation to corn and the market needs to do something to either lower the price of beans or raise the price of corn for next year to encourage more acreage going to corn. If not, we will be awash in beans at the expense of corn.
 
More on this later... I have to get back to some other markets... The Yen carry trade unwind is on full display today with the Forex markets now being thrown into convulsions as the price of crude oil falls, alongside of equities.

it never ends....

136 comments:

  1. Thanks Dan, that's a whole lot of corn and beans!

    We're so fortunate to live in a fertile land of plenty.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Why currency volatility has staged a remarkable comeback"

    By Joseph Adinolfi
    Published: Dec 10, 2014 3:42 p.m. ET

    ~Real volatility in the euro-dollar and dollar-yen pairs has been rising since the summer after a year of relatively quiet trading.~

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Foreign-exchange volatility has returned, and several analysts said it’s here to stay, as the monetary policy of the world’s central banks begins to diverge after years of near-universal dovishness.

    Volatility in the foreign exchange market—best-characterized by the movement of the dollar-euro and dollar-yen currency pairs — dropped sharply between the summer of 2013 and the summer of 2014. But midway through this year, it began a sudden leap higher, as depicted in the chart...(cont.)

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-currency-volatility-has-staged-a-remarkable-comeback-2014-12-10

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stocks bounce back, and ZH overflows with snarky anger. Same old, same old.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I guess we saw the 59 handle on crude today. I'm not even really watching very close until I see 49. Then I'll start studying charts and picking which vehicles I might want to use for a rebound.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty startling to watch the plunge in crude continue today. :-o

      The effect on countries that rely on oil revenue has got to be a nauseating feeling for them lately.

      The markets and currencies are all over the place the last couple days with the only noticeable constant being oil dropping lower.

      How low will it go? I'd be shocked if it runs below $50 for any length of time but wtfdik?
      We're in somewhat uncharted territory here as far as the Saudi's going out of their way talking oil down whenever they get the chance.




      Delete
  5. Replies
    1. I'm relying on a bit of an overshoot, of course.

      Delete
  6. ~Yuan Has Real Shot at IMF Blessing on Reserve Status~

    By Andrew Mayeda and Fion Li
    December 11, 2014 11:08 AM EST

    For the first time, China has a real shot at getting the International Monetary Fund to endorse the yuan as a global reserve currency alongside the dollar and euro.

    In late 2015, the IMF will conduct its next twice-a-decade review of the basket of currencies its members can count toward their official reserves. Including the yuan in this so-called Special Drawing Rights system would allow the IMF to recognize the ascent of the world’s second-biggest economy while aiding China’s attempts to diminish the dollar’s dominance in global trade and finance...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-11/yuan-has-real-shot-at-imf-blessing-on-reserve-status.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'm not so sure about this new SDR thing. China might have something else in mind such as a RMB bloc. The Western system might have been humored all along with this talk of a suprasovereign SDR.

    Has anyone noticed how calm gold AND silver are with all this volatility in equities and currencies? And these new price fluctuation limits on the metals. 400 dollars for gold. 12 dollars for silver. 1.60 for copper. What the hell is coming down the pike?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Cullen Roche captures the essence of the Trader Dan mantra:

    "Of course, it doesn’t matter much what I think. It only matters what the market thinks. And if the market disagrees with my opinion then my opinion is meaningless as it pertains to gold’s actual value."

    http://pragcap.com/is-gold-the-oldest-bubble-in-human-history

    ReplyDelete
  9. Cullen should ask himself why do central banks hold gold? Why is gold at the bottom of the inverse liquidity pyramid?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Exter

    What gives gold its future valuation?......Debt.

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/05/26/the-mathematics-of-gold/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Grumps. The central banks have the same needs people do. A small portion of assets in physical commodity in the event of the worst of all collapses.
      It would not be prudent for them to have no gold.

      Delete
    2. Why anyone continues to pay attention to mineset is beyond me.

      Didnt Jim tell you Polny is the goto charlatan now?

      Delete
    3. Mike, where does credit go to die?

      From what is it reborn?

      Gold underpins the financial ether in which we play. While the sun is shining gold lays dormant acting like a commodity. It's not noticed until the financial galaxy is in collapse. That's when it becomes a deflationary supermassive black hole sucking up everything looking for a safe harbor.

      Delete
  10. They are talking about removing the words 'considerable time'. I think not, unless the Fed wants an avalanche in the stock market, and a sourpuss Santa decline. We have some serious headwinds dragging the market down as well, such as oil stocks collapsing; deflation syndrome (real or otherwise); and so-called Hindenberg Omen. If ol' Yeller adds in the threat of interest rate rises, there will be no Turkey for Christmas. With that out of the way, plus weak stock markets, plus weaker dollar, plus saber rattling in Ukraine; plus anxiety in the markets; plus Indian and Chinese seasonal demand, gold and especially gold shares, should continue to cruise into January next year.

    ReplyDelete
  11. IMF pushing for change...D.C. veto power at risk? Not yet.
    Yuan set to contribute to IMF? Probably so.

    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
    "IMF weighs reforms after U.S. Congress fails to ratify deal"

    By Greg Robb
    Published: Dec 12, 2014 10:16 a.m. ET

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The International Monetary Fund will discuss alternative reform options after the U.S. Congress has failed to ratify a four-year deal to restructure the emergency lender, said Christine Lagarde, the head of the international financial agency, on Friday.
    "As requested by our membership, we will now proceed to discuss alternative options for advancing quota and governance reforms and ensuring that the Fund has adequate resources, starting with an Executive Board meeting in January 2015," Lagarde said in a brief statement. The U.S. could lose its veto power on the IMF's executive board under one reform option being pushed by some emerging economies.

    marketwatch.com

    ReplyDelete
  12. I think I've said it almost everyday so why should today be any different?

    Holy smokes...how low will oil plunge?
    Whatever the heck is going on can't be a positive thing overall but does that mean it'll have a super negative impact at some point?

    We'll find out in due time what this time period meant as we watch it unfold.
    It seems a bit odd that the USD and gold haven't surged higher or lower while crude oil is plunging away.
    It seems likely the USD corrects upwards sharply at some point if oil continues on this path. That's been the historical correlation.

    I can't speak of the gold/oil relationship but I would have to think it's out of kilter right now fwiw. Not sure I put that much stock in that correlation.

    We're witnessing something significant at this point and possibly the end of QE has something significant to do with it besides the overall deflationary pressures that exist.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats the whole point Darkpurple, the Fed has been fighting the deflationary pressures with its QE all along.

      We are now seeing what the real world without the Fed's backstop looks like.

      There is no recovery, never has been, deflation is still there same as ever.

      Each time the paper fantasy ends, deflation shows up again.

      Delete
  13. If the stock market goes down 20% or more then we have some deflation for a short period, otherwise it is just wishful thinking. The Fed will soon start mouthing off, and become very conciliatory about interest rates. It is so predictable, and rather pathetic, in our illusory free non-existent capitalist markets. Their tolerance for a falling stock market is very low indeed, and we ask if there is manipulation?


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Peter;

      If I were you, I would let go of your fantasy of inflation being a problem and look at what the price charts are all saying. Inflation is not a problem nor will be it for some time. The problem is the exact opposite- deflation .
      This is a case of where one has to admit that they are wrong and move on. Let it go already. to say that "we have some deflation for a short time" when crude oil prices, along with gasoline price are collapsing due to slowing global economic growth is grossly wrongheaded. Please wake up.

      Delete
    2. Like I always say Dan, most traders embrace an idea until either the cows come home or they go broke. Nobody seems to understand that gold is the ultimate hedge against deflation and is a laggard in inflationary times until the top. We are trading deflationary mkts, not grocery store inflationary prices. There is no correlation, just like stk prices have nothing to do with main street. That is all from Sparks and have a great weekend everyone, as we move towards a Patriot/Seahawk Superbowl.

      Delete
    3. As Socrates said, first of all we have to define what we mean by the word inflation, otherwise we are not talking about the same subject, or they are just 'reactive' words, which is how they want them to be, devoid of thought. Do we mean expanding money supply, or do we mean price inflation?The proper meaning of the word is expanding money supply, and yes, we do have it, or did have it till very recently. This will eventually lead to price inflation unless it is contained within the banking system. As for price inflation, we also have had that until recently, and now for the first time in decades, when prices are not going up by very much, we are supposed to get very upset. If they really want price inflation it can be created very easily by releasing the printed money to the public in many different possible ways, but they don't want to do that, and why not?

      Delete
    4. Dan, where in my post above did I mention anything about inflation being a problem? I think you have made a quantum leap here. I think I actually inferred that DEFLATION is not much of a problem, and could be easily reversed if it exists. However, if the stock market collapsed then deflation really could become a problem. That is what I actually said.

      Delete
    5. Peter Dykes & Trader Dan,

      If I may chime in, I'd like to offer an opinion on the future. We know that oil is now below $60.00 but what the larger participants of the market yet to embrace is the debt market for the shale drillers. No where did any one embrace $55.00 /bbl oil in their plans. So the $1/2 trillion dollar high yield debt market for US shale oil drillers has or is about to be burnt toast. Can the system sustain that size of shock? What ramifications does this debt market collapse have for the US dollar? Now all of a sudden there's everyone scrambling to get out of the US $! Now where the strong US Dollar was creating deflation now could we get inflation? Answer that question & you'll have the next move afoot?

      Delete
  14. An interesting deflationary viewpoint to consider.
    Transcript of video interview...
    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
    ~Russell Napier: deflationary bust coming – hold cash and buy at the bottom~

    http://moneyweek.com/russell-napier-on-deflation/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dark, are you kidding me? Napier + National Enquirer + Elliot Wave = A great way to go broke.

      Delete
    2. Steve...he has an interesting viewpoint, nothing more/nothing less.

      I think we'll find out soon enough what large bank(s) or hedge funds (or countries!) are left holding the bag.
      At some point soon enough if this oil price collapse continues it'll claim some victims and all of this will start to make better sense.

      Delete
    3. Napier makes some sense, it is debt deflation they are fighting.

      It would be interesting to hear Napier's comments now, wonder if he would revise his QE has succeeded in stopping debt deflation comment below, too,

      QE only stops debt deflation while it is being done?

      It has not succeeded to fix the deflation problem at all.

      Merryn Somerset Webb: So, in this interpretation, QE can prevent disaster but it can’t improve the underlying economy and it can’t create inflation.

      Russell Napier: It was designed to stop a debt deflation. It seems to have succeeded.

      Delete
    4. I agree...those last two comments are the key takeaway or the points I paused at because I think that's what QE was about....to prevent deflation...and not cause rampant inflation.
      The Fed doesn't like saying "deflation" and would rather utter "disinflation" or "stagflation" or "inflation".

      Regarding oil...it was in the high $30's in 2009 before QE started. It might just do the same this time around but instead languish in the high $40's.
      That's just a guess and probably incorrect. It seems to me we're in extremely uncharted territory.

      Delete
  15. Dan, where in my post did I mention anything about inflation being a problem? What I inferred is that deflation is not much of a problem and can be easily reversed by the Fed, simply by restarting QE if you want inflationary monetary expansion, or by distributing money directly to the public if you want price inflation, and the only reasons you would want price inflation is to pay off debt dishonestly and surreptitiously, or to collect an unauthorized wealth tax from the people. Lack of inflation then becomes a problem to the government. Also, deflation could lead to a falling stock market, which is their pet marker of an improving economy, and shatter the belief they have created that the economy is improving.


    ReplyDelete
  16. Some interesting viewpoints...
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    "Spreading deflation across East Asia threatens fresh debt crisis"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11226558/Spreading-deflation-across-East-Asia-threatens-fresh-debt-crisis.html

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Low Oil Prices: Sign of a Debt Bubble Collapse, Leading to the End of Oil Supply?

    http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/09/21/low-oil-prices-sign-of-a-debt-bubble-collapse-leading-to-the-end-of-oil-supply/

    ReplyDelete
  17. http://www.susanschadler.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/SDR.doc

    So the SDR might be a misdirection ploy. Makes sense. The BRICS have something else in mind.

    ReplyDelete
  18. This stuck out.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141212_EOD10_0.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  19. I predict that in the next FOMC meeting the words 'considerable time' will be retained, and maybe even more soothing noises about delayed interest rate rises forthcoming, as the markets around the world have been looking very menacing this week. The FED will want to defuse this and turn it around for your standard Santa rally into the finale for the year. Result will be markets zooming upwards, and dollar falling. Oil, and gold will also benefit, with gold shares rising considerably.

    ReplyDelete
  20. The question of deflation, like inflation, is also a matter of semantics. As Socrates insisted, we must define the word first before we can have a sensible discussion about it. No wonder the authorities in Ancient Greece put the poor man to death, because most people don't think about the meaning of many words but just 'react' to them emotionally, so they become manipulative tools in the hands of politicians.

    Deflation is the opposite of inflation we can say. But do we mean here falling prices; reducing money supply from what was previously increasing money supply; or reducing money supply as in negative money supply, with money disappearing out of the system? All of these can have different consequences.

    First, we might ask the obvious question why falling prices should be a bad thing. After all, if prices fall we become better off because we can buy more, and if we buy more this should stimulate the economy. In periods of enormous expansion in the nineteenth century in Britain and America that is exactly what happened, but now apparently we are told we need moderate rising price inflation, and we have been conditioned to believe this is 'good' inflation. The oxymoron 'good inflation' is an Orwellian concept straight out of NEWSPEAK!

    On the other hand, if deflation means reducing money supply, or negative money supply, which may also lead to reduced prices, this is a different concept, and may well lead to recession, or even depression. The FED can counter this by increasing the money supply as it did with QE, and even trigger an artificial boom, which is now ending in our economy right now. This state is supported by the BELIEF of the people that it is actually taking place, which is an extremely important support to the maintenance of the boom. So far they have been successful in engendering this belief, but to be credible they point to a time in the not too distant future of 'normalizing' interest rates slowly, slowly, and then all will be as it should be. However, normalizing interest rates is impossible, because of the interest on the debt repayment being almost as great as the entire budget. Even the expectation of slightly rising interest rates could hit the stock market very hard, and cause real deflation, as vast quantities of money disappear out of the system. This is why the FED is so cautious and dilatory, but how much longer can they play this game of tease without actually doing something? To foster belief they must show they are in control, and know what they are doing, masters of the ship of state, so to speak. Once belief in the FED is shattered all hell will break loose.

    We are at the point now where the markets could tank, and the FED can be expected this week to be conciliatory to prop them up, which may see us through to early next year. Then what? If the markets go on falling heavily they are faced with one other choice, which is to reintroduce QE or its equivalent in disguised form, as in trying to fool the public it is not QE. This may temporarily reverse the fall in the markets but the price they pay is total loss of credibility, and shattering of the underpinning belief in themselves, showing they don't know what they are doing.

    IMHO we are very close to the denouement, and we should prepare ourselves accordingly. What is the investment we have always turned to in times of crisis since time immemorial?











    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "What is the investment we have always turned to in times of crisis since time immemorial?"

      "Beer!"


      Good stuff PD...food for thought.

      Delete
    2. You're right DPH. Alcohol is a wonderful inflation buster in more senses than one. Once, when I lived in South Africa, many years ago, and all was doom and gloom, I bought many dozens of cases of good whisky. After some years of heavy inflation I was able to sell all the cases very easily for a fat profit, outstripping price
      inflation, because, you see, my investment was so liquid.

      Delete
  21. I see Andrew Maguire over at KWN is bloviating the same old stale meme.

    Here's the kicker regarding the move down in gold to $1130-ish....
    "However this last move into the $1,130s was a historic move....
    “And we KNEW it was coming -- the two markets (paper and physical) have now fully broken apart."

    Sooo....he knew $1130 was coming yet he kept parroting the same BS for the last 3 years about strong buying at $1500...$1400...$1300...$1200 and now $1130?

    Give it up Andrew...and Eric...and all the other perma-BS'ers out there. All you've proven so far is that you'll say almost anything in order to spin some type of bullish slant to the bearish reality we've witnessed.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dark, just try getting an audited 2 year track record from this donkey; the only place he is ever quoted is at Clown World News; Eric King, what is your Plan B, when you finally get laughed off the net? Very Sad.

      Delete
  22. I'm sensing a bit of a turn away from the inflationary armageddon meme at ZH, and more toward the deflationary armageddon meme. (more posts from Automatic Earth is the tell). But on balance, ZH doesn't really care. As long as it involves armageddon, they'll fan the flames to the max.

    "It's not personal, Sonny. It's just business."

    ReplyDelete
  23. One more factor worth looking at is whether deflation or inflation are the cause of our economic problems, or the consequence. Most commentators and analysts, as well as the FED itself look at them as causes rather than consequences of wrong economic policy. Stands to reason that blame should never be acknowledged by the perpetrators, and also the symbiotically linked mainstream media that act as surrogates and exponents of broad based self-serving government policy.

    If they are the consequence, then tinkering with them by jawboning, QE, or even raising or lowering interest rates minimally, are not going to fix the situation. Unfortunately, the medicine which needed to be taken years ago was very harsh and prolonged with high interest rates, as in the Volcker years, so it was not taken; but now it is too late. Eventually there will be a collapse, which means Nature will administer the medicine for us, and then we will have to start again.

    The government, as represented by its minion the FED, hopes that we can grow our way out of the situation over a long period of time, by increasing productivity. Regrettably, the debts and unfunded liabilities are far too massive for that to happen. How do you grow your way out of 200 trillion dollar liabilities? No, the debt must be wiped out by high inflation, or by default, with appalling consequences. I think they they know that full well, and are just playing for time, like any self-respecting politician who wants himself and his buddies to remain in power as long as possible.




    ReplyDelete
  24. For any who are following the fortions or misfortions of TRX, please consider the following opinion.

    http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/2744945-tanzanian-royalty-exploration-convertible-note-issue-puts-a-nail-in-the-golden-coffin?source=email_rt_article_readmore&app=1&uide=1090007&uprof=45

    Mike

    ReplyDelete
  25. ~Record Oil Tankers Sailing to China Amid Stockpiling Signs~

    By Naomi Christie
    December 12, 2014 12:26 PM EST

    The number of supertankers sailing to China jumped to a record in ship-tracking data amid signs that the oil-price crash is spurring the Asian nation to stockpile.

    There were 83 very large crude carriers bound for Chinese ports, according to shipping signals from IHS Maritime compiled by Bloomberg at about 8:30 a.m. today in London. The ships would transport 166 million barrels, assuming standard cargoes, the largest number in data starting in October 2011. The cost of hiring the vessels surged to the highest in almost five years, according to Baltic Exchange data...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/record-oil-tankers-seen-sailing-to-china-amid-stockpiling-signs.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "Opportunity for Beijing and Washington in Venezuela’s Oil Crisis"

      ~China and the U.S. could join forces for a more sustainable oil policy in Venezuela~

      By Matt Ferchen
      December 11, 2014

      Dropping oil prices over the last few months have triggered a wave of reports about which countries stand to win and which to lose. While Russia, Iran and others are suffering, Venezuela emerges as the biggest loser of all.
      With oil accounting for over 95 percent of Venezuela’s export earnings and nearly 50 percent of overall government revenues, the drop in global oil prices from over $110 a barrel during the summer to under $70 today has led to much speculation about a potential Venezuelan sovereign default or even government collapse.

      On the other side of the dropping oil price equation sit the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil importers and Venezuela’s most important oil trade and investment partners. Although the U.S. has become decreasingly dependent on Venezuelan oil and China increasingly tied to the Venezuelan petrostate through trade and finance, Venezuela’s deepening crisis presents leaders in both Washington and Beijing,...(cont.)

      http://thediplomat.com/2014/12/opportunity-for-beijing-and-washington-in-venezuelas-oil-crisis/

      Delete
  26. This is going to be interesting : Socrates I.A + Martin Armstrong vs my simple 2week chart on the SP500 lol.

    1) Armstrong
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/13/dow-the-week-of-dec-15th/

    Still in an uptrend, no reasons to worry. Low and turning point next wee.

    2) 2 week-chart SP500 :
    - tendance en ligne theory tells me that after breaing through the upward channel's support line, prices will do an ultimate top above previous top.
    So, it's done for the new highs, of course since we broke above 2030.
    Now the theory warns that the recent highs might well be the ultimate and last highs of all this trending move of 3 years, before a real stronger correction.
    So let's see. I went short lately at 2050 when we bounced and european markets started to drop like a stone whine US seemed once more in levitation.
    I know what the fundamentals say : money is flowing from the peiphery towards the core, and US stocks will keep levitating because of the money flows. Let's see who's right :)
    Bull or bear, one should proceed with caution.
    Have a nice weekend,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HDH
      Good to see you.

      I believe there will be a further drop of the DOW at least to the 20 DMA. Likely the S&P too. Both followed by dead cat bounce or sidewise. Whether we get further correction from there depends on money flows. Monday will be interesting with Asia already opening down.

      Delete
    2. Dow 50 day MA is 17267, Dow is at 17281 as of last Friday

      Do you mean the 50 DMA Mike, as the Dow is at it now almost?

      What the 20 day at?

      Delete

  27. The RMB inclusion in the SDR is looking more and more like a cover for something else. There is no Plan B for the IMF. It's a bluff.

    http://www.hkiec.hk/web/en/investment/understanding-products/rmb-products/types-of-rmb-products/rmb-denominated-paper-gold-scheme.html#5

    ReplyDelete
  28. If oil is going to 40 and staying there for an extended period, then it's safe to say China has hedged its Treasury holdings. Mr. Dropoff in Petrodollar Generation, may I introduce you to the Lady Treasury Maturity Profile. Oh, I'm sorry the Lady has apparently left with Sir QE Infinity.

    ReplyDelete
  29. U.S. Congress...blatantly bought off and selling out...

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/14/are-you-really-ready-for-the-world-to-be-ruled-by-bankers/

    ReplyDelete
  30. he he...i forwarded that on too DPH, but soon learned it was just satire.
    The joke, after all, is only slightly more bizarre from the actual goings on in Congress.
    http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/citigroup-move-headquarters-u-s-capitol-building

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link.
      I hope it's a joke. My eye's glazed over and my mouth hung open a bit when I first read it.
      I tried looking online for other sources regarding that story and I can't find any comments saying that it's a sarcastic spoof other than Boriwitz being known for satire.

      Delete
  31. 61.25!
    ~☆~☆~☆~
    "Ruble Tumbles Past 60 Per Dollar as Traders Press Central Bank"

    By Vladimir Kuznetsov and Ksenia Galouchko
    December 15, 2014 8:46 AM EST

    The ruble tumbled past 60 for the first time as traders tested the Russian central bank’s willingness to defend the currency amid an oil slump that is pushing the economy closer to recession...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/ruble-weakens-to-record-before-russia-auction-to-ease-squeeze.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah...I think I had 1000 euros left in Rubles, in cash, I was lazy to change it back.
      Bought at 48 for 1 euro, now it must be 75 for a euro in only a few months... :(

      From Ruble to Rubble, there is only one little step.


      Delete
    2. 79, 75 was a few hours ago.

      Delete
    3. There's little chance Russia allows the Ruble to continue to plunge off a cliff.

      I'm not sure what the BOR will do or how they'll stop it but at some point Putin will (over?)react as the corner he's allowed himself to be painted into gets smaller.

      Dangerous game of chicken going on. It's his move next.

      Delete
    4. I don't see what the BoR could do to stop the Ruble from falling if there is a massive capital move outside their currency. They lack the firepower, don't they? Maybe they can defend short-term, but longer term it is a doomed attempt. I don't know if they will defend anything or just give up the ruble for a while just as in the early 90s, and keep buying gold instead? That will be interesting.

      Delete
    5. Wow...BOR raisd their interest rate to 17%
      ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~•~☆~☆~☆~☆~
      "Russia Defends Ruble With Biggest Rate Rise Since 1998"

      By Olga Tanas and Anna Andrianova
      December 15, 2014 7:38 PM EST

      Russia took its biggest step yet to shore up the ruble and defuse the currency crisis threatening its stricken economy.

      In a surprise announcement just before 1 a.m. in Moscow, the Russian central bank said it would raise its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent, effective today. The move was the largest single increase since 1998, when Russian rates soared past 100 percent and the government defaulted on debt.

      The news prompted an immediate gain in the ruble, with one-month ruble forwards up 1.6 percent in Asian trading.

      Yet the announcement, as well as its timing, underscored the financial straits in which Russia now finds itself. If sustained, the new higher rates would squeeze an economy that is already being hurt by sanctions led by the U.S. and European Union, and by a collapse in oil prices. Some analysts said they doubted the economy could withstand such high rates for long. “This move symbolizes the surrender of...(cont.)

      http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-increases-key-interest-rate-to-17-to-stem-ruble-decline.html

      Delete
    6. ~1998 Comes Calling in Currency and Credit Plunges From Russia to Venezuela~

      By Boris Korby
      December 15, 2014 5:59 PM EST

      Emerging markets are ending the year much like how they began it -- in freefall.

      From Russia to Venezuela, Thailand to Brazil, stocks, bonds and currencies across the developing world are plunging.

      The Russian ruble tumbled past 64 for the first time on record today while Venezuelan bonds sank below 40 cents on the dollar and Thai stocks fell the most in 11 months. Brazil’s corporate debt market is reeling as a graft probe of state oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA infects the market.

      All of this has something of a familiar feel to it, dating back to 1998, when, just like now, oil was tumbling and driving crude exporters Russia and Venezuela into financial crisis...(cont.)

      http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-venezuela-rekindle-memories-of-1998-emerging-market-rout.html

      Delete
    7. They have 420 billion dollar of currency reserves.

      This 12% move on flat oilprices looks like the mark up top to me.

      17% rates is serious action.

      Delete
    8. 92 ruble to the euro - there she goes.

      Delete
  32. also to be noticed : Gold 1240 once again confirmed the red downwards channel on the weekly time unit and gold prices bounced back under the resistance. The downwards channel is intact, and any contact with the resistance leads to a drop of gold's price.
    This is really the mail resistance I'm watching.
    As long as we remain within this channel, to me the direction of gold is down.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi Dan,

    I just read your article about oil on friday :
    http://traderdan.com/?p=681
    How impressive!
    How do you explain such "professional" large hedge funds can be trapped that way? Has the financial world gone mad or totally incompetent?

    Anyhow...I was wondering whether I should try to buy around 60 or not on the basis that we were in contact with an inf bollinger band horizontal, when I realized...that the bollinger bands of the faster time unit were not both going down, indicating a downtrend, or converging, indicating imminent bounce, but were still diverging, i.e increase of volatility and most powerful phase of the move still on! So out of the way, and my goodness, your analysis about trapped hedges on the wrong side explains much better why we are in a freefall than any machiavelous jamesbond bluffeld's anti russian like conspiracy theories :)

    ReplyDelete
  34. Since I am flat the market I thought I would ask you all a simple question; To wit, who has the least amount of credibility out there? Tyler Durden, Jim Sinclair, or Eric King? The second question is who are the dumber ones that argue their points at these lame sites, and why oh why are these sites even still alive? Simple answer is, all of the above in our internet sewer. Have a great holiday season everyone, as I stay flat and let the algos jack everything out of shape. Watch out for gapping action New Year's Day!!

    ReplyDelete
  35. "Swami just points me in a direction, but does give me the details. I am a good soldier so I just march in the direction given.
    Yes, I am related to the Rothchilds." Jim Sinclair

    Jim Sinclair hands down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sinclair/Durden and all their apostates are #1
      They've helped singe an entire generation of investors whether they be retail investors or hedge fund managers who listened to them.

      KWN is in a class of it's own....like a cheap sensationalist tabloid is.
      Three headed alien baby?
      Elvis still alive?
      How about gold/$100,000 and $1,000 silver?

      Delete
  36. 80!!! It's about to get ugly!
    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~

    ~Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase~

    By Vladimir Kuznetsov and Ksenia Galouchko
    December 16, 2014 7:20 AM EST

    The ruble plunged to 80 a dollar for the first time as investors speculated Russia will announce CAPITAL CONTROLS after the largest interest-rate increase in 16 years failed to revive confidence in the currency.

    That was the biggest drop since 1998, the year Russia defaulted on its local debt. The currency erased a gain of 11 percent as investors shrugged off a surprise Bank of Russia decision to take its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent. Ten-year government-bond yields jumped 317 basis points to a record 16.4 percent.

    Russian central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina may resort to capital controls as she runs out of options...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/ruble-snaps-six-day-loss-on-surprise-rate-increase-to-17-percent.html

    ReplyDelete
  37. So with all the heebie jeebies in the market this morning, I decided to check in and see what's the chatter over at Turd Ferguson's Island of Misfit Toys. The first comment I see leads off with this:

    "The Russians should stop pissing about with interest rates. They are under Financial attack and the best defence is offence. How big are their reserves? $400bn? How much to clear the comex & LBMA of silver, $2bn? It's chump change, but of enormous symbolic effect."

    Really? "enormous"?? Sorry to break it to those folks, but silver has absolutely nothing to do with anything that is going on in the world today. Silver matters to nobody. NOBODY. As long as those goofballs are viewing the world through that sort of distorted prism, there will be no end to their pain.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's always going to be something.
      Is there anything that isn't desperately attached somehow/someway to gold or silver exploding and changing the course of monetary history?
      In some respects many of the hardcore permabulls are idolizing gold or silver as some type of savior from impending doom.

      I see Turd is still lampreying himself to the discredited Andrew Maguire (and the other metal hucksters) analysis while claiming to be independant of Maguires influence on him. Really???
      For a guy who openly mocked or ridiculed (and at times sarcastically impersonated) Eric King it's odd that he'd link to KWN and the Maguire idiocy as some type relevant or credible information.

      Of course, ALL of this market turmoil and the metals prices and their action was predicted long ago. (sarc on)

      That's funny because there's no shortage of quotes and predictions...(of which he was certain!)...that says otherwise.


      What we need is a list of the "experts" and their 2014 predictions as the year wraps up.

      Delete
  38. And...stocks go green, metals go red, and ZHer's are beside themselves with rage. Why do they hate America? L...O...frickin L.

    ReplyDelete
  39. If Obama signs that Ukrainian lethal aid bill it just about guarantee's the current dynamic in play gets much hotter and soon.

    The pen is mightier than the sword...but not for long. If Obama's pen touches that bill Putin is left with no choice but to react with a sword.

    The US/NATO are counting on it.
    Simply incredible :-o

    ReplyDelete
  40. Clown World News has a new layout, but content remains the same, which is to say, pathetic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Like the old saying goes..."If it isn't broke, don't fix it."

      Looks to me like the PM blogosphere model is starting to crack under the weight of it's own lack of credibility.
      You can fool some of the people some of the time...but not all the time...no matter how hard you try to spin EVERYTHING.

      Delete
  41. Markets certainly have a case of the yips. My work is telling me to stay with stocks for now.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Tomorrow is FOMC day. Ol' Yeller will be very careful not to upset the markets, which are very shaky. Must have the Santa rally. Expect "considerable time" to be retained, or if this sounds a bit hackneyed, some new configuration of bamboozling words that amounts to the same, or maybe even looser. In the latter case the markets would go bonkers. This will result in:

    Rising worldwide stock markets
    Rising oil prices
    Rising gold price
    Falling dollar

    All in a day's work for the Fed, but only for a while. Beyond that the crystal ball gets murky.



    ReplyDelete
  43. The average Russian would love to have a stack of gold coins set aside for these rainy days. Gold playing its role of insurance. All those tons the gov't has been buying will be seen as an astute move.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gold in rubles was trading at approx. 45,000 RUB/oz. in July 2014 and today an ounce will fetch about 83,495 RUB.

      The gold chart priced in rubles is starting to go parabolic. Anyone with gold or USD in their possesion will have weathered the RUB situation pretty well at this point.

      http://www.goldpriceoz.com/gold-price-russia/

      Delete
    2. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/western-banks-cut-liquidity-russian-entities

      The avalanche has started.
      You can prevent an avalanche, but you can't stop it once it's started.
      People will follow and massively exchange their rubles for dollars.
      I would not defend the ruble too much, as it is a lost cause and it would only diminish the value of my already dwindling reserves.
      But russians are able to get through long winters.
      It's a question of endurance here, not a short term sprint imho.
      Anyway, I think the ruble will be sacrificed. They must know there is no way to fight the trend now.

      Delete
    3. This would be negative for gold if it did happen.
      I don't see it happening.
      ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
      "Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold"

      By Debarati Roy
      December 17, 2014 4:05 AM EST

      Russia’s surprise interest-rate increase failed to stop the plummeting ruble. Another tool available to repair economic havoc caused by sanctions and falling oil prices: selling gold.

      Russia holds about 1,169.5 metric tons of the precious metal, the central bank said last month. That’s about 10 percent of its foreign reserves, according to the London-based World Gold Council. The country added 150 tons this year through Nov. 18, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina told lawmakers.

      Russia’s cash pile has dropped to a five-year low...(cont.)

      http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/traders-betting-russia-s-next-move-will-be-to-sell-gold.html

      Delete
  44. Just noticed, GDXJ made a new low today. Kind of under the radar, with all eyes on oil and rubles these days. It's now down 88% from it's Dec. 2010 high. Even when metals are flat, those scam artist little "miners" issue shares and burn money like there's no tomorrow.

    Recently, I checked up on all the little companies I used to follow. Its ghastly how many new shares have been issued in the past couple of years. Insane dilution. Even if another bubble can get cooking again right away, the per share upside is extremely limited. And it gets worse, because every little bump to the upside will be met with another wave of financings.

    ReplyDelete
  45. I think Tues was a severe tax loss day.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Jasper was right. TRX 65 cents going to zero

    ReplyDelete
  47. TRX collapsed 22% yesterday. Jims game is over. I wonder who he will blame ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Was a $7 stock back in the bubble days.

      Delete
    2. If you go to jsmineset.com you'll see Sinclair is blaming this guy...

      http://m.seekingalpha.com/author/james-emerson-cfa/instablog

      Delete
    3. Looking at the responses by the CIGAs is probably safer to be anonimous not only for reason of fear of being sued by Sinclair on shareholder money but also some of these dolts might actually do something violent.

      Sinclair is utterly irresponsible in so many ways.

      Delete
  48. Stock permashorts getting fried once again, lol.



    ReplyDelete
  49. Another Two By Four upside the head yesterday to those who thought they could just buy junior miners and put them away for that huge someday payoff. Paramount got taken out yesterday at 90 cents. Sadly, it was a $4 stock back in the bubble daze.

    Hmmm...I guess that really didn't work out. But that's what I've been trying to tell people. The days of the multibillion dollar buyout for some piece of second hand moose pasture are over.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Here's another one today. Goldgroup used to be a $1.50 stock. Today they sold their flagship project, and the stock has popped up to 21 cents. Hooorayyy.

    ReplyDelete
  51. didn't you once have an your own forum dedicated to gold stocks over at TFMR Eric?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes I did, as you know full well. The experience helped me to learn what a never ending money pit these turkeys are.

      For the record, miners are currently down 65% from where I bailed out on mine. Probably the greatest macro call of my life. And yes, I still keep track, since the numbers still bring me joy almost every single day.

      The point of my posts is to steer any new shooters away from the sector as a whole. If new money were to simply say "I'll buy anything and everything EXCEPT miners", they'd be money ahead in their lives. The sector itself is a total fraud.

      Delete
    2. I fooled around with Paramount at one time and never held onto it for any length of time. In and out.
      Nailed it one time by buying it in the post-market one night and sold it pre-market the next day for a nice 25% gain.
      Those types of trades in the miners were possible back then when that sector was in it's mania.
      Seems like such a long time ago at this point.

      On another note...I find it hard to believe Russia would sell (lease?) it's gold but desperate times require somewhat desperate measures.
      I see ZH running another speculative piece today about SocGen stating they believe Russia has already started selling some bullion.

      Hard to say if Russia is or isn't doing so but the chatter and perception they might could have a chilly effect on gold pretty quickly if the chatter persists.

      China opening up a RMB swap line to Russia makes more sense now if Russia had to pledge some gold back to China. Interesting times for sure.

      Russia needs China. China doesn't need Russia...except for it's land/resources that borders China to the north.

      Delete
  52. the point of my post, and in the spirit of Christmas i might add, is to ask you to give it a rest. those who lost money do not need to be reminded day after live long day. and no one thinks you are a genius either. all you have done is gone from one momo investing theme to another. what is this thing above that you call "work". do you have an alert sent to your phone when a moving average is crossed? good grief. so Merry Christmas, and also to all of you out there who lost money due to investing in the metals. you weren't stupid, nor did you deserve it. and to close, there is more to life than an obsession with money, much, much more.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Every one of us has a list somewhere, even if only in the back of our minds, entitled "Mistakes never to make again". The common theme on my list is all the times I allowed myself to get all wrapped up in the so-called "fundamentals", and other related fairy tales, while simultaneously ignoring the basic simple trend on the charts. I've vowed not to do it anymore, and if some other random blog reader can learn the lessons I've learned, on the cheap instead of the hard way, all the better.

    That's the message.

    Maybe I'm just a shitty messenger. And I'm ok with that.

    ReplyDelete
  54. A sharp finger poke into Putin's chest...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-18/world-awaits-russian-response-obama-makes-lethal-aid-ukraine-legal

    ReplyDelete
  55. maybe Eric. thanks for toning it down a notch.

    crazy stuff DPH. the Cuba stuff is pretty wild also. who decided what? the American voter??? and of course the knee jerk response from the R's is no way, Jose. (pun, not race card)

    political theater all. hang all bankers, all politicians, and if 2016 is Clinton vs. Bush, i may just take that rope and hang myself instead!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm glad they're trying to reestablish relations. 50 years was long enough and the time is right.
      The US will negate any Russian influence and spying that was going on. At this point in time the Cuba move makes too much sense not to do.
      Raul Castro also realizes Russia and Venezuela could no longer offer the aid Cuba depended on.
      U.S. corporate capital pouring into Cuba will transform their economy and future for better or worse.

      Plus I hear the bass fishing is unreal!

      Delete
    2. If you are tired of Clinton and Bush, I think one of the sons of Nicolas Sarkozy is finishing West Point this year. After that, he could be a good candidate, couldn't he? ouch...

      Delete
    3. i think you mean Louis Sarkozy at West Point, but is he a US citizen? maybe he could still be King or even Czar of something. the titles King Louis and Czar Nicolas both have a certain pleasing ring.

      Delete
  56. maybe we can get rid of Daylight Savings Time now too. and quit meddling in the Ukraine - which is even closer than 90 miles from Russia.

    my only regret is that my gifts, er gratuities of Canadian sourced Cuban cigars aren't going to be that impressive going forward.

    and rum. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  57. Dow up...421 pts
    S&P up...48!!! :-o

    All the talk about QE ending and the markets collapsing thus necessitating more QE asap was a doomer outlook that's desperate for ANYTHING to propel the metals upward.

    Meanwhile...the equities markets are surging even if it's in a whipsaw manner.
    We touched 17,000 DOW a few months ago and then dropped back to almost 16,000.
    We almost kissed 18,000 a week or so ago and dropped back to almost 17,000 and it now looks to be headed to 18K+

    We're melting up while commodities melt down and there's no real inflation worries on the horizon (besides smaller pizza's etc).
    Just about every hardcore 'bug prediction regarding QE hasn't happened.
    Quite the opposite in fact.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just about every hardcore 'bug prediction regarding QE hasn't happened.
      Quite the opposite in fact.

      But let's put it in perspective.......the markets seemed to be in meltdown until the fed came out with the " patience " word and only then went nuts ( how f*cking retarded can they be to act like that ) so I would be ready for a real fast exit and not be lulled to complacency.

      Delete
  58. even TRX rocked today.

    maybe we are finally getting that Santa Claus rally. lol. ouch, bad pun.

    see y'all later. i am putting myself on ignore.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking at the convertible debt deal and it being guaranteed by the subsidiary companies it appears to me the company will soon have new ownership.

      I wonder who will that be. Chances are Sinclair found a way to screw the CIGAs for a big fare well. If he moves to tanzania after the company folds, Sinclair stole the company.

      Awesome. He is like a bond movie villain.

      Delete
    2. Frank Guistra, Frank Guistra; where does eric klowner news find these guys? Ask yourself if you were a billionaire would you subject yourself to an inane interview with a charlatan? Where is the upside? Those who know, say nothing. Those who know nothing get interviews in the lame stream media and that is all.

      Delete
    3. You only have too look at that smirk on Frank Giustras face to know he cant be trusted.

      Delete
  59. Hubert, what is your current view on EUR/USD?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hy dfly, we bounced for the 4th time on the support of the descending wedge. Technically I'm afraid we can break through and join 1.18, but as long as the support is holding...
      I guess we are going to see a lot of short term volatility because we are now in contact with the important support area around 1.20, so bulls are going to try to buy, bears will make some profits, etc...but overall it seems to me we are still headed down longer term because of simple things : Euro, Europe are a mess, France is a mess, Italy is an awful mess, ECB and Germany do not agree about what to do or how to fo it, plus at the moment it is perceived that ECB's rate will be lower than in the US. So, not many good news to be long the Eur Usd.

      Delete
  60. Wow, what a crazy week. I hope everybody here came out in one piece. Plenty of places for missteps.

    Something Dan and others have mentioned here this year, the trend of things that we would think would take months to work through the markets, seem to be fully digested in weeks or even days. Bizarro world. Is lower oil good for stocks or bad for stocks? Well it depends on which day you are asking about!

    ReplyDelete
  61. Just took a peek at a 3 year gold chart. It's still pretty ugly. Lower highs and lower lows still very much in place.

    ReplyDelete
  62. so, that US $. Eight year high and all. Any reason for it to slow down now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably not for the foreseeable future Scruff. $US and gold are rising against all currencies. Gold is basically treading water in relation to the dollar. No living soul knows what the the new year has in store.

      Delete
  63. Have you seen this "Debt Jubilee" garbage from Sprott Money that ZH has been passing around? Probably the stupidest thing I've ever seen.

    Makes me happy to see yet another day of stocks up and metals down, just to stick it up their patootie one more time. This never gets old!

    ReplyDelete
  64. EUR USD.
    Danger zone.

    http://i57.tinypic.com/b8re39.jpg


    On the weekly time unit, the inf bollinger band is now at 1.20, allowing prices to reach that level. There is a support line in the current area at 1.2230. If it doesn't hold...watch out because the ET MACD is showing something quite worrisome : look at the Bollinger Bands. Both are heading down. Now the ET MACD reversed from a high while those bands headed down. Usually when that happens, within around 3 to 4 candles, the inf Bollinger band is supposed to reverse UP and provide some nice support.
    But that did not happen. And when it does not happen, it usually means we are within a very strong downtrend, and prices are going to keep heading down. (I don't say I'm right, I'm sharing my "theories", so let's follow what happens next).

    Now what about the daily time unit?

    http://i60.tinypic.com/1z4vpm0.jpg

    Well well, here as well sitting on the blue support line...if it cracks, same as weekly...we could head down towards 1.20 quite quickly. The MACD is breaking its propagation axis. Both CDUR are heading down.

    Really, 1.22 area had better hold for bulls.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Not much to say except...
    Dow over 18,000
    S&P headed to 2100
    USD above 90 / JPY 120 +
    Oil resting at 55
    Gold resisting 1180
    Silver resisting 16
    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
    "China quietly joins Asia's currency wars to avert deflation"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11309243/China-quietly-joins-Asias-currency-wars-to-avert-deflation.html

    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
    "Ruble Swap Shows China Challenging IMF as Emergency Lender"

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/yuan-ruble-swap-shows-china-challenging-imf-as-emergency-lender.html

    My guess going forward would be that an upcoming emerging market country (EMC) debt crisis (denominated in $6 + trillion USD) is mostly resolved by a China/BOC bailout/lifeline where trillions upon trillions of RMB are injected into the EMC's economies and the FX markets.
    I think it possible the IMF utilizes the upcoming EMC debt crisis, and subsequent massive RMB bailout, to alter the weighting of the SDR currency basket afterwards.

    Imho, the upcoming EMC's debt crisis is the catalyst for the Yuan to solidify it's burgeoning international status among the other top world currencies and the IMF seizes the moment...or at least tries to.

    With the USD headed towards 100 and the JPY headed towards 150+ a EMC debt crisis is almost a certainty...as is the Yuans transcendance onto the global stage.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Red China's ascendance to a world power happens only by acquisition of other country's property and mineral rights. So far their banking prowess is limited by their own stupidity. If it wasn't for the world economies crashing, Red China wouldn't be able to take advantage of opportune defaultings or stepping in to 'assist' in bailouts. But such is how power is created.

    Draghi in his non-elected position has almost completed the slash and burn policy in Euroland banking, there is nothing left standing to slash so he will move on to a political position provided to him as a reward.

    Falling oil price is still the biggest story of this young century with all its ramifications. Not even Armstrong saw that one coming unless it is grouped in with deflation of all commodities. He claims high oil prices led to investment in better oil extraction techniques and alternative energies. I don't think anyone thought the US would become energy dependent again in a matter of years.

    Anyway, Armstrong seems to be the only one with a clue. Euro to par with the US$, Japan finally folds, world deflation still on its way in earnest, bankers hobble all economies while the US markers go on to greater highs in the new year, precious metals finally bottom and begin rising with the US$.

    The real question will be which wars will breakout and where to cover for countries defaulting.

    ReplyDelete
  67. "Russia on Verge of Junk as S&P Puts Rating on Negative Watch"

    By Olga Tanas, Anna Andrianova and Ye Xie
    December 23, 2014 2:08 PM EST

    Russia may lose its investment-grade credit rating for the first time in a decade after Standard & Poor’s said it’s considering a cut amid the country’s worst economic crisis since the 1998 debt default...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/russia-on-verge-of-junk-as-s-p-puts-rating-on-negative-watch-1-.html
    ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
    "UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile"

    By Shai Oster and Justina Lee
    December 23, 2014 9:34 PM EST

    UBS Group AG is flagging risks from China’s $1 trillion worth of unhedged foreign debt as forecasters see bets against the greenback unwinding in 2015.

    The world’s second-largest economy is exposed to shifts in currency and interest rates as never before because of expanding international trade and easing foreign-exchange regulations, said Stephen Andrews, head of Asia banks research in Hong Kong at UBS. Daiwa Capital Markets has a $1 trillion estimate for carry-trade inflows since 2008, bets on the difference between yields in China and overseas. It sees a 5.7 percent drop in the yuan next year.

    The renminbi is heading for a 2.8 percent loss in 2014 as the dollar gains on Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates and the People’s Bank of China cuts borrowing costs to support a flagging economy.

    Capital controls and record foreign-exchange reserves will help the PBOC cope with any similar situation to 1997’s Asian financial crisis, when firms struggled to repay debt as currencies slumped,...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/ubs-raises-flag-on-china-s-1-trillion-overseas-debt-pile.html

    ReplyDelete
  68. ~Gold Assets in Biggest Bullion ETF Tumble Most Since ‘13~

    By Millie Munshi
    December 23, 2014 8:44 PM EST

    Investors in the world’s biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion dumped the most gold in 18 months as the U.S. economic recovery cut demand for a haven.

    Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell 1.6 percent yesterday to 712.9 metric tons, the smallest amount since September 2008. The drop was the biggest since June 2013.

    Bullion for immediate delivery is heading for the first back-to-back annual decline since 2000. A collapse in oil prices is curbing demand for the metal as an inflation hedge, while the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates. Gains for the dollar and U.S. equities have also made gold less attractive as an alternative asset...(cont.)

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-24/gold-assets-in-biggest-bullion-etf-tumble-most-since-13.html

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  69. Gold seems to be drifting off. I'm disappointed, since I'd like to sell a few more coins in the new year.

    My amateur charting eye says 1130 needs to be tested again. I was just hoping it would wait a couple of weeks.

    Some 20 francs and some 5 pesos are packed and ready to say bye-bye.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hurry and dump or be prepaid to hold through the next phase in this correction. Or you could sell now and buy back near half price soon. When gold gets back down to $1,000 probably going to be some spike lows develop from that level. Capitulation will create some real bargains. Armstrong: "A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we will see new lows next year. A year-end closing BELOW 1155 will guarantee that drop below $1,000 is coming. The main support next year lies well below the market between $778-$618..."

      Delete
    2. "A year-end closing below 1227 will signal we will see new lows next year. A year-end closing BELOW 1155 will guarantee that drop below $1,000 is coming"

      Anything asserted without explanation is complete BS.
      So, 1227 huh? Why not 1226 or 1228?

      Delete
    3. A merry christmas to everyone :)

      Delete
    4. When you have the money and the computer power plus the programming available to run numbers then you might understand why and how targets are generated from all the input. Benchmarks are fairly easy, arising from breakout points or historic lows and highs. Of course, you have to adjust for inflation depending on which points in time are in play.

      Which targets, daily-weekly-monthly-yearly, get hit, the picture becomes a bit clearer as to future events. Throw in cycles and you might have something.

      Helps to be dynamic in adjustments.

      Delete
    5. I respectully disagree with the short-term prognoses above.

      On Dec 24, gold began minute wave 3 up (of intermediate wave 2 correction).. On the hourly chart you can see gold has confirmed this by breaking out of its downward channel.

      Third waves typically see more momentum, like today, so it shouldn't take too long until gold reaches its last high of 1238.

      Gold target in January is from 1278 (minute 3 = minute 1) to 1283 (intermediate 2 = 0.618 of intermediate 1). Waiting to short from up near there.

      After that, primary wave 5 will commence and take gold to multi-year lows next year, but it won't be $600 or even $850 like MA says. More likely approx $1000 based on my wave counts & Fibonacci analyses. That will usher in another opportune long entry point.

      But of course there are no certainties in this uncertain market.

      btw, WTF happened to this blog ??

      Delete
    6. Read back a few posts by Trader Dan. He has left this open for his occasional post and our repartee.
      His main effort is on "Trader Dan's World", a paid site that is more attuned to traders than the marauding gold bugs that made such disagreeable posts here.

      Delete
  70. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. "China Steps In as World's New Bank"

      DEC 25, 2014 6:00 PM EST
      By William Pesek

      Thanks to China, Christine Lagarde of the International Monetary Fund, Jim Yong Kim of the World Bank and Takehiko Nakao of the Asian Development Bank may no longer have much meaningful work to do.

      Beijing's move to bail out Russia, on top of its recent aid for Venezuela and Argentina, signals the death of the post-war Bretton Woods world. It’s also marks the beginning of the end for America's linchpin role in the global economy and Japan's influence in Asia.

      What is China's new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank if not an ADB killer? If Japan, ADB's main benefactor, won't share the presidency with Asian peers, Beijing will just use its deep pockets to overpower it.
      "...China stepping up its role as lender of last resort upends an economic development game that's been decades in the making...(cont.)

      http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-25/china-steps-in-as-worlds-new-bank
      ~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~
      "Trichet Sees G-7 Opportunity for Currency Accord"

      By Mark Deen and Simon Kennedy
      December 24, 2014 7:16 AM EST

      Former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said there is a “window of opportunity” for the world’s advanced economies to strike a fresh accord against competitive devaluations.

      Trichet, who attended Group of Seven meetings over the course of three decades starting as a French treasury official in the 1980s, said his suggestion is specifically for currencies that make up the Special Drawing Rights basket at the International Monetary Fund. SDRs are currently comprised of dollars, euros, yen and the pound. They do not include the Chinese yuan....(cont.)

      http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-24/trichet-sees-g-7-window-of-opportunity-for-fresh-currency-accord.html#disqus_thread

      Delete
    2. I caught that article too.

      http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/5/china/aiib-not-just-another-multilateral

      http://china.huanqiu.com/News/mofcom/2014-12/5302955.html

      http://china.huanqiu.com/News/mofcom/2014-12/5302955.html

      And the latest from Christine herself.

      http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/next-year-is-make-or-break-for-global-economy-304132.html

      IMF is a bunch of wannabes. Like Tom Hagen they're out.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfxBUTJeD_M

      Delete
  71. Ben Carlson opines on "How To Spot A Bad Forecaster". My only gripe was that he didn't explicitly include "I was undone by manipulation and corruption in the markets" on the list of excuses.

    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/spot-bad-forecaster/

    ReplyDelete
  72. Hmm...

    http://i60.tinypic.com/2rc61ea.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  73. I bought all I could in gold, as Bo Polny wrote "I don't care where are the prices, they will end the year at 2000 $" :)
    lol.
    Can't think about those who subscribed to his BS newsletter at 20.000 $ per year.

    ReplyDelete

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