“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Friday, November 21, 2014

My thoughts on today's action

See the link... no other comment offered could say it any better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFCM6TZgTMI

Euro plunge below 1.2400 reversed the money flows from the "Buy China" interest rate cut to "Sell out because of the Strong Dollar".

Where the hell this ends today is anyone's guess.

Central Bankers and other foreign government officials have essentially destroyed the integrity of the entire financial system with their constant meddling.

27 comments:

  1. Meddlers, absolutely. it's pathetic, but it also shows how desperate they are. The chronic economic situation cannot be saved by QE or money printing. It is too late to do anything much now and we must all pay the price for these appalling policies over many years.With most world economies in a tailspin, the US cannot escape the turmoil, and to say it is not as bad as the others is small comfort.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe they can extend this far longer then anyone might've imagined possible.
      I would imagine if any one of us had a great grandparent that were still alive who was financially intelligent and an observer of markets that they probably were sayong the same types of things in the late 1920's about the Great Depression, the Gold Act and subsequent bank holiday in the early 30's etc. that they probably thought "The End" was near...but it wasn't...then WWII happened!

      I'm not sure exactly how the CB's/Govts. will do so but the element of time allows for many things to happen gradually and not suddenly like many anticipated...like our great grandparents might've.
      It seems entirely possible we could be talking about the same type of things 5,10, 20 years from now except the names of the CB programs or monetary measures will be named differently at that point.
      Hasn't it always been that way?

      We haven't seen anything yet eventhough we've seen plenty.
      There's more to come...possibly decades more.

      Delete
    2. These Fed bubble cycles seem to last 5 to 7 years. We are at year 6. It remains to be seen if the next crash will result in a currency crisis. Hence the inflation/deflation debate. In the "deflation" after the 1929 crash , gold was revalued 40%. Miners like Homestake did well. Ooohhh ahhh what a crazy proposition to be long gold/miners today !

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  2. That is an excellent clip for the moment, thanks Dan.

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    Replies
    1. The crosscurrents are crazy today to get a read on anything. and the crosscurrents themselves are not sure as they are off their best levels so maybe we should hang it up and go watch the full episode.

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    2. The problem with crosscurrents is that we no longer have ‘rational’ human beings making decisions based upon longer term fundamental drivers. Instead we have computers who are at war with each other. Long term fundamentals may win out, but it may be extremely volatile and slow getting there.

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  3. Never should have shored up the mkts and bailed out the Street 5 years ago. But it is what it is. Having said that, if they think they can shove austerity down everyone's throats, I would suggest that they are broadly underestimating what can unfold when the public finally wakes up. Read the 4th Turning or some of what Spellcheck Armstrong writes and make up your own minds. Parasites do not go on forever. Sowing the seeds of their destruction as we speak. Have a good weekend all.

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  4. as Dan has mentioned previously, there is just too much money sloshing around in the world, trillions and trillions. also with interest rates near zero, the bigs can trade off borrowed money.

    GCz4 the comex gold futs did reach a target today, the 50-day SMA touch, and these key moving averages are support and resistance over and over and over again! gold went from a full moon low to today would be a new moon high, and old timers know it happened like that many many many times in the past: low to high or high to low.

    stock mkt boys are talking a 'bradley date' as a reason for the top, these bradleys also have worked in the metals.

    silver technicians been waiting for the 16.64 test, the former low that it lost.

    gold stocks HUI XAU weak with XAU rejecting this week high and HUI not even gettn there.

    definitely an 'op-ex whipsaw day' across many mkts including Ags. SLV GLD have options.

    everybody workin' for the weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  5. I never make a decision on op-ex day. Just one of my rules. Too much craziness.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mark will save us all :-)

    Peter makes the most sense on this blog so I tend to read his posts.

    There will be consequences for all the debt and I am afraid that the rise of the right wing will be one. Who will be the next dictator in Europe I wonder!

    All the world politicians have lost the plot and we can all look back in history to see what comes next. A good study of Roman history is always an eye opener.

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  7. 29,631 Dec14 corn traded in the final 60 seconds, down a 7 cent elevator shaft!

    poor closes in corn-wheat but jan beans go green for the week and above the 20-week(100-dma).

    moo-moo's must have been supported by cold weather next week and people gonna pay up for holidays meals no matter what!

    buh buh Bonds again ZB into 142-00 round number. were german bunds down to .77 :)

    all right better take at least 24hrs straight off no computer no work!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. As they say "history repeats itself; the first time as tragedy, and the second time as farce". We shall all stay tuned and see, right?

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  9. It seems notable to some degree, albeit miniscule now, that the DXY is above 88 and holding while the EURUSD is below 1.24 barely and they might end up closing there.

    Realizing those numbers could reverse in an instant it'll be interesting to see if EUR 1.24 remains the floor of resistance that it's been lately. Given today's ECB announcement it seems 1.20 will replace 1.24 as resistance going forward.
    1.24 has been sticky for a reason...one I'm not sure why so at this point.

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  10. I am not so sure it is "meddlers" directly that have destroyed it.

    I think it is an indirect consequence that has PUT SO MUCH FREAKING emphasis on computerized algorithmic trading software, whereby everyone has to be the first to sift through a piece of news to gain a nanosecond advantage on where the market is going. Then, all the other computers, also sifting the news, detect specific signatures in changes on volume - and so then you have what looks like absurd herd following of computer algos. Couple this with computers who fight wars with each other - and you have one F'd up market.

    This all came about due to technology, rule changes that allowed it, and an absurd obsession with Fed policy and all news/language associated with it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As well as greed combined with leverage

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    2. Did you see that Hedge Fund put on a GDX options trade that could turn $4.5 Million into $19 million, but also risked as much as $50 million. LOL ......yea, if I were a multi-millionaire, that is exactly what I would want them to do with my funds.

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  11. The central banks are just passing the monetary stimulus baton around now taking turns at propping up the stock markets of the world.

    The US central bank propped up the worlds stock markets for years with their monetary stimulus.

    Its now other countries turn to prop world markets until its the US central banks turn again.

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  12. lol thanks for the link. I think I stopped trading at the right time of the year :)
    I don't want to sound like the guy in the cage when I eat with my kids :)

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  13. The man in the cage is Charlton Heston. What a fine actor he was.

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    Replies
    1. Loved this movie when it came out...
      "The Omega Man"
      http://youtu.be/NUkU18MrBzU

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  14. Central banks are propping up the world. There is no exit from it.

    Central banks are just hiding the recessions that want to happen.

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  15. EURAUD down 300 pips today. I admit that the more CBs doing intervention the more volatility the markets are and I love it as a day trader. Dan said investors withdrawing from exchanges and going to OTCs whereas there are a bunch computer left fighting each other for bucks. I was once worried my futures as day trader but Dan enlightens me about this job prosperity.Thanks

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  16. thanks Dan - great clip that says it all... Market looks like a rollercoaster ride today.

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  17. Not sure what all the fuss is about today, and I'm not being facetious. It's expiration day, and that can be a bit odd, but the CB "action" is just more of the same.

    I don't think this represent any kind of sea change at all, and certainly isn't the start of some bull trend in the PMs. I'm honestly at a loss why Klendathu is in such a tizzy--TF seems to have actually soiled himself...

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    Replies
    1. You may have a point. Are we over reacting to the price movements like someone would overreact to today's weather? You often hear folks say"The weather is so much hotter than ever before" or "I have never seen such stormy weather before". When in reality there is absolutely nothing abnormal going on.

      Has anyone determined if the day to day volatility in gold is worse now than in years past. Is it worse than it was a decade ago? Or what about the intra-day standard deviation?

      It just seems like with the advent of so much emphasis on computer based trading, commodities have become schizophrenic to fundamental drivers and news related events.

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    2. Look at what the total volume of share traded on the NYSE looks like post 2002. It is all over the place.

      http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=total%20volume%20New%20York%20Stock%20Exchange&qs=n&form=QBIR&pq=total%20volume%20new%20york%20stock%20exchange&sc=0-16&sp=-1&sk=#view=detail&id=9C85BE0C0FFE767610E2E72DD23FC44EA9745627&selectedIndex=0

      Delete

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