"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Friday, November 7, 2014

GLD to Gold - We have a Problem!

Once again we have another one of those proverbial flies in the ointment when it comes to one of these frequent rallies we have seen in gold during the ongoing bear market of the last two+ years. We get a great rally and a lot of powerful chart action over at the Comex only to wait upon the reported holdings update from GLD and then find disappointment.

Instead of a nice climb in the holdings, what did we get instead? _ a fall of some 5.7 tons! Quite honestly, that came as a very big surprise to me. Given the action in the mining shares, I had expected to see some increase in the holdings. 'Twas not to be apparently.

This confirms my concerns about the rally - namely that while it was indeed powerful, it was due primarily to short covering and not so much due to an abundance of new buying. It is obvious that some used the rally in gold to close out some longs in the GLD.

Here is the chart. Gold holdings are now DOWN 71.07 tons from the first of the year ( and going in the wrong direction) while reaching back to levels last seen in late September 2008.

I am going to keep a very close eye on this next week and can only hope that we get some regular numbers reported daily from the ETF. Those of you who tend to follow that thing as I do know that we can sometimes go days without any fresh numbers coming our way.


  1. Dan, there are a few other possible explanations:

    1) GLD holdings do not correspond directly to that day's activity: ie, this may be redemptions cleaning up market maker positions from the big decline we saw in the few days before.

    2) If one believes that gold is massively manipulated when it rallies like it does today (although no goldbugs would possibly believe that), then the redemptions make perfect sense: COMEX futures are manipulated higher (by the Chinese Cartel, obviously), above their fair value. Authorized Participants take advantage of this by shorting GC futures (and London Spot) and buying GLD. Then they redeem GLD. Voila - it's simply explained by the upward manipulation.

    3) the explanation that you will read from every charlatan: THERE IS A MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF PHYSICAL GOLD AND GLD IS BEING DRAINED TO MEET THE DEMAND. I think that's a ludicrous conclusion based on today's price action, but I do think that it would be unusual to see continued redemptions coinciding with strength in the gold price.


    1. KId;

      Always good posts from you... excellent points ... thanks!

      We'll keep a close eye on that GLD holdings... I have noticed that it has indeed done with previously on gold rallies during the current bear market. The chart action is bullish but I want to see some confirmation. We are in an era where we get lots of head fakes in markets, both up and down anymore so one needs to be a bit on the cautious side nowadays.

    2. Silver production has increased 200 million oz a year
      over 2003 numbers. It is overproduced. Silver has
      been the worst investment one could make over
      the last 150 years.

      Gold has also been a bad investment compared to
      real estate and stocks.

      The mint runs out of coins almost every year towards
      year end. Means nothing that blanks ran out.

      But, gold has a unique role now. It is the only thing that is
      real money. Silver is no longer money, it is an industrial
      commodity. In a complete system breakdown of all fiat,
      silver could become near worthless.

      Silver is mined as a by product of copper, lead, zinc etc.
      It must be extracted even if it was worthless. The actual
      cost therefore is about $3.50 to extract and fabricate,
      because it must be taken out as an impurity.

      The $11.00 cost to mine silver is actually an allocated number.
      It is not real. Only primary miners have real numbers.

      75% of silver comes as byproduct. $3.50 applies as real cost
      to make.

    3. Mike would you kindly post a link to the source of the information you posted above about the costs of mining byproduct silver. I find your information hard to believe. Thank you in advance.

    4. Silver Institute, Mining.org. I use several sources.

      kitco within the last two weeks printed an article how
      a new giant copper machine extracts the platinum free
      of charge as byproduct. Go to their site.

      It only costs money to refine it.

      I am a gold bug at this time. Have not been in past.
      While the numbers on silver stink, the numbers on
      gold are sensational. I just started a major cost avg down to $800.

      Only gold is money, silver is not anymore.

      It will not be real estate that topples the system next time.

      I believe it will be leveraged futures and their derivatives
      on gold that will break the system. Gold trades more than
      the S&P 500 everyday. It is leveraged 66 to one at least.

      The bullion banks and GLD and others will run short by
      Dec of 2015. GLD will go below 400 tonnes by then
      even if the price stays flat.

      People are selling paper futures and buying physical. The gold
      going to China is actually bought by Chinese citizens, at least 80%.
      Their central bank buys the other 20% and keeps Chinese mining

      In 1933 gold was nationalized. Americans has $20, $10, $5,
      gold pieces in their pocket. Now days it will do no good
      to nationalize American gold. Americans don't buy gold.

      The gold that went to Fort Knox was about 90% bricks
      from American pocket change.

      I recommend 80% real estate, houses in decent areas and 20% gold. Keep next to nothing in the bank and if you can exit
      401k's that would help.

      Stay away from all computer assets such as stocks and
      commodities. Stocks are not guaranteed by FDIC as you suspect.
      This is another incredible scam.

    5. What happened in 1933 ? Didn't turn in your gold ?
      10 years in Fed prison. Gov agents had to be there when you
      opened your safe deposit box at the bank. They went into coin stores
      and took the gold hidden in the back in safes.

      Buy American gold Buffaloes in mint shrink wrap.
      They are 24kt and .999. They can be melted into
      jewelry without the trace elements contained in gold

      Keep your cash and gold in your house. Buy a smaller
      safe and put weights in the bottom to make it so heavy
      no thief can move it.

      Look at Argentina, not Weimar Germany and see what happens.
      A tiny gold coin in Argentina keep a large family alive for a month.

      20 year storage food for 4 months is good. Dehumidifier
      to make water. Clorox to purify dirty water.

      If you have gold and these few things you will never need to worry.

      Silver collapsed in May 2011 at the same time as the CRB
      commodities index. Gold only several months later.

      Gold and silver are apples and oranges. They have no relationship to each other, even tho they have an 80% correlation.

      Silver over the last 40 years has bottomed when the gold silver ratio hit 82 to 1. At $1040 gold, silver would be $12.68.

    6. Each day (on Comex alone) around 500,000 contracts are traded, there being 100 oz per contract, with each ounce valued around $1,200. So there is around $60 billion of gold traded per day or around $15 trillion per year. I do not have the figures for all the other markets (London, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc), but when you add it all up, it should be obvious that the global gold market is big enough to influence (and perhaps dominate) any other market on planet earth.

    7. So if all of those contracts stood for delivery they would be delivered? That's not gold being traded, those are promises with little gold behind them. Watch the GOFO rates and ask why the backwardation? Thought that shouldn't happen in a liquid market.

  2. Dan, I wanted to again thank you for all your hard work you put into maintaining your blog. There is so much great information and we all appreciate you taking your time both during your working hours and non-working hours to share your knowledge, expertise, and wisdom. Unfortunately, I haven't really had an opportunity to do much trading (yet), because I'm trying to get my account built up enough first in order to make it even worth while. I only have $2,000 in it at the moment. I'm anxious to try putting some of my knowledge I've gleamed from here to work. I am somewhat experienced at trading as I was trading and purchasing silver from $15 (where it is today unfortunately) up until around $40. Back then I had around $20K to trade with, but since then that money had to be directed elsewhere due to difficult times. I'm going to make a donation, though it's nothing substantial, but when I start trading again and if I'm able to make a good profit through knowledge or info I've gained from here, rest assured that donation button will be pressed. I sure hope others will do the same. I notice that some mention how they've already made some money based on info from you, so I hope they are donating accordingly. The last thing any of us want is for this site to go away. Because to tell you the truth, there is no other site I could learn from or trade based on other than yours. I'm sure many others that frequent here would agree with me. I hope you have a great weekend!

    1. Gilliom;

      thank you very much for your kind words. It is such a welcome relief to read a sound post from a sincere individual compared to some of the nonsense that I have to put up with from gold cult members.

  3. Yesterday was mostly neutral and trending slowly down by close but miners were moving up strongly. Then bullion jumps big today.

    How is the mkt so smart? And what a coincidence it happens to be NFP day which hardly justified a $30+ move.

    Then there was that move close to mid October were all the sudden miners broke away from gold and followed the general mkts up ask ETF's like dust got crushed.

    We know this is all computer traded and seems counter intuative to pick pockets putting people on the wrong side of the mkt.

    So my question is what chance does the common trader have with this?

    Who the heck knows what the next franken stein algorithem will have up its sleeve.

  4. “It’s not a bear market (in terms of demand). As I’ve said, the demand for gold and silver has exploded. For example, yesterday we had the U.S. Mint announce the suspension of sales of the silver eagles. They announced the suspension of it because they don’t have enough supply to meet the demand -- they can’t get enough silver to make the coins.

    The same thing has happened in Canada. The (Royal) Canadian Mint is now rationing the supply of silver maple leafs because the demand exceeds their ability to meet the market. So the demand for (physical) gold and silver is not in bear territory. It’s one of the greatest bull markets of all-time. How can there be a bear market when you can’t even buy the coins?

    It’s impossible for any economist to reconcile a situation in which the demand exceeds the supply -- and the price is falling? That can only be done because the price is established in a fake, phony paper market where you can control the supply by printing contracts. It’s a way for the central banks to control the value of the fiat money by (artificially) driving down the gold price.

    There is no other market in which something real is priced in a fake paper market. So what you see happening now is all the people who said, ‘I’ve got to protect myself. They are printing money, there’s going to be inflation, I’m going to buy gold and silver.’ They didn’t understand how the government could rig the price of gold and drive it down in the face of massive money and debt creation.

    So they made a bet that was rational and they didn’t understand the desperate nature and corruption in the system. And now that the government has consistently driven the gold price down from $1,900 to $1,100, they are demoralized -- they’ve lost faith. They say, “Oh, only if I’d been in the stock market. Why did I buy this? I’ve got to get out.’ And now they (some gold and silver investors) are selling their coins. They are selling their coins at a time when their is a shortage of coins.

    The U.S. Mint has stopped selling them because it can’t get the bullion to produce them, and the Canadian Mint is on the verge of having to do that. Well, that’s not the time you want to sell. The indication there is that the government has pushed this so far that there is a massive supply problem.

    And what this policy has done is subsidized all the purchases of gold and silver in India, China, and Russia. They’ve been able to buy at this rigged low price. It’s like a subsidy. This (suppression) policy, the people responsible for this should be arrested and put on trial. This is a criminal policy.

    And any economist should understand you can’t possibly have a bear market when the demand for bullion is exploding, the supply is constrained -- and the price is falling? That’s the opposite of supply and demand. And so it has to be a rigged price. Rigged prices are illegal, even if the authorities are behind it.”

    Spot on Dr Roberts!

    1. Got it Right;

      the notion that the "government has driven the price of gold down from $1900 to $1100 is an insult to those of us who understand markets. Please do not come to my site and pollute it with that kind of swill.

      As far as "doctor" Roberts goes, he is someone for whom I have no respect whatsoever as a market analyst or someone who has the least idea of how futures markets work.

      Do I make myself clear enough or will you continue to insist on filling my posting section with the gold price suppression scheme nonsense?

      For your information - you act as if somehow demand exceeds supply. based on what? the fact that the mint sold out of silver coins? big deal.... what percentage of total silver demand is coins?

      stop with the gold cult propaganda - it is not welcome here and I will not tolerate it for long. I have run out of patience with the gold cult members so do not press your luck here.

    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    3. Hello Poppet

      i sincerely hope that Dan doesnt moderate your comments this time, because I - and I suspect several others - woukd take great delight in exposing and eviscerating the banality and impotent rage expressed in your idle rants

      Let's start with "vengeance" - a curious choice of phrase. Have you read Dan's recent commentary on the mini-rallyette yesterday? Why on earth would you think either that Dan would need "revenge" for that, or that he would seek to extract it by writing what he did? I sense you may perhaps be "talking your own book" with that particular remark, and in your case both the petulant bitterness and the sense of frustrated entitlement is quite evident

      Next football. I do not "know" football - in fact, as a European I suspect you Yanks dont either because you don't even play it primarily with your feet. I hope you can infer from this that I am certainly NOT. a fan of what you refer to as football, even though I don't know it and don't want to either. Your remark is therefore just gas, isnt it - vapid, noxious and inflammatory

      Are you SERIOUSLY suggesting that Dan uses only GLD in his analysis of the price performance of Gold? You're not, are you - you're just having a little rant because he deleted your previous intemperate Comnents. Perhaps if you spent your time READING this website rather than ceaselessly bickering about it, you might not make such crass mistakes (and might even perhaps learn something)

      A one-sided sideshow? Reall? I take issue with Dan all the time, and he hasnt blocked my Comments yet. Similarly, even though I almost always disagree heartily with e.g. Barney and Peter, their (to my mind) daft Comments are both tolerated and indeed encouraged. Such is the nature if reasoned debate and free speech

      But what of your admonition to non traders"? Are you not telling them that there is nothing here for them, and trying to shiftvtheir attention away from this blog rather than encouraging them to form their own opinion? As "non traders" they would surely not be surprised or offended if they found views and opinions which did not necessarily align with their own, you know, what with this being Trader¤Dan's website and all. Maybe, as non Traders, tyey came here looking for an alternative perspevtive? - who appointed you to warn them off before they had a chance ti form their own opinion?

      The volume of posts is in fact quite robust, but probably reflects tge awkward fact that people jn the USA are at present still asleep on a dark weekend before a public holiday. I, too tend to do things in the real world at weekends - I am writing this from the Departures Lounge in Terminal 2 of London Heathrow airport - its called "a life", and you urgently need to get one

      There is nothing more to say about Sprott - the guy has been outed as a scamster, and his credibility is shot to ribbons. The crowd is still here, but rather than shouting our mouths off when we have nothing to say, are waiting until next week to see what happens nect (as Dan has quite eloquently explained). You should try it some time - shutting up until you have something meaningful to say, otherwise you end up looking like a blabbermouth idiot. (Mission Accomplished)

      Despicable? Don't be too harsh on yourself; why not settle for "a bit sad" and "an attention-seeking Troll"?

    4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    5. temper! temper!, Poppet

      far from "namecalling" and "bashing sites", Dan's comnents are almost entirely facts-based. I think you already knew that, didn't you, really .....

      you, in contrast, appear to have nothing to add to the discussion other than to needle Dan and try to goad people into responding to your provocative comments - whether this is simple narcissism or some more obstuse form if 'Munchhausen's Syndrome By Trolling'" I really couldnt say, but as attention-seeking goes, its pretty infantile

      Unless I missed sonething, Dan was pretty clear in his views of what caused Friday's mini-rally: if only you didnt have tge "Transmit" button taped down, you might have been able to pick that up. Or maybe that's not really what your bitchy comments are about after all

  5. Anyone that looks at this realistically knows we are being sold a lie.

    The big three currencies are all bankrupt and can never stand the light of day of higher normalized interest rates without failing. Its a one way trip now, there is no interest rate normalization coming. Its Japan here too now.

    The herd still remains clueless as they seem unable to do basic math or just want to believe in the economic recovery story the monetary masters are trying to sell them,

    so the game goes on and on, sell precious metals and keep buying fiat currencies as they run up never ending debt against these currencies and print themselves into oblivion.

  6. Time will tell (beginning Monday)

    frankly, I don't buy it (the rally-ette or the metal) - not yet

    and Dan - let Got it Right rant, because anyone reading this blog knows he didn't

    and Barney - go on, say "QE" - I double-dare you

    1. I don't buy the gold rally either Ophelia, and no I refuse to say that word you mention above for today anyway.

      I think one can see it is all that is left until the central banks prove they can stop it.

  7. Interesting statement about QE, gold, stocks, debt.

    « What is QE ? (by Chris D. in Gold Eagle) QE is not printing.


    Never has been. QE’s main beneficiaries are a group of 22 primary dealers, which borrow direct from the FED at essentially interest free rate to use for buying Treasuries. If the Treasury market was allowed to fail all payments from the government would have to stop. The bankers know that, thus the banks who make money from money, sell to the FED what they can’t sell at the private market to the FED at the original cost of purchase and get paid with low interest loans to buy Treasury debt with. It’s basically a swap that has to be settled at a future date. Right now almost all banks who take in individual savings deposits sent those deposits to the FED for Treasury securities that now get used as collateral in our fractional loan making system. Treasuries are now used for what individual savings at one time were used for. In this way everything we the people own and have a mortgage on is now also collateral for our Treasury debt. About 60% of the QE money has been channeled into mortgage backed securities.


    All this talk about QE inflation is wrong. QE debt creation is not money printing. An IOU is not cash money. The reason QE benefits the rich is because the rich make money from money, and the poor who don’t have any money, have no way of making money from money. Thus the growing disparity in income that is chocking our ability to advance. Ahead of us is what in my mind is called stagflation. Everything fiat will become worth more as everything physical is worth less. Gold is showing that. Gold will go much lower in the years ahead, for it is tied to the fiat script called US$’s.


    QE is essentially an increase in the supply of credit to buy debt with. The FED is doing what most corporations are doing. Basically it is using credit to buy debt and store it off balance sheet. Lets use IBM as an example. They borrowed a lot of credit and used the credit to buy their shares to increase the earnings per share. Bank debt is not accounted for in the EPS. CHK is another example of that. They had to sell their almost best to SWN. The bullshit accounting Enron used is alive and well. The stock market is up because credit is being leveraged. 3/4 of the people in the USA don’t own stocks, thus can’t benefit from it. Truth be told they don’t trust the stock market ponzi scheme. You can only shaft people so many times and then they stay away for good. The fact is, the cash money stock in the USA is falling. People are using credit cards to buy a subway sandwich. For QE to be inflationary, the cash money stock has to increase not decrease. The only reason the stock market is high is because there is a lot of debt supporting it. Take that away and it will crash just like it did in 1929. And that is ahead of us. "

    1. The ZH piece about Greenspan misses the mark. The goldtards are now all slapping themselves on the back now that Al has been making noise about the premier currency being gold. At the very end the infamous exchange between Ron and Ben is presented to reinforce goldbug dogma that gold is money.


      But I have a different perspective on this exchange. I'm with Ben. Gold is not money. Not anymore. We're not going to be walking around conducting commerce with hard money. Nor are we going to be saving in gold after the transition. Both are stupid fantasies of the goldtards. Ben absolutely nailed it. The reason why gold is on central bank balance sheets is indeed TRADITION! For what happens every time the global monetary system needs to be realigned? Gold traditionally revalued. That's the coming discontinuity on the horizon very likely before 2020.

  8. Hi all,

    Sory for the blah blah yesterday (I mean the more than usual blah blah:)), I was very tired.

    I'd like to share with you this chart, to show once more how T.A can help to trade for those who say T.A is useless in a manipulated market.
    I traced the middle red line before we hit and bounced 1130 yesterday, because :
    - it is a parallel to the downwards main channel traced long ago.
    - it surprisignly joined a few tops and bottoms already.
    i.e it seemed relevant to follow this line, and relevant it was indeed.


    Thanks to that little line, I managed to escape 1/3 of gold short position (and 50% silver because I thought well, silver and gold are also correlated in a way) at the very lows when I saw on fast time units that 1.31 was hit and gold was starting to bounce right there.

    A remark about Bollinger Bands now : gold hit 1130, which is also the lower bollinger band of the monthly time unit, going upwards! Usually, the slower the time unit, the stronger the support/resistance (speaking under Dan's control about this as usual) versus faster ones.
    Also, gold prices were below and outside the lower bollinger band of the weekly time unit, yet this one is heading down and now at 1160.
    Add to that the fact that on a weekly basis, MACD didn't cross its signal (bearish), and I think that the trend is still Bearish, but gold bounced on a short term support, allowing the market to breath and wait for the lower bollinger band weekly time unit to come lower.

    Still, this time on the daily time unit, we have a nice hammer here (japanese candlesticks), the CDUR is sending me an alert, reversing up from its lowest zone, and MACD is starting to head upwards. In terms of Cycles, it means that on the daily time unit, the "potential" for a continuation of the downtrend may be consumed for a little while, and we have an opportunity for a few days up.
    I have no idea if we can break through 1180 or not.
    But I have to take into account the fact that we can, and gold prices may head towards 1220. That's why I put a stop loss the other day for another 1/3 of my short position at 1170. I hate seeing a profit line becoming a loss.

    Given the picture of the bollinger bands weekly and other signal on that time unit, I would be very suprised if gold managed now to stop the long term trend downwards by breaking above the red resistance now at 1250.

    My "likely" scenario is that we are going to manage to break through 1180, giving back some hope to bulls once more (because of the cycle on the daily time unit), then quickly bump in a resistance ahead, like the ema15 weekly time unit at 1230, and reverse down once more.
    This is my "likely" scenario, which by no means says I'm certain this will happen.
    I have no idea what will happen, and I'm having serious trouble to manage my positions effectively since I have so little time left now during my working days to monitor prices once in a while.
    Hope this was useful,
    Wishing you all a nice weekend,

    1. P.S : I am not an expert of intermarket analysis, but I'd be curious to know if Dan agrees on that point. To me, SP500 may be about to stall in the 2040 area, just above head. If this is confirmed, this might be the real last top of the SP500, based on a simple basic theory : the "tendance en ligne" we could see in the 2 week time unit is broken now. The theory says that when it is broken down, through the support of the upwards channel, then a last ultimate high occurs. Well, that's exactly what happened til now. Ultimate means that then will start a strong real correction on this market.

      We saw that when SP500 heads down, some money seems to seek protection towards gold. So I don't know if, suppose SP and Dow start correcting badly downwards, gold will benefit from it or not at all like in 2008 and plunge downwards because of margin calls (assets must be sold to find the cash to compensate vs the losses on the stock market).
      Conclusion : I don't really know how gold would react to a serious correction on SP500 and US indices, but this correction may happen soon based on what I'm following. Unless we manage to break through and close above 2050, in which case SP500 could head towards near 2200.

    2. Hubert. I'm seeing the same re. S&P and indexes. If it's going to breakdown it's ripe. My crystal ball was hoping for meltup in indexes with final flush in PMS and then swing long PMS. USD is key to all of this. If we head to 90 then oil gold etc will flush. I don't believe USD has turned south yet

  9. Hi Dan,

    The pattern before the recent breakdown below long term support at 1180 was GLD bleeding tonnage on an accelerated basis. This week's redemptions were also fast and furious. This does not bode well that we have bottomed. I want to swing long GDX but IMHO we are not there yet and preserving capital is more important to me than timing the perfect bottom. If this was the bottom then there is plenty of upside to reenter safer after confirmation.

  10. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    1. Hello, Poppet

      my oh my, these "non traders" must be pretty stupid if they need you to point out that Trader Dan's website might reflect a point of you which they are not instinctively aligned with

      The problem is that by the time they discover your erudite advice, they have almost certainly read notbjust Dan's article, but most of the Comments too, and its probably too late to save them from the angst and frustration which lies in wait for them, poor fools

      Rather than posting such lame warnings way fown on Dan's site, would in not perhaps not be more effective to write your sage words on other websites, you know, to 'head em off at the pass" and stop these poor innocents from ever straying into the wilderness that is this forum? I am sure that all of us here would welcome that move, and at least in your new home you'd be amongst like-minded friends?

      I am not a Gold cult member, even though I still own more metal than you could comfortably carry; I disagree with all sorts of people on here - especially you - but I havent been banned yet. I think its only spambots and habitual trolls who find their Comnents deleted on here - and clearly, you arent selling anything

    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    3. yes, I suppose so - if you need my permission, then, yes, "that's ok"

      why not go outside for a while and see if you can find some other children to play with?

  11. I'm looking for a trade paper p. As long as GLD sheds tonnage is a negative. Period. I don't care about physical or bugs or conspiracies. WHEN the USD weakens and GLD starts adding tons then I'm in with two feet not just my pinky toes

  12. Gold doesn't always need a weak USD to advance.

    1. Absolutely. You are right but for me to make a large trade betting on a bottom then I want to see USD going the other way. It will be a much safer bet. I'll sacrifice some cap gains waiting for USD.

  13. In Dan own words
    gold got a bid yesterday because of russian tanks in Ukarine.

    1. I must have missed that statement - please could you quote it verbatim for the benefit of me and the other non-Traders readung this wicked wicked website?

      No, I thought perhaps not. Never mind - keep goading and niggling away. If that's what it takes to introduce some meaning into you barren life, then who are we to duscourage you?

    2. Ophelia, do not let paper puppet get to you; he is just another shoe clerk looking to lose. Have a good weekend and always remember that in the short term, mkts do not have to make sense.

    3. hi steve

      at Heathrow waiting for a flight - just a bit bored, so thought I'd wade in

      have a large/long/inveterate weekend

    4. Ophelia, I wonder if you could try to be a little less arrogant, sarcastic, boastful, condescending, and judgemental.Your posts are replete with insults against anyone who has a view contrary to your own, but have little substance. I know I am doing the same right now but someone had to take you to task. Reading your views would then be much more tolerable. I quote from one of your masterpieces as a sample of your erudition:

      "If that's what it takes to introduce some meaning into you barren life, then who are we to duscourage you?"

    5. @ Peter - see any hyper-inflation lately?

    6. thats a valid challenge, Petet, but unfortunately I do not have the time to respond to you in detail

      do you perhaps have a link to Dan's alkeged statement about Ukranian tanks, or are you simply looking for an argument?

    7. Eric, HI is not inflation. As long as there as there is a bond market there will be no hyperinflation. Check out the wiki entry for Weimar and look at the very end in 1923. That's when MZM was bigger than the other monetary aggs. That's when the monetary aggregate structure inverted when nobody wanted to be a creditor, e.g., deposit money in a bank.

    8. Yes, Eric, only coming out of you.

    9. Here's a video that may help explain what's really going on. Macroprudential policy, aka Financial Repression with negative real interest rates and how gold capping is necessary.


    10. Can you believe they put this in front of a IRS building?


      Now tell me who is really calling the shots?l

  14. What is holding the gold price up
    Simple question?
    I don't need pages and pages of nonsense either.

    1. a combination of initial reaction to NFP, the weekend after a violent downtrend, and some slight concern about Ukraine

      it may not last

      now the, that wasnt pages & pages, so what do you need- maybe I can get you a prescription

  15. I don't understand why you are a holder of gold at this present time if you can buy it at a lower price ??

    1. thats a bit if a silly question, isnt it

      i cant buy it at a lower price, because I already own it. Do you understand that? I dont have to buy it, because I already own it

      i could buy MORE at a lower price, but I dont want to, because I am quite happy with the amount I hold right now

      IF the price goes down significantly further, I may oppotunistically buy more, just as if the price went up very, very significantly, I might be tempted to sell some

      but right here, right now, on Planet Earth, I dont't have to buy what I already own, and I don't want any more Gold at the current level, in the currently uncertain market environment

      what don't you get about that?

    2. Nice try.
      Your answer does not add up to your views or posts.

    3. Paper, it may mean that Ophelia Balls bought gold way up, "more than you can comfortably carry", lured in by guileful websites, and that she now bitterly resents that fact. But she keeps a brave face on it and has now aligned herself with what she thinks are the like-minded deadly enemies of gold, many of whom are in the same boat, having abandoned the cause of evil, and joined the cause of the righteous. The truth also may just lie in the fact that by buying gold at the top she has goofed badly.

    4. Peter dykes;

      May I suggest you leave the psycho-analysis of Ophelia to some professional shrink and stop it.

      Why cannot some people accept the fact that most of us here have bought gold in the past, could possibly still own it, maybe have bought some more recently, all for insurance purposes or diversification of a portfolio and leave it at that?

      Who cares if someone bought gold at $1500, or at $1400 or at $1300 or at $1200 since 2012? If they bought physical gold most are not happy to see it go lower IF THEY WERE LOOKING FOR A SPECULATIVE TRADE. If however they bought it for insurance, most could care less what the current price is unless they did what many in the gold cult did and that was put almost the entirety of their life savings into it and more specifically (and worse) into the gold mining industry in the form of shares.

      I read a lot of posts here and I cannot recall any of my regular posters bemoaning the fact that the cost of physical gold is lower. Now I have seen a lot of posters bemoan the fact that they were bamboozled by the priests and false prophets of the cult and were waiting for the "moon shot" that was right around the corner and thus lost the majority of their life savings, something which they will probably never recover in their lifetime unless they are quite young.

      Also, can you please specifically point in, in detail, whom it is here at this site are "deadly enemies of gold"? Does pointing out the charlatans like Sprott, Macquire, et.c make one a "deadly enemy of gold" or rather does it make one an enemy of lies, deceit, falsehood, hubris, arrogance and a lack of shame among far too many in the precious metals world instead?

      How do you know she might have bought gold at the top? Answer - you do not and to announce in front of the whole world that she did is rather presumptuous on your part. I suggest you apologize and try to remain civil.

      I for one can fully understand how the tone of her posts might take on some evident disdain towards some of the gold cult members. I too am nauseated by them.

      They love their yellow metal god and cannot bear for someone to objectively read a chart and speak against its prospects when that charts calls for it. So they take every opportunity, like little children, to say "NA, NA, NA-NA, NA' every time it rallies as if somehow that is evidence that those who have been bearish when gold failed at $1800 some years ago, and especially at $1520 have somehow been wrong the entire time about its prospects.

      I told Mr. Poppet, whom I view with disdain, and whom I have warned that I have had enough of his snide and childish remarks, that his posts will be deleted. If you want to stoop to his level then the same will go for you. I suggest you avoid that.

      The only reason his recent posts have been permitted to remain is because the more he writes, the more those who are of an objective and open mind, the more he makes a fool out of himself. That being said, my already overstretched patience with him, is exhausted once more.

    5. Dan, the truth is that there are too many ad hominems and snide remarks on this site, whether pro or con gold. Unfortunately, this style of writing which Ophelia uses in almost every post engenders more of the same from other quarters, including myself, as a counter measure. Maybe it is time to put a moratorium on all ad hominems, whether you are a goldbug or an anti gold bug.

      Actually, I largely agree with your views, and see blind belief in gold as an investment as ridiculous. It is just an investment. But it excites such passions. Always has and always will. My own view is that even goldbugs need to be treated with respect, or any other views for example, and should have their say without a barrage of insults being hurled at them.

      I think open expression should be tolerated. That's just me, a libertarian sort of guy. Far be it for me to tell you how to run your website, and you must do exactly as you see fit. Overall this is a good website as it offers alternative views, and some writers are devoid of the incessant emotive gangbanging that others cannot stop using. So much so that it makes me suspect those others have been burnt, but have no one but themselves to blame, and carp on endlessly about other websites; but worse, emotively attack those who do not agree with them

      You yourself were directly involved in this same type of promotion which you condemn in others, but tended to be more modertate. I expect you felt prevailed on to give the 'right' support, and you eventually found this nauseating, there was a big bust up, and you left. That was the right and proper thing to do, and the fact that you are an honorable man with integrity comes out clearly. But 'hold your hosses' as they say in the Westerns, don't go overboard, live and let live, cool it, be tolerant, etc.

      Of course, if all this really enrages you then you can tell me this is your website, you can run it as you want, and that I can jump in a lake. That would be a pity because it completely undermines the principle of freedom of expression.


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    7. Peter;

      Let me give you a bit of perspective.
      Your pal, Mr. Puppet, whom I have allowed out of my mere good pleasure, to put up a few posts instead of having them promptly deleted, loves to come on this site and accuse me of "misleading people", of causing harm to people, or seeking some sort of revenge. Why is that? Because I have been pointing out for the last few years, when gold fell down below major chart support, that gold is in a BEAR MARKET. That is my crime somehow.

      Also, that I will call out the hucksters who have something gold related to sell for being the ones that are actually misleading people with one wild theory after another, why gold or silver prices were heading sharply higher any day now, someone makes me an enemy of gold in the minds of the perma gold bulls.

      I have been called a "paid disinformation shill", a defender of fiat currency, and stuff that cannot be printed here, for merely stating the obvious to any objective trader, that gold prices were going to move lower.

      My business is to profit from being on the right side of the market. That means being bullish when the charts call for it as I was prior to 2012 and being bearish when the charts call for it.

      I have stated publicly here that I own gold and that many if not al of the posters who are here do as well. Yet, according to the gold cult members, of which Mr. Puppet is a perfect example, we are somehow anti-gold and are hurting people. Quite frankly I am sick and tired of dealing with people of his ilk and warped minds.

      They cannot see how utterly vile they are by twisting and misrepresenting what I say. As far as I am concerned, Ophelia or anyone else on this site can castigate them as often as they please because they are contemptible people. Anyone who gets that riled up over a stupid piece of yellow metal has a serious problem. Gold is an asset in another investment class, Nothing more and nothing less.

      To spend one's life looking for never ending reasons for it to always rise is a sign of something that is not quite right. It shows a misplaced allegiance to an asset class that is counterproductive to any sound investment strategy, not to mention it is a piss-poor trading approach.

      AS I have stated many times, those who keep calling for sharply higher gold prices every day, day in, day out, are too emotionally attached to gold in order to be the least bit objective.

      If you want to defend the gold cult members, you should understand that you are not going to get any encouragement from me. I have had enough of them and especially of their priests and false prophets, whose every utterance is like gospel to their blinded followers. It is astonishing to me that many people could have followed the advice of these hucksters and have lost such a large percentage of their life's savings and yet keep coming back for more of the same. That is staggering to me. At some point, perhaps the truth will dawn on some of these folks that all they have done is to enrich those who misled them but promising them time after time how rich they were going to be when the system collapsed which is just anyday now.

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    9. Dan, I don't really understand why you are getting so het up. I agree with what you say, but I am suggesting you are more tolerant of all views. I am not defending anyone. To say that is to take a quantum leap, from my talking about freedom of expression, to my being a supporter of views I do not necessarily hold. That is a Straw Man argument. Maybe you misread what I said. My argument is ONLY about freedom of expression, and toleration of different views, which views of course can be argued against by reason.

    10. Puppet:

      I warned you - when you started to accuse me of misleading people, of having an agenda, of being too emotional, etc. you crossed the line... so goodbye.. as said before you are done here.

    11. Dan, I just want to repeat once more that I think your views are very valuable, and you are often right. You are a long-standing and successful trader, and have insights we followers may lack, especially with regard to timing. This is much appreciated, believe me. It is only when you go bananas over others expressing their views that we part company - at least I hope not for good.

    12. Peter;

      I have told you before - I have no tolerance or patience for those who have are permanently bullish gold all the time.

      Define "going bananas". that is rather vague. Does that include exposing charlatans and hucksters, those claiming to have a secret, esoteric knowledge of the inner workings of the gold market, like mr infamous whistleblower macquire for example?

      Most people who come here are civil. Those who keep citing the same worn out crap that the system is going to implode any day now and gold and silver are going to the moon anyday now are not welcome here. This is a serious site for serious individuals who love the markets and are trying to understand their movements in these difficult times in which we live.
      as such I will not let it degenerate into one of those places where the gold cult members can sing to each other and find a place to vent their theories.

      After all, it is my site and I will be the one who determines what I will allow and what I will not allow.

      that is why I cautioned you not to stoop to the level of Mr. Puppet and start accusing Ophelia of something of which you have no idea. If you want to make it right, simply shoot her post and acknowledge that you got caught up in the heat of the moment and crossed the line into false accusations and everything will be just fine.

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    14. Dan, I will say this, Ophelia Balls is a real character, no question about it, and has to be English.Takes one to know one. We are a nation of eccentrics, especially as we grow older. If she is offended, which I doubt, I apologize, but I suspect - but do not know for certain - it is all part and parcel of the repartee, which she enjoys so much. I take it she is a she, at risk of offending her yet again, because her name seems to be an oxymoron, and the two words may cancel themselves out.

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  16. http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/gold-fix-study-shows-signs-of-decade-of-bank-manipulation.html
    gold manipulation is out in the open

    Ever heard of LIBOR? 

    QE is open manipulation of interest rates.

    BOJ is the most active cb in controlling their yen.

    There are no free markets and denying manipulation is willful ignorance

    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    2. I didnt name call anyone. Facts are facts. A central bank by its mandate is a monopoly. And a monopoly controls its own interest. And that also means manipulation. But dan has a point dont argue with a trillion dollars you will not win.

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    4. oh dear, Poppet

      who do you think you are to hand out "warnings", You sound slightly bitter & twisted - why is that?

      and who are "they", by the way?

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    6. Paper puppett = blind beligerence.

    7. scwc1021;

      I have written about this so many times in the past I have lost count. To talk about hedge fund computers doing something in a market is NOT THE SAME as stating that moves lower in gold are caused by "evil gold cartel price suppressors at work".

      Also what takes place at the gold fix or LIBOR for that matter, have nothing to do with what takes place in the futures market and how computers react or initiate movements in price. Also, movements that might be generated in markets by actions taken by PRIVATE BANKS have no connection to claims that bullion banks are "knocking the price of gold down in the thin Asian trading conditions"

      Please go through this website and read the article I have written over the last few yeas and you will have it all there at your fingertips

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  18. Thank you, Dan, for your excellent post and outstanding website. I agree with you that Friday's action in the gold market was largely attributable to short covering, and had posted two days before that I saw this coming. The question is will it carry through, and I doubt it, but that is only a hunch. If it does carry through something else is at work, or as Kid Dynamite inferred "manipulation to the upside." This brings me to the topic of what is manipulation. The trouble is we all spend much time arguing and discussing in a most passionate and determined way, but we haven't even agreed on the meaning of the words we are using. Socrates pointed this out, and Plato demonstrated it in his own books as a student and exponent of Socrates' methods. You must agree on the meaning of the terms of the argument before you can even have a proper discussion, otherwise you are not talking about the same thing!

    So what is manipulation? Does it mean manipulation by the government directly? Or by the government using surrogates such as banks? Or by banks alone in a concerted and pre-arranged way? Or by hedge funds also acting in a pre-arranged way? Or by entities with insider knowledge? Or just by entities with massive funds that can move the markets at will? Only if we understand this and agree on how the manipulation is taking place can we use the word manipulation in a meaningful way. Personally, I don't know what the word means in this context, but just have a vague feeling that it is taking place, because I am not privy to such insider knowledge, and base my feeling on what I do understand full well, which is the innate corruptibility of human nature. To think that it is not taking place, and in light of all the other exposure of bank scandals, Libor rates manipulation, et al, would be to my mind very naive. So, why not in gold? I am sure such manipulation is not just a one way ticket DOWN, but UP as well. The name of the game is to make as much money as possible, and if the public are fooled and wrong- footed, so much the better. The immorality of it is just something they laugh about together in the pub.

  19. THE M WORD

    Also Dan, you have previously mentioned on occasion that there is manipulation, even by government, much in the same way that they manipulate currencies and even admit it, because gold is a currency. However, at this time, so you stated, manipulation is no longer necessary, at least by the government or its minion the Fed (a la Greenspan's recent remark about it NOT being independent and having to respond to the will of Congress) So at this time, government intervention is not occurring, and possibly they would even like gold to go up somewhat or the dollar to go down, which is tantamount to being the same thing. Maybe China is manipulating the market now through its agents the banks to acquire more gold. Maybe just the banks and the hedge funds acting in a concerted manner to make money. Who knows?

    If you have time I would appreciate your views on this matter. It is probably a very important topic, because if there is manipulation then it becomes a vital criteria, a fundamental of the fundamentals, in determining investment decisions in the precious metals.

  20. Paper
    You got it all wrong. There are no simple answers here. There is facts, data, and analysis along with some opinion based one those facts. This allows the reader (me) to make up his mind about what to do. Even the "tanks" comment was one of several factors cited as powering the bounce in gold Friday.

    If you want to hear and spout jingoistic chants is suggest you go some where more appropriate. I can give you several suggestions.

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    2. Paper
      When you first posted on this site I wondered what was your issue. And I still do. Just and angry gold bug? Why do you try to put your host down? I don't buy the "I trying to protect people from ecilnTrader Dan" statements.

      If you were visiting is someone's house this would not be acceptable conduct. All your accomplishing so far is to look silly and piss people off.

      What is your purpose?

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    4. So your a sick as the huckster peddling gold to the moon. JMHO.


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  21. The truth is, of course, that if there is manipulation, someone, and actually much more than someone, knows the truth, and therefore has insider information, which if they use to their advantage in investment is yet more manipulation. Oh, for a whistleblower, but someone much more credible than a second hand car salesman. With Greenspan's remarks on the Fed being beholden to Congress, that gold is money, and that the economy is facing a state of turmoil, could this whistleblower be him.Very naughty remarks for someone who was Chairman of the Fed for 19 years! Trouble is, when he was Chairman, why did he exacerbate the situation with his own loose policy, why didn't he tell the truth about the parlous state of affairs, why did he just act the cunning politician and go along with what he knew was wrong and what it would lead to? He was always the showman, and even gleefully told us recently how he invented FEDSPEAK, to befuddle his audience with a whole lot of meaningless nonsense, that sounded good but said nothing, had everyone hanging on his every word, moving markets hundreds of points on an utterance. My, how he must have laughed to be treated like a god. He said he had to do it in order not to influence markets! So this is government and this is how they run the economy, just jawboning to a lot of gullible sheep. Ayn Rand, his great hero, said that he was just a parvenu, an opportunist, not really to be trusted. We need to do better for a whistleblower.

  22. For the goldtards here's a special pearl of wisdom of how Giants really think
    At the 10 minute mark:


    "The wealthy live off interest income. They're smart. They don't eat up their capital." This is what the goldtards don't get. They point this chart all the time: https://paulbarsch.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/dollar-depreciation.jpg

    But they neglect to account for the interest earned. A real positive interest rate compensates for the currency's loss of PP.

  23. From the looks of it TFMR just underwent a radical format change and comments have been disabled or eliminated on the public side by all appearances.

    Not that it really matters at this point. At one time lonnnng ago the sites main appeal was the poster diversity and sheer amount of comment quantity that made the site a popular and unique destination.

    But with obviously decreasing commentary traffic from registered users on the site over the past year(s) or so this latest move has more or less extinguished any remaining conversation on there that was the primary source for it's energy and appeal at one time.

    What they've just done is circle the wagons a bit tighter....raise the fences a bit higher....and dimmed the lights on fresh conversation....while papering the windows of transparency that the site once sought in the beginning.

    In the end, a blog with a diminished poster base (now by design) that looks to hide or segregate the poster base they until recently used to tolerate and need, has basically cut off it's nose (poster comments) to spite it's face (survival) because they didn't realize or accept what the core problems were on there 2+ years ago.
    The problem, the entire time, was from within. The same problem that deemed it necessary to spy on their registered users private message system in an attempt to look for enemies of their collective kingdom.

    This latest move and reformat is symptomatic of a greater ailment they didn't or can't recognize until it was too late.
    They can hate the messenger(s) or the manner of the message but to deny or resent the accuracy of the message was a mistake long ago.
    The attempt to quiet or segregate any remaining posters from any type of critical poster mass was the equivelant of a wet blanket on a small tire fire.

    The experiment is over....caught up in a vortex of a negative feedback loop of diminshing returns...or posters. The reformatting has effectively sealed it's fate at the expense of many not soley measured in dollars but also in time.

    And what a waste of it, indeed.

    1. This is a big problem with the internet. It devolves into groups of confirmation bias. Just one circle jerk after another.

  24. If Gold is held as insurance what is it insuring against? I presume that it is insuring against failure of the value of fiat currency? If my presumption is correct what would cause this?

    If many posters here hold gold as insurance, what events - or concerns caused you to purchase this very specific form of insurance?

    1. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-ecb-noyer-idUSKBN0IR0ML20141107

      Gold is insurance against debt deflation. When the credit sponge is supersaturated and can hold no more debt. This has been the case since 2008. Look no further than the extraordinary measures that have been in place since '08 to keep this debt edifice from imploding.

      Check this out from Reuters. The best stuff always comes out Friday nights. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-ecb-noyer-idUSKBN0IR0ML20141107

      Do you see the problem now? Do you see the risks our central banker mandarins are trying to manage? Normalization of rates. Ha! Don't make me laugh. They are stuck in a debt trap. They can't raise rates without the market heading for the exit. They can't do austerity nor raise taxes. It's game over baby. When all hope is lost then we will have arrived at the end of the Yellow Brick Road where awaits an axe and a case marked : BREAK GLASS IN CASE OF DEFLATION. In that case are gold certificates at which the US Treasury values gold at 42 frickin bucks an ounce.


      Total - Treasury-Owned Gold 261,498,926 ounces....valued at $11,041,059,957.

      They can always get out by revaluing gold. It's like magic. That's why it's been recommended to always have 5-10% of your portfolio in gold for "just in case". But modern portfolio theory has drummed this out of baby boomer consciousness the last 30 years.

  25. I see it as a re-assurance of sorts in case of a volatile economic/banking disturbance (including loss of personal wealth) that also might include a prolonged inflationary or deflationary scenario or a major domestic or geo-political disturbance.

    Hopefully none of that ever happens. Just like folks who need earthquake, flood, volcano, car life etc. insurance.
    People pay for paper documented insurance that has no real value except peace of mind unless something bad happens and then there's a paper money benefit after.
    I have no revulsion to accepting paper money or electronic digital bank balance increases.

    At least gold is a recognized age old physical object that stores some type of value that's determined by whatever situation or environment the seller might find themself in that necessitated it's sale vs. whatever motivation or demand the buyer might have at that time.

    I believe in the necessity and value normal "paper" insurance might provide just in case but I hate paying for it just like everyone else does. Gold/silver is one leg in my overall asset portfolio.

    1. I think it is more than just insurance, and I think that most people who bought it thought at the time that it was more than insurance.That is just a term now in vogue to make buying it sound respectable, especially if you paid too much for it.Then it would be like saying that you took out medical insurance, but it was rather expensive, and you remain socially acceptable. In my own case I started buying gold in 1997, a little early, then systematically through the years until 2006, and again in 2009. Gold has therefore been a stunningly good investment for me, much better than the stock market: a lot more than insurance, one would have to say.

      I think, if truth be told, that many on this site bought because they believed something was, and still is, fundamentally wrong with the whole economic system. Now, they don't want to look foolish because gold has gone down, so they call it insurance. Needless to say, if gold moves up substantially again, it will once again be called an excellent investment.

    2. Ward, what caused the crisis in 2008? It has not been fixed, and could happen again on a much more terrible scale, but this time QE won't work. In that sense, yes, gold is insurance, because we are sitting on a proverbial fault line. However, if you try to take out earthquake insurance, and you live on the San Andreas Fault, it would be unobtainable. So it could be with gold if the system really starts to visibly deteriorate. We aren't there yet but how long will it hold together?

  26. Wow, today was a rough day and the markets are closed! by the time I got to the end of the comments I forgot what Dan wrote in his market take. back to the top for a re-read.

  27. I bought PM's the past 16 months because I did not see any place else to put my money. I would not buy anymore rental houses now because the prices have gone back up.
    The rent payed for the PM so I don't feel that bad about the metals going down which I bought as insurance for possible decline of the dollar.
    I feel comfortable with 25% PM, 25% cash and 50% rental property.

  28. Geo, you're okay, really good mix, solid as a rock. What you wouldn't want to have is 25% or 50% S&P.

  29. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-09/another-conspiracy-theory-bites-dust-ubs-settles-over-gold-rigging-many-more-banks-f...what rigging!

    1. Just like the Forex rigging or the Libor rigging before it this latest rigging settlement will not in of itself "set the metals free"...whatever the heck that's supposed to really mean.

      There's a reason the London "Fixes" are called just that. They were fixed on purpose and with direct market acknowledgement for decades.

      The fact that the banks that were involved in the normal fixing of the daily prices is merely evidence they probably colluded to do so.

      The "fixing" of metals will continue albeit a bit differently I would imagine.
      Time will tell if this rigging settlement or fixing of price that went on for decades will suddenly "liberate" the metals but I doubt it.

      Does anyone really think that if the price of metals were fixed/rigged by the most powerful CB's and major banks globally that all of a sudden they're going to stand aside and let those markets run wild? No way.

      Folks can complain long and mightily until their blue in the face (colloidal silver overdose symptoms maybe?) about how wrong it is that CB's and their commercial bank cohorts but the fact remains this type of stuff regarding gold and silver have been apart of the CB or market structure in gold going back for multiple decades with written public agreements for all to see if they looked. (The Washington Agreement in the '60's for example)
      The Fix is part of business as usual and so are backroom nods and winks to some degree.
      If the price of gold etc were fixed wildly upwards NO ONE in the conspiracy camps would complain at all.

      In fact, they'd applaud or cheer loudly.
      Their outrage is that the price of gold and silver is lower, not that it's fixed but rather in the "wrong" direction in their opinion.

    2. Your idea that only negative rigging is criticized is completely bogus. Markets like the Dow etc have come under tremendous scrutiny being called "the rally most hated". Real lives and businesses are affected, not just paper-tards gambling. Forces of nature will exert themselves shortly and return rationality to markets resulting in some prices higher and others lower. True demand and supply is certainly not reflected in global markets today and distortions can live on longer than suspected but not forever. Firstly, paper mountains will fall and physical ones will emerge. For some no evidence will suffice, so good luck to us all.

    3. "Forces of nature will exert themselves"

      In what way...like being liberated or set free?

      What's the old saying...the markets can stay irrational longer then you can remain solvent?
      The market you brought up was about gold rigging. My response was primarily about gold or silver.
      I mentioned nothing about equities but I can see where a case can be made for some type of QE and irrational market reaction and exuberance.

      The markets don't need to make sense and everyone's definition of fair is different. Expectations that big money (no matter the source) should stay out of the market if it effects it one way or another is unrealistic.

      The markets are what they are and it's up to the trader to not be on the wrong side of the meatgrinder and to recognize there are large forces at work within it.

      Buyer beware.

    4. I don't disagree with much of what you are saying. It however, is a question of whether certain participants are engaging in what would otherwise be considered illegal. It is not there size, it is the captured regulators who won't enforce the laws. I realize the need to rig lower to rig usd higher and keep zombie-bonds alive. I am pointing to the fact that all markets need to be rigged once you rig one, so to say precious metals are not is redonkulas.

      Whether or not it is illegal other jurisdictions will no longer allow those who have little or none of the commodity to determine the price for their own benefit. Why should Asia, who has most of it continue to allow western central banks support their worthless dollar at China's expense? Once they have emptied all the western vaults they will reprice what they have bought on the cheap. So, GLD and SLV ....soon no one will care.

    5. Good stuff MG....I agree also that at some point GLD snd SLV won't matter as much as it once seemed to be. They'll eventually unwind.
      I presume, possibly wrongly, that development would be an indication the PM's stayed in a prolonged bearish downtrend if they were no longer relevant or large.

      At what point does the tonnage of GLD gold need to drop down to that more or less signals when GLD closes as a viable fund?
      I would think at some point that if GLD holdings drop to a certain level that the Authorized Participants will pull the plug and take ownership of whatever is left.

      How low might GLD's inventory go and what might it indicate?

  30. 71 tons since the start of the year is not very much, it is only a few percent of yearly production. The sooner GLD sells out its holdings the better.

  31. Well, I guess we can put to bed this "gold isn't manipulated" issue.

    1. If it isn't then it would be the only one that isn't. Heard the same incredulous retorts from bondies when the suggestion of Libor fixing emerged, "no way don't be crazy". First bonds are going to go, then paper bullion markets, then stocks.....bye bye. Hello Shanghai physical market, and look out for bitcoin too!



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