"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, November 24, 2014

A Special Announcement

Dear Readers;

When I first began this site, more than three years ago, I did so for two reasons.  First, I wanted to use it to both freely express my own personal views of the markets, without feeling constrained by the fact that I was a guest at the sites of others. Secondly, I wished to convey some of the knowledge I had gained from trading for many years to those who were attempting to learn how to understand and look inside the markets for themselves.

 Regarding the latter of these, when I first started trading, I had no mentor, and no one I could look to in order to make sense out of what was happening. You talk about confusion and bewilderment! The sums of money I lost in gaining my experience were quite large to be honest.  One could say that I paid dearly for my education at the School of Hard Knocks! Along that line there is an old joke in our profession:

“How do make a small fortune trading commodities?”

“Simple – start with a large fortune first!”

Some might think it rather quaint but in response to many emails I received back then from those who had read my writings, I was convinced that it might be a good thing to actually try helping these many wonderful folks learn how to make some informed trading/investment decisions on their own and thus rid themselves of dependency on others when it came to making wise choices into which to put their precious wealth.

 After so many years of doing this, I think I might have succeeded in a small way based on some of the responses I have received from this, my current site. The old adage comes to mind: “Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish and feed him for a lifetime”.

That being said, the amount of time and effort that this site takes from me can be overwhelming at times. I mentioned this a while ago when seeking the comments of some of my readers about trying to actually cut back or opening the site to accepting Donations or possibly going to per click advertising.

 After much hesitation and with the friendly encouragement/ arm twisting from some of you kind readers, I decided to go with the Donation button.

 I wish to publicly express how grateful I am too all of my readers who were gracious enough to reciprocate and make a kind donation. I understand how valuable that your money is to you and the fact that you have felt moved to freely contribute something towards my efforts, speaks volumes to me about your generosity of spirit and your thoughtfulness. From the bottom of my heart, “Thank You!” You will never know how incredibly encouraging your gifts were – especially when at times it seemed the vast majority of emails in my box were vile, insulting and rude ( coming from members of the gold cult – as we have come to expect).

 As those of you know who have read here for any length of time, I make my living entirely in the markets as a trader. Nothing I have ever written in public, or spoken in an audio interview, has ever netted me a cent as I did it willingly and without charge. There does come a time however that the Scripture: “A laborer is worthy of his hire” becomes apropos. In discussions with my wife and some friends, I believe that this is that time.

 I want to therefore announce that I will be starting a fee-paid site, Trader Dan’s World. Before some of you completely panic, I will be keeping the free site up and running so that the posting community can continue to have a place in which to swap notes and such. I intend to post one or two articles there during the week. That will allow for the current posting regulars to continue to interact; however, the new site will contain the bulk of my work.

 The truth is that I have grown rather fond of some of my regular posters and although I have never met them, feel like I know them rather well as individuals because of the length of time that we have spent reading one another’s comments. I do hope some of you will be moved to come on over to the new site and give it a try.

 I fully understand that for this decision, I will catch some grief from some of the gold bugs, especially those who love to somehow manage to accuse me of always having some sort of agenda ( what that is escapes me but I trust that these all-knowing and all-wise individuals, who somehow know me better than I know myself, will be more than happy to enlighten me as to exactly what that might be). Suffice it to say, that one of the pure delights in having a fee paid site that I hope to enjoy is to finally rid myself of having to deal in any form with such people. And I must also say that having to put up with their non-stop attacks and insults, merely for calling the market as I saw it in the charts, was ONE of the factors that went into my decision to move to this fee-paid site.

 I suppose if they wish to continue their verbal assaults, they will have to fork over some cash for the privilege of so doing! Then again, considering the fact that none of them had the common trading sense to recognize a bear market and protect the value of their metals during a period of lower prices, I suspect that they are too busy nursing their many financial wounds to have any surplus cash available with which to contribute to my fee-paid site for the opportunity of continuing to insult their host. Let them grumble, murmur and complain therefore. I think the rest of us understand their kind!

 A quick word about the new site – I intend to focus on more markets that just gold or mining shares. I have been introducing other markets here at my site for those who are interested in looking at some of the other futures markets. Believe it or not, there is an entire universe of commodity markets which can be traded and which offer profit potential for those who like doing something besides watching gold prices all day long. As some of you know by now, my special areas of expertise lie in the agricultural markets, the livestock and grain markets. Those are the markets that I cut my trading teeth on and the ones that I spend the most time dealing with during the normal trading day.

 There are currency markets, and energy markets, as well as the bond market and of course the equity markets, that are all potential topics of articles that I will post and analyze from time to time. One thing that I can tell you, is that I will continue to call these markets as I see them, with no apologies for so doing. As I have said many, many times now, the business of a trader is to profit. Successful traders profit; those who fail make excuses. It is indeed that simple!

 As a way of introduction, we are going to provide a one month free trial period for my current readers so that they dip their toes into the water and check it out. I am excited about the forum that we will be setting up as well as some of the social media inputs. We plan on the site being an ongoing work in progress, making improvements and changes to it as needed or suggested. Also, I am trying to work up something extra for all those who made Donations to this site as an extra way of saying “THANK YOU”.

 In closing, I would like to thank all of my readers who have come here to read my thoughts over the years. It is an honor to have one’s views respected by a wide audience but it is also an honor that brings with it the responsibility to be truthful and to be honest. I have tried to take that charge seriously and I trust that you as my readers have seen this in my writings.


Dan Norcini

“Trader Dan”



  1. Well done, Dan. Good luck on your journey.

  2. Its about time Dan. You deserve much for what you provide here. Good for you and your decision.

  3. Dan. This was almost inevitable. However I think it is for the better. I look forward to visiting your new site. and most likely becoming a subscriber.
    I will still return here to try and help the goldbugs. I know how badly they have been hurt.
    Is there any chance of a better Texter on the new site?
    Thanks so much for all you do.

    1. Mike;

      thanks for the encouragement Mike. we have set up the new site using wordpress so I hope the text editor is better than this one but am unsure. check out the new site and let me know what you think as we are soliciting some feedback from the folks to see how we can improve it.

  4. most XLNT Dan!

    i don't read the comments section having learned early on how to get my posts in without seeing anything, but wanting to keep you posting with my brand of donation. :)

    soybeans gap fill that looked like the sales from the usda daily reporting system sales that came out during the pause, and bulls are talking firm basis in the ags.

    C U at free trial!

  5. Dan, i think i will sign up for your new fee based website. I still have some money left over after the $20k i dropped on Bo Polny's excellent chiropractic service.

    1. Bob;

      thanks... I am thinking of providing some free spinal adjustment techniques for do it yourselfers. The best one I know is where you stand on your head in front of your quote screen when viewing certain price charts. This has the effect of making them looking extremely bullish if they were previously going down. At the same time you do this, the vertebrae in your spinal column will decompress adding a full inch to your body height.
      What a deal!
      Seriously, would love to have you as a subscriber.

    2. Adding an inch to your height would also help out the Body Mass Index calculation! I'm all for anything to fool the doctor and the insurance company!

  6. Dec/Feb #Cattle spread gaps higher

    Dec #Cattle make a NEW ALL-TIME Contract HIGH!!! #Beeflievers, Can I get an AMEN?!?!

    stock mkt dec 1,2,3 all green historical days to start next week.

    there's a trade setup for the dow indu, where you try to buy the low of day the last session of month, then you try to sell the high o day 1st trading session of month, and it will get you more than 50% of the dow's total gains in a usual year!

    mostly though it's buy the 2nd to last session of month low o day, then sell 4th session of new month high, or non farm friday high.

  7. Good for you Dan
    You have always come across as altruistic in giving advice imo. We are months away from simplistic micropayments on the internet and I will be on your pay site when that arrives...(will not use c cards on internet) ...Meanwhile have fun and let us know how this decision works for you

    1. Snipus;

      Thanks for the well wishes.. let us know about those micropayment things. we might want to look into that as well!

  8. Good for you Dan! And enjoy the Holiday Week with the family.

  9. About time Dan, I can't imagine how much time you've already sunk into this place without any compensation....

    Anyway Hope to see everyone over at the new site!

    1. Marvin;

      I really did wrestle with this decision.
      Very glad to have you!

  10. Hi Dan, I much prefer a fee-paid site for a variety of reasons that you mentioned and more. Thank you for everything and wishing you the best.

    1. I just subscribed. The site looks pretty cool !!

    2. Janet;

      Glad to have you on board Janet... welcome! And thanks for the kind words. It is going to be a work in progress. The Facebook page will add a more personal touch...

    3. Yip, I already checked out the Facebook page. It really puts a face to a name as the saying goes. BTW my new username will be Creamcheese.

    4. Janet;

      Now we need someone to join with the handle "Bagel"!

    5. And perhaps we need a "pickled cucumber" :-) then we sorted...

  11. Dan,

    Yea…happy to hear and will need to join!!!

    This is how it is for me,

    My serious search for a helpful trader began in 2008…tracked somewhere around 50 analysts. The list got narrowed down to just a few.

    A couple of the few I have considered joining,

    Gary Savage…analysis changes like the weather…I nearly joined but held off because his oil article around the beginning of this fall simply did not “feel” right. I think Gary is attempting to help, but he changes so much that I would be afraid of staying just “even.” I do admit I read his free articles on a weekly basis.

    Bill Tatro…he is not all bad, but Mr. Tatro does get trends wrong and “jumps the gun” when trying to analysis markets. Mr. Tatro claims to be a Christian and so far I do not believe he is trying to deceive others. Yet, I have my doubts his paid services are worth paying for.

    There is another I follow, but as of yet I have never read anyone here debating this “guy’s” articles.

    My closing thoughts,

    I have always been hesitant to pay for advice; I am concerned about either being taken or the membership’s info not working out.

    Dan, I’m happy to state publicly you are the exception. Though your radio interviews and writings over the past 7+ years, I have come to appreciate your work.

    Dan, Thank you very much for Sharing your life with us.

    1. Shem Blue;

      Thank you so much for such kind words. I am honored by them.
      I have tried very hard to stay objective in analyzing markets although like any trader, we all tend to have biases based on our understanding of the market fundamentals at any given time.

      These markets can be very fickle and with the proliferation of computerized algorithms knocking them all over the place, they can confuse even seasoned traders.

      I will do my best to uphold the trust and confidence you have expressed here. Thank you so much.

  12. Dear Dan,

    I have been reading your blog since the first day of establishment, and even before on other sites. Though I am not a trader, but hav great interest in these issues, and especially gold market.

    Thanks a lot for your great effort, tme and energy. Definitely, I will beocme the subscribed member of your new site, and I think this is a good decision, especially for us, the followers. Because, now, you can spend even more of your time to write so valuable articles :)

    Good luck!


    1. Elchin;

      Thanks so much for the encouragement. I do hope to continue to provide some informative commentary for the readers.

  13. Way to go Dan, congrats!

    I think you've gone about this the right way and with the right intentions and doing so while remaining humble. That's important.

  14. Does anybody know how to subscribe to Trader Dan's new site; I tried to look for it under Trader Dan's Market Forum and can't seem to find it. Thank you!

  15. Dan- Very much look forward to joining the new site. Thanks for starting it up!

    1. trinity - will be glad to see you over there my friend.

  16. Hi Dan, good for you on earning some income from this site. Wisdom is worth something. Just a question. Can you point us to information regarding your trading services so that we can examine the possibilities of investing in the funds you control.

    1. Christine and Andrew;

      Thanks for the kind sentiments. I am a private trader and do not trade for others. I do hope however that some of what I am teaching can assist others in making their own informed judgments when making investment or trading decisions. We are all students of the markets here and are doing our best to read them and decipher what they are saying to us so that we can hopefully profit from such and secure our future and that of our children.
      very best wishes to you.

  17. TD - I'm glad you decided to go this route. Not only will you get rid of the trolls, who were driving you bonkers, but you will get some compensation for all your hard work.

  18. Dan,

    I wish you king of something or somewhere.
    And I salute you.

    1. Loren;

      His Royal Majesty, King Daniel... Hey- I could get used to that!

  19. Hi Dan,
    I think everyone had more than enough time to judge the value of your free content over the years.
    At some time, it seems normal to reciprocate somehow to your efforts of maintaining this site. Nothing can be for free forever.
    You had to lose a lot of money yourself initially to learn your trading skills today.
    It seems normal to pay a modest sum of money to learn from experienced traders as well if one wants to learn with guidance.
    I wish your new website a full success, and hope it will even improve the quality of the forum as a result.

    1. Hubert;

      Many thanks for those kind word from a fine human being. Having you posting here has been a blessing to all of us my friend.

      I hope you will stick around and join the forum to share your wisdom and views.

  20. Trader Dan - I am a long time reader, reformed gold bug but really a fly on the wall when it comes to participating in the discussion...

    Something stood out to me in your KWN interviews back in the day...you ALWAYS thanked Eric for having you on. I can hear your voice as clearly now as at the time when you contributed your last interview: "Yeah Hi Eric, thanks for having me on again..." and then you go into discussing your analysis. You always showed that respect.

    I have learned a lot from you and recouped many losses. I will continue to learn more. As a busy financial professional (tax specialist), I have an awful lot to keep me busy with the rapidly changing environment, but I always make time to read your site since your UNBIASED and unmatched work fulfills a craving I (and all your readers) have for honesty.

    One more comment...your site is a perfect mix of technical information delivered in an understandable way to the non-professional...the "baby bear's porridge" of trader sites :-)

    I will be exploring your new paid site.

    1. MB Wise -

      My sincere thanks for such gracious words and for such encouragement! Thank you so very much!

  21. Dear Trader Dan, thank you for your valuable advice.
    Without it I would have lost a lot. Especially after 2011 - being a goldbug.
    You have been very kind to your regular readers.
    Always clear and logical.
    Its funny, one week ago I closed my trading account (being over 80 years),
    und now you change your site - coincidence.
    Goodbey and good luck.
    Kind regards Horst Krause

  22. Dear Trader Dan, thank you for your valuable advice.
    Without it I would have lost a lot. Especially after 2011 - being a goldbug.
    You have been very kind to your regular readers.
    Always clear and logical.
    Its funny, one week ago I closed my trading account (being over 80 years),
    und now you change your site - coincidence.
    Goodbey and good luck.
    Kind regards Horst Krause

    1. Horst Krause;
      My sincere thanks for the kind words and my sincere best wishes for a happy and fruitful retirement. Enjoy that time and make the most of it!

  23. Dan,
    Very few of your readers truly understand the time and effort it requires to run even the smallest of blogs or websites. I've wondered when you were going to physically collapse from lack of sleep.

    I haven't bothered to ask you for another visit as I know your time is so precious, not only for your own recuperation, but because you need all the quality time with your wife and kids you can find.

    I turned 70 on Nov 16.

    It sure did arrive quick. You are going to be shocked as the next two decades run over you. Enjoy what physical health you have now as ailments hit more frequently in your later years and your energy declines dramatically if you aren't on a regular exercise program.

    Don't let this new paid site add more work to your already insane work schedule. If anything, you should be cutting back on what you've been doing.

    On your last day in this lifetime, you won't be saying, " I wish I had written more articles." If history is any example, your wisdom will not be used by future generations.

    Nevertheless, we all appreciate every word you have posted. It has been rewarding to find someone who could put into words the most confusing aspects of these insane markets and some very basic principles of life to boot.

    You are a very rare and brilliant man who deserves all the respect you receive and have legitimately earned.

    Happy Holidays to you and your family.

    Cedric Ward "Goldtrader"


    1. Cedric;
      Happy Birthday you ol' fart! :o)

      Some days I feel like an ol' fart myself buddy!
      These markets stay open way too long during the day for us carbon-based life forms. Maybe is we both gave up eating and sleeping ( nasty habits anyway) we could get some rest but then again, I would miss that smoked salmon too much!

      thanks as always for the kind words and the sage counsel - indeed our family and friends are what matters more when all is said and done!

      Get that snow shovel and snow blower ready!

    2. Goldtrader,
      Awesome. I'm only 54 and I'm feeling it every day. I'm in a panic to get as healthy as I can, do all things that I should have been doing all along, just to stretch it out a bit. My wife and kids still need me for a while yet...

    3. Plus, I'm just as curious as hell to see how everything turns out!

    4. Who was right? And who was wrong? Right now I have no idea! And that is what is so interesting!

    5. Yeah, none of us will be saying, "I wish I had commented more on blogs." lol

      and there's another comment that served no purpose whatsoever... ;)

  24. Good for you! If I can afford it I'm there!
    God bless you and may the fruits of your labor magnify 10 fold.

    1. kritrdr;

      Thanks for the kind words and the well wishes!

  25. I am somebody who only very recently and fleetingly come across this (traderdannorcini.blogspot) site. I bookmarked it some time ago because my interest was piqued by your discussions with what may fairly be called a goldbug, but only came back to it today for a second look, and having done so, have just read your note regarding the new paid site. I have just found that new site but am left scratching my head because it is not at all clear from the new site what it is that you will be offering for the paid subscription.

    I do not doubt that the subscription will be worth it; although I cannot possibly know as I have had virtually no interaction with this old site; but I would say to you if you wish to attract more subscribers to the new site it would be helpful to newcomers for you to say very briefly (briefly is the operative word here) on the home page what it is that you are selling.

    There are many sites for traders but they differ in what they sell. You could be selling outright trading calls, or just (informed) ruminations, notes on technical setups, notes on fundamentals, or general trading advice, or specific advice, or ... well the list goes on and on, but I guess most people will simply want to know whether you are selling trading calls, yes or no. Think the following heading: "What you will get:...bang bang bang"

    I did come across the "about td" section, but I think you can file that under "tl;dr". Most people really can't be bothered to read all that text about you (or me, or anybody), even if you're the POTUS. All they care about is, how long have you been trading, what do you trade, and what's your record.

    I just rated your site "bad" by the way, because I have no idea what is offered, unless I subscribe. Of course, you have a lot of sycophants here who have voted it excellent, but such (well-meaning) sycophancy does you no favours at all.

    I wish you all the very best with your venture. This is intended to be constructive criticism, and if I had a clue what it is that you will be offering, I might subscribe. Decent, consistently profitable traders are hard to come by, and of those, those who are willing to share harder still.

    1. How could you rate a site you didn't actually visit based on the FAQ?

      If you had visited here for almost 4 years instead of your admitted "just recently" you might have a clue what to expect.

      You admit to having "no clue" about many things here but you feel it necessary to lob a feeble, trollish rambling innuendo guised as constructive criticism?

      Thank goodness for the subscription side. :-p

    2. Unknown, are you a clown or a donkey?

    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    4. Wow, the wackos are still attacking him

      Isn't it clear that he is offering the reports shown on that site?

      I think this is great for Trader Dan. I came here about a year ago, and I thought it was amazing that there was this guy providing such fantastic information FOR FREE! You couldn't easily get better info if you paid for it.

      This quote from him says it all!

      ***"However, I have come to realize over the years, that the knowledge I am freely giving away to others is that which I have accumulated in over 25 years in the markets. Trust me when I say that I have PAID DEARLY to learn these things ( Lose enough in the markets and you will eventually get wise and learn how NOT to do that). That, plus the amount of I spend at my site, writing what are hopefully informative pieces to educate others in the nature of markets, has convinced me that it is a reasonable thing to ask others to pay a small fee in order to be the beneficiaries of the experience I have garnered throughout my career. Even a small nugget at times, can save them from much greater losses than they might have otherwise incurred."

      I hope Trader Dan makes a ton of money doing this - he deserves it!

      I do not trade Futures (I focus on ETFs) - so I will have to think about it. But I do think $400 is pretty cheap for such great info.

    5. eric webber;

      I sincerely appreciate those very kind words my friend. One of the intangible rewards for laboring at this site for as many years as I have has been the opportunity to make the acquaintance of some very fine people such as yourself.

      There are times when the "hate mail" can get to you and drag you down. Then you read a post like this, and so many of the other kind words , and it really lifts your spirits.
      thanks so much!

    6. Thanks. By the way - hate mail is a sign of your success! Gold is a hot, controversial topic (because of its cult following) and it's great importance all throughout history. The truth can hurt - and when it comes from someone successful, who has garnered a following - it hurts even more.

      We can ridicule those who are attacking you (they deserve it). But, they really are the ones that need the most help....and perhaps they will mature and realize how helpful you were.

      So, when you get hate mail - take it as a badge of honor.

    7. BTW - as a young 35 year old man -- I would so LOVE to be able to follow in your foot steps. That would be my dream - but a very long way to go, I have.

  26. Getting back to business for a moment, XLY put in a blistering performance today.

    Don't Fight The Tape.

    I know, something so short and simple can't really be worthwhile advice. But actually, YES, that's all there really is to it. Easy to say, and hard to do. That's the trick.

  27. Dan

    I've often thought it must be so time consuming and, at times, stressful maintaining this site.

    Always appreciated your candor and willingness to share all your years of knowledge with complete strangers.

    I've always enjoyed the discussions on here, particularly because they offer alternative perspectives from the gold bug websites.

    Look forward to checking out your new site and congratulations as it's time you were compensated for the time and effort that goes in to maintaining a site like this.

    1. Dominic;

      thanks so very much for the encouragement...


  28. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. Could the beginning of the end of OPEC be underway?

      "Here’s what OPEC’s big Nov. 27 meeting could mean for oil futures"
      By William Watts
      Published: Nov 24, 2014 3:16 p.m. ET

      Cartel in Catch-22 as it debates a production cut...(cont.)


      Nothing is forever and at some point OPEC will split and it'll be "every man for themself" among the former OPEC members who might start to use other currencies in an increasing manner other then the infamous "petro-dollar" method of settlement.

      With Russia accepting mega amounts of yuan in their recent long term oil deal with China I wonder how long it'll be before OPEC fractures and certain countries start dealing with China exclusively in yuan and what effect that would have on the USD longterm.

      It might not be as great a threat to the USD as it's been prophesized. It seems possible that the petro-dollars converted by Saudi Arabia into UST's isn't the end-all-be-all that the collapse of the USD is based upon...the collapse of the petro-dollar system once demand for UST's collapse.
      But what if demand doesn't fall off and indirect monetization by many CB's (including BOC) becomes the norm?

      It seems possible that in an era where treasury bond issuance is more and more soaked up by CB's that are engaging in bond buying and other asset purchases that the USD being the central currency in the energy sector isn't as important as it once was relative to the USD/UST recycling theory.

      With USD denominated debt being bought up or sterilized over the last several years by the Fed (and trillions of dollars later) that withdrawal of debt dollars out of the market will keep the USD strong even if it starts to lose some market share to the weaker yuan.
      A weaker yuan that by the way is about to start being distributed to a much greater extent as TRILLIONS of yuan that didn't previously exist will be printed or digitalized into the currency markets in the near future as the yuans use expands.
      At some point (years if not a decade or more) the yuan displaces or surpasses the yens importance in the currency markets as the yen falls further out of favor as the yuan gsins wider acceptance.

      In an era of weakening currencies and massive capital creation they'll always be a demand for a strong currency that isn't flooding the market like the yuan will eventually do somewhat like the USD did post WWII.
      It seems possible that as the dollar supply (as debt) starts to shrink that the USD stays strong and in demand while the yuan becomes more plentiful and China one day (decades from now) becomes a net debtor nation as their treasury and bond markets open up to foreign investment.
      The death or collapse of the USD based on a different OPEC landscspe whereby the USD isn't the primary currency could end up just being another greatly overblown internet UScentric doomer theory that doesn't come to pass like so many others before it.

      And I didn't even mention gold once. ;-)

    2. I read somewhere that the US, Canada and Mexico could soon setup an equivalent North American OPEC-like organization. That could be interesting.

    3. Gartman was on CNBC tonight (haters go away, I like the guy) talking about how they'll talk production cuts and next thing you know the numbers will come out about how they are all cheating with higher production numbers, just like every other time in the history of the world.
      Says we'll see 60's before 80's on oil. Says if you see even a buck higher on the OPEC news, sell the shit out of it.

      The trend is yer friend, kids, and yeah the odds are he's right.

    4. The Mexican petroleum monopoly (PEMEX) reform is under the radar and a big deal and I agree that at some point a North American petroleum/LNG cartel could evolve that includes Canada as well as Mexico and the US and maybe beyond if the US eventually digs it's claws into South America....specifically Venezuela.

      The uptake in the use of the USD regionally for energy could more then offset any decrease in the USD in the MENA area imho.
      The collapse of the petro-dollar and by extension the US FRN system is overblown doomer stuff I think that's based more on contempt of the Federal Reserve and the US fractional reserve note system overall that they hope crashes and causes the great reset blah, blah, blah.
      Your basic Doomer 101 stuff.
      "Pemex Bonds Jarred as Oil Slump Overwhelms Reform: Mexico Credit"


    5. DPH -- I couldn't agree with you more. The PEMEX reforms already are having a giant affect on American companies - especially in Texas. Texas looks as if it is about to absolutely explode economically due to the oil boom.

  29. Dan, I have read and appreciated your site for a few years now, and I'm interested in the new one. Will you be making specific trade recommendations on the new site?

  30. Wow, you offer constructive criticism and what you get is a load of hate mail in return! How ironic. "You're a troll! You're a hateful spiteful troll!"

    Everything I said is factual. I went to the new site because I came across this site briefly in the past and was interested in what this guy Dan is offering. Seriously. When I landed on the new site, I saw:
    1. a load of links all of which are paywalled: "This content is for subscribers only." Uh. Ok so the only way I see it is by subscribing. But do I want to do that? I have no clue of this guy's track record. Is that MY FAULT? For anybody landing at the new site who hasn't "bothered to be here for the past 4 years" is that HIS FAULT?

    2. nothing on the new site that says in a nutshell who the site is aimed at and what the site offers for the money. You have to subscribe to see that. Meh. Can't be bothered. Who likes subscribing to sites that don't give you at least a window into some example content e.g. from the past?

    What I wrote was intended as constructive criticism. Everybody (myself included) is worthy of constructive criticism.

    "You're a hateful troll!" is not constructive criticism.

    As for this:
    "How could you rate a site you didn't actually visit based on the FAQ? If you had visited here for almost 4 years instead of your admitted "just recently" you might have a clue what to expect."

    Oh I'm very very sorry, it's MY FAULT that I haven't been here for 4 years? It's MY FAULT that I am a new guy here interested in what Dan Norcini is offering on his new site but with no prior knowledge of what he does and how he does it? That's all my fault?

    So presumably for all the hundreds of thousands (or more) of people (call them traders, call them wannabe traders, call them gamblers, whatever) out there in the world who could benefit from Dan's new site (and he from their subscriptions) but who also haven't visited here before, it's all THEIR FAULT for not knowing what the new site offers? They also "have no clue"? They also are by inference "stupid trolls" if they say "hey dude, what's the new site about, all I see is a bunch of links for subscribers only; not sure I can be bothered to subscribe to Yet Another Trading Site seeing as I can't see any of what you do".

    Ok I tried. I offered constructive criticism. Any website is like a shop. It should have a shop window. People should know what they are getting. Easily. Without having to subscribe first.

    UNLESS this new site is not for people like me? It's not for "new" people? It's only for people who "have bothered to be here for the past 4 years"?

    But hey you can ignore me I'm just a clueless troll who has it in for Dan. Even though I've never met him, never spoken to him, wished him well with his new venture and said I'd be interested in subscribing.

    If all you can do is be reflexively unpleasant ("you're a troll! you're a hateful spiteful troll!"), then do me a favour, put a stopper in it.

    1. Jeez Loueeezzz man, lighten up. There's nothing there at the new site yet. It's just a shell. Just chill....

    2. I didn't see anyone use the word "hate" at all except your
      repeated reference to a reference that no one made.

      Pretty dramatic stuff...but don't take it personally as it's only meant as constructive criticism. ;-)

    3. Unknown...

      Try to get your empty head around this.

      The reason you are 'unknown'
      is because YOU ARE AN IDIOT!

      Now, please go away and continue
      getting your information from your TV
      or the late and never correct financial
      publications at your news stand.

      With a mind like yours, I'm sure you
      will soon have no assets at all.


  31. Everybody here owes gratitude for our Trader Dan for nailing the top of the oil market almost to the day.

    Because of Dan's advice I cashed out of a huge XLE and UGA position and I'm grateful to escape the obliteration in that sector ever since.

    Hat's off Dan, we'll be seeing you over at the new blog site.

    1. Mark;

      Thanks for the kind words Mark. Will be looking forward to having you over at the new site. You add some real zest to the site!

      See ya there!

  32. Tiresias...

    You are so full of crap, I don't know where to start tearing your little tirade apart.

    Markets go up and down for long periods of time.

    Dan stays with the TREND of the markets that pay off.

    He doesn't waste his time and money fighting the trend which he 'analyzes' use market data in the form of charts, which he creates and shares with us.

    His charts represent REALITY!

    NOTHING is more destructive to one's wealth than being welded to one position after the direction of that position has changed
    If you don't appreciate the FREE information Dan has been offering for about FIFTEEN YEARS now on different websites and now his own blog, then don't visit his blog or read his articles.

    If you don't want to pay for his advice, which you seem to discredit with absolutely no credibility, then don't pay for it.

    Just go away and take your specious opinions with you.

    It's as simple as that.


  33. Thanks so much Dan. U set me str8. I was following those as clowns at king world news

  34. Hi Dan
    Love your work. I read your blog on iPhone and cannot see the weblink to your new site. Please advise

    1. JesseLDR;

      thanks for the kind words...


  35. A shortage of bonds in an era of massive stimulus sounds like an indication of something significant.

    "The $400 Billion Bond Mismatch Keeping Bears at Bay Endures"

    By Susanne Walker
    November 24, 2014 12:00 PM EST

    Even in the $100 trillion market for bonds worldwide, one of the most persistent dilemmas facing potential buyers is a dearth of supply.

    Demand for debt securities has surpassed issuance five times in the past seven years, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The shortfall is set to continue into 2015, with the New York-based firm predicting demand globally will outstrip supply by about $400 billion as central banks in Japan and Europe step up their own debt purchases.

    The mismatch helps to explain why bond yields worldwide have fallen by more than half since the financial crisis in 2008 to a record-low 1.51 percent in October, even as borrowing by governments, businesses and consumers added $30 trillion to the market for debt securities. Now, with a global economic slowdown threatening to hold back the U.S. recovery and few signs of inflation anywhere in the developed world, the shortage of bonds may temper the...(cont.)


  36. Dan

    Firstly, please let me thank you for the hard work you have put into this free website over the past years; its quality and perseverance in the face of significant headwinds stands as a testament not only to your skills and experience as a professional trader, but also to your generosity and kindness of spirit as a Gentleman. Sincerely, Thankyou

    Secondly, it is both appropriate and essential that you switch to a paid-for model, as not only are your opinions and insights valuable, so is your time and effort in writing and then caretaking the ensuing debate, and I can respect that

    Thirdly, one benefit of a subscription service is that it will hopefully tune out some of the casual dilettante contributors and spam artists, such as your ardent followers from the Indian subcontinent; in addition contributors will no longer be able to hide behind a veil of anonymity and be able to take potshots at you personally without revealing their identity. This is not to suggest that I discourage dissent, but it is, after all, your website, and you have every right to choose who to do business with

    Fourthly, my initial instinct when reading your message was to hope that your new service would be appropriately expensive; not only is your time valuable, but a premium price would mark you out as a premium provider, rather than a $10/month merchant. I do not consider $400/year in any way unreasonable (although it crossed my mind to wonder why you didnt go for $365 or a round $500). The new site - admittedly work in progress - does not do you credit, but I sense your new subscription will sell based on the reputation you have justifiably developed on this website, and the inclusion of a "suck it and see" trial period will allow people to form their opinion based on the content rather than the wrapper

    Fifthly, however, I will not be subscribing; after reflecting upon it, I have realised that my time also has a value, and that I have been wasting far too much of it reading and writing on websites dedicated to markets and investments, and this prompt has therefore come as a wake-up call to me that I should be putting my own time to better use. I started off reading "The Usual Suspects" a few years back, have gradually tuned out everything except an occasional view of Zerohedge and idle laughs at KWN, but even so, there is so much more in my life which should be taking my attention, and upon reflection I have decided to donate the $399 to charity rather than to suscribe.

    I trust you can tell from this comment that my decision is no reflection upon you or your subscription service - in fact, I am grateful to you for snapping me out of this daily habit, which upon reflection is as compulsive as World of Warcraft is to my daughter and her friends, and equally distracting

    And so, farewell and Godspeed. It has been fun, but now its time to move on

  37. Dan -

    Been reading you for some time now... any way to contact you personally (by email)?

  38. Thanks for all your work Dan! I was willing to pay $9.99/month (similar to TF Metals), but $29.99/month is a lot of money. Any chance you'll be lowering the fee?

  39. Dan ill glady sign up as soon as i figured out how to do that.


    "Q6…What was your relationship with Mr Gold , Jim Sinclair and how has it evolved .

    Let’s just say that I considered Jim a good friend at one time but we have different views on gold and different views about making market calls and predictions."

    I would add that you have different views on relationships too, thats distinguishes you from Sinclair who is clearly a sociopath.

    I would also surmise that Jims views on gold are probably the same as yours, he did sell all his shares after all.

    Jims advice is predicated on what Jim has to sell. Thats why, for example, Jim stopped advicing people to buy a hobby farm after he sold his.

  40. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. Like Dan's been saying...the Euro and gold seemed tied at the hip lately.

      The mini spike down and up in gold mirrors what the EUR just did this a.m.
      We're only talking about a meager $10 range that lately has seen $1204-ish as resistance so far.

    2. Just imagine what might happen when the UK leaves the EU at some point and what that'll do to the Euro and by extension gold. :-o

      Maybe at that point the recent EUR/gold correlation is no longer in play. Either way, I think it likely the UK steps away from the EU.

  41. Dan: You are making the right call; maintaining such a FREE blog is bandwidth sucking and distracts from other more important things ( like family etc.).

    Good luck and Best Wishes

    PS: As an aside, will Nov mark a bottom ( cyclical or secular) in Gold/Silver. ? Time will tell.

  42. Oil price crash continues unabated.

    Never before has the consumer ever been happier, enjoying the fruits of endless money printing by the Central Planners.

    Enjoy the economic boom!

  43. Trader Dan,
    I discovered your site about 6 months ago-an answer to prayer (really). I am trying to learn to be a trader (for about a year now). I have always been interested in history & economics and trading, but never had time to actually try to become a trader until about a year ago. I opened an on-line trading acct. & dove in—with the number one goal –NOT TO LOSE MONEY, While trying to learn to trade. I waded thru all the rip-off trader schools etc.—none of which I can afford anyway—then found your site & have been reading it almost exclusively ever since. I hope your many archived articles with comments will still be available. I just want to say thank-you Dan & thank-you to all people who shared their knowledge in the comments sections each day. I plan to subscribe to your new site hopefully in a month or 2. There is something else taking all my time right now.
    I wish you, Dan, & all of you who have shared your knowledge, THE VERY BEST,
    Wannabe Trader, Tom in Sparks, NV.

  44. `dtds: hedge funds trying to close the year very funny
    25 Nov 14, 16:19
    dtds: no point trying baby 1.23 is official

    Here you have Jims buddy, Luis Ahlborn Sequira painting the TRX close and admitting it quite openly at the TRX fanclub site. / Thats pretty much a confession by a market manipulator.

    Jims everything he rails against, most of all a sick sociopath.

    1. Luis Ahlborn Sequira is a complete joke.

      Do you remember how many HUI GDX charts that loser posted on jims site claiming "this is it, the bottom is in !" all the way down to where we are now ? Not one of his predictions came true.

    2. Luis has been spread trading mostly with a short bias all the way down.

  45. Get long and stay long stocks, folks. I think this article nails it.


  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

    1. Here's some pretty eye-opening numbers in the link below and the implications of cheap oil on economies that rely on that revenue.

      The death of the so-called petro-dollar is greatly overblown...as is peak oil.
      What the decades old theory (of massively exported USD to pay for the US's energy needs) never took into account was that the US eventually would become a net exporter of oil and an IMPORTER of revenues from abroad as well as domestically that keep those so-called petro-dollars at home.

      The petroUSD/UST recycling isn't as crucial as once thought and especially so in an era of asset/bond purchases by CB's that's unprecedented in it's scope.
      The world is awash with oil at this point (even if extraction isn't accomplished as easy as it once was) due to current technologies that weren't around a mere 10 years ago that've dramatically increased production worldwide. Data confirms that, believe it or not.

      The petro-dollar collapse folks should reconsider the effect the new oil paradigm in place (that's still in it's infancy) will have on their theory and how the effects of a stronger dollar will impact just about everything like it is now.
      What was previously inconceivable by some (strong USD/US oil EXPORTER) needs to be reconsidered.
      A N. American energy cartel is inevitable.
      Opinion: Americans, let’s be thankful that U.S. oil is pulverizing OPEC

      By Tim Mullaney
      Published: Nov 26, 2014 8:23 a.m. ET
      Shale is lowering demand for crude oil, hurting lousy regimes across the world
      Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is being pummeled by low oil prices.
      Russia needs crude oil to cost $101 a barrel to balance its budget.
      Brent crude now is priced at around $79.

      Americans will give thanks for just about everything this weekend, and most of all for one another. I’ll save a toast for George Mitchell, the man who more than any other is enabling America to wipe the smirks off faces of a lot of people who have deserved it for an exceedingly long time.

      Mitchell is the pioneer of hydraulic fracking, the breakthrough that has increased U.S. crude oil production by 80% since 2008...(cont.)


    2. It might be awhile before the referenced "inflationary concerns" abate.

      "Russia Weighs Monetary Easing Next Year"

      By Anna Andrianova and Olga Tanas
      November 26, 2014 6:25 AM EST

      The Bank of Russia is considering potential monetary easing starting from the second half of next year, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

      “As soon as inflation and inflation expectations show they’re slowing, we’ll be ready to ease monetary policy,” Nabiullina told lawmakers in Moscow today. “According to our estimates, that will be possible in the second half of the year.”

      Policy makers have raised their key rate by 400 basis points since March to rein in inflation at a three-year high, ignited by a ruble selloff and the exchange of sanctions imposed with the U.S. and its allies over the Ukrainian crisis. The currency is the world’s WORST performer this year after the Ukrainian hryvnia,...(cont.)

    3. DPH - I completely agree.

      The US is about to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil exporter – perhaps as early as 2016. This is absolutely huge. Think of oil as a form of goldilocks stimulus. The more oil that comes online, the better positioned the US becomes to deliver low-inflation economic growth. Cheaper oil means lower transport and production costs for US companies. Cheaper oil also acts as a stimulant to consumers via lower prices at the pump. According to Deutsche Bank, a $10 fluctuation in oil prices translates to a 25 cent fluctuation in the retail price of gasoline. Each penny of increase or decrease in the price of gasoline equates to $1.4 billion in household energy consumption. This is huge for American consumers and great for the dollar!! The dollar is only going to get stronger and stronger as a reserve currency.

      And let’s not forget that America will also become the world’s largest natural Gas exporter too!!!!!! AND do not forget coal – America is already the world’s largest coal exporter. And with new technologies that allow for clean liquid coal production – it too could become huge. America is set to step into a class all by itself as the world’s largest energy exporter. Gosh, and I have not even mentioned solar panels – for which America is the world’s leader.

      There are many ways in which energy is a game changer. The ability of the United States to add “energy superpower” to its long list of superlatives — agricultural superpower, technology superpower, demographic superpower, entrepreneurial innovation superpower etc — has a huge amount of embedded economic value – as it literally has an effect on everything. What we are seeing here is essentially a “worst nightmare” confluence of scenarios for die-hard goldbugs like Sprott and co. who are waiting for the US system to implode and the economic world to end. What all of these pessimists have consistently underestimated, or overlooked completely, is the net value of American wealth as juxtaposed against American debt… and in respect to physical and intellectual assets, not to mention agricultural and energy assets, the United States is the richest country in the history of the world, perhaps by a factor of ten.

  47. What are you thankful for this Thanksgiving? Dow Theory breakouts don't normally come to mind, but hey why not?


  48. I know many here probably echo this but I'm thankful for all the small positive things in life that sometimes might go unnoticed.

    For example, the ability to eat regularly and have plenty of food (and water!) available is something so basic that it might be overlooked by some because we might take it for granted.

    Happy thanksgiving to all...and be safe in your travels. :-)

  49. We had discussed possible upcoming reverse splits for miner etf's. Looks like JNUG will bite the bullet with a 1 for 10 next month.


    1. Even if gold rockets up to $1300? They must be anticipating that JNUG will not rebound much?

    2. Leveraged etf's are screwed long term from the get-go. Daily rebalancing is a constant drag. Reverse splits are the norm.

      Not to be held overnight, under any circumstances.

  50. Happy Thanksgiving everyone, and especially those travelling the the Northeast ! Sparks, of course.

  51. Trader Dan - thanks for all the great interpretations over the years. If you choose to have financial compensation for your work that's not unfair and the the goldbugs have been pretty harsh. The fee is too steep for me as I don't trade enough to make good use of it. I do like to hobby analyze. Best of fortune to you.

  52. Every analyst has the right to create a paid service, but this pattern of blogging and then creating a pay for service is very telling. It says in no uncertain terms that you cannot make it as a trader alone and you need subscribers to stay afloat in the real world. If you are a really good trader, you would not need to market yourself to gain a following. If you were a good trader, you would be hiring accountants, lawyers, and other traders to exploit your vast knowledge and minimize your tax burden.

    So it is with 99% of analysts -- they just need somebody to listen to them and to give them money. The 1% of traders who are making big money don't want or need to share their knowledge with perfect strangers of how to make vast sums of money.

    1. Joe
      Go back and read Dans old posts. Your completely wonkers in your evaluation of his motives.

      Your post is actually and example of why he has established a paid site.

    2. Joe Jost...

      You don't know your a$$ from a hole in the ground.
      You aren't even smart enough to troll effectively.



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