"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Tuesday, October 14, 2014

USDA Crop Condition/Progess reports

Those of you who trade grains will already be well aware of how busy I am right now but I will get some comments up on the grain reports this afternoon when I get some time. Needless to say, there has been a bloodbath among the shorts as some big specs went after the short interest.

Both corn and beans are showing a larger percentage of the crops have been harvested than the pre-report estimates which may lead to some selling this evening/afternoon on the open.

If you ask me why these things are rallying like they are, I have no explanation. All I can say at this point is that some very big specs went after the short interest and used the recent low pressure weather system that went through the Corn belt yesterday and Tuesday as an excuse.

I have not seen any reports of any major crop damage thus the entire rally looks to me to have been a series of upside buy stops that cascaded and set off the computers buying.

This is why I constantly make mention of the nature of today's markets when dealing with those in the gold bug community who blame every single move lower in gold as part of some orchestrated plot on the part of the "evil bullion banks - backed by the feds" to take it down. Those who advocate such foolishness have never seen what some of these big specs can to do a market.

more later...


  1. Any gut feelings on crude Dan......like where you can see it bottoming?

    1. IMHO the way it's dropping. Could go much lower. $80?
      Could also snap back fast when the computers start buying again.

  2. Soybean condition index score of 386 is second only to 1992 & 1994 for end of the growing season.

    Soybeans 40% harvested as of Oct 12, that's fairly higher than most expected..normal is 50% for the date.

    october soymeal and soyoil expire tomorrow, another bullish factor mentioned.

    blurb: portion of recent ags short covering
    may be triggered by funds heading to the sidelines in wake of heightened volatility across multiple asset classes.

    margin calls if somebody was long CL ES or whatever has been dumping so much, you have to get out of other positions (such as ags)

    ZC dec corn when it went thru 350 it traded 6000 buy stops in a minute 12:34CT.

    softs look good, cocoa has bull fundamentals and sugar looks good. coffee the widow maker but can be used for sentiment.

    copper nice move, all the mortgage sellers were trumpeting a 3.7% 30-yr mortgage coming up! buh buh buh bonds!! :)

    1. Another recap by boy wonder 77 out of Mom's basement; the boy has no pride


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