"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Saturday, October 25, 2014

The GIAMATT Crowd and Perpetual Motion

For hundreds of years, dreamers, theorists and inventors, along with a huge assortment of quacks, hucksters and con men, have sought to either create or to peddle to the unsuspecting, a machine that when once set in motion, would continue moving without the application of any outside energy to feed it. Of course science has long ago disproved that this is possible because of what are widely acknowledged and irrefutable laws that govern our universe - namely the first and second laws of thermodynamics.

This is not a site dedicated to the exposition of those laws nor is this post directed at refuting the theory of perpetual motion.

What it is directed at this time around is yet one more novel theory concocted by the GIAMATT crowd. For newer readers this is the  short-hand abbreviation I have assigned to the "Gold is Always Manipulated All The Time" crowd.

That perpetual motion has been disproved has not stopped some from promoting it in order to create an income. Same goes for some in the GIAMATT group - that their wild and logic-twisting theories have been disproven time and time again, does not stop them from coming up with yet another and another and another. One must hand it to them - they seem to never grow weary, shame-faced or at a loss in their ingenuity at devising one more scheme to justify substantially higher gold prices.

I have chronicled some of these in the past three years and have written many refutations in an attempt to provide some balance that has hopefully spared some of their victims from losing a substantial portion of their hard-earned wealth.

Please see this previous post for a laundry list and note that this is not all of the theories that I have seen over this time period but only the more prominent ones.


I would like to focus in on the latest.  I am forced to admit this is one that stretches the ability of those whose minds work in a logical manner to conceive of anyone falling for such a twisted example of convoluted and contradictory assertions.

I referenced this the other day in that post linked above but here it is in a nutshell.

The big gold ETF, GLD, is being drained of its gold inventory in order to meet insatiable demand coming out of the East and that this is BULLISH for the metal.

Let's start with a brief history of GLD, ACCORDING to some of the very same people promoting this latest theory.

Remember, in their mind, it is a contest between the PAPER gold markets here in the WEST and the REAL ( their word) gold market, which is in the far East.

Their claim is that were it not for manipulation of the gold price here in the West, that gold would be substantially higher because the true price would be set in the East by the physical market there. According to their new priests and prophets which lead this gold cult, once all of the gold is finished being drained from GLD, it will liberate the metal from the constraints being placed upon it in the West and the price will soar. Therefore, according to this view, FALLING GOLD INVENTORIES in GLD is ultimately WILDLY BULLISH!

( Please note that every single one of these theories is ALWAYS wildly bullish and PROOF POSITIVE that sharply higher gold prices are imminent).

Let's proceed to dismantle this latest theory by taking a trip back in time. When GLD was first introduced, a large number, if not an outright majority of those in the gold bug community swore up and down that its introduction was further evidence that the powers that be in the West were intent on siphoning true demand for gold AWAY from the physical gold market ( remember - in their mind that is the real gold market ) by creating another PAPER vehicle, just like the Comex. This paper vehicle would divert millions, tens of millions and hundreds of millions of dollars into an entity which could be manipulated by the "evil bullion bankers" and thus serve as a sort of Trojan Horse ( remember that phrase because it was extremely popular back then- Trojan Horse).

The big case against it however was its auditing process and specifically the point that the custodian for GLD was none other than HSBC, one of the noted "conspirators" in rigging the gold and silver prices (their claim - NOT mine). In other words, it was a case of the Fox guarding the chicken coop as far as they were concerned.

Additionally, they railed against the Authorized Participants of GLD - Bear, Stearns, Lehman, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, UBS and Morgan Stanley as being unfit to be associated with anything the least bit related to gold, since they could not be trusted ( again - THEIR claim; NOT mine).

I distinctly recall the mockery and vociferous criticism raised by many of the ringleaders in the GIATMATT crowd when referencing the reported holdings of gold in the ETF. They screamed again and again that the auditing process was "a joke", and could not be trusted as they sarcastically put the following words in the mouths of those who managed the ETF:


Do some of you remember this as well?

They cited the fact that the Trustee had no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust's gold as evidence that NO ONE COULD BELIEVE the REPORTED GOLD HOLDINGS in the ETF.

In other words, the GIAMATT crowd was reeking with disdain for any numbers coming out of GLD as unfit to be trusted.

Thus, they LOUDLY claimed that the gold was not there at all and that which was there was rehypothecated, subject to COUNTER-PARTY risk. This counter-party risk was something that they made a big deal about at that time.

Remember that other wild and popular claim that many of the gold bars were fake, being filled with tungsten?

All of their claims AGAINST GLD were to specifically DISCREDIT it as a viable gold investment vehicle that no one who really wanted to own gold should have anything to do with.

Here is the point - many of the same people who were mocking GLD back then and pooh-poohing the gold numbers it was reporting as its holdings, are NOW NEW BELIEVERS, NEW CONVERTS and have SUDDENLY had a REBIRTH of FAITH in the numbers coming out of GLD each day.

Now, some few years later, all of that Gold, Yes, the Gold that was NOT THERE in the ETF ( just trust us, the gold is there they said mockingly), the Gold that was rehypothecated, the Gold that had huge counter-party risk, and the Gold that was not really gold, but rather tungsten-filled bars is all being "RAIDED" and heading to the EAST to supply the insatiable demand from that corner of the globe.

I am not sure what world that many of my readers live in but in the world in which I live, this is what is referred to as hypocrisy. It is also one of the most egregious examples of illogic, inconsistently and blatant disregard for sound reason that I have ever seen in the arena of financial matters.

I guess these people who promote this sort of idiocy think we all have very short memories.

Then again, I suppose we should expect this sort of perverse reasoning when it comes to the gold cult. After all, this is just a sort of mirror image of the same "logic" that asserts that when gold experiences a sharp selloff at the Comex it is proof of "price suppression by the gold cartel banks". However when it experiences a sharp, blow your socks off sort of rally, that is normal, just, and righteous price action. Thus when it comes to the reported holdings of GLD, when they are rising, it is evidence that the numbers are bogus and should not be believed but when they are falling, it is incontrovertible evidence that the East is draining the ETF of all our gold.

Reductio ad absurdum perhaps???

To those readers who are actually serious-minded and are who are attempting to make fact-based investments or trades, rising GLD reported holdings are bullish for the gold price. Falling GLD reported holdings are bearish for the gold price. It really is that simple.

Don't fall for yet another hoax coming out of the GIAMATT cult. They see what they WANT TO SEE and not what is supported by the obvious facts. That is called "Observer-Expectancy Effect".

In closing here are two charts that illustrate perfectly what I stated in this last paragraph.

Here is the chart of GLD showing the rise and the fall in reported holdings.

And here is the gold chart:

Notice how closely the price of gold corresponds to the rise and fall of the reported holdings in GLD. Please note that I am NOT saying that there is a perfect correspondence in the daily price movement of gold in response to the reported holdings. What I am saying is that the general trend in the price of gold very closely mirrors what is happening in GLD holdings. When holdings rise, so too does the gold price. When holdings fall, so too does the gold price.

Keep that in mind when you come across yet another theory coming out of the GIAMATT crowd.


  1. Dan the problem is that if you are right no one will care, if you are wrong about gold you will be laughed at. My advice is move on and do what you do best and forget all about the GIAMATT crowd.

    The problem is that the more you go on about it, the more you look like you are pleased when the price of gold falls and the more you will look bad if there is a big (massive life changing) correction in the stock market and gold rallies.

    I cannot see the current political (FED, BOE, EU,) driven markets continuing to rise. Every period in history has had similar bubbles, from the tulip bubble to the south sea bubble etc. Sooner or later someone points at the emperors lack of clothing and all hell breaks loose. When that happens gold may well shine and then no one will remember the comments you made about the possibility that gold may rise, and they will only remember the predictions of doom and gloom about gold falling to new lows.

    As Charles Mackay stated:

    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

    "We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object, and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first."

    Just my view and I can see why you may feel the way you do about what has occurred over the last few years, but I think you are making a hole for yourself that you do not need to.

    1. David B
      I am touched by your concern for me and my hole that I am supposedly digging but may I suggest you leave me to write what I want to write on my own website and you can write what you want to write about on yours, assuming you have one.

      In the meantime I am addressing in a single post a fair number of private emails that I receive from people asking me about this latest convoluted theory to save myself a lot of my precious time instead of answering each email one by one.

      Gold will rise when it is good and ready to rise and not because some huckster with a bizarre sense of logic decides to call what is up, down and what is out, in.

      I also suspect that those who have been following my writings over the years will remember exactly what I have written and why. I warn against being married to any investment or trading position and gold is no different. When the chart says to buy, we buy. When it says to sell, we sell.

      But I do thank you for your concern although I must admit that I find it rather odd that you feel you have the authority to tell me what I can and cannot write about.

    2. LOL, I find it hilarious that people come on to Dan's site and then proceed to give him advice on what to post. Personally, I GREATLY appreciate posts like this. Someone NEEDS to stand up against these lies!

    3. In the communist era we get used to do by others telling us

    4. Dan, I agree with David B above. Leave it alone.

      You work up excellent charts and provide sound advice for traders. Your advice is free. I applaud you for that. In the case of AU, you have called the action correctly. I don't think anyone from the "cult" disputes it.

      Yet, I have an issue: you build a straw man case here (an argument fallacy) based on assumptions about that crowd that are incorrect. There are always a few charlatans, to be sure, but not enough to bear the weight of your generalized claims.
      I do not buy metals to make money. I am just an argumentation professor at a college, not an ex-Goldman trader who thoroughly understands how it all works. As a gold investor, I had the crap kicked out of me in 2013 and my pride and arrogance about being right is long gone.

      I think everyone in the cult are convinced the fiat system will collapse. That is a very different reason to buy metals. We were not persuaded to stay there after the big price drops by continued moonshot promises.

      If I were a professional trader, I'd pick a method and stick to it. I mostly stack (like many of your posters here do). If you want to continue your derision with calling us a cult, then call us an "end of the world cult" because that gets to the real issue.

      This disagreement is not about the price of metals or their trends, or about standing up to lies, or calling out hucksters.

      If we have different worldviews, we will never find common ground on predicting the future. If you believe the financial system is solid and will continue without any major collapses, then fine. But if you have doubts about world financial stability, why bash metal stackers who simply may believe the collapse is closer than you believe?

      And that raises serious questions for everyone on this blog: What do YOU believe about the financial system? Is it healthy? If not, can you click your Thinkorswim sell button before a flash crash steals your capital? I don't think I can, so I do not trade much any more.

      Its not about predicting the gold price next month, its about financial collapse. Keep your eye on the big picture.

      The gloating over here leaves a bad odor on your site, Dan. I'll go crawl back in my hole now... But don't preach to the choir and offended ex-cult members here-- mosey over to some other "neutral site" and post a comment with something sensible (rather than a cliche fallacy about quacking ducks) that argues why the system is fine and amateur traders like me can get back in the water.

    5. Jerome;

      I will put the same question to you that I put to the other one - "what sort of hubris would motivate someone such as yourself to somehow believe you can dictate what I write on my own site"?

      I have to gasp at such temerity. Then again, as I have said many times, the mark of this generation is narcissism. Only someone preoccupied with their own sense of importance would dare to suggest such a thing.

      Are you privy to my private emails? Can you provide the rest of the readers of this site the number of those emails that I receive asking me about the latest theory concocted by the gold cult? Do you believe that I have unlimited time on my hands that I can personally answer each and every one of those private emails/

      Then I would suggest you keep your trap shut and let me write what I will write and you can simply go "back into your hole" as you yourself stated you would.

      What "gloating"? You claim to be an argumentation professor. If that is the case, I sure as hell would never sit in your class nor would I allow you do teach my children. When the opposition case is stated and then addressed, that is how debates are done, or perhaps you are too damned ignorant to understand the scholastic method.

      For your information, you arrogant and self-centered scribbler, this is completely about rebutting false theories, wild claims and stunningly inaccurate prognostications and price predictions from assorted hucksters who prey on the unsuspecting, naïve and gullible. They go unchallenged time after time after time as each and every single one of their claims and theories prove to have been false.

      Apparently you have no problem with such distortions of truth or propagations of error. Apparently you also have no sympathy for the countless thousands of people who have had their financial ( and in some cases their personal ) lives ruined as a result of heeding the siren songs of these quacks. I do.

      no one at this site is a "gold hater" nor do most of us live under any illusions about our financial system. Most hold physical gold in our possession as INSURANCE against the concerns we have. But that is a far different matter than failing to look objectively at a chart and being able to see that the gold has been in a bear trend for some time now.

      Thankfully that has allowed those of us who trade to move out of harm's way and avoid horrendous losses. Those who follow the priests and prophets in the gold cult have been decimated. No, strike that - decimate would mean losing only one tenth. They have been obliterated.

      Again, Mr Arrogant One, have you read my private emails from people so affected? Since you have not and since you could care less about the hurt others have endured at the hands of these quacks and deceivers, I suggest you stick to indoctrinating students wherever the hell it is that is unfortunate enough to have you warping the minds of young people with your misguided views on argumentation. Leave such things to those of us who deal with the real world, and not in some private fiefdom such as your classroom where your informed novices sit in awe of your vapidity.

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    7. Conclusion

      I hope that by stating this in three simple points I have been able to clarify that those of us who support Dan's stance on goldbuggery are neither irrational nor bigoted in our views; that we are not "Gold Haters" or intent on ridiculing or vilifying other websites simply because we happen to disagree with their perspective; and that far from creating a "bad odor", Dan's site introduces a breath of fresh air into a sector of the market which is otherwise typified by ignorance, disinformation, and the Pavlovian exhortation to "Keep Stackin'" whenever the Master rings the bell by promoting the latest "End of the World is Nigh" story

      I have no time for the "if you don't like it here, best go away" mindset and I welcome a healthy debate: however, when this strays into personal vilification of the website owner himself, then at that point I think some kind of line has been crossed and the remarks are out of completely order. Nobody is either forcing nor charging you to read these articles, let alone to comment on them. There are valid ways of disagreeing and voicing a contrary viewpoint, but to my mind none of these are dependent upon or should involve ad hominem abuse and impugning the motivations of the website owner himself. Frankly, I think Dan has become increasingly intolerant of late, to the point of being fairly combative and borderline abrasive: it's his website, and therefore his prerogative to be so, and although I have just noted my opinion, you won't find me ridiculing or criticising him for being that way. We are all, after all, allowed to have our individual personality, just as we are each entitled to decide whether we wish to accept that and contribute, or conclude that our time is better spent elsewhere

    8. Jerome et al

      let me put this in a different way, prefaced by the fact that I (along with others on this site) hold a significant amount of physical metal and consider this as an insurance policy rather than an investment or a trading asset

      Firstly, the general concern - which I believe that Dan shares - is that a lot of nonsense and sophistry is peddled about Precious Metals - much of which is demonstrably wrong; examples include e.g. fallacious distinctions about the nature of Registered/Eligible COMEX inventory, Options strategies, the dynamics of the Gold:Silver ratio and the "empty warehouses" farce. A number of us share a common instinct to correct these fallacies as we see them BUT

      Secondly, what REALLY gets our goat is when such fallacies are promoted by those with a vested commercial interest in perpetrating such stories: typically they are either bullion retailers, or newsletter sellers, or in some instances just fishing for clickbait. When a bogus interpretation or flawed analysis is coupled with an undeclared agenda for presenting only the preferred side of the story, then this starts to qualify as Snake Oil. A good example is Mike Maloney at www.hiddensecretsofmoney.com who combines professional quality video production and a persuasive narrative with a persistent bias towards Silver in preference to Gold, whilst on a different but associated website - Goldsilver.com - the Bid-Offer commission which he charges for Silver is double that charged for trading in Gold. Whether deliberate or not, the inevitable commerical bias - coupled in that particular instance to a business model which is dependent upon sustaining transaction volume come rain or shine - vitiates the quality and objectivity of the narrative, and some of us fel strongly motivated to call that out, if only to protect innocent civilians

      However, Thirdly, it is the cynical and hypocritical nature of some of the narcissistic characters involved in the GIAMATT game that causes greatest offence (and I should note that Mike Maloney appears to be clear of this kind of conduct): there is a closed clique of self-referential promoters whose talents owe more to PT Barnum than to Warren Buffet, and whose professional backgrounds do not bear scrutiny: a failed Pensions salesman and Frozen Yogurt vendor (Turd Ferguson); a Sound Engineer (Koos Jansen); the Finance Director of a UK white-goods electrical retailer (Egon von Greyerz) - none of these people have any kind of track record in wholesale markets, whereas Dan and a number of others clearly do. These charlatans - for that is what they are, check the definition- set themselves up as self-appointed "experts" and thrive on developing a loyal clique of followers: Turd Ferguson is perhaps the best example ("Loyal Turdites") - to the extent of even having Silver Rounds minted with his head on them, but the same holds true of Mike Maloney: check out the bile I receive from an obsessive troll named Dame Edna's Possum on these threads: http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/blog/Fed-emergency

      It is this obsessive "loyalty" and the persistent exhortation to "faith-based investing" which really grates about these cliques, insofar as they seek to deny the possibility of any viewpoint other than their own: if the price goes down, then that is because the charts are "painted"; if the GLD inventory increases, then the Gold isn't "real" . It is this aversion to contrary opinion and intolerance of any form of challenge which characterises these groups as "Cults", and in my honest opinion more than one of them (Turds in particular) has outgrown the site owner's ability to manage or direct the discussion

    9. Ophelia;

      Thank you for the comments.

      If I have become abrasive it is because I have essentially reached my limit of patience when dealing with members of the gold cult. The vileness and extreme levels of hatred that my writings have provoked on the part of some of these people is breathtaking. I cannot publish my private emails but I would not wish some of the wickedness that I have received from them on even my enemy.

      What is pathetically tragic, is that every bit of this is over a piece of yellow metal! That is why I call this a cult - anyone who is that rabid over an inanimate object is possessed with a sort of mental sickness in my view.

      Many of them are obsessed with hoping for economic collapse, chaos and social unrest all so that they can see the "value" of their yellow metal god soar higher.

      Personally I hope we never have to employ the gold we own. The world that we would live in would be unfit to inhabit if we were to reach prices that some of these people dream of.

    10. I feel precisely the same way about the author of the software code for posting Comments on this website, only more so. Much more.

    11. Dan
      Don't let them grind you down. Your giving an excellent service here and the most of us appreciate you.

      The bugs are affected with a hopefully transient mental illness. The more vile their comments the sicker they are.

      The fiat system may collapse some day but placing big bets on it happening soon is at best misguided.

      Thanks again.

    12. Not sure why I came back. A little voice in my head...

      I came to your site and was respectful. (Though Harvey Organ may remind us all that this is not your site). I will maintain that respect.
      You dis me worse than I deserve, using me as the proxy whipping boy for the charlatans. Dan, this reveals your own character more than you realize..

      I admit they exist, and I could add my email to your stack. 50% of my hard earned assets are underwater--hardly an obliteration.

      I called nobody a gold hater.

      Must I conclude that rational discourse is not welcome here if the wrong questions are posed? Are fair questions tossed out because of associations? I posted under my customary username so as to be honest about who was posting here.

      In all my scribbling, with a few asides, I posed a question: What is the likelihood of financial collapse?

      This is relevant to one's asset allocations into risk-on or risk-off asset classes.

      Thank you Ophelia for maintaining decorum.

      Au revoir

    13. It sounded like he just acknowledgd that he knowingly embraces being involved in an "end of the world cult" vs. a gold cult.

      I'm a bit surprised by that.
      Take care Dr. J and good luck.

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    15. This comment has been removed by the author.

    16. Jerome;

      No, you could not "Add your emails to my stack" since you are totally ignorant of the abuse I have received from the crowd that you associate with. That abuse takes the form of the some of vilest insults you can conceive of. I have received this disgusting venom merely because I have read the charts and DARED to call gold as being currently in a bear market. When you stand in my shoes and start taking the incoming arrows and spears that I regularly do, then you can start calling my character into question.

      AS far as mr organ is concerned, I could care less about his site. This is my site and I will write on it what I want to write. That is what started me tearing into you. You have no right, no standing, no business telling me what I can write on my own site.

      That you would even dare to do so, speaks volumes of someone who is a narcissist. I do not visit the websites of those whom I disagree with and tell them to stop writing the claptrap that deceives and misleads so many others. Why don't you spend your time going to the sites of the ringleaders, priests and prophets of the gold cult demanding or suggesting that they stop what they are doing on their sites?

      Rational discourse does not begin in that manner.

      Secondly - when the trend in gold changes, I will change my tune on it. Get that through your thick skull and stop with the "advice" of what I should and should not write.

      If you think I sound too severe it is because I am sick and tired of dealing with people who have the audacity and love of themselves so much that they somehow think that they can tell someone who makes a living in the market what to comment on.

      As I said previously and say so now again - you apparently could care less about the ruination of those who have drank the Kool-Aid coming out of many of the these perma gold bull sites. Spare me the crap about reasoned discourse. Stack if you want - that is your right but leave off reading the markets to those of us who know better and who also understand that as PT Barnum once said, "there is a sucker born every minute".

      It is the not the suckers who I care about and who are oftentimes angry because they have lost so much money and are looking for anyone who would dare to speak negatively about an investment class that they are married permanently to - it is the sincere folks out there who are concerned about what is taking place around them in this financial system and are trying to navigate it successfully to provide for their families that I am concerned about.

      Perhaps if you were not so intent on defending the hucksters ( of which you seem convinced are just few in number) you might have some sympathy for the people being deceived by these quacks, who profit as their readers grow poorer.

    17. Hi Dan, Dr Jerome - just one point of clarification: by referencing Harvey Organ, I think Dr Jerome was merely trying to imply (correctly) that Google's Blogger owns & ultimately controls this site... Back when I used to write on Blogger, at one point Google temporarily shut down my blog for no reason, declaring it to be "spam"... it was re-instated after a few emails, but the point is that you're at Google's mercy.

      aside, I am surprised to see self professed novices like Dr Jerome criticize Dan's choice of topic on this blog. Let me be clear - the reason I write about (expose the ignorance of) the precious metals charlatans (and I believe Dan writes for the same reason) is *precisely* so that readers who lack expertise - like Dr Jerome - can see that the fraudsters peddling nonsense are in fact full of crap. You, Dr J, are precisely the intended audience...

    18. Yes, DPH, I suppose I am pessimistic about the future. "End of the world" is a hyperbole. I currently prepare for whatever outcome by striving to pay off bank loans and learning to garden. We still run two businesses and do the best we can in the meantime. I try not to get too negative about the future. Time will tell. I could well be wrong about financial restructuring and deep recession, but I don think so. Until then, Dan probably has a disciplined and effective view of market direction.
      Kid, yes I was referring to Organ's legal troubles.

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    20. Hi Doc...I look at it like this...things looked pretty bleak during the Great Depression and then WWII happened and humanity made it through it all and moved forward.

      While true that those who made proactive moves probably weathered things better during that time period I think a more important lesson might be that after it was all said and done that a period of relative growth and prosperity took place afterward that didn't look probable during those uncertain times in the 1930's-40's.

      I think sometimes the constant messaging we see and hear wherever we're choosing to read it sometimes amplifies those worries. Taking a step back from it all and questioning those who are certain of future events or who pretend to know insider info from others who also claim to know future events (with certainty!) is something that everyone would benefit from.

      Becoming debt free is never a bad idea and gardening is a great thing and smart. I used to enjoy reading your accounts of the progress (and harvest) you were making on your property.

      Take care Dr. J, I wish you well.

  2. Your comments about GLD holdings and price of gold make a lot of sense, but it is almost the opposite with SLV. SLV holdings have actually been increasing but price of silver keeps falling. See Adam Hamilton's most recent posting of 321gold.

    1. Rich
      Believe this was addressed last week.
      The two metals are fundamentally different in use. Gold is a store of value mostly. Silver is an industrial metal mostly.
      With a rapidly growing supply of silver byproduct from copper and other metal production and a stagnant or even contracting economy, silver supply is greater than demand despite the growth in SLV holdings.

    2. Rich;

      Mike answered that quite nicely. While demand for silver as measured by the SLV has increased, it cannot keep up with the increase in supply. Most silver is mined as a byproduct of other metal production. Big increases in copper prices several years ago has led to increases in both the supply of copper and the supply of silver and demand for BOTH metals has not kept up with that increase in supply - ERGO - prices fall. Economics 101.

    3. It is simple. It proves silver very bearish

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  3. Dan - you forgot the most basic cognitive dissonance these charlatans exhibit: falling GLD holdings are bullish for gold, and rising SLV holdings are *also* bullish for silver! EVERYTHING IS ALWAYS BULLISH!

    why is that we haven't heard one of these fraudsters comment on how SILVER IS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST - as it's withdrawn from the Shanghai Exchanges and deposited into the SLV trust!!! IRREFUTABLE PROOF THAT SILVER IS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST!!!

    don't hold your breath waiting for that analysis...

    1. Kid - Precisely correct my friend... Bullish all the time no matter what the facts are that stare them in the face. Some can be reached with sound logic and maybe, just maybe, some will read this and come to their senses and escape from the snares of the gold cult.

    2. KD: Silver moving East to West via SLV...that's a good one, and original at that.

      TD: Nothing I can add to your sentiments except that they echo mine lately on previous threads. Thanks for the effort.

      The quality level-headed analysis you provide here is unparalelled and I'm pretty sure you're being read and that it's having an effect on some folks out there.
      But as you know it takes time for some folks to deprogram and take a hard uncomfortable look at some things and admit they followed some terrible "guidance" from some hucksters who mislead them repeatedly and often only to then blame some invisible hand as the reason their price predictions didn't pan out as "planned".
      Their herds were manipulated to some extent for their own gain.

      It's about time the 'bug community hold their Dear Leaders to a higher standard and finally start asking some hard questions like...."Why were you cajoling people to buy silver and gold all the way down from $1900 & $48 and claiming there was severe shortages in gold and silver the whole time?"
      Seems like a reasonable question at this point.

      Empty vaults? Ha!

    3. It's all about the personalities of the people involved. The morons over in Turdland have a deep need to feel they are part of a "community" (they actually pay for it), which is truly pathetic, as their whole edifice will disappear with the click of a mouse if the shit ever hits the fan.

      Contrast that with trading sites like this, which are full of strong-minded individuals hashing out conflicting ideas with passion and conviction. Dissent is encouraged, and there is no party line to toe.

      The contrast could not be more stark.

    4. "The charlatan is usually a salesperson. He does not try to create a personal relationship with his marks, or set up an elaborate hoax using roleplaying. Rather, the person called a charlatan is being accused of resorting to quackery, pseudoscience, or some knowingly employed bogus means of impressing people in order to swindle his victims by selling them worthless nostrums and similar goods or services that will not deliver on the promises made for them. The word calls forth the image of an old-time medicine show operator, who has long since left town by the time the people who bought his "snake oil" or similarly named tonic realize that it does not perform as advertised.


  4. I don't know about "always-all-the-time", but every so often looking at COMEX statistics would make most people scratch their heads on some days.

  5. The whole argument regarding GLD is quite bizarre to me. Dan did an awesome job pointing out the absurdity to it.

    The thing about GLD is that it was a HUGE vehicle in providing additional liquidity to gold – which allowed massive amounts of new speculation to occur beyond what had ever been seen before. As ETFs came into existence throughout the early & mid 2000s, this newly found liquidity provided a vehicle for all kinds of speculation. Fist you had falling rates and the falling dollar provide an upward lift to gold early in the 2000s (off the Gordon Brown low of 1999). Then came the promise of emerging markets. Emerging markets became the next “great hope” and so then gold was being priced as if some massive amount of demand from the emerging markets would eventually emerge to drive gold to several thousand dollars/oz. The added liquidity from the newly formed ETFs helped allow this to happen – this was especially the case all across the “paper” gold universe. As we moved into 2008 with the financial crisis, FEAR became the name of the game. Human psychology and its extreme opposition to fear make gold an almost perfect candidate for a bubble that preys upon irrational emotion. Much of this fear was at first warranted, but the Gold publicists and gold bugs have taken this fear-play way too far. Gold prices have skyrocketed post 2008 largely due to the intense fear and uncertainty about the future of the economy and the speculation that we’re approaching a time of massive turmoil – with hyper-inflation. Given that fear was such an effective tool, it is still being used to promote gold. And the endless stories of “manipulation” are yet another example of how emotion is being used as a play against rational cognitive reasoning in order to bring about rash investments into gold.

    But what is truly amazing about all of this, is that the rise of gold from $250 in 1999 all the way to $1000 in 2008 --- and then from $700 in 2008 to a whopping $1900 in 2011 was in large part the unprecedented addition of the liquidity provided by new ETFs and other ‘paper’ forms of gold. THEY NOW blame ‘paper’ gold for the downward manipulation of gold – yet it is this ‘paper’ gold, in large part, that has allowed gold to rise 600% in 11 years from 1999 to 2011 (for the reasons I provided here). The GOLD/CPI ratio went from the 150 year average of 2.0 in 1999 to an incredible 8.0 in 2011. NOW, gold is falling – and somehow this is surprising to folks as they listen to these sermonizing calls of manipulation. If you look at nearly all of the reasons what helped drive gold up 600% over an 11 year period, most of those drivers are now moving against gold. Yet, manipulation is all we hear from those who worship their Golden Calf.

  6. Trader Dan, your patience, compassion, and willingness to reason with the unreasonable is the epitome of Christian charity.

    1. Will especially be true once Ezekiel 7:19 occurs

  7. I've struggled with this whole question of why GLD holdings are dropping while SLV holdings are rising. The best logic I can come up with is the fundamental question of "do I want to hold paper, or hold physical"? With gold and silver you come up with completely different answers. Or at least, I do. Anyone who has started in on a program of holding a meaningful amount of wealth in both metals (as I have), has quickly found out that holding physical gold is relatively convenient, while holding physical silver is a ridiculous, dumb ass, pain-in-the-butt sort of thing to do. If I've said it once on the ridiculous doomsday blogs, I've said it a hundred times, even in your worst apocalyptic fever dreams you can run off with your life savings in gold in a fanny pack, but if you are stupid enough to have it all in silver (mercury dimes for barter, dude!) then you need a wheel barrow and a strong back. Or better yet lately the back of a pickup truck.

    Perhaps it comes down to simple supply and demand. In terms of the supply of paper gold vs paper silver, my sense is that there are more options available for paper gold than paper silver. While conversely, the demand for paper silver might be relatively higher, due to the wheelbarrow analogy above. Less relative supply of SLV-like vehicles, and relatively more demand. Compared to gold, silver simply begs for paper vehicles, and rightly so.

    Full Disclosure:
    Sold my last miner share in Jan 2013, never to return.
    Sold my last ounce of silver in March 2014, never to return.
    Still have my gold. As Dan says, we are not really Gold-Haters here, just realists.

    1. Though it would be fair to say, I am a miner-hater and a silver-hater, lol.

    2. 100 troy ounces of gold, comes out to a little less than 7 regular pounds of material. About like a smallish dumbbell, though with relatively smaller size due to the density. You could jam that much into your pants pockets if you had to.

      The GSR is currently about 71.5. 100 troy ounces of gold equals about 7,150 troy ounces of silver. Or roughly 490 pounds, if my abacus is right. Yes, the pickup truck is needed for sure.

      Yes, paper silver is the only way to go.

      But hey, why be a piker? If you really believe in armageddon, why not keep all your savings in pre-82 copper pennies instead? Good luck with that. Hello, reductio ad absurdum.

    3. Hi EO...that makes too much sense and doesn't involve any shape-shifting reptilian heads of state that mean everyone harm. ;-)

      The bartering for survival items after some type of apocolypse angle on the blogs always made me chuckle.

    4. Could be merely speculative. If one so dearly wants to hold PM in his/her portfolio, he/she may want the one that is closest to bottoming. I hear SO MANY out there that think silver cannot possibly go ANY lower because it has fallen so far despite having industrial demand. Perhaps speculators are buying up SLV for this reason; after all it has hit rock bottom -- and no where to go BUT UP!

  8. "The problem is that the more you go on about it, the more you look like you are pleased when the price of gold falls and the more you will look bad if there is a big (massive life changing) correction in the stock market and gold rallies."

    Dan, remember this quote :

    Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

    "The problem is that the more you go on about it, the more you look like you are pleased when the price of gold falls"
    This is probably the stupidest and most wrong assessment I've read on this blog.
    Personnally, I've forwarded your link to a few other forums.
    Fortunately, majority of people still understand when someone is using rational logic and makes a point to warn that gold may go down further when it is actually the case, and already made a point warning about gold heading downwards from 1700+ when all gold bugs blogs were happily calling their followers to buy more.
    Thanks for the great job, let's try to share this thread.

    1. Goldman was screaming buy at the 2011 top

    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  9. Some good points made. Unfortunately, though, they were (typically) degraded by cartoonish straw men. (e.g. "Please note that every single one of these theories is ALWAYS wildly bullish and PROOF POSITIVE that sharply higher gold prices are imminent")

    1. Warfield;

      Are you joking or are you merely trying to provoke a response?
      Do you even know what a "straw man" is? I sincerely doubt that because if you did, you would not be embarrassing yourself with such an witless comment.

      Every single time I have refuted a fallacious theory being propounded by the gold cult that was yet another reason for gold to shoot higher, I have accurately stated the case and the argument being made and then gone about systematically disproving the theory by exposing the false premise behind it.

      If that is your definition of a straw man, we live in different universes.

      This crap from the gold cult has been going on for three years now all the while gold has been in a bearish trend lower with countless numbers of the victims of this cult being duped into holding onto losing positions and watching their life's savings evaporate. If you think that somehow that is funny, you are beyond sick.

    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  10. BUT Dan uses the GLD as some sort of western base physical demand mechanism.
    When u ask him about this
    He will dance around your question with pages of nonsense to prove his point.
    I've said it before please don't not use the GLD for western physical demand
    Because you are wrong.
    I listen to both sides as Dan does have some insight to events that happened in the PAST ONLY.
    But what you won't get here, is insight moving forward, as of course he wouldn't wsnt to be wrong and ding his ego from his followers.

    1. HDH said it best...."Never argue with an idiot. They will (ATTEMPT TO) drag you down to their level and beat you with experience."

      Nice try.

    2. @PP, it amazes me that you actually think crystal balls exist, and that people can foretell the future. That is just astonishing--and you try to make the case for it publicly, too...

    3. Alert, Alert, Alert ......Looks like we have a Goldtard

    4. Hucksters and some of their traits and tactics....


    5. If they are irrelevant
      Why do you continue to find and read and post their material.
      Why waste your time and effort.
      They must be threat. Seeing you are knowledgable in finding material that is against your views.
      Go buy some jdst/dust stock it's a lock.

    6. Irrelevant, maybe so.
      But my feelings on this overall is that they're some decent trusting folks out there (many of whom I used to extensively mingle with online) that are having difficulty seeing the forrest through the tree's and seeing the current PM landscape for what it is now and the past 3 years because of some sense of loyalty to their Dear Leaders who don't have their herds best interests at heart.
      In fact, these Dear Leaders routinely suspect and ridicule individuals who question their beliefs and then weed those individuals out.
      Alternative viewpoints are their nemesis.

      You can laugh about it but I'm sincere in those thoughts. I'm not trying to be right about anything and I could be wrong but it appears to me that some folks are more smitten with some PM personalities which inturn makes them hesitant to question someone they trusted who sells themself as some type of visionary expert.

      That's where I'm at in a nutshell. I've heard far too many instances of where decent, trusting and well intentioned folks are suffering from possibly purposeful misleading guidance that flies in the face of a 3 year trend at this point.

    7. PP
      GLD is not the level of western gold demand. Rather it is an indicator of the level of interest.

      Likewise SLV's holdings are an indicator of the surprising high level of interest there. It could be paper stacking or it could be " it can't go any lower".

      Keep in mind that the markets are irrational. TA is IMHO a set of tools that attempt to rationalize the the price action. It's still driven by people though and as such one can easily be right on level and wrong on timing or vice-versa. Thus it takes a huge level of hubris to make a prediction that gold will be at $2000 by 2015 or any other combination. Dan is wise enough and experienced enough in the futures marker where you need to right on both level and time to avoid this foolishness.

      Dan uses words pretty carefully and artfully. When you reword you likely distort meaning.

    8. My point is that in reading this blog, it's evident that dan has an agenda to bash gold when it's down and have all the answers as to why. That's pretty obvious.
      But to get his views moving forward. Not a peep.

    9. WRONG.
      Not anti gold, has publicly states he holds metal as insurance.

      IS ANTI CHARLATAN. If you expect a "gold will be $xxx by zzzz" not going to happen.

      Has openly declared a bear market and support/resistance levels. That's all you get. He is not a fortune teller.

    10. Mr. Puppet or Mr. Muppet would be better;

      This is a serious site for traders and investors looking to read the tape and understand rational arguments for price movements. It is not a fortune telling site nor is it a site that makes predictions. Professional traders do not make predictions. We react to market movements based on our understanding of the fundamentals and trade accordingly.

      You strike me as person infected with a sort of mental sickness that needs someone to hold his hand and tell him what is coming next. I know more know what gold is going to do next year than I do soybeans or cattle or wheat or corn. No mortal living knows that with any certainty.

      You will not find such things here so please just leave and take your agenda elsewhere. You are too emotionally attached to your yellow metal god to be the least bit objective. thus you are disqualified from making any sort of contributions of merit to the posters here.

      Stay at the website of your priests and prophets. You will be a happier man as you will find them in perfect 100% agreement with your views all the time since gold is always a buy for you, no matter what happens in the financial world or what the sentiment of the market might be at any given moment.

    11. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    12. Wow...what color is the sky in your world?

      Nice try btw ;-)

    13. I must say, I very much enjoy Trader Dan ripping these goldbug's arguments a part. Trader Dan might be annoyed by this - but he is VERY good at it! Sometimes Dan's arguments with these guys are MUCH more educational than the original post.

    14. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  11. Why people regard so much about gold in this 2014 which its volatility so low. It not worth trading gold this time. Instead you could trade SP500, euro, crude oil....more volatility, more profits or losses rather then arguing about gold bullishness. I thought only Asians loved to discuss about gold

  12. Where do you see the gold price in the next coming year?
    One sentence only please?

    1. I give up because according to Chart and Dan's analysis, gold and silver clearly bearish from 2011. In a bear market I do nothing

    2. It's clear to which direction PM are headed
      Because Dan has stated time and time again
      If it wasn't for ukarine
      If it wasn't for Isis
      If it wasn't for Ebola
      What is holding the price up now?

    3. I can see the proof on jdst and dust as there are all kinds of buyers in those stocks these days.

    4. EW...$700 would be shocking to many of us I think.
      Not saying it's impossible or disputing it but seeing your reply made me go..."Whew!" just thinking about it.

      Interesting times ahead indeed.

    5. "Where do you see the gold price in the next coming year?
      One sentence only please?"

      The problem with your question is that we don't care about it.
      It is irrelevant to make money on a trading point of view.
      If you don't understand that, you don't understand trading.
      So, the answer is : noone can answer that question. But it doesn't matter at all.

    6. @ DarkPH -- I know! But read the book "Gold Bubble" by Yoni Jacobs --> and you'll be convinced.

    7. Also -- if you read my (too long) post up above -- you'll get a bit of a glimpse as to why I say $700/oz. I am Not joking about this prediction.

  13. Dan is also saying via charts that we should be buying SLV because it is really that simple.

  14. Swineflue, birdflue, ebola, buy TRX!

  15. Is it a mere coincendence that oil prices are down
    qe is ending soon all around election time ?

  16. Sorry and a high dollar and a low gold price?
    Free markets right I forgot.

    1. I am very sure that the timing has been manipulated to help the reelection chances of the current ruling party. Not everything but some of it.

      It's quite obvious when action on issues detrimental to reelection of some senators is postponed until after the election. The misnamed "Immigration Reform" executive order being a case in point.

    2. Gold due to bottom on Monday (deviation +-3days) so gold would be down fast under 1200$ on Asian opening or up soon into Nov 2

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  18. all right let's get these systems up, 3 hours til futs reopen ES NQ CL GC SI HG EC et al ..

    better not haarp on this:
    The biggest sunspot on the face of the sun in more than two decades unleashed a major flare on Friday (Oct. 24), the fourth intense solar storm from the active star in less than a week.

    reaction to ecb stress test and brazil election said to occupy the forex reopen.

    $CRB index 4th consecutive down week, 18th week since June down slide.

  19. top drawer stuff a la Dan:

    ...out every sat. gold bug friendly, good overall:

    Managed funds extend corn longs 38K contracts to 127K while trimming soy short only 1K to -16K. Cattle on feed and cattle placement clock in slightly less than trade expectations.
    Goldman roll out of Dec contracts (starting Monday) expected to widen CZ/CH spread.

  20. It is coming soon and non of you can see it, which just proves that it is coming. Life is like a box of chocolates :-)

    IBM's share price, that is all you need to look at!

    1. David B;

      Enlighten us Oh Sage as to "what is coming soon? that NONE of us can see.

      If you are talking about a systemic collapse, that will show up rather easily on a price chart, thank you.

      Please however, let us all in on this secret esoteric wisdom that enables you alone to foretell the future with such clarity that the rest of us mere mortals may also be wise.

      It is evident that you do not trade for a living however, that much is sure. In your world, a simple price chart is obscure and opaque, telling no one anything.

      Excuse me Oh Wise One, for doubting your ability to read the future. I will stick with my simple price chart instead as I trust it far more than I do those whose self-conceit precludes them from understanding that they are others out there who actually make their living in the market and are aware of trends and shifts in market sentiment.

      Get a life and go watch some football. Maybe you can tell us all ahead of time, especially our pal Steve in Sparks, what today's scores will be before the games are over so that we can place our bets and clean up the bookies and quit having to trade in the markets.

      After all, IT IS COMING and NONE of us can see it. Help us all please we beg you on bended knee.

    2. H'mm...another chronic doomer outlook I see...and using a Forrest Gump line to make some type of point that implies a knowledge of a non-specified future event.

      Life imitates art. Forrest would be proud of you...if he existed.

    3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  21. ZZzzz....where will be gold in 1 year?...ZZzzz....should I buy now? sell now? ZZzzz.....

    Now back to T.A :


    If I'm a long-term investor, why would I buy gold as long as it remains in a descending red channel???

    Good night.

    1. Hummmmm
      1) Your a goldbug and your leader says to buy.
      2) it's at the top of the red channel , bottom of the bollinger band and might break out.
      3) your a cockeyed optimist.
      4) your a damn fool.

      Any other candidates?

  22. brazil crop to be large:

    grain open interest changes:
    Corn -8700
    Soybeans -34429
    Wheat +62
    Soybean meal -1203
    Soybean oil -256

    brazil election goes to current pres., so that deemed bearish to beans as some could have bought beans already as a hedge on the new regime.

    talk about nov beans going up 98, good ole chicago wheat went up 80!
    ...if beans drop away from 50-day MA overnite, then ought to bring more technical selling from the pit crowd. wheat more red would confirm the friday reversal.

    talk about fibs, the corn bulls say dec corn has to go to fib 393 from range 318-514, same fib in nov beans is at 1141...
    ...the lows of year were made in early october, so we actually do have 'october lows already' say the bulls.

    bonds opening red tonite, this will be very interesting weds fomc decision... last pomo is tomorrow so will usa QE really end and rates go up.


  23. Dan, you need a vacation. I think that you spend way too much time defending yourself via extensive writeups on this blog. May I suggest that you spend that time with your family instead? By now the case has been made exhaustingly and extensively. Life is too damn short. Take it from a recent cancer survivor. Be well.

    1. Why did you write that? Shouldn't you have been with your family? Why are you wasting your time here and writing that?

  24. Some of you might find this info source useful....


  25. Dan has had bad experiences with the likes of KWN and its nefarious gang members. He has insights into the way they operate that we can only half appreciate. His self-declared mission is to warn investors about their tricks, which needs to be done in a most forceful manner, by hammering it into their doltish heads, rather like deprogramming someone who belongs to some extreme religious cult, following so-called 'teachings' most harmful to themselves. As to his integrity and authenticity I have no doubt on this at all. This does not mean that he knows whether gold will go up or down in the future, he does not, and he admits it. But what he is exposing and condemning is charlatans who use fallacious reasoning to support an agenda highly beneficial to themselves, just as one might expose someone who pretends to read the future through astrology, ESP, or other forms of necromancy. I might also add that many of the arguments that apply to the gold cultists also apply to the S&P cultists, and the fatuous belief that the infallible Fed actually knows what it is doing and 'will save us all.' Capturing minds through engendering BELIEF is huge business in modern times, and it has little or nothing to do with reason and logic, which are its deadly enemies.

    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

  26. Dan,
    I am not a trader, just a casual investor. For the record, I applaud your pragmatism, expertise and your ramped up agenda of exposing the gold cult leaders.
    Ironically, I was made aware of you through some of these very same leaders/zealots/charlatans.
    Back in the first half of 2011 when silver was going parabolic, your writings began to emphasize caution and even an exit from the market that had obviously gotten ahead of itself. It wasn't what I wanted to hear, but I've been casually following you ever since. In the end, I can honestly say your work has helped improve my finances and knowledge. Plus, you're pretty fun to read. Thanks for helping me, and many like me.

  27. Hi All,
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    1. why don't you go peddle your wares elsewhere, son?

    2. If it sounds too good to be true.....

  28. Dan, I can't help thinking that one way out of this present conundrum might be to re-brand the website with a more catchy / more commercially-oriented title: let's face it, you invest large amounts of your time throwing Pearls before Swine here, and it's only right that you should be able to make a fair return on your effort

    After an exhaustive market survey lasting almost nine seconds, I have struck upon the perfect solution - a name which neatly encapsulates the appropriate sentiment, whilst opening the door to untold riches via Amazon:

    Welcome to "Stuff the Muppets!"

    and here is the commercial outlet through which to capitalise on the output: http://www.amazon.com/s?rh=n%3A166461011%2Cp_lbr_characters_browse-bin%3AMuppets

    My Invoice is in the post

  29. The problem as I see it is that all of you are all becoming so distracted by the gold hucksters, as they seem to be called, that you keep getting side tracked and trying to prove, (to whom I am not sure as we all know by now) that they are all wrong. Sooner or later they will have their day in the sun, as what is happening at the moment with debt and share buybacks cannot continue indefinitely. Zero rates of interest are not always a good thing if they are sustained for too long as they show weakness in the worlds economies and eventually that will hit confidence. In fact business confidence is falling rapidly in Europe and Germany's is now at a 2 year low.

    No I am not a day trader like you Dan, but I have been working/involved in the financial sector for over 28 years and I have a view based on my experience of what has occurred before, what I see happening now and information from various publications I subscribe to and have for a long time (no not gold bug letters) and if you do not agree with me that is fine. No need to shoot me, but if it makes you feel better. Not everyone with an opposing view is the enemy or a huckster they just have an opposing view.

    By the way nothing wrong with football, well the round ball variety that is :-)

  30. Yes you are we all are. It's sad
    When Dan warned everyone that the market was overbought back in 2011 because of price charts people hail him and say thank you.
    When you try to point out that something is oversold today, he labels you as a freak and a gold cult member.
    His emotions are getting in the way.
    You learn that in trading 101.
    I will probably get removed because I am being objective, which dan time and time again asks everyone to be.
    Look at the price charts dan and stop dwelling how many people lost money the last three years.

    1. I will probably get removed because I am being objective"

      I think you meant "objectionable"

    2. No, you missed it, Ophelia, he meant objective.

    3. Or then again, maybe you didn't.

  31. Is the Swiss Franc manipulated all day every trading day? How about the Chinese currency? If an entity powerful enough wants something manipulated all day every trading day it will happen until something blows up.

    It is silly to suggest that something cannot be when you have an organization like the FED which truly believes their balance sheet can get as big as necessary. I think traders want to believe in free markets but your not paying attention if you believe that markets cannot be constantly manipulated as currency pegs prove.

  32. I can state with confidence that no one here believes the following that wpparently was the takeaway from yesterdays conversation.

    "Apparently, if you think owning metal is a good idea, and say so, you are a charlatan now, even though many there are gold owners."

    That's not even close to what many of us believe or what TD or others have tried to convey. It's the charlatans that have knowingly or foolishly mislead their herds all the way down from $1900 & $48 while blaming some invisible hand for being completely wrong and making it up as they go.

    You can try to lead a horse to water but when the horse fervantly believes you despise all horses and that you dislike water yourself there's not much left to say.
    The point missed is this....it's not about gold/silver or owning it.
    It's about the wrongheaded handlers of that herd that apparently have some type of grip over them that renders them unable to see what many of us see or saw happen.

    Denial and loyalty go hand in hand at times. Purposely misinterpretting the charlatan theme here and what's been repeatedly stated is perplexing but not unexpected.
    At no time....ever...did anyone state that holders of PM's are charlatans.

  33. DPH

    I make no claims for being a Font of Clarity, but I had set these points out quite simply and straightforwardly in my two Comments above

    The fact is that these people hear only what they want to hear, and when confronted with an alternative opinion revert to denial as a defensive measure in order to avoid having to consider the awkward possibility that they might perhaps be wrong

    You probably cannot convince these people, but you certainly can ignore them, with extreme prejudice

    1. OB...you couldn't have been more logical or truthful in your attempt yesterday.

      Regarding your comment above. Bingo. To each their own.

      Having an open mind costs nothing. Having a closed mind can cost one plenty.

  34. Dan

    I am, I believe, a like-minded individual and have been honest but broadly supportive in my remarks; please trust me, therefore, when I say that what I am about to ask you is not part of an attempt to "have a go at Dan" or spark any form of controversy, it is just a coincidence that the following has come to my attention at the present time

    I acknowledge and respect that this is a forum for the sober discussion of Trading in general and commodities in particular, but I wonder what your views might be on the following article, and whether you are open minded enough to allow the link to stand?


  35. i find it cynical as hell that Dr. Jerome chooses to use his expertise in "rhetoric" to distort Dan's views, and to mischaracterize this site. and really with the Ayn Rand stuff? idiot. that's all i got Doctor of Bullshit. Geronimo my ass.

  36. maybe i am being too harsh. the professor admits that he is wrapped up in a doomsday cult, ... Jesus would show pity.

    if you are reading this Jerome, Jesus did not go run and hide in a bunker. nor did he blame the poor for their plight. as i remember he brought them food.

    the Christian right, at least the loud ones, turn people away from God. this was warned about, according to many biblical interpretations. and my logical Professor Jerome, do you honestly believe that Ayn Rand's philosophy belongs even on the same planet that Jesus walked on? God bless you and show please mercy.

  37. You can't make this stuff up....


  38. Seeing people twist almost anything into a reason why it might be bullish for gold seems desperate. Ebola good for gold?!?!

    And some doomers just lap this stuff up...
    "An ebola Armageddon could trigger a rebirth in gold and silver prices: Eric Sprott"

    The Gold Report | October 20, 2014

    Could an infectious disease kill the monster that has been choking gold and silver prices for more than a year? On the heels of a lively Sprott Precious Metals Roundtable discussion, The Gold Report caught up with investor Eric Sprott to ask how a tragedy in Africa could impact the price of precious metals and mining stocks. We also spoke to his Executive Vice President of Corporate Development John Ciampaglia about a new way to gain exposure to gold.

    The Gold Report: Deutsche Bank warned in a recent note that the Ebola virus could impact commodity markets, including gold and cocoa, as it spreads to producing countries in West Africa, particularly Ghana and Mali. In a recent article titled "Ebola, The Tipping Point," you mourned the unnecessary loss of life and predicted 5% less global production next year than this year. Could a lack of supply due to Ebola-related closures really cause the price of gold to rise?

    Eric Sprott: There is already a shortage of gold and silver in the markets....(cont.)

    1. Birdflue, swineflue, ebola, buy TRX!


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