"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Safe Haven Day ( Again!)

It sure is reminiscent of the movie "Groundhog Day" is it not? Stocks move lower, money rushes into bonds, up goes the Japanese Yen and up goes gold as a corollary.

Methinks however someone forgot to tell the  mining shares that this is supposed to be a Safe Have day and thus they are not supposed to be going down. Whoops!

After yesterday's bizarro-world day of trading, in which the markets reversed practically everything they did last Friday, I was not sure exactly what we were going to get. Oddly enough, we are seeing some more upside in the majors against the Dollar ( which is not functioning today like the usual safe haven it is ) as the Euro bounces higher away from the 1.250 level. Tomorrow should be the tell for if the pattern holds true, we should see the Dollar reverse course and move higher tomorrow ( by the close ). If so, the Euro will of course be resuming its downtrend. Maybe something changed but as of yet, I cannot see it.

I wonder what percentage of these trades that we now see on these wild days is due to carry trades being unwound. My guess is that it is a larger number than many of us suspect.

That is one of the reasons that the Yen always seems to rally on a "safe haven" day. as a funding currency, it is sold and the proceeds used to finance leveraged trades. When those trades are reversed, the Yen is bought back.

Once upon a time the carry trade was behind the move higher in BOTH commodities and stocks. More recently, there has been no carry trade involving commodities in general, unless of course it is to take SHORT positions, which is one of the reasons that gold has been able to move a bit higher during these unwinds. When those trades were implemented originally way back when, gold was bought along with every other commodity market out there. When those trades were then lifted or unwound for any reason, the commodity markets would sell off along with equities while the Yen, the carry currency, was bought and the trade closed.

I have no way yet of verifying whether or even how much might be involved in SHORTING commodities as part of a leveraged carry trade, but if that is the case, it would explain somewhat why we got a huge rally in the entire commodity sector yesterday for no apparent reason. Perhaps an unwind of a leveraged carry trade was occurring where the participants had been using borrowed money to SHORT commodities.

Again, I do not know but am merely trying to explain some of the bizarre price action from yesterday - some of which seems to have continued into today's session.

This might be partly responsible for the big rally in the wheat market which has run up some $0.40/bushel in less than two weeks' time. The chatter is that wheat might have fallen far enough to attract some decent export buying but at this point we have no confirmation of that. What we do have, ( or at least did have ) was a very large short hedge fund position in this market. They are now covering and driving prices higher. That being said, unless we get some solid evidence of good export news, it is hard for me to see wheat having too much more upside from these levels.

It would take two consecutive closes above the $5.20 level to change my view at this point that this is merely a corrective bounce in an ongoing bear during which a market is consolidating for a time.

Here is a quick look at the wheat chart ( note that this is Chicago) and not KC.

Soybeans continued on their unexpected tear higher from yesterday ( they put on 30 cents for some reason ) early in the session before aggressive selling showed up just shy of the small chart gap on the November bean chart.

Look, we all know about wet weather delaying harvest but to run the price of beans on the Board up over $0.42/bushel on that account was goofy to say the least. The beans are not going anywhere. They are still sitting in the field dialing their cell phones and calling their owners to come and reap them as it is getting cool out there and they are looking for warm homes beneath the presses in some processor's factory.

By the way, corn got sucked up higher by the big wheat rally today. SAme as the beans - the corn is not going anywhere. From what I am seeing in the weather forecasts, there are going to be good windows of opportunity for harvest progress this week and again next week for a good portion of the belt.

We'll see if the corn runs out of buyers tomorrow. yesterday and today appear to have been "Stop hunting " days.

One last thing for right now - the gold mining sector is just imploding today.
Look at the HUI / Gold ratio. It is now near levels not seen in FOURTEEN YEARS. One has to go all the way back to the very inception of the once great bull market in gold to see the ratio at this level.

For gold, it does not bode well.

In regards to actual performance today, the HUI is currently down some 3.3% with the GDXJ down even harder at 4.46%. OUCH! Truly that sector has proven to have been a nightmare, even for the most resolute of gold bulls.

Here is the most recent chart of the TIPS spread. Coming on the heels of the IMF downward revision to global growth, it sure makes sense. Inflation is not on the radar screen of most investors and is the last thing that they are concerned about. Right now it is deflation or slow growth that has them nervous.

I should also note here that the spread has now matched its lowest level of this year and is threatening to move to levels last seen THREE YEARS ago near the end of 2011. Here is the same chart broadened out to give a longer term view.

Sadly - there are still guys out there in the perma gold and silver bull camp - who keep talking up silver and attempting to rationalize it falling in price. They have all manner of elaborate reasons why the "paper silver market" is controlling the price of the metal which they assure us should rise were it not for the baddies at the Comex. Among the current novelties is that "something is up with silver because it has such large open interest". Yes, it sure does, and that is because a lot of people want to sell the metal. As a matter of fact, the short interest of the managed money or hedge funds as a % of the total open interest is near a 8 year high. The peak was in early June of this same year when the metal was near $19.00.

The only reason I do not know if there has been a greater number is because my data does not go back that far. So much for another goofy theory. Geesh - these guys never end do they?

Let's just say it this way - when the market begins to worry about inflation and not deflation, then some of these pitiful souls will have their day. Until it does, silver is doing what one could expect it do during a time of falling prices in general and oversupply based on current levels of demand, namely, it is moving lower to attempt to find a level at which supply and demand will be balanced. When it does the chart will reflect it - not one moment sooner or later in spite of all the convoluted, baseless theories being propounded.

Look at the VIX or Volatility Index ( or as I prefer to call it, the Complacency Index). Things do not look so complacent right now do they? The index is at its highest level since March of this year. Clearly there is some unrest in the markets and traders are not quite so confident as they have been for a large part of this year.


One last thing -the yield on the Ten Year Treasury note feel to 2.35% today. It is amazing how the appetite for Treasuries has not dimmed one bit and they continue to be the place to park money during times in which safe havens are in demand. Maybe this will change at some point but not for now!

It sure does make the lie out of the notion being sold by the current administration ( in the hopes of avoiding an electoral blowout next month) that the economy is doing great but you just don't feel it argument BS.


  1. Psychosis of Ebola will crash the markets? The black swan finally?
    (see Spain news today)

  2. short covering can be fairly hard when the items are down as much as these have been lately, a la silver 21.63-16.64, corn 5.20-3.20, euro down 11 weeks in a row, and many more with the same look. really commodities have been down since that high in 1H-2011, so shorts are packed in.

    wheat: Poor weather in Argentina, Russia & Australia is also being used as a reason for the rally. (along with short covering).

    The gold-silver ratio recovered from early intraday lows to close back above 70 and the 9 day MA (70.21).

    GC it's 9-DMA (1211.82)hasn't been a 1:30 pit close above in about a month until today, but then last print on globex is 1208.7

  3. What more is there to say about the miners that hasn't already been said?

    Anyone who does their homework will see that there is no part of any cycle where the miners will turn out to have been a good idea.

    1. I remember back a ways Eric when you had a very popular thread on Turdland because you were so successful with the miners. So I guess that part of the cycle was working for you. I also applaud you for getting out when you did.

    2. kjm,

      I remember you from back on that miner thread. Some good times there. Well, here's the thing. Back in the day, pre-2005, if you wanted gold exposure with just a click-click in your plain vanilla brokerage account, and didn't want to mess with storing physical, you had to buy miners. There was a captive audience, so to speak. Built-in "sponsorship", I think, is the term Dan has used. With the invention of GLD, that all ended. Look at that HUI/Gold chart Dan just put up. GLD started in late 2004, and the miners have been underperforming gold pretty much ever since. People wrote about that very thing, in real time, but it took a while for me to believe it. It's pretty obvious in hindsight now. The charts don't lie. Gold itself doesn't have exploration costs. It doesn't have egregious insider salaries and sweetheart deals. It doesn't dilute you to oblivion with an endless supply of new shares. The HUI/Gold chart is not a cycle, where now you can buy the bottom. There was a fundamental change in the relationship when GLD was invented, and the underperformance of the miners is a strong trend, very much still in force. Someday it must reach some sort of new equlibrium, but there's no sign of it yet.

      As for me and my miner thread, I put a ton of work into it, and did my damnedest to succeed, but in the end I was just swimming against a tide that was just too strong. In all honesty, the best call on miners I ever made was when I got out. A lot of people didn't follow my lead, and got butchered for another 60% loss from there.

      My advice, next time you want to play a bull run in gold, is just to buy gold. That's it, just buy gold. Physical or ETF's, whatever floats your boat. DON'T get greedy and think you'll make a better killing in miners. You won't. And if you want leverage? I don't recommend it, but if you do, just leverage gold itself. There are double or triple leveraged gold ETF's you can buy, or buy on margin. Steer clear of the miners.

    3. Eric Original;

      Folks who read here should print a copy of what you just wrote and tape it on their mirrors so that they do not forget it.

      Why buy miners with all that geopolitical risk ( remember when Chavez nationalized that mining interest down there), litigation from environmentalists, government shakedowns, empty holes, share dilution ( as you so ably noted), etc. when you can get leveraged exposure to gold without all the risks associated with a mining company merely by buying an ETF like GLD and margin it if you so desire.

      Life is about change and adapting to it and many in the gold and silver sector have never adapted to the change and thus are wedded to those mining shares until death them do part.

    4. Also, "back in the day" a lot of people didn't have futures accounts either. To the extent that futures accounts are more common today, there's just another reason why people don't really need miners any more just to get some gold exposure. Same effect, and same trend as with the advent of GLD.

    5. Thanks Dan. Keep up the good work.

    6. Dan, you and I have only touched the surface of problems with miners. Cave-in's, toxic spills, reclamation costs, astronomical up front construction costs, the list goes on and on.

      A finished Gold Eagle in the palm of your hand, or a share of GLD, has none of that.

    7. Thanks Eric Original. I also read that the miners are one of the most in-debt industries on earth. During the lending boom from mid-1990s to mid 2000s banks were handing out loans to almost anyone who claimed they were going to explore and mine gold. Now, that debt is killing them. I also read that there was a huge explosion in the number of mines that exist between 1999 to 2011. As the price of gold rose, mines were opening up all over that were not viable with lower gold prices (one of the reasons the average production cost has risen since 1999). Now that the price is falling, these mines are in huge trouble. This also created a lot of euphoria in the mining industry as non-mining companies started buying small mining companies; such as baby formula or taxi cab companies buying miners. There were a lot of crazy things going on during that long bull market in gold. And we have not even begun to talk about the explosion in labor costs among the miners since 1999 , as powerful labor unions in the sector have formed. If gold ever drops to $1000/oz, I’d say that the gold mining industry will be in deep trouble.

  4. “There’s no Reason to Panic” about German Miracle Economy is the title on Wolf's latest post.

    Like Dan says, triples are rare. So far gold's has held, but the Russell has seen its 1100 level pierced pretty sharply and is now clearly the weakest stk index and losers for the year. Friday's close will be closely watched I would think.

  5. it's too bad futures 'open interest' figures don't come out til the next morning, because they can show if the item really is just short covering. the ags open interest this morning just showed short covering, more or less.

    sugar was at 18 then went to about 13.50, and now has been going up about 12 sessions into 17.. can't rule out the sugar pattern in other items that got oversold.

    coffee had a bad day, though it was still an inside day or z-day off the +6% move yest. coffee could be a tell if the hedgies allow it to drop under that april top that it just broke out above yest.

    SPX had sellers also on the 10-Yr Note Auction and FOMC Minutes on deck for tomorrow (feds too hawkish when the world is too weakish)

    full moon coming in tonite while america is closed-

    blood moon lunar eclipse babeeee!


  6. Question Dan, you have previously pointed to the falling inventories of GLD as a measure of western investment sentiment which correspond with the falling price of gold. From what I understand the SLV inventory is increasing with the falling price of silver. How can that be the case...isn't that odd??

    1. Mad Max;

      I have addressed this in response to some posts such as yours but I guess that is easily buried down here in the sheer number of comments. I am thinking that perhaps I should actual provide an article to it but for now here is my thinking about the SLV thing you have cited.,

      Prices can fall one of several ways but it all can be distilled down to the following axiom:

      As long as supply exceeds the current level of demand, all things considered, price must fall.

      Here is the point - back a few years ago specs bid the price of nearly every hard asset to the stratosphere compared to what was the norm. Now what did that do to the manufacturers, producers, miners, etc. of those commodities?> Answer - it sent a signal to grow, manufacture, or produce more.

      Example - copper at $4.00 pound and higher was exorbitantly expensive. Copper miners attempted to catch as much of that money as they could and increased production significantly. What happened however was twofold - first speculative demand waned as the sentiment towards hard assets shifted. That removed one side of the demand equation.

      Two - global growth began to slow just as supply increased. That removed the other side. Result? Prices fell.

      Same thing applies to silver - the price at $50 was insane. Silver miners ( small guys in particular) tried reopening formerly closed mines, etc. Copper producers mine copper but silver is a by product of that. Result - silver production increased.

      The problem was that supply increased FASTER Than it can be absorbed by current levels of demand.

      Even though SLV holdings might be going up, supply of the metal is going up FASTER.

      For whatever the reason, it is evident that for silver, just like copper, supply is exceeding the current levels of demand.

      When the two balance out, the price will stabilize.

      For GLD, the demand is falling faster than the available supply coming onto the market from whatever source.

      To me it is real simple Max and I try not to get into the weeds with complicated theories or assertions - as long as demand does not keep up with supply, prices fall.


    2. Dan here are supply and demand figures for 2012 and 2013. If I am reading this correctly and these figures are accurate then there was a supply deficit in both years but the silver price went down nevertheless
      World Silver Supply and Demand (million ounces)
      (totals may not add due to rounding)


      2012 2013

      Mine Production 792.3 819.6
      Net Government Sales 7.4 7.9
      Scrap 252.6 191.8
      Net Hedging Supply -47.0 -41.3
      Total Supply 1,005.3 978.1


      2012 2013
      Jewelry 181.4 198.8
      Coins & Bars 139.3 245.6
      Silverware 44.6 50.0
      Industrial Fabrication 589.1 586.6
      …of which Electrical & Electronics 237.0 233.9
      of which Brazing Alloys & Solders 60.3 62.4
      … of which Photography 54.4 50.4
      … of which Other Industrial 237.4 240.0
      Physical Demand 954.4 1,081.1

      Physical Surplus/Deficit 51.0 -103.0

      ETF Inventory Build 55.1 1.6
      Exchange Inventory Build 62.2 8.8

      Net Balance -66.3 -113.3

      Combined supply net balance deficit for both years. There must have been one hell of a lot of silver mined in 2011 to off set these deficits to allow the price to drop like it did from the high in April 2011


    3. Max;

      think about how many people have made investment or trading decisions based upon those numbers who thought that there was no way they could be wrong and how much money they have lost by arguing with the market.

      That is why I am a simple kind of guy. The ultimate veracity of numbers is the price. The price disagrees with the numbers.

      Think about it this way - if these numbers were indeed accurate ( note where they are coming from - hardly an objective source) do you not think that the big money people would already know this and would have acted on it?

      I remember not too long ago when hedge funds were buying PHYSICAL CRUDE OIL and renting storage tankers offshore to hold it off the market while the price rose so that they could profit from selling it at a higher price. It was a great story and goes to show the lengths that some big monied interests can and will go to in order to make a buck.

      Same thing goes for the farmland craze a few years ago... they were buying up farmland across the Corn belt and holding it to sell it later as the mania was on.

      Big copper specs used to buy copper ( some probably still do ) and store it in warehouses in Shanghai to keep it off the market and make it look like demand was so strong that supply was dropping off of the cliff.

      If these numbers in silver were true, they would have been acted on a long, long time ago. All that would have been necessary was to buy enough of the stuff, tuck it away somewhere and then come in and begin an operation to drive the price higher. Then one unloads the metal into the mania that results and laughs all the way to the bank.

      We live in a society that is not moral Max and one in which money and its pursuit is the only thing that motivates some unscrupulous and unethical people. Anyone who believed this data was accurate would have already taken advantage of it.

      As a matter of fact, one could possibly make the argument that is what happened when these same hedge funds, who are now in the process of selling the metal were then in the process of driving it to $50 a few short years ago.

      You will never hear a peep out of the silver perma bulls about the "upside manipulation" of the silver price back when the craze took it up to those levels. Only when the price is falling does that crowd start with their chant/mantra of "Comex is corrupt and silver is manipulated".

      Someone who shorted the metal back 4 years ago would argue vehemently that its price was not manipulated to $50 by hedge funds as they were on the wrong end of that trade. So it is with the silver bulls - they are now on the wrong end of a losing trade and have been for 3+ years now and watched their net worth implode as a result. All of it could have been avoided by properly reading a price chart and that is a fact.

    4. Mad Max;

      that last paragraph should read that a trapped short in silver some 4 years ago would argue vehemently that "its price was manipulated by hedge funds" only it was to the upside.....

    5. Dan thanks for your response

  7. "Among the current novelties is that "something is up with silver because it has such large open interest". Yes, it sure does, and that is because a lot of people want to sell the metal."

    Do a lot of people really want to sell the metal? Or do a lot of people want to short the market for a profit? What percentage of OI wants to sell the metal and what percentage wants to short the market for a profit?

    1. Matt de Haan;

      You are obviously making a joke here are you not?
      I sure hope so.

      To answer your questions in order... YES; YES; EXACTLY 50% of them and EXACTLY 50% of them.

      Now, you can put that poor excuse for a joke to bed.

    2. And to think that at one time the prevailing thought out there was that there was an acute shortage of physical silver, the Comex would collapse, JPMorgan was "trapped" with a massive short position, Blythe Masters was an evil banker witch and a person named Winter Blue was being paid attention to by some.

      It seems so ridiculous at this point to consider some of the dramatic silver theme's that have played out that were embraced by so many.

    3. I must not be explaining myself clearly.

      My point is, there are more speculators in the market (who don't care about the underlying asset, only that they are up on their position), than their are industrials etc. hedging themselves in the market.

      That can't possibly be a 50/50 ratio and I don't think that is what you meant. And no, I wasn't trying to make a joke, just trying to make sense of it all. Perhaps this is the wrong place to try and do that.

  8. As the Fed keeps reducing its QE program, its starting to look more and more like there is no economic recovery going to happen.

    Europe looks to be going into recession now and the US will be the last to tip into recession if the Fed tries to exit its easy money monetary programs.

    No interest rate increases will be coming, instead probably more QE if the deflation/recession trend continues.

    The Fed is the economic recovery by the looks of it.

  9. I'm curious; what do you get out of bashing perma gold bulls. You do know that there are 4 financial news channels that have been perma bulls on stocks for 15 straight years, right? In my mind they are way worse than the gold bulls. At this point you sound like a senile homeless man yelling at the passing clouds.

    You might want to look into some professional help.

    1. jdsquicktrader;

      If you have read this site for even a short time and actually paid attention to what I have written, my reason is because the hucksters, quacks, inept clowns, flimflam artists and other assorted deceitful personalities that seem to gravitate towards the precious metal arenas have destroyed the financial wellbeing of a vast multitude of people who have blindly followed their wild and reckless claims and goofy market calls and other assorted predictions which led them to lose vast sums of their life's earnings.

      Also, if you have bothered to read this site for any length of time you should also know that I could care less what cult members such as yourself think about me. In order to care about criticisms that one receives, one must have some regard to the ones doing the criticism. Thus, I have no regard for those such as yourself who defend hucksters who ruin peoples' lives for gain.

      Lastly, please do send me a mailing address, complete with a bill for services, so that I might properly render payment for your expert psychological analysis. I had no idea that I needed help before your loving care expressed such. I am eternally grateful therefore that you so deeply care about my well-being. What a great feeling to be loved!

      Now, please go away and leave the site to those of us who are actually serious about markets and learning to be successful traders.

      To the rest of the posters here - please note the name for another gold cult member.

    2. jdsquicktrader; good thing you are the same as a mule and can not reproduce.

    3. I respect your position on the "hucksters," Dan, but personally, I actually enjoy seeing all these gold bugs lose money - even the mom and pop ones. Some of these people are so stubborn in their views the only way they will ever learn a lesson is to lose vast sums of money. The more the better. I not only look forward to the day when Peter Schiff declares bankruptcy, but also all the gullible people who continued to believe him long after it became obvious he was wrong. People get what they deserve, IMO.

    4. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    5. Another losing gold bug escaped from the mental hospital.

    6. jdsquicktrader - it may surprise you that some of the folks who lurk here are bullish long term on gold and that we do not feel at all "bashed" for our beliefs. This is a community which tries to identify the truth in pricing and which respects all reasoned opinions for or against an argument. Any "bashing" by Dan of gold bulls is not because they are pro-gold, but because for 3 years now perma bulls have been so wrong (damagingly so). I suspect that when we once again have a bull market in gold any perma-bears spouting drivel will be treated similarly. If you have any reasoned arguments to make then you'll be listened to but if all you want to do is vent then I suspect your time will be better spent in anger management. Whilst there you may want to ponder why it is that traders on the wrong side of corn, hog or copper trades similarly called out by Dan never feel the need to drop by with similar vitriol as gold bugs. What is it about the shiny metal which causes so many otherwise rational folks to lose their perspectives?

    7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    8. jdsquicktrader.....besides needing to grow up and pull your mind out of the gutter you've also fortified Dan's view that some of you 'bugs are cretins.

    9. Dark, he is a zerohedge kind of kid living in Mom's basement; like I say, "lots of 'em are just looking to lose"

  10. Dan, with the heavy fall in gold since last year, with the price of gold touching on the production cost at $1200, and the all-pervading bearishness, why have the miners not dramatically increased their hedging? Or perhaps they have, but there is little or no mention of this. I would have thought they would be very worried about the outlook, since if gold falls to $1000 say, many would have to close or suspend activities, unless they hedge.

    1. Peter Dykes;

      It is sad Peter that miners are often run by folks who fail to understand markets. Those miners who once hedged, and did it effectively I might add back during the big bear market that lasted from 1980-2000, such as Barrick were blasted by shareholders when the price of gold was rising and they were losing profits because they had forward sold a lot of gold at a much lower price than what the market was currently providing at that time. The uproar from shareholders was so loud that Barrick got out of them all. I think that spooked a lot of them into not hedging which was the actions of geniuses when gold was rising but once a bear market in the metal began, they did not recognize it and hedge or they were fearful of another shareholder pr nightmare and thus avoided doing so. One can only hope that some of them have hedged above $1500 or at least $1400 which will allow them some profits. Those that are completely unhedged are in trouble because they have no downside protection whatsoever.

      Maybe gold is close to a bottom, maybe not but it is a tragic commentary on the inability of mining outfits to run their businesses like some big ag interests who know how to properly hedge risk and offset it.

  11. Hello,

    Le long-term range on gold (1180-1420) is only reinforced by :
    - the recent bounce on 1185
    - the break of the very long term upwards support near 1240.
    For me the major resistance on the way up is near 1280, the downwards resistance of the channel visible on the weekly time unit. As long as it holds, I have a downwards bias for gold, most especially if it doesn't make it back above 1240, even more especially if it doesn't even manage to move above its ma20 daily.
    The more a horizontal support is hit, the more it is likely to eventually break, especially if you fall from lower and lower tops (descending triangle).
    Gold had better not meet 1180 area ever again.

  12. Draghi will be in Washington on Thursday to deliver remarks on the latest developments in Europe and global central banking.

  13. What is holding the price of gold up?

    1. "perma" bears like you and Dan....hahaha!!!

  14. Dan likes using charts and still can't see what is undervalued.
    His emotions are blinding the obvious.

    1. Lol. Delusional and unpleasant: we got ourselves a gold bug!

    2. and you got yourself a paper roach

    3. Yes, Dan is a real donk.
      I really wonder by what miracle he is still in this business.
      Probably he's the heir of a very rich family and he already squandered 90% of it by now.
      Obviously he can't see that gold is totally undervalued.
      He is so blind that this fool is going to remain short until gold is even more undervalued as long as the trend is bearish, and make a profit close to the bottom, maybe near 1000? And only then he will go bullish and buy gold.
      Can you imagine that?
      Instead of buying right now because gold is undervalued, he is stupid enough to make money on the short side and to buy gold later at a much lower price.
      I don't even know why we still come back to this site where the only purpose seems to be to make money, instead of being right and recognize value. How useless.

  15. Paper; Whenever I see guys talk about undervalued, overvalued, smart money, dumb money, strong hands, weak hands and so forth, I know they are underwater on their positions. How long and wrong are you in gold?

  16. Oh...and that denial last week from Vladimir was merely his shirt collar feeling tighter maybe?
    Russia Buys Rubles 3rd Day to Stem Slide While Shifting Band

    By Vladimir Kuznetsov and Ksenia Galouchko
    October 08, 2014 8:26 AM EDT

    Russia’s central bank intervened in the currency market for the third time this month, bringing to more than $1.4 billion the amount it spent to slow the ruble’s world-beating decline.

    The monetary authority bought $420 million of rubles on Oct. 6, according to data released today on its website, adding to almost $1 billion of interventions last week as the currency crossed the upper limit of its trading band. The bank shifted that boundary by 5 kopeks to 44.65 versus its dollar-euro basket yesterday, a level the ruble surpassed again today.

    The sales, which may top $2 billion with the latest interventions, underscore the price President Vladimir Putin is paying for his country’s annexation of Crimea and alleged support for rebels in...(cont.)

  17. ES, the E-Mini S&P found support at its weekly S1 value, 1926.25, as well as the 150DMA at 1926.50

    next year is the 3rd yr of a presidency, with the best record for upside of any of the 4 yr term, people loving this dip who want to invest around nov 1st.
    stock traders almanac:
    October Ends Dow and S&P Worst Six Months (2014 STA Pages 44, 48, 50 and 147), And NASDAQ Worst Four Months (2014 STA Pages 56, 58 and 148)

  18. hard for silver to go when it looks over at copper and crude oil so weak. china numbers last nite didn't change the 'weak world economy' theme.

    comex silver stocks at 183,481,297.120.. if you have nothing to do with the 'sludge' you dump it into comex.

    Gold derivative holdings GLD yesterday rose by a scant 764 ounces, while silver derivative holdings declined by a more substantial 867,938 ounces.

    10 yr note auction and fomc minutes 1pm et. cheers!

  19. The IMF's been pretty vocal lately...

    The IMF’s $3.8 trillion warning to the Fed

    By Steve Goldstein
    Published: Oct 8, 2014 9:00 a.m. ET

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A rocky exit from low interest rates by the Federal Reserve risks $3.8 trillion of losses to global bond portfolios, the International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday in its latest global financial stability report.

    The IMF was at pains to emphasize that it’s not forecasting such losses, but it did point out that tightening in the past has been a key trigger for declines in fixed-income markets.

    The IMF came up with the $3.8 trillion figure by assuming a rapid adjustment that causes term premiums to go back to historic norms and credit risk premiums to normalize, with moves of 100 basis points each. That would trigger losses by more than 8%, which could “trigger significant disruption in global markets.”


    1. and we all know who the IMF gets its marching unders from, right?

  20. Oil, gold and silver taking a beating right now in this bouncy maket.


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