"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Friday, October 3, 2014

Mining Shares go Negative on the Year

It comes as no surprise that the mining shares, as evidenced by the HUI and the junior-laden GDXJ have now gone negative on the year. The theme remains the same as it has for some time now - Western-origin investment demand in the gold sector is non-existent.

In an environment in which the US Dollar is King of the Mountain once more, commodities are being jettisoned and inflation pressures are collapsing, gold has few friends except for the perma gold bulls.

For starters, let's first look at the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index to show the impact from a strong Dollar.


This broad-based index just narrowly missed notching a 4 Year Low today! Let me note for the record that I fully expect it to break the support line on the chart. I just do not know the timing. The reason is based on the chart pattern of the US Dollar - the greenback may have moved strongly higher on the weekly chart ( and indeed it's rally is most impressive ) but on the long term monthly chart, it could move much higher. If it does, the same macro trade that has investors buying US stocks, selling commodities, and moving money into the Dollar in general, should continue.

I already posted a weekly chart of the US Dollar this morning, so please reference that. Here however is a monthly or long term chart of the currency. A push through 90, which would be a big deal, unlocks the potential for first a move to 92.50. That would actually open a possibility of a run to 100!


Needless to say, such a run would devastate gold, and silver.

Let's move on to once again note the TIPS spread which continues to plummet. As it does, so too does the gold price. Again, no surprise there.


A surging Dollar working to undercut inflation fears has sent this spread down to lows last seen back in June 2013! Given that backdrop, one could easily understand why Western-based investors are getting out of gold while they can.

Take a look at the reported holdings of the big gold ETF, GLD. Remember how popular that once was? Not any more! Holdings are down over 30 tons since the beginning of this year alone and that does not yet account for what was sold in there today. I will get an update on that for the reader when it becomes available.

Here is the chart. Note that the last time reported holdings were at this level, it was the second week of December 2008.


So, put two and two together, surging US Dollar, falling commodity prices, +  falling TIPS spread, and falling GLD holdings and is it any wonder why gold mining shares are being discarded?

First is the HUI. It has sunk below its 2013 ending level and is now negative on the year.




Next, is the darling of the gold perma bulls, the GDXJ. I find it hard not to be obnoxious at this point but I well remember, and I am sure most of the regular readers/poster here do as well, how we had to suffer through the crowing and cackling of those extolling the praises of the junior miners for 2014 as if somehow they were investing geniuses because at one point its gains were actually greater than those of the S&P 500 for the year. No matter that the index had collapsed from over 160 and was now trading with a paltry "3" handle in front of it. Nope, none of that mattered you see for they and they alone were the truly wise and savvy traders/investors who had recognized the "bargains" in the sector and were now gloating in their new found gains. One can only hope that some of them were actually a lot smarter than what can be deduced from their posts and that they actually managed to sell some of the useless things while they still had some meager gains left in them for the year.


I will have to beg the forbearance of my regular readers if have crossed the line and seem a bit too severe on them. After having to suffer through their annoying and arrogant boasting it is rather amusing to see them get their proper comeuppance in the markets. As said here many times, having learned my lessons severely in the school of hard knocks, there is nothing so fitting for a successful trader than humility. Boasters come and go. I have seen and known many of them over my career. Anyone can have an occasional good trade. Doing it year in and year out, over and over again, takes great skill and hard work with many long hours. The successful trade is a sort of reward in itself because you are in effect pitting yourself against others in the markets. Only one side is going to be right. The losing side ends up donating their money to the winners. That is just a hard, cold fact about a zero sum business.

When you lose money you either learn from it, become more humble, less reckless, less prone to boasting or you are soon a FORMER trader or FORMER investor.

One last chart for now ( I will get some stuff up later as I have a busy afternoon right now ). Gold

Look at the weekly chart and tell me if you can see the Triple Bottom. There is an old trader's adage that double bottoms and double tops tend to hold but triple bottoms and triple tops do not. We are going to see very soon if this is validated this time around. I suspect gold will not hold but could be wrong.



There are a huge number of LOSING LONG POSITIONs among the hedge funds and other large specs in the gold market at this time. I noted that several weeks ago in my analysis of the COT reports that those were underwater near $1220 ( some were under at $1240). Below $1200 it gets even worse. If $1180 goes, ALL of the new ones placed last year and/or this year  ARE UNDERWATER.

In order for them not to liquidate in wholesale fashion, it is going to take a tremendous demand surge based on a fundamental reason for owning gold. That does not exist at this time. In other words, this time around, a plunge below $1180, if it occurs, is more than likely not going to see a sharp spike higher with an immediate rebound mainly because Western-origin investors see no reason to own gold right now.

With hedge funds having an ability to play a market from either the long side or the short side, with gold breaking support, a large number of fresh shorts can be put on below that level with traders then looking for a resistance level to sell aggressively against.

If the triple bottom does not hold, I do not see much in the way of downside support until 1150 with a fall to $1100 then not out of the question.

We will just have to watch and see what we get.

As a side note, I have just glanced at the COT reports and they indicate what has been obvious for some time, traders are selling the metals. more on that later....





165 comments:

  1. KWN and jsmineset will go down in history as offering the absolute worst investment advice EVER.

    Gold will bottom around $250 when all of these gold-pushing websites are shut down and the U.S. Dollar is back up to its previous all-time highs.

    On top of the specs who are still long gold, there will be added pressure on bullion when Sprott, Peter Schiff, Matterhorn, etc. end up self-liquidating as investors who bought gold over $1,200 the last 2 years realize their mistake and start selling.

    By the way, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are within a hairsbreadth of new highs.

    Poor Jim "T-Shirt" Willie is now scrounging around for food scraps near his mud hut in Costa Rica.

    Thanks again to Dan for calling the top in crude oil almost to the day, and by default. also calling the top of one of the fastest, steepest, declines in the CRB Index ever recorded.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i dont know about $250 lol...maybe $700 - $1000 lowest possible...250 is pushing it...but other than that i concur with ur comments

      Delete
  2. Both DJIA and Dow Transports are within 2% - 3% of world record highs despite all the problems in FX markets lately.

    Poor Richard Russell must be getting blasted by his subscribers for keeping them out of U.S. stocks the last 2 years and recommending GDX and GDXJ which are now down 50% since he recommended it.

    Poor guy, very sad to see a 50+ year career end with such huge embarassment.

    ReplyDelete
  3. will get back to it sunday pre-open... but a few items just to move em out:
    beans:
    This afternoon’s COT showed the spec funds took some profits and reduced its short position thru Tuesday, Sept 30
    reducing last week’s record net short
    position by almost 7,500 contracts.
    The commercial hedger bought a bit of beans with short position increasing by 19.1 million bushels but still holding an unseasonal near record net long
    position. The small trader was only reportable adding to positons last week
    increasing net short position to fresh record
    131,858 contracts.
    corn: The COT report has the funds adding 9,000 to their net long position.
    wheat: blurbs all week have menitoned support from record net short chicago-
    The COT report, including option, as of Sept 30, indicates funds were net buyers in Chicago and KC, while offering Mpls.
    The Chicago position is still very close to a record net short.
    moo-moo: CME Group Announces Reduced Electronic Trading Hours for CME Livestock Products in Response to Customer Feedback -

    TGIF!

    ReplyDelete
  4. great 'tax break' for usa consumers with CL closing <90 along with drops in unleaded gas and heating oil!

    The gold-silver ratio continues to consolidate around 71 following its third consecutive weekly rise. The ratio is just shy of 71.77, a level that represents the 76.4% Fibo retracement level of the
    October 2008 - April 2011 decline.

    Jan #Feeders have been on the board 35 weeks. Only 5 of those weeks they have had a weekly lower close. (Btw, this week won't be one) thanks Dan u da man!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dan , I remember when you were urging the miners to hedge.

    Now with the juniors - If I understand the workings of these things.An exploration company has exploration rights on a property to search and drill for metals. They need constant funding to keep operational. Highly speculative. With gold likely starting a new leg lower, who will be handing over money to these companies.? So these companies could be going to zero anytime soon.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Janet - If I may step in. You're right, But depends on the junior. Some companies, Like Tower Hill Mines break even at only $1,500 gold (as I recall). Tanzanian Royalty had an NPV(5) for the Buckreef complex of $81 million at $1,300 gold (Aug 2012 Tech report), with no discount for project risk, etc. Gold is $100 less, its Mkt cap is $180 million + the company has very little cash (probably under $3 million) and Cap Ex/Sustaining requirements of $75 million (ballpark given similar mines). Plus pretty much all miners need to pay lease fees to keep claim active. Those are going to be pink sheet fodder in no time.

      Osisko was bought out because it had a large, high grade deposit in a good jurisdiction. Pretivm resources was able to raise $7million six weeks ago (at nearly double the current share price).

      Pick your battles?

      That said, DUST is probably the easiest way to get a basket of miners

      Delete
    2. Janet;

      You know what is so sad - that even though I strongly advised hedging for gold miners with actual production, I sincerely doubt any of them actually did so. I have had a few ( not many ) emails from some in that industry in the past asking about hedging but so many in the mining industry are ROTTEN at reading price charts and understanding trends within their own industry. If they had hedged, their profits would have been locked in and they would have been safe. Instead too many of them have now lost huge profit potentials.

      When it comes to equities however, I must defer to the posters here as I am a commodity guy. MDLGTO is excellent when it comes to understanding mining companies.

      Delete
  6. The consumer is rejoicing because of the huge collapse in gasoline prices combined with the biggest, fastest, steepest rise in "King Dollar" in recent history.

    Imagine the utter glee as Joe Six fills up his F-350 truck and goes to the grocery store to see lower and lower prices.

    Its no accident that XLY and XRT are trading near record highs and the offshore oil drilling stocks are trading near 2009 lows.

    There has never been a time I've seen where the seeds are now being sown for one of the biggest consumer spending bonanzas ever.

    Christmas season this year will be one for the record books for most retailers.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dan, once again your technical analysis is spot on, however you might want to dial back from comments like "today's surprisingly strong jobs report" in your earlier post since it unfortunately undermines you message. For example the underlying data of the jobs report sucks.

    Labor participation rate drops to the lowest in 36 years
    4 out of 5 jobs created are minimum or low wage
    230k jobs created were for 55 to 69 year-olds
    No job growth for 25 to 54 year-olds
    wage growth flat.

    Unfortunately, the CNBC talking heads drooling over the headline numbers as usual really does not change the fact that the US has significant structural problems.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with Mad Max. Sometimes TD acts like the mainstream media, trying to explain or justify every little move in a market by the minute.

      Housing sucks, hourly wage sucks (been that way for decades), debt accumulation only goes up, corporate taxes suck, cities defaulting on pension plans is just beginning. Orders were already placed and filled in July for Xmas buying projections, watch Walmart floor displays and its share price for a clue if they bet on consumer sentiment correctly this year.

      Armstrong called the US$ and US markets from jail years ago. A natural progression of where money goes when there is only one economy able to maintain any semblance of stability. Probably due to oil and food production with no wars within its borders.

      Is there any reason the Euro shouldn't go to par? Name one reason it shouldn't ( an all inclusive example of why bankers can't micro manage economies when the basic fundamentals are all wrong).

      Gold and miners still trending down. A bear market is reached when the sell off ends and there is no longer any room to trade as a bear bounces along the bottom in a narrow trading range. Gold still has room to short now and long later. In the 4s for gold and silver would enter a long term bear market for them. Until then, there is still money to be made long or short. Capitulation and consolidation in the sector will mark the end the of down trend before 2016 arrives. Gold will begin to climb as the US$ reaches its highs, probably new highs. Then the US$ falls away and gold and silver will continue on up. Why? For two reasons, cycles and fundamentals.

      Delete
    2. Nice job repeating all the Zero Hedge talking points. Sadly, that particular skillset has led to nothing but investment losses for years now.

      Delete
    3. TD can speak for himself but...
      I am sure he drills down to U6 and sees the core rate at 12% and the absymal participation rate.
      Believe his remark reflects the headline number running the market (perception).

      BTW Kudlow immediately drills down to U6 and participation. Although I find his manner offensive he is not just a cheer leader.

      Delete
    4. Mad Max;

      Keep in mind that I think and act like a trader around markets. I for one do not believe that the jobs reports reflect a truly underlying strong economy for one minute. But it is not important what I personally believe - it is WHAT THE MARKET believes and as far as the broad market is concerned, the number was a big surprise.

      Also, keep in mind that we live in a shallow generation. Very few will ever bother to read beyond the headline number.

      Perception, Max, that is what drives markets. Not necessarily reality.

      Good traders learn to let go of their own views and opinions and interpret the opinion driving the markets that they trade in. Don't forget this if you want to be successful at this very difficult occupation.

      Delete
    5. The U6 rate, much ballyhooed by doomsayers everywhere, is now the lowest since Lehman. So it depends on who/what you read.

      Dan's advice is the best. Your opinion or my opinion or ZH's opinion or CNBC's opinion matters naught. It is the verdict of the market that we need to trade with.

      I like to boil things down to bullet points. The lesson here is "Ignore the news, watch the charts."

      Delete
    6. As Josh Brown noted, "Losers will crawl out of their coffins and crypts to whine about the labor force participation rate, but no one cares."

      And that's the point. What he means is that the market does not care. You, Dan, and I might care a great deal in a human sense, but the market itself does not care in an investment sense. If you insist on trading against that, you'll get buried.

      http://thereformedbroker.com/2014/10/03/a-goldilocks-nfp-report/

      Delete
    7. If you look at the average number of BLS NFP produced this year, it is the BEST since the mid/late-1990s. ZH will never tell you that, now will they. We are not experiencing a 1980s style boom, but relative to most other major economies, America is doing GREAT! That is what the market is caring about. DON"T under estimate the power of having manufacturing jobs come back to US shores from China. OR the fact that America is on pace to become the world's leader of energy exports by year 2020. These things are huge. Besides, like Eric Original says, the market is Always right - why fight with it? Who would buy gold because the participation rate went down? Who is that dumb?

      Delete
  8. Structural problems? Really?

    I guess that's why the world's biggest institutional investors are buying U.S. Dollars with the utmost urgency and dumping every other currency.

    The market is smarter than all of us, and the market today loved the jobs report.

    Poor John "Big Mac" Williams is another poor guy who is battling defections and is reeling from the impact of very poor observations and failed forecasts.

    The market is telling me that we are experiencing exactly the same setup as 1998 - 2000, where commodities are being dumped en masse and buying U.S. stocks, as we enter another glorious age of zero inflation, cheap money, improving standard of living, and surging 401(k) accounts.

    Janet will not only keep tapering, but will start unloading excess items from the Fed balance sheet after October and may start raising interest rates a little.

    That is going to be a huge boom for the regional banks, which I expect to be a top performing sector from here on out.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Mark,you totally missed my point. The idea that the US is the best looking horse in the glue factory and is where investment money is flowing, does not change the fact that the US has serious structural problems. I realize that you have a difficult time understanding that, so I will leave it at that.

      Delete
    2. Mad Max, Mark does not seem to realize the US has 18 trillion in national debt and is as bankrupt as Japan and Europe are.

      Do the math on financing 18 trillion with higher interest rates Mark.

      The dollar would probably collapse in value if interest rates were ever be normalized due to the hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments that would be added to the deficit.

      Same goes for Japan and Europe. A few token rate hikes at best with this much debt.

      Delete
    3. yep , everything is fab .... deflation plus a stronger USD at decimated interest rates , that sounds great for speculators , and for whomever has USDs , unfortunately it is becoming a rare commodity for the average folk in Amerika , like Obama would say ...

      No middle class , savers with no income , but hey , lots of jobs at Mcdonads , and pretty soon they will be paying them with very cheap hamburgers ... very promising indeed Mark ... the land of the free , the land of the opportunity , the american dream ... that may have been about right back in the 60s when the US had half the population and no debt .

      Delete
    4. OK, ZH lovers, Mad Max and Barney the purple dinosaur. The US debt is 'bad' indeed, but it is from an economic freedom standpoint. It is not a DISASTER! It reduces the amount of economic growth that we can enjoy year after year, but does not eliminate it . YOU GREATLY underestimate the economic might of America. Between the US government assets and the amount of oil/natural gas in the ground, you are talking WAY over $500 trillion – overwhelming any debt that is currently held (You also have to understand that not all of that debt is foreign held – which is about $6 trillion)). The coming American energy revolution is going to be super huge – something ZH will never tell you about. There are many ways in which energy is a game changer. The ability of the United States to add “energy superpower” to its long list of superlatives — agricultural superpower, technology superpower, demographic superpower, entrepreneurial innovation superpower etc — has a huge amount of embedded economic value. What all of these pessimists have consistently underestimated, or overlooked completely, is the net value of American wealth as juxtaposed against American debt… and in respect to physical and intellectual assets, not to mention agricultural and energy assets, the United States is the richest country in the history of the world, perhaps by a factor of ten. The Federal Reserve may be run by bumblers and Washington populated by fools, but the core strength of the US economic position is so strong, not even the bumblers and the fools could truly dent it. ZH will tell you the opposite – like a bunch of hippies freezing their butts off as they protest global warming.

      Delete
    5. Eric Webber;

      That is simply an outstanding set of points that you raise here. Very well stated.

      I think it was Adam Smith in "The Wealth of Nations" who wrote that a "nation has a great deal of ruin in it" or it might be " a nation has a great deal of hurt in it" or harm or something... I cannot remember the quote exactly but what he was referring to is the ability of a powerful nation with a powerful economy to absorb a lot of harmful events and hurtful policy and still manage to prosper. He was speaking of the dynamism of capitalism.

      You are making the same essential argument with your points. Think about how utterly harmful the policies of the current administration have been to the US economy and how in spite of it, it is still managing to somehow grow. Not that growth is that dynamic but as you have said, compared to many places around the world, it is certainly much better. Also, if we ever do get a business friendly administration, one that implements business friendly policies, it would do a world of wonder towards increasing growth and providing some solid jobs and opportunities for our fellow citizens.

      Delete
    6. Barney the purple dinosaur here Eric.

      Lots of good positive points you make above.

      Figuring growth depends on these ultra low interest rates remaining in place though,

      as with the amount of debt out there now nothing will stunt growth like higher financing payments on huge debt.

      Delete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Here is a very specific prediction and vision of how this pans out from The Turd below.

      The funniest almost surreal part is where he believes and attempts to take credit for something everyone here has known for months.
      Does he expect those folks over there to not realize he has basically taken what TD has been saying for awhile and is using it like he knows something that no one else realizes???

      He 's like a modern version of Mr. Haney that's hopped aboard the deflation bandwagon and talk as though he's been ahead of the curve the whole time.
      Is he serious? This is smply laughable!
      Where was this type of (cough!) "analysis" the past 2-3 years?
      He's living in some disconnected fantasyland at this point hoping no one says a word...just like the attempted ( and thwarted) plagarism recently.

      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

      "IF I'M RIGHT ABOUT THIS, things are going to get even worse before they get better. Why?

      Because hardly anyone else is talking about it! By the time the world outside of Turdville finally figures out what's going on, the stock market will be crashing, crude will be near $80 and the metals will be even lower, particularly silver.

      The point is this:

      As things begin to unravel in October and November, The Fed will be forced to act.

      Remember, their primary stated mission is prompt employment and inflation. Deflation is their number one enemy and they will do anything (and this includes QE4) to avoid it! After or slightly before this deflationary bias finally runs its course, all of the "dollar-based commodities" listed above will bounce, turn and rally back higher....(cont)"

      Hey, maybe Turds been lurking here and learning a thing or two....but NEEDS to act like he's frontrun everyone else on it.
      Does he really think no one's noticed his tendency to claim some type of exclusive knowledge that no one else or few realize besides himself?

      Fantasyland must be a grand place to reside in. That place is called Turdville.

      Delete
    2. DPH;
      Mr. Hemke and his stupid hat would make a perfect politician. His "convictions" shift with the wind and he has an uncanny ability to forget his own past. In his case, he has been among the chief cheerleaders for backwardation, JP Morgan long gold corner, Mr. "gold insider" maquire, and every other goofball gold theory out there including constant manipulation by the evil gold cartel. etc. How in the world he managed to attract an audience to his worthless claptrap is a testimony to the gullibility of the generation in which we live.

      In a different day and age, in a different era, where men had memories, he would have been laughed off the stage and forgotten a long, long time ago. I hope that perhaps that day is not that far off. Another huckster extraordinaire.

      Delete
    3. Yes, he is indeed a serial loser. The list of get-rich-quick schemes he has been associated with is long.

      The post that got me banned over there was one in which I ridiculed his assertion that the bullion banks would be bankrupt by the end of 2014. That is literally what he said. Nor was this some foolish passing comment of his, but the subject of one of his blog threads, where he confidently predicted to his knuckle dragger subscribers (which I calculate to be ~30-40...) that these massive institutions would literally cease to exist by the end of this year. This was such an outrageous lie that I called BS on it in no uncertain terms (among many others challenges over the months), and I think he just couldn't countenance the challenges any more--but why that particular one touched such a nerve, I have no idea.

      He, and his pathetic cast of petty grifters (Jim Willie ??!? the man is a szichophrenic street person, for God's sake...) should all be fodder for some entreprising attorney to go after. Threats to their personal livelihood would shut them all up, right quick.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. He's painted himself into a corner with his latest specific predictions.

      When it doesn't pan out what will the excuse or new scenario be then?
      Can-kicking at it's finest while hoping no one remembers or calls him out on it.

      Kind of funny how all the BTFD's over the previous months/years from Turd were meaningless and wrong bits of advice if you compare it to his latest prediction above that prices will continue to go lower.

      Willie does the same thing and lives in a dark fantasyland where he made some very specific predictions not that long ago that he's now making excuses for.
      Same for Sinclair and all the other KWN PAID POSTERS under contract there.

      They've been stringing everyone along the whole time and hoping their fan club just keeps sucking it up.

      Delete
  10. WIth a bear market ongoing for 3 1/2 years are we closer to the top or to the bottom? Me thinks the later due to the time factor and extent of the decline. Many mines will close if prices stay at this level very much longer as they are below all-in costs and some are now below production costs. A bear market is a herald of bad news and the bad news usually comes out around the lows or at them. The bad news being mine closures and a few big business failures.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What's holding the gold price up then??
      3 1/2 year decline??

      Delete
    2. The steady stream of newbies reading gold bug sights that the market depends on who haven't learned their lesson....yet.

      Delete
  11. Denial is the first step in recognizing a major problem is close at hand.
    A tanking ruble and sinking oil prices is a problem for Russia.

    ~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~
    "Putin Rules Out Capital Controls as Russian Outflows Grow"

    By Ilya Arkhipov
    October 02, 2014 7:08 AM EDT

    President Vladimir Putin joined the central bank in ruling out measures to hinder the accelerating flow of money from Russia after speculation that policy makers are weighing the possibility of capital controls sent the ruble to a record low.

    “We don’t plan to introduce currency restrictions or restrictions on the movement of capital,” Putin said today at a Moscow investment forum organized by VTB Capital.

    His comments echo central bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, who earlier told the same conference that speculation policy makers are considering limits on capital movements is “absolutely baseless.” The bank is weighing the introduction of temporary capital controls if the flow of money out of the country intensifies, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

    What Are Capital Controls?

    Putin is fighting to rein in capital outflows, which are forecast to reach $100 billion this year compared with $61 billion in 2013 as sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine prompt investors to sell Russian assets. The country hasn’t had a net inflow of private capital since 2007, the year after it lifted restrictions.

    The ruble sank 14 percent against the dollar in the three months ended Sept. 30, the worst quarter since 1999 and the biggest drop among global currencies monitored by Bloomberg.....(cont.)
    Bloomberg.com

    ReplyDelete
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    1. DarkPurple, so I guess this pretty much trashes the bullshit arguments of the pm bulls about more and more trade being done in rubles and yuan and so forth. It also puts the lie to Putin being some kind of strategic chess player while the rest of the politicians are playing chess. Last but not least, once they deny something, it is SURE to happen, and I will bet anyone $$$$'s to doughnuts that capital controls are enacted < yearend.

      Delete
    2. meant checkers for the rest of the politicians

      Delete
  12. I think its hilarious that no matter how hard Putin tries, the U.S. Dollar keeps accelerating harder upward and crude oil crashes even faster.

    In fact, if Putin would just keep his mouth shut and pull out of Ukraine, things would turn back to normal.

    Right now, the market is cleaning his clock.

    Russian will go broke if this keeps up, just like the last time.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I'm starting to feel sorry for the gold bugs, but you have to admire their persistence. Considering the collapse in the commodities they continue to call for hyperinflation, even though tapering is coming to an end - which was one of their basis for hyperinflation. Oh well atleast JS isn't telling people anymore that shadowstats is a must own to survive in investing, LOL indeed:

    Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

    The latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.

    - A "False Dawn" It Is
    - Hyperinflation Forecast Remains in Play
    - Stock Crashes versus October Residual-Squirrelling Instincts
    - Durable Goods Orders Crashed 18.0% (-18.0%), Reversing July’s 22.2% Surge, Dominated Again by Irregular Commercial-Aircraft Orders
    - Down for the Month, August Existing-Home Sales Were in Tenth Month of Annual Decline
    - August New-Home Sales Surge of 18.0% Was Statistically-Insignificant

    "No. 661: "False Dawn," Hyperinflation, Durable Goods Orders, Home Sales"
    Web-page: http://www.shadowstats.com

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    1. The case for gold longer term is really not that hard to figure out Prophet.

      Trillions of dollars of debt is still being piled up against paper currencies every year with no end in sight.

      Because of that astronomical debt, central banks cannot raise interest rates without adding potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments to their deficits and national debts without risking bankrupting that currency.

      Its really just basic math don't you think?

      Or do you see a way out besides trying smoke and mirrors?

      Delete
    2. Prophet, wait for the King Klowns and Eric's full court press this weekend; it oughta be a good one.

      Delete
    3. @Barney, your faith in gold as the ultimate store of value during times of financial collapse is touching, but history shows that other assets are much more reliable, real estate in particular.

      Delete
    4. I'd trade all of my gold and silver (ok, maybe not all of it) for a nice piece of real estate if or when the time comes but not at these prices currently.

      Delete
    5. Barneyb6 understands absolutely nothing about currencies or monetary policy. Therefore he goes long gold. Pretty sad, pretty sad.

      Delete
  14. Anyone who traded their retirement account based on the advice of General Jim and John "Big Mac" Williams has seen their retirement dreams summarily executed, ISIS style.

    Virtually all the hyperinflation suggestions and the 6,857 articles on jsmineset warning about "Egypt, Syra, Iraq, H1N1, Bird Flu, Ukraine, Putin, yada, yada, yada was a complete and total waste of effort.

    Talk about "survival", LOL.....

    ReplyDelete
  15. Any "Extended Family" members going to a Q & A session soon?

    LOL... that would be a huge laugh.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Dan, I disagree with you. There is still some very good money to be made out of the mining sector (at least until the trend changes). I did very well holding DUST since late August. ;-).

    Thanks for your blog. I “rediscovered” it early September when I needed to hear something different from the mindset of the gold bug community. You confirmed me what I was seeing and allowed me to hold on to my analysis. Serious, reading you brought me the confidence I needed to hold on to DUST.

    It is amazing to see all the denial being written on so many web sites. Most of these are coin dealers that keep telling their clients that TODAY is the best time ever to buy!...

    This doesn’t mean that the story with gold/silver is over either. It might very well one day re-integrate the world monetary system and be re-valued several multiples higher. However, for the time being it’s going down. And I think that it still has a long way to go. Watch for the HUI to collapse as gold breaks through the last 2 years “bottom”.

    I would still recommend keeping a physical position outside the banking system as no one really knows if/when we are going to have a systemic failure. I still see it as a valuable insurance.

    ReplyDelete
  17. A lot of confident certitude flying around here. Does it occur to anyone that we have the same arrogance on the downside for gold as we had on the upside; also the same arrogance for the uptrend of the S&P and the dollar? The truth is that no one knows what is going to happen, apart from having a 'feeling' of tremendous bearish sentiment, and bullish sentiment for the others, as also shown on the charts.

    Who knows what is waiting in the wings? The big banks can tweak this market up in a concerted twinkling of an eye, and we will all be left stranded on the beach, gasping for air, and looking very foolish - in the same way they did last year, only in reverse. Probably they won't deign to do so until we go lower, and until there is real panic, and the proverbial blood is flowing in the streets. Black swans anyone? They are flapping around all over the place, and could come home to roost at any moment. All I can say to you prescient ones, is don't get caught with your nickers down!

    I started buying gold in 1999 and continued steadily until 2006, then stopped, resuming again in 2008 for a short period. Since then I have seen huge gains reduced to very good gains, and they may fall even more to just good gains. Hardly panicking, and still very grateful, that gold has been for me much more than insurance. I do not have any intention to sell it. However, expediency dictates buying puts, and the likes of DUST and JDST, which has been very profitable so far as an investment policy. I 'think' gold will fall further, maybe even another $200 or so (who knows), which would produce staggering profits, but if gold does go up I am protected by my heavy metal. Win, win!

    Now I have to prove I am not a robot, which is sometimes almost impossible to do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're preaching in exactly the wrong church, as this is one of the few places where HUMILITY is stressed, and certitude laughed at. We deserve a good laugh at the idiots in the PM community, and their "predictions". Maybe you could share your criticism there, as it is where it is needed (but certainly won't be welcomed...)

      Delete
    2. Rico, it is interesting that you use the word CHURCH. Unfortunately, too much belief is attached to investment, and this is my whole point. I only urge caution, and would not preach to anyone, for the simple reason I don't know. Pursuing the religious context you choose, I would have to say I am a skeptical agnostic.

      Delete
  18. 800$ even 600 is a nice target for killing all gold bugs out there before gold can going up to all new high again. This is a zero sum business where the money transferred from the stupid to the wise

    ReplyDelete
  19. I think this is very important indeed : many people long gold may think that even if 1180 breaks, the real long term bottom cannot be far down.

    I see it from some comments right here : why not buy now, after all, we are close to the bottom, so why should I risk to miss the bounce?
    Imho, this is a very dangerous statement. People don't even realize that they are kind of certain that gold will bounce soon and not so far below.
    This is a pure bet.
    If gold falls further than their expectations, they will wake up in full nightmare mode when the last real supports they are watching (1100? 1000?) give way. Then the usual process is panic thinking : I never thought this could happen. How far can gold go? If I sell now at 1000, maybe it's not sucy a bad deal if it drops down to 600. After all, silver already lost 70% from its highs. How much is it if gold does the same? 600 $ ? I'd better sell now, after all, etc...

    The quarterly bollinger band going up will of course give a support area for bulls, but nothing says this won't be but temporary. What about the second and third hit? How far can gold really go down? I really don't know. 800 is possible if you consider we had a horizontal flag : 1800 to 1200 roughly, now 1400 to 800 roughly, with the flag 1200-1400.
    So, gold bulls, last wake up call, really.
    Protect yourselves and please consider NOW that gold may go down much lower than you expect.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, of course, gold might go down much further, or go up much further for that matter. Dan urges humility, and now is the time for humility, not wild predictions when there are so many unknown factors. You consult your charts like you would consult your crystal ball, yet you frequently tell us that t/a is not predictive, and we don't understand it, but is a guide for entry points only. So, where do you get your certainty from? The best solution is in my post above where you use puts to protect your position, but of course to do that you would have had to buy gold many years ago and held it. Did you?

      Delete
    2. Hubert:

      People would do well to follow your advice. It is a simple fact that not a single one of us knows where the bottom might be for gold. Nor did any of us know where the top was until AFTER it occurred. We use TA to tell us these things.

      For now, there is NO SIGN of a bottom.

      Also, as I have mentioned many times here now over the last few months -even if gold were to bottom, that DOES NOT imply it is now about to turn and skyrocket higher. It could very well meander sideways going nowhere and doing nothing for many years.

      Folks need to consider that from 1980 - 2000 ( TWENTY LONG YEARS ) gold was in a grind lower and then bounced along a bottom for years before the bull finally came back.

      LIke I said before and will say again, buy gold for insurance, put it away and forget about it other than to monitor its progress. But ignore the Hemke's and the Turk's and the Willie's, and the Maquire's and KWN's and all the rest of the gold perma bull sites.

      They are not doing anyone any favor by their steady, incessant,non-stop, wild, reckless, wrong-headed, false, and broken predictions.

      All are a testimony to PT Barnum's saying: " There is a sucker born every minute".

      Delete
    3. Dan, how right you are, about suckers I mean. However, the same applies to belief in an ever rising dollar (dollar to da moon), or S&P, or any market, including gold and silver. When we WANT something to happen, as humans we try to MAKE it happen by constructing a belief system. Truth is we simply don't know and find it almost impossible to accept this basic fact.

      Delete
    4. Peter;

      Let me say this as kindly as I can - stop trying to argue with the markets - it is a losing strategy. The dollar is rising because it is currently the least bad apple in the bunch. As long as that is the case, it will continue to outperform its competitors. There is no sense in railing against it, yelling at it, bemoaning it, etc. It is a FACT that it is rising. If it is rising, then you are either long the Dollar or out of the market but you sure as hell do not want to be SHORT. That is financial suicide.

      Remember that saying : "the markets can remain irrational until long after you are insolvent"..
      That is some pretty good wisdom.

      Please understand the reason I can say these things to you is not because I am angry with you but rather because I recognize the attitude you have because in my earlier days as a trader trying to learn the ropes, it was exactly the same thing for me.

      I would watch markets move in directions that my analysis told me were completely contrary to what they should be doing. Instead of being smart enough or experienced enough, to understand what was happening and get out, I would sit there and manage to lose a great deal of money.

      After getting kicked in the teeth often enough I finally learned to get out of the way. Needless to say I am a lot happier and a lot more successful at this as a result.

      the deal with this profession however is that it can be BRUTAL learning one's lessons. The markets are merciless and they do not suffer fools. Learn to become wise my friend.

      Leave the fools to read the Hemke's and Turks and Maquires and KWN's of the world.

      Delete
    5. Whereas the dollar may continue to rise, and as you say the markets can remain irrational until one is broke, I am not comfortable with it, and am not partial to rotten apples. However, I will not bet against it as this is far too risky short-term. Same as gold, betting that it will rise substantially is just reckless gambling. I prefer to just hedge my existing gold holdings.

      Thank you for your advice which is excellent. It is not just based on t/a but comes from longstanding experience, plus an indefinable instinct for successful investing that only very few acquire.

      Delete
  20. The USD is down 2% vs the yuan since May, yet everyone is still screaming that king dollar has returned.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey PP...care to further imply how GDXJ is faring YTD and the significance of it vs. whatever it was you were getting at last weekend?

      Delete
    2. Read dans post maybe?

      What is overvalued and undervalued mean to you ?

      Delete
    3. Fuzzy questions that have no bearing on how or why the FX markets work the way they do.

      The markets could care less how anyone feels or interprets the data points and why certain currencies are where they're at.
      It is what it is. Just because TD and most of us recognized long ago that the USD was going to go on a tear doesn't mean we're in love with the USD.

      It simply means we recognize and accept what's going on for now.
      But I'm not so sure you're looking for a logical explanation because you have a tendency apparently to pick some obscure sentence or word and then ask about it's meaning or relevancy.

      Btw...how's that GDXJ barometer working out this week as opposed to last week? ;-)

      Delete
  21. I remember Rubin and Greenspan with their strong dollar policy back in the late 90's. I think the Euro premiered at 1.17 cents back in 1999.. But the USD/EUR fell to almost .85 somewhere early last decade.

    We think 1.24 is low?

    That strong dollar policy of the Clinton regime caused the Nasdaq stock market bubble as people rushed into the dollar. And it caused gold to bottom concomitantly. We are seeing a second act unfold. Remember the price of oil back then? I think it hit 20 a barrel. If memory serves me.

    So, while many are looking on in disbelief at the dollar's ascent, it is not without precedent. Moreover, the last time this happened, I made a killing day trading stocks, which allowed me to quit my regular employ for good back in 2001.

    I actually was working for Nasdaq at the time in New York. What a hoot it was. The dinners and women. I digress. Now I live an austere life as a solitary trader.

    Anyway, this trend, now that it is established can certainly go into warp speed over the next year.

    Gird your loins and keep your gold hedged. It could really continue to fall. I stick to my original chart analysis from early last year, which has so far rewarded me on my passive hedge and gold sales at 1632 bearish wedge breach - gold will break 1,000.

    Why is that? The dollar could rise like it did under Rubin and it could really make gold look like an embarrassment to many of its promoters. Plus, I remember the nearly two-year price congestion it went through from February 2008 until about 2010, when it finally busted through 1,000 the last time on that go around. Many gold owners have no idea of that experience, having jumped aboard after gold busted through 1,500.

    Mark my words, it will visit it again. It has to, but it must hold. Imagine the rocket fuel if it does. But the process will be painful to those who are not longer term owners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eph, I take it your last paragraph means gold 'has to ' go down to $1000, and then there will be rocket fuel to push it up again, and I must mark your words. Is that the gist of it? How do you know all these things? If I had your powers I would be a multi billionaire.

      Delete
    2. There will be no rocket... I live just fine. You should stick to facts. I paint no ad hominems. You should as well. I have been a full timer for years. I don't just look at charts I feel the wind blow and.understand where it.comes from and which direction it will blow. My best trades are not trades but placing bets on trends. If one could not spot this PM trend he should not waste his time, or is too contaminated by the gold shills. BTW There is a special place in hell for the gold promoters. They infiltrate the remnant community, gain their trust and leave town. Uneducated carpetbaggers

      Just remember to buy me lunch after the dollar finishes.its blowoff top.

      Delete
    3. Eph, one completely valid point you make is to keep your gold hedged, as anything could happen.

      Delete
    4. Eph, you should read your own post about rocket fuel, so what does that mean, and what exactly is it pushing up, if I follow your English? I too post no ad hominems, and hope we have not got to the point where differing opinions must be construed as such, and are considered as heresy in the church of your certain bullishness for the dollar.

      You say I am contaminated by the gold shills, and there is a special place in hell for the gold promoters. Are these not ad hominems? The Spanish Inquisition also said there is a special place in hell for heretics. Auto-da-fes, anyone?

      If you read my posts carefully you will see that I am NOT a gold promoter, but a long-standing investor in gold who has done exceedingly well in it, but for some time has hedged his bet heavily with puts, so he is in a win-win situation. Somehow you manage to make a quantum leap and turn this into carpet bagging for which one must necessarily go to hell.

      For the umpteenth time I tell you that I don't know what gold is going to do, and as an 'old timer' I invested in gold a long time ago when it was very cheap, so having hedged these investments with puts I am in a win-win situation, intolerable as that may seem.

      Delete
    5. http://henrymakow.com/2013/02/What-is-Ailing-Gold.html

      An article I wrote in feb of last year. I am a student of scripture. Thus, this monetary system was not an organic result of random problems. It was burped up from hell. We arw all stuck in it. Let's keep our heads above water.

      Delete
    6. http://henrymakow.com/2013/04/Goldbugs-Can-Expect-More-Losses.html

      This was written at 1550.

      Delete
    7. http://henrymakow.com/2013/04/the-precious-metals-massacre.html

      I started writing this gold was approaching 1525. rote that as the Fed worked with JPM to dump 400 tons on the open market.

      Delete
    8. Eph, at least we agree on something, that gold was 'dumped' on the market in a concerted way, which is of course completely illegal, but who cares. That the monetary system was 'burped up from hell' may be a little excitable: let's just say it is an unholy mess, an expected outcome of greedy politicians trying to get something out of nothing, and now out of something far less than nothing, namely, limitlessly unquenchable debt that is l now escalating unquenchably into a black hole vortex of disaster.

      Delete
    9. If gold was manipulated down in 2013 as Eph categorically states, what need do we have for charts? Did the charts forecast in some strange way that this would happen? Let me put it to you this way, if I hit you over the head enough times with a cricket bat, will you become depressed? Same with gold, which is now, to put it mildly, in a very bad mood.

      Delete
    10. Peter Dykes;

      I strongly disagree that gold was "manipulated down in 2013". Many traders and investors began to realize around that time that the rounds of QE were not getting the created liquidity into the broader economy and that Velocity of Money was falling, not rising. Thus, with inflationary pressures subsiding ( as far as the market was concerned ) gold was overpriced. They came to that conclusion about silver as well.

      They certainly came to the same conclusion about copper at that time. It fell below a key chart support level near 3.25 which had held it for over a year and a half on the downside.

      Once it failed there, it then entered a grinding move lower, which as continued to this day. Are we going to say now that "copper was manipulated lower"?

      The question answers itself. Of course it was NOT. it was a realigning of EXPECTATIONS and PERCEPTIONS that the "buy hard assets to protect against inflation from QE" theme was being slowly but surely jettisoned.

      That is not "manipulation"; It is smart traders learning to adjust to shifts in the market mood.

      Also a cursory examination of the Commitment of traders report for the April 2013 time period shows that it was Commercial trader buying that was occurring, not selling. the ones doing the selling on the breach of $1530 were hedge funds who began exiting their long side positions.

      And to answer your question.... the charts did EXACTLY what they were supposed to do, they showed the beginning of a bear market which has continued since then. No one is "hitting gold". They are selling it and moving the money into another asset class just like they are selling the entire commodity sector across the board.

      Might I suggest that the reason you seem to be in such a "sour mood" about all this is that you perhaps missed the signal indicating the beginning of a bear market and the confirmation of the end of the bull market in gold and sadly were not able to protect your gains at that time?

      If so, please understand, that this is part of learning how to trade/invest. It requires tremendous dedication to one's craft, long hours spent in analysis and research and above all, the ability to admit when one has made a wrong investment decision ( we all do that) and then correct it as quickly as possible

      One can always recover from losses in the market provided that they learn from mistakes and are willing to accept small losses. It is allowing or permitting small losses to become large losses that ruins people financially.

      This, by the way, is the issue I have with the snake-oil gold promoters like Turk, Hemke, Maquire, etc,. - they kept regaling their duped victims with one stupid, assisine theory after another which claimed that any day now the PHYSICAL gold market was going to overpower the paper gold market and the yellow metal would break free and soar to some "true value"( whatever the hell that meant).

      Instead of taking a small loss or at least realizing some of the open profits they might have in their account, anyone who listened to these charlatans ended up being financially destroyed - all because they listened to a pack of inept, deceiving, bamboozling fools.

      How much time did I spend refuting the utter nonsense that gold was in backwardation and that the paper market was doomed as a result? Hemke, Maquire, Turk were the main cheerleaders for that theory which is why I single them out. These three and their stupidly wrongheaded claims prevented anyone with a lick of objectivity from seeing what was obvious on the price charts for those who wanted to actually see what the MARKET was saying, not these Three Amigos.

      Delete
    11. Dan, you may well be right about this. I simply don't know, and acknowledge this fact. I am NOT in a sour mood, as I stated in my previous posts because I got into gold a long time ago when it was ridiculously cheap, not as insurance but as a superb investment, which you yourself once advocated. Even if gold goes down to $1000 or $800 I still come out very substantially on top. However, some time ago I invested in puts, and the likes of DUST and JDST on a fairly big scale, so I am gaining mightily from this. If gold goes down to $1000 I would indeed be a very happy chappie, and as they say, laughing all the way to the bank, but still have my metallic hoard intact and be very much in the black. As a very naughty boy I am playing this game from both sides.

      Delete
    12. Peter;

      There ya go! Now that is being smart my friend! Hold the physical metal for insurance but profit from the short side of the market hedging what you own and reaping a bonus on top of that! Many over here at this site are doing exactly that and sleeping quite well as a result.

      If that is being " a very naughty boy" I think a lot of us over here are naughty!

      And for the record, I still advocate holding gold. I have tried to make that very clear.

      There is a big difference between those in the gold cult who follow personalities and "gold experts" and those who are actually respectful of the role of gold as those of us over here but who are objective and hardnosed realists and let the market inform us of what is happening, not some gold guru.

      Delete
    13. Funny, we seem to have been arguing but we agree on everything!

      Delete
  22. Just how stubborn will Putin be and for how long can he afford to do so?
    ~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~


    "How Russia’s Debt and Currency Markets Could Spiral into Crisis"

    By MICHAEL J. CASEY


    This week’s rumor that Russia would impose capital controls to protect a plummeting ruble has dissipated – with no less an authority than Vladimir Putin dismissing it as unfounded earlier Thursday.


    But that doesn’t mean the Russian President won’t eventually have a major financial crisis on his hands, or that he won’t have to resort to even more draconian measures to contain it than limiting cross-border fund flows. It will just take longer for that crisis to gestate than was implied by the market’s selloff.

    Fact 1: Russia had $465 billion in foreign reserves as of the end of August, the fifth largest stash in the world. That can buy the central bank an awful lot of rubles to prop up the currency.

    Fact 2:Russia had $524 billion in reserves just 10 months earlier. That $69 billion depletion demands that you weigh Fact 1’s significance with skepticism.

    In just five months during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Russia suffered $210 billion in reserve outflows. Indeed, the country has an almost unbroken history of capital flight – its wealthier citizens have always spirited their money offshore – and there’s plenty about the current environment that could cause that trend to pick up.

    Oil prices are at two-year lows and would be lower if not for...(cont.)

    http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/03/how-russias-debt-and-currency-markets-could-spiral-into-crisis/

    ReplyDelete
  23. If u are not American and get a lot of money, which safe heaven you put it. Rich Chineses better to buy houses in USA before being executed by Xi. Rich Russians better to buy houses in USA before anything gets worst by Putin. The real estate market in India already peaked so rich indians advised to buy a property in US as well. EUR, GBP, Real, JPY all going down so USD is only option right now for institutions in the age of deflation. And US market still the best and you dont want to buy emerging market stocks.So all money go to US. No money left for EUR, GBP and gold right now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Linh H Le;

      All excellent points! Well said....

      Delete
    2. Your welcome , Dan. I reading yours 2 years ago and gradually I get interested in FA combination with TA. I follow Larry Williams but he missing 2 pieces of important consideration on gold trading , tips spread and etf holing which you focus on much recently.Thanks

      Delete
  24. In almost every complex argument there is a nucleus, whereby it can be resolved down to one central fact, that is the core. We call this reductionism. Unfortunately, very few use thus technique, preferring to dart around on the surface of the argument, pointing to this and that to support their thesis, ending up utterly confused, and finally resorting to BELIEF in desperation.

    In the case of whether gold will rise or fall, this nucleus is simple: is the economy really 'recovering' or is this just an illusion ( some of the more cynical of us might say HOAX)? IMHO if the economy tanks gold goes to da moon, and if it booms gold goes to the pits. Let me ask another sneaky question, can gold recover with a 200 trillion dollar debt as stated by Professor Laurence Kotlikoff, including unfunded liabilities for the future?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Peter;

      If the economy tanks, gold could very well do the exact opposite of what you expect and that is, it could collapse against with prices in the rest of the commodity complex.

      That is what happened in 2008 when the credit crisis hit. Gold imploded lower like ever other commodity out there and it was not until QE was announced that it recovered.

      The reason commodities are seeing such intense selling pressure is because of SLOWING GROWTH.

      You might do well to not be too rigid in that view of yours. I for one am trying to keep an open mind about all of this because I had expected gold to go higher when the credit crisis hit as a safe haven but it was the worst safe haven out there. The best one, in retrospect, turned out to be Treasury bonds! How about that for a monkey wrench thrown into the mix.

      Suggestion - stop with the dogmatic assertions. You do not know what might happen nor do I. We can only go off the recent past and extrapolate from that but even at that, it is no guarantee that things will repeat exactly. Everything changes. We adapt or perish.

      Delete
    2. Dan, I am not making dogmatic assertions, and as I keep on saying I DONT KNOW. As you yourself state, you expected gold to go higher but it didn't, so who is calling the kettle black? As a person who studies and delights in skeptical philosophy, I am the the first to agree that everything is uncertain and unpredictable. This is why I have protected my gold position with extensive puts for a considerable time, so that I cannot lose, but if gold does collapse I will do extraordinarily well. In such a position, you could say that I would like gold to fall heavily, because my gains from the puts will be enormous, but I am still left with my very profitable gold, that remains as a solid foundation, or as you put it, insurance.

      Delete
    3. Dan, I don't think we are seeing that much slowing growth.

      Remember commodities totally collapsed in 1997 - 1999 during one of the biggest employment booms ever, where everyone was switching jobs for higher pay because the job market was so strong, and interest rates were climbing and we had moderate inflation due to wage growth.

      Delete
    4. Yes Mark but you need to take off the rose colored glasses off now. The large economies are bankrupt with ever increasing debt that wants to deflate and is slowing growth.

      The economy is a big bubble now, a big illusion that the Fed is trying to keep alive with endless QE and 0% interest rates for as long as they can.

      Eventually the markets/treasury bond holders and dollar buyers are going to wake up and realize its a Fed created illusion and perhaps start dumping these assets.

      The markets still have a cult like belief in what the Fed is doing for now, so the illusion continues.

      Delete
    5. Mark;

      I am just going off of the current rate of growth that the feds are giving us with the GDP numbers. I really do believe that if we could get past the current administration with its hostile business policies, that we could see some remarkable growth in the US.
      Clearly there is still plenty of dynamism, resiliency, innovation still left in the American business. It just needs a government to get out of the way and let it do what it does best and stop putting obstacles in its path.

      I do worry about the job market however but as I have said before, that can be fixed with a new administration which will stop crushing business and allow it to expand and create some good, high paying careers.

      Delete
  25. Now its time to once again, provide the list of Quacks and Charlatans who have misguided so many:

    - Eric "Crybaby" King
    - James "Belvedere" Dines
    - "General" Jim Sinclair
    - James "Bond" Rickards
    - Bill "Wild Turkey" Murphy
    - Rick "I'd Love To!" Rule
    - Paul Craig "Moonshiner" Roberts
    - Richard "The Godfather" Russell
    - Eric "The Billionaire" Sprott
    - Stephen "Squeaky" Leeb
    - David "Blue Hair" Stockman
    - Egon "Egghead" Von Greyerz
    - James "Month In, Month Out" Turk
    - Michael "Screaming" Pento
    - Peter "Smug Face" Schiff
    - John "Squealer" Embry
    - John "The Monk" Hathaway
    - Ben "Prep School" Davies
    - Andrew "Secret Agent" McGuire
    - Jim "T-Shirt" Willie
    - Doug "Don't Cry For Me" Casey
    - "Steaming Turd" Ferguson

    The "Amazing Predictions": Of course they would have been dead right if they were talking about the gold market, LOL!!!

    As of August 16, 2014

    "This Is the Worst Nightmare for the U.S. and The West"
    "This Will Trigger Major Dislocations In World Financial Markets"
    "Gerald Celente - This Global Collapse Is Just Getting Started"
    "Fleckenstein - U.S. Stocks To Crash As No Liquidity Fuels Panic"
    "Short Squeeze Of Epic Proportions To Shock Market Participants"
    "A Horrifying & Destructive Future For The Entire World"
    "Chart Of The Week & Vladimir Putin & Chaos Around The World"
    "It’s Amazing What People In Europe Are Doing Just To Survive"
    "Gerald Celente - The Global Ponzi Scheme Is On Its Death Bed"
    "World War III, Total Global Collapse & The Greatest Depression"

    Now, let's restate these:

    "This Is the Worst Nightmare for the Gold Mining industry and those who have been accumulating gold in The East"

    "This Will Trigger Major Dislocations In the Commodity and FX Markets"

    "Gerald Celente - This Global Collapse in the Metals, Mining, and Coal industry Is Just Getting Started"

    "Fleckenstein - Resource Stocks To Crash As No Liquidity Fuels Panic"

    "Short Squeeze Of Epic Proportions in USDX To Shock Market Participants"

    "A Horrifying & Destructive Future For The Precious Metals World"

    "Chart Of The Week of the Russian Ruble Triggering Chaos Around The World"

    "It’s Amazing What People In Europe Are Doing Just To Survive, Now That Their Currency Has Crashed"

    "Gerald Celente - The Global Gold Bug Misinformation Scheme Is On Its Death Bed"

    "Many Wars, Total Global Collapse & An Industry Depression Will Soon Be Occurring in the Natural Resource Sector "

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. don't forget peter "too late to sell" grandich

      Delete
    2. At dollarvigilante.com facebook group they bashed me when I criticised Eric Sprott and David Morgan. I respect Berwick the owner who support Bitcoin there but others followers got radical views

      Delete
  26. Mark, thank you very much for that. Please take your meds now or nurse will have to give you a you know what.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Dan, what are the resistance points for EUR/USD right now? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  28. They say that the triple is the most exciting play in baseball and I tend to agree. As for triple tops and triple bottoms, Dan is right in that they are seldom valid, as opposed to double tops and bottoms. HOWEVER, if you played the gold triple top @1800, and the triple bottom @1550, you were paid off nicely.

    The reason I mention this is because on the weekly nearest charts, we have 2 possible triple bottoms showing up. I am speaking of course of the gold and the Russell 2000. I love playing these for the simple reason that if you are right, you get rewarded handsomely. On the other hand, the risk is fairly easy to determine if we have a failure. At that point, whether you want to be conservative and cut loss, or aggressive and reverse, the choice is yours. The only thing that can confidently be said, at least imho, is that we ain't going sideways in here, Martha. Take care all !

    ReplyDelete
  29. Brassey:

    I agree, triple bottoms on stock ETF's like IWM have a high probability of holding or reversing after a breakout.

    GLD, on the other hand is nearly destined to break down and grind back to the 2002 lows.

    Some sectors have the support of the "Central Planners"

    Others don't.

    And the Central Planners are almost always bigger than the market, as evidenced by what has happened the last 5 years.

    Central Banking has never been so easy.

    It's that simple.

    The only reason they let stocks crash in 2008 was it was a once in a lifetime opportunity to:

    1) Allow the 1% crowd to pick up "bargains" and get even richer

    2) Encourage the 99% to become even more dependent upon government handouts and control

    2) Allow the system to recover by spooking the government to give the Central Banks even greater powers

    Now they have total control.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Another "eggspurt legend" John Ing, which I mistakenly left off my list, making yet another excuse as to why gold is going to explode "Any Minute Now!"

    Here is his blown call from June, when he expected $100 - $200 up days in gold, LOL....

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/19_Legend_Warns_To_Expect_$100_To_$200_Up-Days_In_Gold.html

    So funny how all these "Legends" will go down in history as being consistently dead wrong for years and years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark;

      What is really beyond pathetic is the fact that these guys can do this over and over and over again, with ZERO accountability and apparently no harmful fallout. They just keep on with the next prediction and the next and next after that and somehow,, they still have an audience. Beats the heck out of how people can be so dense and so gullible and so stupid that they cannot see through those who know nothing more than anyone else.

      Delete
    2. I think the reason is because most gold bugs are so under water that listening to these guys makes them feel better - lots of trading is psychology as I'm sure we know.

      Others are newbies who don't know better, doesn't this industry depend on a steady stream of this category of people?

      Delete
  31. Of course JS has his explanation that appeals to the above. This reference to Armstrong is erroneous as Armstrong is just calling what the market is doing and the probability that likely gold is going lower.


    My Dear Friends,

    Gold has had a historic amount of negative print and airtime this week. The Yamana and Armstrong comments seem timed perfectly to kick the legs out from under gold. The price of the US Dollar seems to have forgotten it was at .7900 only 11 weeks ago.

    The dollar has risen because the Euro collapsed 1000 points from 1.3600 to below 1.2600. This collapse of the Euro is due to the serious sanction’s impact on Europe which have not significantly damaged any US financial interests. On the contrary, anti Russian sanctions have tipped Europe into recession. Draghi has been trying to talk the Euro lower for trade reasons, but his power is only words as QE there is more than likely against their constitution. This will decided soon.

    To declare a permanent death sentence on gold because of the dollar’s mirror image up move to the sanction-injured euro is premature in rally week #12.

    Gold is trading down into old lows which by definition are major support levels while both long and short term cyclical indicators have gone positive. Therefore probability says the decline is nearing an end both in time and price.

    I am fully committed financially to gold as I was above $1900. I anticipate success.

    This will drive the gold hating internet trolls wild, but all their efforts fit nicely into the spam blocker. I do not open emails from new names during these trying times as I know the organized and strategized hate that pours out of them.

    The takedown on gold is a highly organized spoofing play. It will fail to hold gold down permanently, and gold will again trade to new highs.

    Sincerely,
    Jim

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elijah:

      That is indeed very sad.

      Blaming a move lower in gold on a technical analyst? There was no "timing" involved other than reading what the chart was already saying.

      The Euro is moving lower on interest rate differentials against the Dollar. Same goes for the Yen. Same goes for the Aussie Dollar,etc. They are all moving lower against the greenback. SAme goes for the emerging market currencies. So can we blame every currency moving lower against the Dollar because of Russian sanctions? If anything, the Brazilian Real would benefit because of those sanctions because any agricultural based exports out of that nation now can move more freely into Russia without competition form the US. Yet, the Real is moving lower.

      The argument that he is espousing to explain the Euro moving lower is simply not true but is instead an attempt to explain a horrible call on the US Dollar that is not materializing one bit the way he thought it would. This is more closely akin to the following:

      " if it wasn't for that unanticipated, unpredictable, out of the clear blue sky development, my call on the US Dollar would now be coming true".

      As stated before on this site, the Euro moved lower when Draghi and company wanted it to move lower because it was overpriced against the greenback in particular and because the ECB is still dealing with the fallout from the European debt crisis. The Eurozone data has not been strong from even back then.

      Also, there is neither a short term cycle low nor a long term cycle low that has gone positive. the exact opposite is true. Gold is gaining downside momentum at the moment and shows no sign of a bottom. Maybe it will next week. Maybe it won't but an unbiased view of the market suggests a bearish view with any sort of bullish call based on nothing more than wishful thinking and not sound TA analysis.

      One last thing and I am done with this - there was NO "highly organized spoofing play". What there was instead was a market moving lower based on a shift in fundamentals as noted here many times on this site including a collapse in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, a falling TIPS spread, falling GLD reported holdings, and a surging Dollar.

      If that is a "highly organized spoofing play" they practically every single commodity market on the major US exchanges have been undergoing one of late and that is beyond ridiculous.

      Gold might trade at new highs but as to WHEN that will occur is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be a long, long time in coming unless we see something that radically reverses the direction of the US Dollar.

      Delete
    2. Only thing I could see reversing the dollars up trend would be the Fed having to come back and say they have to do more QE and now can't raise interest rates after all.

      Guess there could be a case eventually where no one wants to hold any currency with too much debt attached to it,

      but seems most of the herd don't care about that or don't even notice the un-repayable debt attached to these currencies.

      Just look at so many still holding their life savings in the Yen with its out of this world debt attached to it as they print it into oblivion. Amazing!

      Looks like gold down, dollar up still indeed.

      Delete
    3. I gave up Sinclar, David Morgan.Erric Sprott and other guys in Silverdoctor.com long time ago when they persistently saying the same things over and over and never admit theri wrongness. Meanwhile, Larry Williams and Mc Faber still humble and said they really did not know what going on with gold after their wrong recommendation on gold and Sp500

      Delete
    4. "The Euro is moving lower on interest rate differentials against the Dollar. Same goes for the Yen. Same goes for the Aussie Dollar,etc. They are all moving lower against the greenback. SAme goes for the emerging market currencies. So can we blame every currency moving lower against the Dollar because of Russian sanctions?"

      Indeed. Thanks for that.
      Does it mean the trend is likely to feed itself and we are going to see a further downtrend until the spread between interest rates chance? How down must the euro be to find a bullish side to compensate the current trend? Brr....anyway, the adjustment is fast. 10% down already in a few months for two major currencies.

      Delete
    5. "am fully committed financially to gold as I was above $1900. I anticipate success."

      No, jim sold 3.5 million shares into the 2011 1900 dollar top.

      The only thing jim is committed to is his lies.

      Delete
  32. Gold does not need a weak USD to move up.
    Those of you who use this as an arguement are grasping at straws.
    Both ways up or down
    The western physical demand is up yet no one talks about it.
    Please oh please do not use GLD as a physical arguement.

    I could care less about gold/silver
    I care only about what's overvalued and what is undervalued.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Paper; So western physical demand is up? Where? In East St. Louis, Il or Gary, Indiana, or Camden, N.J., or maybe Compton, Ca? Secondly, what exchange can I trade your overvalued and undervalued mkts?

      Delete
    2. People are not stupid and its showing.
      Go to any coin dealer and ask how many buyers to sellers ratio they have.
      Until this changes I not changing my views.
      Now have I been smart in my investing ways betting against the all mighty? No
      But as I am not a trader I don't have to be on the right side of the trade everyday to put food on the table.
      But again go to your local coin dealer or call them
      Using GLD as physical market analysis, your not doing your homework.
      The masses ( everyday people )
      Will tell you.

      Delete
    3. Actually I don't care the masses. Btw bottom catching is very difficult for retail investors like us. We just follow the trend. Top and bottom swing better left for institutions

      Delete
    4. If you ignore the masses you are ignoring demand or lack there of.

      Supply and demand
      People including Dan can write hours of long of analysis charts and more charts.
      Go outside for yourself and open your eyes rather than sitting infront of your screen.

      Delete
    5. If they are buying at these prices, you think they will stop when the price goes lower??lol

      Delete
    6. The masses always wrong. I don't care about them but Commercials and Hedge Funds who can move the market.

      Delete
    7. Last but not least, the not only move the market but also they can pick top and bottom . The masses don't know nothing about bottom fishing or selling at top

      Delete
  33. Sinclair is truly stupid, as well as dishonest: "spoofing play"?? He clearly doesn't even know what that term means, but I guess he thinks throwing in some "tech lingo" will make him appear cool to the young sheep he is trying to shear...

    @Sykes, hope you realize that, on trading boards, anyone boasting constantly about their vast profits and trading wizardry is automatically re-classified to the "sore loser" category.

    Like Dan, we all hope you made all the money in the world on your "can't lose" gold trades. That would truly make you an exception to the above rule. That would also make you the first.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Was there as much pessimism in s&p back in 09 as there is in gold right now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zzz....yeah hang on on your hope regarding extreme pessimism, as if it were the ultimate indicator to buy in a bear market, right at the time last gold's major is being threatened and gold to undergo what already happened when 1500 area gave way.
      Most people never learn anything and will be condemned to keep all their gold without hedging anything all the way down to the bottom.
      Noone knows if this 1180 support will hold.
      Noone knows how deep gold will go if it does, while you will repeat endlessly : "the bottom comes tomorrow, because we never had such pessimism". Actually there was a decrease of volatility throughout all last year on the weekly time unit. There cannot be too much pessimism and desperation with LOW volatility.
      You will know what pessimism and desparation means when volatility explodes, when gold loses 60 $+ every single day from here again.
      But you should know by now, you've experienced it 2 years ago.
      No? Doesn't ring a bell? It's already pre-history?
      Oh, sorry : for you, does "pessimism" mean someone who is telling you that the support at 1180 may simply NOT HOLD? You think people who say that have a nagative, pessimistic biais? Incredible. How is the weather up there in the clouds with pink elephants?

      Delete
  35. Great posts here. A few things:
    1. Gold's current level is just around the Fib. 61.8% retrace from the 2008-2011 lows-high. I guess this retrace isn't as powerful one for the whole bull market (which would put gold just under $900). If anyone can say why the one wis more powerful than the other, that'd be great.

    2. In the equities market, AA is coming up next week on the earnings calendar. AA has started the rocked of INDU and SXP off at the start of each earnings season. But, the stock is technically week (double topped out) even though it got a high buy rating from Goldman last week. A lot of AA's business is automobile markets. If this markets starts to slow, or if we get a bleak forecast like we did with Ford a few weeks ago. I think the market's reaction to AA will give us an idea of the movements in the broader market.

    ReplyDelete
  36. The most endangered species is on two, not four, legs. It is "the goldbug"

    ReplyDelete
  37. What Jim Sinclair does not seem to know is that Louise Yamadas piece was written on September 4, not last week when kwn published it. Get out of the bunker Jim.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim just says things with great conviction. Whether these things are correct or what happens to the poor folks that listen to Jim is of no consideration.

      Jims actions speak of a sick mind.

      Delete
  38. Technical charts are worshiped by traders just as much as goldbugs worship physical

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You shoudn't care about who's worshiped by whom.
      What you should care about is the end result of a worship on your assets.
      Until now, "worshiping" charts allowed me to :
      - buy gold at 1200 first of july 2013, based on prices totally out of bollinger bands monthly time unit. Sell gold up to 1420. See the history of this blog.
      - buy gold again near 1250 once more. Sell gold up to 1340. See the history of this blog.
      - sell gold as a short at 1314 this year. Buy it back down to 1254. Then sell again short stop at 1238. Sold 1/3 at 1190 on friday. See the history of this blog.

      Conclusion : in 15 months, gold's performance is ZERO, from 1200 to 1200. But, using a bit of T.A, you could be several times long or short within the range and make money based on charts and trends, when the global profit of a long term "gold bull" is Zero.
      Worship whoever you want, I really don't care.

      Delete
    2. Ppuppet--Many technical traders use charts in conjunction with an understanding of the market. The importance, and to me, the ultimate gift of TA is that it gives an objective set of criteria that one can use in the decision making process- when to fish, when to cut bait. It keeps one from using one's heart rather than one's head.

      2ndly, It is much easier to trade along the direction of the market -- much more forgiving--easier to be long in an uptrend and easier to be short in a downtrend.

      Delete
  39. Technical charts are utilized by traders whereas most goldbugs worship physical and despise paper instruments.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So RSI and macd is telling you what for PM and the dollar today??

      Delete
  40. all right 2 hours to get researched up before the ES NQ CL GC SI EC Dx et al reopen!

    stock market bulls have the ball back, let's see what they can do.... an easy stop on stock mkt longs is right below the NQ 4000 round number: got plenty of 4000 touches on the NQ continuous chart and a previous peak at 3997. if the VIX comes out of the gate red monday the bulls will be encouraged.

    still 'powder dry' is the mantra for investors the usual low of the month is Oct. 27:
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-psTU3kbG-Fk/VC8fcrp4YiI/AAAAAAAAQAY/kpR7q28NPg0/s1600/October.png

    The simultaneous rise of the dollar and bonds has generally been an accurate predictor of a forthcoming recession:
    http://etfdigest.com/

    ReplyDelete
  41. Holidays today in Singapore, Sydney and China....New Zealand, Tokyo, Hong Kong are all open.

    The U.S. dollar continued its remarkable rally this week, appreciating by nearly 9 percent since the end of June. This is positive from an inflation perspective and will likely give the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver and push out any interest rate increase even further.

    Dedicated gold funds are not seeing significant new inflows of cash to add to their positions currently. Some have speculated that gold equities may fall lower if general investors choose to wait until after the Fed hikes interest rates to start purchasing gold stocks:
    http://www.usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the link.

      I noticed they also had this to say about gold.

      Gold Market

      A Crowded Trade – When Everyone is Bearish, Get Ready for a Price Reversal

      Despite Dollar Strength, Gold Appears To Have Strong Support At $1200

      The dollar continues to climb higher and higher, weighing on all commodity prices including gold. However, according to UBS, the dollar’s rally is due to deteriorating credit as opposed to strong growth in the United States. If true, this would mean more trouble for industrial metals, but gold should ultimately benefit from that outcome.

      Delete
  42. "Conclusion: we can now emphatically conclude that gold is believed to be either at or very close to an important low here, especially as the dollar looks set to turn lower soon. " - Clive Maund.com, a few days ago (before gold broke through 1210...).

    Yes. Exactly. If 1180 breaks, those people and their followers will keep repeating this exact same mantra every single day, watching gold drop. The day they'll stop repeating that and sell, maybe we'll have more chances to have a bottom.
    In the meantime, 1180 is still holding, of course, but if 1180 breaks, bulls had better watch out instead of staying paralyzed by stupid promises such as those "any day now, gold will rise to the moon!". Wake up, Neo, YOU are the fish!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If 1180 breaks intraday or on a daily/weekly close?

      Delete
    2. are you going to be live behind the screens?
      If you are live, then you can short stop just under 1180 with a decent stop loss above in case of a head fake, plus you will watch the indicators on the faster time units to see if there are signs of a pullback.
      If you are not live behind the screens, then it becomes an individual decision : it is better to wait for the daily close, but then what if prices collapse and lose 40 $ intraday?
      That's why it's nice to buy options put out of the money, which will not make you lose much if nothing happens, but will protect you from a big drecrease of the price of gold. Now options is another story, I'm focusing on CFDs regarding trading.
      Personally, I chose to short stop under 1180 with a stop loss above 1180 of course, even if I'm not behind the screen, and without waiting for a daily confirmation of the close. If I'm stopped out, that's life.

      Delete
  43. In all fairness to Maund he absolutely nailed the Silver crash in Sep 2011:

    http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1316994129.php

    But that is about the only call I have seen him get right...

    ReplyDelete
  44. Oct 5 evening 7 day QPF: massive Central+S-Midwest rains to delay harvest in IL/IN/MO/OH.

    the usda report is next friday:
    http://www.usda.gov/wps/portal/usda/usdahome?navid=AGENCY_REPORTS

    ags were slightly green last week and due to slow harvest have a chance to force some short covering into usda this week.

    Monday’s crop progress likely pegs corn harvest at 19-20 % (31% normal) and soy harvest at 17-19% (40% normal). Weather pattern suggests that lag in harvest will widen further by the following monday.


    ReplyDelete
  45. Massive Pacific storm approaching Pac Northwest which will bring much needed rain next week. Not sure how that impacts crops.

    ReplyDelete
  46. What the constant gold bear posts here always miss is that if the current administrations policies of printing money and running up endless debt continue, eventually gold will go much higher in price against those currencies.

    At some point the herd always wakes up when money printing and debt cannot be stopped, but the herd is always last to wake up history shows.

    Its funny watching some of you slam the guys holding gold like you are right and they are wrong, especially when the administration have shown no ability to stop printing money and running up debt so far.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When are you going to get it??? Most of us here HAVE a portion of our assets in physical PMs--it's just a good thing to own, as part of prudent asset diversification.

      What the 'bugs completely fail to understand is that you can be an owner of significant physical PM holdings, and STILL be bearish of the current price action.

      We don't live in a black and white, bipolar world. Successful investing and asset protection involves many, constantly changing, moving parts. You can't just subscribe to "PMs are the only thing of value", unless you want to lose your shirt waiting for the Apocalypse--the world can only end once, and I prefer to play the odds that it's not an imminent concern.

      You can go on and on about debt, deflation, hyperinflation, war, Ebola as much as you want to, but here's a clue: EVERY ERA has problems! You have not be singled out for special punishment, but it's the 'bugs own false sense of importance and narcissism that makes them think that, somehow, this time is different.

      Get a life--you'll be a lot happier.

      Delete
    2. I understand gold is in a bearish trend Rico, never said it was not.

      I am interested in all markets, not just the gold market.

      And not talking about the world ending, talking about currencies failing because of money printing and debt, which has happened many times throughout history.

      Delete
    3. as Rico says, most people here state that gold may, as you wrote, EVENTUALLY go higher. But
      1) we don't trade future price movements but present price movements.
      2) we hold physical gold (Eph, me, Lan, Dan, etc...) and, when the trend is down, sell short paper on the other side.

      Delete
    4. If you sell out America, you dead and we dead as well. The world eventually goes down but USA will not be the first one. In 60s, US got a lot of problem. In 70s, US got a lot of troubles. In 80s, same. In 90s same same. Sitting in a corner of Asia, I know America still the best place for business, investment and technology . You guys American bashing your country is the big mistake. I see US came over Hitler, Stalin, Mao and radical Islam. For me, if US going down , it a nightmare for Asia because we Asians so good at killing each other, far better than guys Islamists. Hitler killed 6 millions Jews but Mao alone killed 50-80 millions Chinese. Hitler killed 20 millions Russians but Japanese alone killed 30 millions Asians and 23 millions Chinese. Last don't forget Mongolian Empire long time ago. That the problem.So if USA bankrupt not only you American gone bad but Asian gone worst. I see a lot of rich guys from India, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan run into USA and hoard the cash under the floor of a house they bought there.

      Delete
    5. and don't forget Uncle Joe Stalin, Linh, the worst murderer of them all

      Delete
  47. Foreign buyers chasing USD then what they invest for a return ? They will buy T-bonds, real estate and lastly US stock especially large cap. That kind of quasi QE will support stock for a while. As a result, FED doesn't need to do anymore QE so no chance for gold to move up in foreseeable future

    ReplyDelete
  48. Gold imploding as Asia opens

    $1,184

    ReplyDelete
  49. Dan,

    Do you only trade for yourself, or do you have clients? If you you do trade for others I would like your contact info as I could not find it on the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  50. usa is clean and green on reopen: ES NQ ZB DX ... livin' in the usa

    a few years back regulators became tough on hedge funds in the usa, so it's said many moved to asia and aussie. that's one of the reasons why many market moves happen when usa sleeps.

    boom-boom no refi:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/you-know-it-s-a-tough-market-when-ben-bernanke-can-t-refinance.html

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  51. John "motivational speaker" Ing

    ReplyDelete
  52. You know what is hilarious guys???

    When gold was at its high, the CASH4GOLD centers EXPLODED.

    EVERY common citizen sold their scrap gold at the TOP. Imagine that. So much for the smart money experts

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The common citizen so far has not been selling or buying gold at all in any great volume. Almost no one holds gold outside of institutions.

      Also the debt ceiling not being raised until the last second in 2011 was the reason gold went to $1900 Fear of default, recall?

      The common guy was not lining up then to buy gold, and the common guy could care less about gold still to this day.

      Delete
    2. the other funny thing was when a couple countries came up with gold atm's; nobody talks about that

      Delete
  53. "The common guy could care less about gold to this day"

    I know, because they sold all their scrap at the top!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That tiny percentage of the population that holds gold must be geniuses if they were smart enough to run out and sell what they had at the $1900 top.

      We should ask them when gold is going up again so we know when to buy.

      Delete
  54. Dan, if 1180 is broken intraday then will 1100 come into focus or does gold need a daily or weekly close below 1180 before 1100 comes into focus?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Nice little bump in gold this morning. HDH is it time to short or buy DUST again?

    ReplyDelete
  56. I guess I am just spoiled reading Dan for all this time, but I just want to ask one thing, and that is, regarding Mr. Spellcheck, and his fractured syntax, incorrect grammar and cycles of yore, to wit: Does he not have an editor, or friends to point out these weaknesses, or does he flat out just not care? I just do not get it, but maybe that is my weakness, and if so, so be it. I guess if I stick around till 2032.75, all will be well.

    Good trading everybody and beware the FOMC as always.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  57. Until Martin posted a recent US political cycle that goes out to 2085, I thought that perhaps Armstrong was trying to get his readers to believe that Christ was coming back in 2032.

    Two days---2000 years--after he went back to his father would be around 2032... and the .75 might land on a Jewish fall festival.

    Maybe now, "all will be well" up to 2085.

    ReplyDelete
  58. It doesn't look like there's much interest in gold as it sits there yawning just below $1200.

    ReplyDelete
  59. ...and there it goes, a big yawn up to $1201.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Careful Dark; platinum has rallied $55 off its lows and is showing signs of a pretty good key reversal.

    ReplyDelete
  61. america woke up to a commodity/euro bounce, hedgies overseas liked the low prices!

    cattle: iceberg sells @ 166 friday are iceberg buys @ 166 monday.

    Nov14 soybeans daily R2 934'2. on the last usda report release the high was ~~930

    we're still not gonna sell any wheat, probably need a 450 test later or sooner.
    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russia-exits-wheat-export-markets-europe-to-benefit/

    the eur/usd has alot of resistance here to 1.27.. looks like keep power dry for turn around tuesday in all the downtrenders that are bouncing today.

    VIX a perfect touch of 20-day MA and now 'i'll hammer in the morning'

    mahvelous monday!

    ReplyDelete
  62. the C-Team! coffee and cattle moon!
    the dry brazil also helping soybeans.

    nov soybeans hit 944 on 9/23..ought to be resistance 940-44 on weekly R1 and those highs.

    dec corn the 20-day MA resistance zone at 332 and the big down day into 331 on 9/19

    NQ held 1st test of 4000 round number zone, interesting the equities can't go as the dollar gets low!

    ReplyDelete
  63. As you all know, I do have issues with Mr. Spellcheck, while at the same time I do in fact agree with him in a lot of areas, such as his latest post on impeaching the monster Obama. I completely AGREE !!

    ReplyDelete
  64. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ...and the mortar attacks on the US Green Zone in Baghdad continues.

      Looks like the US/Arab Coalition is going to allow ISIS to take that town which borders Turkey.
      On the surface it makes little sense that a concerted airstrike effort doesn't seem to be taking place to thwart the ISIS advance.
      I believe there's a shrine or memorial of some important historical Turkish figure (Suleiman?) that I can't recall at the moment within Kobani.
      However, Turkey actually claims that land within Syria (Syria has allowed this for decades) as it's own sovereign territory.

      It seems to me that if ISIS attacks, damages or destroys the shrine that Turkey (not to mention NATO) has the excuse it needs to defend its territory while also giving NATO the automatic right to defend a fellow NATO country under attack.

      Will Kobani be sacrificed so that Turkey/NATO can get involved in Syria or Iraq? Is that where the "boots" are going to come from?

      If NATO becomes miltarily active within and around Turkey what might Putin think about NATO (and US forces) becoming militarily active in Turkey given the Ukraine situation that seems to still be smoldering.

      Allowing Kobani to be overrun might serve a twisted dual purpose down the road.

      Delete
  65. You have to be extremely nimble or extremely insane to trade the metals during the day. The resulting triple bottom has 'W' formations in each bottoming leg leading to short term bounces. The overall formation is now a launch pad or a diving board? Probably a diving board since the current low ended in a lower low. Waiting for the spike low to $1,000-$900 to finally clear out the cobwebs.

    Bargain hunters showing up being spooked by their falling currencies or maybe the US$ can buy more gold at the current ratio. Anyway, no sense getting excited over a one day move sans some world markets being on hiatus.

    ReplyDelete

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