"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Late Session buying coming into Equities.

Bulls begin to stir once again as we wind down today's session.

The S&P 500 just missed falling into correction territory ( near 1813) but has since rallied up from near that level. Apparently the "buy the dip" sentiment has not yet given up the ghost.

I am closely watching the resistance zone noted on this hourly chart. If the bulls can take it back through that level they have a chance at having put in a short term bottom. Even so, the big spike back up is giving them a sigh of relief at this point ( although I must admit that the session is not yet ended as I am typing these comments).


  1. Dan -

    Thanks for all that you do!! Question. How would you explain gold's movement, or lack of movement today? Thanks!!

  2. Jmsvett;

    I mentioned earlier that it is caught between its safe haven status and its liquidity which can be used to sell it to cover margin calls on long equity positions.

    Also, there are still are great number of headwinds that gold is going to have to deal with if deflation fears really take hold in a larger way.

    Also, today the Dollar has been ping-ponging all over the place. that is leading to some pretty good swings in the gold. silver is dealing with trouble from copper.

  3. Exciting times! Golds been showing the way down for the last three plus years now most markets are following. I suspect the FED and Wall street will not be able to take the pain Gold bulls have endured, expect a taper reverse and QE4 soon. Gold will resume it's bull market.

  4. I have been burnt many a time trying to catch a bottom ( good recent example is SDRL).

    I hope you are a lot luckier than me ( only lucky guys and liars regularly catch bottoms)

  5. that's a bad close for DX under 85, taking euro to 1.283...

    gold bulls get the ball back in their court on this DX close, had GC volume of 249,000 contracts which looks bullish as it didn't take out any lows.

    TY record volume and all the stock market volume being so high though, implies SPX lows and bond highs will get retested later or sooner.

    russell RUT ended up +1% far and away this week's leader after being this year's biggest loser of the majors INDU SPX NDX RUT NYSE. one thing the small caps can relate to is an improving usa economy, and how about the $100 billion in consumers pockets from this 1,00 drop in unlead gasoline! RUT also less affected by DX.

  6. Opportunities are setting up here aplenty. I don't think this is over for the S&P, but another 5% or so down and it would be very investable.The dollar is plummeting down at the speed of light, and may also do a V shaped turn. Gold, however is meandering disconsolately upwards without firm conviction, which it may well continue to do for a while, before turning down again.

    All these look very interesting. How do I know? The only thing I know is that I know that I know that I don't know. However the old bug like antennae are waving away in front of my face telling me what to do.

  7. ags CZ-SX may have set the range highs today at 3.60-9.75 and expect about 3.20-9.10 to hold until nov 10th usda report and brazil crops off to a good start.
    ZW 5.22 the 50-dma and all the chart points Dan showed at 5.20 strong res.
    they bought ZW at the 10dma touch last time.

    seeing more blurbs like that one posted last week from the grain co ceo that 'elevators will be out of storage about oct 20th.'

    (Reuters) funds sell 12K corn, 9K beans and 4K soy oil while buying 3K meal. (net of course)


  8. ... NFLX ... down a hundred and fifteen bucks after hours ... ! that right there puts some little miners to shame ! Now , any comments about how many poor people just got decimated ... ? should we bring back the spanish inquisition so management can be taken care of accordingly ? Perhaps shut down mega perma bullish sites such us Market Watch ?

    I am sorry , I couldn't resist ... I bet you will find tomorrow morning if not tonight , talking heads in CNBC and other scam channels talking about how such a great opportunity it is to buy the dip ... once in a life time opportunity ... the time is now ... alla Jim Crammer ... right Mark ? did you perhaps happen to buy the dip today ? it looked like a real bargain at 450 bucks right at the close ... oh well , i sincerely hope you didn't .

    1. thats what , 5 billion wiped out in a few minutes ? and some people call Jim Sinclair a scam ... you have to laugh ... anyway

    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    3. On Reed Hasting's behalf, NFLX has revenue & free cash flow. Even with the $100 haircut, at $350 it's up over $300 from about $20 in 2008 and $10 in 2005. Better than pretty much every miner, even RGLD

    4. Yeah but you can't watch gold on your new giant plasma TV (bought with your visa of course). Warren says gold is useless.... What a joke.

    5. yes MDLGTO , I guess then its a great buy at 350 bucks ... you know , thats what makes a market . If you bought it at the close today , I am sure you must be really happy that you will be able to buy them tomorrow at a 25% discount . I am not defending the miners , I all I am saying is that money has no colour , If NFLX is your thing , go ahead buddy , have fun holding it long term . For me these markets are broken , only trade the stock market intra day .

    6. @Anon. Not saying it's a great deal now --just that you would have made a pile of money on the shares. Listen to the charts & not the pundits. Nothing is not a scam.

    7. right now , its all about flows , in my opinion , and the problem that I have is that everyone and their pet is counting on a rally into the elections , the charts are telling me to keep out , since we are making lower lows every day now ... and Jannet Yellen on the other hand has been quoted as saying that everything is fine and dandy ... so no more coolaid for the time being ... so whats to like ? I tell you what the CBOE skew got decimated today , 12% , thats a green flag ... but like I say ... I see a lot of turbulence in the short term , and a lot of uncertainty after the elections ... so thanks but no thanks , I may trade intraday here and there , but there is no way I am holding anything over night

    8. If apple comes with an improved apple tv tomorrow, i think nflx will continue going lower.

  9. The big red bar today doesn't look that great for the dollar but one has to wonder after today's news is digested if the dollar will resume its strength. Compared to Europe, China, and Japan, the US still has the best looking house in the neighborhood. The 23% retracement at the 85 level is still in tact for all practical purposes. Its a relatively shallow retracement so far.

  10. Dan,

    This was sent to me by Bloomberg @ 2:30pm :

    "Federal Rederve chair Janet Yellen said to voice confidence in expansion amid foreign risks"

    I think this was the reason the market reversed course calming market participants worries. For now.

  11. By 'foreign risks' Yellen was likely referring to Europe, she should have been referring to Ebola. Three weeks from now that is all people will be talking about. Duncan came _before_ Obama told the world that we are the Ebola dumping grounds. He said we have little room for error, but that apparently includes everything we've seen so far, with a domestic outbreak of unknown proportions. In the very near future people will be loathe to fly unless it is absolutely necessary, and to do so they will have to endure added 'security' measures when they travel. We've already had a half dozen plane related scares, it will get worse from here.

  12. This would upset the markets. Not the end of the world but a slowing world. Sell some stocks in certain sectors and invest in others but which other ones?

    'Wal-Mart cuts sales outlook amid tough economy'

    "...Wal-Mart's diminished outlook increases concern about prospects for the critical holiday shopping season that kicks off late next month. It also comes on the same day that the government reported that September retail sales retreated from the prior month..."

  13. I would be delighted to hear how you arrive at that conclusion, and how merely being an Asian makes you an immediate expert on all things Eastern, I am from Epic research.

    1. The bot actually read the post?

    2. Nidhi Singh;

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  14. The Sp500 tries to test this resistance


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