"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Hawkish Sounding Fed ends QE

Well, we got it. By, "it", I am referring to the final end of the tapering process that the Fed began so long ago I cannot even remember but will conclude at the end of this month.

Throw on top of that some happy talk about the US economy, in particular the job market (where that came from is unclear) by referring to "solid job gains", and that is all it took to send the US Dollar sharply higher on the crosses. Of course they had to throw in that falling unemployment rate but we all know the reason for the lower number is because the labor participation rate continues to decline. Where they also came up with the phrase, "that labor market slack is gradually diminishing" escapes me as well especially when we stop counting the folks out of work!

Perhaps, if you mean by "gradually diminishing", the sort of speed that one can observe when watching a blade of grass grow, then I will happily grant them that. We all know that is a bunch of hooey for if that was true, WAGES would be RISING, and not flat/stagnant as they currently are.

That was the major phrase however that got the currency markets all roiled as that phrase was not in the previous releases. As a matter of fact, I seem to distinctly recall the Fed being on record as being concerned about that labor market slack being substantial.

Hey - its election time; what more can I say. The Fed boss has to keep her boss, happy, if you know what I mean.

TAlk about overdoing it however. Where I come from, the idea that there is "underlying strength in the economy to support ongoing progress towards maximum employment in the context of price stability" is something we feed to mushrooms.

Are they kidding me?

Regardless, the talk in the market as a result turned to that interest rate hike thing once more. As before there was nothing in this month's release that would give any concrete evidence of a set date for an actual hike. What we got was the same as before - the Fed promised to keep interest rates low for " a considerable time". Where have we heard that before?

By the way, regular readers of this site are aware of that TIPS spread chart that I post regularly comparing the change in the spread to the price of gold and using it as a type of forecasting tool for the price of gold. The Fed noted falling inflation expectations as indicated by that spread. They also noted the move lower in energy prices but oddly enough came up with the idea that they did not expect downward pressure on inflation to last.

Where did they get that insightful view from? It sure as hell has not been from watching the CRB index or the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index or the Velocity of Money or any other such actual useful data. I guess they just said it because it sounded good! Seriously, I see no data that gives the slightest reason at this point to believe that the downward pressures on inflation is to be of short duration.

Then again, maybe they have been watching the slaughter in the grain markets and that has gotten them all revved up about food inflation.

This missive will be short for the moment as I am utterly exhausted from trading in the grains, which have become about as bizarre as I have ever seen them.

Meal once again led the entire grain floor sharply higher and for now, it looks as if one set of shorts is getting slaughtered each and every day at this point. Margin clerks are having their hands full forcing specs out of those positions and a veritable bloodbath is taking place.

At some point the temporary supply deficit in meal will be eliminated and then we will go from nothing to a glut. I am not sure how long it will take to fill the pipeline again but when it goes, it will go with horrible ferocity.

While this will not endear me to gold bulls, gold was flattened on the FOMC news and is currently down over 1%. The HUI is a bloodbath having fallen 3.25% at this time while the junior-laden GDXJ is being soaked, down 5.55% at this moment.

I honestly believe we going to see some junior miners disappear before this is all done. Be careful what you buy out there if you want to be a "hero contrarian" and start buying junior miners.

Take a look at this ratio chart briefly comparing the HUI to the price of gold and creating a ratio. It hit a level that was last seen - are you sitting down as you read this - December 2000! That is FOURTEEN YEARS AGO.

I said this before in a recent post and will say it again now, either the price of gold is too high and needs to fall further or the mining stocks are undervalued against the price of gold and need to move higher. Based on what I am seeing today, I see nothing to persuade me any differently. I still think gold is heading lower. Either that or some of these mining companies are history.

Notice on the gold chart that the metal has fallen to the support zone marked near the $1220-$1210 level. It is currently BELOW that level. the way it is trading at the moment ( and of course this could change) it does look as it a test of $1200 is coming. The reason I say that is because the price has fallen well below the middle line of the Bollinger Band indicator with the lower band sitting near $1197.

The ADX is still choppy suggesting that this move is a move back to the bottom of a wide range that has been in place for nearly a month now. However the clear break to the upside of the -DMI (red line) shows near term momentum with the bears.

To get out of the mess that they now find themselves in, the bulls are going to have to clear that downtrending 50 day moving average again. That is way up there near $1240 at the moment.

Incidentally, it does look as if Mr. "gold will be well north of $2000 before the end of this year and silver north of $50" has struck out once again. I am not trying to rub salt into a wound  - I am merely repeating something I have said here repeatedly in an attempt to teach and WARN readers - DO NOT FOLLOW ANYONE who claims to know in advance where a market is going. Here is the truth - THEY DO NOT KNOW in spite of their hubristic and reckless claims to the contrary.

Proof is in the price chart for the metals but I can say the same thing about these grains. Most of us who trade the grains for a living all had ideas where we thought the grains were heading. Most of us were also wrong!

I will try to get some stuff up later on the bean meal and the grain markets. The action in there has taken on a life of its own and a full-out money game is now what is occurring. Panic buying - despair- forced short covering due to margin calls - blown to pieces and to hell in a handbasket hedges are being obliterated. You name it - it is taking place in there.

I can tell you one thing - there are some very angry traders out there right now and some very angry hedgers at what has transpired. This is what happens when techicals take over a market and then take on their own life. Fundamentals are essentially irrelevant when positions are getting blown to hell. About the only thing that matters right now is who has the beans?


  1. Hi Dan,

    Thanks so much for all that you do - your honesty is refreshing with all of the 'noise' out there.

    What are your thoughts on the 20% gold backing vote in Switzerland. It still is early, but it seems to be gathering momentum in Switzerland.


    1. Here is Dan's response to my question earlier on the same subject

      "eric webber;

      Thanks for posting this. I have been meaning to comment on it but did not want to take a major post to do so.

      I do not thing the initiative is going to pass once people learn that if it does,. the Swiss National Bank is not going to be able to defend its "currency peg" of the franc against the Euro.

      to do so, they will be forced to buy huge amounts of gold which will effectively cripple the ability of the bank to keep that currency where it is against the Euro. the more folks learn about the necessity of them keeping the Franc from becoming too strong and killing their economy ( and jobs), the less support the initiative will garner.

      We'll see how it goes but I think it is unrealistic."

    2. Like Dan, this would surprise me given that they are desperately trying to thwart off deflationary pressures – and this referendum is all about strengthening the Swiss Franc as a safe haven in the name of sacrificing its economic prosperity (which is counter intuitive). Furthermore, if this does pass, they have 5 years to implement it – so who knows when the gold buying would begin. As such, why wouldn’t they just wait until gold dropped to $1K before buying – get it all over with and then be done?

    3. FYI the idea that a weak currency is good for exports is a keynesian fallacy.

      The Euro went from .80 to 1.45 and German exports soared. The USD went from 120 to 80 on the DXY and exports fell.

  2. No surprise to see the FOMC reaction was gold negative/USD positive.

    I think the bounce back in both of them by weeks end in the still ongoing reaction will be indicative of how this trends out.
    Lower gold and silver, higher USD, relatively stable oil $85 +/- and no crashing equity/bond markets in November.

    QE is over. The taper was in fact real.
    Of course, some will still dispute reality.

    Some of the folks who were mistaken or misled folks all the way down from $1900 & $48 should step aside at some point if their true intent was to help people.
    They've directly or indirectly helped cause lots of headaches or misery to other folks bottomlines while padding their own.
    I don't think that's a stretch to say.

    Thanks Dan, appreciate your thoughts as always.

    1. This is sure a time for contrarians. Gold stocks hitting 2008 lows. Just like BP hit its 2008 low before bouncing and not looking back. It felt exactly the same. I remember people saying, if I had money , I would have bought BP in 2010. Yeah right. Buy gold stocks now then ..

    2. LOL At "M" -- always willing to give us all a nice laugh

  3. I would like to become a "savvy" investor: does this mean I need to learn pidgin French, or just how to shoot my mouth off with the benefit of hindsight?


    1. Ophelia;

      We have an old trader's saying:

      He bought the first break lower in the market; then he bought the next break and the next and finally he became the break when he was now broke!

    2. It's a tough game. The big miners in Nevada and Canda are probably already getting their bailout pleas written up. Think of all the jobs that could be lost. And all the money the farm lobby gets. The farmers get all the money . Why not the miners ? The mining business is probably the only industry left that isn't on some sort of corporate welfare.

  4. it's said that moves can begin the day after a fomc decision, as big money digests the info and makes a decision.

    bonds got some dip buying, the long bond futures are almost a point above the low o day.

    stocks got dip buying as well, as SPX low o day was the 5-dma touch. it's true SPX rarely goes down into an election, as the powers that be like to have voters happy.

    powder dry in gold is the setup, now talk is that gold will close this year as it closed last year (a $150 drop).

    cheerio, only 2 sessions to go!

  5. Silver tapping sub-$17 four times within 30 days is not a good sign going forward...unless you're hoping that it falls much further.

    And to think that at one time Max Keiser and the other pumpers were yoodling as fact that JPMorgan could be overwhelmed by the public buying so much silver that it would damage JPM in some serious manner.

    It seemed absurd back then and at this point it's sadly laughable except to those who can't believe what they became tangled in.

    Silver is headed towards $15 and gold towards $1150 and the USD to 87+
    All the talk of various imminent collapses were wrong all the while the one in gold/silver was never mentioned as even being possible.

    What could they possibly have left to say once $1180 is breached and silver has a $15 handle?

    1. Nothing.

      And that's what bottoms are made of. Or is this time different ?

    2. @DPH

      What percentage of people in NA do you think own investment grade silver bullion? Just curious with your above comment.

    3. My guess would be 1-2% max. that people purposely seek silver out for purchase. It might be less than 1% for all I know.

      One look at a 10 year silver chart (or gold), coupled with all the negative media, might be enough to scare most people away.
      The hardcore bugs will buy no matter what and that's not a slam on them, it's their money.

      I'll buy more at some point again when it seems bottomed out and a trend reversal seems to be developing.
      Personally, I'll lean heavier if not exclusively more towards gold at this point when that opportunity seems right.

      I have plenty of silver and not enough gold in my opinion right now and I'm at 30/1 ratio at this point fwiw. I need to tighten that up considerably in due time.
      I'd love to see sub-$1000 gold!

    4. "What could they possibly have left to say once $1180 is breached and silver has a $15 handle? "

      um, buy the f*****g dip" ?

    5. Less then 1%. Way less.

    6. Peckerwood...lol! No doubt.

      M...thanks. I thought it might be a really low number, wasn't sure.

  6. The freegold theroy predicted this 10 years ago. Miners going bankrupt as the DOW breaks records. It's all on the Fofoa website.

    Does Dan have a take on freegold/fofoa ?

  7. Dan... Just wanted to say great job on your posts!!! I've been reading for a few years without posting and have truly enjoyed your observations and analysis. I've learned a lot!!! Keep up the good work :)

    1. strykker31;

      thanks for taking some time to write those encouraging words and, Welcome!

  8. Is this Bollinger Bands I see on Dan's charts? Yipeee!!! Thanks! :) :)

    Dan, you are talking about the end of QE.
    What about this?


    I'm not a specialist, so if I summarize, they seem to say that QE or no QE, central banks are still injecting some 200 billion $ every quarter in the markets to avoid a crash?
    Is this kind of true, or another strange theory?
    Thanks for your lights, and wish you great trades so that you can have great time afterwards with family.

    1. ZH is about as trustworthy as the national enquirer. The site is a marketing/publicist cite for gold run by a guy who is banned from trading due to insider trading.

    2. Eric, do you seriously think the Fed is trustworthy? Hell the Fed tried to block an audit that according to the GAO, the Fed surreptitiously loaned out 16 trillion off balance sheet to the too big to fail banks all over the world to keep the financial system from collapsing in 2008 to 2010.

    3. @HDH

      When you include Belgian and increased China purchase, and the continued rolling over and interest from the Fed balance sheet, there was no reduction at all.

    4. @ Mad Man, The line of Bull Crap that you just copied and pasted from ZH is precisely what I am talking about.

    5. BTW - I am a Jeffersonian Classical Liberal - not far from a Libertarian Constitutionalist. As such, I used to be very bullish on Gold. However, in 2012, I began to wonder why in the world we were not seeing any hyper-inflation. It is then that I began to investigate and realize that the VAST majority of the alarmism out there is nothing more than marketing for the sake of selling gold. FEAR is a great motivation factor in selling gold. ZH does nothing more than to play on your fears to either get you to read their content like a cult member or for you to do something like buy gold. The same is the case for the thousands of gold charlatans that are out there. I believe greatly in individual freedom, however, not getting my way in the way that government is structured is no excuse for me to begin using baseless rhetoric to manipulate others into a specific action. It is unethical to resort to alarmism so that I may seek what I may consider a “justified ends” – otherwise I’d be a basic collectivist who thinks it ethical for the “ends” to always justify the “means”. In the end it is better to keep a level head, be pragmatic and objective about what you are looking at. America’s economic Freedom has fallen from 6th in the world to 12th in the world. We are going the wrong way – YES – but we still are far freer than the vast majority of the world. This means we can still have economic growth. Please do not try to sell the apocalyptic viewpoint that everything is about to go to hell – and that we ought to go buy loads of gold to protect us.

    6. Eric, I did not receive my info on the 16 trillion off balance loans of the Fed from zerohedge...got it from Forbes, the Government Accounting Office and berniesanders.gov. I never mentioned gold, and your verbal ballistic attack on me just undermines your credibility. It appears, you have a difficult time handling facts...unless of course you do not trust the GAO audit and think surreptitious off balance loans to the tune of 16 trillion by the Fed is okay as a Constitutionalist. Your unbridled trust in the Fed is pure hypocrisy if you are a Jeffersonian.

  9. VIX got it's 2nd close below 50-day SMA today, but did move away from the 200-day which is at 14.06.. VIX moved from low at 14.16 to a high of 16.28, then stock dip buying commenced.

    SPX low o day was 1968.04 and it's 50-day SMA closed at 1967.36.

    copper HG closed about on the 50-day at 3.08, one more strike is in the news mix and that's in chile.

    be interesting when asia awakes, will they take the eur/usd down here or start bringing it back up.

  10. Kind of hilarious, Goldman comes out lowering forecasts for 2015 and 2016 global GDP. Wonder where US growth is going to come from with a higher dollar and shrinking exports. Must be the growth from those minimum wage part time jobs that will drive consumer demand LOL...can't make this crap up. Dan's characterization of the Fed's statement concerning jobs sums up the Fed's bizarre economic outlook and forecasting as unreliable as usual. The Fed never gets it right. The question is, why do markets even listen to the Fed Head idiots and the Steve LIESman CNBC hacks.

  11. burlington northern railroad has 350 unit trains dedicated to crude oil service—a huge drain on capacity—especially in northern half of Midwest where 80% of
    US soybean crushers are located.

    CSX and Norfolk Southern are said to be short on crews.

    ethanol is taking up alot of trains.

    big export program for beans and meal on the books.. rumors crushers are double booking trucks due to lack of rail.

    last year the autumn soybean rally went +2.00... in big crop year 2009 beans did about what we're doing now, and then dropped large in november!

    SPX lod was 1969.04 yet another typo...cuing up loverboy:
    Everybody's workin' for the weekend!!

  12. No wonder that the gold mining companies are in deep trouble when you consider that the cost to mine an oz is 1200 USD on avarage. The companies are already high grading their deposits and we are beyond peak discovery of new deposits. Either the demand for gold has to come down and mines must close or the price of gold will go up in the next couple of years. Also remember that the gold price in most other currencies are holding up quite well.

    1. I don't believe the cost of production above 1000USD

    2. Some miners publish figures well below $1000. Not sure I believe it. Time will tell when they run out of cash.

  13. Dan,

    Its interesting the Fed did not mentioned a word on Europe economy hurting US. They learned a hard lesson last time.

  14. Dan, when you write above you sound very skeptical about the figures they put out, as if it is just some sort of game to fool the public. This would presumably mean you are also skeptical about the recovery. Other times you have inferred there really is a recovery taking place, or do you mean that there is just the perception of a recovery?

    For my own part I find it very difficult to understand how a recovery could possibly take place when, according to Professor Kotlikoff, there is a 200 trillion dollar debt liability in the US. This figure is so fantastic, assuming it is correct, that the future looks very dire indeed, or perhaps everything will get better if we pretend it doesn't exist. Not to mention the big banks that are debt ridden and rotten to the core, and a host of financial companies that continue in existence, simply through tricks of false accounting, or being propped up by endless supplies of Fed created funny money.

    I certainly agree that markets are affected by the perception and not necessarily the reality, but in your opinion how much longer can they be supported by what appears to me to be little more than psychological juggling?

    By the way, it is interesting to note what Greenspan recently said about the Fed. That it is basically powerless, and must answer to Congress about its policy, being far from an independent entity, and is not to blame. He is implying that the economy is going to have serious problems, or what he called 'turmoil', and he preferred to use that word he said, rather than 'crisis' - perhaps because of his antecedent associations with the Fed itself, and if he didn't have to be discreet, actually meant the latter word rather than the former.

    1. Dan and Peter in case you missed it, QE did not actually fully end today.

      True the Fed's QE purchases ended today but the Fed also made up a new rule that the banks now have to purchase US treasury bonds.

      CNBC showed a chart of one of the banks treasury bond purchases increasing today.

      Just amazing what these guys will do to try and prop this house of cards up.

    2. Greenspan said NOT that the economy was heading to turmoil. Rather, that the Fed pulling out of the intervention in monetary policy may cause turmoil.

    3. barneyb6;

      question for ya... where is the bank that CNBC noted getting the money with which to buy these bonds? Is it their own revenue coming from earnings, deposits, etc., or is the Fed directly providing them the money with which to do this? did CNBC specify that? I am curious.

      the reason is because when the Fed bought the bonds it essentially creates the money out of thin air. the banks buying the bonds, which is what primary dealers are required to do if they take on the role of a primary dealer are not given the money by the government but rather serve as a source of demand for the bonds.

    4. Peter;

      no, I do not believe that the economy is very strong at all. I do believe that there is great untapped potential in the US however and that if we were ever to get a change in the administration to one that is actually not hostile towards business as the current one is, it would unleash the American entrepreneurial spirit ( especially in the oil and gas industry) and would go a long way towards creating some real growth. The size of the debt means we must have growth to service it at a strong pace and not the abysmally weak growth that we currently have.

      But when it comes to the markets, I have to try to read how they are interpreting what the Fed says and how sentiment is shifting. That is what drives markets, and as you know, it does not necessarily have to be true!

    5. Correct. This is not a 'new rule'...this is how it has been for quite some time. Each bank's Fed funds window must be closed by EOB. Barney, I think you are just describing how banks reconcile their balance sheet on a daily basis. This is not news.

    6. Hey Dan not sure where the banks get the money, but banks are allowed to create money out of thin air from deposits to loan out, perhaps they do it that way?

      Here is the CNBC video and some of the write up below.

      "But because of new regulations requiring the country's big banks to hold more liquid assets, new buyers from Wall Street have been stepping up.
      Since the "tapering" of the Fed's bond buying began in earnest in December 2013, U.S. commercial banks' holdings of Treasury and agency securities (not including mortgage-backed securities) rose to $605 billion, a 23 percent increase. Including mortgage-backed securities, that total swells to $1.97 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis."


    7. Dan, I love what you do here and this is, to my knowledge, one of the greatest sources for logical discourse on the internet, and undeniably one of the greatest founts of knowledge in the commodities arena. However, I'm confused by what you refer to as the administrations hostility towards the gas and oil industry. Coming from the border of North Dakota, I know that huge growth is occuring here. BTW, I know not what the Keystone project would offer Americans (except for temporary land access monies...which would soon go dormant).

    8. Barney, Yep. They do it that way. Commercial banks used to be required to have off-setting asset requirements prior to dismantling of Glass-Steagull. Dodd-Frank regulations are seeking to re-instate these requirements.

    9. Yup Joe, new regulations created just in time to help replace the Fed's QE as they tapered.

      Someone actually was helping to replace the Fed's treasury bond buying as they tapered all long. It was the banks behind the scenes pulling the levers.

      A 605 billion dollar increase this year in treasury bond and securities purchases. Unbelievable.

    10. I don't know if it matters so much what the Fed's balance sheet is...just so long as the primary dealers/banks get their bellies full.

    11. Scruff yes, it looks like the Fed has now enlisted replacements to fill their bellies with hundreds of billions in treasury bonds when the Fed is no longer filling their own belly with them.

      Its at the point of beyond ridiculous now as they try to prop this thing up.

    12. Guys. It's not part of taper IMHO.
      Banks are buying LOTS of liquid high quality bonds to meet the new capital ratio and stress test regulations. Suspect treasuries are only part of this.

      Thanks to the FEDs zero interest rate environment they get to invest at zero yield. Bad for business, hence their preference for higher yielding stocks. This increased capital thing is actually bad for stocks and supports the bond market overall.

    13. Joe;

      The drilling that is occurring is on private lands - the current admin has declared most federally-owned land ( which in the west is way too much ) off limits except for that which most in the oil industry will tell you holds little promise.

      as far as being hostile towards business - I do not have time to count the ways.... start with the burden of the misguidedly named Affordable Care Act and then keep adding to the list...

      gotta run - busy morning...

    14. Mike Ehlert;

      great comments Mike! Thanks

  15. Dan
    Great read.
    I have hoped that with the long appointments the FED and especially the head would be more independent of political pressure. Maybe they are not.

    IMHO the happy talk about the economy and employment are ment to encourage the consumer to spend instead of save. This is a primary driver in getting our sick economy going. There is no way after a 40 year war on manufacturing and industry that we can export enough in the face of a high dollar and sick Euroland to help much.

  16. I'm afraid Eur Usd is resuming its course towards 1.23.


    The MACD on this time unit just broke its propagation axis (blue line), and this is usually bearish. The inf bollinger band keeps heading down under 1.24 on the weekly time unit, it reversed down on the monthly time unit too, and as the month ends tomorrow, a new candle will start with a bollinger band even lower...so more room to push the price down without considering the market being out of statistical behaviour.

    So I wouldn't be surprised to see Eur Usd hit 1.22-1.23 come november.

    1. P.S : I'm watching the ma20 on the 2 day time unit for my stop loss here. It is now at 1.2760, and 5 out of 6 candles bounced back under it after testing it lately.

    2. P.P.S : I wouldn't short right now (1.2590), it is too low, too late, too fast, see the MACD on the 1 hour chart already very low. I'd wait at least for this MACD to make another cycle up before deciding to short.

  17. I'm pretty sure no one here is surprised to see what's taking place right now in the USD, gold or silver.
    U-G-L-Y but not unexpected :-o

  18. Look out below, miners. Metals getting swacked, and stock futures down. Should be a repeat bloodbath of yesterday, when GDX was down 4% and GDXJ was down 7%.

    Closing all-time, all-time, low on GDX was 16.37 on 10/27/08. Might as well get that out there, because it's coming into view.

  19. How long before the battle cries of..."evil cabal cartel monkies at work"...is shouted from the thrones of the Decepticons?

    1. Yeah, we'll hear all about manipulation, gubment schemes to take over the mines, naked shorts, algos, Rick (The Prick) Rule happy to buy cans of peas on sale at the grocery store, and all the rest. Run of the mill reality like tax loss selling, more sellers than buyers, and the fact that mining is a lousy business to begin with (meaning there is actually no such thing as "value" in the sector, meaning bottom fishing is potential suicide) never seem to burst on these people's consciousness.

      Don't Fight The Tape.

  20. the eur/usd a big bounce off it's lower daily chart bollinger band touch at 1.2542... above 1.2614 regains the recent range that it lost.

    russia currency rebounds off the low as well, rumors of energy deal with europe for the winter.

    speaking of winter, some record lows to be seen this weekend in east usa.

    in the ags export sales and ethanol production deemed 'good', The soymeal export book is the largest on record by an incredible margin, and is pulling meal away from the domestic sector like never before.

    soymeal options pits has the look that the problem won't be solved til jan.

    US(ZB) the long bond futs trying that former 142-00 peak on continuation chart, foreigners said to be big buyers today.


  21. Speaking before the Council of Foreign Relations Alan Greespan advocated gold as a good place to put your money, given its value as a currency outside of policy conducted by governments. Note how he refers to gold as a currency, and not as just a commodity.

  22. 18 handle on GDX. Stay tuned for 17...16...

    1. GDX (remember, those are the "blue chip" miners) now off 72% from their 9/8/11 all time high at 66.99. Talk about a destruction of capital...

    2. GDXJ (the POS miners) now off 84% from their 12/6/10 split adjusted all time high, fwiw.

    3. Somewhere out there right now, someone is thinking "Gee Whiz, glad I stuck with blue chip producers only, to reduce my risk." LOL

    4. Big write-down of assets for AUY and GG - the cream of the crop. All hope was pegged on these low cost miners. Now it's abandon hope all ye who invest in miners.

      Hope Rick Rule has some dry powder...

    5. By the way, the HUI, now under 170, is getting close to its 2008 & 2005 lows, which seem at this point to be destiny. DUST was a now brainer pre-market after the misses by AUY & GG.

    6. LOL, yeah. GG down 9% at the open. Here's a timely article from the genius Eric Sprott, just two days ago pumping the stock.


    7. Next leg down in gold/silver looks very close to happening at this point.

      KWN and the other Decepticon sites should just close shop unless they're real intention is to mislead and stoke a primitive fear response in people in order to profit from it.

      Sounds about right to me.

    8. The bottom won't be in until ZH, TFMR, and KWN all go dark. It will be like ringing a bell.

    9. ....and there go the metals....towards a $15 handle and sub-$1180.

      What angle will the Decepticons now try to sell to their herds?
      They're making it all up as they go along because they realize they have a captive audience....albeit a shrinking one.

      People are catching on.

  23. thank you Turd. i just joined your so called "free shit army". hope ya rot. btw... you can change your nickname now. i like so many missed the most obvious warning sign of all.

    1. When a guy named Turd makes an unnecessary egotistical comment such as this....(closely paraphrasing)...."Anyone who believes that gold will trade under $1050 is an a$$wipe"...what will it say about The Turdmeister who uttered it when/if it happens?

      The irony of that comment seems fitting.

  24. no time to read blog 'comments' sections, can use all research time reading people like Dan, most of whom are trying to get you to sign up for their services, so they do daily free comments or a few times a week.(those commentaries are very good, lest nobody buy their services)

    dec corn looks interesting: got a double top at 381 and export sales now deemed 'weak', and harvest pressure on deck for TGIF!

    to this point, the jan soybeans have not attracted much in the way of additional buying on trade above its 100 day moving average.

    wheat support on the poor state of crops in usa,brazil,russia, australia...corn looks weakest fundamentals.

    SI (silver) the volume will be impt. if it's higher or lower than the former low, and if it springs back above the former low to close. volume can be checked out on weekly charts as well, so a low volume weekly and spring above former low would bring out some short covering.

    gold hasn't ever tested the extreme volume on weekly chart low of 2013 (can't miss it by a few bucks like it did the last 2 times for it to count), so it should go do so and then the 1155 number (fib of 681-1923 range)


  25. HUI now trading nearly at 2008 lows when gold was $720. Interesting situation for a gambler.


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