"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Gold Stalling Out?

Gold has had a nice rally off what is now a TRIPLE BOTTOM ( which amazingly held) near $1180. In the process it has managed to clear two resistance zones; the first near $1220 and the second near $1240. It has subsequently been unable to best the 50 Day Moving Average however and has set back after some early session buying popped it above that key technical level.



The HUI, in spite of an extremely powerful rally in the broader equity markets ( the S&P 500 is up over 2% today) has been comatose which is worrisome if one is a bull.

I mentioned in yesterday's post that if the equity markets rally and especially if the VIX moves lower, gold was going to encounter some selling pressure. That it is doing at the moment. It does however remain higher on the day although well off the best levels reached earlier in the session.

Tomorrow will therefore be important for the short term future of the yellow metal. If it does indeed set back from here, how it handles itself if price does fall towards $1240 will be key in deciphering its next move. Failure there and it will drop back to $1220 as discouraged bulls and emboldened bears will assert themselves.

If the metal manages to attract enough dip buyers to keep it afloat above $1240, the action will be more indicative of a pause or rest in a market that wants to make a run towards $1280. Thus the jury is out at this point.



Buying has been good out of Asia ( what else is new ) but Western-based investment demand is miserable as witnessed by the plunging reported holdings in GLD.

Some want to make some sort of big deal out of this claiming that the "GLD is being "drained" or "raided" to meet demand from the East" but that is an explanation looking for an argument. Who cares who is buying it? No one in the perma gold bull camp seemed to care when the reported holdings were soaring several years back now were they? We could turn the latest theory on its head and say the following:

"Western-based investment demand is pulling gold from all corners of the world to meet it". The simple truth is that for every buyer there is a seller. Some act as if once this gold is bought by some nebulous "East" that it will never be sold again. That is pure rubbish! Gold is bought and sold every day in China as well as in India or Vietnam or anywhere else in the nations that comprise the "East".

Western-based money managers chase yield. If they feel that gold is going to put in a good performance or if they require a safe haven asset in which to park some excess funds, they will buy the metal. If they do not, they will not buy it.

I am on record here as stating that I believe falling reported holdings in GLD is not bullish. If was bullish on the way up for gold way back when, then it is bearish on the way down. One cannot have it both ways.

That is why I am watching this rally with some skepticism. For now, the bulls are in technical control of the market with the chart in their favor.

Let's see what we get tomorrow.

By the way, the Euro plunged on the ECB potential corporate bond buying news.



It stalled out exactly at the former support zone near 1.2800 which is now serving as overhead resistance. The recent bump higher has relieved the oversold reading on the weekly chart so perhaps the currency is reading to resume its move lower. We shall see on that as well.

Lastly for now, the soybean meal market which I noted earlier today, posted a very strong close above the $340 level. It continues to pull the soybeans, AND THE CORN higher.

Wheat was pulled higher by talk of planting delays for the soft winter wheat crop in the Eastern portion of the Corn Belt. It popped above $5.20 which is a big level but failed to CLOSE above that line. Wheat bulls can expect to see $5.40 if they can dislodge the bears near this level.

There has been a rather significant amount of short covering by the funds in this market but that is the reason why one has to closely watch these resistance levels. The stronger hands, who have not been squeezed out, are still looking for a level against which to sell. For now they seem to have found it near $5.20. This is shaping up to be an interesting battle.




60 comments:

  1. Thanks , Any idea why it shows 1240 50dma in my platform .. i m looking at the daily just like you ... Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan - Thanks for another great post! I'm curious about something: In the first sentence, you mentioned gold's triple bottom. I have noted that the previous two lows were actually above 1200 when looking at a weekly chart. It was only the most recent one that actually closed below 1200 (I think it was at 1192). So even though gold did get below 1200 on the previous two trips, both of those weekly candles had long wicks. The weekly closes on the three downtrends were 1210, 1205, and 1192 if I remember correctly. Am I just splitting hairs, or do you think there is any relevance to this? The other thing to consider is that on both of those previous lows, the USD was nowhere near as strong as it is now, and the rest of the commodities complex was also trading relatively higher than it is now. It seems like gold is the only outlier in the commodities sphere. Sooner or later, I've got to believe that it's going to get in line with the others.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I would also add that the miners seem rather anemic. Often the miners reverse course before the metals, but in this case that is not happening. If the DXY heads back toward 87, and especially if it breaks it toward 90, I would expect an even more vigorous attempt at breaking the $1180 region.

      Delete
  3. Thanks Dan.
    Like I said on the last thread...if the ECB is about to buy corporate bonds (or some other ABS or OMT shenanigans)and essentially bailout the largest EU corporations the market will punish the euro and boost the USD and in effect it'll re-start gold on it's path to an unlikely quadruple test of $1180.

    We're in uncharted territory these days and what seems likely or unlikely is happening more often than not at times as many of us have witnessed these last several years.

    I've been saying it for awhile...we haven't seen anything yet. Just consider how the US national debt is a glaring non-subject these days once the ceiling was essentially removed and allowed to float without need for continual (almost annual) US Congressional votes needing to take place to allow it.
    Yep...uncharted territory. And there's no fighting it, it's a fact.
    The Fed & other CB's (and the BIS especially) are going to do whatever it is they need or want to do. Their bottomline is "the" bottomline.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. from 2011 to 2013, gold actually tested 1500 level 4 times and then fallen like a rock.

      Delete
  4. Dan, also silver is not confirming the movement in gold...therefore I think gold is in a temporary bounce.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Just dreaming out loud... it would be fun for us saps who listened to KWN hype if the 1240 was the left shoulder, 1770 was the head and the right shoulder would develop of a gigantic reverse H&S... ok back to reality... and work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And by 1770 I meant 1170, oops

      Delete
    2. I'd love to see sub- $1000. Heck, why not? It'll go up again eventually.
      My guesstimate all along has been $1075-ish as a bottom.

      Sub-$1000 could cause some significant
      capitulation and redemption selling of gold or silver back into the market by the average retail stacker who'll cut their potential losses at some point.

      Delete
    3. Capitulation of paper or physical?

      Delete
    4. Probably both but I was speaking of physical for the most part.
      Some folks at some point will redeem some of their phyz if the perception or reality is that $1000 (or under) might be with us for awhile.

      I don't see myself caving in at that point, far from it. I'll hold my stack and wouldn't sell at this point seeing as how $1200 or so has held up on 3 attempts thus far.

      My phyz gold DCA is about $1450 and my silver DCA is about $27 or so.If hindsight was foresight I would've sold every phyz ounce at $1900 & $48 and bought it back around $1300 and $20 truth be told.
      There is no shortage of phyz gold or silver at the common man's retail level.
      Periodic tightness maybe, but no real shortage imho.

      Delete
  6. S&P is looking very weak right now. Looks like the next leg down is coming very soon. Gold miners also look very attractive at these levels. I will keep adding at bargain levels. I only buy majors.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lol is right webber. Have you looked at oil? lack of demand. You and Mark keep buying the S&P! BUY BUY BUY

      Delete
    2. LOL at you, not with you ... LOL

      Delete
  7. most xlnt help for traders Dan!

    ZW chicago wheat has the net fund short still thought to be -60K making it easier for the bulls.

    egypt bought 3 cargoes of wheat, of course the big zilch was from usa.

    the nov beans op-ex for friday has some thinking a push for 10.00, and wouldn't all the farmers and traders want to sell up there given a chance. ... sometimes op-ex splits the dif or a 9.50 close in this case.

    corn some blurbs say 'corn too wet to hedge' and '16% of the crop is presold', say if ZC takes out those august lows about 3.60 and hits 3.70's wouldn't many want to hit the sell button! ??

    ReplyDelete
  8. Is there anyone here that does not think we will have a sovereign (Japan, Italy, Spain, Portugal) default in the next 5 years?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We might--they happen quite frequently, most recently Argentina, a few weeks ago. What's your point?

      Delete
  9. today had the feel of a QE announcement day, when commodities and stock mkts can be so happy together in green.
    ...china econ numbers helped as well as ecb.

    if DX closes the week strongly, thus showing a bottom has gone in, would think it difficult for commodities to continue action like today.

    GC SI HG metals futures op-ex is next week, so might be able to wait til then for a decision. $HUI definitely kerplooie on each approach to the 20-day MA touch thus far.

    the movie 5th element had lee lou talking to bruce willis: big bada boom!!
    (thats the stock market this week thus far)

    NDX has the july high 3997 and NQ pivot around 4000, swinging riverboat gamblers can try a short there! the work on the downside shouldn't be over as the volume on the way up has been poor compared the the volume on the way down. dr copper needs above 3.10 at least to indicate the world is ok!

    could get 3 straight -10% days in the $VIX; would be just the 3rd time ever (10/29/1987, 1/18/1991).

    So the set up is the biggest rip out of a low in the QE3 era together with the largest Vix crush in 23 years...

    that we just had all those all time highs in many indexes in sept., helped bring the power into the snap back.

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dan please keep up the awesome work on posting your insights and opinion.
    I know its been said by others before but I really want to reiterate how invaluable it is to many of us reading your blog to have an judicious rational voice and objective market insight provided from an experienced traders perspective.


    The Gold blog sphere is filled to the brim with bulls*$t peddled by inexperienced wishful dreamers and those who seek to turn a profit on its readers.

    Unfortunately it seems that some of these hucksters don't appreciate it when their narrative is questioned by reality, case in point:

    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-gld-trust-is-being-drained/#comment-20851

    I guess if i were blatantly selling bullish reports/advice to uninformed readers on buying into junior Gold miners i too would resort to nasty name calling to defend my business model...... nuff said!


    Again, Dan your objectiveness very much appreciated so please keep up the good work and don't let the bastards grind you down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Marvin M;

      Thanks for the kind words. What is so tragic is the fact that so many naïve people believe this stuff and invest or trade accordingly. they have done nothing but lose their money for the last three years following this sort of "advice".

      It is easy to come up with theories and wild conjectures month after month Marvin to spin everything to appear wildly bullish for gold but for those of us who actually make a living in these markets and prosper, we have long ago learned to just ignore this drivel. sadly most of those who swallow this swill will never learn as they are married to gold, come hell or high water.

      Delete
  11. Looks like a standard retracement in a longer term down trend. Fib levels look like they need to be watched to provide resistance on the way up. I would be gobsmacked if those triple bottoms hold long term

    ReplyDelete
  12. Any downdraft in gold and silver will be a gift from current levels. Gold and silver have massive room to run on the upside and they will. People need to be positioned ahead of the next major leg that will take gold through $2,000 an ounce and silver over $100.

    I know this is true because I read it on the interweb: an acclaimed money manager said it http://tinyurl.com/mbala97

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. letter writer and economist, Ophelia, the kiss of death.

      Delete
    2. but but but it said it on the internet! "Coiled Spring", "Skyrocket to da Moon" - it's all true, really it is. Apparently Silver's "real" price is already way above $50/oz, because although the paper price painted on COMEX is lower, that's because ponzi and there is in fact no actual Silver available and shadow banking and China and Plunge Protection and QE. Especially QE.

      Delete
    3. ...and Stephen Leeb over at KWN is talking up China, $2000 gold and $100 silver and the need for investors to pre-position before it happens.

      Funny how they never mentioned pre-positioning at $1900 & $48 BEFORE prices collapsed.

      Oh, I forgot, that was all due to evil manipulation!

      Delete
    4. The same folks who railed that the QE taper is fake (or won't happen) stated in essence that the equity markets were supported by QE entirely and that deflation wouldn't be allowed to happen.

      Yet when the markets started falling last week the same folks started yoodling how deflation is coming and the markets would tank....thus necessitating more QE...to infinity...and beyond!

      So which is it....the markets and commodities tank due to the taper OR the taper isn't real and QE is still "secretly" being applied to the markets?

      Classic case of talking out of both sides of their mouth so they can claim they were right...because afterall that's what really matters to them...that they're seen as being smart and ahead of the curve when IN FACT...they were horribly and stubbornly completely oblivious (by choice) as the trend down played out. But now their embracing it?

      There are some obviously disingenuous folks out there who mocked, ridiculed and angrily dismissed Dan's deflationary commodities outlook long ago who have since taken up basically most of his outlooks and are now utilizing them and claiming them as their own visionary outooks.
      The shallow hypocrisy is astounding but not entirely unexpected from some. The funny part is the audience of these shape-shifter "experts" never caught on or completely ignored the 180 degree turn by their dear leader that they we're childishly mocking and ridiculing not that long ago.

      What's wrong with that picture?
      When someone's very specific prediction of continued QE after October and November passes and it doesn't come close to fruition what excuse will they then employ in December or January, February etc. when QE doesn't happen???

      QE to infinity? Ha!
      BS to infinity? It's a given.

      Delete
    5. I am A Bear of Very Little Brain: however, from recollection:

      1. When Bernanke announced the last round of QE, Gold went down instead of up

      2. When they started tapering in December, Gold went up instead of down

      This may be as plain as day to people with half a brain, but could someone explain to me how "moar" QE would necessarily be a supportive of the Gold price? If that isn't possible - or nobody wants to stick their neck out - then I'd settle for understanding how the scheduled end of QE is necessarily a bad thing for Gold

      Delete
    6. The dates I am using are:

      - announced increased QE to $85 bio: 12 Dec 2012 - Gold $1705

      - announced tapering: 19 June 2013 - Gold $1246

      - started tapering: 18 Dec 2013 - Gold $1219

      - now: $1243 odd, after touching $1390 earlier this year

      Delete
    7. DPH;

      Perhaps some can now understand the contempt I hold some of these people in. They are arrogant, peevish children but are symptomatic of the shallow, unethical generation in which we live.

      There used to be a thing called "shame". Many that infest the world of precious metals are utterly unacquainted with it.

      Keep in mind that there is an old saying however:
      "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".

      Delete
    8. "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery".

      Yes it is, except when it's utilized in a type of plagaristic-like attempt by some to dress themselves up in someone else's original thoughts.

      Classic coat tail riding.

      Delete
  13. Gold and silver taking a little hit right now as the USD benefits from the Euro skid this a.m.

    Headed towards sub-$17 silver again by weeks end?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no, DPH - over $100; it said so on the internet - http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/10/22_Chinas_Plan_For_$100_Silver,_$2,000_Gold_%26_The_Oil_Market.html

      China has it all "planned", apparently

      Delete
    2. "planned".

      Geez that word really hits a hot button with me. Tinfoilhatter blogs are always awash with comments about how everything was "planned". Market crashes are "planned". If markets go up, then it's a set up to suck the sheep in first before the "planned" crash. Metals moves are "planned", particularly when they go down. Real estate forclosures were "planned". If oil goes up, it was "planned". If oil goes down, it was "planned."

      This is a meme that feeds a childlike need for conspiracies, always hinting at some omnipotent evil doer who is responsible for all your troubles. Your failings in the markets and in life are not your fault! It was all "planned" by those all powerful bad guys. These are the Stockholm Syndrome people of investment blogs. They've been losing for so long, they now seek it out as a comfort.

      Every time I see some jackhole say such and such was "planned", I think why don't you just take a sharpie and write "LOSER" across your forehead?

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. Jackhole? Lol!
      This says it all...

      http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/12-misguided-commandments-gold-bugs-barry-ritholtz-123507310.html

      Btw EO...caught your comment a few threads ago about the Fed being part of the fundamentals that need to be taken into account. Spot on!

      It's all part of the "business as usual" I mention. Fed/CB involvement is a given and some or most of the objectionable practices that some folks seem surprised by or object to have been part of a standard operating practice that is multi-decades old.
      The same folks who were bitching and moaning about the Fed 100 years ago (if they were still alive) would still be waiting for whatever bitter alternative fantasy scenario they envisioned in a Fed-less world.
      Same thing applies today. Those who insist upon imminent collapses or "this can't go on forever" are in for a rude awakening.
      We haven't seen anything yet....but we will.

      The saying..."don't fight the Fed" is spot on and good advice overall regardless of how one iews the Fed or CB's in general.
      None of this means I love the Fed and their monetary policy because in the end I realize my sentiments mean squat.

      Some folks, myself included, have missed out on one of the greatest equity bull markets in history while witnessing one of the greatest PM bull market collapses ever.
      The reason why or how the markets got juiced up is irrelevant. The fact they did, and the consequences of that on other markets, are what matters.
      That fault or blame rests squarely on myself for not recognizing the big picture sooner.

      The perpetual blame game, like you stated, is a losers game.

      Delete
  14. Grain Open Interest Changes: #corn +5,573 #soybeans -8,291 #wheat +4,990 #kcwheat -795 .

    Gulf corn basis slipped 10 to 15 cents on increased farmer sales, but battle between crushers & exporters still intense for soybeans .

    DX stronger above 20-dma as euro slips below it's 20day, so gold didn't do this:
    The 50% retracement of the July/October decline near 1264 is the next upside pivot of note.
    silver was leading commodity on downside early.

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Oh...and that GZ/Baghdad angle I've been keeping tabs of over here for several months....just came across this....
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    ISIS Claims It Hit US Embassy In Baghdad's Green Zone

    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/22/2014 - 09:42

    "They know Baghdad. They've lived in Baghdad," said Lt.Col Oliver North, warning over the weekend that sources in Iraq believed ISIS was planning a "major attack" against the embassy in Baghdad.
    Yesterday we get some confirmation - via ISIS - that they did in fact reportedly strike the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. As Inquisitr reports, on Tuesday the Islamist militant group took credit for a mortar attack against the embassy in Baghdad.
    The group bragged about the attack on social media, claiming that there were likely casualties - “Four rockets strike Green Zone in #Baghdad; helicopters hovering over the Green Zone; ambulances heading that way after strikes!!” one ISIS militant noted on Twitter.
    As North concludes, "They are at the gates of Baghdad. They’re coming for us."

    zerohedge.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you all remember who Lt Col Oliver North is? - http://time.com/2954148/iran-contra/

      Delete
  16. 1954-1959 are important levels. Above that, bull totally controls

    ReplyDelete
  17. well NQ could only get to 3983, market backed off a SPX round number for -15 pts thus far, high o day 1949.31 ...VIX is jumpn as usual today up. DX up hurts our multinationals earnings as well.

    precious metals leading losers lists i.e. SSRI EXK HL AEM,, silver issues always will lead either way, today down with more HUI kerploooie!

    ZS novy beans hit the 50-day MA and there is a upper bollinger band there as well. the funds are still net short soybeans.

    weather:
    wheat -seeing blurbs on 100 degree heat it's only spring in australia.
    dry for coffee/sugar/beans in brazil.

    cheerio!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi 77, it's true your posts are sometimes a bit difficult to read...

      Delete
    2. do not waste your time Hubert; he is a Pakistani bot lifting comments off of various wire services from his Mom's basement ; nothing more, nothing less

      Delete
    3. Pakistani bots promote websites, 77 doesnt.

      1.66 for trx. Dividends in kind!

      Delete
    4. Jasper, be careful when referencing his links unless crashing does not bother you. Take care and continued good luck in the mkts. BTW, where is Mark?

      Delete
    5. I see 4 posts and zero links...

      I think mark is having a break. Probably will return when the final leg commences.

      Delete
  18. FYI,

    The Dax retraced towards the neckline of its Head and Shoulders just under 9000. Theoretically, there are such pullbacks before a continuation of the initial downtrend.
    The french Cac40 is forming also a double top at 4100 (highest 4117) which is a previous horizontal support and now a resistance. On the CAC, the ema15 is exactly above that level, in the 4110 area, so I took a short here, at 4100 with a stop loss at 4120. I'm playing the fact that this was only an upwards correction and we'll resume the downtrend, so let's say I'll target the 3800 level on the CAC, good enough in terms of risk/loss ratio.

    I'm helped by a MACD 4hour time unit crossing down now from the highs, so short term I hope it won't break to the upside, and if doesn't plunge, at least lateralize.
    Still, on the daily candles, I think the formation remains bullish, with MACD crossing up. So...dices are cast with a small short on the CAC40 and very very close stop loss thanks to the ema15 daily. I can easily loose on this trade once more, but it will be peanuts, and the few times I'm right, then the leverage more than compensates my wrong calls.

    I prefer to short european Das, Cac, because they've been underperforming the SP500 lately.
    Have a nice evening :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. P.S : forgot to mention, my first target on CAC40 is 3940 for a first 50% or 2/3 out quickly. Remaining 1/3 only for further drop.
      Also, 4112 = 50% fibo of the direct plunge from 4435 to 3790.
      So once more, another small help from a friendly fibo at the same resistance level, in order to easily put a stop loss just above today's highs.
      Sorry if I describe charts which are not the focus of this blog. I don't do it often but it was just to stress the fact that they've been underperforming SP500, so why not short them instead of SP? :)

      Delete
    2. I always look forward to your comments Hubert.

      Delete
  19. Wow...talk about kicking the can down the road!
    Here's Jim Rickards trying to keep everyone on board the gold/silver hopium train that's currently derailed.

    Confiscation and $40,000 gold in 2019???
    All the worlds gold to be buried in Switzerland???

    Is Jim Rickards channeling his inner Jim Willie? Are they the same person? (lol)
    I want to say..."you can't make this stuff up!"...
    but I would be mistaken.
    You be the judge.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    "Some lucky ones had purchased gold in 2014 and sold it when it reached $40,000 per ounce in 2019. By then, inflation was out of control and the power elites knew that all confidence in paper currencies had been lost. The only way to re-establish control of money was to confiscate gold. But those who sold near the top were able to purchase land or art, which the authorities did not confiscate.
    Those who never owned gold in the first place saw their savings, retirement incomes, pensions and insurance policies turn to dust once the hyperinflation began. Now it seems so obvious. The only way to preserve wealth through the Panic of 2018 was to have gold, land and fine art. But investors not only needed to have the foresight to buy it… they also had to be nimble enough to sell the gold before the confiscation in 2020, and then buy more land and art and hang onto it. For that reason, many lost everything."

    http://dailyreckoning.com/a-glimpse-into-the-year-2024/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Delusional pipedream. One might as well believe TRX will pay dividend in 2019.

      I believe there will one day be laws against people called Jim screwing over investors with insane advice for personal gain.

      Delete
    2. DarkPurple; Author, lawyer, economist = the trifecta for getting the mkts wrong. These guys, as I am sure you long ago noticed, reference each other, repeat the same tired themes, which of course are baked in the cake for 6-7 years now and on and on. Stick with Dan here, the best free site on the planet.

      Delete
    3. Agree Steve.

      The problem is that rickards has a silver tongue. He is a good entertainer. This is what charlatans are made of. His books are best sellers and that is why this gold bug thing will NEVER go away. Im starting to think this is the beginning of a new bigger cult. Everybody now has internet.

      As Dan said, professionals dont fall for this crap. But the common man? Hook line sinker.

      Delete
  20. lots of good stuff in this thread. i am in agreement with the deflation meme. gold and silver prices reflect that. i am not sure if the FED is done with QE though. it obviously hasn't worked, except to goose the stock market, keep the gov't solvent. but maybe a slow motion train wreck is preferred to taking the medicine now, so late in the game? that alone may explain another round of QE of some sort. the tough decisions should have been made many years ago. is it too late to change course now? more QE or we're sunk?

    this article is very good. it connected some dots for me. i think it would shorten the pain if people woke up, so that we could move on. so i hope this article makes the rounds on the internet. share this please.

    http://www.theautomaticearth.com/the-last-days-of-the-growth-story/

    ReplyDelete
  21. Here's a thought: someone is going to make money off gold mines, just not the people who invested in the last bubble. Kinross sold its Fruta del Norte project today to the Lundin Family of Canada for $240 million, nearly 8% of Kinross's current market cap. Kinross paid a billion dollars more for the project a few years back (FdN has 7 million oz gold & an NPV(5) of over a $1billion @$1,200/oz gold)). The reason Kinross got into trouble with the mine is the Ecuadorian govt. wanted a supertax on the mine when gold went over $1,600 oz. Those were the days. In any case, There are mines that are profitable at $1,200 gold (and $1,000 for that matter). One could see a situation where miners sell off their assets to private equity firms firms that can operate the mines at a profit. Just like when all the New York real estate families started buying assets in 2009 after the crash.

    ReplyDelete
  22. coffee and soybeans closed poorly, which makes one think the weather forecast changed in brazil.
    ...2nd day of DX charge had many commodities buyers rethinking later.

    DX looks like a decent buy on a pullback to the 20-dma let's say buy 85.645, stop or stop n reverse at 85.595, good risk reward around MA's that technical funds use.

    about time for Dan to drag out his dreaded gsci chart.. ole timers hate that gsci, because goldman just trotted it out to make more money, it's way too energy overweighted, and our ole crb was put out to pasture. the ole index, now called the CCI continuous commodity index, is back on it's 3 year low again.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Silver looks like it might give up $17 at this rate.

    And JPM was thought to be cornered and stuck with a massive short silver position (or was that a massive long gold position? ;-)) not that long ago???

    You can't make this stuff up...u'mm, nevermind.



    ReplyDelete
  24. You can't make this stuff up...

    Sorry, couldn't resist due to the absurdity of it all...

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/442037#comment-442037

    And this comes from a guy who condoned or looked the other way when his visitors private messages were monitored for attitudes considered detrimental to a couple of ego's on there?

    It's all about the money, integrity be damned. The sites disclaimer says it all and is a coat tails type of panhandler outlook.

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