"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Unleaded Gasoline notches 10 month low

The chart says it all - it is wonderful seeing some further relief at the gasoline pump!

Meanwhile, the general weakness in the overall commodity index continues with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index registering a fresh 27 month low in today's session.

Has the blow off run in feeders finally come to an end? It is a bit premature to say but this particular market has seen what can only be properly described as a buying frenzy. Those looking to secure replacement animals have been pushing the panic button due to the shortage in supply but at these levels, and based on what the board is giving for next year's cattle prices, they are locking in large losses by paying these kinds of prices. That has not seemed to matter however. Maybe it now will. We'll see.

Looking at the chart of the commodity sector in general, and the chart of the strong Dollar, it strikes me as odd, and that is putting it mildly, to see these continued calls for a surge in the gold price from the usual gold perma bulls. Upon what basis do they make such a claim? With the yield on the Ten Year above the 2.5% level, with market participants talking more and more Fed rate hikes by the middle of next year, with sinking inflation expectations as determined by the TIPS spread, such calls for sharply higher gold seem to smell more of desperation than anything grounded in objective analysis.

The only thing currently supporting gold has been geopolitical concerns. Whether that be Ukraine, ISIS, Gaza and now, the upcoming Scottish independence referendum, which has some spooked because of the shift in the polls in favor of the move as the date draws near, such things have helped to prevent what I believe would otherwise have been a sharper drop in the price of the metal.

Also helping the metal somewhat has been general skittishness in the global equity markets over that self-same Scottish vote.

In spite of such things, gold has managed to drop through one support level after another on the price chart. It lost psychological support at the $1300 level last month, fell to $1280 from where it bounced but then promptly collapsed through $1280 in grand style. It then hovered around $1260 before losing that as well. Now it is having trouble at psychological support near $1250. If it fails here, it is set up for a test of major support near and just below the $1240 level. Failure there and I suspect we will see a test of the $1200 level. Remember, based on our relatively recent analysis of the COT Reports, a lot of hedge fund, old and now stale, long positions go underwater below $1240.

For bulls to have any hopes of mounting the "Gold will trade north of $2000 this year" - You know, another seemingly failed prediction by one of the self-proclaimed 'experts" - it will first have to regain the $1300 level with some gusto but more importantly, the $1320 level. Could it do that? Sure it could as anything is possible in these markets but for now the trend is lower and the bears are in charge.

Lastly, the grain markets are continuing to monitor the weather forecasts to ascertain whether or not it is going to be cold enough, for long enough, to do much damage to crops across the northern tier of the US growing regions. For now, it does not appear that any frost event will do that much damage but traders are staying alert for any sign that models could turn a bit colder. After this episode of cold for the next couple of days, it looks as if we are going to get a warm up and a return to more seasonal temperatures.

Also on the plate is an upcoming USDA report where we will get a look at what the agency is giving for yield and production numbers. A lot of private firms have already weighed in with their numbers but USDA is still the accepted authority.


  1. Its despicable to see the blatant manipulation now going on in the petroleum sector -we all know that the barrels are empty (no doubt shipped off to "strong hands" in Asia) and all that comes out of the pumps these days is synthetic "paper" oil.

    At least the oil magnates have a proper cartel - OPEC - to do their dirty work for them, rather than JP Morgan, the Rothschilds, Queen Elizabeth II, the Illuminati or the Bilderberg Group.

  2. Your comments are mostly garbage regarding gold. Just like the London gold pool or the gold standard, the gold price now under the LBMA is fixed within a certain range. We couldn't measurably see the pressures building underneath the fixed gold standard or the London gold pool until they blew up. We cannot see the pressure building under the LBMA now either.

    So you can go on and on and kick sand in the "goldbugs" face all you want. We aren't dealing in a real market here where technical or sentiment can be applied. I am bullish on gold because I know the LBMA will blow up just like every other scheme did before it.


    1. M and Free Market;

      You two are typical of the gold cult. Very sad....

      The business of trading is making profits by studying the charts and the fundamentals, not dealing with conjectures and other fanciful theories. Markets are what they are; not what we want them to be or expect them to be. The sooner you both learn that, the more successful you will be as traders or investors.

      Deal with what is in front of you not with what you think is happening. It takes most people years to learn this and sadly, many never do.

    2. Grouping fundamentals with charts is pretty ignorant. I recall back when the CB of India bought gold from the IMF for $1046 which kicked off the run to $1900. Not one technical analyst called that move correctly. And the techies where ho hum the whole way up. Never bearish, never bullish.

      How many technical analysts were averaging down in the DOW through 2008 to 2009 ? None. But some unsophisticated investors were. Just like some unsophisticated investors are buying gold and gold stocks now.

      You are just trying to curry favor with the people who don't understand gold in general. You don't want to admit to yourself that there is nefarious forces in the gold market. We all know that you cant be a good guy, an objective or non partisan guy if you subscribe to any sort of non mainstream view of gold.

      All of your charts in all markets mean nothing when the determinant price of capital in the world is not known. And for you to keeping muddling along like its 1928 , expecting that nothing will change is what is really sad.

    3. M;

      You are a perfect example of what one could call a contradiction in terms. You hate, despise and loathe what I write and yet you make a fool out of yourself coming over here to read it and lurk in the background.

      Show some integrity and moral character. stop reading here and visit only those sites which confirm your bizarre view of the world.

      For now, I am done with you.

      Goodbye and good riddance.

    4. Dan,
      I don't understand why you are ignoring the simple fact, that charts in rigged markets cannot be used to explain fundamentals.

      And what is also very strange: why do you even try?

      No need for a technical trade to know WHY.
      But you keep spreading your BS propaganda that everything was normal and fine.
      It isn't.

      Better stick with your charts but stay away from conclusions of WHY.

  3. M, Agree with. These markets are a manipulated joke and I don't understand how Trader Dan doesn't see this. And while gold may be down now in dollar terms, that certainly isn't the case for other currencies. Not that I feel any wealthier with a stronger dollar anyway.

  4. We are in the midst of the Greatest Consumer Boom ever recovered.

    Never before in history has the consumer been so fortunate with the price of everything going in their favor.

    This will go down as the Guilded Age

    1. How is it a good point? We have quite a few issues in our economy right now, including the lowest labor participation rate since 1978.

  5. Thanks, but I'm not a member of any cult. I'm actually a follower of Christ like yourself. I also don't trade gold; I buy the real thing and hold it.

    So with all the corruption going on right now, I don't think it's odd to question things like gold and silver going down more than 60 Sundays in a row or large number of market sell orders being placed at odd times.

    Proverbs 27:12 A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself; but the simple pass on, and are punished.

    1. Free Market;

      You may be a follower of Christ. That does not inoculate you from "cult like" thinking.

      Tell me - have the feds been manipulating the price of grains lower?Did the feds control the weather which is resulting in predictions for record breaking crops this year?

      have they been knocking copper down or has that been because global growth is not expanding rapidly enough to absorb available copper supply? How about crude and gasoline and heating oil? Are they driving the price lower or is it because world demand is not keeping up with current supply? Why do you think that just this morning the market got news that Saudi Arabia is cutting production?

      Did the feds rig the currency markets so that the ECB had to cut interest rates to near zero and institute negative interest rates for banks over in the Euro Zone?

      At some point you need to wake up and look at what is right in front of the your eyes and stop with the constant "al the markets are manipulated" nonsense. That IS CULT LIKE.

      The definition of a cult is a group of people who can no longer be objective no matter how often their belief system is shown to be incorrect.

      That is all I am going to say to you on this subject. If you and M find my comments so off-based and so out of touch with your views, what the hell are you still doing here lurking around reading them? go somewhere else and be consistent. I am weary of dealing with you gold perma bulls.

      Gold will have its day at some point. When it does, it will. It will not happen any sooner or any later than it should. Your argument with the market is one of futility. It frankly does not care what you and M think it should be doing, nor for that matter does it care what I think it should be doing.

      Learn that and be successful. Fail to learn it and you set yourself up for abysmal returns on precious capital invested.

    2. Nobody wants to be the conspiracy theorist though. And I don't even consider it a conspiracy theory.

      The classical gold standard fixed the price of gold within a range.

      The gold exchange standard fixed the price of gold within a range.

      The London gold pool fixed the price of gold within a range.

      The LBMA is fixing gold within a range.

      I'm not sure what people like Dan are finding so hard to understand here.... But hey... the bears are in charge man ! No Dan, the LBMA is sticking to its mandate. And you can front run that all you want in the digital markets. Just don't be so intellectually dishonest with yourself as to think that this is real price discovery.

    3. M;

      I told you once... goodbye...

      Please go away. We are serious traders/investors here.

    4. Dan, you have to remember that most pm perma bulls are deep down inside looking to lose, and worst of all, they have not read history, which is evident in their simplistic views on how things should be, according to Garp. lol

    5. As an FYI, I do invest in quite a few other things. This includes starting a small farm on the side with my wife I just happen to think that the markets are manipulated. You don't have to be part of a cult to believe that.

  6. PM Bulls; Just a simple question for you. Why do you never talk about beans that went to$16 in "08, along with crude to $147 the same year? How about cotton to $2.20 in '11, along with your miserable silver to $49 and gold to $1915? You can not have it both ways boys. You think maybe the fact that commodity trading desks have been shuttered at the big banks over the last few years may have had something to do with prior price moves and now that they have left the building that the miserable fundamentals are now coming to the forefront in most markets? Huh, you think??

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    3. The oil price spike is discussed quite a bit, actually.

  7. Dan,

    I don't trade gold (tried with GLD/GTU a while back, not successfully). But I am a holder in my overall portfolio of a decent amount of physical.

    I was an avid reader of KWN and it took a while before realizing they and others generally have a one sided view and cannot see things for what they are. In reading all sides, I have come to the conclusion that yours is the most logical, hell, the dollar is going up, why shouldn't gold go down? Correct.

    Sure, there are plenty of geopolitical events going on and any one could pop gold. Not that any of those would be something I would look forward to.

    But I want to make sure I understand, you write about gold as a trader. I hold as part of my portfolio to hedge other asset types, for insurance, and for security. Do you agree that holding gold for those reasons is a prudent move, and if one wants to add to positions, regardless of technicals, that buying no is at least better than buying 2 months ago, i.e. buy low sell high?



    1. Cortopassi;

      thanks for the nice words. They are appreciated.

      I absolutely agree with you. I, among many others who regularly post here, hold physical gold for the reasons you cite. I think it is prudent for all investors to own the metal as part of their portfolio. It is indeed insurance against financial, currency or geopolitical turmoil. However, I look at it just like that - INSURANCE. I hope I never have to use it but if I did, I will be relieved that I own some.

      As far as acquiring some physical, one wants to buy it when the price is down and not chase it on the way up. You can nibble on it as it comes down in price. At the same time, one must understand that they are buying a "dead asset" in the sense that it is not going to throw off any yield, any return or any dividend, unless things get worse. As long as they understand that and are diversified into other investments, they should do just fine.

      my beef is with those whose lives seem to revolve around a block of yellow metal to the point that every time it moves lower, it is the result of nefarious forces seeking to suppress the price of their beloved deity. that is beyond pathetic' it is downright warped.

      It is the same thing as wishing for one's house to burn down so that they can collect on the insurance!

    2. You are just trying to be all objectively warm and fuzzy. I have the balls to take the hit and admit that I see something for what it is. I am not trying to win a popularity contest or believe a lie just because it has been told enough times.

      " the gold manipulation is so blatant by the way, that if I was the manipulator, I would be embarrassed. To me, that's not debatable"-Jim Rickards


    3. M;

      Glad you have some balls to go with your dwindling investment account.

      Oh and by the way, since Jim Rickards says it is so, it therefore must be so. Boy howdy, I will have to now change my views on this topic seeing that such a person has said thus and thus.

      Let me ask you a final question before I finish having my guy delete any further nonsense from you - are you so insecure that you feel the need to consistently make a point at a website where the majority could care less about your view of the markets?

      We are doing our best to remain objective over here and hopefully profit as a result. If you wish to die on the mountain that you have chosen to take your stand, so be it; that is your prerogative. remain poor - it is your right.

    4. I havnt been to this blog for 2 years. I've been sitting this out. But I came here to maybe get some analysis on where the bottom could be as far as the posted price of gold is concerned and all I got was some Krugman esque ridicule for being crazy enough to be long gold. This type of analysis is garanteed to miss the bottom or even the end of the bottom. If you don't even want to discuss , especially with someone who disagrees with you then why even take comments ?

      Gold bulls hate gold. Gold bears hate gold. Gold bulls are turning into bears. We have to be close.

  8. breaking news! do not shoot the messenger... silver is going to launch Sept 22... gold to $3000 by year end! i may be able to retire someday after all. (i haven't needed to sell my silver tea set or gold fillings yet) oh please do not be another shameless shill Harvey. i cannot take another "once in a lifetime", "sure thing" blowing up in my face. not financially, nor emotionally.


  9. - IWM green.

    - PM's still getting crushed.

    - Oil at multi-month lows.

    - Grains still crashing

    - Interest rates still dirt cheap.

    - Credit still flowing with ease

    - 401(k) accounts still soaring thanks to surging stocks and good bond performance

    Everything, I mean everything is in favor of the consumer right now.

    1. Until it is not.

      The world needs to encourage the consumer now and get everyone into debt. In the UK we have loans from 1.49% long term to 4% short term and the banks are pushing them like candy. The problem with sugar though is that is produces a rush that is not sustainable.

    2. Where would you put $100,000 right now ?

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    4. I would put 25% into nugt and 25% into silver/swiss based gold etf and then wait and see. Already did the invensis and yahoo play to great effect over the last month, so now I would leave the rest in cash and wait. I would buy more nugt if it fell as when it hits 27 we will see a big bounce once again. I had bought the dollar as per my comment on here a month ago and made a good return.

    5. Im buying gold, gold stocks and the Euro. And keeping a fair amount of cash in CAD.

      I will keep investing in gold stocks on days like this. If gold continues to fall and this time is really different then whatever. I'll go down with the ship. I can accept that. Bring it.

      Nobody ever got rich by taking minimal risk. I bought BP when it went below its 2008 low in 2010. I'm buying gold stocks now because they are below the 2008 lows.

      Like everyone else I don't really expect them to go up. But the pain of missing out on this "blood in the streets" moment will hurt more then anything else. For me anyway...

  10. Mark, Oil going down in price definitely helps in many ways, but I don't think the average consumer is benefiting due to being unemployed/underemployed. We can also talk up housing being cheap all we want, but who is buying them?

    1. Also, American small business ownership is also at an all time low.

  11. There is one common theme going on in all pm perma bull sites. They are kicking the can down the road.

    Have anyone notice the down trend in content in these sites?

    They cant come up with new BS. This is getting interesting.

    1. Gold went up for 12 years. And it only actually went down for one so far.

      What is it that makes you so bearish when it is so trendy to be ?

    2. M, you need to wake up; Gold is now beginning its 4th year into a bear market

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    4. Gold only went down one year so far. Look at the charts

  12. Bah maybe M is posting here because deep inside, he is trying to be convinced :)
    I'm too tired right now, just back to Yerevan through the night, it's 02:00 am here, so... something tells me that Lan will answer him first, lol :)
    But let's start with a few sentences, M.
    We are dealing with trading here. Many of us have physical gold, but that's not the point of this blog. The point of this blog is what do you do in terms of paper trading, related to gold. And the point is to be short when it goes down, and long when it goes up. According to me, this is the most profitable way to make money.
    You can choose to be long only, choose to accumulate only, well...you won't make as much profit as we make, if you make one at all. Bottom picking is a fool's errand. It's not about bottom picking. Never has been. It's about being positioned according to the trend. Right now, the middle term trend is Down. Period. You can deny, then deny it with a chart. And you'd better hope that your only and last very long term bullish support now at 1240 holds. But if it doesn't, you'll probably see it as a "great opportunity" to accumulate even more at 1200...1100...1000? How deep are your pockets?
    Good luck,

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  13. "Nobody ever got rich by taking minimal risk."

    M, I'm sorry, this is probably the "stupidest" thing I ever read on this forum.
    This sentence of yours summarizes it all. You understand nothing about how real traders make real money. To be short : your statement is DEAD WRONG. It's exactly the opposite which is happening. You can't do it, because you don't know how to. Learn.

  14. what a very odd discussion this has turned out to be. Let me try to summarize (and please correct me if I am wrong or biased)

    - Some people believe that the price of Gold (in particular) is manipulated; others maintain that the observed market behaviour is not unique to Gold, that a number of technical and commercial factors do not currently favour Gold, and that the concerns about manipulation only occur on occasions when the price falls

    - There is some concern that several prominent promoters of Gold and precious metals may have either questionable credentials and an imperfect tracl record, or may be in the business of actively promoting investment

    - There is widespread ignorance and wilful misrepresentation of certain publically-available facts (such as whether ABN "defaulted", what Elke Koenig at the German regulator BaFin actually said, and how COMEX Futures are traded, reported and settled.

    - Several contributors are concerned at the "guru" status accorded to certain commentators and the repetitive and self-referential nature of the themes they espouse, to the extent that debate has become polarized and adopted "beluef based" characteristics which no longer reference factual inputs;there is concern that this may lead to financial and interpersonal temsions

    - Overall, there is uncertainty about the role of Gold in a balanced portfoluo, and what an appropriate investment, trading or disaster horizon might

    - Those contributors who style themselves as Traders (rather than. Investors or Preppers) advocate trading the market as you find it, to the extent of expressing impatience with those who "cannot take the heat". These commentators note that Gold is a barren asset, and that non-manipulative factors such as Inflation, Supply & Demand and Geopolitics may be the key drivers behind price dynamics (rather than manipulation)

    - Overall, for better or for worse, the market is what it us (though some might nonetheless wish to selectively dispute this), and there is general consensus that Gold is just one of many investable asset classes, which does not of itself warrant an emotional attachment

    Please correct me if I have got this wrong or omitted anything

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  15. My purpose in writing the above was to point out that you don't need to be "intellectually dishonest" ~ and much less do you need to accuse others of being so ~ in order to identify the points of contention. I myself happen to believe that over the short ~ medium term Gold will decline further in price. At the same time I continue to hold a large slab of it. Anyone who wishes to write me off as a "Gold Hater" is clearly telling us far more about their own mindset than about either my perspective or indeed any objective assessment of Gold as a tradeable or investable asset

    1. Lan and Hubert; I am afraid there is a large contingent out there that will never get it. As an aside,l just listened to Obama and took nothing away from it, so we shall see.

  16. Funny how the "blue hairs" continue to "keep stacking" and refuse to even wade their toe into blue chip stocks.

    That is precisely the reason why this bear market probably has many more months to go, because these GATA and CIGA hangers on need to puke up their positions for good before a lasting bottom is put in place.

    By the way, anyone up to going to the next Q & A session to throw a few shoes at General Jim?

    I guess we shouldn't pick on him, he's experiencing much pain as it is with TRX printing at $2.04 today, LOL......

    Yeah, he sold out years ago, but he still has to answer to angry shareholders and employees.

    "But Jim, You Promised!!!"

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    2. Look at the two year chart of the S&P.

      1300 to 2000 in two years.

      Its so sad and hilarious at the same time. Its like the manipulators painted the s&p just to piss of gold bugs.

    3. When im feeling down, I always pull a two year chart of the S&P. Then, I scratch S&P and write Gold.

    4. I meant 3 year chart. Drool.

      -Confessions of a gold bug

    5. Loren, the S&P is only up 8% this year, better than savings but nothing to rave about. Lots of individual stocks, I'm sure have done much better but that also means that a lot have done worse. The place to be was in the junior oils from Jan to mid June. Also, the GDXJ has had two great runs this year in spite of golds troubles.

  17. KWN is now officially the "TMZ.com" of the Gloom and Doom world.

    The predictions and stories are simply outlandish and are not believeable, however people still read just to be entertained.

    Maybe Eric King will have the last laugh if he can monetize it.

    However, he could have made "vast fortunes" by predicting the exact opposite in the gold market, warning of constant crashes and implosions in the PM sector, and interviewing CEO's of major consumer companies instead. He would be a rock star by now, probably picked up by MarketWatch as an "expert commentator", LOL...

    For example:

    "Take downs in Facebook, Tesla, Under Armor, Nike to end badly for bulls"

    "There is a huge problem in gold mining and a major shock is coming"

    "U.S. Treasury should be buying blue chip stocks in open market"

    "Legend warns that natural resource sector headed for financial chaos and destruction"

    "Gold market earthquakes and horrifying catastrophe"

    "A cataclysmic unwind and global meltdown is coming in the energy markets"

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  18. "But I came here to maybe get some analysis on where the bottom could be as far as the posted price of gold is concerned."

    Noone knows this, as trading is not about cristal ball forecasting, but monitoring prices and their possible bottoming areas. Still, take a quarterly time unit, and the Inf Bollinger Band will answer imo your question : it roughly gives you a possible target for gold IF it breaks 1240 then IF it breaks 1180.

    As for the rest, you should come here with more humility, instead of this arrogance.
    "Grouping fundamentals with charts is pretty ignorant."
    "Your comments are mostly garbage regarding gold".

    You came to insult people who know more than you do, then you start playing the victim. You are simply a Troll, and I'm done with you.

  19. 1) gold lost 1/3 of its value since 1900 $. As any usual people can still buy the physical stuff today, not hedging a long position or "keep stacking" on the down side has been dead wrong.

    2) this is indeed a cult mentality because instead of being able of self criticizm at some point, those guys are so proud, or scared, or both, that they prefer to listen to any story that will allow them to say : my decision was right. There is no shame in making a wrong decision. The shame is in sticking with it all your life.

    3) Doomers may eventually be right sometime in the future. But they for sure cannot predict the timing (or you still believe in Bo Polny???). Imo gold IS the ultimate currency, i.e it exists once confidence in all other currencies collapsed (i.e the dollar as well) or geopolitical situation is so tense that governments use it as a means of exchange (see Iran). We are not there yet and we won't be in one day.

    4) gold bugs think that one night, the LBMA will be bankrupt, that one night, all the physical gold will suddenly be gone. It's one of their strongest dream to justify the "keep stacking because one night, it will be too late, gold will trade at 50.000 $ and all the gold will be gone.". Maybe someone wants to enter the details about why it is very very very unlikely. Still, the solution is to have physical gold but short the paper side of the market as a hedge.

    5) I think that Sinclair's advice on his site took into account the following element : most people are not sophisticated traders. We live in Idiocracy already. So how do you help people who don't even comprehend what short means if a "catastrophy" is coming? The message must remain very clear if you want it to be understood by the masses. So the message was : "if you don't have any, then buy some gold, unleveraged, physical, as an insurance, no matter what its price is now, and forget about it. Don't resell it at lower prices. Be prepared for a seloff because only God knows what will happen. If you can't stand the heat in the kitchen, then don't buy any.". I'm sorry, this is the message of jsmineset, there was no other and you'll find no other, and I agree with Jim on that one. If you are not sophisticated enough to understand short, if you don't have enough money and self discipline to trade options or future contracts (a sure catastrophy for most people), then just follow the advice.

  20. The religious overtones of "cult" behaviour are entirely accurate - such people are far less concerned about being forgiven or rewarded than they are in extracting rightful vengeance on people who they perceive to be "Evil". This is not about making money, but about something FAR more important - "being right"

    Maybe there is no God to rain down righteous anger upon the wicked moneychangers; or maybe there is, but he/she has more important things to be getting in with, like fixing War and Pestilence and Famine, rather than regulating COMEX deliveries. But either way, far better to vent that impotent rage by "doing a Samson" and dreaming of an apocalyptic ending that will quite literally "bring the house down". That'll teach 'em, and although I will probably die in the ruins too, at least everyone will know I was right all along

    It is a counsel of despair, and such people are clutching at straws; not bad or mad, just sad. And this explains why Dan in particular is singled out for special attention - not just a simple non-believer he, but a full-on schismatic heretic. Lets have a bonfire.....

  21. Markets always manipulated. Why complain ?


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