"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Friday, September 19, 2014

Speculators Remain Net Long as Gold Drops Lower

I picked the headline because I wanted to add the following: "And are losing money".

I am attaching two charts to this short post. The first is the overall COT positions from today's report.


Take a look at the lines reflecting the positions of the various groups of speculators. Note that all three groups, the Hedge Funds, the Other Large Reportables and the Small Specs or general public, all remain NET LONG in gold. And guess what - they are all losing money.

Also, what concerns me is that based on this Friday's report, there are still more than a considerable amount of these losing positions left to unwind. As of the close of trading business on Tuesday ( the day through which the weekly report covers ) the price of gold was $1236.70. As of the close today, it was $1216.60 or another $20 lower. There is no doubt that the breach of downside chart support levels has taken out more of these spec longs, but the question is how much pain can they endure, especially when margin calls begin mounting?

The next one is a close up of only the Hedge Fund positioning in relation to the gold price.

What stands out to me is the fact that most of the hedge fund longs are now underwater in a bad way. This is the category in particular that can really move markets due to their sheer size and the amount of firepower at this disposal. They are running, of that there is no question. What IS the question is what is their threshold for tolerance of pain.

Some will hold on until or unless $1180 is broken. Some will exit if psychological support near $1200 collapses and gold then changes handles once more from "12" to "11".

Also, I am not taking into consideration that many hedge funds are now moving more to the short side of the market.

Look at how quickly they moved over to the short side of silver and look at what they have inflicted on that metal. They broke it down below $18.60, then $18.00 in no time flat.

Switching gears just a bit... here is the US Dollar index chart. King Dollar is definitely back once again! The greenback put in the BEST WEEKLY CLOSE in more than 4 years, 51 months to be exact!


In looking over the chart, I do not see much in the way of overhead resistance until near the 86.50 region. If the Dollar does not receive some sort of negative news from some quarter, further strength bodes ill for the precious metals.

On a closing note for now, today's Cattle on Feed report was a tad on the negative side with placements coming in a bit higher than the market was looking for. It should be pointed out however that the placements number in and of itself, is the smallest number since 1996. So even though the number was larger than what the market was expecting, we are still not exactly being swamped by an excess of feeders.

Cash trade did break loose this afternoon at $1.59, which was down from last week. That is still higher than October cattle are trading which remain at a discount to the cash markets; however, the lower cash and slightly less friendly COF report might bring a bit of selling into the market early Monday morning. We shall see as trading those reports can be notoriously vexing at times.

One last thing - the weather forecasts out through the end of the upcoming week, show nice, warm, dry weather - excellent for harvest in those areas where the combines are rolling and for finishing the crop up in the more northern latitudes.

New crop corn and beans are already flowing into the pipelines and that is being reflected in the basis in those areas where harvest is ongoing.

223 comments:

  1. Thanks for the great analysis Dan. Have a great weekend!

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    1. Gilliom;

      You are most welcome. thanks for taking the time to jot down some kind words. I am trying to finish up some work here so that I can enjoy that weekend indeed! Sunday evening rolls around way too soon for me!

      Delete
    2. I think Trader Dan needs to take the "CIGA Pledge" from Jim Sinclair where he says:

      " Gold has always been a war between sound finance and debt ridden currencies. When you entered the fray you joined a band of brothers and sisters as fox hole buddies, in this war for both gold’s and our freedom.
      Comrades in Golden Arms, if there is to be a battle royal it is here and now. You are armed with the knowledge of how to frustrate this manipulation for theft. Fear not because $3500 is the next stop once we frustrate these beasts of paper.
      Stand firm with me, and do as I do now.
      Will you take this pledge with me?
      I swear those that have caused the wreckage of all things once held dear to us shall not have my gold or gold share position. Fear is no part of me, and I will face the enemy, confident in our success."

      What was it Trader Dan said about golbugs being in a cult? ... LOL Amazing!

      Delete
  2. Good lucid writing as usual Dan. Let's hope hedgies stay long the gold and corn a bit longer. Have a great wknd barbecuing and so forth.l

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  3. Thanks Dan.
    Watching the USD scream higher today while silver and gold were sold off all the way until the markets close today is not a good sign for the metals.

    Your explanation above on the current COT and how just about everyone appears to be stuck in the same long boat sounds ominous going forward for the metals.

    The USD above 85 probably means $1200 gold or thereabouts. The USD at 86 would probably mean $1150 or so depending if the SP500 or Dow also keeps creeping upwards as it has been.
    If billions of new euro start seeking a piece of the hot US equity markets action the effect on gold could be downright chilling.

    As always, Sunday night and Monday mornings open should be interesting. $1200 and 17.50 seem like a given at this point.

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    1. A link about the EU pickle they find themselves in...

      http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0H80B020140914?irpc=932

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  4. Most were expecting a bounce in the metals this week but it just didn't happen, classic example of how following the charts can save your neck when deciding to go long or short - it did mine anyway.

    Whats interesting is the last time gold was 1180 DUST was $50, now gold is only $40ish away from 1180 while DUST is only $25.

    Does this mean if gold approaches and possibly breaks 1180 the miners will accelerate down fast or does gold have to hit $950 for DUST to get back up to $50??

    Thoughts? Anyone have experience from the 70's as to what happened with gold vs the miners when gold was making it's final leg down to $100?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I don't have any experience of or special knowledge about Miners, but my gut instinct tells me that if you are looking for a sure-fire trading strategy, just read this and do the exact opposite of what he recommends:

      http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-cheap-gold-stocks-upleg-intact.aspx?article=5832820914H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Adam+Hamilton&mk=1

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  5. PM stocks will end up like Molycorp, trading around a dollar

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  6. Dan,

    Seeing people you love being financialy destroyed by a piece of metal is heartbreaking. There is something eerie about holding physical. I know someone very dear to me who has lost a lot of money. If this person had his pm position on paper instead of physical, i am 100% sure he would have sold some time ago. He is hypnotized. He has been fed so much propaganda against paper money and bankers he just lost his marbles.

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    1. and the saddest part is that the fraudsters and charlatans will say things like "don't worry - don't think in dollars, think in ounces".... anytime you hear someone say that, you should run far and fast.

      i still have the same baseball cards I had 25 years ago... they just happen to be worthless now.

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    3. Loren;

      I know full well what you mean. I have enough emails from folks telling me the same.

      The problem is that there is enough truth in what the gold pumpers say that it sounds reasonable.

      Like I have said before, most nearly everyone believed that when the Fed unleashed its experiment in QE, it would undercut the Dollar and send the price of various assets higher. It did.

      Inflation fears were everywhere. So that part looked accurate and the markets reflected that. What happened however was the long-expected breakdown in the Dollar began to reverse and it began to dawn on people that the liquidity unleashed by the Fed was not making it into the broader economy. Stocks were moving higher as investors searched for yield but global growth did not respond as some expected and thus commodity prices fell. Also several years of extremely high prices for commodities had the predictable result of causing a huge ramp in supply. This supply surge hit at the exact time speculators began revising their views on inflation and QE impact.

      Traders who could read the tape noted this and positioned according to the new sentiment. The gold shills however were unable to change their views because they are too emotionally wedded to their metal god to believe it could be toppled like some sort of Dagon.

      Those who continued to listen to their siren songs and wild claims and new weekly theories as to why gold was going to launch any day simply could not see past the obscuring fog that they raised and missed the charts.

      Now, they are paying dearly for listening to men who have a vested interest in gold whether by selling it, newsletter subscriptions, fee paid websites or whatever. Those people CANNOT BE OBJECTIVE. How I wish I could make some of their victims understand this.

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    5. You either believe there is some black magic in central bank balance sheet expansion or you don't.

      History , basic arithmetic and common sense tells you that there is no such black magic

      Delete
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  8. I don't think there is one group that I can think of that were so easily bamboozled by the gold pushers.

    Even the guys who followed Cramer in 2000 learned quickly and abandoned him when he was touting all these "new era" tech stocks.

    However it has been a shocking 3 1/2 years and the gold bulls are more resolute than ever.

    Dan is right.

    We need a major flush to get all these guys to sell and get the hedge funds to liquidate en masse.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Mark, I think the problem is that some people wake up to reality - that they're taking the advice of utter fraudsters and charlatans... but these enlightened folks are quickly replaced by a new series of suckers. that's how the Goldbug Misinformation Machine works.

      you can see some of the enlightened ones in the comment threads of this very blog... but alas, there are thousands more discovering Harvey Organ et all every day, thinking they've stumbled onto the secret truth and beginning their misedcuation.

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    2. Gold only does anything meaningful when the 33 year long treasury bull market ends. But maybe it will never end

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    3. I agree Mark. Bear markets usually end with the bulls throwing in the towel and with the media pumping ultra bearish news in order to scare the final holders into coughing up their last shares and selling at the bottom similar to jc Penny and blackberry. The media was blowing up how the stocks were getting destroyed and those who bought have already doubled their money. I think gold will have a moment like that and that will be the time to buy.

      Delete
  9. Since the timing wasn’t quite right on $1180…not the right year I suppose, I thought Martin made himself quite ( or perhaps somewhat) clear that the yellow metal would bottom somewhere around $950 or possible as low as $870 or so in 2015 . His site even stated that the earliest time frame for a bottom would be in Jan/ Feb 2015.

    AND SO…What does Mr. Spellcheck mean when he says, “The gold report has the forecast for the turn. I will NOT state it on this blog as a matter of principle.” ???

    I guess I got “sucked” into his blog after the Birthday General mentioned Martin was his nemesis.

    Martin’s 2032 / 2033 date forecast has my attention because of it being 2 days after Christ’s death…… if it is really now 2014…I wonder because of the Gregorian calendar we are using.

    I apologize for throwing this date issue in here, but along with Martin’s attempt to understand the past, it is a reason that draws me into his blog.

    Please excuse, I missed posting on the newest thread.

    Shem Blue

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  10. here is an intriguin piece of selective vision and cognitive dissonance: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.nl/2014/09/long-term-gold-chart-with-retracements.html

    In this apparently well-reasoned piece we learn that there is "strong support at 1180, and the longer term trend line that works on a logarithmic chart".

    Here's the chart, with the line helpfully drawn on it: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BPuMpvQL6HI/VBzZOWcOHTI/AAAAAAAA5tM/RFkabO87YSM/s1600/goldchartlen.png

    now, just look at the baseline from which that line is drawn: the last time the market touched it was in April 2006

    I don't have the raw price data to hand - and certainly not log adjusted - but I bet if you ran a regression through those points the line would be far steeper, and I wouldn't be surprised if the market at least touched it at$681 in mid-2009 or at 1180 at the end of 2013

    So, let's try to visualise a differnt line - a steeper one connecting the start of the uptrend at around $252 in 2002 and supporting that $681 low tick in 2009: I can't show you this as I don't have any way of uploading the amended chart, but you will find that line was breached at around in August 2013 at more or less exactly the 38.2% retracement marked on Jesse's chart, around $1301. (In passing, it is perhaps worth noting that the line currently stands at $1650, where it interescts with the falling red line exactly on the right-hand Y axis of Jesse's chart )

    So let's pause and reflect on this: Jesse appears to be onto something, and may have spotted an important trend signal. However

    a. He is a year late in doing so

    b. He has interpreted it as signifying a price tendency which is diametrically opposite to what the indicator is clearly showing us

    astonishing. It's right there in front of his eyes, and he sees precisely the opposite

    So, where from here? Well, if you follow that 'Magic Chart', surely the next support is at the (?) 45% retracement (what?!) around $1100 and below that the supposed 61.8% retrancement at $802. Frankly, I wouldn't entirely ignore that $681 print either - also confusingly marked as another mysterious 45% retracement.

    Maybe that's it - maybe that's the key to this market - 45% all the way; but to interpret that chart as Jesse does as giving any semblance of support is not just fanciful, its patently absurd

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  11. Here are some fun thoughts for the weekend

    1. http://rt.com/usa/189148-quarter-americans-want-state-secession/

    2. Now that the Scots have decided they would like to stay part of the UK, I think the rest of the UK should be allowed a vote on whether to allow them to stay; I reckon it would be an equally close-run thing, with the ideal solution being to widen the Caledonian canal, tow the recalictrant top half off Scotland off into the North Sea, and sink it with naval gunfire

    3. There is much talk about Germany and now Switzerland wanting their Gold back, but not being able to get it. I have an alternative solution, which I am going to run past Lan's Chinese friends and some Russian guys I know at Standard Chartered Bank. Instead of asking for your own Gold back, why not just invade and steal somebody elses? It worked for NATO in Libya and Ukraine, so why not just smash&grab Japan's hoarde or lift the lid on how much Turkey or Poland have snaffled away?

    Have fun, and remember to Keep Stackin' "at these bargain prices"

    ReplyDelete
  12. What the constant gold bashers here constantly miss is that this is about a choice longer term between deflation and the dollar/inflation.

    Its either let deflation win, which Dan's recent charts clearly show is starting to win again or keep burning the dollar by printing money by doing QE.

    This is what guys like Sinclair and Schiff are saying.
    They are betting the Fed chooses to burn the dollar rather than have deflation win.
    Who knows if they will be right. Perhaps the Fed lets a real correction happen by letting everything deflate.

    So yes if you are a short term trader in gold and bought at $1800 then you are losing but who cares if the end game is to keep burning the dollar by printing money right?

    Paper will lose in the end if printing/QE is the longer term choice right?

    If deflation is the Fed's choice then Dow 5000 or lower is in the cards and gold at $250, oil at $30, housing implodes etc. Everyone loses.

    Give your head a shake guys and think longer term as Dan's charts show deflation is now happening again.

    Is the Fed's choice deflation or inflation longer term is the real question?

    Also looking at a gold chart from the 70s gold rose and then lost half its value before going to over $800, perhaps similar to what is happening now?

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    1. Barney,

      That makes sense in my world half of $1920…an echo repeat of the 70’s…yet I wonder if we could ever go that low. . I wouldn’t want to bet the farm on that possibility either…and I’m glad I kept the farm instead of trading it for the shiny stuff when the General said we were heading much higher.

      Prices in stores are a lot higher now but I guess that kind of inflation doesn’t matter. Structural inflation is missing…I think we still have a lack of jobs.

      And so, I am here reading Dan’s comments and charts very closely because besides a few like Bill Tatro & perhaps a little bit of Armstrong and a few others, Dan is the only site that makes sense…in my opinion.

      Shem Blue

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    2. Yes the wage inflation is not there like the 70s Shem Blue, so not exactly like the 70s

      More trying to make the point that longer term this would look to be about either allowing deflation to win or keep on trying to inflate.

      Delete
    3. barney - the problem with your thesis (And with Schiff's) is an understanding of the monetary system. There's a reason that QE hasn't caused the hyperinflation he and many others predicted - it's because he doesn't understand how it works. I suggest taking a deep dive in to understanding this - start with Pragmatic Capitalism.

      aside, you referenced gold bashers - i think most of the people here are not gold bashers, but goldbug bashers. There's a huge difference. The goldbug bashers on this blog (And I) bash the plethora of fraudsters who repeat nonsense, falsehoods and misinformation daily in an effort to sell gold or subscriptions.

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    5. "The goldbug bashers on this blog (And I) bash the plethora of fraudsters who repeat nonsense, falsehoods and misinformation daily in an effort to sell gold or subscriptions"

      Or gold shares. Speaking of which, I hear Sinclair mailed people offering an 8% discount to market for anyone who is willing to take a 5-10 million dollar worth private placement. I understand Jim since lowered the bar and now also takes 2-5 million dollar offers.

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    6. I completely 100000% agree with Kid dynamite! You also have to understand the fundamentals of gold. Almost every single primary reason folks had to buy gold between 1999 and 2011 are now out the window. Whether it is the added liquidity of ETFs, emerging markets or the irrational fears of hyper-inflation -- all of those items are now working against the faltering commodities super cycle. The 600% increase in gold over a mere 11 years was absurd, and now it is going back to where it came from.

      Delete
    7. Sinclair will also ask you to take the CIGA pledge. basically, you are joining a CULT!

      Delete
  13. I've just thought it interesting that Russia was the 5th largest producer of silver in 2013. So is it too hard to imagine that in a world of sanctions to hurt a country economically that the silver price is part of that?

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  15. barney,

    I think it's a natural phenomenon to stick to one's hopes when one has been beaten.
    Hope that in the end, you'll be proven right.
    Hope that in the end, it will be ok and gold will trade above 2000 $.
    It is normal to stick to that hope when you thought that gold would gain 20% per year as long as central banks as a whole keep printing more money.
    But you must make the distinction between hope and reality.
    This is very important.
    It is a bad reflex to stick to hope when investing / trading.
    It can cost it all.
    It can make you persist in your mistakes.
    It can make you deaf to the real arguments. Just look at M.

    I hope for all gold bulls that someday, they will recover most of their losses.
    Meanwhile, it is very important to ask yourself : how would I endure an even short term collapse of gold's prices towards 1000 $? Or 900 $? Am I ready to stand the heat to the end, and accept my losses during an extended period of time? Be honest to yourself.
    Only you have the answer that.
    If you think that you may get desperate and throw in the towel at lower levels, my suggestion is that you sell a bit of your gold now, or hedge it, or whatever way which will make you feel more comfortable with what you have remaining. Ideally, you should have the quantity of gold which makes you not care about a collapse. You should possess the gold you can afford to lose in purchasing power terms within the next few years.
    How much is it is an individual answer.
    But accumulating during "the dips" in hope to be even money faster and average down the buying price of your gold position is a terrible blunder that many new traders make. It will wipe you out, I assure you.
    Resist the temptation, and resist the voice in your head telling you everything will be fine soon : it's your hope talking to you, not your rational brains.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. P.S : look at this chart.
      Since peak gold in 2011, assets of those central banks increased by 50% while gold prices lost 33%.
      Money printing and gold price are not always, not necessarily correlated.
      Call it manipulation if you like.
      Then ask yourself : do I know how long this can last?
      If you are not too arrogant, the answer is : NO.
      And your immediate reflex should be to be CAREFUL and protect yourself, not to go crazy ALL IN by betting your house as well at those "bargain prices".

      Remember this silver guy who was running "don't thread on me" and was boasting he was buying tons of silver at 40$ + "in the dips"!!??
      Do you want to go broke like him?
      Save your nerves and enjoy the weekend.

      Delete
    2. http://fr.tinypic.com/view.php?pic=wi5301&s=8#.VB1bxRK-w2w

      Delete
  16. Go visit:
    http://www.newsunit.net

    I have an entire collection of gold and silver gurus there. Especially listen to David Morgan. I only lasted about 2 minutes of him and had to shut him off. That was way too much.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Well....isn't this interesting?

    "BO POLNY” the scamster is exposed . He is “Dr Bohdan Stephan Polny” a chiropractor , he has been in court Vs the IRS recently , his chiropractic clinic is the same address as his 2020forecast http://thedeponent.com/Medical/Chiropractic-Providers/Chiropractor/CA/Newport-Beach/Bohdan-Polny-1275700460/ .

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Nice find, DPH.
      Just another guy, running a little scam on the side by preying on the desparate.

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    3. unreal. a pharmacist, a yogurt vendor, and now a chiropractor. good catch DPH. and thank you all, and especially you Dan for exposing these fraudster pigs.

      here is proof of what DPH found. go to the bottom of the page on the 2nd link.

      http://thedeponent.com/Medical/Chiropractic-Providers/Chiropractor/CA/Newport-Beach/Bohdan-Polny-1275700460/

      http://www.gold2020forecast.com/

      also good stuff News UNIT.
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      Delete
    4. Didn't Polny call the top at 1900 in 2011, atleast that's what JS says.

      If that is fudged then I'm really shaking my head.

      Delete
    5. I'll give credit where credit is due.
      The credit goes to our old friend "pailin" for the find.

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  18. @silverwood,
    Keep in mind that the entire silver industry is so small, it hardly registers in the world economy. In this tiny silver world, Russia is quite a ways from the top, in 5th position. In light of the foregoing, do you honestly believe that a nefarious strategy the U.S. might be using to go after Russia is to try to manipulate the silver price lower?? You're giving them way too much credit--the sociopaths running the world don't even know there IS a silver industry...

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  19. My one concern about the collapse in prices is that the always-long people are now talking about hedging by shorting futures to lock-in "profits."

    Imagine someone who needs to hedge using a futures contract. That means he owns at least 100 oz. If that is the case, he has lost a lot of money if unhedged. Imagine someone with say, 400 oz. He has lost well over 120k since the 1550 breach if he was unhedged..

    I always preferred the eminis for smaller long holders over etfs and options. Say you own 20-40 oz, an emini will work well and for much less premium. Just roll over to the next contract when notified by your broker. I use Think or Sink from Ameritrade. They notify me about expirations via email.

    However, as a contemplating contrarian, this talk by the always-long people and the short-term overbought surging dollar make me wonder if a pop back is inevitable in the short run. Up until the silver takeout yesterday I kept thinking in intraday pop could happen out of nowhere. All we needed to see was a headline indicating Russia was flying jets somewhere and the gold shorts would cover. But that didn't even happen yesterday. Gold barely moved up after some bellicose headlines came out.

    But what happens if the dollar drops 100 pips to 83 or so over the next couple days? Are all those sheep shorting futures now thinking of a one-way trade going to cover?

    With this said, prices will surely continue to fall. With silver's route, gold's demise is guaranteed. The gold/silver ratio continues to climb, and eventually it will crack - meaning gold is still overbought relative to silver. Keep passive hedges intact. However, anyone reading this blog regularly has been doing this for at least the past 300 dollars.

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    1. Alas, the very thought of the knuckledraggers over at TFMR trying to hedge their "stacks" in the futures market is actually scary. Even I can't derive any schadenfreude from THAT particular bit of nastiness...

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    2. I can't tell if the following comment over at "The Land That Time Forgot" is complete sarcasm or just a perma-bullish interpretation of the recent COT that is 180 degree's from Dan's observation.

      "I have to agree. OI is HUGE HIGH. Bankers are SCARED. This war in silver is about to go NUCLEAR. I think I will start cashing some DOW stock or sell some GOLD next week and buy some more silver. OI is JUST WAY TO HIGH TO IGNORE. Silver tanked and OI when up BIG Time. THAT MY FRIENDS IS VERY VERY BULLISH."

      I'm all in on TD's viewpoint how this might get uglier and fast.

      Delete
    3. DarkPurple;

      These people are either great masters of sarcasm or are more dense than a black hole Come to think of it, perhaps that black hole swallowed up their minds because I do not think their minds are capable of employing sarcasm. Therefore, by the process of elimination, they must be serious.

      Here is the quote from what you provided:
      "Silver TANKED and OI went up BIG TIME".

      Question? What day did silver tank?
      Answer: Friday when it collapsed through two levels of support, the first at $18.60 and the next at $18.00, closing down nearly 4% on the day.

      Question: Through what days of the week do the current COT reports cover?

      Answer: Tuesday.

      Question: What day do the exchanges release the open interest figures for each trading day?

      Answer: The following day of trading. In the case of Friday trading, the open interest is not released until Monday.

      Conclusion: The confused author of this idiotic comment just predicted a VERY, VERY BULLISH market using data that did not even reflect the positioning of the market players at the time Silver 'tanked" ( to use his words).

      In other words, he was calling for a BULLISH outcome based on what the players were doing on Tuesday of this past week and by Friday, the silver price had collapsed from its settlement price on Tuesday at $18.72!

      How's that for a big bullish response? the silver market fell over a full $1.00 since Tuesday. Wonderfully accurate prediction!

      Even if one is inclined to be kind, and allow that he was not referring to the COT reports, we have no way of knowing what the open interest did on Friday's trading session because that data will not be out until Monday. That being said, the price on Friday alone dropped nearly 73 cents so what is he going to say if the data that comes out on Monday morning from the exchange shows a DECLINE in the total open interest?

      It is a shame that ignorance is not a crime punishable by incarceration away from computers where the perpetrators have access to keyboards. that would keep society much safer.

      One last thing. This confused and wild-eyed ranter thinks that the BANKERS are scared. That is really even more strange because the Bankers have been slowly reducing their net short exposure to the market as have the swap dealers. Specs are the ones doing the selling right now in the silver market, not the bankers.

      There are really some people that are simply hopeless when it comes to learning anything.

      Delete
    4. That was an awesome comment by Trader Dan. LOL I love to read Trader Dan's rebuttal to hopeless gold bugs ...very entertaining.

      Delete
  20. Its now time to celebrate the fantastic predictions and nearly 100% success rate of the following "acclaimed experts and market veterans".

    Those predictions were spot on. If you did the EXACT OPPOSITE of what they recommended.

    Posted on August 16, 2014, a little more than 30 days ago:

    "This Is the Worst Nightmare for the U.S. and The West" - Correct, a nightmare for those who were short U.S. dollars and U.S. stock indexes

    "This Will Trigger Major Dislocations In World Financial Markets" - Correct, the surge in USDX has created panic liquidations in all commodities and foregien currencies.

    "Gerald Celente - This Global Collapse Is Just Getting Started" Exactly. The collapse in consumer pessimism, represented by new world record highs in hotel, airline, cruise, and consumer discretionary stocks.

    "Fleckenstein - U.S. Stocks To Crash As No Liquidity Fuels Panic". Correct. Increasing U.S. stock trading volume is "crashing" the NYSE computers, as BABA volume on Friday exceeded SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM, and GLD combined.

    "Short Squeeze Of Epic Proportions To Shock Market Participants" Correct. Look at the U.S. Dollar

    "A Horrifying & Destructive Future For The Entire World" Correct. The world of coal, copper, and precious metals mining.

    "Chart Of The Week & Vladimir Putin & Chaos Around The World" U.S. big cap tech stocks like INTC and MSFT have soared on massive volume ever since the Ukraine crisis began.

    "It’s Amazing What People In Europe Are Doing Just To Survive" Exactly. With the Eurocurrency crashing, there is a mad scramble to accumulate U.S. dollars and dishoard gold in the black markets.

    "Gerald Celente - The Global Ponzi Scheme Is On Its Death Bed" Exactly. The Global Ponzi Scheme perpetrated by all the gold pushers outlined below.

    Please help me identify the real professions of these charlatans:

    Eric "Crybaby" King - accountant

    James "Belvedere" Dines - used car salesman

    "General" Jim Sinclair - dog keeper

    Bo Polny - chiropractor

    James "Bond" Rickards - FX bookmaker

    Bill "Wild Turkey" Murphy - ex-NFL alcoholic

    Rick "I'd Love To!" Rule -

    Paul Craig "Moonshiner" Roberts -

    Richard "Godfather" Russell -

    Eric "The Billionaire" Sprott -

    Stephen "Squeaky" Leeb -

    David "Blue Hair" Stockman -

    Egon "Egghead" Von Greyerz -

    James "Month In, Month Out" Turk -

    Michael "Screaming" Pento -

    Peter "Smug Face" Schiff -

    John "Squealer" Embry -

    John "The Monk" Hathaway -

    Ben "Prep School" Davies -


    "World War III, Total Global Collapse & The Greatest Depression"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark you really need to add Gregory "keep stackin" Mannarino to the list.

      Young up and coming PM bs'er selling "got silver" coffee mugs and t-shirts. Wondering if he's wearing his now.

      Delete
    2. Rick Rule- Margin Clerk
      Dr Steven Leeb- Dentist
      Michael Pento- Olive Oil Dealer
      John Embry-Coin Collector
      James Turk-Librarian
      Ben Davies-H.S. Gym Professor

      Delete
    3. Richard Russel-Veteran's Affairs
      John Ing-Motivational Speaker
      Paul Craig Roberts- Corn Farmer
      David Stockman- Sitcom Writer
      Eric Sprott-Gambler

      Delete
    4. Martin"The Fugitive"Amstrong- cat keeper

      Delete
    5. Martin "cat herder" Amstrong

      Delete
  21. Any takers for a follow-through down move on Silver for Monday, Sep 22? Am thinking between another 2-4% down...

    IF: Down 1% $17.61
    Down 2% $17.43
    Down 3% $17.26
    Down 4% $17.08
    Down 5% $16.90
    Down 6% $16.72
    Down 7% $16.54
    Down 8% $16.37
    Down 9% $16.19
    Down 10% $16.01

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Last 3 years around this time. Will the trend break?

      Year Day 23-Sep 26-Sep P/L Return
      2011 Fri-Mon $32.90 $28.16 ($4.74) -14.41%

      Year Day 21-Sep 24-Sep P/L Return
      2012 Fri-Mon $34.69 $33.73 ($0.96) -2.77%

      Year Day 20-Sep 23-Sep P/L Return
      2013 Fri-Mon $22.74 $21.68 ($1.06) -4.66%

      Delete
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      Delete
    3. Something to ponder ladies and gentleman…

      The last major flushings for Silver in the last 6 years have been substantial. The drops are vicious and occur over just a few trading days. Here are the last major drops within the last 6 years:

      2008, Mar 17-20, Down 16%
      2011, Apr 29-May 6, Down 30%
      2011, Sep 21-26, Down 30%
      2013, Apr 12-15, Down 14%
      2014, Sep 18-19, Down 3.9%

      We could have much more to go…

      Delete
  22. None of my opinions over at "the land that time forgot" from several years back has changed regarding my geo-political/war outlook and the slow motion manner in which we find ourselves getting closer to.

    This headline does nothing to dispel my conviction that a major conflict is on the horizon but not necessarily on US or Russian soil.
    A situation or battle in the Artic Circle can't be discounted as not happening first.

    It must be killing Putin to think how much larger Russia would be if they didn't sell it to the U.S back in (insert date here).

    "US F-22 Jets Intercept 6 Russian Warplanes 55 Miles Off The Alaskan Coast"

    Tyler Durden on 09/20/2014 - 10:31

    Yesterday it was the UK which scrambled a squadron of Typhoon jets when two Russian Tu-95 "Bear" Bombers had gotten too close to its shores, even if still located in international space. Then overnight, none other than the US did the same when two F-22 fighter jets intercepted six Russian military airplanes just over 50 miles away from the western coast of Alaska, military officials said Friday, among which identified as two IL-78 refueling tankers, two Mig-31 fighter jets and the same two "Bear" long-range bombers, which are known to carry tactical ICBMs with nuclear warheads among their arsenal.Lt. Col. Michael Jazdyk, a spokesman for the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, said the U.S. jets intercepted the planes about 55 nautical miles from the Alaskan coast at about 7 p.m. Pacific time Wednesday.

    zerohedge.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. yes, DPH, but its entirely OK for the USA to send 2 x BR52s into China's ADIZ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25110011

      or to interfere with the sea trials of its new aircraft carrier http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1382875/us-navy-accused-harassing-carrier-liaoning-south-china-sea-incident?page=all

      or drop sonar buoys into China's EEZ http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/08/28/343970533/china-warns-u-s-over-surveillance-flights

      Delete
    2. I hear what you're saying Zhang.
      Putin's rattling his sword because he can.
      Paybacks a bitch and if the US keeps probing China's coastline (or Ukraine's interior) it'll eventually end up with a bloody nose.
      It seems like were looking for an excuse to engage them in the event either one of them strikes us first.

      High stakes geopolitical poker going on.

      Delete
    3. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1595412/we-dont-want-another-pilot-killed-chinese-admiral-vows-continue


      This is worth registering a (free) account for

      Delete
    4. from that article (which I strongly recommend)

      "Admiral Wu Shengli, commander of the PLA Navy and a member of the Central Military Commission, said that as long as the US continues reconnaissance flights near Chinese territory or waters, China will not stop blocking and intercepting spy planes.

      “It’s become routine for the US to conduct close-in surveillance of China and I don’t see the end of these activities. The US won’t be the US if they stop doing it,” Wu told top US naval officials at an international forum in Newport, Rhode Island, according to the Global Times. “But China’s countermeasures won’t end either.”


      MARK MY WORDS - this is going to get very, very ugly from 2016 - 2018

      Delete
    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    6. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/881538.shtml?

      Delete
    7. I knew that eventually someday, all the commies of the world would unite. I advocate for a preemtive first strike. All those colors, red, yellow, it's like a hair falling in my soup. Everything should be black and white.

      (footnote for the NSA agents : this statement may not really reflect my thoughts. I'll tell you more about how the French behave when I'm in one of your jails.)

      Delete
  23. I needed to know exactly how and when that came about...

    Alaska Purchase

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase

    ReplyDelete
  24. So, nobody really answered Barney's comment about deflation. What is the Fed going to do about it? I assume that is why the commodity sector is crumbling. Surely we've had a healthy commodity sector and a strong dollar before.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. kjm:

      It is important to remember that we had several years of OUTRAGEOUSLY HIGH commodity prices across many different elements of the commodity sector. Copper over $4.00; corn over $7.50 and as high as $8.00. Beans way up in the teens; wheat out of sight, cattle and hog at record levels, etc.

      High prices ALWAYS result in increased production. ALWAYS. No exceptions. What then happens is that the supply increases beyond the ability of the current levels of demand to absorb it. Result is that prices fall.

      Sometimes it does not have that much to do with the Dollar itself but with the fundamentals for each specific commodity class.

      That is why one can have a strong Dollar at times and actually have fairly high commodity prices - the cycle might be such that the demand happens to exceed the supply level.

      However, it is imperative that one also realize that export markets are impacted by currency differentials especially now that we live in a global economy.

      Just like the best cure for high prices is high prices; the best cure for low prices is low prices. The reason is that low prices tend to eventually result in lowered production which balances supply with the level of demand and stops the fall in price. At some point demand then exceeds supply and the price rises.

      It sounds naïve but it really is a matter of economics 101.

      The Fed has been able to enjoy the lower commodity prices because their early attempts at QE did result in speculative buying across the commodity sector. that buying helped take prices to all time highs and sent the signal to producers to produce more.

      Delete
    2. Okay...makes sense....thanks Dan

      Delete
    3. ALso, keep in mind that QE is either disinflationary or delfationary long term. The only way to truly fix a deflation problem is to expand economic freedoms. You CANNOT rely on monetary policy to fix structural or philosophical problems in the economy. After many years of monetary expansion practices, Deflation will become an even larger problem in Europe - guaranteed!

      Delete
  25. I have a few lines on my chart which tend to indicate me that they would be all happy in the same time if Silver was to hit the 15.80 to 16.00 $ area sometime in the end of october.

    Therefore that will be what I'll watch.
    And my bet at the moment is silver hits 16.00 $ in five weeks (and not before) :)

    http://i60.tinypic.com/25qay47.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and for gold 1090 sometime in november.
      This is only a scenario which would "sound nice" given the lines I trace, no more. The scenario can prove wrong, and I'd trade accordingly should it occur.
      But let's say that for now, my "hope" is silver 16 $ end october and gold 1090 $ a bit later in november.

      Delete
    2. Depressing projection but pretty high probability IMHO.

      Dennis Gartman said words to the effect. It will keep going down until it stops.

      I don't subscribe to his service or believe everything he says but this one is 100% true.

      Delete
    3. Thanks for that Hubert…At least it allows me to buy antique sterling silver as christmas gifts for my little niece at a discount…

      Delete
  26. Uh oh...

    Military Plant In East Ukraine Devastated By Massive Explosion; Kiev Accuses Russia Of Using Tactial Nuke

    Tyler Durden on 09/20/2014 - 13:08

    Last night's headlines crowed in bright red flashing text that Russia and Ukraine had (once again) agreed a cease-fire and terms over the borders between the two nations. Perhaps not surprisingly, mere hours later, Ukraine is claiming that Russia has broken the truce... with the use of a tactical nuclear weapon at Luhansk airport. This comes on the heels of claims by the pro-Russia separatists that Kiev forces destroyed a massive military plant in Donetsk. Russia's defense ministry flatly denies the 'nuclear strikes' adding that "no reasonable person will take them seriously." This truce-breaking action has once again raised calls among Ukrainians for the nation to get its nuclear status back; something Russia is clearly strongly against.

    zerohedge.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. a tactical nuclear weapon?
      They should really slow down with the Zubrowka.

      Delete
    2. From Sparks on a lighter note, did any of you see the lame DeAngelis-Fleckenstein interview on CNBC? Whether you did or did not, I ask you, where are Phyllis George and Jayne Kennedy now that we really need them? Enjoy your weekend everyone.

      Delete
    3. Tyler was so excited at the prospect of incipient Nuclear War, he had a little "accident"...What a tool!

      Delete
    4. AS NOT REPORTED IN WESTERN MEDIA:

      http://www.globalresearch.ca/russias-president-vladimir-putin-rejects-ukrainian-separatists-aim-to-become-part-of-russia/5403168

      Delete
  27. Steve,

    I wanted to reach inside the tv while watching that interview. It was a set up. No professionalism whatsoever.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Lots of comments above on Sinclair and Schiff's fundamental reasons for them owning gold.

    The point being that they both offer a fundamental reason for owning gold.

    Same as Dan offers a fundamental reason for not buying gold while deflation is currently winning. Makes sense as gold could go much lower still if the deflation trend is allowed to continue.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is almost no fundamental reason for buying gold right now! You have to understand that Sinclair is nothing more than a salesman. His JOB is nothing more than to hoodwink you into joining his cult and to buy gold.

      Question: would you go to a used car salesman and listen to him tell you that the car you are looking at is the greatest car on earth? That is can go 200mph and last another 1 million miles? Would you then believe every word he said and then go buy the car? Of course not, you are smarter than that. But in the case of charlatans like Sinclair, that is exactly what you are doing. In this case, you do not have the wherewithal to realize that you are being bamboozled by a fraudster who’s goal it is to trick you into signing up with him to go buy gold.

      Delete
  29. BAD NEWS, I'M AFRAID

    PCB has just been arrested for Sleeping with The Enemy:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-20/why-china-russia-china-are-now-enemy

    I suppose I could post bail, but I need the money for a new iPhone

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lan, you are truly a piece of work!!!

      Delete
    2. steve

      you need to get your priorities right:

      http://www.scmp.com/news/china-insider/article/1595331/chinese-student-attempts-rent-out-his-girlfriend-pay-iphone-6

      Delete
    3. At least, on indecent proposal, it was for 1 Million dollars...but the chinese are poor, so an Iphone6 is enough...I wonder if the girlfriend knows about the deal :)

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  30. Lines for iPhones around the world are simply eyepopping.

    I didn't see anyone line up for gold coins when gold was going parabolic in 2011.

    And now the Chinese who have been accumulating gold between $1,200 to $1,350 are going to be dumping en masse if gold breaks down from here, after they realize their mistake.

    Same with U.S. Dollars, they will end up looking like fools for making all these trade deals in other currencies literally days before the dollar went vertical, LOL...

    Supply and demand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Americans, Lan, NOT American's. Remember, I am the Spellcheck Police. hahahahaha

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  31. Has anyone here ever tried out Gary Savage's "Smart Money Tracker?"

    Is this guy another basket case?

    Gary seems to change his mind a lot...but I think it's mostly on short term trades...I think...

    I appreciate all the good helps on this site and it has help out a lot...but so far it's not quite enough for shorter term trades.

    The General and his dogs, Peter the Schiff, Preacher Lindsey Williams and his dark friends, Captain James Turk, The mysterious "V" banker guy, and the rest like these guys are no help at all...in my opinion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gary is a "commodities to the moon" guy. That's his slant, the demise of the dollar, etc, and all his cycle work aims that way. More recently he seems to have also adopted the whole "manipulation" meme, and therefore seems to me to be a bit inconsistent in his work, in my opinion. In any given post he can't seem to decide if commodities should rip higher based of his cycle work, or whether they will be manipulated lower based on his paranoia, and often seems to try to have it both ways. Same thing with stocks. Supposed to get crushed via his cycles, but maybe manipulated higher, crystal ball is fuzzy, try again later.

      Just my opinion, of course.

      It should be noted that Gary posts here at Dan's occasionally, and no doubt might have an opinion about my opinion. I've never subscribed, just occasionally read the free stuff, for what it's worth. I'm not pretending otherwise, but it didn't seem like you were getting any answers, so I decided to dive in.

      Delete
    2. Eric,

      Thanks for the input.

      Yea, I find Gary's site a little interesting but I think I'm gonna pass on his membership for now.

      Yet, his free comments are a little helpful.

      Gary offering a free pass right now to his weekend report, I'm looking over it and well...not a bad read...but it doesn't look like the charts are clear enough for him to read correctly either.

      Delete
    3. Shem and Eric; Most cycle guys are more dangerous than helpful; recently, > being wrong on their 60 year cycle for rising commods, the San Diego Gann Guys threw in the towel on the bull case. The only thing they were right on was stks, and briefly coffee, which they got right on a second bottom fishing expedition, only to dump it at 150 for now good reason, as it then went to 210+. Continued good luck in the mkts.

      Delete
    4. I believe this is part of Gary's problem as well. After getting so much so wrong, he has resorted to the time honored tradition of blaming manipulation for it. And now trying to account for both in his work he seems fairly lost at sea. I think it is 2016 (?) where he is sure the dollar and the stock market will be toast, etc. OK, fine, maybe, but when a guy starts referring to shorter term resistance lines as "manipulation zones", that's when I think he's lost his bearings.

      Delete
  32. If you still want long metal, pick copper which bit stronger than gold right now. USD could be pull back for a while

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. the Scots have been picking on coppers for a few days now (including thos on horseback) http://img.rt.com/files/galleryitem/7f/84/00/00/2.pd.jpg

      Delete
    2. Not see Scots but Monday market opening

      Delete
  33. Nobody had a whole lot to say about the Alibaba ipo, but man, talk about a cash vacuum. Nearly a quarter trillion dollars. Would it be fair to say all that money came from liquidating existing stocks? Even if it was highly margined, that's still a pile of loot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BABA raised about $30 billion, it's not like they put the entire company for sale.

      Delete
    2. Good point..........my mistake

      Delete
    3. BABA traded 280 million shares on Friday, more than SPY, DIA, IWM, QQQ, and GLD combined on triple witching and Russell 2000 rebalancing, LOL....

      Now that is "demand" for an investment.

      What are the odds of a "natural resource" stock trading that kind of volume? Odds are probably better betting PowerBall when the jackpot is over $300 million, LOL....

      Delete
  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  35. one final thought: a few days ago I posted a comment about Social Unrest in China, and compared it to the 2011 riots in the UK

    here we go again: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-29295541

    apologies, Dan. I will now cease & desist from politicizing your Blog, which performs an invaluable service which I acnowledge should be focused on trading & investment, not on exposing and ridiculing endemic lies & hypocrisy

    ReplyDelete
  36. OK, ok, I am sure Dan will delete this Comment if he considers it inappropriate, but this just popped up on Zerohedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-20/why-socialism-doesnt-work

    Ignore, if you will, how I personally feel about the depiction of a "cute & hot" little Asian girl fawning over the heroic manly Western tourist ("Me love you long time" anyone?) and focus instead on the supreme idiocy behind this article: since the coup d'etat in 1998, Cambodia has been ruled for the past 16 years by a one-party a Marxist-Leninist regime http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Cambodia

    The title to this masterpiece of cretinous jizz states that "Socialism Doesn't Work" and then goes out of its way to give a worked-example case study of how it does. Or, rather, how what you lot have been brought up to believe Socialism looked like isn't anything of the sort

    Investment advice:

    Long Cute Asian Babes, short flaccid western tourists

    or, for those of you wishing to diversify into Islamic investments

    http://longorshortcapital.com/burqa-burka-arbitrage.htm

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. oh, and by the way - the article published today on Zerohedge was actually first issued in November 2013: http://joshgalt.com/what-a-cambodian-girl-taught-me-about-the-entrepreneurial-spirit/

      In between times, you Americans keep falling for the sultry charms of dusky oriental maidens: https://news.yahoo.com/former-us-officer-leaked-secrets-chinese-girlfriend-211411366.html?

      Is that a prejudice you have in youpr pocket, or are you just happy to see me?

      Delete
    2. Don't worry Lan.
      Now there is nothing you can do about it : you are chinese. Bad karma.
      Be patient and you'll be american someday.
      Then, if you are really lucky and have a great karma, maybe you'll have a chance to be French.
      But that's after many lives as an american already, so let's do it one step at a time :)

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. You are simply jealous of our best worldwide representatives such as Christine L, Dominique SK, and our current president :)
      High morality for each of them.
      The weigh of such an important destiny is sometimes hard to bear, and the weakest French become alcohoolic (14 bottles of alcoohol per day for some) and leave their country to flee from their glorious fate.

      http://www.lepoint.fr/people/gerard-depardieu-boit-14-bouteilles-d-alcool-par-jour-17-09-2014-1864165_2116.php

      http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/mar/25/gerard-depardieu-cvstos-watches-proud-to-be-russian

      Anyway, the French are the greatest complainers in the world, and that can prove quite useful in some cases.
      When they don't think too much of themselves (ok, it's near to impossible, but after all, it's difficult when you know you live in the best country in the world :)), they can be quite nice, except with the germans, twice a century.

      http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xb9gyh_louis-de-funes-bourvil-a-la-kommand_fun

      Delete
    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    6. and to think, I was being polite......

      (I didn't mention "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" even once! )

      I quite admire the French, actually - all those noble and heroic characters such as Hercule Poirot, Inspector Clouseau, Cpt Jean-Luc Picard (of Starship Voyager fame), Stella Artois (the famous French barmaid), Thérèse Raquin, Remy Martin, Madame Fanny La Fan http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madame_Fanny_La_Fan and last but not least Celine Dion (in "Titanic")

      Here is a handy cut-out-and-keep guide for our American friends: http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/HowTo:Be_French

      Delete
    7. Thanks for this nice addition.
      I also warmly recommend :
      http://www.stephenclarkewriter.com/book-stephen-clarke.php?id=00007

      but no matter how hard you try, you will never really make it.
      French is not something one can learn. You are born French, or you are not. It is just too difficult a skill to learn, too high a mountain of glory to climb, too rare a privilege to share.

      But for the sake of discussion, let's admit it's somehow possible to become French by accident, and then there is a question in the link you posted which is worth focusing on (from my French nombrilisic self centered narcissistic point of view, of course) : what makes someone French?

      "Mr. Sabeg was born in Algeria when it was French territory and moved to France with his family as an infant. His father worked as a laborer and later a mechanic to put him through a Jesuit boarding school, and he went on to earn a Ph.D. at the Sorbonne.

      He scoffs at the notion of a French identity based on what he believes is a fiction of equal rights and France's reluctance to engage in debate about the gap between ideals and reality. "France doesn't know how to manage diversity," he said. "It doesn't want to accept the consequences of a multiethnic society."

      Like most French schoolchildren, he was taught that his ancestors were Gauls and that "in 732, Charles Martel, the Mayor of the Palace, repelled the Arabs in Poitiers."

      1) yes, it is absolutely correct, you have to be a descendant of Charles Martel.
      2) you must speak english the way we do. An absence of french "R" will eliminate you immediately.

      For me, to be French means essentially to have the audacity to open your big mouth when everyone else's remains shut.
      One of the nicest demonstration can be found here :

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJ_1hWqSz6I

      And especially when you watch what Irak became today.
      Unfortunately, I think those times are gone for a while.

      As I read recently :
      "If you can keep your head when all about you
      Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,.." :)

      Delete
    8. But fortunately, I know better about myself and what it means to be French through the american movies about us :)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl1tSOV_syw

      Delete
  37. "The key point to watch is the support at last year’s lows, which is not far beneath the trendline, but we should also note that Big Money may force a brief move below this support to trigger stops and run investors out of their positions before a sudden reversal."

    A brief move below?
    Before a sudden reversal?

    How do you know, my friend?
    Why such a bullish biais, too?
    One more analyst I put in the same drawer as others. Not objective. Living in his hopes, not in reality. Noone can know what will happen if 1180 are broken.

    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68&PHPSESSID=3cd48c685b66771c83de36a9d44eb046


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Rubbish, HDH!

      I know precisely what will happen if 1180 is taken out:

      The sun will still come up in the morning, the birds will still sing in the trees, the flowers will still blossom in my garden, the French will still be odious garlic-munching mime artists wearing berets, stripy shirts and riding bicycles laden with onions, and the Gold bugs will still keep yakking on about how its all so unfair and $2000 is coming tomorrow. Or the day after. Or the next tomorrow...

      Delete
    2. Compare & comtrast:

      1.Typical French peasants

      Exhibit a: http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2807/9278811692_a4db7029c4_m.jpg

      Exhibit b: http://www.thefootdown.com/blog/images/2013/10/onion-johnny-french-onions-bike.jpg

      Exhibit c: http://blog.whatfettle.com/archives/onions.jpg

      2. Stylish Asian chick wearing camouflage en vacances

      http://thumb7.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/381634/381634,1245253572,1/stock-photo-beautiful-girl-with-red-bandana-beret-and-striped-shirt-in-a-classic-s-french-look-32198989.jpg

      Pretty convincing, I trust you'll agree

      Delete
    3. The cognitive dissonance of Mr. Clive Maude's post is frightening…Essentially he's saying No Big Whoop for gold but watch out below for Copper and Oil, which both, according to his chart, look like they are going to do an Air France 447.

      Delete
    4. Speaking of Clives, there is a lovely valedictory poem by Clive James published in the New Yorker 2 weeks ago and by the Guardian "Japanese Maple."

      Delete
    5. Lan, you forgot another important trope my daughter has identified: the little girl chasing her rolling hoop through the street, crying "Maman, du pain! du pain!" No self-respecting French film would be complete without it...;-)

      HDH: Thanks for the Bourvil/DeFunes link--comedic masters!

      Delete
    6. Even ISIS have now latched on to the fact that the French don't wash regularly: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-21/isis-slams-mule-jews-obama-demands-killing-disbelievers-especially-filthy-french

      Delete
  38. A few months ago I suggested those with long term metal holdings which like myself are not for sale and held for more than a decade to hedge your position in event of large pullbacks using futures short positions. This way you can have your cake and eat it. You leverage the power of the market both up and down. You will never time the market perfectly but you will have funds to buy more Gold when you cash in the the futures short position. So use the leverage of the much larger paper market to fund your next metal purchase it's a win win. History proves the path of least resistance is up, Gold as do most assets appreciate against FIAT long term so go with the flow don't fight it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Are you aware that gold was sideways to down between the early 1980s to around the year 2000? I would not assume gold always and forever goes up unless you consider yourself a vampire that can live many centuries into the future. Over the past 100 years, gold has on average moved about 2x to 3x the annual CPI. But, between 1999 to 2011 gold exploded to a value over 8x the annual CPI. Right now it is about 5x to 6x the annual CPI. It is likely to drop back to 2x or lower and could undershoot the annual CPI for many years before moving back to historical averages again.

      Delete
  39. Just a simple observation from the Don't Pass Line. Assuming an arbitrary 5-20% holding of pm's in a portfolio, why, at least to me, does it seem like perma bulls are preoccupied with the smallest segment of their portfolios? Is it stepping over $100 bills to pick up nickels and dimes, or is it cutting off one's nose to spite the face? The last point I will make is that it is rarely mentioned, but the fact of the matter is that gold acts better in disinflationary or deflationary periods than commods in general and if you do not realize that, you obviously are ignoring the charts. And as far as the hyperinflationists go, well, I do not want to be part of that sonofabitching movie, to say the least. That is all.

    ReplyDelete
  40. The key question is this:

    How far down does gold have to go before the Blue Hairs which attend the Q & A sessions throw in the towel?

    How far up does XLY, XRT, XLP have to go to convince these people that the consumer has never been stronger?

    By way of example, XLY has run from $15 to $69 since 2009 with only one correction that exceeded 10%.

    While it seems that GLD has 10%+ corrections 3 - 4 times a year and for the most part seems locked in a downtrend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would like to have seen a recording of yesterday's Q&A at the Hilton Garden Inn, Nashville. Which would probably help answer the question raised by Sparks--The unstated percentage of these portfolios that was poured into gold and far worse, junior miners (gold in the ground that could not be confiscated, especially if it were located in a bourn out of the reach of evil Western powers--say Tranzania).

      Delete
  41. Did I miss something?

    "Kelly-Ann Kearsey, Dealing Manager at the online precious metals trader, said, 'We saw a continued interest in Silver.

    Our customers carried on where they left off last week and across the board we had more buyers than sellers with silver being the metal of choice.

    'Gold was mostly sold out of the UK and Swiss vaults with Singapore benefitting from the purchasing. There was very little other activity for Platinum and Palladium, and it's a wait and see game to find out at what point the buyers return to gold as the price drop encourages bargain hunting.

    'Overall, volumes are slightly lower, but with more buyers than sellers compared to last week. Tomorrow's quadruple options witching and next week's US durable goods orders, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and Chinese Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), could provide further impetus to the market'


    http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-sell-off-continues-but-silver-still-attracts-226452

    That article was dated 19th, and I thought that Silver closed at $17.83, down from $18.83 on Tuesday?

    I wonder if this buoyant and optimistic outlook is in any way influenced by the strapline "GoldMoney is one of the world's leading providers of physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium for retail and corporate customers. "? Maybe they make money come rain or shine, as long as they can dupe some poor fool into buying their wares

    If you want to see how frothed-up, bitter & twisted some of these twerps can be, check out the guy flaming me over on HiddenSecretsofMoney.com: http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/blog/the-big-picture-for-gold-and-silver

    Frankly, I think this kind of hostility is almost poetic, and could in some ways be considered an art form

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow--that's some wild, wacky stuff, over there! Loved the idiot who said his PMs had lost no value...

      Delete
    2. Lan please keep forwarding these gems

      Delete
  42. General Jim: "I'm fully committed to gold"

    Easy for him to say.

    Same with Richard Russell.

    They have already made their fortunes.

    General Jim made his by unloading a huge batch of TRX shares at the highs.

    The "Godfather" made his after 50+ years of 250,000 subscribers paying him to hear his WWII stories.

    To them they don't need any more money to retire. Investing in gold is now simply a hobby for them. A speculation.

    Meanwhile, the Blue Hairs in Nashville this weekend are now wondering what to do now after "getting out of the system" and now have way, way too much gold.

    Very sad situation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How much carnage do they have to cause before they admit that they were wrong.?

      Delete
  43. Hello Dan,

    Great post and follow up comments.

    I went along with the bugs on the fear s that QE would cause inflation.

    Obviously that was wrong. So I have been looking into the mechanics of the money creation process. The vast majority of money is created through the fractional reserve banking system, NOT the Fed's POMO or QE operations.

    The bug promoters never mention this, It's all QE to infinity with them.

    There will be no inflation until we get a nice move up in total credit.

    I remember you had a chart of money velocity.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

    If go there and check that chart out you see very clearly why the commodity sector is falling.

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  44. Dan- Thank you for the excellent commentary/analysis on the COT reports and the PM and Ag charts this week. You have presented some insightful analysis on these PM and grain markets the entire way down. Seems the livestock markets, since they have become so extended, may also present some trading opportunities ahead. I haven't been following them for that long (less than a year) but long enough to know they can be very volatile.

    Do you follow chocolate market at all? Cocoa prices have been in a strong uptrend for well over a year on reported global scarcity and strong demand...

    ReplyDelete
  45. My current perception of what silver will do price wise is it will continue to fall/move sideways for sometime to come. When it will bottom and at what price nobody knows for sure. What I do find interesting about silver is it's long term fundamentals many of which can be found here; https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/
    I see a metal that is growing in industrial/medical, etc. uses which leaves the metal mostly consumed because recycling aspect would depend on much higher prices. As the price of silver along with base metals and gold, where silver is a by-produce, continues to fall and because of the economics of mining will not supply be squeezed?
    and price move up?
    How long could this take to come to pass?
    At what point is silver a good store of value in it's relation to purchasing power relative to other things?
    What would happen to bond holders around the world if interest rates rise?
    Where do you invest in the stock market, i.e. what sectors if you are risk adverse?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I found (and quoted on here) an article a few days back which notes that annual Silver production is currently running 7,000 tons in excess of demand - hence the warehouses and ETF's being stuffed to the gills

      Yes, if rates rose, Bond holders and many economies would be royally stuffed: do you see anything actually forcing that to happen any time soon? I totally agree that ZIRP is an artificial and corrosive construct, but what is stopping them continue it while the USD is riding high?

      Inevitably, Silver will find support and at least level out; what is in issue is whether - as Mike Maloney would have you believe - the time to buy is "NOW" (for a once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity) and whether it is going to rise to e.g. $50 within 6 weeks (which is what Turk asserted during June).

      In the stock market, investment in utilities and manufacturers of consumer durables tend to be countercyclical; people still need to wash their clothes, and washing machines don't wear out in synchrony with peaks & troughs of the economic cycle (and nor do people queue overnight to buy the latest iWhirlpool 6 model as soon as it is released)

      Delete
    2. Zhang, thanks for your reply, do you have the link to silver production article? In silver institute link
      https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/ they show 113 million ounce deficit for 2013. Do you have any other resources for supply/demand data for silver? It is my understand you live in Asia do you have any feel for silver investment sentiment? Thanks for all your thoughtful posts.

      Delete
    3. Sorry - it was 6000 tons, not 7

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/silver-buyers-keep-stacking-and-demand-higher-despite-falling-prices?page=1

      "Globally, 26,000 tonnes of silver are mined each year and about 7,000 tonnes of silver is recovered through recycling and scrap. Industrial demand accounts for 14,500 tonnes, jewellery demand for 8,000 tonnes, coin demand for 2,500 tonnes and photography for 1,700 tonnes".

      So that leaves 6000 tons of annual surplus production - little wonder, therefore, that warehouse inventory is spiraling upwards: http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart3_18-09-14.png

      After the obligatory rant about manipulation of the London fix, he reaches the baffling conclusion that "both gold and silver remain undervalued and are in the process of bottoming. We remain confident gold and silver will see new record highs in the coming years. Both will continue to act as hedges and safe havens against the considerable risk in the world today".

      What, so the warehouse inventory and the 6000 tons of surplus production are just going to vansh into thin air? It's lame - nothing has changed, and the same old mantras keep getting trotted out : "Silver remains undervalued vis a vis gold with gold silver ratio at over 66. At $18.59, it is some 63% below the record nominal price of $50/oz in 1980 and again in April 2011".

      Delete
  46. Armstrong's ECM is calling for $675 gold as a worst case scenario in this recent radio interview, $875-915 likely scenario:

    http://www.cknw.com/business/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Only 5 years ago, gold never had made it above 1000 $.
      This is not the time to accumulate.

      Delete
    2. only $400 for Armstrong's report. A bargain compared to Bo Polny's opus & at least he's not a touting a gold mine(s) that he's been kicking around for a decade with nothing to show for it.

      Delete
    3. it could hit 850. I think we will look back at 1200 with fondness. I do agree that it depends on how fast the metals and energy hits these numbers. We still have a year or two left of this downside pressure. The length of time is more important that the downside number. If the US is required to get more of its energy needs domestically sooner rather than later, energy price could rebound better.

      The fact that we could not sustain 1300 gold with all that long positioning lends the thought that the pent up energy will be downward. It could surprise many.

      just fully hedge any physical and perhaps add to any short on any short term overbought conditions.

      If we drop from here to 850, that is only 350 more. 1200 is halfway from the 1550 breach.

      Delete
    4. I come back to the chart which Jesse quoted and then totally misinterpreted: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-BPuMpvQL6HI/VBzZOWcOHTI/AAAAAAAA5tM/RFkabO87YSM/s1600/goldchartlen.png

      there is a bottom in October 08 at $681, marked "45% retracement" (whatever one of those is) and whilst I am not anticipating those levels any time soon, as a baseline to work from, there could be some interesting bands around $1156 (38.2% of the range up to $1923) and $1010 - 1030 (38.2% of the range up to the apparent break-down point around $1600)

      Delete
  47. If gold goes through 1180, I think I found the appropriate link for all the gold bugs who chose to accumulate endlessly in the bargain prices, instead of just keeping a reasonable long physical gold position in case of the worst.
    It might be 27 years as well before they see the sun, I mean, the break even point. I find it very inspirational from a gold believer fully loaded in gold, especially if he sold the house as well.
    I sincerely don't wish it to you, guys.
    I'm just trying to make you realize this is not time to accumulate into "weakness". Don't become greedy. Use gold as a protection against the worst, and forget about it.
    Besides, I love this link in itself :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FozhZHuAcCs

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hubert, thanks for your valued input. I guess I need to get some answers to all that is swirling around my head lately. You seem to be very level headed and not motivated to spew venom at precious metal lovers. So maybe you can shed some light on these issues.
    How long can the US continue going deeper into debt?
    Can the government sustain rising real interest rates?
    Should precious metal investors sell now as everyone who has stacked for the last 4 years showing a loss? Where could that lost capital be made up? Would it be better to stay the course?
    What do you make of the brics trying to get out from under $US hegemony?
    Do you think the fed is going to create prosperity for the average guy with their policies?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Siverwood,

      I can't tell you what to do, but I can tell you what I have done.

      In early August I sold all my mining stocks. I then hedged my physical position by buying longer term puts on GLD and SLV.

      Seeing that silver has busted it's support and that gold could too, I think it may be wise to hedge yourself.

      On your other questions, Until China develops a Treasury market as big as ours, they will have a tough time competing for those huge capital flows.

      Also, The US Dollar is NOT backed by the "Full Faith and credit of the US Govt" it is backed the guns and bombs of our military. Until that is strongly challenged the dollar will hold most of it's "Value".

      QE has meaningless to inflation, Watch the money velocity, total credit and reconstituted M3 figures. Those will give you a clue to when inflation returns. Also watch the commodity indexes if they falling we will not experience inflation.

      Cheers!

      Delete
    2. Silverwood, this is only my personal opinion to your questions.
      As an aside, I don't think neither Dan, me, or many other participants to this blog are here for the pleasure of mocking and lauging at gold bugs but rather to help them, i.e I'm not the only one.

      - How long can the US continue going deeper into debt?
      I don't know.My feeling is it's a matter of confidence into fiat and that USD is acting as a tsunami. It is sucking all the other currencies to him, now the Euro, because it is still considered as the safest of them all. It is also the deepest (Armstrong) and so, the only way to park a lot of money. US are taking advantage of the crisis happening all over the world, and now of the tensions between Europe and Russia, leading to Germany's and France's indicators plunging in the red.

      Can the government sustain rising real interest rates?
      It also depends of what happens around. I'm afraid this bail-in / bail-out / great levelling or whatever you call it may take place, with some selected defaults elsewhere. So honestly, I don't have a clue about the answer.

      Should precious metal investors sell now as everyone who has stacked for the last 4 years showing a loss?
      Once more, too vague a question. At what price did they buy? Whaat % of their portfolio? Can they stand the losses? Is it an investment or an insurance? I don't know when it will end, but I think the inf bollinger band on the quarterly time unit will provide a fine support before year end if we should meet it. That means I think that gold will bounce above 1000 and will probably re-test 1180. What would happen next is anyon's guess. Anyhow, we haven't broken 1180 yet, so who knows? All I can suggest to gold bulls now is : don't load up the truck, don't have too large a position, even sell a bit of it, like 30% if it helps you feel better. Don't consider it as an investment anymore, but as a protection. Keep the remaining gold whatever happens and don't sell it at 1000 $. If you bought above 1500 $, don't sell more than 50% of your position now or later. You don't know where are the lows. Keep at least 50% of your long position, so that you have a chance to break even in the future. Accept to see your remaining line reach 1000 $, try to trade dynamically with the part you sold now, by buying te dips when they will materialize. For now, they don't materialize, this is a falling knife. There will be a time to buy, and you must have cash available to do so.

      What do you make of the brics trying to get out from under $US hegemony?
      I wish them good luck and hope this won't end up into war.

      Do you think the fed is going to create prosperity for the average guy with their policies?
      Absolutely not :) Was that a real question? :)

      Delete
  49. " It might be 27 years as well before they see the sun, I mean, the break even point. I find it very inspirational from a gold believer fully loaded in gold, especially if he sold the house as well. "

    Come on man, 27 years ?

    The market is completely different today. In the late 70's the gold bull resulted in massive new discoveries along with the improvement of heap leaching techniques. This produced a massive increase in the amount of gold available to the market. Mines can last up to 20 + years. Gold bottomed after most of the mines from the 80's discovery boom played out.

    Supply and demand fundamentals hold for the gold market just like any other market. With this gold bull though, there has NOT been a massive explosion of new mines even though exploration budgets exploded.

    Pascua Lama, Fruta Del Norte, BruceJack, none of these will ever be mines at this price.

    In 06, world gold production was around 2400 MT, in 2013 it was 2770MT
    and that figure is even with high grading. Unlike the 80's there is no glut of new mines coming on board anytime soon.

    In 1980, world gold production was around 1200MT in 1990 it was around 2200MT. A production jump like that will not happen this time around.

    So why won't it happen ? Because grades are falling.

    In 2005 the average grade was 1.68 grams per ton. In 2013 it was 1.04 grams per ton. That translates into a huge increase in costs just to stay even.

    ReplyDelete
  50. The miners have gotten by through slashing their exploration budgets.

    So we have falling grades and slashed exploration budgets. What does that bode for the long term (5yrs) price of gold?

    The gold bugs who bought because of QE and "The DEATH of the dollar" have been made fools. But the longer term fundamentals are still solid.

    I have hedged my physical position and sold the miners I owned.

    But I will be back on the long side at some point. The fundamentals are too good.

    Maybe when the swap dealers are long and the managed money is net short?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KB
      I believe you say the gold price should go up due to decreasing supply.due to low grade and miners going out of business.
      This would be true for a commodity that is consumed and has a short storage life. Gold has exactly the opposite conditions. Traded and stored as bars, coins or jewelry with infinite life and little consumption.

      To make gold go up we need increased demand. If the market $s don't demand gold it won't go up. Look at GLD's holdings for an indicator.

      If the demand is not from all the hedge funds going longer and longer it will be from new and extreme dislocation. Like maybe a couple countries going BK and fear of contagion. Not a pretty prospect.

      The individual investor needs years and years to erase the pain of losses before he will venture out again. Don't know if HDH has it right at 27 years but that's about the right amount of time for a new crop of suckers to be big in the market.

      Delete
    2. Gold is a market like any other market. Longer term it's all about supply and demand.

      The reason gold had a 20 year bear market is because production went from 1200MT in 1980 to 2200MT in 1990.

      Just like farmers who planted every acre they could when corn was near $8. The money flooded into the miners and they spent it on opening new mines. Also heap leaching technique improvements.

      The farmers increase the supply of corn and as a result the price falls. The miners increase the supply of gold and as a result the price falls.

      I strongly disagree that gold should be looked at differently than any other market. The main reason gold is a stable money is because it's supply increases (Usually) at the same rates as the total world wide population increases.

      Also, Americans don't buy gold as a rule. Indians, Chinese and the people of the emerging markets buy gold. One of the reasons I see for the past gold bull market is that these folks have been getting richer.

      I see gold as a bet on the continued advance of the emerging markets.

      Chers!

      Delete
  51. Gold makes a huge run every 7 - 10 years or so.

    Maybe we get another big run up, but that's probably 4 years away, maybe 7 years away.

    Last peak was only 3 years ago

    ReplyDelete
  52. Hedge funds extended this year’s longest exit from bullish gold bets as slumping prices and investor outflows since June erased $6.7 billion from the value of exchange-traded funds backed by the metal.

    The net-long position in New York futures and options fell for a fifth straight week, with speculators boosting short bets to the highest since June, U.S. government data show. Investors sold 7.75 metric tons of gold held in ETPs last week, sending holdings to the lowest in five years.

    Prices tumbled to an eight-month low on Sept. 19 after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for interest rates, crimping demand for an inflation hedge. The appeal of gold also is waning as the U.S economic recovery sends the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of shares to a record and the dollar to the highest since 2010. Gold’s 60-day volatility is near a four-year low, and open interest was almost the lowest since 2009.

    “There are no compelling reasons to be in gold,” said Brian Levitt, a New York-based economist at OppenheimerFunds Inc., which manages $251.4 billion. “There are no inflationary pressures. You have a central bank that’s going to tighten sooner than most of its trading partners. That to me portends a strong dollar and weaker gold prices.”


    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-21/gold-bulls-extend-2014-exit-as-slump-erases-6-7-billion.html

    ReplyDelete
  53. Mark, about that strong dollar what consequences does it have to our debt and funding needs?I heard Jim P over financial sense say that new factories are being built by the international corps here. What does that strong dollar do to that equation? Gold may be dead for awhile due to all that exists for potential supply but what about silver? Will that gold/silver ratio reverse as the economy picks up and silver's industrial component kicks it?

    ReplyDelete
  54. $17.60 silver being printed in Asia. Wow.

    Anyone who bought PM's this past year is now realizing that was a huge mistake.

    The buyers will become sellers when support gives way on gold, as it already has on silver.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Gold and silver just went vertical when Hong Kong opened up.
    $1200 and 17.50 about to happen?

    ReplyDelete
  56. This is not looking encouraging, izzit

    Without assigning any kind of probability, let's just pause for a moment and look at the magnitude of recent swings

    - SIlver is down from $22 to $17.50: it is therefore entirely plausible that it could go down another $4.5 to $13. If anyone had suggested this 6 months ago, they would have been laughed out of court

    - Gold is off $350 from the mid-1500's breakdown point; it is therefore surely not absurd to at least look into the abyss and see numbers below $1,000. Again, a few months back (when the bottom was "in") people would have scoffed - and in fact did when Goldmans predicted such

    It does not matter whether this is due to manipulation, Chinese imports or Fairies at the bottom of the Garden - the price is what it is, and the market really couldn't care less what you think about that

    The darkness still has work to do here

    ReplyDelete
  57. Gold looks like a trooper compared to silver's free fall tonight so far.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh there it goes.

      This will be an interesting week.

      Armstrong's prediction says if gold falls too hard too soon now, then it will hit the worst case scenario by 2015, meaning the $600 range.

      Yikes.

      Delete
    2. Prophet; There are traders and there are letter writers. Mr. Spellcheck and Socrates are letter writers, NOT operators.

      Delete
    3. Steve not sure what your beef is with MA. From what I have seen he is by far been the closest and most consistent on market calls:

      -USD rally
      -soaring stock market
      -gold collapse
      -many others over the decades

      Who cares if his spell check is not to the tee for the amount of free info he gives to the public.

      If I'd knew of his sooner I would have saved myself a bundle instead of being brainwashed by JSmineset.

      Delete
  58. Measured move on gold: $1,800 to $1,200 is $600.

    Another $600 move from the $1,400 high looks like a low around $800.

    There doesn't appear to be any low on Silver as all downside support levels are now gone. Maybe $10 which is the 2009 lows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You know, there is a point at which I will probably just "back up the truck" and start buying again - but that is not going to be determined by price, rather, by momentum and sentiment

      Even at $1 and asset can still lose 90% of its market value, and although many would have you believe that "now" is the time to buy, or you will miss the opportunity, from a strict Regret perspective http://www.inquire-europe.org/seminars/2009/papers%20Edinburgh/BrunoCurrency-Regret-FULL.pdf I would far prefer to "miss the boat" and pay $24 for Silver in a rising market than $12 in a collapsing one

      Delete
  59. 4-Years of "Keep Stackin" now in a losing position.

    Just think of all those guys on Zero Hedge who must feel like complete fools for not investing in the S & P 500 instead.

    ReplyDelete
  60. Despite Pressure, Is Silver Ready To Turn Mega-Bullish?


    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/21_Despite_Pressure,_Is_Silver_Ready_To_Turn_Mega-Bullish.html

    not just "bullish" - MEGA-bullish

    my short-form answer would be "probably not"

    ReplyDelete
  61. Amazing how clueless the masses really are.

    Almost everyone on this blog is bearish on gold and perhaps for good reason if deflation is going to be allowed to win.

    But will you all call the Dow and S&P perma bulls charlatans and crooks if the Dow and S&P collapse when they are still telling you daily on bubblevision Tv to keep buying stocks?

    Or do you perhaps believe the Fed has somehow created an new economic system where money can just be printed forever to prop this illusion up?

    Or is it really real perhaps?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. barney, how much fiat did they print (or taper or whatever it is you believe they are doing) over the weekend to cause this sell off in Asia this morning?

      come on, fess up: what's happening here is not due to monetary policy, is it

      Delete
    2. Had not looked at Asia yet Zhang, but see its tanking as another 10 billion was shaved of QE last week.

      Thats my point here, if all the central banks stop printing money, and get out of the markets, what will the Dow and S&P and gold and silver etc. look like?

      Will the trend be up or down do you think?

      Should I go long the Dow and gold if the central banks stop printing money?

      Delete
    3. you should perhaps hold a diversified portfolio which does not over-emphasise any individual asset class; if you are intent on active discretionary investment, than I would respctfully recommend that you wait until a trend establishes itself, and then follow that avidly

      changes in trend are, to a large extent, dependent upon changes in sentiment which, by and large, are in turn dependent upon new information coming into the market; a such - and given that none of us have a crystal ball - it is always prudent to leave a little "on the table" and not try to hunt down the low tick and then wait for the high-tick to sell

      focus. be disciplined. and remember that "sitting on your hands for a while" can often be the best trading strategy in uncertain markets

      Delete
    4. Here is a snapshot of the Silver market at 10:28am Singapore time:

      http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_52yZSj-hdVg/TGwXI8i2r8I/AAAAAAAAAEk/6-Q9MfzxrU4/s1600/saupload_dead_cat_bounce_doj_4.jpg

      Delete
    5. Should be interesting Zhang, without the central banks money printing the trend in the markets may be deflation now.

      Europe had better start QE soon to help the Fed.

      Delete
    6. time to change that tin whistle, barney - there are other tunes to dance to

      Delete
    7. Just quit worrying about QE. Quit trying to outguess everything. Even the most elementary of trend following techniques, such as a simple 200 day or 10 month moving average, would have had you in metals for the whole bubble move and had you out again around 1600, before the worst of the wipeout began. In stocks it would have had you in a lot from 09-10, then chopped around a bit, then solidly in from late 2012 all the way to now. In hindsight that all looks pretty darn good. Tons better than chasing your tail all the time trying to outguess everything on the planet ( and getting much of it wrong).

      Delete
    8. Which tune do we dance to Zhang, the deflation tune?

      Or do you see assets going up in price still if the central banks exit?

      Delete
    9. TuneS barney - plural

      There us more than one thing going on. You need to snap out if this one-dimensional thinking: you can't explain everything by just obsessively referring to deflation vs QE

      Delete
    10. Well Zhang, when I see the obvious pattern over the years of QE ending and deflation starting each time change then I will stop referring to deflation vs QE

      Maybe this time will be different though but so far does not look like it.

      Delete
  62. I see a low of $17.25 and $1207 so far.

    At this rate $16 looks like a slam dunk. Pretty amazing to think that $15 could verily easy happen.


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  63. DPH, lets hope it goes to single digits for awhile. But if your committed to silver and you purchased in the last 4 years would this not be a way to cost average your position. Can low teens silver prices be sustained or will mining economics eventually come into play? To sell your position into weakness would most like cause one to never recoup your capital. These low silver prices should stimulate industrial consumption. So prudence suggest be patient and wait it out.

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  64. This guy David P. out of Europe is priceless with his 400 week moving average on gold. Trust me, it works every time monkeys fly out of his ass.

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  66. Seasonal, new moon and 7 years from the top of 2000 to the top of 2007. It is due.By the way, for 14 years Demark sequencing MONTHLY very good. It called exactly top of 1999, top 2007, bottom 2009,top 2011 but wrong only once on 2013 Sep. This Sep 2014 is 11st for TD Monthly Countdown. So 2 more months to go ? But we don’t need to wait for 13rd because the high of 8th Countdown (June) already passed. Meanwhile, technically when ADX monthly crosses over both DI+ and DI- and then rolls over, time for taken profit if you long. If using Accumulative Swing Index by Welles Wilders, the market also at peak. Lastly, bond due to rebound. So let short :)
    Sorry Dan if I refer to moonphase in trading

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  67. G20 news out this morning saying they want Europe to create
    2 trillion dollars and add it to the markets.

    Also wondering if Europe does this 2 trillion in stimulus would this be manipulation of the markets or does it not count as manipulation?

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  68. Its only manipulation when China does it (or doesn't, but gets blamed for it anyhow)

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    1. I see Postcolonial,

      so when the central banks in the west don't like the direction that their markets are going and try to change their direction with their policies its not manipulation.

      Housing, stocks, bonds, to name a few.

      The east only does manipulation of their markets.

      Got it thanks.

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    2. Phew

      At least you got SOMETHING at long last (even if it was The Wrong End of the Stick)

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  69. "Even ISIS have now latched on to the fact that the French don't wash regularly:"
    Are you married to a Brit or what?
    OK, you are being polite, you added regularly.
    Even in Argentina, I was asked on the beach by a beautiful woman (I don't put my towel randomnly on the beach when I'm single, I can walk a long way, hey I'm French just leave me alone :)) if it was true that French never washed. When I seemed surprised at first, she insisted this was why France was the country of perfumes. To hide the other smells...
    So, I could only confirm to the youg lady this was why I was going to the beach on holiday once a year : to scrub my body with sand, because French are disgusted with water and will not tolerate any contact with their fragile skin.
    I'm sure you also know about that joke : if you want to hide something from a French, where should you put it?...under the soap.

    I told you it's a hard destiny to assume...everybody hates us, especially the brits, of course, but that is part of a long love/hate tradition :) (especially since Hastings, Henri II, Joan of Arc, Napoleon, etc... What are two small world wars as allies in the face of such a ancient confrontation.).
    Speaking of which, I recommend this movie, I'm never tired of watching it.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lion_in_Winter_(1968_film)

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  70. Watch out for Copper!
    Now trading under 305 $.
    This could be the signal of an acceleration towards 290 as well.

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    1. looool! At least now we see to which network Capital Stars is associated.

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