“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Friday, September 26, 2014

Speculators Endorsing Lower Copper Prices

Based on the recent COT report through Tuesday of this week, every single category of speculator, is on the net short side of the copper market, whether it be hedge funds, other large reportables or the general public.

Swap Dealers are carrying the entirety of the net long interest in this market at the current time.

Copper prices have been grinding steadily lower due to concerns over slowing global economic growth, especially in China but got a bit of a respite today on the US GDP number, which although it was within expectations, showed some pretty good growth for Q2 2014.

Silver is showing a transition as Swap Dealers and Commercials reduce net short exposure with the former now holding a small net long position.

Large hedge funds are net short and with the metal probing lower near $17, can be expected to have upped that short position since Tuesday. Other large reportables and the general public both remain net long but both are also selling as they liquidate longs and add to new shorts.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index settled lower for the week but managed to recover from its worst levels at the close of trading Friday helped by strength in crude oil, the products and some of the softs as well as cattle which closed limit up.


One last thing for right now:

Look at this chart of the US Dollar. Is that impressive or what? This week makes ELEVEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKS of higher weekly closes. I will have to go back and survey the charts but surely this is one of the best performances that the greenback has shown in many years.

Looking at the chart one can see that the currency has clearly and decisively broken out above a congestion range trade that has been in plce for over 2 1/2 years now. All applicable Fibonacci retracement levels measured off the June 2010 high near 89 have been bested. Conventional Fibonacci analysis would portend a move all the way back to that peak. There does look to be some resistance coming in near the 86.50-87.00 zone prior to that however that would need to be overcome.



By all standards of TA, the Dollar is overbought and is due for some sort of setback; however, currency markets are one of the better trending markets once a solid trend is underway and thus are more prone to ignore overbought or oversold readings than other markets might be. This is because, generally speaking, the fundamental factors that go into establishing a currency trend are of much longer duration in forming and much less prone to undergoing rapid reversals.

For now, the Dollar is King once again!



54 comments:

  1. Thanks as always Dan for your expert analysis. Have a great weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  2. A king without a kingdom... But I guess still king

    ReplyDelete
  3. There could be a killer run up in FCX and SCCO.

    The economy is doing much better than people think, everywhere I look there is a massive construction boom. Virtually every old office building and shopping center is being rehabbed, and there are tons of new buildings going up to replace demolished old structures.

    We are in the cusp of one of the greatest economic booms ever recorded.

    After so many years of restrained growth, capital spending, and hiring, there is going to be a massive turnaround in growth the next 5 - 7 years.

    Just watch what happens in places like Ukraine, where thousands of new McDonald's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Starbucks, Chipotle, and KFC restaurants will be opening.

    Everyone overseas loves to be an American.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. "thousands of new McDonald's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Starbucks, Chipotle, and KFC restaurants will be opening."


      but...this is terrible :(. We have to teach you guys how to eat properly before it is too late... :)

      Delete
  4. The USD strength week after week surprises me too.
    You'd think a pullback would've happened by now but with the yen holding up it's part and the euro still weakening it looks like the dollar above 85 looks safe for awhile.

    We're one bad EU economic report away from the euro heading to 1.25 and dollar to 87.
    If Draghi and friends were to whisper about or start a new monetary operation like the OMT the euro will be closer to 1.20 then many of us thought possible not that long ago.

    One of the current meme's out there among the dollar haters is that the collapse of the US economy or dollar happens quickly after the dollar strengthens and looks stable.

    That makes little sense and is a far cry from what most of those same people were saying not that long ago about how the USD was going to weaken and then collapse.

    At no time was a strong dollar part of their equation nor was a deflationary environment on their radar.

    Classic bandwagon jumping from those who've fallen off a turnip truck that don't even realize they've been riding on one.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. The eur is doing from bad to worse vs the dollar, and I even re-entered the last 1/3 of my short position at 1.27 yesterday evening after getting out previously at 1.279.
      Given the continuous weakness, I prefer to keep one foot in the bearish train, even if every week my expectations of an upwards correction increase.
      Looking back a few years ago, I reallize how fast and deep the eur usd is able to fall :( and compared to that, we may very well hit 1.22 sooner than I would have expected.
      Europe is on self destruct mode with Russia.
      In terms of fundamentals, I agree with many things mr spellcheck writes on his blog.
      After the confiscation of a hotel in italy, belonging to a russian oligarch, Russia has threatened to retaliate with a law confiscating western assets.
      This is as serious as it gets betweek Europe and Russia, especially after Europe prepared for a long term conflict and escalations by stockpiling gas for this winter.
      I don't like the look of it, because they are all crazy, and it seems to be in some people's interest that a new cold war begins.
      Maybe the plan of european leaders is to blame it all on Russia when the economy crashes down soon? France is in a terrible situation. A greek scenario is more and more likely, with higher unemployment, closing companies everywhere, more taxes.... and in that context many europeans are advocating for a lower euro, a strong euro being "bad" except for Germany. How much lower do they want it?
      Therefore 1.20 doesn't seem to be an unreasonable target.

      As for gold doing better in other currencies, I'd say that it's doing just as bad as the euro for now. I'm French, so when I bought physical gold, it ws initially vs euro, not vs dollar ( I say initially because Armenia's currency and purchasing power depend more on the dollar than the russian ruble or euro :)), but at 950 euro per ounce now, I don't really see where gold protects me, though at least it is not on a strong downtrend just yet.

      Delete
  5. When FX and Rates markets have consolidated as long as they have on such low vol (Nearly a year) you need to expect when they breakout they will move much further than most expect. EURo broke the bottom of its range a few weeks ago and never looked back. This is what is happening, you just have to buy/sell the breakout in these situations, close your eyes and you will be up big in only a few weeks.
    DXY broke 85 and now has made daily and weekly closses in what is a long held range, that is giving it even more momentum no matter how overbought.

    I dont believe in the Fed hiking in the next 6months but the market does and that is all that matters. Hold until you see excess on the charts then start trading the ensuing range. We are searching for new value now people

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks, Dan--great points about the greenback. Unfortunately, in their up-is-down, black-is-white dystopia, we will now hear from TF and his Blame America First rednecks about how all this strength is really just weakness (?!?).

    I'll tell you one thing--plan your international travel now, and take advantage of it!

    ReplyDelete
  7. The way I look at it, there is nobody home on the Euro until we see $1.20. In the meantime, as we close out the last quarter of '14, one would expect the pundits, brokers/investment shysters, and letter writers to again start beating the drums about it being a "crowded trade", and "dumb money, smart money, strong hands, weak hands" and other assorted happy horseshit arguments, as they all know deep down inside that this too is a long term bear market. As the song says, "the answer my friend is blowing in the wind", and that is all from Sparks

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hats off to all the King World News Experts, as they nailed it yet again.

    "Terrifying Global Collapse"
    "Final Endgame"
    "Horrific Financial Destruction"

    All of the above has finally happened.

    In the grains, precious metals, and foreign currency sectors.

    Never before in financial market history has there been such an epic collapse in prices.

    And of course, who benefits?

    The mighty, mighty consumer, now luxuriating in a climate of falling prices, soaring stocks and 401(k) accounts, plentiful credit, and an improving economy.

    As usual the "Central Planners" did what they were supposed to do:

    - Help the consumer
    - Fatten the rich
    - Destroy the speculators betting against the planners wishes

    All of which is now happening in real time.

    I don't think I've ever recalled a time period where Central Banking has been so easy and so effortless.

    ReplyDelete
  9. And now, a revised list of our "Acclaimed Experts" and "45-year Veterans"

    Any additions or changes?

    - Eric "Crybaby" King
    - James "Belvedere" Dines
    - "General" Jim Sinclair
    - James "Bond" Rickards
    - Bill "Wild Turkey" Murphy
    - Rick "I'd Love To!" Rule
    - Paul Craig "Moonshiner" Roberts
    - Richard "The Godfather" Russell
    - Eric "The Billionaire" Sprott
    - Stephen "Squeaky" Leeb
    - David "Blue Hair" Stockman
    - Egon "Egghead" Von Greyerz
    - James "Month In, Month Out" Turk
    - Michael "Screaming" Pento
    - Peter "Smug Face" Schiff
    - John "Squealer" Embry
    - John "The Monk" Hathaway
    - Ben "Prep School" Davies
    - Andrew "Secret Agent" McGuire
    - Jim "T-Shirt" Willie
    - Doug "Don't Cry For Me" Casey
    - "Steaming Turd" Ferguson

    ReplyDelete
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    2. For your consideration:
      -Bill "The Dude" Fleckenstein
      -"Wrong" Peter Stoeferle

      Delete
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  10. 3 years ago...Remember this guy?...

    http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2014/09/alessio-rastani-two-years-on.html

    ReplyDelete
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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. if the guy had his own blog at the time of this horrid advice, he'd still be in business. instead the poor sap followed his own advice, and is likely broke now. in any case, he no longer has any presence on the internet. i have a lot more respect for this guy than any one shill, or the whole lot of them, on the list above. these bastards have enriched themselves all the while sending their faithful to the poor house.

      while i am venting, i find it most curious that Zero Hedge has no comment on the recently revived "JPM whistle blowers" fable. it is claimed that William Cohen wanted to publish the story there. but there has been nothing to see, nothing to hear, at the Hedge, save perhaps for the sound of crickets. in my opinion, the silence is damning.

      speaking of silence...

      did you find anything interesting while combing through Turd's flock, you know, their IP addresses and private messages Stephanie?

      have you and Turd made some kind of a deal Argentus? or were you unaware that your work has been copied verbatim, with no citation, on another financial blog?

      Delete
  11. Frankly, I think it's way past time that someone takes on ZeroHedge. I won't claim they did it single-handedly, but they have been, BY FAR, the biggest source of conspiracy, doomer rot on the web. Many sites, like TFMR, came directly from ZH. I think it would be MOST interesting to find out the current ownership, funding sources, etc. and think it would make for very interesting reading.

    The whole doomer industry is a maze of deceit, and the cockroaches hiding there would stand up very poorly to a even a little daylight.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Zerohedge is quick to remind everyone when something they (or someone else on the internet they piggybacked off of) got something right but you'll never hear of the hundreds of other predictions they terribly miss year after year.

      Like how the stock market was going to tank or how the USD and US are always on the verge of collapse or how gold and silver have tanked etc or any other black swans that they consistently bring up that haven't happened.

      I do however find ZH useful when scanning for any breaking market or geopolitical news headline but thats about it.
      I draw my own conclusions and generally scan a wide variety of other news-like sites.

      Also, the commentary in the articles on most topics at ZH quickly becomes a negative twist on sometimes simple data points or stories. Oftentimes they veer off on a tangent that had little to do with the main topic. They twist it into something else.
      Sensationalism sells and knowing your core audience is a must.
      If you have angry or chronically indignant gullible types on your site that are easy to bait with red (white and blue) meat it's a relatively simple task to keep them focused on whatever the outrage du jour might be at any given time.

      Regarding tfmr and the plagaristic appearance of what seems to have taken place fairly recently.
      It seems to me that a kernel or hint of whats going on can be discerned from a thread that was shut down (and edited by The Turd) that touched upon the touchy subject of..."Paid Posters On TFMR" in the "Fight Club" forum.
      The fact it touched a raw nerve over there plus the fact that Moderator Jane/Stephanie started the thread to take the subject out of the more visible/popular threads seems like an attempt at controlling the flow of conversation while also denying it.

      The FACT that she was primarily responsible for being the Gestapo over there and checking in on people's private conversations in order to gauge who was an enemy or threat to the site (and her) is beyond the pale of normal behavior in most stable adults. As far as The Turd goes, he's checked out and doesn't want to be bothered to moderate by all appearances long ago.
      There would be no one left if you tried to reign in the antagonistic loose cannons over there at this point. That opportunity came and passed long ago and they couldn't see it then or even now.

      My last post there titled "Pathetic" summed up exactly what's taken place and by whom. I literally warned everyone there about the spying and by whom BEFORE the latest private message spying debacle came to light fairly recently.
      And no one paid attention nor seem to care now that the person mainly responsible is probably continuing to do the samething on the subscriber side eventhough they'll deny it like they did 2 years ago. But it never stopped.
      I posted under the username/ sun glyph symbol ¤ if anyone's interested in viewing what I said. I won't link to it.
      But at this point it seems probable that it was editted or scrubbed entirely.
      Sometimes the truth stings but on some sites the truth is intolerable and sanitized after the fact.

      Delete
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  12. http://i62.tinypic.com/2pt1nyu.jpg

    Note the nice cycles between prices and MACD. So with MACD now still above its bouncing levels, I could expect more downtrend.
    Only, before, the Cdur was also in sync with the cycles, whereas now it is at its very low : that could mean a small upwards correction, or lateralization, before we finally head back towards 1.22
    So, 1.22 is a likely target for me for eur usd before end of 2014.
    Have a nice weekend,

    ReplyDelete
  13. DPH and Rico and others; the Bulgarian Bullshitter that runs ZH knows his audience and that is why he dumbs everything down to the most negative slant possible. It is like I always say and that is that most investors are just looking for company in their quest to lose. All you have to do is read a few comments whenever you have a minute to waste. The born losers have been stackin' from $49 on down, but of course out of the other sides of their mouths they will tell you they own the grey metal from $4. You can not polish a turd.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. It is amazing that the great run that started on silver on August 24, 2010 has been entirely given back just over 4 years later. However, I do not yet sense capitulation in the gold and silver camp. Considering this and other prevalent deflationary factors I think there is considerable downside still to go…

      Delete
    2. yo, I'm with ya Bob. The energy on that side tells you the punishment ain't over yet. Not until some of these sites shut down entirely. THEN, maybe you grab a monster box and put it away.

      No, scratch that. Paper vehicles only for me from here on out. Physical silver really blows to store in quantity, been there, done that, and the buy-sell spreads make it a no win situation. The house advantage is too huge.

      It's like the old days with the mutual funds with those 8.5% front end loads. No one in their right minds would pay that these days. The math just doesn't work for the buyer. Yet, precious metal bugs do it all the time and don't bat an eye. Amazing. Amazingly stupid. The best con is the one where the mark doesn't even realize he's been conned.

      Delete
    3. It's like the old days with the mutual funds with those 8.5% front end loads. No one in their right minds would pay that these days. The math just doesn't work for the buyer. Yet, precious metal bugs do it all the time and don't bat an eye. Amazing. Amazingly stupid. The best con is the one where the mark doesn't even realize he's been conned.

      Probably Eric, because they expect to reap gains many times what a mutual fund could offer.....when the stars align.

      Delete
  14. Once the Fed's QE tide goes out it will probably be discovered that once again there is still no economic recovery and as a result no Fed interest rate increases coming.

    Same result as with QE1 and QE2 ending, the Fed did not raise interest rates those times either as the economy was still too weak.

    Why would this time be different?

    Housing continues to bounce along the bottom of the 2008 crash levels. That alone makes one wonder how could the Fed raise interest rates soon?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Contrary to the above assertions, at a recent 4+%, GDP is doing just fine. Housing prices in my state of Colorado are at an all-time high, which actually is more worrisome to most people than the ridiculous assertion we are "bouncing along the bottom". This is just complete crap.

      Instead of endlessly repeating false tropes in hopes that people will believe the lies, it would be smarter and more productive to address the REAL reasons why this recovery feels different: the world economy has permanently changed, and this is the first real taste the unproductive part of the Western World middle-class is getting of its value (or lack of) in this new way of doing things.

      We are well and truly competing with labor, materials, and management with everyone else now--and payback is a bitch.

      Delete
    2. Perhaps google a housing starts chart before you post Rico.

      US housing starts have been bouncing along the bottom since 2008 at around 500,000 Try Google before you say lies.

      And that 4% GDP is one quarter, the first quarter was near -3% GDP, you forgot to mention that for some reason?

      Trend has been 2% GDP for years now. With no more QE and 0% rates wonder if even 2% GDP continues?

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  15. A little background...

    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

    "Zero Hedge is a batshit insane Austrian economics-based finance blog run by a pseudonymous founder who posts articles under the name "Tyler Durden," after the character from Fight Club by Chuck Palahniuk.

    Tyler claims to be a "believer in a sweeping conspiracy that casts the alumni of Goldman Sachs as a powerful cabal at the helm of U.S. policy, with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve colluding to preserve the status quo."

    While this is not an entirely unreasonable statement of the problem his solution actually mirrors the anatagonist in Fight Club in that Tyler wants, per Austrian school ideas, to lead a catastrophic market crash in order to destroy banking institutions and bring back "real" free market capitalism.

    The site posts nearly indecipherable analyses of multiple seemingly unrelated subjects to point towards a consistent theme of economic collapse any day now, and has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.
    Tyler seems to repeat The Economic Collapse Blog's idea of posting blog articles many times a day and encouraging people to post it as far and wide as humanly possible. Tyler moves away from the format of long lists to write insanely dense volumes filled with (often contradicting) jargon that makes one wonder if the writers even know what the words actually mean. The site first appeared in early 2009, meaning that (given Tyler's habit of taking a shit on each and every positive data point), anyone listening to him from the beginning missed the entire 2009-2014 rally in the equities market.
    The only writer conclusively identified is Dan Ivandjiiski, who conducts public interviews on behalf of Zero Hedge. The blog came online several days after he lost his job at Wexford Capital, a Connecticut-based hedge fund (run by a former Goldman trader). And proceeded to choose his pen name from a nihilistic psychotic delusion...(cont.)

    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

    ReplyDelete
  16. The internet as a whole is pretty incredible and sometimes you stumble across some search results that have nothing to do what you were looking for.

    Case in point....read on.

    https://clutch.co/review/drupal-implementation-online-informational-resource

    ReplyDelete
  17. one for the bears!

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-26/falling-out-of-love-with-gold

    ReplyDelete
  18. Thanks as always for the great analysis, Dan.

    ReplyDelete
  19. This market so volatile. Buyers found in every level of SP500. It could make a new high then down big. Who know what gona be. However, best time for day trading making a quick buck

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  20. Dan, I would be very interested to hear your views on John Williams at Shadowstats. He does not seem to affiliate himself to any other biased newsletter or website, remaining autonomous, and from what I can judge in my limited way, objective. If GDP is substantially negative ( which he considers to be a ridiculous statistic anyway), price inflation is romping along at 5%, unemployment at 20% - after having calculated these statistics the old way, the supposedly honest way, it would indeed be completely absurd to believe in a 'recovery.'

    You have astutely made the point before many times that it is not necessarily the reality, but the perception that counts, or what the great 18th century British philosopher George Berkeley referred to as "Esse Est Percipi". If this is correct a great deal of investment is based on BELIEF and not reality, which makes its psychological component vitally important, and this belief factor then becomes the biggest 'fundamental' of all the fundamentals.

    I can well understand why technical analysis becomes so important, because belief is also embedded in it, along with other aspects, and especially those of human behavior - and oddly enough one of those factors is belief in t/a itself, which therefore exerts its own influence. The variables are too complex to calculate if approached solely from the fundamentals point of view, and so this form of analysis has evolved.

    Nevertheless, I think most of us would agree, eventually reality will out, and if in fact the economy is not recovering, but actually declining, like an Indian guru who has hypnotized his audience into BELIEVING that he is levitating, both will eventually come down to earth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well Peter, you don't stay elected when you report bad economic numbers.

      So why not change the way the economic numbers are calculated until they show better economic numbers than they otherwise would using the old ways of calculating?

      Delete
    2. Barney, please, don't insult my intelligence, that's called the free market at work!

      Delete
    3. Funny! Yup free to change the way the numbers are calculated.

      Delete
    4. In Orwell's 1984 we had the Ministry of Truth, which was responsible for falsifying information about the past putting out the opposite of the truth using 'doublethink, and rewriting history to suit the regime. No wonder this book - and also Animal Farm - were banned in so many countries.

      Delete
    5. “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

      So said Goebbels in his diaries, and instead of force the government now uses misinformation with the cooperation of the compliant media to distort the truth. However, for the first time we now have a tool to counter this to some extent, which is the Internet.

      In Orwellian terms and also those of Goebbels, the distorted truth is that the markets are free, when they are only partially free, being constantly interfered with by Government and the Fed in a variety of ways. Most people do not see this, or do not want to see it, and are encouraged to refer to people pointing it out as conspiracy theorists, crack brains, and weirdos.

      DOUBLETHINK as practised in the Ministry of Truth in 1984, is the ability to turn black into white, corrupting the meanings of words, and repeating the lie endlessly in multifarious ways until it becomes accepted as the truth.

      Sheep brains, who have some extraordinary faculty in their mental make-up to suspend reason, logic, and overwhelming evidence, will now stand up and defend this new truth no matter what. In this way power and control are maintained in the hands of a few.

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    6. Having said all this, as investors and traders we do not need to go out on some Messianic mission to destroy ourselves, but simply to recognize it as a brutal fact, and try to use it to our advantage. If the Fed Put is there to support and levitate the market in defiance of gravity, go with it; or iff gold is being manipulated then cash in and short it for easy money. We do not need to buy gold and silver, like KWN is exhorting us to do in a Kamikaze mission of self-annihilation!

      The forces against gold are now so great manipulation probably isn't necessary, having already been used very satisfactorily last year. The negative momentum has been established and we are trundling downwards like a Juggernaut, so jump on board, and as they say, don't fight the Fed.

      Delete
  21. Pease explain how the economy is "declining", using your own analysis, and facts that can objectively be checked for accuracy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1 TRILLION $ more debt in one single year?
      Trade deficit without shale boom: widening (re-industrialization?).
      The state terrorist in the White House desperately trying to create a big war?

      Delete
  22. Just a couple of observations......the $RUT ( russell 2000 small cap ) looks a lot like a breakdown is coming. Also the XLY, which Mark loves would have made you one dollar if bought at 66 in Dec. 2013.

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    1. Not that Mark needs any defense, but:
      If your mean Dec. 31 2013 (any other date would be a worse return)
      Gold closed at 1204.8 so you would have made 16/205=1.3%
      XLY up a buck 1/66 = 1.5% +1.2% yield--so that's double gold's return.
      Silver is down over 9% from same period (19.4->17.6)

      I agree that the $RUT is not pretty and MACD doesn't look good (neither on the $SPX). I would guess that funds are going to keep moving into the fortress stocks of the $INDU (as we have seen). That could be interesting because it would mean pushing up the valuations of companies that derive a huge portion of revenue from EMEA (GE nearly 30%, KO 40%, PM 65%, MCD 40%), etc while the dollar surges AND Europe stagnates and Russia is counter-sanctioning (ex-XOM) and the Mideast hates us for our freedom (for the moment) . Just a thought.

      Delete
    2. Funds? Or central banks?
      How can the RUT be at multi year lows against the SPY, if the economy in breadth was improving?

      Your freedom? Do you mean the NSA listening to all your communication, and the personality profiles of every US citizen?
      Hate you for your freedom? And I thought because your country has been terrorizing the islamic world for more than 20 years and attacking other countries against international law?
      Incredible, how much do they pay you for this insane BS? I don't believe you can be that stupid to believe that yourself.

      Delete
  23. Consumer confidence just came in at a 14 month high. New single family home sales are doing great. Not really the marks of the crappy economy the doomsayers would have us all believe.

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    1. Eric- See my reply to KJM above--I agree the US is not in a doomsday scenario (on the other hand-consumer confidence is a lagging indicator, Oil price is not terribly reassuring either, + anecdotally I know of a few companies that are having trouble meeting sales quotas for consumer oriented svc. providers (B to B services as we used to say). But I would guess the ROW is going to put pressure on earnings this quarter given the strength of the dollar and slowdown in Europe and Russia tatting our tit.

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  24. the economy is not performing anywhere near well. i am not sure if it is declining yet, or improving, extremely slowly. it does not matter. the point should be that gold and silver did not do what the "doomers" predicted.

    of course statistics can be found to support the "green shoots", or whatever the latest meme is, but i do not know anyone who is being intellectually honest that can claim that things are really getting much better for the bottom 99% or so in the USA. and call me cynical, but this unbridled optimism seems to be building as the fall elections approach.

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  25. Why SHOULD things be expected to get better for the part of the population that does not have the skills to compete? The Obama administration has done everything humanly possible to DISCOURAGE work: endless unemployment payouts, a catastrophic policy where people are actually encouraged to go on permanent disability, etc. What part of these policies do you not understand?

    There's no magic to success--you have to WORK for it. The world doesn't owe one a job, one has to provide value to the employer. The armies of the ignorant, belligerent, and entitled in the U.S. are SOL until they figure out the whole value equation. We are competing with enormous numbers of people worldwide who just can't freaking wait to out-work, out-think, and out-save us. As I said above, there is ZERO mystery why "the economy" is "not improving" for "the 99%".

    ReplyDelete
  26. Rico, you previously asked what analysis I had to show that the economy is declining. Maybe you answered the question yourself, and I can use your own analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  27. i wish the world really was so simple Rico!

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  28. You guys crack me up. You pile on KWN, gold bugs, and the dollar haters. Fair enough. You act like there is a real recovery. The bond market is rigged long and short and central banks are buying trillions in equities. News flash. This is being done to support an economic paradigm that is failing. Is the recovery even real? Truly that's open to debate. Finally, whenever I hear some trader talk about using Fibonacci numbers I know the the amateur hour is on TV. Enjoy your dollar uptrend and I hope you all feel real good about yourselves. "Who laughs last laughs best".

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