"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Incredibly - Corn Conditions Improve; So do Beans

I have been trading grains for a long, long time and I am having to really search what is left of my memory to recall seeing the corn crop in such a dramatically fine condition this late in the season. I am sure there were years but truth be told, it is the bad years we remember more so than the outstanding years.

USDA gave us the numbers for the past week and they are outstanding. 93% of the nation's corn crop is in fair to excellent condition. The Good/Excellent condition category actually ticked up 1%. The breakdown is as follows:

CURRENT                                PREVIOUS WEEK         LAST YEAR

Excellent:   22%                         21%                           14%
Good      :  52%                          52%                          42%
Fair        :   19%                         20%                          28%

As I have said here previously, as we move closer to harvest, the general appearance of the corn plant tends to show some deterioration as the plant's energy is being directed into the ear. That can lead to some slight drop in the overall condition of the plant as far as its general appearance is concerned. Thus far that is not even showing up.

90% of the crop is in the Dough stage compared to 82% a year ago and the 5-year average of 89%.

The only concern might be the Dent stage is showing 35% compared to 39% a year ago and the 5-year average of 59%. That is certainly behind. My view on this is that the perfect growing weather ( warmth and continued moisture) is slowing down the maturation process of the ear. In dry years, maturity tends to move ahead for the ear but at the expense of filling. You get an ear that matures quicker but one whose kernels are smaller and weigh less. What this lagging dent tells me is that we are going to have some pretty hefty weights and large kernels. That should increase the overall size of the harvest when it finally does commence. Any of you agronomists out there who read the site might want to chime in on that if I have missed anything.

Hopefully, we will not get any hard, early killing frost as we wait for the crop to finish up.

On the soybean front, bulls were talking up excessive rains in some areas today as a reason to buy beans. SDS chatter was also making the rounds ( waterlogged fields can be conducive to SDS). However, the overall condition of the soybean crop actually improved last week. An astonishing 94% of the crop is rated Fair to Excellent.

Here are how things stand.

CURRENT WEEK                    PREVIOUS WEEK          LAST YEAR

Excellent:    18%                      18%                         11%
Good:          54%                      52%                         43%
Fair:            22%                      23%                         31%

Those rains last week, especially in the drier areas, made a marked improvement in the overall crop condition rating.

95% of the crop is in the pod setting stage versus 91% last year at this time and the 5-year average of 95%. The Southern states are showing leaf dropping ahead of last year at this time and the 5-year average, with the exception of Mississippi, which is well ahead of last year but lagging the 5 year average somewhat.

It is hard to see anything bullish in these reports. At this stage of the growing season, warmth is needed to finish things up. Farmers are now watching the weather and hoping that Mother Nature does not surprise with any early hard freeze as this year's crop growing season winds down. It seems to me that the frost angle is about all that the bulls have left at this stage.


  1. Horrific collapse and terrifying events continue to unfold in the commodity sector.

    Never seen such mass destruction before in any sector, period.

    Serious fireworks. To the downside.

    Poor Stephen Leeb still squealing like a stuck pig: "Any minute now, I swear!"

    Anybody wonder why retail and consumer discretionary stocks are so strong?

    1. "Anybody wonder why retail and consumer discretionary stocks are so strong?"

      Considering that sales and consumer spending are down, yes, I'd like to know.

  2. soybeans harvest delayed in the south one stated reason for today, plus the usual old crop story led by soymeal (there isn't any & it's currently wildly profitable for processors).

    yeah that crop report tonite was about tied for best in history in both beans-corn.

    a sell seasonal today in corn as well from mrci:

    FC Stone private forecast out today after close another bearish factor beans-corn, allendale forecast due in the morning!

    The aussie nice reversal off the 50-day MA touch last thursday! of course everybody wants lower currencies the RBA governor trying to get the AUD even lower tonite:
    “the exchange rate, on the other hand, remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices. It is offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy.”

    the GBP/USD was down the exact same as EUR/USD last week about -1.88% each.

    cheerio pip pip!


  3. Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation Completes Heap Leach Pad Construction

    Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation is pleased to announce the completion of its heap leach pad construction at its Buckreef Re-development Gold Project, located in the Lake Victoria Goldfields of Tanzania. Construction began in April 2014 and was overseen by civil contractor Yale-Constech Company Limited.

    Four heap leach cells with dimensions of 100 metres by 30 metres each are now complete. This will support the processing of stacked ore delivered from the Buckreef South Pit. The Company has also completed a significant portion of the Buckreef South Pit preparation, including grade control drilling, maps and roads.

    "Completing construction of the four heap leach cells and preparing the Buckreef South Pit for ore extraction were two of the major objectives in our march to production," stated James E. Sinclair, President and CEO of TRX. "Our team managed these projects on plan and our suppliers delivered with the utmost professionalism and safety."

    The heap leach project is subject to environmental regulation by the National Environmental Management Council (NEMC) and the pads were engineered to exceed the standards established in The Water Resource Management Act No. 11, 2009. A three-layer barrier structure permanently contains all fluids within the boundaries of the heap and connects the leaching field to the process ponds. From the bottom up, the three layers consist of a one-foot layer of compacted clay base, a 1.5 mm non-porous Bentomat high-density polyethylene liner, and 19 mm of gravel material primarily as a buffer to prevent the liner from contacting ore.

    While the complete leach cycle is estimated at a minimum of 60 days, the majority of the metal should be recovered in less than 45 days. The Company anticipates that a sufficient quantity will have accumulated to begin the carbon elution process after about 30 days of irrigation.

    "We remain on track for our first pour," stated Mr. Sinclair. "We are looking forward to commissioning the new carbon-in-leach and crushing equipment and hiring the remaining processing staff, raising our employment to over 100 people. We are rapidly becoming Tanzania's newest gold miner and producer."

    Qualified Person

    The qualified person for Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation is Mr. Phillip Kaniki, General Manager, Exploration and Administration. Mr. Kaniki is registered as a Chartered Professional Member of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy MAusIMM CP (Geo) (Reg. No 221963/07) and has reviewed and approved the contents of this news release.

    Respectfully submitted,
    James E. Sinclair
    President and CEO

    1. " "We are looking forward to commissioning the new carbon-in-leach and crushing equipment and hiring the remaining processing staff, raising our employment to over 100 people. We are rapidly becoming Tanzania's newest gold miner and producer.""

      That will cost tens of millions, even hundreds of millions according to the 43-101 report, which TRX does not have. TRX has 2 million cash and burns through 2 million dollar per quarter without exploration.

      I look forward to Jim delivering what he promises if he ever will - but not in this decade.

    2. This was the post I was expecting to give me a pop to close this underwater trade. No luck there. Getting out.

    3. Mike , in my opinion you need to buy TRX when is really being hated , I think it will loose the 2 handle , there is when you get in , same goes for MUX , LSG , etc ... everyone is waiting for a pop in gold after friday on the back on the NATO meeting . In my opinion the Ukraine issue is old news , the west can not do much more than it has done already . Putin has won this hand .
      He is untouchable at the moment . Gold needs to find new friends , other ways I see it going lower , new lows ? who knows ... but I have a feeling that we will be able to buy these miners cheaper , hopefully ! TRX will do well , you will see

    4. Anon
      Some time in the far future when gold gets popular again maybe. I would like to see TRX do well for the sake of the stockholders.

      In my case I have decided I can do better with the capital now than I can waiting for years and seeing it's existing capitalization frittered away.

      When gold fell off its peak the right business decision would have been to mothball the business and presence capital.

      Grandly going forward into the face of disaster is not making it in this business.

      The investment would make so much more sense if gold was breaking $1500 on the up slope. Now we are testin $1270 andaybe going to break the $1150 bottoms.

      Short of disaster I don't see how this business and many others in similar straits can survive.

      Best of luck with your plays. We need a real blow out bottom to justify buying junior miners. JMHO.

  4. So Good Afternoon Hubert, and where are you at on the S&P?

    1. Hi Steve,
      Just landed in Paris.
      I posted my positions in the previous line.

  5. On Tuesday night's "nightly hotline", Jay Gallemore mentioned that he believes USD will be back to 1.20 in a few years (last time there was 12 years ago).

    ChartingYourFutures dot com

  6. Why is TRX building a leach pad when there is no gold in the ground? Or even if there was, it could be taken away from them at any minute by the government?

    1. Production optics, to justify milking the market, facilitate the coming bought deal, placate shareholders and justify outragous management compensation.

    2. Believe there is gold in the ground but not economical investment at these prices.

  7. New highs again today for Tesla and Facebook.

    No bear market can start until these high fliers start cracking and breaking down.

    ES futures at new lifetime highs, which means:


  8. Hey, it's been a long time (at least 15 min) since anybody ridiculed kwn and js and cheered the rising stock market. What's going on guys?

    1. Maybe we should program our own bot Shitta Vehrmacht to do so.

  9. Soren, it is Groundhog Day over there and very tired and old

  10. Today's drop in CORN hit my limit. I am out of the trade. Steve Brassey was right.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.