"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Gold Bounces on Syrian Air Strike News

Looks like the news of air attacks in portions of ISIS-controlled Syria has been enough to spook some of the shorts in gold. After a ferocious wave of short-covering, gold has given back most of its gains for now.

After a near relentless decline, it was perhaps to be expected that any sort of news which might generate some safe-haven buying would run some shorts out of the market.

However, in watching the price action at this point, it does seem that any rallies are going to be viewed as selling opportunities.

Geopolitical events are always good ( generally speaking ) for bounces in gold but tend to flame out as quickly as they begin. We'll watch for now but even the Dollar is barely moving lower. Traders ( except those with the most shortest time frame ) are looking past the current geopolitical concerns and focused almost exclusively on the strong Dollar and interest rate differential advantage it possesses.

More Later.....


  1. It going to take more than a few air strikes to change the direction of the gold and silver markets. Could be this way for several years.

    1. If the reserve currency bond bull market continues and interest rates stay zero for a considerable time, then inevitably the gold market will get inflows of hot value money which will attract some momentum money. Just like Blackberry stock or Greek banks. Even the worst of the trash doesn't stay down for long in this environment.

      And if the Fed starts raising interest rates with the thought that they are ahead of the curve, the massive trade of front running the Fed in, will be front running the Fed out. This will tick up velocity which will tick up price inflation. Which will show the world that the Fed is behind the curve and we get 70's all over again as high velocity leads to higher velocity and higher inflation.

    2. M, if you are right, then gold will soon be able to break above its long term downwards channel in red on my weekly time unit.
      The resistance is now even below the 1300 $ level.
      As a long term investor, I would gladly buy gold a little higher in exchange of being provided such confirmation that gold was able to free itself from this bearish channel (which it recently tested and failed to do).
      Anyhow, decisions are individual. I can only share my point of view and tell you what I am indeed personally doing. I won't tell people that they should do the same. Suit yourself.

    3. For a trade in the mining stocks though, you are stuck buying around here IMO. A stock like Pretium hasn't traded below the $6 handle since January.

    4. It was above 17 back in 2012. What's the hurry? Wait and see if it goes down further. JMHO

    5. This latest selloff in gold hasn't been able to kick down the bellwether gold stocks to new lows. New Gold isn't budging either.

      Logically this could be because oil has been selling off but markets don't usually trade on logic.

      Plus the market in general is bidding up good stories again. Balmoral had some good news in April and went from .66 to 1.92

      Green shoots man heh

  2. Agreed.

    I'm not here to suggest nor advise, I'm not in a position to patronize anyone about how to handle their portfolio, or when to buy / sell.
    But here is an observation I've made on my weekly time unit chart for gold.

    Compare the evolution of the price of gold with the Cdur indicator below (the largest line, related to monthly time unit).
    When the large line goes down, turning to red, gold at best lateralizes, and at worst plunges.
    When the large line goes up, turning to red, gold at worst lateralizes, and at best goes up.
    Watch where the large line is now.
    Watch which color it is about to turn.

    This is all about probabilities, not certainties.
    But, given my current parameters, I remain bearish on gold and would advise those who try to buy in the dips to be extra careful and not to forget a stop loss. Noone knows where gold will bottom. Especially, as long as gold is within the red downwards channel, what's the bloody hurry to accumulate?


  3. "What's the bloody hurry"
    Exactly right. My emotions make me want to grab it before the price goes up (greed) but cold eyed analysis says watch the chart as it goes down and wait for better prices and an actual turn around.

  4. The Euro is the major component of USD Index.
    Euro weakness leads most often to USD Index strength, i.e gold weakness in a dollar terms.
    Here is a chart of EUR USD on my 2 week time scale.
    Look at the MACD.
    Look at what happened the 3 times before, when the MACD hit and bounced on its propagation axis.
    Do you think it is unimportant to monitor what the MACD is going to do this time before you decide to go all in buying gold?
    what if MACD breaks through the line this time?
    Make your own conclusions.
    I don't want to be the one making you miss the bottom if that's your gut conviction.
    Just sayin', maybe it's worth waiting a bit longer... no matter what Turk and other "buy now!" pundits write.


    1. of course, I maybe wrong. I'm only sharing here, so let it be your decision.

  5. Thanks Dan.
    I just checked the USDX and the crude oil charts and expected to see a bit more turbulance.

    I think the market is waiting to see if a series of escalating events (ISIS retaliation abroad or Russia making some loud noises in Ukraine or elsewhere shortly etc.) happens in response to last nights Syrian bombing.

    We're watching a moment of historical significance just starting to unfold that I believe is going to be seen in the future for what it is and has been for well over a decade....the repartitoning of the Middle East.

    Syria and Assad has an inevitable expiration date that will be stamped upon them during this new US/Arab ally campaign.
    A weak or overthrown Syria (by bombardment) means that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Russia or China are weaker as a consequence of Syria and Assad being neutered.

    You could see this coming a mile away when Russia evacuated their embassy and citizens and their military personnel from Tartus months ago.

    The US and friends get Syria and Russia gets part of the Ukraine. It's all about energy pipelines and potential new growth markets.

    Hopefully it stops with Syria and Ukraine and everyone (energy producing countries) is happy (except for the people of those regions) and they stop the mayhem.

    My concern is that this is just one more phase of whats starting to look like a perpetual modern day idealogical/religious crusade that includes energy as part of the equation.

    My guess would be that Russia makes some type of response fairly soon elsewhere. Tit-for-tat.

    1. "A weak or overthrown Syria (by bombardment) means that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Russia or China are weaker as a consequence of Syria and Assad being neutered."

      This is not a game of chess.
      - 3 million syrian refugees
      - 6 million syrian moved inside Syria from one place to another...
      Total : 9 million people.

      I don't think Russia will abandon Assad anyway.
      We still don't know what we do. How many times will we be forgiven?

    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    3. It isn't a game of chess to yourself or myself but it might be to those in power who are insulated from the common persons point of view.

      My outlooks on these matters hopefully isn't construed as my tacit appproval of events one way or another but instead how those in power might see it or use massive force to obtain even more power and influence.

      I think Assad is is going the path of Gadaffi or Saddam Hussein or Mubarek maybe and he eventually flee's Syria with his family if he's fortunate.

      Tartus was vacated months ago for a reason (Ukraine miltary forces consolidation) and the Russian supplied sophisticated missile defense systems in Syria aren't targeting US/ French/Arab fighter jets or ships.
      Not yet at least.

      I totally agree with you on the amount of human misery that those in that region have experienced. It's sad.

      But history is rife with similar and more brutal (if that's even possible) examples of warfare and none of those thus far has served as a lesson to any of the great powers of the past, present or future to avoid it.

      True, this isn't chess, but that doesn't stop the common person from being a helpless spectator and a a sacrificial pawn if need be. :-(

  6. "This is not a game of chess." tell that to the sociopaths running things.

    hope you don't leave PCB and Lan.

    showing some emotion is understandable.

    peace and patience to the diverse and brilliant minds that gather here.

  7. New-crop cash corn bids across the Midwest range from $2.08 to $3.91 per bushel. Average is $2.86.

    Midwest new-crop soybean bids range from $7.83 in NW to $9.88 per bushel. Average is $8.77

    comex silver stocks 183,144,515.300-- a number that probably hasn't been seen since 1995. there's nothing to be done with all the 'sludge' coming out of the copper mines. SLV had another deposit, well that's been happening for a few weeks and just isn't a sign of capitulation.

    diwali in india is a new moon away in oct., and interestingly the gold price (due to the rupee) is lowest since 2011. there is a big push now in india to get the people into bank cd's and stocks, rather than the money losing metals.

    Lean hogs remain soft until November-


  8. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_World_News

    Um, update please?

    King World News is a web portal that produces radio-like interviews and information about financial topics, with particular attention given to the precious metals markets. Created by financial writer Eric King, every week the site produces interviews with individuals in the industry, including a “weekly metals wrap” with returning guests Bill Haynes and DAN NORCINI.

  9. OMG! Totally forgot about this!!!!


    1. Bob;

      Thanks for reminding me of days gone by! :o)

      Once upon a time, I actually liked these guys. Once they got off into the weeds with their constant gold perma bull nonsense, I had to take my leave of them.

      I was once dearly beloved by all the gold bulls, as long as I was bullish and noted the gold capping routine. That was back when gold was in a bull market and the Dollar was cratering. Once the charts change, one has to change with them or lose big sums of money. Sadly many never made the adjustment and are now paying the price.

      By the way, I wonder if they ever did anything with Bill Haynes over there? My guess is that once he stopped sponsoring the Metals Wrap, there was no more money in it for Eric.

    2. http://www.gata.org/node/8984

      Glad you got away from the cultists Dan. A pro never gets emotional to that in which he Trades. I take it you are no longer affiliated with GATA as well?

    3. Bob;

      Not any more I am not although I really like Bill over there. He is a lot of fun.

      I just wish they could understand that every move lower in gold is not due to price manipulation by the bullion banks. GATA has some good stuff about the central banks and their view of gold and that should be understood by anyone who trades it but they also need to understand that when the Dollar is rallying and the price of commodities in general is sinking, along with inflation expectations, it is NOT bullion banks that are doing the selling.

      That is what discredits them in my mind - once they start blaming every move lower in gold on "evil bullion banks" they lose me ( and other more seasoned traders as well I might add).

    4. Long time I didn't hear your voice indeed! :)
      Funny, I went immediately to minute 6:00, just like that, and I heard you speak for one minute. I don't know what you were saying before but that one minute is essential right now as it was right then.

    5. As sometimes a harsh critic of Dan this was one of his best interviews.

    6. rhaaa....thanks endzeit, now you force me to listen to it all... :( ...

  10. @JamesGRickards: As #gold hit $1208 one of the world's largest hedge fund managers told me "it looks like a bottom." We'll see. Definitely a good entry point

    Yea Jim. You said the same when gold was at 1530 and broked down.

    1. Consultant, book writer. Nothing here, move along.

    2. Just be careful when betting against people who get laughed at on CNBC.

      And snakeoil salesman selling the most marketable good in the world is kind of oxymoronic.

    3. Loren...to be fair you should balance your criticisms with some of the calls they got right. Nobody is correct all the time. You could probably find some calls that Dan got wrong if you looked hard enough.

    4. Touche kjn. Why it was just last year if I recall, that someone predicted that Abenomics would take gold and silver to ridiculous heights in relatively short order. Unfortunately all these modern day Nostradamus' do caveat the hell out of every prediction they make or sound like good old fashioned two handed economists, which is to say they make no prognostication at all that they can be reasonably held accountable for. If it sounds like BS and it smells like BS......

    5. "And snakeoil salesman selling the most marketable good in the world is kind of oxymoronic"

      Im not sure books are that marketable.

    6. @ Jasper

      But gold is the most marketable good in the world and the prevailing criticism here is that the Austrians (the ppl who don't believe that there is some black magic in money printing) are always saying to buy gold. Who are then , being called snakeoil salesmen.

  11. Dan, I would like to get your thoughts on this. If one wants to look at a possible reason of why silver is down so much more than other commodities, for example copper, then one could look at this exchange which occurred on 2/29/12.
    Was the "seed idea" of people using silver as a store of value not to be allowed to grow? With all the silver market excitement and all the buzz on the net, like "buy an ounce of silver and crush JPM" going on at that time, etc. etc. Looking back at the chart of silver since and the market sentiment since then, was this the answer Ron Paul's got to his question about a parallel currency choice?

  12. option expiration Friday , open interest at all time high , if you bear , keep an open mind

    1. Doesn't gold usually get smashed pretty hard right before expiration?

  13. Last week, Kitco and CNBC contributor Rich Ilczyszyn predicted that gold would revisit 1180 if we had a weekly close below 1220.

    Will he be proven right? Doesn't matter much to him, as he passed away Saturday, at the age of 46.

    A reminder to us all that there are more important things in the world than money and market gyrations...

  14. SILVER
    Daily time unit.


    Going through the red median created an acceleration. It often happens when the MACD doesn't cross but reverses down (strong bearish signal).
    It sent prices towards the anticipated black line (symetry of the previous downwards channel, translated down).

    The serious resistance seems to me now to be 18.60, the previous support area, where we can also find the ema15, ma20 heading down, median of the pitchfork, and of course top of the big red marubozu.
    18.60 is the real test for bulls, and anything under this level only confirms we are not in a bullish phase, hardly in a temporary "neutral" trend if we don't make immediately new lows.

    1. P.S : the situation is tricky for both bulls and bears imho. Because eur usd may bounce from here towards 1.32, because we had so many consecutive lows already on the weekly time unit on sompe PMs, etc...there is a very real possibility of bouncing up towards 1240 gold / 18.50 silver for starters. If gold breaks above its ma20, then there is a possibility to reach back 1280 on my charts, along with Eur Usd towards 1.32 in the short term.
      In the current environment my speculative short-term short positions I took around 1240 and 18.40 are under risk, and of course, stop loss is here extremely close to avoid any loss. I'd welcome a retest of 1240 and 18.50 soon, in order to see what happens there.

    2. Hubert, in your opinion what is more likely that we see gold 1250 first or we see 1200 first?

    3. dfly, unfortunately I have no idea.
      On the faster time units, I don't have the free prorealtime platform to check my various indicators. I only rely on my CFD platform, which is not as good, and gives me a few things such as MACD, etc... at the moment on the 4h and 1h time units, MACD crossed positive, so it depends on what prices do during this period.
      My theoretical target down is 1190 at the moment, but as I mentioned, I have no idea where we go from there.
      I made my decision to get in the market short at higher prices, because of the possibility to put a stop loss nearby, based on moving averages close enough and heading down. If I had to make a decision right now, it would probably be to stay out of the market, because I wouldn't be able to find a support or a resistance near 1220.

  15. No pulse.
    No bounce.
    I'm starting to get impressed by the weakess of some of those markets.
    Look at EUR USD.


    My target for now is 1.2730 i.e next fibonacci level, but we are already at the red support (1.2790 this week), which hardly seems to be able to slow prices down.
    We are heading down at the same pace as few years ago.
    Back then, the move managed to generate a few corrections up towards the top of the channel. Let's see what happens this time.
    As long as Eur Usd falls as a falling knife, I don't see how to hope for a sustained rallye in gold or silver in dollar terms.

    1. Just a techy question and I am not being facetious. Is the Hindenberg Oman completely discredited now ? I think the DOW and S&P have done the HO about 4 times in the last 5 years now.

  16. Boom! I'm out of my remaining short position on EUR USD at 1.2790.
    Totally out now. Waiting for a possible bounce...or not :(
    We are probably headed towards 1.2730 anyway (fibo)...and then longer term it gets really nasty with a possible target near 1.20... good luck with gold.

    1. focus now on stock indexes and bond. Oil, gold, gas, copper and forex all sideway by now

  17. If you threw a dart in the air where ever it landed an oil well would gush. If you put all the money managers in the world together they couldnt top your trading.

    1. arnie...not at all, please, it's completely not true.

  18. http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gpro&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    This stock has been tearing it up. Approaching $10B mkt cap. Short opportunity? Earnings Nov 3.

  19. I'd wait until it loses momentum. Short float is already 30%, so a lot of shorts have already gotten burned. Show fundamentals don't matter. But if you were to look at fundamentals for sport: Gross margin has declined from 52% to under 40% in 2 years. EBITDA % has gone from 17 to 11%.

  20. California Agriculture.
    Sacramento Delta.
    Where water flows food grows. Where it doesn't, not so much.

    1. Mike, do you have any idea how the drought is affecting Kern water bank & Roll International/Pom Wonderful's ag holdings?

      In my mind, how short sighted to switch cotton growing land that can go fallow in droughts with fruit trees that can't have the spigot turned off.

    2. There has been zero rain and with the state water project not making deliveries to agriculture it can't be good but no specifics. There does seem to be come controversy over the water banks existence. All bets are up in the air with last weeks enactment of state ground water controls. There is fear that water banks will be raided to build more voters houses.

      Don't know the two companies you mention.

      Did note in a previous post that more trees were going in over the winter and hopes they had secure water. With cheap cotton available from the ROW don't think it's a viable crop any more. Have seen none in the fields this year.

  21. Thanks. Companies are owned by the Resnicks…biggest citrus, pomegranate, almond, and pistachio growers in the U.S. 188 Sq. miles according to article or 120K acres in Kern county.



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