"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

EuroZone Inflation Data Hammers the Euro

WOW! The Euro is getting obliterated on the foreign exchange markets this morning as news of an horrendous reading (for the ECB) on the inflation front sent shock waves through the markets. Consumer price inflation came in at 0.3% for the month of September, the slowest rate since October 2009!

That immediately fueled further speculation that the ECB is going to be forced to implement some sort of QE over there in order to try to force a turnaround in the lackluster economy.

With a meeting of the ECB later this week, traders are paying even more close attention to what will come out of it in regards to potential moves by the Central Bank.

The currency has fallen through one level of chart support after another and as of yet still shows no sign of bottoming. Today's session low is right smack dab in the support zone noted. If that does not stem the bleeding, I do not see anything on the chart until below 1.2400.

With the Euro getting steamrolled and falling below support near 1.2650 and even psychological support at round number 1.2600, the US Dollar is soaring higher. As it moves higher, the commodity complex is also getting hammered.

Crude oil in particular is reeling as it is currently down more than $3.00/bbl as I type these comments. The low is near $91 thus far. There is some chart support just below the market near the zone from $90.60-$90.40, which if that fails to hold this market, is the last support zone I see on the crude chart until closer to the $87.50 level.

Silver has completely fallen out of bed as it is down more than 3% at this time and has lost psychological chart support near $17.00. It is trying to stabilize there but copper is threatening the $3.00 level and if it goes, so too will silver.

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Complex is imploding with the index currently down over 2% and notching a brand new, fresh 27 month low. Even cattle are seeing selling pressure today which is something considering the strength in that complex.

The strong dollar simply makes US exports that much more expensive on the global market and that fact tends to undercut buying. The Dollar is working its way steadily towards the next zone of resistance on the chart ( 86.50 - 87.00).

The Brazilian Real is also continuing to fall against the Dollar making US soybeans less competitive with Brazilian-origin beans as well. Again, most grain traders that I have known over the years haven't a clue about currency exchange ranges and tend to be myopically focused on the US domestic market to the exclusion of the impact of currency exchange rates on export business.

With today being the actual end of the quarter and the end of the month, these large moves in the markets may also be partially attributed to book squaring and evening of positions. The start of the new month will be very interesting to see how fund managers intend to position themselves as they put money back to work.

Here is a chart of the GSCI:

The HUI has completely surrendered all of its gains for 2014 and is now trading well below the ending level made on December 2013.

Here is the most recent TIPs spread chart overlaid with the gold price. Notice how the two seem to be moving in perfect harmony. The market is simply not the least bit worried about any inflation at this point.

One last chart for right now... it is the big gold ETF, GLD, which reported holdings that once more dropped. Total holdings are now at 772.25 tons, having now dropped to a level last seen in early December of 2008. All that gold that was bought based on the experiment we now call Quantitative Easing has been sold and the money put to work elsewhere. Simply put, Western-origin gold investment demand stinks to high heaven. Just remember that whenever some huckster out there regales you with wild, baseless and unverifiable claims of "massive gold buying".

Sure someone is buying the gold that is being sold but that is true in any market, even as it falls in price because there must always be a buyer when there is a seller. The point to remember however is that if there are more sellers willing to sell at a lower price than there are buyers willing to buy at a high price, the price is going to go down. Period!

A last written item - in watching the Japanese Yen trade in the midst of this carnage this morning, I am noting some firmness in that currency, as well as in the bond market, telling us that there is some safe haven buying occurring against this backdrop. It does appear that is what is keeping gold supported about the $1200 level for now even as the gold mining shares evaporate in price.


  1. Going back a few years I never thought we'd see a 16-handle in silver or 1200/gold anytime soon.

    I'd be a little surprised if we didn't break $1180 in gold given what we're witnessing in the commodities and the strong USD.

    Not that it's related but I wonder what the FX markets might do if some brutal put down of the protestors in Hong Kong occurs. Does the USD surge further?

    Hopefully that crackdown doesn't happen but it seems as though China will "tamp down" the HK unrest so that no one else in China gets any ideas to try the same thing elsewhere.
    Pivotal moment for China here.
    The daily HK protests seem to be getting growing larger.

    Thanks again for the write up.

  2. eur/usd losing that 1.2662 low from 2012.. had some stop sells below that looking for much lower targets... let's say a buy stop above the 1.27 round number at 1.2707 on those fresh sell trades!

    it's going to be very interesting if today's close gets unwound in the new quarter, or can the trends accelerate i.e. as the fresh shorts in the euro are playing for.

    Ags are glad to get the quarter closed. the soybeans sell off could have been window dressing.
    On-farm corn stocks surge relative to previous year in northwestern Midwest; thanks to rail logistics problems; reason for poor basis.

    yeah dec livestock profit takers, or were they dip buyers in ags and got margin calls haha: HE held 50-day but LE got below 9/10 peak.

    non-farm payroll friday, it's probably a good time to be in buh buh buh Bonds!
    ..we're going to have to lower rates to get the DX down is what the commentaries will say hey hey!

    cheerio pip pip!

    1. agreed about Eur Usd, 77.
      3 more days before the close of the 2week candle I'm following, and with such volatility, closing above 1.2730 eventually is perfectly possible, just as closing under 1.25.

  3. Alan Greenspan has recently stated that China will increase gold buying massively to exceed US holdings of $8000 tons. Do we think Sir Alan has lost his marbles? Swiss referendum comes up in 2 months to determine whether Switzerland is obliged by law to increase its holdings by 1500 tons. Commercials have established huge short position in US dollar. Indian and Chinese buying of gold in best time of the year. What will all these factors do to the price? Aspects to consider before throwing the baby out with the bath water.

    1. that is not what he said. the article is bullish for gold, but apparently not enough for you.

      yet the gold bugs wonder why their credibility is in the toilet.


    2. this is the guy...


      not that i think it matters.

    3. Peckerwood and Peter; I think the old saying is, "those who can, do; those who can not, teach, and those who can not, consult." Easy Al and his Townsend-Greenspan company failed miserably because he ignored the real world and the markets in his never ending pandering to power with his kneepads firmly secured. Why he even gets the 4th estate's ear is a total mystery to me, as he is not even capable of being Paul Volcker's pool boy. That is all.

    4. Steve, Greenspan gets the 4th estate's ear because he's married to 'it' / Andrea mitchell

    5. Yes USD Commercial net short but it doesnt not mean USD could reverse . It just pulling back for a while then rally strong . Commercial just doing HEDGING not speculation. They just buy on the way down and sell on the way back. Usually they too early to get a position, maybe months or years before any significant top and bottom

  4. Gold can not exceed Last Friday High @1231 it not easy to bounce this week

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  6. Gold is all over the place. What does this volatility harbinger?

    1. Some type of ECB rumor or news of a stimulus program of some type.
      Maybe the OMT/Outright Monetary Transactions they dangled over a year ago?

      I think whatever it is they imply or actually do is that it needs to be seen as different then what the US QE was seen to be from abroad and how effective or ineffective it appeared to be.

      The EU has every reason/excuse they need to proceed with a large stimulative operation. France, Spain and Italy need help soon.
      OMT might be it.

  7. Silver may be a gift at these prices for a short-term profit but we need balls of steel.

  8. i think the next hat should not be eaten, but crammed - use your imagination. we are now at five dollars below where silver never, ever would close, ever again. good grief. yet the guy is still in "business". and the Andrew McGuire shit show continues over there. good grief.


    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

    2. Regarding the current Andrew Maguire nonsense and regurgitation of old news...
      To think that The Turd can actually assert in one of his recent posts that the JPM part of it needn't be mentioned or important at this point is a complete 180 degrees from the YEARS of accusing, moaning and proclaiming that JPM must be held to account criminally or otherwise.

      The whole thing at this point was just another gullible sideshow from the start. Instead of everyone there wondering which person it is that's full of BS might it just be that it's EVERYONE involved and all they're doing is self promoting each other while shredding their credibility in front of anyone who'll listen or print it?

      Seriously, Turd promotes and pumps up Maguire like he's a friend and he can't even get him on his site to clarify or support Turds consistent assertions about AM, JPM and silver.
      What does that tell you?

      And the folks who don't know any better or those who'll believe anything just suck it right up instead of looking at the big picture (and the charts!) and putting 2+2 together at some point.

      Getting tangled up in someone elses web of obsessions and anxieties over the markets, metals, monetary policy, govt. and just about everything else it is that bugs them (aka chronic outrage) has become a non-stop drama that at this point is beyond laughable.

      What it shows me is that there really isn't much meat in the AM drama that matters one bit. What you have going on is several people that have turned small bits and pieces of CONJECTURE over the years into what they IMAGINE to be proof of some large and ground shaking event of importance that didn't even come close to what they thought possible.

      And now it's not even necessary for JPM to get mentioned?
      What would be the purpose then...besides drama, mouse clicks and a monetary interest in keeping old news alive...while the entire time the metals have plummeted for YEARS and not one of them was accurate or sincere in their constant perma-bullish outlook.

      Why is anyone still taking any of it seriously?

    3. DPH;

      Hemke, Maquire, Turk, etc. are all part of the flim flam circus that infests the world of precious metals.

      What is so tragic is that there is actually a place for gold in one's investment portfolio and maybe eventually the global monetary system ( who know?) but men like the above so discredit the metal with their non-stop, idiotic claims, dogmatic assertions and aura of special insight, that some who will rightly discard them and their worthless opinions might even be tempted to discard gold itself.

      That would be a mistake as I am of the view that a prudent person will hold the metal because of all the turbulence created by Central Bank activity and the potential for unknowns.

      It is however my own view that gold is primarily INSURANCE and the fact that these charlatans continue to OBSESS over it shows that they really do not understand the metal but are attempting to profit off of what they pedal in regards to it.

      I have said it many times, and will say so again, who in their right mind do you know that picks up his or her insurance policy on their car or home and reads it every single day, every single hour wondering - no, strike that - obsessing, hoping that they can collect on it?

      No one that we would regard as sane would do such a thing. That should be the number one warning sign that something else is afoot with these people.

      Some who read us here accuse of "gold bashing" or of being "gold haters". That is utter foolishness. What we cannot stand is the plethora of charlatans who end up financially raping their followers, many of whom were sincere people who were concerned what was happening in the financial markets and were unsure of what to do.

      Honestly I do not know how some of these hucksters sleep at night.Then again, we live in an age in which virtue, honor, morality and righteousness are becoming increasingly rare.

    4. 100% in agreement with your thoughts Dan, but as the Sparks Spellcheck Minister, it is peddle, NOT pedal. Laughter is the best medicine, hahaha. Go A's tonite !

    5. Very funny Dan, the bit about the insurance policy. I am one of those compulsive types that likes to read it, reread it, and then once more to make quite sure - but not every day!

  9. there is so much new domestic oil supply coming onto market. It is surely keeping a lid on crude. the P&Es are getting destroyed. They are extremely sensitive to credit conditions, and that is saying something. We are approaching the end of this cycle of cheap credit. They were the best performing group from the beginning of the year until early-mid Summer. My guess is that many of them are now flat on the year to down. I think traders are beginning to price in a quicker rate response from the Fed, especially as equities keep levitating

    I don't normally subscribe to a particular person's market views (in terms of predictions) but Martin Armstrong has been the one person who seems to be getting this right.

    Which is not good, because I can see the movements in the markets and the scenario he paints lining up very well for something later next year. There are just so many market distortions going on. I think the Fed will have to act on interest rates sooner rather than later, as they will be blamed for any stock market bubble that may form.

    My opinion is that they have kept interest rates way too low for way too long, which is why we are seeing what we are seeing. All that QE has been making it down to sovereign wealth funds and they are now deploying it into equities. they got out of a lot of their bond and mortgage holdings, scared to hell during 2011. Sure foreign holdings of Treasuries keep inching up, but not at the pace of issuance.

    CNBC got on Schiller's case this morning when he said that equities were overvalued. Schiller is smart and he knows history, but he didn't provide any real reasons. They are, but that doesn't preclude them from going up a lot more before this is through. And it seems the economy has little to do with valuations. Once again, Armstrong provides the best explanations.

    I worry that a strong dollar will put the brakes on real estate, too.

    It reminds me of 2005 when Bernanke and Greenspan were both testifying to Congress about real estate and interest rates. They both said the Fed didn't cause the bubble, but having the fed funds rate below 2% for three to four years didn't hurt the price rise. However, they both said they were going to raise rates until the Fed deflated it. Well, they did cause it and they did deflate it.

    I see the same thing happening again, but now that the US is the tent pole propping up the circus tent of a global economy, if anything happens (i.e. debt crisis like 2011 or worse) I can only imagine of the implications. The Fed will have to take all the problems around the world into consideration at the worst time.

    These low rates are going to come back to haunt us. The misallocation of capital is unprecedented, and the increase in govt spending is not sustainable long term.

    1. Eph. I'm not sure that it's tight oil production that has brought down WTI. WTI has actually tightened against Brent over the past month even with today s setback. If oil breaks down I would be afraid for the US economy.

      As I mentioned in a previous thread, the s&p giants depend on EMEA for a huge contribution to sales. The strong dollar and recession in Europe, Russia tensions, Africa, And ME chaos are not going to do much for q3 earnings. Add to that the end of QE and it looks like a scary quarter.

  10. Silver:

    For the month (Sep) -12.4%
    For the year (2014) -14.4%
    From 2011 High -65.7%
    From $18.65 support -10% (touch low to $16.79)


    For the year -1.3%
    From the 2011 High -37%

  11. 1st case of Ebola diagnosed in the US - Dallas TX. get your colloidal silver now.

  12. If only you all realized Trader Dan uses gold as clickbait just as shamelessly as the "hucksters."

    Can you a name a blogger that attacks other bloggers the way trader Dan does? If you can I'd like to see it.

    1. Stu Ungar;

      You are a perfect example of those who are so warped in your mind and so in love with a piece of metal that your judgment is hopelessly clouded.

      How many ads do you see here on my site? Do you see a subscription fee being charged here?

      This blog COSTS me time and aggravation from dealing with morons like yourself and other members of the gold cult.

      Now get lost because if I see any more of your posts, they are gone. I will not tolerate lies and falsehoods from people with an agenda.

      And for the record, I will expose anyone who is a charlatan who dupes unsuspecting and innocent people out of their money by presenting one-sided, biased and skewed views of a metal that is in a bearish price trend and has been for some years now.

    2. Trader Dan ---- I think it is a good thing that folks like Stu show up here. It means that you have made a name for yourself. It seems as though you’ve become quite popular ….. and as such, there will always be those folks that come in and try to attack. They do not attack “unknown folks”. But it REALLY is a complement to you! No need to be aggravated. And, for someone like me, I find it to be a little entertaining (and enlightening) to see you easily shoot down their moronic arguments. It’s a nice education. Also – maybe you should put on some ads. You may be able to make some money doing this --- you GREATLY deserve it! Your analysis is excellent!

    3. The only agenda is yours trader Dan. I also ask you to identify any posts I've made that say I'n in "love" with a piece of metal or that I am a member of a cult. You won't because its an ad hominem attack that you've concocted out of thin air to fit your narrative. What "lies" did I post? None. Can even you name a blogger that relentlessly and without provocation attacks others as much as you? I can't.

    4. the single biggest show of Trader Dan's integrity: not allowing banner ads. His blog is a gift. It has essentially taught me how to trade and use trading/TA as a tool to time entry into investments. You maya as we'll call him a Hydrocarbon hating troll for calling the top for WTI this year, or a Vegan for warning cattle and hog bulls.

    5. Stu, what hypocrisy, it was you who started the ad hominem attacks against Dan.

    6. Eric Webber, MDGLTO and Peter;

      Thanks for the kind defense. Guys like "Stubbed his Udder" are a dime a dozen. They cannot accept anything that does not fit their narrative and have no ability to see markets in an objective, REASONED fashion. They sit and sit and sit on losing positions, while their net wealth evaporates, all the while exclaiming that it is just a matter of time before the market turns and they become obscenely wealthy.

      I have seen dozens of them in my trading career as their carcasses are road kill on the floor of the trading pits.

      The most expensive lessons I have learned were the ones I learned the best, namely, if you are in a losing trade, get out before you end up having no trading career.

      I lost a lot of money in my early days as a trader but looking back on it now, I can see that those losses were a blessing in disguise because they taught me a very healthy respect for the power of leverage and how quickly it can make one a "former" trader.

      I just finished chatting with a friend down at one of my kid's soccer games this afternoon who told me about a guy he knew who lost $10K in three days time and ended his fledging day trading career.

      I told him he should have given the guy my phone number and let me talk to him before he got cleaned out.

      Again, very sad, but very expected. I can tell you with 100% conviction that the reason most people fail at trading is entirely between their heads and it has little to do with chart reading and everything to do with pride, stubbornness, greed and outright ignorance of the nature of markets.

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  13. I saw this from a goldbug as reasons to buy gold RIGHT now.

    1) "US dollar index COT as of 9/23/14 Commercials added 2279 shorts to give us a picture of , get ready for this, --------- Commercial long = 5,636 and Commercial SHORT = 70,166. Those long dollar are on the wrong side of the bet if Commercial are the smart money. "

    2) A Chinese central bank gold buy program would make the US government and central bank very happy, because it would significantly devalue the dollar against the yuan, helping to reduce the gargantuan US trade deficit with China. The Fed would save face, because as the business cycle turned down, it wouldn’t have to bring back QE. Gold revaluation would do a better job of stimulating US trade with the lower dollar, and confiscation in America would not be necessary, since few citizens own any gold.. . Revaluation could also benefit Europe, which is battling deflation by devaluing the euro against the dollar. That policy is not working. In contrast, higher gold prices created by Chinese gold revaluation means higher commodity and retail goods prices, in both dollars and euros

    ALWAYS some reason out there to buy gold!

  14. Eric, what moronic claims have I made? Can you list them for me? I am a fundmental investor and frankly I find Trader Dan ignores blatant contradictions that dont fit his narrative. In his mind only western paper trading matters. I have a differing opinion, but I don;t need to attack trader dan to give my position, and yet he does. That bothers me.

    1. Well, why don't we start with this

      "If only you all realized Trader Dan uses gold as clickbait just as shamelessly as the "hucksters."

      Can you a name a blogger that attacks other bloggers the way trader Dan does? If you can I'd like to see it."

      That was pretty moronic, I'd say!

    2. If you're a fundamental trader .... then give your reasons. Cause I can provide a pretty darn sound fundamental argument for why gold is likely to eventually head to $1000. So far the price is agreeing with the this sentiment. IF, it heads above $1400, then I will change my tune. In other words, we ought not be married to our sentiment. You clearly are!

    3. I am with you eric. What fundamentals?

    4. Stu - one cannot use "clickbait" when one isn't selling anything...

      contrast this with the scumbags that Dan (and I) spend great amounts of our time exposing - trying to *help* their victims...

  15. Lets start with the fact that China alone essentially absorbs all the gold mined in the world every year. Roughly every other ounce purchased in the entire world has to be coaxed out of existing supply. Every central bank in the world has been embarking on stimulative monetary policy unheard of in the very brief history of virtual money. Virtually every central bank in the world is endlessly stimulative. War is breaking out in the mideast. Europe is extremely unsettled and more so. The global heads of every emerging central bank on earth have publicly discussed the importance of the end of dollar hegemony. We've run a trade deficit every year since 1974. Competing governments are openly challenging the dollar on multiple fronts and we have a monetary, fiscal and demographic time bomb about to hit on an unheard of scale with a population woefully underskilled to serve. And yet you believe, that for the first time in recorded history, that it is wise to store all of your excess labor in electronic code stored into a hard drive? You ask "what fundamental case for gold?" with a straight face and expect to be taken seriously? You think it's all over? QE worked, they raise rates and we move on?


    Good luck to you Sir.

    1. ****Lets start with the fact that China alone essentially absorbs all the gold mined in the world every year. Roughly every other ounce purchased in the entire world has to be coaxed out of existing supply*****

      ----This is a truly absurd statement. There is NO way this is true. But even if it were, selling on the open market can still increase existing supply enough to cause gold to plummet all the way to $1000. Only need more sellers than buyers.

      ******* Every central bank in the world has been embarking on stimulative monetary policy unheard of in the very brief history of virtual money. Virtually every central bank in the world is endlessly stimulative*******

      -----So what? This helped drive gold up from the 2008 low of $700 all the way to $1900 as it went parabolic. The ~$1200 increase was primarily due to the fact that so many were afraid of hyp-inflation. The liquidity of relatively new ETFs made this predominately possible (See Trader Dan’s GLD charts). BUT, we did not get hyper-inflation. These “stimulative” measures, while inflationary at first, actually become Disinflationary or even deflationary over the long run because you end up saturating the lending industry. The gold move priced in this hyper-inflationary scenario. It did not get it, and now gold is heading LOWER.

      ********* War is breaking out in the mideast. Europe is extremely unsettled and more so. The global heads of every emerging central bank on earth have publicly discussed the importance of the end of dollar hegemony. We've run a trade deficit every year since 1974.

      ------ ALL alarmism here! The number of geopolitical related deaths have been VERY steadily declining ever since the 1970s. The World is MUCH more calm now than it was then. Each decade has shown the number geoplotically driven deaths to decline. You are clearly overreacting to the increase in media coverage – and this has biased you judgment.

      *********Competing governments are openly challenging the dollar on multiple fronts and we have a monetary, fiscal and demographic time bomb about to hit on an unheard of scale with a population woefully underskilled to serve.

      ------ Sounds like some kind of wacko conspiracy talk here. The dollar is still King of the currency world, and will remain as such decades to come. For macro-economic reasons, it will remain bullish. 89% of currency pairs traded include the US dollar, and it holds a 65% reserve margin for foreign governments. By the year 2020, America is on pace to become the world’s largest energy exporter! This will hold inflation in check and provide substantial economic growth.

      *********And yet you believe, that for the first time in recorded history, that it is wise to store all of your excess labor in electronic code stored into a hard drive?

      ------ not sure what to say here. See a psychiatrist, maybe?

      You ask "what fundamental case for gold?" with a straight face and expect to be taken seriously? You think it's all over? QE worked, they raise rates and we move on?

      ------- Well, that is what is occurring right now. Step outside and take a look. Do you see a disaster? The US economy is rebounding. It’s not a 1980 – 1990s style rebound, but nonetheless it is indeed rebounding by nearly any rational objective measure. You, sir, are instead a doomsday speculator, who thinks that the world around you is some kind of façade and will one day come crashing down. And then you will get rich on gold. That is Not healthy, my man!

    2. Point by point :Do you know the Chinese import statistics? Do you know how much gold they import? Simply replying "no way" isn't enough to keep up with a conversation with me, sir.

      No, it was not central bank buying that drove gold up from 2001, sir, because they were new SELLERS until 2008.

      The world is much more calm then it was in the 1970's?

      So here I'm going to stop responding to your points, three strikes and you're out, Bubba.

    3. Go look it up and report back before you strike me out. Show me the proof. BTW - I know the answers - so you aint gonna pull one over one me.

  16. Oh yeah, did I mention no central bank in the world is selling gold, in fact, they are buying as fast as they can. What fundamental case? I'm likely just throwing pearls to swine.

    1. Central banks are always WAY behind the curve when it comes to buying/selling gold. They had maximum selling in 1999 when gold reached a low of $250. they then had maximum buying at the top when gold reached $1900. You will know it is time to buy after capitulation and Central banks begin selling. This is the Ezekiel 7:19 moment!

    2. Eric,
      Amen, bro. I have always stated that central banks and treasuries are actually contrarian indicators. they make decisions by consensus, thus only act when the trend has already been established. I would not be shocked if there has been selling out the back door at these levels. Imagine if gold hits 1,000. there will be calls for banks to dislodge that relic of years gone by. they will quote bernanke and say that we need to change tradition.

    3. The mandates of CBs are inflation control and/or unemployment. It is not their main duty to long or short gold

  17. American demographics far and away superior to aging Japanese and various European countries. As for China, they may get old before they get rich as their misguided 1 child comes back to bite. Also conveniently overlooked by pm bulls is the simple fact that the thieving oligarchs from China, Russia and Latin America have been consistent buyers of the West Coast from San Diego to Vancouver, NYC and Miami, but curiously not each other. Why do you think that is? And as far as deficits go, come on, somebody has to run deficits and somebody has to run surpluses and that is all from Sparks.

  18. It is at least entertaining to see gold bugs completely loosing it , and gold bears getting fatter and smarter by the day .... for what ever is worth , and for those new to this I will say that we are all puppets people and everything you read has long been discounted . Don't forget . Take advantage following what the big guys are doing , trade the range , sometimes you win sometimes you loose . I for one think its completely idiotic to be in these paper market for the long run , call it equities , bonds , derivatives , and any other paper product design by banksters to take advantage of the little guy .

    We are now breaking down , in my opinion time to buy PMs , just my opinion , not trying to convince anyone to do so . I am all in , invested on my miners , started buying a few days ago , as I posted here , some are under water already , some amazingly still up .

    I just cashed in on half of my puts for a nice profit , and intend to liquidate the other half probably by the end of this week .

    I also intend to put those profits back to work and add to the positions that I am building .

    My strategy is that at least on my picks we will not see new lows in this down turn .

    I was a little too early , but its never easy catching falling knives !

    I believe we shall see a bounce sooner rather than later , perhaps next week , don't have much hope this week due to the chinese holiday and NFPs on friday . Then probably new lows .

    If we get a bounce , I will buy puts to cover the position , if we don't then i ll try to ride it out , stops , etc ... . My puts have my back well covered for the time being .

    In the meantime I will keep on trading this crazy stock market that only goes higher . I stopped holding any positions in the stock market over night . The fed is your friend until it isn't , and I suspect that the day it changes , it will be dramatic , and not during market hours .. put a monthly chart for a well respected company like GILD , just to name one , and you will see what I mean.
    I believe though the stock market is going higher .

    I dont understand the people that make a personal crusade out of defending a particular asset , I never will , money has no colour , no principles , and goes to bed with everybody . You fall in love , you get killed .... stock market crashes in the last few years , gold crash in 2013 , etc ... should have taught some lessons , but I guess people don't learn . I got killed in both ... since then i became a trader ... if you can not be on top of the screens regularly , you better do something else with your money , if you can't make a job out of this don't do it , or play very little ... and never , never listen to letter writers ..

    gold bugs , bears , good night

  19. in fact Dan , just came out with an idea , in order to make all bears happy , and to be able to focus on the subject in hand , that being trading commodities . In the spirit of diplomacy , me , being more of a bug than a bear ... even thought I short the living hell out of gold every time I see a decent opportunity ... , why don't you , since your walls are clean , make a list of MOST WANTED by the bear community , big tombstones , names , photographs , and below , all their crimes committed , failed tops , bottoms ... etc . Perhaps , that way we can stop the whining around here ... We can even use Marks nick names . No disrespect this is your blog , and you do as you please with it . I am more than grateful that you have it opened for every one to see . I just thought it would be a good idea . Best as always .

    1. Anon;

      Let me think about that! A Hall of Shame!

    2. I have a nominee!

      I just came acoss this update to the Maguire/Cohan mess that some drama king started up that has turned into an absolute tire fire that has completely engulfed his site.

      Besides being the one who started up the blaze he now tires of the nonsense....that he started!
      A little late for that.
      Here's the quip...
      "Below is the email reply that William Cohan sent off to Dr. Janda upon review of this post:

      this may have reached the point of ridiculousness i am afraid. i never mentioned
      the JPM point. everyone knows JPM is the big kahuna here as i wrote in my NYT article.
      it is about being able to include the fact that Andrew's lawyers went to two other enforcement
      agencies and won't let me identify them and the fact that Andrew's colleague will no longer
      allow me to quote him.
      thanks for sharing

      As you can see, we are nowhere near any type resolution/clarification of this matter and I, for one, am getting sick of dealing with it.


      He's reaping what he's sown.
      And in the end the guy isn't even capable or willing to moderate the tire fire he's allowed to soot up most of his site.
      Seriously, if he hasn't recognized by now that a few complete nutjobs have totally taken control of the messaging coming from the site then he's more then just disengaged...he's checked out and just doesn't care.
      Because if he had any common sense at all he would've realized long ago that he completely ignored his rational base of posters and watched them leave in droves because he catered to the angry wack jobs there now.

      A word to SSJ and others who are still trying to bring some logic and clear thinking onboard over there....give it up!
      The guy in charge doesn't recognize or care if a band of gullible miscreants has run roughshod over the site because MAYBE he's one of them or has allowed one of them to run the site and handle the crowd which is why they don't recognize a problem or see the need to change anything.

      Birds of a feather flock together and they'll crap all over each other and they like it that way.

      There's a reason(s) I jumped off that ship. It's an aimless crazy train that's about to jump the tracks.

    3. DPH;

      The problem with Mr. Maquire and those who promoted him. such as Mr. Hemke and Mr. King, was that their own preconceived bias blinded them to the obvious. They wanted so desperately to believe that every move lower in gold was the result of some nefarious evil force that they failed to look at the simple facts that could easily be drawn from studying the charts, the COT, and the rest of the fundamentals that we spend so much time over here detailing nearly every single day.

      Rather than admit that what they were doing was causing their blinded devotees to be financially devastated and in some cases, personally ruined; rather than admit that they were dead wrong about the market, they continued with the pathetic narrative that they had stumbled upon some "insider with incredible connections" that had the gold market so completely diagnosed that he could do no wrong. That would work to keep providing them with some sort of credibility when all such credibility should have long ago been destroyed to an unbiased observer.

      All one had to do was watch the price action to understand how much of a fraud this guy was and is. Where was the accountability for the many failed predictions and for those websites that kept him in the public eye and held forth his every pronouncement as if it were some divine oracle from on high? Answer - there was none. Instead of seeing the obvious most of them decided it was easier to rail against, hurl their venom at or insult those of us who dared to challenge his claims.

      How much money has been lost by people who were sucked into this charade by those websites promoting him and giving him a forum to spew his nonsense?

      That is my beef - I do not know him nor could I care less about knowing him. All I know is that a large number of people were duped by him AND by those websites promoting him in spite of all evidence in the price action to the contrary.

      For that we are labeled as gold haters over here or as gold bashers when time and time again all we have done is to point out the obvious. Then again, that is what happens when people are trapped IN A CULT. and make no mistake about it - many in the gold community are trapped in a cult whether they can see it or not.

      I am hopeful that this sort of deception is coming to an end. Maybe some of their victims will come to their senses before all of them are left shattered and financially shipwrecked on the rocks.

      As I said yesterday, my only hope is that once these many websites and their huckster promoters are exposed, that their despicable and shameless non-stop wildl claims does not actually discredit the actual metal gold itself which still has a proper place in investors' portfolios.

    4. i have come to the conclusion that Turd's site is exactly how he wants it. he has found his niche. he admits in the Shimshock testimonial that you linked that TFMR operates on the fringe. and if you read that again, you will realize that to Turd, the site is his business, and that is all. he does not care if his followers lose money, even lose everything they have, as long as he is making it. that is why the guys like us,who expressed concerns long ago as to the direction of that site, publicly and privately, all were eventually run off the blog.

      look, fear sells, and Turd knows it. now that "Mr. Fix" nut job, is posting articles claiming that the US government and other evil powers created and released the ebola virus, to thin the population. this guy has been on the top of the "leaderboard" over there for many months, that tells me that the only people left there are ignorant and frightened sheep, standing in line for the next shearing. yup, it has been a while now since Turd launched one of his fundraisers.

    5. I'm not so sure they can stop (or even recognize) how myopic they've become at the expense of others.
      The mindset and belief system involved might be so extreme and obsessive that they're simply incapable of dealing with the market reality that exists.

      The "battle" they continue to wage is one that they've slowly constructed in their minds over time that they're determined not to lose.

      Being wrong, and genuinely contrite, doesn't fit within that business model. It's easier to keep everyone distracted with some type of convoluted narrative that quite frankly is nothing more then bits and pieces of unproveable assumptions they've manufactured into some grandiose theory that's being sold as being factual.

      Not being able to prove it or "facts" that don't quite line up or make sense is merely an inconvenient obstacle they can't reconcile within themselves and certaintly not in front of their target audience.

      It is what it is until it isn't.

      Btw...I don't see anyone complaining about the manipulative surge (dead cat bounce) in the metals this a.m. };^)

  20. I'm looking for the opinions from the board in regards to silver. I just find it hard to understand why it is falling so hard since July? Look at the chart! What would cause such a panic out of silver? Does anyone know what the supply demand numbers are for 2014? According to the www.silverinstitute.org silver had a 113 million ounce deficit in the supply/demand if I am reading that correctly. The US Mint just released it's september sales figures for 2014 and it was 4.1 million ounces the 3rd highest number for 2014. It doesn't look like capitulation occurring in the small physical buyers. Is the industrial demand falling of a cliff? Has anyone read the CPM 2014 silver year book? Is there anything to be found in that book that would cause silver to be so unloved? The gold/silver ratio traded above 71 today. I believe the highest it was in the last 10 years was 83 to 1 and that occurred during the 2008 crisis. Look at any ratio you want copper/silver spx/silver wtic/silver and it becomes apparent that silver is becoming severely undervalued, why? I have been a very long term silver investor and I was buying silver at $4.50 to $5.00 in 2001 to 2003 as it appeared very undervalued. My intuition is telling we are again approaching a similar point in history that silver is way undervalued. So please tell me what I am not seeing, that silver should be valued at this price because I totalyl can't understand it. Thanks in advance for any of your thoughts.

    1. silverwood;

      Try to keep in mind that the entire commodity world is under selling pressure. The thinking in the markets at the moment is that GLOBAL GROWTH is slowing, especially in China - the source of a great deal of demand for commodities.

      Take a look at the chart of copper or crude oil or soybeans or corn or wheat or most anything commodity and what is it doing? It is falling lower in price.

      The reason is twofold -
      1.) Surging prices a couple to three years ago resulted in a HUGE RAMP in supply
      2.) This increased supply has hit the market at the same time global growth is slowing.

      Result - demand has not been able to keep up with the increase in supply for most commodities and as a result price is falling. Eventually prices will find a bottom but we do not know at what new equilibrium level that will be.

      I prefer to let the market tell me when something is undervalued. None of us know that level. We may think we do but we traders deal with leveraged markets and buying anything leveraged can be most detrimental to ones trading account if they are wrong.

      Buying physical is something else because you are acquiring the actual metal, without any leverage.

      That being said, your time line on your investment horizon needs to consider that silver could stay range bound for years after it has found a new and lower equilibrium price level.

  21. TRADER DAN , can you comment on the natgas complex some time? I am reading how seasonal factors are starting to push prices up yet we have deflationary forces all around us. Thanks in advance.

    1. Ignacio;
      Thanks for the comments but I rarely trade Natural Gas as I feel I do not have a thorough enough handle on its fundamentals. Sorry about that.

    2. Gas is hard for me to trade. I can win lose quick so quick

  22. Thanks Dan, I just want to say that I have always respected what you say and have followed you since your postings on jsmineset.com. I did get burned buying back too soon as I have been buying since silver hit $20 support level, I guess I need to learn the lesson of catching a falling knife the hard way.

  23. David Pretending Puppet, out of Europe of course, with his $100 silver charts once again. He and Harvey Organ in their 4th quarter mad dash to the sewer of busted predictions. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  24. don't have time to read comments section at blogs, but can note the amount of comments for sentiment..

    dec cattle LE back down to upper bollinger band, looking fairly firm a made a little trendline off the lows under 148.

    coffee had made a trendline as well and bounced, commentators think buy if it goes back down to retest the line.

    'sell rosh buy yom' still working for SPX and ags, yom is 10/3.

    20-week MA is equivalent to 100-day MA i.e. 5 trading days in the week. ES the 100-day is 1955.

    buh buh buh Bonds! we woke up to bunds new contract high. non-farm payroll friday.

    china closed 10/1-7 for holiday. some gold sellers came out yest. on that lack of support feature.


    1. 77 ----Bonds are not at new contract highs. You need a new eye doctor.

  25. SPX oscillators getting nicely stretched further down with today's action. Snapback will be furious with any good news (my favorite guess is it will be serious Draghi Money Bomb). Leading indicators continue strong. Bear markets don't occur during expansions, and this one is only picking up steam.

  26. 17% break in 90 days for the platinum, which seldom lies. Not at all bullish for industrial or precious metals, except of course in the Bizarro World @KWN.

  27. Hello,

    I've started my new job so my comments will be scarce.
    1210 support is still here at the close for gold bulls. There is a light of hope for a bounce as long as it holds on a weekly time unit, imo, because of the Fibonacci level there. Let's see where we'll be by week end.
    Have a nice day,

    1. A new job. You are a trader extraordinaire. This should be your full time job.

  28. Construction spending in August fell 0.8% from a revised +1.2% (from +1.8%) in July. It was expected in at +0.5%. this is why the fed will come around to the notion that bonds need to be strong, to save the housing market. plus lower interest rates would help lower the us dollar.

    bubblin' crude got back the attitude. inventory data showed a big unexpected draw, gets CL back above the 20-day MA and oft mentioned 92.50 pivot! we shall see if it was a commodity blow em all out to end the qtr or not! CL is the big daddy of commodities!


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