“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Thursday, August 7, 2014

Russian Food Ban sends Livestock Futures Reeling

Russia has announced a retaliatory ban on food products from nations supporting the sanctions that were imposed on it in response to the ongoing events in Ukraine.

Personally the food ban is going to do nothing except to hurt their own citizens by driving up the cost of food there but it has just knocked a huge chunk of profitability out of the pockets of US livestock producers.

Here are the cattle and hog charts. You can see the carnage that the ban has produced. August cattle are limit down. Feeders were down the limit but have managed to bounce slightly. There is some buying coming into the August  fats as it pops off the limit but selling remains heavy at the moment.



Hogs are getting sucked into the downdraft with the impact being felt more so in the 4th quarter contracts rather than the August which is already deeply discounted and goes off the board next week.



This is the reason that I have been suggesting to both cattle and hog producers for some time now to secure downside hedge protection on expected Q4 production. As a producer, you simply do not have the luxury of staring record profits in the face and not doing a single thing to LOCK IN those profits and GUARANTEE yourself some outstanding, once-in-a-lifetime profits on your product. One never knows what sort of event came come out of the clear blue sky and strike. In a single moment, all of those profits have now gone up in smoke, vanishing, never to be regained. Speculators can play this game but not producers. You are in business to make profits; not risk them. Take them while they are there and lock them in when you can, not when you have to. Remember that if you are a producer of any sort.

My own view is that the market overreacted to the news since Russian red meat demand from the US has lost quite a bit of the significance that it once held over our markets many years ago. I recall trading hogs one year in which Russia announced a ban on US chicken. That sent the entire hog industry into a state of collapse ( it was back in 1996 if memory serves me correctly).

Our export markets have grown considerably since then with a large array of good and reliable importers from abroad. However, old habits die hard and the knee-jerk reaction was to sell first and ask questions later. Once that occurred, the fund computers took over and that is pretty much all she wrote for the rest of the session.

A quick note - The US Dollar is back up there knocking on that overhead resistance door near 81.66 basis the USDX. Safe haven buying is supporting the Dollar as well as bringing buying into gold and the US bond market. If the Dollar does managed to stage an upside breakout, I suspect gold is going to struggle once geopolitical issues fade.

As said many times here of late, gold bulls are basking in the geopolitical fears around Ukraine. As long as that is on traders' radar screen, the metal will hold as it will find dip buyers. If that event were to lose its significance in the minds of traders ( and unless one has an infallible crystal ball and unerringly knows the future when that might occur ) look for selling pressure to hit the metal. Until IF/WHEN that happens, support is intact under the market. All I can say is that traders who believe the Ukranian fears are overrated are going to be selling this rally. Those who look for the situation to worsen, will be buying the dips. One side or the other will eventually be correct. So unless you infallibly know the future, be careful but above all, ignore EVERYONE who is making price predictions about the metal. They know nothing further than any of the rest of us how all this will play itself out.

Beneficial rains are bringing pressure on the grain markets this morning after they experienced a "Ukranian bounce" in yesterday's session. Weather across the Midwest looks ideal for corn and beans to finish up. Corn is essentially made at this point. With beans ahead of last year's pace, the August weather thus far has been almost perfect. Tight old crop supplies in the hands of domestic crushers is supporting the bean market for the time being. Crushers are not turning loose of those beans and that has so far resulted in no deliveries against those August contracts that are in their delivery period. This is going to be interesting to see as the basis weakens.

My own personal view is that the crushers who are holding those beans back are propping up the entire bean market, both old crop and new crop. That is keeping farmers from selling but it is also going to be an important factor as S. American farmers get ready to plant down there. With beans being out of whack price wise against corn, odds would favor more acreage going to beans at the expense of corn. I am concerned that a huge crop here in combination with the potential for huge acreage going to beans down in the Southern Hemisphere, could leave a large number of US farmers stuck with very little in the way of downside price protection at the same time available storage is in going to be strained.

I cannot tell US crushers how to run their business but I believe that they are going to end up hurting many US farmers as they play this game of chicken with the market.

68 comments:

  1. the top is in for the hogs and I would think is near for the feeders and fats, with fats topping first. as far as how horrible things are overnight on a daily basis, I ask myself if I would buy more pm's? no, except for the grandchildren.

    And, I once said that there could never be a worse potus than the peanut farmer, but MAN, was I wrong!!! This is what we get when we elect an inexperienced senator and filthy Chicago politician. SAD

    ReplyDelete
  2. "7 Aug 14, 12:17 blknblu1: Nobody is saying this, so I will. For some months now, Trader Dan has had rather negative rhetoric towards the gold community and gold itself, with rarely a good word to say. Every uptick a mistake, and every down tick the market simply asserting itself. It's no wonder I removed the shortcut from my desktop a while back, but have been watching his words closely for signs of Armstrongesque. Sad, I think, but I'm sure happy I took my own advice instead of his... and what today... crickets. --> http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca/ He's been a rational, measured mind for years, but not now when it comes to gold it seems. Food for thought."


    Apart from the obvious observation that its a bit silly to delete a link from ones desktop if one still closely reads the site - what does he do, type the link into the search bar every time - I remain convinced that untill these kind a guys *get it* gold has not bottomed.

    Too many delusional bugs betting the farm on gold means it cannot go up. These guys are heavily invested in Jimmys "mine" that does not explore does not receive royalty payments and does not produce not will it in years if ever. They are not going to be saved by the greater fool theory.

    Id say Jim will buy the shares he sold to them at multiples of todays price back at a fraction of todays price.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree that Trader Dan has changed his perspective, significantly on precious metals. Maybe he got burned or maybe he just received a bunch of negative comments and had enough? In my opinion, he has become very short thinking. He views this as being an effective trader. Good traders today have to think a bit longer term because the short term is controlled by Algorithms, High Frequency Traders, Bogus information , Big Fast Money, etc.

      Over the past 13 years, Gold has more than tripled in price, along with Silver. In the next decade or less, I am betting there will be another tripling in the price of each metal.

      Short term traders have to be correct alot. Longer term traders not so much!

      Delete
    2. In February 2008 - before Lehmans, but well after the subprime and other credit-crunchy crises were underway - Silver stood at 20.25; today it is below that level

      In March 2011 it stood above $46

      Where was your erudite wisdom then?

      We can all be Einstein after the fact - as long as we choose our facts selectively - but the art of being a Trader is to identify what is going on in the Here and Now, not in the past or in some hypothetical future predicated by a highly-stylised interpretation of "fundamentals"

      Both I - and I believe Dan - hold Gold. Not as an investment - and certainly not as a tradeable asset - but as an insurance policy. However, not only are Precious Metals relatively expensive to trade, they are, for the time being at least, apparently directionless and range-bound, making them less suitable for "swing" or momentum traders to speculate on. As a consequence I - and I believe Dan - currently have no particular opinion of where Gold & Silver are headed over any realistically short-term trading horizon, and are content to sit on our hands until we break out either above $1400 or below $1200. In the meantime, there are other games to play with our money

      However, what I - and I believe Dan - have an aversion to is the continuous and repetitive babble of lies, misinformation and carefully selected factoids which are trotted out by people who do not propose to trade themselves, but to encourage others to take positions - always on the Long side, very often in Silver rather than Gold, and almost always claiming some form of "injustice", manipulation or imminent turning point. These people we call Charlatans - and in my case, especially so of they represent a vested interest in the form of seeking to sell retail bullion products on the back of their ridiculous pseudo-analysis

      Long term traders - if that is what you claim to be - need to have deep pockets, because of a mechanism called Variation Margin, and the market can remain "irrational" for a lot longer than most people can remain solvent. Being "Long & Wrong" is the classic Loser's Bet, and the hallmark of any successful trader is knowing when to cut & run, living to Fight Another Day. Unfortunately, many of your supposed "Long Term Traders" lose almost all of their personal wealth - firstly to the market, and then in the Divorce process

      This blog is a fairly Broad Church, tolerant of all faiths and creeds; but to single Dan out as having a particular bias is neither reasonable nor is it particularly respectful given that the guy provides, supports and hosts this free discussion forum. With this in mind, if you have something to add to the debate - go for it; but if all you intend to do is preach Goldbuggery and launch personal attacks on Dan's integrity, then there may be other forums where you will receive a far warmer welcome from a far more receptive - and I would say less informed - audience

      Delete
    3. Zhang;

      Thank you my friend. I could not have said it any better!

      Being around in these markets and making my living IN THEM and not OFF OF THEM like so many of these clowns makes me, and I suspect you as well, an "effective" trader. I am still here after more than 25 years of doing this. Then again, you always have to deal with the small-minded twits that infest the blogosphere like this clown Megaprophet.

      Watch and see - if gold ever does decide to go anywhere and especially if it breaks into a bullish chart pattern, and I begin posting friendly articles about it, this same nitwit will love me once more. It is only when one dares to speak negatively about their beloved yellow metal god that they despise you. If you hold yourself out as an "eggspurt" and a "40 year veteran" or " an insider with connections" and make wild price predictions year after year, they will follow you into a black hole, singing your praises the entire time they are being led to ruin.

      I really do pity them. If the blind lead the blind, they will both fall into the ditch sums it up pretty well.

      As for me, I have enough trouble trying to figure out what is coming next week much less next year or 5 years from now. Those that stay married to their investment portfolio because of what they are convinced is coming are more often than not, proven to have been wrong.



      Delete
    4. Zhang is already your friend? You seem to make friends quickly...
      Like Eric King? Or Jim Sinclair?

      Delete
    5. The reason Zhang and Dan are friends is because they both like to write a lot so they can logically come to the wrong conclusion. They both confuse "motion with progress". By being busy writing, they think they are making tremendous progress. Perhaps, they should look at the best traders of all time. Most of them hold positions for years. Jim Chanos holds his shorts for years and makes billions. Perhaps Dan and Zhang scratch out a living, but the big money is made over a longer time frame.

      Delete
    6. Megaprophet;

      Please send your mailing address so that I can send you payment for that priceless advise. I had no idea what I have been thinking the last 25+ years. I have no idea how I ever managed to succeed without you.

      Boy howdy am I lucky you have educated me before I got to the point where I could retire from trading. Look at how much more money I can now make.

      I think I will put all my positions on this evening and go away for the next decade and see how they look when I get back from my extended vacation. Don't worry - I will make certain you get your commission check for that great advice with all that money I will make while I am away playing.

      By the way, you should understand something - you are allowed to post this sort of insulting drivel at my good pleasure. You are now being warned.

      Any more repeating of this sort of thing, where you somehow feel you can abuse my tolerance to insult me and others here who are not permanently in love with your yellow metal god, will see you here no more.

      Comprende?

      Delete
    7. Supermegaprophet. Enzeit:

      Jim Sinclair on 25 July 2008. The month before gold crashed from 1000 to 680 dollar. TRX crashed from over 5 to 1.60, GDX crashed from over 40 to 16. USDX was trading at .72 at the time today its over .80.


      **********************************************************************************************************************

      "Print at least two copies of the following points in at least 32pt font. Post one copy above your computer monitor and the other by your phone:
      1.Gold is going to $1200 in 2008.
      2.Gold is going to $1650 on or before January 14th, 2011.
      3.The US dollar is going to USDX .5200
      4.Gold is getting ready for its third attempt at $1000.
      5.The so called dollar rally is a total joke.
      6.The junior gold shares sector are where the shorts are the greatest and the bargains the best with good companies looking at 1000% gains from today's lows."

      Delete
    8. Supermegaprohet. Endzeit;

      Written on 4 July 2012.

      ********************************************************************************

      Gold will go to and above $3500. This is the most important message I have sent you since 2001.
      (…..)
      The timing is no less than one year from now to a maximum of three years from now. I believe I will be able to do that for you.

      Respectfully,
      Jim

      Delete
    9. Supermegaprophet. Endzeit:

      Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

      The temperature is over 90 degrees today. The sheep deeply appreciate their hair cuts.

      http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/clip_image002112.jpg

      http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/05/21/in-the-news-today-1544/

      That was on 21 May 2013. With friends like Jim Sinclair one does not need enemies. With enemies like Trader Dan one does not want friends.

      Delete
    10. I think i ought to include this prediction too. Jim has succesfully sold gold and his fraudulent miner right before a crash ensued at each and every crash.

      When Jimmy quipped that he responed when someone told him he was trying to herd cats, that he believe the gold people arent cats he ment it. Jim thinks their sheep to be sheered.

      **********************************************************************

      Posted February 27th, 2013 at 10:46 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.

      Dear CIGAs,

      You wants dates? Ok.

      The bet on the short of gold side is that the Sequester takes place. I have felt that the gold market’s longest period of reaction possible would end on my birthday, March 27th. That puts it directly in place of this wager in time.

      Regardless of whether or not Sequester occurs, I stand by this timing assumption that I have held since this decline started.

      Many who I know and asked me in private know this statement to be true. I know that this is read by just those that are at the heart of this decline.

      The earliest date of the end of the decline is the 28th of February and the longest period of pressure is until the 27th of March. Thereafter gold is released to the upside which will be a minimum of $3500.

      Defend yourselves because today was a wager on the Sequester occurring. Regardless, do not give away your position in either gold or shares that are fully paid for. Margin is madness in gold because the volatility is only starting.

      Please note the last interview I gave was about 9 months ago. I have a planned interview with Eric King of www.KingWorldNews.com on Friday of this week. It will have significance as it is a statement. Please remember this in the future.

      Delete
    11. The bearmarket is absolutely over. In 1993!

      Link:

      https://db.tt/9azs81o5



      Delete
    12. Jim Sinclair bearish on gold on may 1979 at the precise moment gold broke out and ran to 880 dollar.

      Jim never sold the top. Only liars sell tops.

      Link:

      https://db.tt/KvfUvzmb




      Delete
  3. CCI commodity index a strong bounce off the lows yesterday on the led by precious metals and the ags. wheat made it's 6th up day in a row on concerns of the ukraine and poor quality of euro wheat in general, and precious metals are going opposite the stock market.

    with a wacky world weekend on deck, it looks ok to hold gold and wheat longs for a portfolio hedge.

    in the corn-beans sunday nite will be important, as the weekend weather that printed and monday forecast should determine if any short covering can be induced ahead of usda report.

    NDX again testing it's 50-day MA that launched a move yesterday, the INDU testing it's 200-day. GLD HUI gap up away from 50-day MA's and get above 20-day MA's.

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  4. 77, they always find quality problems >a fifty cent rally in wheat.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hubert, are you putting your selling shoes on yet for stks?

    ReplyDelete
  6. I rather doubt Russia will have any problem obtaining plenty of (GMO free) food from their BRICS partners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Michael

      The only BRIC nation that Russia can turn to for red meat is Brazil. India and China are not going to be sending any meat to Russia - you can rest assured of that.

      Delete
    2. Many European and Asian Nations will not accept the GMO crap food from the USSA nor our crap meat.

      Delete
    3. Greg Swamp;

      I will put our meat up against any nation in the world. I have a lot of friends in the farming and in the livestock production business who would call you a piece of crap.

      What some nations do not like to accept is meat that comes from animals using growth hormones or additives like ractopamine or Zilmax, etc...

      A lot of our guys use them ( not Zilmax any more) because they are cost effective. Ractopamine helps produce the kind of lean quality in the pork that many buyers are looking for. Some argue that the pork has actually become too lean as a result and needs some more fat. Geneticists are working on that.

      You can disagree with these additives but to call them crap, is a display of childish ignorance.
      There is a lot of discussion within the industry and the difficulties that have been involved in producing meat and being able to make a profit large enough to live off when grain prices were at record levels. Our guys will respond to the demands and dictates of the market and when the science changes, so will they.

      By the way, for the record, I love GMO food and am grateful for the geneticists who have worked hard to produce some of the finest and most amazing hybrids ever developed. You can thank those guys that there is always sufficient food to feed the billions on this planet.

      Delete
    4. It's embarassing to observe how Dan, a former a sceptic of US-imperialism and the banksters, has turned into a yes-man.

      Not even a critical word about the aggression against Russia or that the White House is throwing one country after the other into chaos.

      On the other hand it means, that you can't be very successful as trader, because who would exchange his independence and freedom, to being a yes-man?


      Russia’s import ban means big business for Latin America
      http://rt.com/business/178664-latin-america-benefits-russia-ban/

      And because of the praise of GMO, which could not be worse directly from Monsanto, I'd suggest to watch the documentary "Genetic Roulette".
      Being happy to eat something that the scientists warned about? Dan wishes bon appetit...

      Delete
    5. endzeit;

      You are still around and reading here? What for? You told all of us a while back that you were done reading here and yet here you are once again.

      Here is a definition for you for the word integrity - "doing what one says that they are going to do"

      You have none so go and look it up. Meanwhile, while you are acquainting yourself with both the word and the practice, I will go and have some more GMO food, which the scientists ( no doubt the same ones that assure us about global warming) warn me not to eat.


      I will assume if I see one more post from you that your word/promise means nothing and therefore you have no integrity. In that case, I will be happy to delete any posts that you might try to submit in the future so as to help you with your struggle to obtain integrity.

      After all, that is my purpose in life - to help those who have no integrity and sense of self-respect to get some. You can thank me later - there is no charge.....

      Delete
    6. The deadender gold bugs are just not nice people. Goldbug sites generally dont accept comments, the ones that do are heavily censored and when the gold bugs stray to blogs that are run by sane people they cannot post without insulting the host.

      Money over people over truth with these guys.

      Octogenarians living in the seventies clinching gold coins in their hands visiting Q&A's.

      No wonder Jimmy has so much contempt for the "community" aka his "extended family".



      Delete
    7. Dan,
      I have never said I would stop reading your blog. Your memory is playing tricks on you.
      What for?
      Why not? I even read the bonddad blog despite the worst yes-man attitude one can imagine it contains useful info.
      And I still read kingworldnews.

      Do you only read what you agree with? As trader? ;-)
      What is probably the most important characteristic to survive in the markets? To appreciate what someone does not want to hear.

      Therefore I also appreciate your relentless bashing of the community, you was yourself part of. I guess as long as you could make money off it.
      When that changed, also your old "friends" suddenly were no longer friends. You have new friends.
      I'm interested how long they will last. I guess, until the weather changes again...

      Delete
    8. Truth over people over money. Not gold over people over truth.

      I suspect when gold turns Dan will turn bullish and the cultists will turn friendly again.



      Delete
    9. endzeit;

      I will give you the benefit of the doubt and allow that you did not state you were going to stop reading and posting here in spite of the fact that I recall that quite distinctly.

      I will give you one more opportunity to be civil but I suspect you will soon revert back to your former style which essentially habits.

      That being said, I am touched by your concern for my social life and the nature of "my friends". Honestly I had no idea that you were so grateful for my postings that you had taken it upon yourself to worry about the nature of my friendships.

      Oh and by the way, I have made so much money off of "bashing the community" ( as you put it ) that I have lost track of it all. This website generates so many gazillions of dollars that I heard it on good authority that the feds were looking into it to deal with the burgeoning national debt. I will let you know how all that works out.

      What I can tell you that it has "made" is countless emails from some of the most vile, most contemptible, most hateful people I have ever been exposed to. They are cultists, pure and simple and are shining examples of why the term "gold bug" is rightly used with the contempt that it carries.

      It is one thing to be an advocate of honest money and to hold gold as insurance. It is another to be a vile gold bug. They are a detestable life form and I have the emails to prove it.

      Oh and by the way, when the market weather does change again, and it will, I will try to remain as objective as I am at the moment.


      Delete
  7. Hilarious.

    CRB Index has had one of the fastest, steepest selloffs in recent history.

    And despite Gaza, Ukraine, Ebola, etc., NFLX closed up 4.45% to close at the high tick of the day, up to $445 after a low of $65 in 2012.

    Now which one of the 45-year veterans and acclaimed eggspurts predicted THAT?

    None.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Mark, DOW 25-30K by next year at this time? I think so. These markets are MASTER manipulators for it is their job. Believe the Unbelievable and make a Fortune...

    ReplyDelete
  9. I have an occasional tendency to lapse into unnecessary cynicism and sarcastically lambasting people I hold as fools

    it's a personal failing, which perhaps tells more about my character weaknesses than it does about the fundamentally human shortcomings of those with whom I happen to disagree from time to time. However, I take solace in the fact that I am not the only person with such a personality flaw, but that I would at least, in principle, like to wean myself off such arrogance and verbal aggression. That and the fact that those I seek to ridicule are often total w@nkers.

    But today my contrition and sense of shamed humiliation have reached an altogether new level, as I have come to realise that I am in the presence of a superior lifeform, whose intellect and powers of reasoning are far beyond anything my Neanderthal brain could ever understand. Somebody (maybe) once remarked that any scientific discovery which is sufficiently advanced to be truly game-changing will be perceived as nothing short of magic, and it is this kind of Road-to-Damascus awe in which I now stand: I have no other words to describe it - what follows is surely not just truly inspired, but perhaps even divinely so:

    For it hath just been reveal-ed unto us Lesser Mortals (i.e. non-Americans, steve) that the initial pulse on silver is well over $60 after the buy signal was recently triggered on the long term MACD.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/7_Major_Buy_For_Silver,_David_Stockman_Chart_%26_Market_Turmoil.html

    BOY, AM I THICK, OR WHAT? There was I, grovelling on my copious belly in the dirt, wondering why the sainted James Turk's recent prediction of $50 Silver hadn't come true (maybe it has, but the charts have been painted over like some Soviet Politburo photograph? - blame Putin for that) - when it was headed for $60 all along!

    Do any of you guys remember the movie "Something About Mary" (with Cameron Diaz)? Personally, I think that is one of the most intelligently witty movie scripts ever written - way, way above the more obvious hair gel jokes - but the point which comes to mind is the psycho who decides to market a workout called "6 Minute Abs, because not only is this a more attractive proposition than "7 Minute Abs", if it doesn't work, he'll give you the extra minute for free....

    And so here we are, with these new advanced lifeforms who tell us, hand on heart, not that Silver may perhaps recover from its current teenage blues, but that the buy signal has already been triggered. HOW could I have missed that? I hang my head in shame, and will henceforth sacrifice burnt offerings at a simple shrine I have erected in my bathroom to these new divinities.

    Either that, or these idiots are even more stupid and devious than I have hitherto believe them to be, and even my levels of incisive sarcasm are inadequate to do them full justice. You decide - I'm off to stack up on Silver just in case. (Not)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zhang
      About your shrine. Don't forget to flush.

      Sorry folks could not resist. Too perfect a setup.

      Delete
  10. Thats funny Zhang! The only thing to say about silver is that is bounced off its 63% fib retracement at 19.70 ish (calc from a low of 18.61 to a high of 21.53). That was positive but hardly an indication it is heading back to 50...It is stuck in the mud - no follow through after yesterday's bounce.

    Live cattle and lean hogs are getting slaughtered with Mark's proverbial pole ax today...

    ReplyDelete
  11. Cattle and hogs

    Another example of how commodities crater with such ease.

    On their own weight.

    Without any need for margin hikes or "words" from the Fed.

    For this reason and this reason alone, we will never, ever experience inflation ever again.

    Because if commodities fall this easily on their own weight,

    Imaging the epic, catastrophic decline you can expect once Yellen utters something about "price stability" and "inflation mandates" once the CRB Index gets a little on the high side.

    Once again, we are in the midst of the most glorious financial market times ever experienced, whereby:

    S & P 500 over 1900

    Interest rates collapsed near decade lows

    Zero inflation, none, nada, zip.....

    Fed now has huge ammo in the chamber for more "unconventional measures" to start the "Wash, Rinse, Repeat" cycle yet again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are getting beat down pretty hard. But one word I use with caution is"never" (the other is "always"). If/when velocity picks up, inflation will creep in, maybe not Weimar style but higher prices. And when that happens the Fed will not be able to raise rates significantly because of the huge debt. You are right - it is nowhere to be seen at this point in time and because of that, would not be surprised to see another FED party invitation come out after QE3.

      Delete
  12. Each to their own, and if you prefer to divine information from tealeaves, seaweed, pine cones, animal entrails or whatever, then Good On You - I cast no opinion, and I wish you well

    But please, there IS no such thing as a 63% Fibonacci level; the majors are all based off 0.618, as follows:

    0.618 × 0.618 = 0.382

    0.382 + 0.618 = 1

    1 / 0.618 = 1.618

    1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618

    etc.

    Secondary harmonics can be observed around 0,382 x 0.618 = 0.236 and 0.382 × 0.382 = 0.146 but in the strict sense, that's it

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Post- I stand corrected for the typo (63). Meant 62% but technically yes it is 61.8%. I would certainly not worship these retracement levels but they are interesting to follow at times and worth watching just because many other traders do along with other technical indicators. Wishing you well also mate!

      Delete
  13. Zhang and Mark; Your friends are not 100% worthless over at KWN. Louise Yamada is a fine technician and is usually featured once a month or so.Take care as we have a full moon at 11:10 A.M. Reno time Sunday and I am expecting huge action. BUT, I could be wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Yes, Steve, but her analysis is worthless when it is distorted through 180 degrees by KWN and

    "we would await a sustained penetration of either the resistance at 1,327 or the support at 1,280 to indicate the potential for a more tradable trend.

    becomes

    "Louise Yamada - Gold, Silver & Other Key Metals On The Move"

    There are 3 possible interpretations:

    1. Eric is stupid
    2. Eric thinks we are stupid
    3. Both

    ReplyDelete
  15. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/6_Louise_Yamada_-_Gold,_Silver_%26_Other_Key_Metals_On_The_Move.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Eric and his headlines are really, very, very lame and misleading; he is grasping at straws. And his interviews with no last name donkeys is really tired also.

      Delete
  16. Endzeit

    Please "Come on over here if you think you're hard enough" - I have nothing to hide, and nothing to fear from gutter Trolls like you; here are my credentials

    Sg.linkedin.com/in/treasuryrisk

    now lets see you Man Up and show us who you are behind the cowardly bickering pseudonym

    ReplyDelete
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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    2. Bla bla "bankster" bla bla "manipulation" bla bla "paper gold" bla bla "ponzi" bla bla.

      Endzeit not a single post you write speaks of a pleasant or intelligent personality. Your just a sour loser.

      Delete
  17. and please add Megaprophet" to that invitation

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Post; You have very impressive credentials for sure. On a lighter subject I have heard that the Singaporean Chinese Ladies are the prettiest. True? Also, do you know Jim Rogers?

      Delete
  18. Would the Education Administrator in Facilities Services in from Phoenix who just viewed my LinkedIn profile like to please introduce themselves to the Group : https://www.linkedin.com/vsearch/p?orig=WVMX&keywords=Education+Administrator&f_G=us%3A620&f_I=122&trk=mirror-profile-memberlist-search

    ReplyDelete
  19. Steve, I could't possibly comment on the meits of Singaporean ladies, as I only have eyes for my (Chinese) wife www.linkedin.com/in/zhangshulan

    ReplyDelete
  20. Does she have any single sisters?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Looks like Tokyo has had their selling shoes on, as both daily and weekly Nikkei charts have flashed sell signals this week, barring of course any kind of Friday late reversal, which I have to say looks very remote as I get ready for bed.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Koos Jansen asked the same question ; her big sister is a Treasury Dealer at Bank of China

    ReplyDelete
  23. Been a long one for me; gotta get some zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Good nite all.

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  24. So....the stall zone of 1950-2000 suspected for SP500 was the right one, along with my indicators, which I should learn to trust a bit more without hesitating.
    Now, SP500 is interesting, because this is the last day of a 2week candle which must close above 1900 to remain in the upwards long-term channel.
    More importantly, on monday, the base of the channel will be at 1910.

    This means there is a big risk here that this 2 year upward trend is interrupted now.
    What means interrupted, and how am I supposed to play it?
    First, the trend is not yet broken, so I put a small long order at exactly 1900 i.e exactly the support of this week, but I'm afraid it won't hold this time, as the trend has been here for so long, and with all those geopolitical events.
    So my stop loss is here very close. I put a long order also because it is the last day of this 2 week candle, so I will know very soon what's going on, and if SP500 doesn't close around 1910 today, I'll be out as well.
    My biggest opportunity is not here.
    I'm going to simply "read my book" here, because I'm neither genius nor original.
    My book says that in case we break the strong trend down, then prices should (probability, not certainty!!) somehow eventually rise a LAST time, and be able to form a kind of double top, even possibly go above the historical highs (1985) before we finally dive.
    So...I will try to be patient here and not short now.
    Because the likelihood that prices then bounce and rise above 1900 is high. And it would be hard to put a stop loss very far from my short entry point.

    Conclusion : if we break under 1900 today or close under 1910 today, this scenario activates itself. I will be patient and wait (maybe weeks...) for SP500 to bounce one last time towards 2000 again. It is only then that I will be looking for an opportunity to short this market big time.

    Reminder : I'm sharing my tactics here, to follow if it's working in the present case. I'm not suggesting you do the same. Trading is a solitary activity imho. It's nice to share in order to progress and integrate some other people's tools. But one's trading decisions must remain one's own.
    Have a nice day,

    ReplyDelete
  25. The bias & bullsh*t over at Zerhodege continues

    Take a look at this chart: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140807_China1_0.jpg

    that's pretty noisy data, right. The central trend is fairly clear, but the month-to-month gyrations are extreme. As this is quite clearly a "normal" situation, we shouldn't really draw to many inferences from a single month's data?

    Naaah - come to think of it - Why not?. Why pass up a good excuse to take a pop at those awful Commies

    So, take your pick:

    1. Data Spikes Down: "Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record ..... Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss ..... This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record...... our simple question is - didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? ..... the massive imports of copper - to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans ..... not good for the credit unwind"
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/chinese-exports-collapse-leading-2nd-largest-trade-deficit-record

    or

    2. Data Spikes Up: "Filed in the "are you kidding us" folder... miracles of goalseek.xls and fake trade invoicing ....... the Chinese government would have us believe .... It would appear - as we noted previously, that China is up to its old tricks... .... China's exports have been overstated by Chinese data... the hub of fake invoicing - Hong Kong

    EITHER WAY - CHINA = BAD NEWS, RIGHT?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-07/china-trade-balance-explodes-record-high-july-exports-double-expectations

      Delete
  26. Well, I thought I'd be stopped out but the SP500 is managing a kind of bounce for now. If it manages to close above 1910 indeed, bulls will manage to stay within the upwards channel, so, after all, who knows...maybe my long trade at 1900 stands a chance.

    Eur Usd I hoped twice for a bounce hitting the ema15 to add up to my short position, but we didn't even go there. For now, it is at 1.3430 and it is my target today.

    Not active in other markets at the moment (discussed here anyway).

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Hubert , what are you talking about ? the cash or sept futures , my target for a reversal is a close above 1918 in the sept contract to confirm reversal .. as for gold it looks heavy here , i tend to sell on geopolitical , if it closes strong , may through in a punch or two

      Delete
    2. I'm talking about the futures contract.
      Here is the chart.
      http://i61.tinypic.com/35k20qe.jpg

      Due to the fact that a support is never exactly spot on and accurate, with today's lows at 1895, one can also trace that support a bit differently and consider that next 2 weeks, support will be at 1900. It's always an area, not a single price, of course.

      Delete
    3. P.S : I chose to trace the channel this way because it is parallel to a linear ma20 and the Bollinger Bands.
      Frankly, it's an amazing TA chart to me, that's why I've been following it with you.
      The opportunity to go long now is that the channel goes upwards, and that this is the last day of the current candle...stop loss can quickly be raised to my entry level, respecting the chart.

      Now, with all this volatility, maybe we will close the market at 1880, so, I'll just leave the screen for the rest of the day, and we'll see this evening how it sorted out.

      Delete
  27. Pre-market even stranger than usual. MCD earnings bad. Air Strikes in Iraq. Gold hardly twitched overnight and Futures now up on press releases from Russia?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Oh...my. Bo Polny is at it again. Stocks to crash in 2015. $2000 gold by year end 2014, on it's way to $10,000.

    Gee whiz, I might as well just toss out all rational analysis and just go bathing in the Kool-Aid. Get rich the EZ Way while the world burns.

    La dee Frickin Da!

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-on-2015-the-coming-inflationary-spike-deflationary-bear-market-cycle-that-devastates-the-world/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The funny part is that even the commenters at a nutbag site like silverdoctors are mocking Bo now.

      Delete
    2. Eric O; your boy Bo is just a novice; only been involved in mkts 10 years or so, and has thus not seen much

      Delete
  29. Dan, of late I am having a helluva time with the word verifications? Anybody else bellaching like me?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The numbers I have been getting are EZ. Maybe Google thinks your suspect!

      Delete
    2. Mike I get letters from another planet it seems lately; for a while it was easy with photo sphere

      Delete
  30. a quite interesting interview over at TRNN regarding the Vulture and Argentine Debt; check it out

    ReplyDelete
  31. Out 50% of SP500 long at 1927.
    Have a nice weekend :)

    ReplyDelete

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