"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Knock, Knock, Knock... Here it Comes once more

By that, I am referring to the US Dollar, as portrayed by the USDX. The greenback is once again knocking on the door at the top of a nearly year long trading range. That door is up near the 81.65 level. The bottom of the range is near 79.

The week is not over yet but this far the last month has seen the Dollar firm and garnering strength as more and more traders/investors are coming around to the view that the Fed will be the first among the Western industrialized nations to raise interest rates. Today's Service Sector ISM reading did nothing to disabuse them of that notion as it was very strong; stronger than expected in actuality.

Here's the chart...



If the Dollar can manage to finally put up a Weekly CLOSE above that zone noted, it can easily run another full point and should be able to even make a push to 83. We'll see what we get come Friday of this week.

The number sent the Euro reeling. It fell through last week's low and is currently sitting right on support near 1.3370. Failure to hold here should allow a move to the stronger level of support centered near 1.330.


Once again, for the umpteenth time, the usual price predictions from the same culprits ( who never seem to tire of pulling this sort of stunt ) that silver was about ready to experience a massive short squeeze any day now have failed to materialize. I am pleading with any of the readers here at my site who continue to give these charlatans the least bit of credibility to please ignore them and study the price charts for yourself.



Here is a simple fact - they no more know the direction or the timing of the next move in silver, or for that matter any other market,  than anyone else on this planet. That they hold themselves out as those who do is cause for embarrassment and for shame but then again, when it comes to puffing up themselves like peacocks , some have no shame. Ignore them and let them go on making fools out of themselves but do not base your investment strategy around the claims of such people. They CANNOT BE UNBIASED because their livelihood depends on creating demand for their products or services. Remember that.

The charts are your friends. You may not like them or may not agree with the charts, but fighting them is a hopelessly quixotic errand that will cost you very, very dearly. I have been at this business for over a quarter of a century and while there are some markets that I know very well and trade daily, I still do not have the temerity to suggest that I know exactly when they are going to make a move or to what extent. If I did, Bill Gates would have a rival for one of the world's richest men.

The best of us are still mere mortals. Some have more experience than others and are perhaps a bit wiser but we are not omniscient. There is only ONE who is.

As said many times here before, the grace of humility is much more befitting of a successful trader than arrogance and unbounded hubris.

13 comments:

  1. "The battle will be fought here".

    And lost - as always.

    You just know it will go up when he posts that drivel.

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    Replies
    1. Not only that the chart showed the battle to be at .79 not .80 like Mr JS was indicating on mineset. Since we all have experience now and can draw simple trend lines we know better - but charlatans make money on newbie's eventually thrown on the conveyor belt, and they know there is always a steady stream of them coming in.

      Delete
  2. Hello $12 Silver and $55 oil...

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  3. "Without belaboring this point, we should also note that every mid-term election year since 1998 has seen the SPX fall below its 200-dma and turn negative YTD before rallying into year-end." (http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/)

    good chance the eur/usd, the precious metals, and the cci continuous commodity index all bottom at the same time. august is thin and it's time to get alot of dry powder ready for great opportunities!

    on the ags the usual soybean/corn ratio is 2.5 so that would put nov beans down to 9.00 to get back to 'normal' or will corn go under 3.00. corn basis is down to 2.08 in some areas already and will see pressure as the possibly 'record' harvest approaches.
    chicago wheat the 550 is again in play on the continuous chart.

    cheers!

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  4. Much sad resignation in Turdland today. The saddest part is people there finally admitting they got it totally wrong, and STILL insisting that it was "the right thing to do", anyway--as if there was some moral dimension to the markets.

    As Dan has said so many times, the markets just do not care.

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  5. Nomen omen est.

    This bullmarket has a chance of resuming when Turd closes his site down.

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  6. You poor fools

    don't you know that Down is the new Up?, follow me, if you will, over the cliff:

    "Stephen Leeb also said investors must be overweight physical gold and silver in order to make it through the coming chaos ..... you’ve got to be overweighted gold, because it will become part of the new reserve currency, and also silver. "
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/5_Spark_To_Light_The_World_On_Fire_-_Overweight_Gold_%26_Silver.html

    so there you have it - from the same Whorse's Mouth that only 7 short weeks ago told you that within 6 weeks Silver was going to be at $50/0z. I am coming to suspect that these muppets might be useful as a contrarian leading indicator

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. Say WHAT?

    I sense that you are not entirely convinced by my argument above? What, not even by the silver statuette on a surf board gliding into orbit around Uranus? Boy!, are you guys a tough crowd to play to! OK, let's try this -

    "I continue to believe that gold and silver and their respective shares are the true safe havens in such a scenario. And the fact that they are significantly undervalued due to the aggressive price suppression activities of the past 3 years just strengthens the case. ..... so I tend to ignore the current weakness in both metals. In reality, the downside is minimal at this point, and the upside is open-ended"
    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/5_Embry_-_The_Most_Dangerous_%26_Frightening_Period_In_History.html

    There - are you with me now? Please do try to keep up!. As I have said before, it's all a trade-off between Utility Value and Scarcity: take, for instance, my left foot. I am assuming that you will agree that it is generally accepted that feet are fairly useful things, that the supply of available (above-ground) feet is growing at only a steady and predictable manner (absent "paper feet" and other derivatives used to support Straddles), and that, statistically, the average human being has slightly less than two (accounting for birth defects, congenital disabilities, amputees, lepers and mermaids)

    My left foot is unique and remains in pristine condition, despite having served me well for over 50 years - to me, it's value is extremely high, even though it's "fundamentals" (as a particularly gristly piece of dog meat) are not inspiring. It's inherent Utility is amply demonstrated by the simple fact is that I can turn it as required, allowing me to dance e.g. a fake Samba, the bogus foxtrot, a con Tango and, with a little flexing at the ankle, to even go temporarily into Backwardation

    Why is there not a queue of Asian investors lining up wishing to bid for my left foot, given it's Utility, unique Scarcity and the apparent pent-up market demand for spare appendages? (a veritable "coiled spring" as manufactures of prosthetic devices like to call it).

    I think we all know the answer, don't we, Children? Just as the Evil Emperors in China once bound little girl's feet, so my left foot has been heinously suppressed by TPTB to the point where it is now both flatter (i.e. less volatile) and much further down my left leg than it rightly should be. If there were any Justice in this world, then my left foot should in fact be attached somewhere above my shoulders, but due to the relentless daily capping - or "socking" as I prefer to call it - it is held down.

    Frankly, I myself am quite happy with this situation, insofar as, if my left foot were to suddenly skyrocket "to da moon" this might put me in a physically rather awkward position; however, I trust you will agree that my personal discomfort is no reason for cynically distorting the value of an entire Asset Class, and that, in any sane world, people from around the World (and not just cannibals from Papua New Guinea) should be lining up, hacksaw in one hand and a large wad of cash in the other. It is my unfortunate duty to tell you, Dear Readers, that they are not ....

    As with Feet, so with Silver, and when the other shoe drops, in the absence of any firm underlying support, this unbalanced market is gonna come crashing down under its own weight, bringing investors to their knees and desperate for the next leg up

    You have been warned

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    Replies
    1. Zhang;

      Thanks for another fun post to read.
      Here is the tipoff in that guys fallacious reasoning:

      "And the FACT ( my emphasis) that they are significantly undervalued".

      What FACT? There is no such FACT that exists except in this man's brain. The real fact is that the value of silver is EXACTLY what the market believes it to be at this time. That FACT is that silver has value at slightly less than $20. If the value of the metal changes tomorrow, it will either rise or fall from its current value.

      I continued to be appalled by the ignorance of some people in this generation. Ignorance, combined with hubris. Because this man believes silver is too cheap, the entire market is therefore WRONG and only he is right ( and of course, those who agree with his ignorance).

      Simply astonishing....

      Delete
  9. Words of wisdom Dan! Looks like silver is acting more like an industrial metal today. Maybe silver will find support at 19.80?

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  10. Embry is deeper in denial than an Egyptian submarine; some people refer to this kind of commentary as "confirmation bias" but I prefer to keep it sikple and just call it "Bullsh*t"

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  11. It seems I spoke too soon

    Our friends over on Turd Fergusons "Island of Misfit Toys" have now discovered that - in addition to killing vampires - Silver is also a cure for the Ebola virus http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/422282#comment-422282

    No doubt the price will rise .....,

    ReplyDelete

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