"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Thursday, July 10, 2014

Selling Hits Gold Late in Session; Miners hit hard

It did not take long for the longs in the gold mining sector to start a wave of profit taking. That came in when the mining indices could not extend their early-in-the-session gains. As a matter of fact, the opening print on many issues was the high for the day, or very near the high of the day. From that point forward, the shares drifted lower most of the session until they began to accelerate lower during the last hour of trading.

The result is a SHORT-TERM sell signal on the price chart although no major damage has been done to the uptrend at this point.

As long as this particular index holds near the 43 level, the retreat in price will be seen as a correction in an ongoing move higher. Just like this index did late last month, it could be merely pausing to gather its breath while it undergoes some consolidation of its recent gains. One would not want to see the index fall below 40 however if they are inclined to be bullish. That would shift the momentum back in favor of the bears.

The HUI on the other hand, just missed putting in what is termed a "Bearish Engulfing Pattern". It was only the appearance of some buying right near the closing bell that prevented the full formation from occurring. That being said, the near term price action is bearish.

I did not note it on the chart but there is a price gap coming in near and just below the 240 level. that might be a place to look for some buying support in the various shares that make up this index. Failing there, the index will look to try to hold above 232. If that fails, then we go to the gap region noted. Bulls will now need to extend prices past today's high to regain their advantage.


  1. Gaza, ISIS, Ukraine, Portuguese banks, inflation concerns and the poorest GDP print in living memory, and we are still $40 or more short of where we were on 14th - 7th March

    I will be absolutely delighted to be proved wrong, and to see Gold spiral into the stratosphere, but right now I'm afraid I just don't see it - volume has been pretty lame since Yellen gaffed about inflation and we broke upwards from the May - June range, and the forward curve is now firmly in contango.

    Meanwhile, a $7 blip only produces more of this kind of tripe: www.silverdoctors.com/6-figure-gold-marshall-swing-releases-the-most-shockingly-bullish-gold-silver-forecast-ever/

  2. I am uneasy here on the gold and silver stocks. They (certain issues) have had quite a run so far this year. The Russell is getting killed and it seems to be starting a ripple effect. I still need $1345 cleared on Gold and $22.25 cleared on Silver before I am back in. I am waiting it out.

  3. the XAU GLD TLT had the same daily candle more or less. the look is 'any red dead',,so if they rally tomorrow the bullish case is intact.

    volume in GC/SI futures strong at ~165k/50k supports the bullish case if they can get it green tomorrow.

    in commodity futures lots of turns can be seen off option expirations and last trading days, a nice calendar:


  4. Gold : so the fibonacci level I'm watching is at 1337.7 i.e the 1335-1340 area and gold is still in contact with it at the close. That bothers me, because as long as we are there, this resistance is still active and may indicate a top in this rangebound oscillations within 1180-1435 range. Besides, I hate being on the defensive having missed the initial entry point at 1240. Now is second time I'm entering via a long stop order, which is really not my favorite configuration. And there is this big selling on the miners, usually a "Timbeeer!" signal regarding gold. On the other hand, both bollinger are back on the way up though, along with ma20 and ema15 not far below, providing support in the 1320 area. CDur on the daily time unit gave a first buying signal from its low area further to today's rise...so I think I'll stay a bit to watch and see, with a stop loss already put under the ma20. For sure buying stop kind of situations are always difficult for me.

    Silver : OBVD is gaining ground and at the upper limit of the resistance level I've been monitoring. Let's see if a little push further will provoke the disband I'm expecting on the short side. Maybe I'm totally wrong here, so once again ma20 going up is a nice place to use to consider a stop loss not too far below. But who knows, maybe if we get one more little step higher, we'll quickly make it to 22. I'm staying as well, ready for a small loss here as well as for gold.

    SP500 : nice bounce and close above daily ma20 / ema15...all the job must be done again for the bears. Corrections continue to be quickly bought, and my hopes to see very short term drops propagate a bit further are at the moment not enough to make it happen :) Tomorrow's weekly close will be important on that time unit regarding where MACD ends vs its propagation axis, etc...


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