“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


To continue following Trader Dan, please sign up for Trader Dan's World at the link on the sidebar to receive a 1 month, no obligation, trial membership



Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Godzilla Destroys Tokyo

I thought that might be a catchy title because what happens across the markets, whenever we get one of these Fed Chair Testimony days, is more like what happens to Tokyo every time Godzilla goes on one of his rages.

Most people think they know what is going to be said and when the Fed Chair surprises or disappoints, then we get all sorts of market reactions.

The "surprise" today ( and I am hesitant to call it that) was that Janet Yellen and the rest of the Fed do not seem particularly worried about inflation. Ms. Yellen rightfully ( in my opinion ) pointed to the labor markets and the slack that remains in there. Frankly I wonder why anyone was the least bit surprised about that. It is widely known that while the labor markets are slowly, incrementally improving, they are anything but robust right now.

Also, take yet another look at the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which I have been keenly focusing on for the last week or so. It is plunging lower.


With the collapse in grain prices, and now with the crude oil complex surrendering much of its "geopolitical or fear" premium, energy prices are moving lower.

Those two big sectors have pulled the entire commodity index into negative territory on the year. With slack remaining in the labor markets and with sinking commodity prices, it is difficult to make the case that inflation is a serious concern.

This is what has concerned me about gold. It has moved higher recently solely based on geopolitical fears ( I am including the Portuguese bank situation in there) but as far as an inflation hedge, how can one argue that one needs to buy gold to protect against inflation right now when the commodity sector as a whole is moving lower? Those geopolitical events can provide support for the metal but once those events fade from traders' minds, then there is not much left to support these higher prices.

You can point to the Dollar but like so many of the major currencies right now, it is stuck in a range trade and is certainly not collapsing lower.

Some will buy gold as protection or a type of safe haven against falling equity prices but so far, stocks while they have bent, have not broken.

As to be expected on a day during which gold is falling in price, we will get the usual " someone is dumping huge quantities of gold" nonsense, as if somehow that is evidence that the feds are knocking the gold price lower,  but if the market perception, aided by the Fed Chairwoman, is that inflation is not a serious problem, then it is to be expected that gold would be sold off. If the entire commodity complex is moving lower, why not gold? We could all make the same breathless exclamation, "Someone is dumping huge quantities of crude oil on the market". Does that imply that some nefarious evildoer is working to depress the price of crude oil? Of course not!

These continuous, simplistic notions that pop up like mushrooms after a summer rain every single time gold makes a sharp move lower, do a huge disservice to objective market observers and betray a naivety that borders on ignorance. Markets are constantly in a state of flux and perceptions change daily, sometimes within the day. Why should we expect markets to be stagnant? That is what makes trading/investing so very challenging. Perceptions are constantly changing and we have to adjust to these changes if we are to be successful. One gets the idea in reading the stuff from some of the gold perma bull sites, that nothing ever changes in markets in regards to how players see things on any given day.

When markets change - good traders change. It is that simple.

Take a look at the weekly chart of corn and you will see what I mean when I speak of falling grain prices. Corn prices are at a near 4 year low. There is a good possibility that they could fall even further as it has now entered what was a former congestion zone back in 2010. The bottom of that zone is near $3.40.

This will have big implications for food costs as it will work to eventually bring down meat and poultry prices later this year and certainly by Q1 2015.



Crude fell below the psychologically important $100/bbl level today. It just so happens that this level coincides very closely to the 200 day moving average, a big technical level, so the downside breach of $100 is not only a psychological blow to this market, but it is also a big technical blow. Crude is currently holding in the first support zone noted. If it loses the lower edge of that and cannot recover it, it should fall another $1.00.





I will get some more up later on... it is a bit busy right now....



69 comments:

  1. Well call me crazy but I am long Gold right now. Got into NUGT yesterday. Is a 3 year correction (of over 30% lost) enough? Is the bottom in gold equities already in? I think so but am mindful of going back to $1K on Gold is possible as anything is possible. No Risk no Reward. GLTA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After a small loss on crude oil I booked some profit on DUST.

      You may be right but these are wasting assets and the market can out wait you.

      Delete
  2. Never before in world history has the public ever had it so good:

    1) Collapsing commodity prices, assuring us of easy to obtain and affordable food prices for years to come. Forget about the drought, that doesn't matter any longer.

    2) Soaring stock markets creating huge wealth building for the middle class, improving their fortunes and bringing them closer to retirement

    3) Giant handouts and freebies such as EBT cards, disability payments, thereby keeping the poor people from revolting, and comfortably on the couch watching the NBA draft and the NFL pre-season coming up.

    4) Virtually unlimited capability to print "Infinite Fiat" whenever it is necessary, thus making the "business cycle" obsolete. More paper solves problems, and causes commodity prices to crash at the drop of a hat.

    5) Insatiable appetite for U.S. Treasuries, Muni-bonds, Corporates, etc. making it essentially cost free to borrow, spend, and borrow even more. That is the cornerstone of the "financial utopia" we live in.

    In fact, it is becoming so easy, the Fed no longer has to talk down commodity prices or interest rates, they now seem to fall all by themselves on their own weight.

    And as long as cheap money is available and gasoline and food prices are constantly held in check by frequent and periodic "mini-bear markets", there is ZERO chance of a stock market crash.

    Gerald Celente must be puking up blood right about now, watching gold tank and "Too Big To Fail" banks like JPM soaring.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for the comments Dan.

      Good take on it Mark.
      There's little to disagree with there except maybe the ZERO % chance of a market crash you mention as being impossible.
      Not sure I'd go that far but I do realize they'll do ANYTHING within their power to keep the system solvent and manageable.

      The "imminent collapse" of everything predictions by all the Nostradamus' out there (Celente etc) are looking more like Chicken Little types with each passing month/quarter/ year.

      While things are far (very far!) from perfect in the U.S. it could certainly be a hell of a lot worse like it is in many other countries.

      The 'ole USD/UST has lots of tread left on it to the chagrin of some doomers and hardcore 'bugs.
      The same group that thinks eventual rate hikes are IMPOSSIBLE.

      Ha! Get ready for that to happen when you least expect it.


      Delete
  3. By the way, next time Dan shows me the specs overweighted in crude or energy futures, I'm going to short those products in a huge way.

    Way to go Dan!! You picked the top within 24 hours, crude prices have gone straight down ever since! About 13 days in a row!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark;

      Like I said before, all we can do is to look for "potential" setups and then wait for a technical validation. I have seen these specs pile into markets in such a way that makes your head buzz and yet the market will keep rocketing higher. Once the 105 level, which had served as resistance on the way up failed to hold as support, that was all she wrote for the hedge fund longs in this market.

      Now we wait to see how it acts here around the $100 level. It did manage to bounce a full 100 points off the 99 level, which is the first level of support. The market may want to consolidate here as a result of that price action today. I am certainly not ready to say crude is going to rocket higher from this level. I do not know what the demand is going to be like as we move ahead.

      The XLE is weak today so it is not giving us any indication as of yet that the selling is completely wrapped up. I am watching trying to get a read on it.

      What I do know is that a falling crude oil price is not friendly towards gold.

      Delete
    2. Regarding crude, looks like there was profit taking right at $99. Last time crude was at this level in May, it took 3 or 4 days to figure out that it wanted to go higher. Not that history will repeat itself, but would not be surprised if the $99 level tested again to see if it will punch through below. Summer driving season isn't behind us yet but wouldn't know it by looking at the recent price drop. If the driving season is a factor in the weeks ahead, maybe these "lower" prices will persist for awhile. But then again I am no crude oil expert....

      Delete
    3. Wonder if crude's dip to $99 yesterday was linked to the talk about the cease fire in the Gaza??? As missle fire resumed crude firmed up.

      Delete
  4. Dan,

    You briefly touched on FX and their tight ranges but it seems the dollar is slowly starting to gather steam, is this what you are seeing as well?

    Thanks as always
    JL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jesse;

      when it comes to these currencies, I am hesitant to go too far out on a limb right now because of the wild reversals that they can make during this particular phase.

      Let's say it this way - I am negative on the Euro but really want to see it close below the 1.35 level to feel that a trending move lower is underway. Even at that, it may just grind lower.

      The flip side is for the Dollar ( USDX) to close above 81 for starters. If we get that in combination with a break below 1.35 in the Euro, that would turn the Dollar chart bullish in my view and the Euro chart bearish.

      Delete
    2. Not a chance... china is now in euro buyin mode... and dollar dumping mode ... and by the time gold skyrockets within hours... many here will be disappointed, dollar is here , ruling , because there're still confidence and extreme support from te fed... while dollar is not back upped by anything, except a 'a guarantee to pay debt' ... the war is not over yet ... u may win battles one after another ... yet the ultimate score is the war ... or a series of the last battles ... so dont be too happy, the ultimate outcome is not in sight yet

      Delete
  5. None of those are the reasons for why gold and oil are moving down. Oil is moving down because it's due for an intermediate degree correction. 3 weeks ago when oil was above $107 I warned this was coming. Any asset can only go up for so long before a profit taking event begins. As that profit taking event progresses traders start to invent reasons for why price is going down. The simple reason is that price is going down because traders have convinced themselves there is a reason that price is falling and they are scared. Eventually sentiment resets, we run out of sellers and the bottom is formed. Then another leg up begins.

    Oil is very deep in it's cycle and due to fom that bottom any day now. Once it does then back up it will go and I expect during this next intermediate cycle oil will break out of this three year consolidation and rally into the $120-$130 zone during the second half of the year.

    Gold on the other hand is very late in it's daily cycle and also in the grip of a profit taking event. Again nothing has changed fundamentally it's just that gold rallied for 27 days and needs to take a break and reset sentiment and recharge for the next leg up.

    Gold is leading oil by the way. Gold formed its intermediate bottom at the beginning of June. Oil is just now completing its intermediate correction.

    I expect we will get a bottom either later this week or early next week then the second half of the year we are going to see an even more explosive move higher in commodity prices.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is zero chance of WTI going to $120-130 in H2

      Delete
    2. LOL they said there was zero chance of oil going down below $100 three weeks ago. They said that gold was toast on May 27th.

      This is what intermediate cycle declines do. They convince everyone that the trend is going to continue forever. They never do. My cycles analysis tells me when to look for that trend change when everyone else is looking the wrong way.

      Delete
  6. GDX getting killed as we speak as the weak knee specs bail out and run for the hills.

    Poor General Jim must be furious at the huge wealth increase for Jamie Dimon today as JPM trades at $58, while TRX stock languishes at $2.30 like some penny stock.

    "But Wait!!! The London Gold Vaults Are Empty!!"

    "Load Up!!"

    "Any Minute Now, I Swear"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is huge institutional money going into GDX today. That's what big money does. They buy on down days when all the retail traders are freaking out and selling.

      Gold is going to form a bottom any day now and when it does the second leg up in miners is going to be a sight to see.

      Very few will be able to pull the trigger because their emotions will be telling them that metals and miners are going lower. That's the time when you have to pull the trigger. The hardest trade is almost always the right trade.

      Delete
    2. Gary how do you know its not institutions with differing opinions buying and selling?

      Delete
    3. Gary. Like a guy called bullionairo on the yahoo trx message board has been saying for 8 years:

      BWAAAAAHAAAHAAAAA!

      I can only hope for you and anyone that reads this that you dont really believe this shit.

      Delete
    4. You didn't believe me on June 5th when I said go to full positions in metals either. You just keep making the same mistakes over and over.

      Like 90% of traders you get bearish at bottoms and bullish at tops. Me on the other hand I use my cycle tools to buy bottoms and sell tops.

      Delete
  7. http://www.gold2020forecast.com/

    Bo Polny will become a trading god this year...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I kind of doubt there is enough time to make it to $2000 before the end of the year.

      That being said Bo hasn't hit on any of his calls lately. lately he's just made the same mistake as most analysts. He gets bearish at bottoms and bullish at tops.

      Delete
  8. Hubert, special good news for all of us; your boy the junior birdman from Newport beach is discounting his services down to 13k. He references a very tired story about Gann's wheat call and on and on. If anybody thinks there is anything to Gann, call the boys in San Diego, but don't be surprised if the call is not answered very quickly. At least Prechter gave up on trading his own $ 30 years ago and just decided to be an Elliott peddler, pure and simple. No promises, no tears, just pay me. lol

    ReplyDelete
  9. no inflation....all groceries are up ...gas...up....fees and taxes...up....No inflation....wtf

    ReplyDelete
  10. Why is it that we see price increases in markets as inflationary and price decreases as deflationary when markets can be bought or sold?

    If the trend in a market is down or its in a bear market, yet the amount of currency in the market has increased due to more shorts positions, would that not be inflationary?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @Realist:
      There are always as much shorts in a market as longs.
      The matter is, who surrenders first to the price suggestion of the other.
      The surrendering (greed or fear) makes the price move an so the market.

      Delete
    2. Thanks for the reply. Another way to put it:

      In a given time period Open Interest increases, but the price decreases. Is it possible this could be Inflationary?

      Delete
  11. Forex,LIBOR, Gold, Mortgage, gas, Aluminum, pharma, insurance etc markets all fined by governments(or paid off?) for collusion and fraud. Yea, right...there is no manipulation.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Oh yea, I forgot to add High Frequency Trading or HFT scandal/racket to the list.

    Financial services industry (casino) is just a scam in the kleptocracy. good luck you guys, your going to need it.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Dan, of course this was a dump to drive the price of gold down - 40 tons of gold suddenly sold (in 2 seconds). Dan - you are either willfully blind or area Fed shill.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Arthur;

      Amen brother, preach it! The choir is listening and you have convinced them all.

      By the way, you have it backward - Of course I am a Fed shill first and then willfully blind second.

      Believe whatever you want pal - if it makes you happy.

      Try trading beans or cattle first before you make a show of ignorance here. Or maybe trade some crude oil. I am sure that the price riggers were in there knocking it down, along with gasoline and heating oil and every other commodity listed on the exchanges. It is a lot easier to believe the idiocy you are spouting than to do the hard work and put in the necessary diligence to actually understand markets. The simplistic and naïve spout the same crap every time gold does not go perpetually higher.

      Delete
    2. Arthur,

      Did you check how many tons of gold are being bought in ten seconds on the way up?

      Delete
    3. We have had near 4 Billion in Gold paper sold into the market with no care for price in three different lots. One of those lots done at the most illiquid time possible. Who sells paper at with the intention of loosing money with no fiduciary responsibility to themselves or others? I am hoping you will explain the necessary diligence I am missing to explain this? It just does not make sense beyond being orchestrated.

      You have people on here who actually believe that the Fed does not care about gold?

      Delete
    4. I think the problem is in our perception of what is going on in such moments.
      We still imagine a world where human beings think, ponder, decide and then pick the mouse (formerly the receiver) and place an order. This is a picture of the past I think.
      Look at the sophisticated software even the trading facilities do provides that I (as a retail customer) have access to. They are fully packed with pre-arrangable, joint and contingent order tools. And no one wants to loose. Everyone is a loss-avoiding always-winning trader with this modern software. This can't work out smoothly. The first event of that kind was the derivative-driven crash of the stock mkt in the late 80ies.
      I don't need a conspiracy theory to imagine, that an one point any order-tool in a globally exposed mkt does the same. (Sell or buy, no matter what, just to be sooo smart to avoid losses.) Electrons work at light speed, so ehy not software moving within seconds. Worldwide, but joint.
      It frightens us, that mkts suddenly move vertically, and then stand still for a day or two. So we imagine someone being behind it. But that is human behaviour to look for a higher reason behind something dramatic.
      Markets have become so since the majority is machines.
      Just my opinion.

      Delete
    5. Alex;

      That is very well said and is extremely accurate. Those who keep peddling the "Gold is always manipulated all the time and every time it experiences a sharp selloff is proof of that" nonsense simply do not understand our modern markets nor do they trade anything else for that matter. The norm in every single futures markets has become wild price swings and huge spikes higher or lower. It is the new nature of the beast.

      I have found however that most who subscribe to the gold is always manipulated will never come around to understanding this. They prefer simplistic theories which keeps them from become successful traders or investors. Most of them seem more willing to lose money than to rectify their thinking.

      very sad....

      Delete
  14. Let me state for the record that I don't believe the Fed cares one bit about the price of gold. They are free to print as much money as they want and the price of gold has no baring on their ability to do that.

    That being said there is clearly manipulation in the gold market, as there is in virtually all markets. Folks when the SEC banned short selling in financials in the fall of 2008 that was the end of free markets. From that point on the banks would be given every advantage to make money either legal or illegal and the regulators were going to look the other way.

    Here is the definition of a bear market:

    Too much supply and too little demand.

    In a natural bear market supply should come back into the market as price drops to reach an equilibrium with demand.

    However that isn't what happened. During gold's bear market demand soared as price dropped. That is a sign of an artificial market where price is being held artificially below the natural level of demand.

    Because positions sizes aren't enforced the bullion banks can fleece the trend funds at will with these artificial hits in the paper market.

    But this can't continue forever. Sooner or later the physical market will regain control of pricing, and the end result is that the damage done to the physical market during the artificial bear market just means that the final end game will be with gold much much higher than it would have gone if gold had just been allowed to trade freely.

    So you can thank the bullion banks. If the final bubble price of gold was going to be $5000, now it's probably going to be $10,000 thanks to the manipulation in 2013.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gary;

      Thanks for the post... I will take exception however to your claim that "during gold's bear market demand soared as price dropped".

      You are focusing on the Asian side of the equation and neglecting the more important aspect of collapsing Western investment oriented demand. I have spoken to this very often over the last few years. The gauge of that demand is the GLD. holdings collapsed.

      We can go round and round on this but until Western oriented investment demand returns at a pace commensurate with what was seen during the surge in reported GLD holdings, one cannot make the claim that you are making and expect it to hold any water.

      Also, the entire commodity complex was moving lower and the Dollar was the go to currency. That cut out two more of the legs supporting gold.

      The idea that the only reason gold went lower is because it was manipulated lower by selling at the Comex is quite naïve.

      Delete
    2. Demand is demand. I don't care where it comes from. This is a global economy after all. I'm not saying gold had to go higher and break out to new highs. But there was never any fundamental reason for gold to enter a protracted bear market, other than a few big bullion banks coordinated to run those stops below $1520.

      If position limits had been enforced then there is no way that would have happened naturally. If gold had been allowed to trade freely then the gold chart would look more or less exactly the same as oil which has been in a 3 year consolidation.

      The simple fact is that regulators look the other way in the metals market (and in most markets) and this allows a few big banks to push price where they want it to go. It amounts to free money...at least until the physical market regains control of pricing. Which BTW I think is happening now.

      Delete
    3. Gary;

      That is so naïve... very sad....

      there was never any fundamental reason IN YOUR VIEW. However, and this is what keeps many traders from becoming successful - the market does not care about your view or my view. The view of the market, which was correct, is that demand was collapsing. That is all that matters.

      have a nice day.

      Delete
    4. Dan,
      My metal portfolio is up 17% this year.
      The commodity portfolio is up about 10%
      currencies are up, and stock portfolio is up
      Bonds are still down.

      Why would you automatically assume that one isn't successful just because they don't believe the same as you about manipulation? I've become better as a trader in that now I try to anticipate when the most opportune times the manipulation will show up.

      It allowed me to call almost the exact top last Sept. and the exact top on March 17.

      Now I just include manipulation in my tool box so I'm not surprised by it anymore.

      Delete
    5. Gary;
      Congrats to you on a good year thus far.

      Delete
    6. Dan,

      It is sad this fellow Gary has decided to come and further degrade your blog along with the usual manipulation and conspiracy theorists who still linger around here.

      As a friend and fellow trader friend, I have to advise you to ignore if not outright ban this slimeball, to put mildly, to save yourself of having to respond to and deal with further tripe coming from this guy.

      The only thing that this guy is truly good at is selling his theories and suck in as much sub money as he can from retail suckers from every corner of the blogsphere who can't trade or invest by themselves to save their life. Basically, he is akin to the fake 'traders' all over twitter and the internet who proudly claim to almost always win and never lose, and tries desperately to help us all to get RICH. Unfortunately, accountability and transparency is about as real and truthful as the get rich quick schemes and infomercial cons on TV...

      This is a guy who ripped anyone mentioning of manipulation in the metals market and now he completely believes and uses that reasoning himself in his "trading" (conveniently started after his "performance" went down the gutter).

      This is a guy after making a bunch of horrendous and negligent calls (investing in TVIX; investing in leap options to name a couple) which destroyed the portfolios of many of his subs for years, decided to stop posting his "performance" (of course, until his "performance" finally turned around this year so far).

      To call this guy a trader is an insult to real traders who puts real money and their own on the line to make a living. Analyst more than fits the bill, but a rude, arrogant, unaccountable, hypocritical and overall shoddy one at best. If you ask him though, he's even better than most hedge fund managers. I'm sure you've heard a lot of real traders who display these type of characteristics...

      Just an FYI Dan... and I'm sure there will be several of his dedicated disciples coming on here to defend this clown. Amazing, how similar these folks are to the gold manipulation cult.

      Avoid at all costs newbies, for all you out there reading.

      Delete
    7. Gary's performance this year due to the "cycle" tool and "manipulation" tool in the 'ole trading tool box, no doubt...

      Delete
    8. Jesse L;

      Good post my friend. Well said - I guess I am the only trader out there who occasionally has a trade that loses some money. Some of these guys apparently never lose. maybe we should get some T-shirts made up with their names and faces on them so that we can wear them around to show how much we want to be just like them.

      Seriously, humility is the mark of a trader who has been kicked, stomped on, and generally beat up in these markets over the years. They learn that they are not infallible very quickly. Some never learn at all and thus are no longer traders!

      Delete
  15. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dans site isn't for you to advertise on. Please go away

      Delete
  16. Elizabeth Warren destroys Janet Yellen. This isn't getting any air time..
    http://youtu.be/XYtSMLgaW6U

    ReplyDelete
  17. Just listened to a Peak Prosperity podcast with Maloney, who claims rents for summertime houses in Santa Monica mountains are 100k a MONTH. Any truth to that Socal readers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure it it's Tom Cruze or Sandra Bullock. Some of these folks have castles.

      I'll have to check on Truelia for more modest digs.

      Delete
  18. Gary and all other perma bull crybabies, why were you not bellyaching about the bullion banks selling gold in the hole, 15 years ago? Remember the Brown Bottom, or did you just start trading last month? And also, why do you not complain about the manufactured and orchestrated bull move in crude to 147? No position limits there , but you and Chris Martenson and Max Keiser and Egon go on and on and on. Massage that data baby and make your macro calls on everything under the son. Are you a Armstrong disciple, or what? Sure, the mkts are not perfect, as a quick read of the Dutch Tulip Bulb Fiasco, South Sea Island Bubble, Jay Gould railroad attempted corner, Livermore RCA shenanigans in the '20's, LTCM, Hunt brothers and so on, so it is what it is. If you are looking for clean and perfect mkts i suggest you take your bats and balls and go home, pal.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Well, looks like the mighty U.S. Dollar has re-asserted itself as the:

    - Worlds finest reserve currency
    - Paragon of safety and soundness

    Anyone who read the 186 posts on jsmineset about other countries starting to trade in other currencies, ended up WASTING THEIR TIME.

    Not only that, but bonds are soaring, stocks are soaring, as the U.S. is the only place for global institutions to invest.

    Peter Schiff must be grabbing the barf bag right about now.

    Stay in the System.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Man ... is it double meaning? If yes ... im with u ....your details are accurate and precise ... yet we are livin in a mad market and mad world
      so do worry mark, fundamental will eventually beat herd mentality , falsification ... and that includes chart ... hehe

      Delete
  20. That indeed is the issue that concerns me the most.
    In my view, two "developments" have changed the markets considerably.
    One is the speed of the players.
    The other is, that politicians have so much influence that supply and demand does not determine the price of a good any more. (I am mostly trading commodities.)
    Markets have been established to achieve a fair price determination by balancing producer's and fabricator's needs.
    But:
    At the millennium computers first offered help, and then set the terms.
    At the financial crisis politicians got a "card blanche" to change the game whenever they considered it to be usefull.

    Okay, one has to accept reality of capitalism. But authorities intervening a market was something that In former days just happened ever so often - and afterwards lots of books were written about it (e.g. Hunt Brothers).
    Today it happens once a week.

    So it doesn't make sense to analyse the equilibrium of a mkt.
    You have to consider, 'What does the gov. person in charge think about it, and how much money will be chased around by his/her words?'
    You don't "count the cards" any more. You guess, 'when will they modify the deck?'
    You try to guess the thinking of the Croupier and you analyse the equilibrium of the money being chased.
    (Again: Just my opinion.)

    ReplyDelete
  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The ongoing current meme about "empty London vaults" is an interesting and bold statement from KWN and others.

      I wonder where and by whom the initial claim was asserted by and if ANY proof at all about that claim (and the Fort Knox one) has been presented that indicates any of that to be based in truth?

      I'd like to see someone step up and prove (with some tangible evidence, not just regurgitated/piggy-backed claims by others) that their assertions or facts regarding empty vaults are based in anything other than a sensationalist marketing ploy.

      I'd really like to find out who initially started the misinformation (a KWN shill?) and what actual evidence they had to make the claim other than their belief system that China/Asia is buying a lot of gold THEREFORE they must be getting it from somewhere (London) THEREFORE the vault MUST be empty IF the GUESSTIMATES about Chinese gold consumption are true.
      That's usually how the speculation goes that leads to the sheer speculation/suspicion that the vaults are empty.

      That's a lot of conjecture and suspicion from the carny's that are premised on other people's conjectures that quickly deviate from any known facts or evidence and the conclusions reached ALWAYS end up in the ever so convenient CB/ Bullion Bank/evil cabal explanation of market manipulation is to blame for everything blah, blah, blah.

      The same egotistical Nostradamus' out there making all kinds of bold, egotistical claims have no proof whatsoever the vaults are empty.
      None....nada....zip.

      Hearing or reading someone essentially say..."trust me, I know, but I can't say how I know"...is the same fools game where one is born every minute.

      The shills realize this of course and they count on people never questioning their expertise or factual evidence to support their claims.
      Jim Willie and the other carny's out there can basically make stuff up and hide behind some mysterious cloak of insider knowledge and expertise....and people gobble it up.

      It's almost funny....except to the people who fall for it who eventually and quickly realize they're being taken for idiots.

      Empty vaults? Where's the proof and who was it that started the claim?

      For all I know, the same wild claims made today could've been made during almost any decade that experienced significant gold related turbulence.
      Regurgitation of old gold market anxieties from decades ago are still solidly in play today and being touted as new proof that some type of unsustainable collapse is imminent.

      That's almost funny because I recently saw a scraggily looking hobo-type guy with a sign this weekend that said... The End Is Near.

      Hey, maybe he's the source guy who knows about the London gold inventory. Lol!

      Delete
    2. DarkPurple; Good points; the empty gold vaulters are just like the touts at the race track with 1/2 pts of cheap brandy in their hip pockets and holes in their shoes.

      Delete
  22. I had to laugh recently when I read on KWN that Silver was about to skyrocket in price because the market was so small: was it really really HUGE before the price collapsed from $50 down to 20, and is "size" really all that matters when determining price trends. If so, then my dog is bigger than......

    ReplyDelete
  23. PostcolonialBrit; All Eric at kwn cares about is quantity of content; quality means nothing to him; all you have to do is have a middle name, Dr. in front of one your names, 45 years in the mkts, consultant to masters of the universe, contacts in Asia, and blahblahblah; pretty sad but it gives me a good chuckle at the end of the day; looks kinda like Zulauf, Faber, Roberts and others are giving him the blow-off, as they do not show up much lately. take care and good luck

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hey Steve,

    Wanna sign up for the next Q & A session, meet up with all the comb-overs and blue hairs who just got out of the Bingo parlor at the retirement center?

    I'm ready to listen on how everything is going to blow up, any minute now, and you better yank all your cash out of the system and pile your money into those barbaric relics, which are likely to be subject to 55% tax any day now.

    No thank you, I'd rather risk the S & P 500 now up 200% so far since 2009, a 10% "bail-in" will be inconsequential for me after the "vast fortunes" made on my stock investments so far.

    LOL...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Those are the same guys fully invested in mercury dimes (except their penny miners of course), cuz they'll be useful for barter. They forgot to sell them in 1980, and forgot again in 2011. Now it's a matter of principle, and a headache for the wife and kids until they finally put him in the ground. And it's not even funny.

      Delete
    2. Mental illness is a terrible thing.

      Delete
    3. Mark any update on Jim Puplava? Is he back in gold and saying the bottom is in?

      Delete
  25. Mark, if the keynote speaker is Anthony Robbins, I will meet up with you. lol

    ReplyDelete
  26. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Nice food fight

    Love the free speech here

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi all,
    Thanks for all your comments, bull or bear, believers of total / partial / occasional manipulation included :)

    Gold's 1290 level which is the mlh inf of the upwards pitchfork on the weekly time scale is holding thus far.
    So, as a reminder, bulls still have a nice bullish andrew's pitchfork to support them. As long as this mlh inf is holding (on the close of the week preferably), hope is imho still quite all right for bulls.
    Resistances on the way up are materialized on my chart by those fibo levels, i.e 1307 then 1337 (this time on a dally close basis).

    Despite all those price movements, overall, we are still in a kind of declining volatility period for gold on the long term : Prices collapsed from 1800 to 1180.
    Then created a new range 1180-1435.
    Since then, all this ping pong game is bumping on higher lows and lower highs.
    The last move within 1180-1435 was only 1240-1340 thus far.
    This corresponds to 2 fibonacci levels of the 1180-1435 (precisely 1240 and 1338).
    Let's simply monitor those boundaries and see if gold manages to start a real trend by breaking one of them, or if it will still drift up and down, making everyone crazy. Volatility may also still decrease. If we close the week close enough to 1290 and the ;lh inf holds, I may try a new long order here, as the important thing for me is to be able to put a stop loss very close from the start in order to dodge bullets.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi all,
    Thanks for all your comments, bull or bear, believers of total / partial / occasional manipulation included :)

    Gold's 1290 level which is the mlh inf of the upwards pitchfork on the weekly time scale is holding thus far.
    So, as a reminder, bulls still have a nice bullish andrew's pitchfork to support them. As long as this mlh inf is holding (on the close of the week preferably), hope is imho still quite all right for bulls.
    Resistances on the way up are materialized on my chart by those fibo levels, i.e 1307 then 1337 (this time on a dally close basis).

    Despite all those price movements, overall, we are still in a kind of declining volatility period for gold on the long term : Prices collapsed from 1800 to 1180.
    Then created a new range 1180-1435.
    Since then, all this ping pong game is bumping on higher lows and lower highs.
    The last move within 1180-1435 was only 1240-1340 thus far.
    This corresponds to 2 fibonacci levels of the 1180-1435 (precisely 1240 and 1338).
    Let's simply monitor those boundaries and see if gold manages to start a real trend by breaking one of them, or if it will still drift up and down, making everyone crazy. Volatility may also still decrease. If we close the week close enough to 1290 and the ;lh inf holds, I may try a new long order here, as the important thing for me is to be able to put a stop loss very close from the start in order to dodge bullets.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Dan - A face behind the hedge fund computers run amok...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-17/wall-street-techs-take-secrets-to-next-job-at-their-peril.html

    ReplyDelete
  31. What excuse will all the hardcore gold & silver bull rodeo clowns give when interest rates start to gradually go up at some point despite the assertions by many that rate hikes are IMPOSSIBLE because QE to infinity CAN'T end?

    Maybe it can't end for them because so many PM blogs have wedded themselves irreversibly to that "QE 4Ever" meme and rates eventually rising would blow their steamboats out of the water and expose them for their barnacled belief or marketing system?


    My guess is that they'll label it as another sign of Fed or evil cartel desperation that they can't possibly continue with because rates going up just further proves that...the end is near!

    Ha!

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.