“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Friday, June 20, 2014

Speculators Short Copper, Cover in Silver and in Gold

The weekly Commitment of Traders report is out, seeing that it is Friday afternoon, so we can now once again proceed with our entrails-reading and tea leaf-divining as we dissect the internals of some of these commodity futures markets.

I thought I would start with my favorite indicator market, namely copper. Here is the COT chart. It looks like it was a case of - for the Hedge Funds - "If you can't beat 'em, then join them". They finally abandoned the copper market on the long side and moved over to join the other Large Reportables camp on the net short side of the market this past week. Those of you who have been following the site will recall that I have been fascinated by this battle between titans over the fortunes of the red metal. The "large reportables" camp has been winning that war.



I should point out, however, that it does appear we had a big round of short covering among these speculators that took place on Wednesday and continued into today's session. Here is the Daily Chart.


As you can see, I made a pointer to the Wednesday bar; the day on which the FOMC released their statement and Janet Yellen gave her now infamous testimony. Copper put on some $.06 per pound since then. No doubt those who were short the metal were just as spooked and shell-shocked as anyone else when her testimony began getting considered and studied more closely. I suspect they ran strongly for the exits as many shorts did across the entirety of the commodity sector, especially on Thursday when "the Yellen" unleashed havoc on the commodity bears. ( I want to recall that scene in the Russell Crow movie, "Gladiator', at the beginning when the Roman army is fighting in Germania and Maximus tells his officer; 'at my signal, UNLEASH HELL").

I think the shorts all felt like the barbarian army after the Romans finished with them in that battle scene. I know I sure did in my feeder cattle positions. They had gone limit down the previous day and ended limit up on Thursday! Everyone was panicking trying to figure out what the hell was going on.

Silver experienced a round of significant short covering this week, much more of which continued on Thursday and Friday's sessions. The hedge funds underwent a HUGE SWING of some 11,000 contracts in favor of the buy side as they covered  9800 short contracts. They only added about 1450 contracts on the long side however. That probably changed Thursday and Friday however based on what I have been able to glean thus far from the open interest data and volume readings. Prior to those two days, hedge funds, who had been net short silver nearly 6000 contracts were now net long by some 5000 contracts! That did not take long did it?

I would suspect that what silver, and gold, have undergone this week, is pretty much indicative of what happened to many commodity market bears. They were forced out by index fund buying and by hedge fund short covering, which was unleashed by Janet Yellen.

Here is a look at the gold COT chart noting the positioning of the hedge funds on a net basis.




You can see that the Net Long positioning of the hedge funds shot up through Tuesday of this week. As it did, it is not hard to figure out what happened to the gold price - up it went. And remember - this is only through Tuesday and did not include that wild ride higher on Thursday. I cannot even imagine at this point how many speculative shorts were blindsided by Maximus Yellen.

There was a swing of about 15,300 contracts towards the net long side among the hedgies as they covered some 13,600 shorts and added some 1700 new longs. I should point out here something that I have commented on during previous rallies in gold over the last few months - If one is bullish, one does not want to see a market moving higher led by short covering. One should expect to see short covering but they also WANT TO SEE NEW BUYING. That means, in subsequent COT Reports, we are going to want to see the number of new longs, especially on the hedge front side of things, outnumbering the amount of short covering. If this is the case, it will augur for further strength in the metal. If however, and this is key, we do not see that development, I will be concerned about the staying power of this current rally.

It is way too soon to be declaring the bear market in gold is over, especially on the basis of a week's price action but especially with a move higher led mainly by short covering. Let's see what we get for the next week. Also, please keep in mind that weekly chart of gold I posted yesterday showing the rectangular boxes denoting the range trade that gold has been undergoing.

From a technical analysis standpoint, gold has been in a bear market since it broke down below $1530. It has now stopped going down but neither is it in a bull market. It is RANGE BOUND - pure and simple. It will have to break out above the top of the year long range near $1400 before one can make declarative statements that "the bear market in gold is over". That is someone talking their bias and not being objective.

We had the same sort of talk back when gold bounced off of the $1530 level the second time some while back. The same chatter was" the move lower in gold is over- expect it to go on and make new life time highs". We all know how that played out!  

What we can say, and say with a great deal of certainty, is that the recent leg lower in gold has been halted. The market has found support first near $1200 and now again at $1240 ( a higher low within the range as I pointed out yesterday). But it has not yet broken out on the charts. It can run as far as $1400 and still remain rangebound.

Please remember this when we start getting the predictions again and confident assertions. Just stay unbiased and objective, respect the price action for what it is, and go with the flow. Above all, KEEP YOUR EMOTIONS out of it.

One can always tell those whose trading/investing decisions are based on emotions and not objectivity because they will be the first to insult those whose technical view of the markets contradicts their positioning as well as the first to crow when the market moves in their favor.

Trading/investing is not about emotions - it is about remaining objective to the point of becoming almost cold-hearted. That takes years and years of exposure to learn.

Incidentally, one last thing for now, some of you very kindly have suggested I put some sort of "Donate" button on my site. I have opted not to use ads as I feel they clutter the site up anyway and detract from what I am trying to convey. I have long resisted putting anything up here for monetary purposes but I must admit that there are times when trying to keep posting interesting and hopefully useful articles and such does take its toll on me. I am first and foremost a trader and as such I must give my trading my full attention and efforts.

However, the website does take a lot of my time and I am finding that I spend more and more of it in front of the computer to the point where I am wondering if it is worthwhile for me to continue this. I do have another life besides that of a trader. I think every man should try to leave the world a bit of a better place than he or she found it but I also have a legacy to think of in regards to my own kids and wife.

Please send me a bit of feedback about this. I do not want to do anything that would come across as unseemly or blatantly or obscenely mercenary. I would rather however go with a Donate button rather than make this site, fee paid or clutter it all up with ads.

Going the ad routine tempts people into surrendering their objectivity to cater to a particular set of the population ( call them "the choir") and moving towards sensationalism and other efforts that are designed to attract as much viewership as possible to generate more ad revenue. I abhor that personally. I would much rather have a clean conscience and a much less visited web site than one that makes lots of money but ends up harming people because it clouds their objectivity and keeps them in poor investments by marrying them to one point of view only. That is a dangerous and financially destructive path.

Going to a fee paid site might prevent some of those who cannot afford such things from reading the site and maybe learning something that might help them become better investors or traders.

The Donate route seems to me to be a good alternative as it is completely voluntary and not tied in whatsoever to the amount of website clicks that many use to generate revenue.

Let me hear from you on this please.

To those of you who have been reading here regularly, thank you for your continued patronage. I want you to know that I am honored and humbled by your viewership and that I take very seriously what I am writing and my analysis because I realize I have earned the trust of many of you. That trust cannot be valued too highly. The last thing I would ever want to do is to do anything that might be misconstrued as being dishonest or disingenuous. I try to call things as I see them - sometimes I am wrong - sometimes I am right but I do try to stay objective. Hopefully that has been conveyed over the years here.

Again, thanks.
Dan

66 comments:

  1. Hi Dan,

    I look forward to reading your site everytime you post. I have learned an awful lot and find your analysis unparalleled. I think a lot of others will share this opinion. I would hate to see you leave, but I understand that it takes a lot of time and effort to post as much and as thoroughly as you do. I strongly suggest you put a donate button up and see how it goes. Things are kind of down for me at the moment financially, but I can still afford donating a few dollars here and there and if most do the same, it could make the website more worth your time. thanks again so much for all you do Dan!

    ReplyDelete
  2. .1: This of yours says it all about ads: "efforts that are designed to attract as much viewership as possible to generate more ad revenue".
    2. As to paid site, face it, there is a lot of "free" out there; only way the free goes away is under government legislation [wait for it].
    3. Donate button. I do donate to some writers, but not just because I value their writings but because I believe they need my donation, are truly in need.
    Assuming you are doing well in the trading world, looking for donations for your writings seems to mean you need a dollar amount to keep going here. If that is the case, seems your heart just ain't in it anymore.
    Best of luck.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As a follow up to what I said earlier, I think since Dan's analysis is so in depth and also he takes the time to explain things like charts, etc and brings a wealth of knowledge with his experience that most if not all of the other free sites can't compare to his (maybe you can provide us with an example?). Maybe he doesn't need the money, maybe he does, regardless it's a lot of work that deserves some compensation. Doesn't even have to be a lot per person or every visit. If you feel you made money from a trade or learned some useful, then donate something. If this site gets enough traffic, which I suspect it has been picking up since it is a great site, then those few dollars here and there can add up. As a side note, I've notice he's had to put up with more troublemakers lately that get us off track of why we come here too and I know that can be frustrating to the author.

      Delete
  3. Hi Dan,

    I really appreciate what you do for all of us, and I hope you don't stop publishing. That said, take a break for a while, everyone needs a mental vacation. Even if you just throw up some charts with a brief take and not write so much, I would still find that very helpful.

    Thanks,

    Michael

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dan, I think there are two aspects of your website which could stand improvement - and hence support partial commercialization.

    1. At present it is wide open to all-comers, but very very clunky in operation, without either a Search facility or a text editor allowing corrections or images to be posted; if you moved to a Registration-based service which did not involve a subscription, but some form of "Membership", then this would not exclude anyone who wanted to read your commentary, but would offer a pretext for upping the overall "professionalism" of the site, and at that point I am sure nobody would rail too hard if a few banner ads started to appear. Whether you can cover your cost from clicks alone, I have no idea, but stopping one step short of a full-on paid-for service should not offend anyone, if tied to a richer user experience

    2. Your experience has value, and I was always taught that "Free Advice is worth Every Penny" i.e. nothing. There are of course legal and reputational ramifications of being a tipster - and I have never thought of you as such - and I expect there would be a clear trade-off between the fee you charged and the number of readers your blog attracted. Frankly, I support what I perceive to be your sentiment that the overall goal should be to reach out to as wide an audience as possible, whilst not becoming a charity or a home for social misfits in the process

    With this in mind, I believe that a formal Paywall or subscription service would be a Bad Idea (although I would probably pony up!). Similarly, openly selling or promoting items (whether bullion or trivia) would also cheapen your proposition, and I sense this is not your style either.

    My recommendation, therefore, is to go down the Banner Ad route and maybe consider leveraging this website to make incremental revenue elsewhere - whether as an occasional speaker, fee-based consultant or author. That might allow you to strike a happy medium of maintaining a friendly 'neighbourhood' face whilst not doing it all for nothing

    In closing, I would like to emphasise my strong support for two of your recent statements:

    1. The enemy is ourselves, not the market: Fear & Greed will kill you. Do the sums, make a plan (including an exit strategy), stick to it. That's all there is.

    2. One swallow doesn't make a Summer; I am very, very long physical gold, and I would dearly love it to skyrocket upwards, but until we breach 1500 again, we are in a sustained down-channel, and unless you are a timing genius and very very nimble, trying to "call" the present market on the basis of short-term trends is a hiding to nothing. I may post a piece I wrote a few years back on Hurst Coefficients and the way in which trend-strength can be assessed (a bit like Momentum). Basically, there are stable periods in any trend, and unstable periods, and in the latter case although the previous directional movement may reassert itself, the certainty of it continuing its previous path diminishes very considerably. On my spreadsheet we have been in such an unstable condition (a) since September 2013 and (b) Since May 27th this year. As with Rumsfeld, I may not know where this market is going, but at least I know I don't know and can manage myself accordingly

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These are not the Droids you are looking for, but offer some insight into fractal trend analysis:

      http://qianbo.myweb.uga.edu/research/Hurst.pdf

      http://www.analytics-magazine.org/july-august-2012/624-the-hurst-exponent-predictability-of-time-series

      http://www.earnforex.com/blog/using-hurst-exponent-in-forex-trading/

      [that'll be $4.50 please - and I accept Bitcoin :-) ]

      Delete
  5. Dan- my thoughts on the donate/subscription options: A man's labor has value regardless if he is passionate about what he is doing or not, rich or poor, needs money or does not need the money. You are a professional trader with 30? years experience who is helping others who visit this site. That is worth paying for on a subscription basis or through a donate button. Whether or not you need the money is not the issue. It is the PRINCIPLE that you are creating value for others by spending your time providing good information. Charging for this is not a "negative" and believe allot of people would actually appreciate the info even more if they paid for it. If a paid subscription, would be interesting to see a few trading strategies/trades mixed in (even though they can be inferred sometimes from the info you post). Also like seeing other contributors strategies as it also helps readers (like me) learn more. Your charting is great and insights unbiased with a more "honest" perspective than what is available out there. Thanks for asking for the feedback...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks for the analysis once again Dan.

    Put a "Donate" button on the site. Despite the trollish remarks you're sure to get about about doing so please ignore them and let some of us show some form of appreciation for your knowledge, time and effort.

    Targeted ad's wouldn't bother me one bit. You have quite a bit of blank web page showing down the entire right side of your blog. Use it.

    I shop online at times and I like seeing merchandise or services that I'm interested in.
    You'll never be a shill so try not to worry about appearances or the crappy comments about you considering a donate button.

    If you go paywall you'll kill the blog eventually and some of the fringe goldbug fever types you're hoping to educate will never see a word of it. That would be a shame.

    My guess is that you'll soon find out how many people globally follow you who want to show some form of gratitude towards you.

    Just do it, you won't regret it. Your resistence thus far to the idea of a donate feature speaks volumes about your sincerity in why you're doing this.
    People that can't understand that or who begrudge some of us who want to show our gratitude are miserable types, plain and simple.

    Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  7. There are a couple good articles by Andrew Maguire on KWN's site...

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/20_Maguire_-_Massive_Central_Bank_Buying_To_Crush_Gold_Shorts.html

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/20_Maguire_-_90_Ton_Delivery_Triggered_Short_Squeeze_In_Gold.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. and that must surely be a resounding SELL signal if ever there was one...

      Delete
    2. Gillion; Maguirre is a shoe clerk charlatan.

      Delete
    3. I thought he was a failed Car Lease salesman? http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-10-24/KitcoNews20131024DA-CPM-Group-Alleges-Whistleblower-Maguire-Has-No-Metals-History-Silver-Summit.html
      "Custom Lease Capital Inc.

      “It was successful for about four years, until Maguire decided to franchise the company. The company did not succeed and closed within two years
      "

      Delete
    4. PostcolonialBrit - Here are two articles discrediting the statements by Jeff Christianson of CPM of what he allgeged about Andrew Maguire. There are also plenty of articles on Jeff that shine a light on him being incompetent and a frontman for TPTB

      http://www.silverdoctors.com/a-formal-response-from-andrew-maguire/

      http://www.silverdoctors.com/andrew-maguires-employer-responds-to-jeffrey-christians-fraud-allegations/

      Delete
    5. Ah, "TPTB" - well, you should have said! That kind of seal it, I suppose. TPTB! - who would have thought?! Is that the same lot as "The Cartel", or are these "The Evil Empire TPTB"?

      TG - I have caught Maguire out with so many technical errors and self-contradictory statements (whether about options, COMEX delivery, collateral and margin management or plain logic) that I have no hesitation in asserting without any doubt whatsoever that this guy is emphatically NOT the Real Deal.

      He is now on record forecasting that "with wholesale demand aggregated into the $1,300 to $1,350 level, any dips are going to be short-lived from now on .... (sovereigns) are now (bidding) at the $1,305 level. The next thing is we want to see the price rise. Once we’ve cemented this $1,300 bottom, you are going to see huge, huge tonnage come in (on the buy side)," http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/20_Maguire_-_Massive_Central_Bank_Buying_To_Crush_Gold_Shorts.html - I will be the first to eat my hat if that comes anywhere close to playing out over any reasonable timeframe, much less his subsequent prediction (also on KWN) that "we are at the point where the divergences are so extreme that we are going to have to get to at least $1,350 gold and $22 silver just to remove the worst of the excess froth. Given the strong physical demand that will come in once we see the $1,300s become support, the $1,400s are still too cheap to meet existing demand"

      Walter Mitty comes to mind.

      Delete
  8. Of all the blogs I follow yours is always the first I read because I am a trader and I value your opinion and insight. There are subscription services that I would love to have access to but I simply can't afford them. I had assumed your writing helped to solidify your position (it does me although I communicate only to fellow traders) but in retrospect your blog has to take a lot of time. Figure out what it is that takes most of your time and eliminate it. Personally I would not be able to deal with the various personalities in the comment section. Depending on price I would consider paying for your insight. Whatever your decision I wish you the best.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I can't thank you enough for what you have written, I was following the sensational advice from others for awhile and lost about as much money as in the 2008 crash took from my 401k. First I was letting "professional" managers work with my money and lost, then I vowed not to trust others and lost a bunch of money on my own (listening to others as if I'd not learned my lesson). After listening to you on KWN I loved your willingness to take on people with alternative opinions. With application of the principles of what you have taught I've managed to get some of my money back! I couldn't have done it by applying the principles you teach here. Selfishly I don't want you to quit but understand you have a life. I'd encourage the Donate button. A wise man said that true capitalism is the exchange of coupons of appreciation for services or goods. Please let us send you some certificates of appreciation for your hard work. If you use a Donate button then you might not feel as obligated to post which could make it more stressful. If it were a paid site it might put MORE pressure on you. Please put the Donate button as well as a post on a suggested donation for your time. Thanks again, sir!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dan or anyone else -

    I looked at http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/historical-data/.

    It says that there are 782.62 tons in gld. Which is slightly less than what Dan reported less than a week ago.

    Is this the most recent data, or is there another place on the Internet to find.

    It would show that western demand has not necessarily increased this week.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I visit this site almost every day. Like the information ...Don't mind to pay..
    I wish Dan could just make his commentary about markets...
    Not spent too much time and energy or emotions to argument about "manipulated" topics.. Don' t understand why so sensitive on this...
    Really who cares... why even bring it up?
    This is basically your site, don't have to make every single dialog with each questions of individuals.. you only have 24 hours a day...

    Also some annoyed people would spoil your site by repeat ranting, "just like gold bugs, but on the other site"

    Jesse Cafe.America blog... very positive and informative site... That is why it is very popular..



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jesse's Cafe is one of the most ill-informed and misguided Gold sites you will find: not quite in the KWN and Harvey League, I grant you, but Jesse is still fascinated by the COMEX inventories and "failed settlement" nonsense. The Gold is "all gone", you see.....

      Delete
    2. At least, he is putting money where his mouth is...
      Everybody has his/her opinion, including KWN; whether they are right or not, readers would have to make their own judgement...

      Delete
    3. that's a fair comment; my only concern would be about other people putting their money where his mouth is, and if his mangled and carefully selected factoids are accepted at face value, there is every possibility that the markets will enforce their judgement before naive and gullible readers even get a look-in

      Delete
  12. Dan, I rarely comment as I find the comment section more tedious than I can handle. I do read your expert writings.
    I would lean to the Donate button option.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Dan,

    I appreciate your blog and experience, and often come when I'm after another view. I'm an investor rather than trader.

    Re: Feedback about the site esp. regarding Donate button or Ads etc.

    1. I think you need to determine why you write. Is it a ministry? Is it just to serve others, to provide an unbiased view and save naive people from one-sided analysis? If so, the reward is in the effects, you just need to make sure it doesn't cost you more in time and money than you planned.

    2. I would have no problem with a Donate button or banner ads. I agree that the integrity of site is paramount, so maybe with lower views it might earn less from Ads.

    3. I have no problem at all with a paid site, although probably wouldn't join. I assume some other readers would be in the same category, so again, it depends on your purpose for the blog.

    4. Are you seeking some renumeration to alleviate the financial costs of the blog? To compensate for the time involved in doing it? Gain a return on your labour and experience of 30 years by providing a marketable service? All are fine, but see point 1, also.

    5. I find no problem at all with the layout, professionalism, accessability, etc of the blog.

    All the best with whatever you decide, and thanks for all you've done so far.

    Blessings,
    Darren

    ReplyDelete
  14. I had seven suggestions on the way to more but lost them twice by hitting the wrong keys. I'll try to reconstruct them over the weekend (I'm a slow learner (see 'twice', above)).
    But I wanted to be sure to say this: Let us fight your battles sometimes. The other day someone was knocking you and you answered at length. The fellow's comment meant absolutely nothing to anyone reading your site; a distasteful little jibe. It made me sad to see you argue with him; an utter waste of your time. Next time you see something like that, please consider ignoring it, or letting it sit until you see whether your readers adequately deal with it.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Dan, I've been a grateful reader since your days at JSMineset. Your posts at Mineset were infrequent and, as such, were always a special treat. Similarly, here at your own site there have been periods of time when the markets were giving you fits and your full attention was on trading instead of posting. I would still check in every day to see if you had posted anything new and, if not, peruse the archived posts if time allowed. So, unless it is somehow a cathartic exercise for you, couldn't you try to consciously limit the amount of time that you spend in front of the keyboard? Or maybe once in a while just throw some charts up without comment and let us figure out what it is you're trying to show us?

    I love coming here so I don't want to see the site go away but I also want the best for you and your family. These are crazy times we're living in and we all have to make sure that we stay focused on the things that are most important in our lives.

    If you don't want to deal with ads on your site, then a donation button would be a good way to defray the real costs of keeping it going and it would give us an opportunity to show that we appreciate what you do for us. I'm afraid that a paid subscription site might just put more pressure on you to deliver content. I would gladly pay for a subscription, but it sounds like what you really need is more time for yourself and your family.

    If you stopped posting today, there is still a ton of material on this site that would help people seeking to understand markets. Your market insights have great value and I am humbled by the depth of your knowledge and generosity. Best wishes always.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Dan

    I value your insight greatly and appreciate the amount of work and effort you put in, which is considerable, especially you have personal life to attend to and enjoy as well. It takes considerable amount of time and energy to write at the quality you do, and I believe through the time I've been reading your post, that you are genuinely offering your opinions in the hope of helping other people, who may or may not be able to take advantage of your wisdom or afford to pay for it.

    I think a donation button will strike the balance of allowing some of your readers to show their appreciation, while still allow access to people who cannot afford to pay for your wisdom.

    Principally I believe one should not expect something for nothing. I think honest opinions in trading can be relatively boring compared to the sensationalism that some paid subscription writers are selling. Emotions are just the worst thing to have in trading, but hey they do sell ad and generate revenue from people who are not in this field long enough. Sadly lots of people who never paid for subscription service won't know that lots of paid services are really very biased toward revenue generation, rather than professionalism and competence.

    From what you write I think the subscription fees are not your main motivation, and if you think your time need to be diverted for more important cause then please do not feel bad that you need to quit writing for something more important to you.

    All the best for whatever you do!

    ReplyDelete
  17. I don't think this has anything to do with money. The only reason you are thinking about that is because the burden seems to outweigh the satisfaction at present, so you're seeking to balance it out again. You can get to the same place by either reducing the burden or increasing the reward.
    RE the latter:
    1. You might consider a one-time membership charge in order to comment. You might even accept a copy of a Paypal receipt to any charity. Most will contribute to you, and the point is to remove the ability of the un-serious to add to your writing burdens.
    2. Consider a monthly pay wall that gives access to some of your positions.

    RE the burden, there's a lot more opportunity there. If you consider the totality of your twenty or so monthly posts and all of your answers, by my rough math you are writing the equivalent of a half dozen novels/year. It would be a miracle if you didn't feel burdened.
    1. See my comment above about not always taking on detractors. It will lessen your feeling of burden if you don't have to deal with irrelevancies. Consider just deleting some comments. This is your site, not a democratized free speech zone.
    2. You're very conscientious and meticulous; this adds to your burden. Be more cryptic and allow people to ask if they don't get it. You carefully develop adjuncts and contingencies and explain them thoroughly; a list may often suffice. If you make a conscious effort to communicate your point as directly and concisely as possible it will happen. You write beautifully, and I would prefer that your posts remain exactly as they are with the fuller explanations, but would gladly forgo some of that if the alternative is nothing. You make a decent living now, so barring banners with massive traffic or a paywall and exposure in mass media, no amount of money this site produces is going to balance the equation for you, and it will be futile to expend energy trying. The burden is the enemy, reducing that is how you find your comfort zone again.
    3. Unless a question is critical, let it sit and see if a reader can provide an adequate answer.
    4. Develop a database of commonly repeated arguments/statements/explanations for your use. This can be as simple as an excel spreadsheet; one column for the topic, another for the comment. You can populate it starting tomorrow. You will find great satisfaction the first time one of the comments you anticipate making use of again is actually cut and pasted into a post or reply.
    5. Develop a reader-accessible file with the larger arguments that you keep typing over and over. Start populating it tomorrow. Next time one crops up, just post the link to it.
    6. Use the same method for a glossary. All of these things are directed at one goal: never typing the same thing twice unless you've given yourself no choice in the matter.
    7. Consider mixing up the content. Perhaps shorter daily posts and a longer weekly summary, or a combination of posts and desktop videos.
    8. Directly solicit help. Are there regular readers/commentors who you trust to reply to people in most cases, and you wish they'd do more? Consider communicating with them directly about that fact. Some people like Hubert seem to be very knowledgeable and patient.

    Thanks and kindest regards.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could not say better myself;
      if the site were full of Huberts and yourself, it would be much fun to join..
      Best regards.

      Delete
  18. Good post today Dan. Thks. My suggestion is similar to others. Post less frequently and do not spend so much time rehashing old arguments with commenters. Donate button or not no problem. Ads are waste of time. .. Want cash? Make it subscription site.

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  21. On Friday, COMEX Gold closed a smidge above $1314, having failed to hold $1320 (which is where it was at in February and March this year); this, however has been treated by some of the more 'premature congratulatory' types in the Gold community as evidence of "The Big One", with certain commentators not only declaring the end of the Bear market, but forecasting Gold at $2000 by year end and - wait for it - Silver at $50 within six weeks and the Gold:Silver ratio at 25

    Let's put $1314 on 20th June 2014 into context:

    21 June 2013 - $1292
    22 July 2013 - $1320
    21 Aug 2013 - $1361
    20 Sep 2013 - $1352
    21 Oct 2013 - $1317
    20 Nov 2013 - $1264
    20 Dec 2013 - $1195
    20 Jan 2014 - $1255
    20 Feb 2014 - $1315
    20 Mar 2014 - $1327
    21 Apr 2014 - $1299
    20 May 2014 - $1294

    I make that 6 months when the price has been above Friday's close, and 6 when it hasn't - making it a best a pretty "average" price. Not so! - for Gold is apparently headed to astronomical price levels . I know this, because I read it on the internet http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/6/20_Grant_Williams_Says_Gold_Headed_To_Astronomical_Price_Levels.html and the sources is "one of the most highly respected fund managers in Singapore" . (I'm in Singapore too, but I don't have the benefit of psychotropically-induced delusions)

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  22. I would suggest you just post your comments Dan and not allow any replies as they always end up with a few going off on a rant about gold bugs or Jim whats his face and his acolytes. If you do allow posts then as Gregory has commented just ignore the ones that are obviously trying to bait you or better still delete them so we do not have to read them.

    Go with donate or adverts and thanks for all the work.

    By the way I do not agree with the negative comments about Jessie's blog. Yes it is a bit off the wall sometimes, but that is the charm of the blog and makes it stand out. As for the gold is all gone, maybe he is right we will find out one day!

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    1. I can recommend "das leben der anderen" im sure youll like the movie.

      Censorship and stonewalling critical thought is for kwn jsmineset jsmineset facebook group jims cometgold fanclub, tfmeyals sute kwn and all the other cultist sites.

      Delete
  23. Hi Dan, I would be happy to make a contribution to your blog! I find your posts most valuable, and quite unique within the PM blogosphere. Your efforts to enlighten others and your respect for truth and facts fills me with a belief in mankind.(:-)) (Sounds stupid perhaps, but with all these lunatics running the world you may sometimes get very desillusioned.) This world needs people with integrity, common sense and good will, and you are one of them! Many thanks!

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  24. Hi Dan,

    The comment about WHY you are doing this is key. Ads and donations - meh, I'd rather see you get syndicated. Your content and analysis is written well, informative, balanced plus entertaining. This combo is rare.

    I look forward to you everyday and when things are moving quickly your intraday updates are simply icing on the cake.

    On recent activity it seems when the boat is so onesided nature swings in back hard. Too many shorts? Bam - thank you for your chips, the house wins. The Million dollar q is when nature comes knocking on the US equities. I think only a black swan can stop it. I have cash but will not BTFATH. Watching Short Russell and VIX but being patient.

    All the best and think about syndication. You are worth it!

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  26. Hi Dan

    A few comments from someone who has your blog on feed and reads most of what you post.

    My generous fellow, please do what fits with what you need the most. If you feel you don't want to give up the posts but are feeling undercompensated, either financially or emotionally, then address that issue and find a way to reward yourself. I am grateful for your work but have no right to expect it. It's a bonus for me.

    If posting is becoming too big a burden, taking away from your trading focus and cutting short time with family, please take care of your main business and family first. This is as it should be, and I have no right to expect it to be different.

    If you are keen on maintaining the postings, then maybe a rethink as to how to simplify the process would be helpful. At times, I see the presentations can be quite lengthy. Perhaps a combination of simplifying and cutting back on content would be helpful.

    You have done and are doing an excellent job of informing about the markets. It's a gift; I gladly accept it but have no expectation that you must continue on my behalf.

    Do what's right for you and yours. Once you make up your mind about that, then how you proceed will be come clearer, I propose.

    All the best.

    Kaiwen

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  27. Hey Dan,

    I'm a recent noob to trading and I sometimes get referred to your blog from people on the platform I'm busy trading on. Being a noob, I wouldn't pay for anything unless I tested it and it worked which requires a longer commitment, so ads to me would make your site look cheap plus prevent me from getting to your content (I've only visited your site on mobile) and I wouldn't do subscription cos I really haven't realised the value of your insight yet. The experienced guys could pay for a subscription but then you would be creating a wall for anyone new (like me).

    Soo anyhow, the platform I'm on has this feature called "Social Trading", it allows people to "follow" you, your advice, graphs, etc. then if they feel confident about you, they can "copy" your trades. To keep "pro traders" happier (no one is ever in a constant state of happiness), they have incentives for traders who have copiers. You can post as little or as much as your like, when you like, wherever you like (enjoying their mobile apps at the moment), get notified when someone comments on your post, etc.

    To me, this provides you with a way for everyone to easily subscribe to your experience and wisdom; if you feel like trading ("putting your money where your mouth is"), then we can copy you and hopefully learn by your experience too (they have a practice mode for us noobs and can copy traders in it as well), you could also gauge your true followers as well (the ones who copy you from the start ;).

    ...and once you meet the platforms criteria for their "popular investor program", you can earn that bit extra remuneration apart from your own trades. There are literally traders with a few thousand copiers, so I would say that they are being well remunerated and the only way they can keep their followers and copiers happy is by doing what you're already doing best... trading and sharing the love.

    I'm not here to promote the platform, so if you're interested just let me know.

    Yours truly,
    Total Noob

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  28. If you begin to wonder whether blogging is beginning to hurt your family, then it probably IS hurting your family. Prioritize the home front first, Dan. Blog less if you have to. The question of whether to take donations or not is beside the point. Good Luck.

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  29. Dan, I check this blog every day and have learned much from you. The thing that most sets you apart is your experience in the broader commodity markets, not just gold/silver. I am fine with a "donate" button and/or advertisements; I could also see going to "no comments" if that would save you time and hassle (I suspect it would).

    Blessings be with you.

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  30. A donate button seems to make most sense.

    As a trader, we make our money from our trading not our views, opinions and analysis. No one is completely right all the time. It is all about reading price actions, controlling risk, greed and fear. That's why we are all in a community sharing our ideas.

    However, I appreciate all your kind efforts to share. Also, I value your experience and insights.

    So a donate button certainly makes sense. It will not be construed as a money making site selling newsletter and advertisement. We are paying for your effort in keeping up the site and taking extra time and effort to write. It is only fair you should be compensated for these efforts.

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  31. I enjoy your writing and opinion. I think a "Contribution/Donate" button would be very appropriate. I have donated in the past to other blogs, just because I felt that they were very helpful...

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  32. Hi Dan,

    I can only repeat what already has been said so I say it again.

    I look forward to reading your site everytime you post. I also have learned an awful lot and find your analysis objective and educational. I understand that it takes a lot of time and effort to post as much and as thoroughly as you do.
    Please try a donate button up and see how it goes.

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  33. Dan,
    Do what is best for you. You have contributed a great deal and now you need to make it work for you.

    That is all as Steve says.

    Concord

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  34. Dan,

    I agree with Concord, do what's best for you and what you think is right. A man of values who follow God like yourself, I am very comfortable with whatever you decide to do. This is your site and your time that you have been so generous in sharing us with.

    If and when you can, I would love to hear your comments on WTI oil and the large spec positioning breaking out massively to the upside, continuing to grow and make historical highs! At what point do you think this will stop, and when the rally finally ends.... just how far do you think oil can correct when the large specs are this one sided on the boat? Have you seen anything like this on the commodity side where the positioning has been this one sided? Even the 2008 crisis when oil collapsed $100 didn't have such lopsided positioning!

    JL

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  35. Dan, Jesse and Concord are right on. Follow your guts and the detractors can all pound salt. Have a good weekend and wasn't Lucy Li just about the best sports story of the week?

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  36. Dear Dan, 

    I read your bog daily.  What you put out has tremendous value.  Your experience, your honest heart, and your wonderful writing voice makes your information incredibly valuable plus easy to read and understand.

    I have always understood what may be free to me costs you in time.  Time is our most valuable asset and you have been giving it freely.  I  emailed you last year to say if you ever went pay I would follow.

    I fully support the notion of you balancing your costs against a desire to be heard as well as 
    an honest truthfull effort to help the little guy trader survive the overwhelming amount of crap information thats out there.

    Maybe putting a price tag or a sign in membership will relieve you of a percentage of the individuals who hold to the notion that those who have are supposed to give it away when the reality is those who have more often than not have worked very hard to develope special skills then keep what they have by managing themselves and their time wisely there by keeping or even increasing what they have for themselves, their famiies and friends.

    The beautiful thing, more often than not, those who have decide to share freely, as you have. 

     Because of your generosity (and my hard work) I have benefitted greatly from your free information by becomming a better trader.  Being a better trader is exactly reflected in more $$'s for me. 

     Therefore it seems only fair and right to donate, dodge banners or pay membership to give something back in order to thank and to support your efforts to continuing sharing your incredibly valuable information. 

    As example of similar efforts to yours, Jubak, Financial Sense, Minyanville, ScottRedler of T3live recently all grappled with this issue after, like you, they put out tremendous amounts of valuable free information but found, like you, their expense out weighing their altruistic desire.   They approached their followers and settled on various memberships fees.  

    I sincerely thank you Dan for helping me to become  a better trader.  I am happy to support you with whatever you choose to keep your writings out there.  

    I toss in my vote with so many well written comments before mine in particular, Gregory Hus, James from London and Gil.

    Pavleen of Idaho, USA

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  37. Dan,
    Your blog is a great value and service. A donate button is a great idea. Consider limiting comments is also perfectly reasonable in whatever way you choose. Thanks for your generosity-many of us would be glad to have this a 2-way street. I should also send highest regards to you from many members of the Rambus1 forum where your blog is regularly praised.
    All the best!

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  38. Just ask for some pennies!
    Check out this site, it might be your solution:
    http://www.nanotransactions.com/

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  39. Dan,

    First of all I really appreciate this blog and read it every day. The wisdom expressed in your writings has great value to me and I thank you for the time you take to put your market thoughts on this blog.

    I agree with you that the best course for you to take right now would be to opt for a Donate system based on the status quo of your blog. However, if you choose to let folks in on your trades then you should structure your blog as a fee based system (perhaps 2 and 20 haha).

    Best,
    Bob

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  40. Thanks Dan for all you've contributed! I say go with whatever brings more peace to your life.
    Nothing is more valuable than peace of mind.
    Thanks!

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  41. Dan,
    You are a rare, gifted thinker and teacher, so I hope you will continue writing. You are the best guide to the markets that I know. Hopefully your writing can be structured so that it enhances your life rather than detracts from it, and accruing income from it might be helpful so you can continue writing and teaching permanently. I agree with the comment above that you should be syndicated, and I also think that eventually you should write some books. Thanks for all that you have contributed already to help educate us readers.

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  42. Dan, I wouldn't worry about banner ads, they may cause others to compromise what they write but I doubt you will be influenced by them to do so. One or two won't clutter things up.

    Your straight shooting as you see it is appreciated.

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  43. Dan, I would go with the adds. We already now that you don't do this blog for the money but because passion. I would not be bothered to see some adds around. I am not too sure if a Donate bottom would bring enough revenue for you. I enjoy to read your analysis but I would not pay for any subscription simply because I do not make money from trading.

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  44. Long-time reader here. I don't mind ads, and I wouldn't mind paying for your content either. Do what you will.

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  45. Dan I think the readers comments are tiring and time consuming for you to attend to. It is like having a kinderschool (I am one of the pupils) Perhaps readers would need to pay to comment/ask a question and Senior members could comment and add content and intelligent conversation for free (readers would benefit and not waste time trying to get a rise out of you) Thank you for your patience thus far.

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  46. If Fed reverses ZIRP then its stock market & housing mkt will collapse. There is very little economic recovery as confirmed by the Money Velocity Chart. Nice video on this : http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/85680/steen-jakobsen-expect-30-stock-market-correction-2014

    If the Fed continues ZIRP then it will send the following message : "if 6 years & trillions of QE & ZIRP cannot cure the US economy of Deflation, What Can" . This means that FeD has NO EXIT POLICY frm money printing. This dents confidence in the central bank. It leads to a different type of inflation called HYPERINFLATION. Which is very different from Normal Inflation. In hyperinflation the excess reserves at banks and with masses are dumped at light speed as people hoard hard assets.

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  47. Dan,

    How long can FED presidents keep giving opposing comments to delay ZIRP reversal without any REAL Rate Hike?

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    1. Maybe the fed has no more room to pretend. Last weeks dovish fed comments sent out a message that deflation has upper hand. Then why did gold rise?

      Reason Why Gold has Bottomed :

      Dovish Fed = Never-ending Easy Money Policy, due to incurable deflation. Hyper liquidity can become hyper inflation via the velocity of money in a crisis of confidence of the dollar.

      Hawkish Fed = Inflation Rising.

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  48. I therefore conclude that FED cannot get normal inflation because the middle class will never borrow n spend all the free money created. Gold Silver will remain depressed until the above "failure of confidence + hyperinflation scenario" plays out.

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  49. Dan,

    I second all the comments above praising your work, and as a full-time professional trader, I can say that I have learned a lot from listening to you and reading your posts and that I am significantly more profitable because of it (although my space is more in the equity areas than commodities). You are one of the few writers who consistently have actionable commentary and I certainly hope you will keep writing in some form, especially since there are so few people writing who actually trade and can communicate things like the difference between what "should" happen and "is happening". Also, there are many people focused on equities, but very few (actually none I can think of) with your level of consistent insight in the commodity space.

    As far business model ideas, you might want to consider something like what Brian Shannon does at alphatrends.net where he has one or two free posts per week and the daily posts require a nominal fee. Peter Brandt's model seems similar with his blog posts and his advisory letter. And a donate button would be great too! You certainly deserve to gain from all the time you put into this and all the value you add.

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  50. Hi Dan,

    Just back from my week holiday.
    To be quick, my point of view :
    - there is nothing wrong with ads, as we would keep reading your comments for free and I don't see why a few ads would disturb readers who appreciate this blog, and if it can be an additional source of revenue for you, so be it.
    - there is nothing wrong with a donate button, as you are forcing no one to pay, but are giving the possibility to those who think your information provides real value and helped them make real gains to send you a bit of money as a thanks for the valuable information they found, so why not offer the possibility, once again?
    Both those options can only generate some profit vs the current situation, without forcing anyone to pay anything.
    Then given the amount of money generated, you may decide how much time and what priorities to give to this blog (hoping that trading and family will remain your top priorities whatsoever :)).
    Have a nice week :)

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  51. Dan, you are so profesional and especially objective, you are great!

    both options (donate + ads) are prefered.

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  53. 1. You've got to do what's best for you and your family.
    2. I'm a fellow blogger in the gold/silver space and I've been online for 10 years in various niches.
    3. I subscribe to 20+ RSS feeds in the gold/silver area. Your site is the best of them all. You produce highly relevant information and insights on a range of markets that is truly valuable. Your traffic rankings in Alexa, Compete and Quantcast are high showing you have a large loyal band of followers who show up regularly to see your thoughts and read highly relevant content that you've prepared for them. You've got high traffic without using email to drive traffic to your site.
    4. You're worried about monetizing your site...But your first concern should not be monetization, but to build an email list. An email list is a truly valuable asset. Look at John Mauldin. For 10 years he wrote an investing email each week - till he grew a list of 2 million plus readers. He didn't promote anything for 10 years (except for the occasional book that he wrote.) But he was able to alert his readers to each of his blog posts using his emails. After 10 years, he decided to capitalize on his email list. That list of 2m+ readers is worth a huge amount to him. He can use that list for his retirement. Go to his site and see what he is doing with it now.Monetizing your site will get you some benefit now. But imagine what opportunities you have later on if you start building a list now. Look at Jim Sinclair's site. He has a list for jsmineset and one for TRX. He's just notifying people occasionally by email at the moment...But think about how he can softly promote TRX if he wants to in the future.
    5. Once you've started collecting emails, just stick some google ads up on your site - just like Jim Sinclair. They don't affect ones experience with his site at all. And with the traffic you've got, you will get a few thousand a month from just doing that.
    6. Curate some posts. When you come across highly relevant articles, write an intro, paste the part of the article that is relevant, and write a conlusion. You will be able to provide a brader experience for your readers that they will truly value. And it takes so little time. You end up increasing the value of your blog to your readers with a lot less effort than all the individual posts you are doing now. And as a side benefit, you'll find your traffic goes up a lot (six-fold in some cases). Your population of readers values the extra insights you provide. And it takes you a lot less time.
    6. Look at dividendgrowthinvestor.com (not my site), but he does all the above (emails, google adsense and curating) very cleverly - though he does not even write individual intros and conclusions. He uses blogger, the same platform as you. His motivation is actual dividend investing - he has a full time job drilling oil wells in addition to his blog.
    7. Sure, you can put up a donate button - perhaps suggesting readers to buy you a cup of coffee. i.e $5 or so.
    8. The most valuable thing you can do is build an email list. You don't have to monetize that list now, but think of the opportunities you will have in the future, for instance, if you get ill and can't write like you do now. (It has happened to me). Or you retire from trading, but you can leverage your list in any manner of ways.
    9. To summarize: Build a list, put up google adsense, curate some posts, and if you still want, put up a donate button. In that order.
    Best of luck, Dan. Let us know what you end up deciding. I truly value your blog.

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