"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's free work will soon be available at www.traderdan.biz

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Iraq Cities Fall to Terror Groups - Oil soars

Watching this disaster unfold before our eyes makes me sick beyond words can express. To realize how many of our men and women gave their lives or were horribly wounded and left crippled and shattered to secure the cities that have now been handed back on a platter to the terror groups looking to form their long cherished Islamic Caliphate, fills me with disgust and contempt towards an administration that has no comprehension how reckless its foreign policy is.
Better yet, it has no foreign policy whatsoever. Since when does one secure a country and then abandon it without having any sort of Forces Agreement in place?

Our top military generals who understood the region and were involved in the war effort there, all warned that this is exactly what would happen. They were ignominiously ignored by an administration that has snatched one defeat out of the jaws of victory after another.

Now what? I remember seeing those Iraqi citizens with their ink-stained fingers voting for their leaders. Now some of them are being beheaded.

Look, whatever your view towards the Iraq war might have been, it is now a fact that our troops have seen their blood, sweat, tears and sacrifice thrown away and spat upon by their commander in chief. Imagine if this is what we had done after WWII? I was watching one soldier's interview last evening who had fought in battles to secure these exact cities say he now understood something of what the troops who had fought in Vietnam felt when they watched the helicopters leaving Saigon.

Crude oil is rightfully now pricing in a disruption to world oil supplies as a result of the barbarians on the move. 

 Gold is rising higher as fear now settles in upon the world once again over the possibility of the major oil regions in the South of Iraq eventually falling under their control. One owns gold for these very reasons but if I hear a single gold perma-bull crowing about their yellow metal god rising and rejoicing on that account, I think I will spit out of disdain. The more I try to put myself in the place of those soldiers whose deaths have been so cheapened by this administration, the more I want to weep for my nation.

What a wretched and yet completely avoidable disaster. I feel like I am watching a slow motion train wreck of my beloved country unfolding before my eyes. In every area of the US, we are witnessing a disintegration of all that we hold dear. I am not sure what is worse - that this is happening so blatantly or the fact that nearly 50% of the US citizenry is completely ignorant of the demise of the nation. While they sit and watch their damned reality TV shows their nation is falling apart.

From a technical chart standpoint, crude oil has broken out above key chart resistance near $105 and is currently at a nine month high! Look for this market to be well supported as long as the Iraq oil fields and production are vulnerable. Who knows where this market might run at this point? It is now at the mercy of events on the ground in Iraq. As of yet, I have read of no planned response to the ISIS advance. Maybe our current administration will wait until Baghdad falls and then come up with something, whatever that might be.

In contradistinction to the trumped up sensationalism that was reported on the perma gold bull sites when it came to Ukraine, anything that impacts the world oil markets is a much more serious concern. Notice how bonds are being bid higher, equities are falling and crude is soaring. Markets really do worry about anything that deals with a major oil producing region because crude oil is the life-blood of the world's economic engine.

Copper is sinking lower on the news as it fears higher oil prices potentially choking further an already sluggish global economy. We were reminded of this with total's retail sales and the jobless numbers. Both served to reinforce the notion of an economy that remains fragile. Then one throws on top of that the potential for higher oil/energy prices, and it is not hard to understand the "oil tax" effect on growth.

Silver is following gold today instead of copper and has managed to best some selling near the $19.25 level that was holding it in check. With hedge funds on the net short side of the silver market, there is definitely some short covering occurring with this Iraq development.

Gold has easily punched through $1270 as the bears run for cover on this news. Now the big question is whether or not the bulls can take it up through $1280 and hold it there. If they can, we have something going.

I will get a chart of gold up later today _ I want to see how it handles itself later in the session and want to watch the mining shares to see if they can take out any key chart resistance levels. Letting the dust settle somewhat after these news events rock markets is sometimes the best thing to do before formulating a trading response. One can move in and out very quickly to take advantage of some short term price spikes or drops, but making a longer term strategic decision around something so volatile as this is unwise. Be careful that you do not build too large of a position in anything. Besides, it does not take much to make some nice short term gains when markets move this much anyway as a little can go a long way.


  1. Just a matter of time before the Civil War breaks in the good ole US.
    Been seeing so much consolidation, NO JOB GROWTH, small business getting slaughtered, tons of BS regulations, destruction of industries, pipelines on hold, Energy to skyrocket, Obama is a traitor, Cantor defeat is wonderful as we slip closer and closer to the final straw which will bring on the US second civil war. All hail the Muslim Chief in Command.

  2. Ummmm . . . .Dan, Iraq was pretty secure before the US invasion under pretense of WMD during Bush II admin. Just wasn't secure to the liking of the global hegemon.

    I agree wholeheartedly with your sentiment that the loss of life (of all nationalities and religious faiths) due to that travesty of foreign policy is sick beyond words.

  3. Andyrama;

    we are not going to use this blog to debate the Iraq War. It is a fait accompli.

    What I am dealing with is the sacrifice of our troops that died there or where horribly injured or maimed.

    I personally am sick of the entire Mid-East and the barbarism that resides there. More reason to develop our own sources of oil.

    1. Dan,

      I was trying to point out two things.

      1 - It is not "this" administration that destabilized Iraq. Blue team foreign policy or Red team foreign policy . . .it's all the same

      2 - that the loss of life no matter the nationality or religious faith is a travesty. American lives are no more, nor any less, valuable than the 100,000s of lives of peaceful Iraqi citizens who were also killed and maimed.

      The Iraq war is not! a fait accompli. It just reignited and now more people are dying.

    2. Andyrama;
      I will let you get the last word so that you feel better.


    3. Dan,
      I could not agree more with this comment above. To think that we sacrifice our people in an area where we have no place being is horrific. To think in addition all the innocent people in this god forsaken place have to endure more suffering is equally outrageous.

      This country is polarized but when we consider our own people and the ones we are trying to protect being victimized. It may bring many of us together.

  4. Did not think that the MENA situation could get more FUBAR but once again, current events have proved me wrong. Sad.

  5. No question about it we have no leader(s), only invisible men making trillions somewhere, maybe the Eqyptian unnamed man who put OBIE through school. Damn shame we all have to produce everything in this country to work for a living while the "puppet" has been able to seize control of the monetary system, military and "hearts and minds" of 50% of America without a shred of evidence he was anything more than a Terrorists in the first place. Again I call your attention to the following: Now we can add many more to this list and it will be updated again in the near future. To Understand Who and What John Kerry Is You Only Need To Understand His Boss.
    Mr. Obama ONLY Chooses To Appoint A Certain Type Of Cretin As Is So Well Illustrated By The Following List.
    Valerie Jarrett - Marxist - Communist - Top Obama Advisor
    Bill Ayers - Marxist - Communist - Convicted Domestic Terrorist
    Bernadine Dorn - Communist / Marxist / Convicted Domestic Terrorist
    David Axlerod - Communist / Marxist - Was a Writer for a Communist Newspaper /Member of CPUSA
    Rev. Jeremiah Wright - Radical White-Hating Racist who Obama offered $150,0000 to keep quiet in 08
    Derrick Bell - Radical White Hating Racist and one of Obama's top mentors from Harvard
    Frank Marshall Davis - White-Hating Marxist Communist Who Was Integral Part of Obama's Young Life
    Carl Davidson - Communist / Marxist - Former Leader of the Chicago New Party and Staunch Maoist
    Anita Dunn - Communist / Marxist / Maoist - Commended Chairman Moa for his slaughter of the Chinese
    Jodi Evans - Communist / Marxist - Avid Supporter of the Extremely Anti-American Group Code Pink
    Sam Felson - Socialist / Communist - Ran Obama Campaign Blogs
    Patrick Gaspard - Communist / Marxist - Tied to ACORN and Very Active with Obama and the CPUSA
    Van Jones - Communist Marxist - Close Friend - Founder & Leader of the Communist group STORM
    Jeff Jones - Communist / Marxist - Close Obama Friend and Colleague, very close ties to Ayers & Jones
    Marilyn Katz - Communist / Marxist - Close Friend of Obama & Axlerod, Head of SDS with Bill Ayers
    Rashid Khalidi - Communist / Marxist - Close Friend, Head of the Anti American/Israel PLO
    Mike Klonski - Communist / Marxist - Gave nearly $2Million to the Obama Campaign in 08
    Mike Kruglik - Communist / Socialist / Marxist - Teaches Saul Alinski Methods
    John McKnight - Communist Socialist / Marxist - Close Friend, Teaches Saul Alinski Methods
    Khalid Al-Mansour - Close Friend, White-Hating Racist, Close Supporter of the Bl a c k Pant!es
    Alice Palmer - Communist Marxist - Close Friend - Picked Obama to Replace her in IL State Senate
    Zach Pollet - Communist / Marxist - Close Friend and Political Director for ACORN Project Vote
    Tony Rezko - Close Friend and Convicted Felon Who Assisted Obama in thepurchase of his House
    Wade Rathke - Close Friend and Advisor, Founder of ACORN
    Joel Rogers - Close friend and Advisor - Founder of The new Socialist Party
    Goerge Soros - Communist / Socialist / Economic Destroyer / One of Obama's Puppet Masters
    Percy Sutten - Top Campaign Fundraiser and Mentor ot the New B l a c k Pant!es Party.
    Madeline Talbot - Communist / Socialist - One of Obama's Top Mentors at ACORN
    Quentin Young - Communist Marxist - One of Obama's long-time close friends and Personal Physician
    You are not simply judged by the company you keep...
    You are Defined by It.

  6. Any questions about who or what he is should end and very soon. We need to get on with getting back to what we stand for in this country and is not anything that is coming from this WHITE HOUSE.

  7. Sorry Dan, I was busy trying to work for awhile, but it seems as if we are still in the grip of a Depression, recession, and deflation at the same time. It is what it is, and I wish we could unwrap the tentacles so we can work freely, live freely. We may get a chance to die freely soon. It disgusts me completely and I cannot get over it.

  8. Thanks for the comments Dan.
    Looks like my comments from 1hour ago are better suited for this thread then the last one.

    "Looks like the Iraq premium in gold is underway just like it was regarding Ukraine.

    The situation developing there promises to unravel all other underlying powder kegs in the region that thus far unbelievably haven't ignited yet.
    Recent Iran/Saudi/Israeli silence even before this Iraq situation is telling imho and the situation (ISIS) reeks of a planned alternative reason (Syria) why it's happening.
    Time will tell but the gears for something larger are still in motion."

    The biggest benficiary of this renewed chaos would seem to be Iran in the long term as they witness their long time rival disintegrate away.
    How long will it take for an ISIS(L?) insurgent to commadeer a civilian Iraqi airplane and use it as a weapon? That's a bad thought but given the extensive control they are exerting they essentially have a full range of options.
    Baghdad being in danger of being overrun is a MAJOR event. The battle for Baghdad (again!) is only a matter of time.

    Thank goodness that Iraq lacks nuclear weapons that potentially might've been seized. :-0

  9. good grief. i liked coming here to escape the partisan (and especially the wing-nut) bullshit. no Obama isn't a communist, far from it. he has barely strayed from the trajectory of the last president, who was no communist either. truth is that the both the D's and the R's have been drifting to the right for 30 years now, ever since Reagan. call it neoconservative, or neoliberal, but we don't have communism, we do not have socialism. have you looked under an overpass lately? (counted the homeless in your town?)

    the only decent excuse for trashing Obama more than Bush is because he is who we got now.

    just to prove how non-partisan i am, i'm glad Cantor got canned, even if it took a teabagger to do it. i hate all politicians quite equally. the more extreme to either side, the more i hate them. btw. this Brat guy won't get very far anyway - the Ayn Rand social darwinism crap is all but done.

    yes, the situation in Iraq stinks Dan. but as i recall, the first major involvement in Iraq by US troops was in 1991, when i believe Obama was just finishing grad school. no time to fact check that however, but point made.

    peace all... we all are supposed to be on the same team here.

    1. Peckerwood; We first tangled with Saddam > he went into Kuwait, needing $ > damn near going broke fighting Iran, which btw he started, and he did use gas both vs. Iran and his own Kurds. Bush went in there to preserve his interests, since his company Zapata had been in there for years. And oh, btw, his daddy Prescott had a little issue concerning consorting with the enemy (Nazi Germany). But hey, anything to make a buck, right? Just ask the youngest son who never went to prison > his failed S&L role in Colorado. Just another Keating, McCain, John Glenn parasitic thief, but hey, there is no double standard in this country is there?

    2. can't disagree with any of that. here is a link you will like. note how different the two parties really are in the USA, at least in these two dimensions. also note how libertarian doesn't have to mean right wing - not at all in fact. i land in the middle between right and left, and about half way down the libertarian axis. i have no illusions of liking any candidates for 2016, not at the Federal or State level. i wish more people understood what is meant by the illusion of choice. (or the Hegelian Dialectic)


  10. Well, it looks like The Long Hot Summer is beginning. Somehow we do not think we are going to like this movie like we did the 1958 version. Take care everyone and be loose and quick to fold losers.

  11. Dan,
    You can't expect to comment on Iraq, and then not have people on your site add their thoughts. I thought it was unfair to criticize Andyrama for expressing his thoughts. This debacle in Iraq is on Bush, not Obama. That being said, I can't tell you how sick to my stomach I am to think of all the people who have lost their lives needlessly for this war that never should have been fought.

    1. Bobbo;

      I specifically noted that whatever your thoughts about the war, watching the cities that US military soldiers fought and died for to secure was sickening to me.

      I was not commenting on the fact that some were opposed to the war. That is a fait accompli.

      That being said, the nation was secure while Bush was in office. Do not insult me by defending Obama. this child of a man is a disgrace to the military and the nation.

    2. I didn't insult you because I never defended Obama. All I said was this was Bush's war. Never commented on Obama's Presidency. My other point had nothing to do with who supported or didn't support the war, just that Andyrama should be able to express his opinion without being admonished.

    3. Bobbo;

      Who the hell cares whose damned war it was? The fact is Obama is the one whose policies have resulted in the loss of the very cities that our troops bled and died to secure. He is the one that yanked out American forces without having any plan to secure the hard fought gains of our soldiers AGAINST the counsel of well-respected generals, not Mr. Bush.

      That was my point and it still is. Mr Rama decided to make it all about the lives of others in the region because of a war he felt that should not have been fought. That is his opinion but it has NOTHING TO DO with my feelings and regards for our soldiers.

      Get that through your damned head already.

      Good grief - maybe I should move to a private fee-paid blog in order to get rid of people who love admonishing the host because I dare to express my personal regards for our soldiers and how deeply I care about their sacrifices. Then I would not have to put up with the constant nitpicking and crap from those such as you and Mr. Rama.

  12. dan , you write "I am not sure what is worse - that this is happening so blatantly or the fact that nearly 50% of the US citizenry is completely ignorant of the demise of the nation. " I think it is so blatant because at least 50% is completely ignorant of everything except how to cash their gov . check . I feel your pain over the troops .

    1. joeb;

      That is an excellent point and a well-crafted comment.

      I have a couple of friends who both did tours in Iraq and I cannot repeat what they have said about this. No one can understand what they have gone through by following orders to go and do their duty only to watch what they bled and died for go up in smoke because of an incompetent man who has nothing but contempt for them unless they were there.
      It just sickens me to think of them throwing away their lives now for what???

  13. It was never about oil, if it was you would still be there. It was about the arms and private security companies who made billions out of the war both during and afterwards. I saw a figure recently that 4 trillion has been spent on security since 9/11.

    Bin laden could not have wished for a better result from 9/11 in that Bush reacted exactly as he thought he would turning the USA into an pirrah in the middle east and wasting trillions of money that you guys could not afford.

    I also weep at the loss of life in Iraq both British, American and other nationalities but it was always going to be this way as there was no real objective other than to make lots of money for the arms and security industry. Just look at how G4S have grown over the last decade and you can see what I mean.

    If the western world was not so broke no doubt we would be going into syria now but we have no money left so can only watch from the sidelines. What a bloody mess they have made of the world, the bush's, the Blair creature etc etc.

  14. It's about oil and future pipeline territory and it's about arming allies and mercenaries etc. but it's also another chance or plan to get at Iran in this next phase of Iraq's disembowelment.

    At some point Iran gets more involved in Iraq. How could they not? In chaos, there's opportunity for Iran and others. But that also works both ways.

    Several years ago I posted my thoughts on how the US withdrawal from Iraq made little sense. My thoughts echo TD's on the senseless loss if life, limb and treasure the US shed over there in multiple wars.
    It makes no sense to walk away from the spoil of war after you've "won" unless your banking on the subsequent power vaccuum that usually results afterward.
    It's happening in Iraq, Libya and it'll happen in Afghanistan and (hopefully not!) in Ukraine.

    Could it be that this next foray into Iraq provides the opportunity or eventual pretext to take on Iran if it's alleged by Iraq or the US or SA that Iran is taking advantage of the situation and operating extensively within Iraq.

    That was my guess back then and it's still my guess. You knew sooner or later we'd be be back in Iraq.
    I just had no idea it would be this fast or under what circumstance. I guess the same could be said of Libya and Afghanistan or maybe even Pakistan eventually given their recent Taliban worries.

    The only thing that makes sense to me regarding the quick withdrawal of Iraq is that we realized the eventual power vaccuum would be filled by Iran. How could it not?

    No matter what, this Iraq situation promises to become a blackhole of chaos combined with the fog of war while a relative MSM news blackout of events on the ground over there gets underreported.
    At some point an Iranian angle appears out of this. This situation in Iraq is far from a quick fix because at some point boots on the ground will become necessary if the size and scope of the ISIS invasion is accurate.

    Might they even be Iranian boots?

    1. No completely incorrect. If it was about the oil you would not have left you would have had a large number of bases still in place as you have done all over the world after such conflicts. This was a big setup to make money for GBs friends in the arms industry and the security firms. As Dan has posted, you can get your supplies from elsewhere so it was never about the oil supplies. I cannot believe anyone fell for that red herring.

    2. I gave multiple reasons David, not just the one you are adamently focused on.
      Why does it need to be all or nothing (oil)? Can't it be multiple reasons? Of course it can.

      For whatever real reasons that Iraq is imploding I think we can all agree it's a shame what has happened there in the past, present and future.

      As far as red herrings go....c'mon, really?
      Have a nice day.

  15. This is why it is difficult to discuss politics and still remain civil. Both sides (and there are sides) just shout past each other and no one listens. It seems to me that Dan is simply saying that we should finish what we started while others are saying we should never have started it in the first place. I agree with both points. You break it you own it. I would prefer it if my country would learn to mind it's own freaking business but we need to take responsibility for our mistakes. Let's try to be civil and respect differences of opinion.

  16. Dan.
    Thank you for expressing my feelings about this sad and polarizing situation better than I could.
    Don't let them grind you down. Just delete or ban as needed.

  17. I cannot agree so we will have to agree to disagree. If it was about the oil why not leave a base there to protect it? You will not go back in those days are over if you have any chance of not going bankrupt. I also do not think the American public would stand for it.

  18. Dan, I have probably followed you as long or longer than anyone who has responded. I still have some of Jim Sinclair s newsletters from the 1970s. I have great respect for your work and your concern for our country. I do not believe, however, that President Obama is any more responsible for this new chaos in Iraq than President Bush. The seeds of this disaster were sown in the minds and actions of Wolfowitz, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the other neoconservative dogooders who reap the same unintended consequences that the liberal dogooders reap. A pox on both their houses. After Vietnam (which we got into under a Democratic administration and it was a Republican President who was in official when we left) you would think we might learn. But, as the saying goes: those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The failures of the present administration are as predictable as the failures of the Keynseian economic policies we continue to follow even though they continue to fail time and time again. Saying President Obama is at fault now has some truth but the larger truth is that we continue to follow failed systems whether in economics or politics. When those policies systems fail some will say we didn't do enough to finish it properly. Paul Krugman will die before he would admit that government and the Fed have thrown enough money at our social problems. Donald Rumsfeld would die before he would admit that we have spent enough money and lives on the endless succession of wars we have fought. In the end they are the same men with the same response: we would have been victorious if only we had spent enough. The road to ruin is paved with good intentions. Once one starts down the road whether in economic policy foreign policy and that road has been shown by history to be a path ending in failure then we can only expect failure. So in that regard we can all agree: Mission Accomplished.
    Ron Paul was a voice crying in the wilderness maybe his son can help lead our country down a new path. God bless you, God bless us everyone.

    1. Orr2749;

      Thanks for the kind words.

      I agree with you about the neocons always looking for wars that they can embroil us in. I never understood the rationale for going into Iraq in a big way when AQ was in Afghanistan. I did agree that we could not let AQ use that as a staging area to plot attacks on our nation. (this is the reason that I am now concerned about what is happening in Iraq.)

      The point I was making the other day about Obama utterly creating a disaster over there in Iraq now is that our boys went in ( whether or not some of us here agree or disagree about that war in the first place) and fought, bled and died. The least we should have done is to leave in place a small force to keep the area from falling back into the hands of groups like this ISIS group which want to have a safe haven place from which to plan and launch their jihad stuff.

      The guys that I know in the military who did tours there are sickened beyond words ( and furious) that Obama essentially made the deaths and severe injuries of their fellow soldiers meaningless.

      I do worry about future attacks on the US and do not want to see these groups have a secure area where they can operate. This is the reason that I think the US should stop this "make the middle East a democracy" crap. Those dictators are indeed brutal but not one of them wanted these terror groups operating within their borders. Now that the US has effectively kicked them out ( Saddam Hussein, Mubarak, Qhadifi, etc.) those nations are now prone to fall under the control of terror groups who are usually well funded and better organized than anyone else.
      In other words, the shortsighted idiotic policy of promoting "democracy" in a region of the world which does not want it or understand it, has resulted in us actually making matters WORSE for our national interests here at home because we have allowed these groups to now operate in regions in which they were once shut out.

      As far as Rand Paul goes, I like the guy and hope he does well. Parts of the republican establishment cannot stand him however, just like they hated his Dad.

      Have a good weekend. We are certainly going to need to secure God's blessing on our nation once again if we have any hope of getting out of the current mess it is in.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.