"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, May 12, 2014

Good Week for Corn, Bean Planting

The weekly USDA Crop Progress reports were issued this afternoon and they showed a big jump (expected by the way ) in both corn and bean planting. The US Corn crop is now 59% planted compared to 26% a year. It has ahead of the 5 year average of 58%. That is a huge jump from last week's 29% planted. 

I keep telling you how advancements in farm equipment have enabled today's US farmer ( the best in the world anywhere) to get their crop into the ground with incredible speed. Some of these guys are always ready to jam prices north as soon as they see the least bit of delay in planting but too many of them are stuck in the past.

Corn is 18% emerged compared to only 5% a year ago and the 5 year average of 25%. The crop is a bit behind but more seasonal temps should kick it higher.

Beans are now 20% planted compared to 5% a year ago and the five year average of 21%. A week ago only 5% of expected bean planting had been accomplished. Bean planting is essentially right on time and target.

Both numbers should provide some pressure to their respective pits but the price action during open outcry trading today took this into account to a large extent already. We will have to see if we get some additional downside in the Asian trade or if the numbers will provide only a bit of profit taking by bears.

Winter wheat showed 42% of the crop rated Very Poor to Poor, compared to 38% last week. That hot, dry weather took its toll on the crop. Traders expected to see this deterioration however with the thinking today being that the widespread rains over the weekend will keep the deterioration from worsening. Depending on the weather from this point out, we might have seen the worst of the winter wheat crop ratings.

It is 44% headed compared to last year's 28% reading and is just slightly behind the 5 year average of 46%. We might see wheat pop a bit higher in Asian trade off of these numbers. We'll have to see.


  1. A Memorial Day Top coming, and if that ain't it, we try again on the 4th of July; swb

  2. Investors and historians will look back at this time and marvel at "The Guilded Age" all of us are now experiencing in real time.


    - Bear markets in stocks have been made obsolete

    - Infinite deficits can be financed with ease at rates under 1%

    - Any and all rise in commodity prices can be instantaneously squashed by Central Banker "gum flapping".

    - Agricultural boom due to technological advancements means we have a infinite amount of food available.

    - Fracking and cracking boom in energy has made the United States the new Saudi Arabia of the world.

    - Inflation can be stopped cold by the ongoing and continuing "Disasterous Endgame" happening as we speak in the metals and mining sector.

    - Unprecedented amount of wealth creation by blowing even bigger bubbles in all sorts of paper assets, weather it is Treasury bonds, muni bonds, common stocks, derivatives, etc.

    - The consumer has enjoyed a never to be repeated windfall of cheap interest rates, being able to live in their upside down homes making no mortgage payment for years and years.

    - Fantastic advancements in social media, consumer electronics, creating a "wealth boom" witnessed by the fantastic prices paid for companies such as WhatsApp and Dr. Dre Beats

    I don't recall witnessing a more inviting climate for consumer spending, industrial advancements, and wealth building as we are experiencing right now.

    Welcome to "Nirvana"

    Stay in the System.

    1. And where federal deficits of 200 billion were once considered immoral and impossible, now federal deficits of 500 billion are considered as achievements. Yes the US has come a long ways.

    2. With 100% exceptions: The consumer is tapped out, the banks are not lending to small business' and small business' grow to big businesses. Unless the same thieving Banks give consumers "debt forgiveness" they were given the story moves forward. The only thing that has been fixed is through fraud and fakery. Mark to market balance sheets from the fed are thoroughly fraudulent. US debt is approaching peak escape velocity. Jobs for the average citizen are non existent or non paying. Interest rates cannot be sustained. Stock prices reflect zero, non existent growth. buybacks, fraudulent accounting (more inline with public accounting), wealth disparity reaching all time highs, payrolls continue to pull back, stock market volume continuing to decline, the US industries are hollowed out, etc..etc...etc...More BS.

    3. RUMOR: Germanys' bundesbank to consider providing QE. Answer: Through negative interest rates and good old Jim Sinclairs prophesy of deposit confiscation. HMMM I guess Jim is early but not wrong. Lets see how it plays out.

  3. I hope it's ok if I post on the last line, even if it's not the same topic.

    Silver chart :

    So silver is weak, can't break through the descending triangle formation, even though copper is going higher, now above 3.10.
    If copper fails itselft on its descending triangle resistance near 3.20 and heads back down towards sub 3 levels, I wonder what will happen to silver.


    1. P.S : to be transparent, I have a small sell stop order executed during the night on silver when we broke through 19.50, stop loss is at 19.60 and my minimum target is first to reach 19 $ back once more.
      I have no conviction about where silver prices will be willing to go.
      I'm just playing the confirmation that 19.60 was a resistance that silver didn't manage to get through, with a "decent" risk reward ratio.
      Also, I like to have a descending resistance along with me, which possibly will allow me to move my stop loss soon back at 19.50 and still be above that resistance, in order to have a zero loss or win trade once more.
      Meanwhile, I'm risking 10 cents on silver, plus commission of course. Odds are significant that I get stopped out, as usual.
      When I get bored, I become a gambler, not a trader :)

  4. Hi Hubert well done on your scalp short and concur that the descending triangle is silver has to break. Here is why I would beware shorting gold at the mo. This is a 10 minute spot chart and I am indicating why I think gold is likely to break to the upside at the moment. Note the green floor has risen plus gold did not reach the horizontal floor which may indicate the an upside ceiling breach. Obviously this is only a 10 min chart, just looking for early signs, longer term closes more influential.


    and closer


    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  5. QE, QE , QE, QE, It is our savior..NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!
    If we had taken our medicine in 2009, the large banks would be gone. Blaspehmous Blanfein would be in hibernation, Jamie Dimon would be BROKE (Rather than Richer than you!!), the US would be living in its' rightful place, government spending would be appropriate, the military industrial complex would not be sacrificing Ukranian kids, small business' would be growing, yes their would still be hardships, but wealth disparity would be less than at all time highs, stock brokers would be working for a living instead of whispering in the Feds ear. The world would me much more honest. Instead we get lies, lies, lies!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  6. Wolf-Wisdom, there's more than one way to skin a cat (masses), and they will utilize all of them. Heck, they'll invent several. The trick is to do it slowly enough and barrage and inandiate people with Austrian Eurovision-winning bearded drag-queen (I'm not making this up), so people would not notice they are being skinned alive. Heck, they are hailing the perpetrators as some kind of demi-gods who are there to bring us prosperity. How 'bout that? I start to think that we deserve what we get.

  7. Matthew 21:12
    "And Jesus went into the Temple of God, and cast out all those that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the MONEYCHANGERS, and the seats of them that sold doves. 12:13 And said unto them. It is written " My house shall be called the house of prayer; but ye have made it a DEN OF THIEVES".
    Modern day New York City, Wall Street and Washington DC's Fed Reserve building.
    LUKE 22:36 He said to them, "But now if you have a purse, take it and also a bag; and if you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one.

    Today, sell your stocks and buy an AK, you will need one.

  8. http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-hazardous-hunt-for-carry-why-the-em-rebound-isnt-real/?utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mailing+List+AM+Tuesday

    Mark please enlighten us. I want you to refute this with numbers please. Yes, please tell me exactly where this ends.

  9. "The tapering of (quantitative easing) is not the first step toward normalization," Blankfein said. He cited rising rates in long-term Treasury bonds and deficit reduction as steps that had already been taken.

    Deficit Reduction???? I guess he means slowing the pace? From an interview with Blasphemous Blankman..I mean blank, without a soul. If this man is doing Gods work then he is a follower of Satan himself. The only reason the deficit is slowing is because of more lies from Lew himself. Time to call a spade a spade, a serpent a serpent.

    1. http://www.effectivedemand.typepad.com/ Hubert and Dan; This guy is over my head, but instinctively I think he may be right and that the deflationists and kwn inflationists are all wrong and that there are no hellacious moves in front of us, but just meandering and trading mkts? swb

    2. Steve, I concur. Slow tectonic evolutionary changes in economy to last decades, as opposed to Super Nova moves in one or the other direction.

    3. Thanks Steve.
      Let's hope he's right...trading in a low inflation environment is all right for me :)

  10. I guess hiding $300-$500 Trillion in derivative based bets is fine with the US population. That Blythe Masters coming up with this dark pool madness is ok. That they that created this mess are the same ones profiting off of it. That they are so intelligent in their creations we should be bowing to them. I would say if they did not create, offshore, and continue us on this World Trade path that leads us to accept GE and others like them, for growths sake. Personally, I would rather roll out the guillotines and start that way. Who knows, no one where this leads, it depends on many things, war, civil unrest, destruction of debt, etc..etc..Lets just get it started.


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