"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Consumer Gift - Falling Gasoline Prices

The chart says it all - consumers are getting a nice gift in the form of lower gasoline prices here in the US. Let's see how long it continues....

52 comments:

  1. Stephen Leeb, acclaimed money manager of all the gardeners in my neighborhood is bullish silver; try and get an audited track record of his activities, like Greenspan back in the 70's folks and you will be very, very, disappointed; take care, most of the info on the net is very, very weak

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He is now out to a 5 year call on silver. Probably right because a lot of stuff will be higher in 5 years. But I am sure most people dont even know what they will eat for dinner. let alone plan for 5 years from now. So its pretty useless. I guess if you cant figure out what is going to happen next week, try the 5 year plan. Its ok, but dont then call yourself an expert on anything

      Delete
  2. Maybe I can not read charts, but it seems like gasoline prices are slightly greater than average for the last year. But in terms of the past couple of weeks we are benefitting.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I've been paying approx. $3.80/gal for a long time.

    Supposedly I live in a region that's at the end of a supply chain. What BS!
    Most of it's taxes and they just won't say so.

    I suppose it's better than $4 plus. :-/

    ReplyDelete
  4. what i see here is that we have higher prices now than at the same time last year so i guess we should expect it to pick up to around 3.20 by the time we hit july … but thats just me

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon - DPH;

      There is always a lag time between what you see at the wholesale level at the Nymex ( now CME Group ) and the retail price at the pump. That is because of the nature of the distribution system.

      Price at the pump will start to move lower. How much is not yet clear but it will happen. Then we have to watch to see if the unleaded moves higher again over at the CME. If it does, the price at the pump will move higher a bit later.

      Delete
  5. That DXY sure looking ominous. Will Mr. JIM be correct? Maybe, just maybe a few shekels on the shiny metal are in order. Mark? Calling the grand poohbah of disinformation.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Do I hear a bid for 78? Anyone? Or simply backfill for a slow drip to 79 then some mysterious rally due to more war .mongering and supposed safe haven bids. All bull ding.

    ReplyDelete
  7. In other news Morgan we will never see gold at1300 ever ever again Stanley reiterates aem overweight rating and increases price target. Wtf is going on with these people...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon;

      Is Morgan saying that $1300 is an absolute ceiling for gold or an absolute bottom? I am unclear as I have not read their comments?

      Delete
    2. banking analyst made pretty aggressive bearish call last week when we were around 1280 , claiming 1300 was the ceiling … jesse mentions it as well in his blog … i ll see if i find the report

      Delete
    3. Anon;

      WOW! Thanks for relaying that.

      I think most folks who regularly read this blog know that I am currently leaning towards taking a bearish view of gold for the time being because I think once the geopolitical events in the Ukraine get sorted out ( not that things cannot worsen first ), gold is going to lose some of its supporting factors.

      That being said, for Morgan to make such a call as a $1300 ceiling strikes me as outright fantasy. Long term one should have to take into account the huge sum of indebtedness engulfing the US and all the bad possible outcomes that could bring about. Aparently Morgan could care less.

      I would not be without some form of physical gold when I see the shape of the world monetary system, that is for sure. There is so much debt everywhere that it is mind-boggling. To think that all of that will get worked out somehow without the least hiccup is rather foolish if you ask me.

      Thanks again Anon.

      Delete
    4. no problem ... in my opinion , there is a battle going on between all these big players , and perhaps such an ego call was directed to other big guys who may be , or getting long , not to muppets like myself … in any case he doesnt say anything new … here is a summary in this link .

      http://www.mining.com/morgan-stanley-gold-price-wont-see-1300-again-92623/

      Delete
    5. here is a better one , its Joel Crane the comm strategist …
      http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-analysis?oid=239195&sn=Detail

      Delete
  8. It is who called what first, whose on second, they will all be right eventually. Place your bets and spin the wheel. Bradley, did you read Wynn' s comments? Borrowed 3.5 billion For a measly 185 million over 5 years. Don't u feel for Wynns companies? Brassey, their paying back with your chump change you are dropping out their on black Jack tables.

    ReplyDelete
  9. You know it is getting crazy when the .gov people start threatening shooting Fed employees. BAIL? I bet I couldn't get BAIL. I would be in JAIL. Ya gotta love this PONZI .

    ReplyDelete
  10. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-06/former-san-fran-fed-employee-threatened-murder-ex-fhfa-head-ed-demarco

    ReplyDelete
  11. Headline JAPAN IS BACK!!!!
    Whoops back open but certainly drowning in inflationary spiral of needed imported energy, food, and in great need of cheaper labor. Check they need some OBAMA WORKERS. POOR ABE. WHAT AN IDIOTIC POLICY AND TO OBEY THE KRUGMAN MASTERS. GOOD NITE ALL.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Back in early 2013 I wrote a post elsewhere that assessed Putin and my conclusion at the end of it was that Putin was the most dangerous man in the world or at least heading in that direction. I saw him as a wildcard.

    Back in December of 2013 (as the Ukraine situation was deteriorating) I wrote another post basically stating that Putin was going to have his Kruschev moment sooner or later.

    That moment is well underway and nothing has changed my mind. I believe we're just starting to witness a situation in Russia that progressively gets worse overall.

    He's fulfilling his Russian legacy as a dictator/conquerer.
    ~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~¤~

    Vladimir Putin signs ban on 'foul language' in films, books and performances
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed new legislation banning swearing in films, television broadcasts, books and public performances


    Andrew Marszal By Andrew Marszal
    2:47PM BST 06 May 2014

    Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, has signed a Soviet-style law banning swearing in films, television broadcasts, books and public performances.
    In a move harking back to the cultural conservatism of Russia's Communist years, books containing "foul language" will have to carry a special warning, and offenders may be subject to fines of up to £830.
    The text of the new law “bans the use of obscene language while ensuring the rights of Russian citizens to the use of the state language, and protecting and developing language culture,” the Kremlin said in a statement.
    Films containing banned words may be refused distribution, while actors using prohibited language face performance bans of up to three months, according to CNN.
    The law follows a similar measure passed in April 2013 which banned swearing in the media.

    Four colloquial words, including terms for male and female genitalia, as well as a term for a promiscuous female, are believed to have been identified by the new law for censorship, effective from July 1.
    Critics immediately decried the legislation as the latest crackdown on freedom of speech by the Russian strongman, who is a frequent critic of permissive Western culture.

    Mr Putin signed an anti-gay propaganda bill last year, imposing jail terms and fines on those who disseminate information aimed at minors "directed at forming non-traditional sexual set-up".
    Oleg Tabakov, the artistic director of the Moscow Art Theatre, reportedly described the new law as "excessive".
    Opponents also pointed to a rich tradition of colourful language in the country's most revered literature.
    "They want to designate their territory: this can be said, and this cannot," Vadim Rudnev, a prominent Russian philosopher, told the Moscow Times newspaper.
    "In reality it is a common practice to swear among the intelligentsia. When writer Maxim Gorky came to visit Tolstoy, who began to swear to him, he got upset. The truth was that by swearing Tolstoy was demonstrating that Gorky was part of the group."
    Alexander Pushkin, the Russian poet, also made frequent use of another of the banned words, which describes the act of fornication.
    Under another law also signed on Monday, popular online blogs which receive more than 3,000 daily page views will also be subject to the harsh new rules, effectively putting them on the same footing as mainstream media outlets.
    The legislation comes amid a flurry of new laws cracking down on the internet. From August, internet companies including Google will be required under Russia law to locate servers handling Russian traffic inside the country, and to store user data for a minimum of six months.

    telegraph.co.uk

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stop repeating and spreading mindless bullshit and media propaganda. if you cared even a bit about future of our kids in america you would also push for outlawing of porn and violence in movies, video games and everything thats degrading our society.

      how much good has it done for this country? this society is degrading FAST.

      Do you have any idea why Dan has those quotes up on his blog at the top????? Does it mean anything to you??

      Putin is a dictator? Lol! He is someone who has balls to say no to Washington and not afraid to punch back in the face when needed. Most "leaders" are simply soft puppets these days!

      You have no idea regarding that country/local politics and how people think and live there, so dont even comment or pretend like you know anything but what westernized media tells you!

      Delete
    2. Lighten up, Francis.

      How you could extrapolate all of that from my brief comments seems overreaching.

      Delete
    3. Thumbs way up 1inbluemoon! Most people are ignorant to the moral decay, they fail to realize that Putin is working to protect his people from the darker forces prevailing in western society.

      Delete
    4. DPH,

      1inbluemoon quite rightly pointed out your perspective doesn't seem to be very broad how's that over reaching?

      You stated "Putin is the most dangerous man in the world". Quite a statement.

      If you were an Iraqi citizen you might feel that Obama is the most dangerous man in the world. You get my drift, it's matter of perspective.

      IMO Putin is acting in a very rational manner, given the situation. However, rather than being amazed by the pictures coming out of the Ukraine, I am saddened and disgusted that average, ordinary people are being used as pawns by two superpowers bent on world domination that are playing what to them is some sort of "Great Game".

      We are all one species sharing the same Petri dish. If we can't learn to cooperate, we're surely doomed.


      Delete
  13. Anybody with high gas prices can come to southern CA. $4.20 and still rising.

    Part of this is directly due to the anti-global warming stance of the state government.

    ReplyDelete
  14. On the very short term, I'm bearish on gold until gold closes above 1310-1315 because of the 2day candle chart.
    Support at 1300 $, on the slower time unit (2 weeks candle chart)

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Sneha, I will boycott this website forever from now on.

      Delete
  16. The price of gasoline is not nearly as high as it should be, global worming notwithstanding. If it was, you wouldn't see all of these super big trucks driven by petite Asian looking ladies and all these SUVs, rush hours, and mad commuting of 2-3 hour to work in one direction. The gas price is heavily subsidized in this country, just like corn, so we should be consistent in our support of the free markets.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Given the high taxes included. I don't understand. Please explain.

      Delete
    2. Mike,
      If you had to drive around in Ireland or Scotland recently, as I had, it would be crystal clear to you (we are talking $8.37 per gallon here). You think that taxes and high gas prices are high just because you are used to the low prices, without looking outside US.
      What I am saying is that if there is huge demand at the current prices than the prices are not high. Once you see more people biking, walking, bussing etc. then we can talk about potential high gasoline cost.

      Delete
    3. Abraxas,

      I think you'll find that the higher prices you saw in Ireland are due to the spread between Brent and WTI, currency exchange rates PLUS higher taxes levied in the EU states. Add up all three and you get to $8.00+ pretty quick.

      I live in Canada and from time to time engage in the mental exercise of taking CDN pump price and adjusting for current US exchange and taxes and it always works out pretty close.

      BTW - The US has experienced a DECREASE in motor fuel consumption since the onset of the Great Recession.

      http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/what-does-declining-gasoline-consumption-mean/

      In the above link, Barry Rithotlz demolished the commonly disseminated notion that the decreased consumption is due to increased mileage of the US fleet.

      Delete
    4. Andyrama,

      You're probably right about the price. As far as the consumption goes, when the prices spiked up in the summer of 2008 (or whatever year that was) I saw tons of people hop on the bicycles etc. on the path that I take to get to my work. As soon as the prices subsided, the number of cyclist all but went down to zero.

      Delete
    5. I remember that increase in alt transportation well.

      Interesting, your observation that the new found religion of biking/walking didn't last.

      Delete
    6. IMHO using taxes and price to enact social change is immoral.

      Just my opinion.

      Delete
  17. Hilarious Fed speak....you cannot change the game any longer with lies, however, you continue and increase the beatings in intensity and severity. The only thing that happens is you create more and greater anger and feed larger resentments until it explodes. Good luck Fed but no longer will I believe anything these Tyrants speak ever again. Even drunks know the first step in getting clean is admitting "Powelessness". Oh how America continues its decline.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Yes, crashing gasoline prices again as it has been in the same trading range for 2 years. Each and every time gasoline spikes, a huge selloff results.

    And all of these gasoline price collapses have happened without Yellen even opening her mouth.

    Just wait until she really means business, and starts yapping about "price stability" and "inflation mandates", etc. Then you will see a huge wholesale collapse in gold, silver, oil, gasoline, grains, everything.

    We are currently living in the "Golden Age" of Central Banking, whereby any and all financial markets can be moved with ease by mere utterances from a few Central Bankers. Draghi, Yellen, Uncle Abe, any one of them can move global currency, stock, and commodity markets with ease simply by flapping their gums and spooking the Algo Wildebeest Herd into trading in the desired direction.

    Well, looking at my screen this morning it appears that gold is imploding again, European stocks rallying as if Ukraine never even happened, and of course, U.S. stocks will soon be trading at new highs as if yesterday's selloff never even happened.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Mark appears to me the bank's have rolled over. OMINOUS sign. Japan Inc. Sold off, more money printing is only solution. Not a solution just more deception and destruction. I guess the next great idea to keep $ from imploding is weakening the EUR. Really sick. When truth is obsolete then everyone eventually picks up their chips and walks away.

    ReplyDelete
  20. White Wolf

    Today is likely a buying opportunity for XLF and KRE, despite Jim Willie's constant screeching of Morgan Stanley's demise.

    When the economy recovers and interest rates start rising again, it there will be a spectacular boom in banking sector profits.

    ReplyDelete
  21. When. Lol..been 5 plus years. The recovery is going to be a slow depressing deterioration since no one admits truth Mark. You are a prime bind example who likes to profess the continued myths. Do you really believe what you write? I really would like to know that answer. Soulless people are running things and you believe and shout their lies. I love Dan's Jesse's site here. There is a man with a soul.

    ReplyDelete
  22. White Wolf

    Look around. Things are getting better. More jobs, more economic activity everywhere. I'm living in reality, not some "scroom and doom" fantasy. My business has never been better. Do you call that a lie?

    If things were really deteriorating, I would be seeing it first hand. But its the exact opposite. Construction is booming here, many small businesses are hiring, even though minimum wage is being increased.

    And stock prices are reflecting the reality of a slowly improving economy.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. More small businesses are closing than there are new ones being created.

      That puts a heavy load on the backs of the remaining businesses to hire enough people to increase the total number of jobs in the USA.

      Delete
  23. Deranged. Understand the meaning. I pray for you.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. White Wolf,

      I'm intrigued by Mark and his postings. I'm not convinced he believes what he writes. There is an air of sly sarcasm to his posts.

      I think he's taking long pulls from the Kool-Aid jug and then spitting it out when when the NSA isn't looking.

      Delete
    2. Andyrama:

      This is what I was trying to convey several articles back. Mark understands the situation. He knows that there is no "recovery" for the common people who are being and will be left behind, but only a recovery and advancement for the already privileged and established who are benefiting.

      He's just scoffing at the die-hard precious metals and hard assets community via dark satire.

      Delete
    3. Alice,

      If your take on Mark is accurate, perhaps he's scoffing at ALL the "market" participants.

      Delete
  24. Meanwhile, GLD and GDX imploding today.

    XLF is green.

    Stay in the System, LOL!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  25. He is a very sick individual. One whose mental cavity is limited to narcism. You have to pray for his type as they "KNOW not what they do" and are incapable of intelligent thought and compassion.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Would you mind taking this kind of talk to turds site or any other place where the fanatics gather. Book a q and a whatever but dont post it here.

      Delete
  26. Hi dan, what is your views on the increasing gold silver ratio? Seems that silver is always hitting harder than gold, especially in a downdrift which will allow us to see an increasing gold solver ratio. I personally think this is an important indicator for us to guage the onset of a reversal. Probably at 60?

    ReplyDelete

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