“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Saturday, April 5, 2014

COT Breakdown

Another Friday - another release of the Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC - let the entrail reading begin in earnest!

A caveat before we begin - the report only covers trading through the end of the combined pit and screen session on Tuesday of the current week. It therefore does not take into account the price action from Wednesday through the close of trading on Friday.

On Tuesday of last week ( 3-25-2014) gold closed at $1311.40. On Tuesday of this week, it closed at $1280 for a loss ( Tuesday - Tuesday ) of $31.60.

Here is what happened over that time period. Hedge funds were big sellers once again - therefore it should come as no surprise to see the price move lower. They bailed out of over 8000 long positions and added over 5500 NEW SHORT positions. The net impact was that they were sellers of some 13,687 contracts.

The other reportables, which include the big floor locals, CTA's, CPO's and other large private traders were also big sellers on the week. Their combined NET SELLING amounted to 4,724 contracts. By the way, this includes both futures and options combined for the funds and this other big group of speculators.

The combined selling of these large specs was 18,591 contracts.

The big commercial category were NET BUYERS on the week as were the Swap Dealers ( WHOOPS - there goes the theory of the evil bullion banks manipulating the price of gold lower). The combined NET BUYING from both these camps amounted to 14,858 contracts.

The balance was made up by the small spec category which were NET BUYERS of some 3,553 contracts.

In other words, we had the biggest speculators in the market selling with the commercial interests buying as price lost that $31.60.

This has been the pattern in gold since early 2001, more than a decade ago.

In some gold bug circles much ado was made about the big open interest drop in gold that occurred early in the week as if it was somehow a hugely significant market event and portended something big was about to happen in the gold market. As usual the hype, while amusing to read, was not based on anything remotely resembling reality. Guess what - April gold was entering its delivery period and many traders who were SPREAD using that month lifted their spreads.

The total number of spreads lifted was - are you ready for this? - 51,299 contracts ( futures and options combined). As you can see, that outnumbers the amount of actual buying and selling of outright positions by more than 3:1.

Remember this the next time some breathless article is written about some big open interest drop, especially if the market is entering a delivery period.

Where do things stand now ( as of this Friday)? As stated in a previous post, gold has had a nice bounce off an important chart support near the $1,280 level. I strongly suspect that the big rally off of $1280 has had more to do with short covering on the part of the hedge funds which stuck on some of those fresh shorts noted above. Without having the actual data in front of me ( we will need to wait until next Friday ( April 11), I would hesitate to be too dogmatic about this, but I would not look for the move over the last three days of this week to be characterized by a wave of brand new, aggressive long positioning.

Gold held where it needed to hold on the charts to prevent another leg lower and that ability to stay firm near $1280 has sparked another round of short covering. Now we need to see where the bulls can take this thing as the new week begins. There should be some overhead resistance centered near the $1320 level and again near $1340. If they can take it through both levels, I think we will see more aggressive short covering again and some new longs coming back in.

The key will be the Dollar and the US interest rate markets. There could also be some safe haven buying of gold if the US equity markets start looking shaky. We did get some of that in the recent past so it would not be unexpected to see it again if the selloff in the equity markets worsens.

Another way of saying this is that the bulls have regained some short term momentum. Whether or not they can capitalize on it is unclear. The charts will make it clear in their own time. In the meantime, stay flexible. Each new piece of economic data, whether from the US or from the Euro Zone or from China, is going to swing prices accordingly. I would suggest no one who is trading take too large of a position because it can reverse on you faster than you can blink. The name of the game right now is to survive. Let the computers chop up someone else besides you! Don't be the one providing them the funds for their extravagant lifestyles. Let them suck it out of someone else - blasted infernal leeches that they are.

As the reader can probably tell - I loathe what these computers have done to my profession. Mindless, unthinking machines ( in contrast to we carbon-based life forms known as discriminating human beings ) shoving markets all over the place, oftentimes without rhyme or reason, is in many quarters hailed as more efficient markets. I don't know whether to laugh in contempt or to weep with sadness over how shortsightedly blind our nation has become.

I have seen enough of the carnage these computer generated price moves can inflict on legitimate hedgers looking to offset risk to have had my complete fill of them. Sadly, it is here to stay and we have to learn to adapt to them in order to survive and prosper.



77 comments:

  1. Damn right, Dan; lucid thinking as usual and have a good wknd also, sparks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Dan. You speak the truth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Concord, I was wondering about you lately, as well as Preditor1976; hope all is well; sparks

      Delete
  3. Thanks again Dan.
    The piling on of new short positions in those numbers by most of the participating banks in that April report is not a good sign for the metals and it looks like were headed towards another leg down in April/May again if recent history is any lesson.

    All the perma-bulls who have relentlessy pitched that metals are going higher no matter what because the shorts would capitulate and the longs would be victorious as price overwhelms them blah, blah etc. should reevaluate the strength of the Kool-Aid cursing through them and projected upon their audience.

    It strikes me as odd that almost all the perma-bull prognostications or excuses out there are usually framed in a battle-like comparison that frames it like a crusade of sorts is underway.
    People engaged in a continual imaginary or perceived skirmish that exists between them and the markets or entities they are feeling persecuted from need to cool it with the dramatics. But they won't or can't.

    Instead they'll continue on a blind path never to learn from hindsight even as the present is smoldering all around them. All the predictions and self-righteous shrill accusations of truth are what unbalanced outlooks are made of.
    And in case no one has heard...the end is near, collapse is imminent and everything is a manipulated lie within a battlefield against some powerful evil entities who are in charge of almost everything designed to promote misery on the serfs or their investments.

    It must be emotionally or physically exhausting to live in such a dark and hostile mindset all the time. One can only hope these same dark outlooks aren't being layered upon their children and smothering and shaping their world view at too young of an age thus making their children, friends or family a casualty of the war they believe they're engaged in.

    The longer you observe it online you come to realize that the extreme, shrill viewpoints are just that and nothing more then some projected anxieties being displayed in public that basically ask you to confirm and subscribe to their belief system.
    That's what I'm seeing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After some many years listening to the gold bugs and unfortunately investing some on their recommendation if have a bit to add.
      The "gold bug" is a religious evangulist. It is a very emotional thing for them possibly due to insecurity and fear of being wrong. This is probably why some of their attacks are so nasty.
      Yes they do thrust their world view on family friends and children. In that sense you can reguard them as carriers and best to stay away or take post exposure doses of Trader Dan.

      Delete
    2. Mike, I agree with you. It's amazing how guys like Peter Schiff are still reading from the exact same talking points they were using in 2005 and nothing ever changes in their mind EVER. I had an account with him years ago and he's a great guy. His problem is always wanting to be right even if it costs his customers money. You can add tons more people to this list too.

      Delete
  4. It seems the commercials are almost always buyers when the price drops. Ted Butler points this out and believes that the commercials cause the the market to start to sell off by hft, spoofing, knowing the stops etc, whatever inside info they have and once the ball gets rolling the algos take over then they scoop up the gold on the dip. What do you think about Ted's analysis/opinion?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Gilliom;

      You don't want to know what I think about Butler's "opinions"....

      It would make my blog X-rated

      Delete
    2. Drop Ted Butler faster than a bad habit. When I was a Gold cultist I used to subscribe to his newsletter and never made a dime from his "forward" knowledge. I second Dan on his attitude towards newsletter writers. 100% of them are worthless. If I had access to divine knowledge about markets I would not share it with anyone except maybe some close family members. If you know anything about human nature you know that I am right. Be an independent thinker and learn through personal experience. That is the best free advice you will get today.

      Delete
    3. That's the problem in the online investment community though - there are not enough balanced and objective voices that can provide alternative ways of looking at markets, whether its in gold, stocks, etc. The value I get from Dan's blog as a long time reader is that he points to the charts, presents the technical picture as it stands for both the bulls and the bears, and leaves it at that for the reader to come to an independent conclusion. No one has to accept Dan's perspective, and he's not forcing it down anyone's throats, but the reality is that the price action is something that all traders have to accept - if we deny the price action of any underlying, we simply won't last long in the markets.

      Unfortunately, as you've alluded to Bob, there are not enough writers like Dan with the trading knowledge and background to provide sound education to those new to the markets or even to traders that are well acquainted with buying and selling day in and day out. That is what we need more of in the online "social trading" world as it continues to develop and grow. Instead, as is evident in the commodities niche, we have plenty of "experts" that charge a premium to readers and all they keep repeating is the same old "gold will hit $5000 an ounce", "the USD will collapse any day now," etc. None of these things are actionable for a trader. It upsets me to have read that there are newsletter writers that copy Dan's work and don't even credit the source. Its a shame really, and its why I would support Dan if he were to decide to create premium content for readers that truly value his research and work.

      Thanks for putting all the time that you do into your writing Dan - it is appreciated and there are many of us that support your efforts and understand that it takes a lot to build a community around a freely accessible blog.

      Delete
  5. the gilliom; turk, butler, von greyerz, willie, and I could go on and on and on, are just a bunch of clowns, or shills, or charlatans; pick your poison; sparks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Steve, whats with the sparks? Jw what it means...

      Delete
    2. Alex,

      Sparks = a city in Washoe County Nevada. Presumably where Steve Brassey is located.

      Delete
  6. A good book to read on this issue of HFT is Flash Boys, Cracking the Money Code by Michael Lewis.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. David, I answered your reply from Dan's thread yesterday.

      Delete
  7. Dan,

    You have been crusading against HFT for a long time now, probably since Reg NMS created the opportunities they exploit. You must be heartened that the SEC, the FBI and now the DoJ have announced, or confirmed long-running, investigations! ;-)

    Great response on Butler. His "research" is responsible for some of the dumbest nonsense ever written on the intertubes...yet, it lives on.

    All the best,

    ReplyDelete
  8. when the HFT controllers start 'offing themselves' as likin' to the bankers and CIA types...if you believe that is what is happening...then maybe we can see an end to this type of 'criminal activity'......maybe the uptick rule would be a start point for a truthful market again....imho

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All the regulators do is talk. They end up doing absolutely nothing. Hillary Clinton was given a clean bill for "her" cattle trades. The swiss bankers wife who just happened to sell the swiss franc at the high on a "hunch", just minutes before her husband said the swiss would be pegged to the euro. Consequence: none. There are thousands of examples. They have been looking into the uptick rule for years. Result: nothing. And what will become of the HFT's? Nothing.

      Delete
  9. What about this quote.. 2000+ Gold in 2014 " I do not care what the price is now, it must go there." -Bo Polny

    I was called dogmatic for saying the Euro would break lower this year.

    LOL

    .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I notice JS hasen't been posting that since gold is declined $100 from it's peak on this run.

      So much credibility lost on these two, if gold touches to 1180 again, or breaks through that might be the final dagger in the heart of Bo po.

      Delete
    2. I noticed a couple years ago js is posting things which i believe he doesnt really believe. I akso noticed jim stopped unloading his positions in trx pretty much at the top in 2011. Its my impression jim knows the truth but refuses to tell it. When he started posting pictures if sheered sheep at the june 2013 low with commens how deeply the sheep enjoy their haircuts it became clear hes the last person i can trust. I hope the money is worth ut for jim.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  10. Gold looked capped at 1298 a couple weeks ago, and Friday popped up from 1298 to 1306. The miners started selling off into the close and barely finished in the green considering gold was up $15+ on the day.

    Wondering if the pop was a head fake sucking people in as the smart money started selling the miners. We'll see Monday I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Well looks like an "Epic Rally" is about to occur any day now, since King World News has now upped the ante with the most outrageous forecasts ever:

    "TERRIFYING GLOBAL MELTDOWN TO DEVASTATE THE ENTIRE GLOBE"

    "MEGA-CHAOS TO DWARF THE TERROR OF 2008 COLLAPSE"

    "$12,000 GOLD AND $50,000 GOLD THE TRADE OF THE DECADE"

    Wow for a minute now I thought I was reading Rense.com!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. "We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter."

    We'll see if Marty is right on this one.

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/04/01/gold-turning-down/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like Armstrong's thought process and willingness to think deeper and outside of the box.
      I'd like to comment over there occassionally but for some reason the reply or comment link never opens up for me and displays an area to do so. :-p

      Delete
  13. Thanks John I have just replied on the other thread. I am on UK time hence the delay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. David, glad we can have discussions on this blog without argument and mud slinging. Thanks for replying.

      Delete
    2. Agreed John. Respecting other peoples opinions does not cost anything. It is going to be an interesting week ahead! I thought we were in for a major correction in October, but it did not happen. I have often been 6 months early with such thoughts, (I started to move into cash and gold in early 2008) so we are now moving into a very fraught period in the markets. Just my opinion of course and it may not happen until the autumn, but I think there will be a correction in the not too distant future.

      Delete
  14. bear fest this site has become ….

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anon, if you need bullish views to support your own I think Brotherjohnf has a blog on his website. "Silver for the people" - "Physical silver is the bullet that slays the Wall Street werewolves."

      LOL

      Delete
  15. … but remember the punch that puts you down is the one you don't see coming … i say this because many readers here have all figured out ..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty tepid rebuke.
      Don't mistake realistic objective current sentiment as a gold hating perma-bearishness by anyone.
      News alert anon....it's ok to have a multi-faceted view that allows one to play the markets in either direction....not just up, up, up.
      Step away from the punchbowl...put the Kool-Aid for a moment. I have wayyy too much metal to be considered a bear. I'm long phyz metals for a reason.
      The folks with the perms-bull outlook who always have the pedal to the metal need to realize it's ok to tap the brakes when the PM markets were de-accelerating the last two years.

      Full speed ahead all the time is a blind squirrel/cheerleader approach .

      Delete
    2. "...put the Kool-Aid DOWN for a moment."

      That's how that should've read.

      Delete
  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks for the analysis Dan.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Reposted under the relevant article (above):

    Sunday

    Buongiorno Dan:

    I feel I am a fairly smart guy but quite a dummy when it comes to the futures market. Can you explain the following excerpt, for DUMMIES ( since I feel it is important to my understanding of the sequence and what I thonk is a KEY point you are trying to make) :
    "
    Guess what - April gold was entering its delivery period and many traders who were SPREAD using that month lifted their spreads.

    The total number of spreads lifted was - are you ready for this? - 51,299 contracts ( futures and options combined). As you can see, that outnumbers the amount of actual buying and selling of outright positions by more than 3:1.

    "

    What does " lifting spreads " mean ?

    Wolf, seeking to become Wiser

    ReplyDelete
  19. Prices met resistance first at the daily ema15, under 1310...I'm unsure they can even get through that level (and the 23% fibo retracement of last move down i.e 1390 - 1280)...
    Damn, I don't know if I should sell 1/3 as soon as 1306 (bought at 1280) or wait and hope for 1320ish...and the ma20 daily.

    In any case, my stop loss is back at 1280 and that's all, won't let those algos bite my capital :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert, if you keep this up, with your gold and silver trades, we will all expect your bid on the Eiffel Tower any time soon.

      Delete
    2. Donesk....war is in the air.

      Delete
  20. Well I'm going to open a short on Wednesday if it continues up as per Armstrong. After all he's been more correct than any others out there at calling the market before hand (no offence Dan).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gary, why doesn't Armstrong utilize a proofreader or spellcheck? Seems like he knows everything about everything, but zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz ; sparks

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. "why doesn't Armstrong utilize a proofreader or spellcheck? "

      Is this really the best you have to try and discredit Marty? I'm not trying to start anything with you but that is just sad. I guess you think you are some sort of Polymath eh?

      Delete
    4. well, what is your answer? sparks

      Delete
    5. Funny how the guys that write armstrong expressing their admiration use the same syntax and spelling errors. I suppose their is no more gullible crowd then the gold bug crowd. Nothing but scams and confidemce men.

      Delete
    6. Maybe Armstrong knows something about the Swiss getting ready to dump several hundred tons gold on the market?

      http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/03/08/swiss-lose-17-billion-on-gold/

      He does have connections and the inside scoop there.

      Delete
  21. brassey,

    Yes, hilarious how so many of these soothsayers attain rock star status, even this guy who is an ex-con and can't even spell yet Wall St. hangs on to his every word as if its been uttered by Alan Greenspan or somebody.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Since KWN keeps bringing out the same guys who do nothing but talk around in circles to each other saying the same thing over and over....

    Eric found some new anonymous dude called "David P" or something who is now the so called "eggspurt" and is predicting gold to $3,500 very soon....

    Pretty soon those guys will be introducing their dogs as experts. Bark once, gold goes down, bark twice, gold is going to the moon, lol...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  23. mark, I was just now reading about this donkey and thinking how much you would be laughing; but you know, he might be a janitor, front desk clerk, short order cook, or bell hop, so maybe he is right, no? hahahaha; sparks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. or whistleblower - until his ex wife rats him out

      Delete
    2. Hi Steve,
      Still read your succinct comments which are almost always right. I wonder if Mark can explain what has happened in the momo stocks. They look as bad as gold did last April. Be well.

      Delete
  24. Hiya Steve. All I was commenting on was, after reading a lot of his articles for many years now, it's quite amazing how things go in cycles. By all means take the piss out of the punctuation and grammatical errors but look deeper and everything is cyclical. I remember him writing about civil unrest in 2007 when everything was great and booming, seemed ludicrous. Not so now, it's everywhere and gaining traction. Another example; gold as a hedge against inflation...Dow versus Gold over last 20-25yrs, take a look. Only ever been a hedge against government (confidence).
    Not looking for an argument but you can't overlook these things no matter what side of the fence you reside golgbug or goldbear.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gary, the spellcheck guy has opinions on everything politically, historically, and for the mkts. How can one take someone seriously who pontificates on just about everything and who claims he has the greatest computer that ever was invented? The guy is a letter writer, plain and simple, nothing more, nothing less. Interesting guy, but I would think hazardous to your financial health. Afterall, who makes plays based on 5-10-15 year projections and so forth? Take care and good luck in these broken mkts; sparks

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  25. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/prorussians-rise-up-in-donetsk-in-ukraines-east/story-e6frg6so-1226876367005
    Apparitions? Donesk.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Odessa next? Then Kiev?
      Kiev would be bold indeed.

      Delete
    2. Neither Odessa nor Kiev.
      The next domino regarding Ukraine is imho eastern Ukraine.
      Because that's where most pro-russians are.
      Also Russia wouldn't mind having a terrestrial access to Crimea, which is now quite isolated from Russia (sea, air only).
      Kiev is not concerned yet (but Christine may change that fast lol), as Maidan and the revolution took place there.
      It is easy for any small group in eastern Ukraine to start chaos by fighting with the russian populations. It can degenerate in many ways.
      Maybe Putin will :
      1) hope for a natural riot from the population itself, with a huge support for referendum / joining Russia i.e exactly what happened in Crimea.
      2) warn Kiev government that use of force / tanks / snipers against easter ukrainian population is unacceptable. Let the population take power by itself and declare independance / secede from western Ukraine without engaging militarily. Warn Ukrainian goverment that sending their army against the people and their right for self determination would automatically start a war with Russia.

      Whatever happens, Ukrainian events started a logic of direct confrontation between 2 blocks (USA/EU/Japan vs Russia/China/Iran) and I don't like the way it looks.

      Delete
    3. Nicely laid out HDH, appreciate your contributions here.
      Eastern Ukraine is a given and I'm thinking past that.
      As you can see, Kiev is in question and it'll be the military/political benchmark that NATO will use to bolster Poland.
      Odessa is important so that Russia has access to Moldovia and the fact it'll also landlock the Ukraine.

      Before you know it, the US/West wil be back in Syria. Classic tit for tat situation taking shape.

      And then China/Japan glares up. WW3 is NOT imminent by any stretch. Regional wars....that's another matter.

      Delete
  26. Yes the mo-mo stocks have pulled back dramatically but they are still up HUGE the last 2 years.

    In stark contrast to the gold mining stocks, offshore driller stocks, coal stocks, etc. favored by the "hard money" crowd.

    Those equities have experienced "Shocking Moves" to the downside, suffering from "Terrifying Meltdown", which has sent the entire industry into "Mega-Chaos" resulting in "Outright Devastation".

    But of course you will never hear that description on any of the gold bug blogs.

    LOL....

    ReplyDelete
  27. David P. Out of Europe ladies and gentleman,...has "fascinating charts"...you know where to look ;-p

    ReplyDelete
  28. David P = http://dave1bs.wordpress.com

    ReplyDelete
  29. Mark, maybe I am wrong because it is early in the day, week, and month, BUT I think the fat lady started singing 3/24 @ $802.45 on your June Palladium; I take my porterhouse medium rare; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  30. Like I was saying earlier and now according to fresh news reports....Moldova and Odessa are a given and only a matter of time.

    I don't have a map in front of me but it seems possible Russia stops short of Kiev (stays on the eastern side of that major river that runs past Kiev (Volga?)but not by much, if at all. They might end right up at the Polish border.
    Anything seems possible and in play.

    Including (in the future) a renewed Steel Curtain type scenario where no tangible brick wall is erected but instead a wall of ideaologies where NATO is nose to nose with Russia geographically speaking.

    Whether that occurs in Kiev or on the Polish border depends where NATO has drawn the imaginary line in their war planning in the event Russia creeps back into former Warsaw Pact territory. Ukraine will no longer be that wide buffer zone between Europe and Russia.
    NATO and Russia nose to nose is an eventuality.

    When Turkey gets involved (either in Syria directly or by blocking off access to the Russian Black Sea) we'll know it's getting real serious.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Meanwhile in Syria :
      http://www.debka.com/article/23827/US-arms-Syrian-rebels-with-first-heavy-weapons-anti-tank-BGM-71-TOW-missiles---raising-war-stakes
      (link found on jsmineset)

      And the Czech president who declared on sunday that if Russia set a foot in eastern Ukraine, NATO should immediately intervene with troops. Cool.
      The river is the Dniepr, and at least it would form a small natural curtain between troops.
      I still have hopes that Russia realizes that following US in this escalation game may lead to the worst, i.e they will NOT turn / destabilize more parts of Ukraine as long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO.
      It is the world's interest that Ukraine remains independant and neutral imho...but the main French TV channel depicted again on sunday the Crimea as a "Russian invasion of half Ukraine territory".
      So, it doesn't smell good (if you are in the side of peace and love, you know, those strange folks who don't believe in realpolitiks and Zbigniev B. (can't even spell his name right :)) theories.

      Meanwhile, I have a sell order short of 1320 on gold for 1/3 of my long position (1280).


      Delete
  31. inverted head and shoulders taking shape nicely … we shall see , only time will tell

    ReplyDelete
  32. Wikipedia and Webster Definitions of liar= James Turk and his backwardation; what a charlatan with no conscience; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  33. Do not forget the rule of 2 boys; whether it is days, weeks, or months, you have to fade the counter trend moves like now in the Yen; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  34. nice low volume algo pop in the Yen; let me give you some more at 98, ladies; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  35. I got money that says mark spends all his time on Fox's or Krauthammer's site pounding away at them in semi-religious fervor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice to see you boatman.
      Mark is kind of funny and I look forward to his quips. He's like a mini-KWN equities hyperbole machine. ;-)

      It always struck me as funny that the bulls and bears in any market refer to each other in semi-adversarial terms.
      It's ok to be a little of both in the short or longer term if sentiment and volume dictate one direction or another.

      Nothing is forever, including sentiments.

      Delete
  36. OK...
    I've just sold 1/3 of my long (1280) position at 1312.
    I didnt wait for 1320 and ma20 because :

    - the market is hesitating now at 1312 short term.
    - 1312 = ma50 daily
    - 1312 = 38% fibonacci retracement of 1181-1393
    - ma20 is heading down everyday and only a few dollars above this level.
    - I prefer to secure this trade by making it a fully safe trade now : risk initially taken = 8 dollars per contract = 48 dollars (6 contracts taken). Now out 2 contracts = profit of 2*32 = 64 dollars, but with the commissions 60, so it's near the risk taken initially on the whole position. Good time to sell 1/3 imho and keep stop loss above the initial entry point, near 1280. Then I keep the remaining long position and I already don't give a damn what algos will do with gold's prices. Next target around 1360 for another 1/3 to sell.

    I give the detail of this trade realtime to show that most important for me is not really to know where gold's price will go, where it will be in a few days. But much more where to find a reliable entry level because it is an expected support area (1280) for a reversal with a decent stop loss nearbu (1276) so that my risk reward ratio becomes quite interesting when I reach my first close target for a 1/3 drop (1312).
    Most important for me is to find opportunities where I can lose little, then quickly lose zero and keep some potential for winning big sometimes with the remaining position.
    Let's see how this trade goes from now, but already, I've secured a small profit with this 1/3 sale, and no loss possible on the remaining 2/3 by putting my stop loss above 1280.

    ReplyDelete

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