“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


To continue following Trader Dan, please sign up for Trader Dan's World at the link on the sidebar to receive a 1 month, no obligation, trial membership



Friday, March 7, 2014

The Friday Job's Curse

Yes, the dreaded curse has struck the yellow metal once again on a payrolls Friday. These volatile numbers are big market movers and today they did so again as the number came in better than expected. Keep in mind that gold has drawn strong buying support from the PREVIOUS TWO reports which their much worse than expected job hirings. Those reports gave rise to the thinking that the Fed, which by its own admission is going to be heavily relying on economic data to determine its approach to the tapering plans, was going to either slow the rate of tapering or cut it altogether.

I mentioned at that time that the weather was having a big impact on the data. The cold was a RECORD and that cannot be ignored as it makes sense that it was going to have at least some impact on those affected by it. Thus, there was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding these numbers. To draw too dogmatic of a conclusion from them was therefore unwise and premature. Even after today's numbers, I still want to see the next month's numbers to see if we are going to get a trend or these reports are just anomalies.

But for RIGHT NOW, those who were leaning heavily on the idea that the payrolls situation was quickly deteriorating and that the Fed was on hold were caught leaning way too hard to one side and got blindsided. The result - a plethora of sell orders from panicked longs.

This is what I meant when I said to be extremely careful if you cannot stop yourself from trading the metal on the Comex right now. It is just so volatile because no one knows for sure exactly what the Fed may or may not do. Everyone is guessing based on their take on the various economic reports. If they get it right - they are heroes; if they get it wrong - they are zeroes.

The mechanics of this are really quite simple - interest rates went back on the Ten Year - that brought some support ( buying support which has been missing of late) into the US Dollar and this derailed the metals.

I am also noting that once again Dr. Copper is getting hammered lower due to credit-related fears out of China. I have been beating that dead horse for some time now but copper has not been confirming the move higher across a large segment of the commodity markets. It is down nearly 4% today alone crashing through chart support in the process. Unless is can stage a quick recovery prior to the close of trading today, it is on course to put in the lowest weekly close since July of last year...

Keep this in mind particularly when you read the silver perma bulls talking about price manipulation. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial metal and I have rarely seen it moving higher when copper is sinking lower.



More later

57 comments:

  1. Acclaimed expert reputations at all the doom and gloom sites pretty much ruined now. The laughing stock on Wall Street! Stay in the system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most of the talking heads at those sites are never wrong just like Fonzi couldn't bring himself to say or acknowledge being "w...wr...wrong!"

      In the end, no matter how the markets play out or the reasons they do so, those talking heads will claim they were right and blow their own horns basking in their doomer glow as most of them like to have it both ways in their explanations and suppositions.

      Some people ignore that part of it. Having it both ways while telling people they aren't when they clearly are or when that tactic doesn't work they'll blame manipulation or evil intents etc. as the reason their predictions derailed.

      Delete
  2. I still want to see the debt which is now $17.4 Trillion, with an annual deficit of $6.2 Trillion (considering the Off Balance Sheet) payments to SS, Medicaid, Medicare. Seems that the debt will at some point destroy the country. They get their little victories with msm pumping some mythical recovery. It does appear job openings may be increasing, but the march to bankruptcy continues. No issues, will wait a bit longer but sure not hearing the deficit numbers, the on going pump of liquidity. Staying light but staying in the Gold market. At some point will short the SPX, and the anti metal bear ETN's. Staying in the Gold market.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Losses on PM investments today can be described as non other than "staggering". For example, Vista Gold still trading at a paltry 60 cents.

    And Chipotle finally cleared $600 today.

    Should have gone all in on burrito restaurants back in 2009, when CMG was trading at $39, and forgotten about speculating in gold.

    We would all be done, finished, retired by now. LOL....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Am actually starting to wonder if there are some long term negative implications in the gold market because of its inability to rise with a falling dollar and higher commodity prices?

      Delete
    2. inability to rise ? you must be looking at copper … one is orange , the other yellow … you know … mellow yellow ? hehe

      Delete
    3. When will the debt ridden consumer zombies quit eating burritos and start buying office supplies!?

      Delete
    4. Gene

      You need an actual economic recovery for demand in office supplies.
      All this consumer crap is exactly that...crap!

      Delete
    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    6. BillMarch 7, 2014 at 1:59 PM
      Mark $10 bucks is a staggering loss ? I guess no one was watching the HUI. In days past the HUI was the first to go that did not happen today the HUI held up and even climbed the close

      . Miners are still leading the way . That being said the " sky " is falling screams from the sector haters is really getting a little boring, every time gold moves $20 or $30 bucks they come out screaming " see I told you so " I mean come on people.

      And a quick question if i may where are all the bubble callers for the Equity markets ? Or is it only a bubble when metals advances. The hypocrisy is getting old. And note I am no gold bug, but I am a trader.

      Delete
  4. If we are experiencing the Bernanke economic miracle….why not go all in now?

    ReplyDelete
  5. i bet comex gold closes in the green today

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A higher close today earns you a fabulous steak dinner of your choice.

      Delete
    2. Anon, u r smoking too many fatties this morning; now way does the yellow metal close +++ today; sparks

      Delete
    3. Anon - I would make that a small bet if I were you...

      As long as Treasuries are in the red, and longer term rates are rising, it will put pressure on gold. Gold is being supported by buying due to geopolitical events in Ukraine but when the Dollar strengthens, Western based investors lose interest. Also, the physical markets in Asia are currently undergoing sticker shock.

      Delete
    4. Dan ,
      I would have thought the when you have geopolitical events such as this that the USD would strengthen , but is not . Why ? . Also , you say that gold is held at these levels due to these geopolitical events … In my humble opinion , gold got here first , and is not really reacting to these geopolitical events , because , there is a massive wall of shorts between 1350 and 1400 , who are not going to capitulate because of just another false flag such as the one in Syria . In my opinion the gold shorts are not really taking into account a serious escalation of events in the Ukraine .

      Delete
  6. Any reason, for your optimism, Anon, or is it just the feeling?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. is not only a gut feeling … I think gold is reacting different than it did during the conflict in Syria . , we got up here before the Ukraine problem started … gold has had an incredible run so far this year , and for good reason , at some point this liquidity driven rally in the stock market had to spill over into gold … The Ukraine issue is providing a bid for the yellow metal , to go short gold over the week end with all that is going on right now doesnt make any sense … so we got a good NFP number … how many bad numbers have we had the last 3 months … 1350 to 1400 was never going to be easy … gold is gaining momentum here

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. Anon the market is sensitive and picked up on the Ukraine problem long before me, you or any other retailer would even get a whiff of it. When those in the know know how the tension resolves they'll be selling to those who came late to the party - isn't it always that way?

      Same scenario as when gold ran from 1530 to 1792 in 2012 on "no news", then the Fed comes out with doubling QE, and what happen to gold, all those who were buying the money printing/hyperinflation theory started to buy assuming gold is going to 2500 were in for a rude awaking hanging on all the way down to 1180 from reading doomer sites.
      JMHO

      Delete
  7. I would even dare to say that in a way the sell off is bullish since it closed up the gap from monday at 1326 and now its free to have another go at the 1350 level

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I agree it does look different this time. It almost feels odd.

      Delete
  8. Dan, could you please comment on why commercials are long copper futures while short most everything else in the commodity complex. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Marks;

      It is all hedging. I will try to get something up later after today's COT reports come out.

      Delete
  9. Platinum and palladium look much stronger, they appear to want to break out of huge 2-year consolidations, as the economy is really starting to accelerate.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Go to Kitco and pull up 5 year chart of Palladium and check out the huge triangle consolidation that has been going on for months now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 14 yrs ago Mark, palladium ran up to $1100; very thin mkt; sparks

      Delete
  11. If trade sanctions between the US, Russia and the EU become strained to the point that IMF SDR needs to become an important "temporary" method of trade settlement between these countries that maneuver (sdr) in of itself would negate a significant amount of the USD's relevance fairly abruptly.
    Granted, that's a very big "if".

    But it seems to me that the SDR's involvement could possibly usher in the need for countries to pony up or pledge some gold to the IMF in order to gain access to a suitable amount of SDR's to facilitate trade if the sanctions start disrupting normal fx markets (or even bonds).
    If that becomes the case then gold will need to be repriced at some point to a much higher price in order for the IMF to issue existing or new SDR's in an increasing manner.
    What better (or worse?) scenario could there be then war drums or what better entity then the IMF to jack the price of gold up internationally because it will likely recommend the need for it to happen in order to facilitate an increasing amount of SDR distribution.

    The coincidence of a gold sdr and the fund known as spdr gld being somewhat similar looking is kind of ironic because if the IMF eventually requires gold pledges from other countries the issuance of SDR's will become highly leveraged (1,000 to 1) just like spdr gld is alleged to operate under.
    It's quite possible that the template or M.O. that GLD operated under successfully will essentially become the IMF's gold SDR method of valuation.

    No one at the international or CB level will question it if the SDR needs to come into play. WWII totally disrupted the fx market and I think the exchange rates were frozen or set at some determined level. Not exactly sure about that.

    The IMF getting involved with SDR's as an intermediary method of trade settlement or monetary assistance to countries in need will usher in significant FX market changes in the not so distant future that likely will include gold as part of the equation or solution.

    Hopefully the need for any of that never becomes necessary. But it appears the ego's and mental states involved at this point are such that a clash of some sort looks inevitable even if it takes many months or even years to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  12. To add further....GLD is alleged to be an approx. 100/1 leveraged ratio, not 1,000/1 as it appears I implied above.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hey, for all you $ bashers, I would like to know if the Yuan or the Ruble is now being used in energy transactions. Or, Turkish Lira , SA Rand; who is smarter, the Russians or Chinese, the neophytes of the modern world of commerce? Pettis, Mish, and Chanos have it right---coming right around the corner, the Chinese implosion and all of you are all way BEHIND the curve; sparks, of course

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Assuming of course that the Chinese and Russians are stupid...dangerous assumption.

      Delete
    2. no assumption here; and I hope you are not assuming that they are bright; sparks

      Delete
    3. I don't know if the Yuan or Ruble are directly bidding for oil but if not it is only a matter of time. Are you suggesting that foreign dollar support is strong? This chart shows the increase in foreign holdings of US treasury securities for the last 5 years. This support funds gubmint deficit spending. QE is a response to the lack of foreign support for the USG's profligate spending.

      It doesn't take a genius to suggest that China's growth will slow but I think they will be an economic powerhouse for years to come.

      Delete
    4. Steve

      Putin is no ones fool and the Chinese are (from what I have read) are very sharp traders.
      The difference? none of the above have the reserve currency but you can bet the farm that someday one of them will.

      I never assume anything and I always sleep with one eye open! :)

      Delete
  14. Hey, Fitzpatrick predicted gold going up $570 (I'm surprised he didn't specify it to the fourth decimal point) and he's got some gay charts to prove it. All of his charts are at least partly accurate (the part that trends the past) and all of them end magically with a large green arrow pointing to the sky (and above) regardless of anything else. He's done this now for like 1 or 2 years and the fact that he was consistently wrong in the past, is by no means putting a dent in his confidence. That's it, I'm backing up the truck.
    [the term "gay" to describe his charts was to be understood as "happy" "jolly" or "perky" and not in that other, now commonly used, sense (not that there's anything wrong with that)]

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. brokerage house mouthpiece and nothing more; sparks

      Delete
    2. Steve, what gets me is this shameless display of an odd mixture of arrogance and ignorance. Who is seriously listening to these guys? Are people that desperate to have some (false) messiah to tell them where to land their money, that they are indiscriminately flocking to whichever self-serving boisterous clown happens to be there?

      Delete
    3. Abraxas, you have to remember that most speculator, investors, and gamblers deep down inside really want to LOSE, so if they can blame someone else, they are comfortable. Winning and being successful brings with it responsibility, which most people want no part of; sparks

      Delete
  15. I bought some limited silver numismatic items this morning on the weakness. I've done very well on many issues over the years. you have to know that market but it pays if you do. not the right time for basic .999 bullion just yet. like Dan says you need to look at what copper is doing. gold may hang in better due to geopolitical events but silver needs industrial help on top of investor demand. better grades of old silver dollars are up over the last several months even as bullion is flat.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thank you Dan for your trading insights. Saved me a lot of money which was going down the drain following the turds of this world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Raul, did you mean the Turds of this world?

      Delete
  17. We get it Dan...

    there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation... there is no manipulation...

    Silver dropped 3.5% in the first 5 mins of trading after the the jobs numbers... that were at best lukewarm.

    What else is JPM stopping hand over fist at the Crimex?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here we go again. This is like Merry-go-around. You have an illusion like you are going somewhere, but when you start paying attention; you realize you've been just going in circles.

      Delete
    2. if you go into these reports with a position and the numbers do not favor you, take your medicine like a man; sparks

      Delete
    3. SRV ES339;

      You would do well to enlarge your horizons and start watching other commodities trade besides the precious metals. You would find the same, IF NOT WORSE, wild price swings occur all the time. It has nothing to do with manipulation and everything to do with the nature of today's idiotic computerized trading. There is no finesse, no skill, no nothing - it is all in or all out instantaneously. Start trading soybeans for a living or cattle or hogs and then come back here with some actual experience under your belt. I promise you, if you are open-minded, your tune will change.

      Silver and gold are TAME compared to what I deal with regularly in some of these other markets.

      Delete
    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    5. All totally good points. As I trade all that stuff also. Pretty crazy at times. But a $4000 move in silver, from 21.60 to 20.80 in seconds is on the extreme side. Thats an 80cent move in soybeans which is actually more then a limit move. Recently coffee has had moves in excess of 4000 in a day. Silver is silver. Any market that could be $8 or $50 is in that extreme category. But even that said, 4000 move in seconds has to have a person wondering what the heck is going on.

      Delete
    6. Dan,

      You're right in general, but you did not give an example of another investment that is driven down repeatedly in minutes with little or no market driven news.

      Steve,

      I have big positions in PMs... I gave up trading this criminal market (I truly feel for guys like Dan trying to navigate the crime) long ago... just "watchin' the wheels go round" from the sidelines 'til it all blows up these days.

      Best,
      SRV

      Delete
  18. Gave up trying to short term trade. No way with the algorithm orgies!!!! Combined with meaningless reports and mysterious adjustments. Just take a small position and watch, wait, the circus in DC and Wall Street are sure to start some very good comedies...Cummings-Issa, Obama - Putin. Actually they are depressive dramas which will all end badly.

    ReplyDelete
  19. No matter how hard the chart keeps getting pummeled, it seems now, it is like the Terminator, just keeps ticking higher..slow ..tick.tick..tick..doing well with small position.. when this administration loses $ it loans thru the IMF. WHAT NEXT? Tell Putin ..bummer will hold his breath till the Russians go home? Or..draw another red line? We don't have any cash flow, let alone money.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi all,
    Update of my positions on gold and silver : no change.
    - out of silver, last 50% sold at 21.90 and waiting for a pullback towards the ex-resistance which became support in the area of 20.60 - 20-70 to make a call. Actually I had a call order at 20.66 on the CFD platform I'm using, but the lows were 20.74 while Comex indicated a lows on the futures at 20.67 lol, but futures and CFDs are not exactly the same when it's peak prices for a very short time, so, I missed the long entry for a few cents and am still out of silver for now.
    - 50% of my long position left on gold, last 25% out at 1337 and no reinforcement whatsoever since then. The resistance at 1360 seems important, so I'm not going long just under it unless I see something new on my radar.

    Regarding SP500, the market seems to head towards my price level of 1900 right on time, so I'm waiting there with a short order, so that Mark can watch if I can dodge this one and try to make a little profit shorting a bullish trend once again or laugh at me and my miserable attempt :)

    Have a pleasant weekend :)


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert, I am interested in your French, Belgian, or Dutch? opinions on Crimea. It seems to me that the average American donkey has no appreciation for how the borders have changed over the last 4=5 hundred years in Europe, and how suddenly the Russian Bear Boogeyman is to blame once again, as though the Ukrainian oligarchs are some kind of choir boys? In fact, does not the Crimea have a pretty long history with mother Russia, along with Kiev and so on? My last question is why does nobody question the French involvement in CAR? Never a peep from the Western 4th Estate; oh, I guess there are no natural resources involved, but is just a case of democracy, right? lmao; sparks, of course

      Delete
    2. Hi Steve,
      Sorry, what is CAR?
      CARla Bruni? :)
      I sincerely have no idea.
      About Ukraine, I don't have many bright things to say, I'm afraid.
      Armstrong says the people stand a chance to make a real change an bring a new paradygm instead of returning into the old system, because of their distrust of any politician...he says it's a grass root revolution. All of this remains to be seen. No offense meant, but one needs to have brains, and in like many other countries, the people there are not particularly bright. I don't think they have a clue about what's happening to them, and I don't think 0.01% of them is reading either Armstrong or Craig Roberts or whatever "philospoher".
      I can tell you that the MSM is working full speed, with yesterday Euronews showing every 20 minutes Mikhail Saakhasvilii (ex president of Georgia) comparing Putin to Hitler, saying Putin invaded south ossetia (one second : what the hell would Russia need to invade south ossetia for?? resources? gas? geostrategic interests?? Yes they went, but in order to protect the russian population there indeed, in the sense that they didn't start the war there. A crazy Saakhasvili with new troops newly trained by US and a country about to become a NATO member decided that it was time to wipe out some of the russian population on its ground. And that's the kind of asshole Euronews is inviting and interviewing, so...propaganda and disinformation is everywhere).
      For sure borders changed a lot, especially about Ukraine, and one can say that the country is mainly split in two, say grossly by the Dniepr river in its middle.
      It is clear that people living at Lvov (near polish border) have nothing to do with people living in Yalta.
      I wish them democracy and independance but they need a real government able to unite all the population sides to achieve that, and certainly not the current new Kiev government whose first measure was to FORBID russian as an official language??!!!
      What better declaration of war than this measure towards the russian community there.
      So, Ukraine is a mess.
      I just hope US government realize that Sebastopol and Crimea are to Russia what Cuba was to the US : a strategic threat that will probably be considered very seriously, and in which once again, Russia will not back down. Just like for Cuba reversed, if the US/EU play fire and try to integrate Ukraine into NATO or build missile bases there, I have no idea what the russian reaction could be.

      Delete
  21. Dan,

    What do you make of the COT reports for gold and silver? It seems that gold especially, is due for a breather. Silver's 'breakout' from the rectangle has been very weak and disappointing.

    The good news that seems to be holding up the metals is that the USD can't catch a bid whatsoever, while the Euro continues to go up no matter what.

    ReplyDelete
  22. It's all going to de-escalate.
    Meanwhile, what about a nice simulation to change your mind? :)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2R0CSWu2uUM

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hubert; Central African Republic; Yes, this Ukraine situation is quite the mess, and the info coming out is shaky to say the least. Well, it is like anything else in that the ultimate victors will write the history books. Classic example is how the American West was won; sparks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ah ok.
      No idea about CAR, unfortunately.

      But I have the irrefutable proof that war is coming...I mean at least I can open a doomsday newsletter and make money with it!!
      Look, how do you write world war 3 those days?
      WW III
      Ok, now, see it as a hollywood production, with the III coming superposed to the title World War...now we have :
      VIVIVIV
      right?
      Or if you prefer :
      VI VI VI V...
      Or...
      666 ...
      So I just deciphered what the number of the beast stood for :)
      I can bless you for a few grams of physical gold though.

      Delete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.