"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET



Friday, February 28, 2014

Short Covering continues to be the Feature in the Gold market

Gold seems to have run out of gas up near the $1340 level as it has been unable to extend its near month long gains here at the end of February. Upside momentum is waning and that requires close attention.

There are several things that I would like to bring up right now. The first is the nature of the buying that has been driving this market higher since the first of the year. Gold started 2014 near the $1,200 level and has since then put on $140, the largest portion of that this month when it moved $100 higher.

Based on the COT reports since the beginning of this new year, one can easily observe that the largest portion of the buying this year has come from whole scale short covering. Here are the numbers:

At the beginning of the year, the Hedge Fund OUTRIGHT short position consisted of 72,571 futures contracts and options. As of Tuesday this week, that position was 30,996. Doing the math, we can see a reduction of 41,575 short positions or short covering.

That same Hedge Fund category had a OUTRIGHT long position of 106,675 futures contracts and options. Tuesday this week shows a build in that same position to 144,907. The math - an increase of 38,232 positions on the long side.

In other words, short covering by the gigantic hedge fund community has outnumbered the amount of new buying by that same category in the amount of 3343 futures contracts and options since the start of 2014.

This is not a recipe for a sustainable bull market. One wants to see eager, strong, abundant fresh buying driving a market higher because it is a reflection of bullish sentiment, not a wave of aggressive short covering which once it fades, drops the upside momentum. Now, whether we can see something which will spur traders/investors to pile onto the long side with a greater fervor than the short which have been getting out remains to be seen, but until we do, caution is still warranted towards this market. The one thing about rallies led primarily by short covering is that they tend to fade quickly. We'll see what we get to begin the new month.

By the way, as a side note, for you folks over at a certain paid-subscription newsletter site that enjoy taking the articles posted here and republishing them nearly verbatim without giving credit to where you got them, I have not included a chart of the above so that you can at least add something of your own when you indulge your inclination to plagiarize.

Take a look at the chart below however and you can see the extent of the move this year but you can also see the obvious resistance zone that has formed up at $1,340.

The Directional Movement Indicator is showing the ADX line rounding over. It has stopped moving higher which in itself is a warning sign that there exists the potential for a halt in the uptrend. While bulls still remain in control of the market, upward progress is stalling indicated by the falling Positive Directional Movement indicator ( Blue Line ).


Dip buyers have thus far emerged in gold and kept it from breaking down sharply but if the physical market buyers begin to back away and wait for lower prices, I am skeptical that buying from Western-based investment sources will be sufficient take the price through this overhead resistance zone against which it is currently being held in check.

93 comments:

  1. Dan, the parasitic blood suckers copying your thoughts should be drawn and quartered; have a good weekend; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  2. I would like to know who the unethical ones are.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dan- sorry to hear about the copy cat problem. Its hard to believe someone would actually go to this extreme to get material for a paid subscription newsletter. I suppose it is a sign of the low quality of newsletter writers out there these days or the high quality of your blog posts. Appreciate your work and insights into these unpredictable markets. On another note, if you ever decide to start posting your trades on a subscription service, am pretty sure there would be some interest...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jeff777 - thanks - It is just another sign of the loss of virtue, honor, integrity and ethics in this nation. It reminds me of a quotation out of the prophet Jeremiah:

      "Were they ashamed because of these abominations? No, they do not even know how to blush".

      Pretty sad commentary on the state of moral affairs but very applicable to our declining nation.

      Delete
    2. You mean they just inserted it into their own article without any reference or even a LINK that shows where it came from?

      Sounds like a bunch of wannabe traders. There's plenty of them out there. I hope they are the dip buyers. :-) Either way they are probably the hedge fund fodder types.

      Delete
  4. Hi Dan,

    Big day down for the dollar, ex : eur/usd, yet gold didn't quite benefit from it.
    Some are pointing at the ESF.
    Would you be able to notice the footprints of such people if they were to exert soma manipulation on prices at key levels like nearing 79 on the USD index, or would it be virtually impossible?
    Have a nice weekend, and everyone better be praying for peace in Ukraine. The fools in Kiev are asking for US and UK military support.
    The world could easily be sucked into this madness.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This news if more up to date and could explain gold's weakness Friday:

      "Senior administration officials in Washington commented early Friday that Ukraine was the European Union’s problem and they could look after it.
      According to debkafile’s Washington and Moscow sources, the Obama and Putin administrations have each come to roughly the same conclusion: The Kiev administration is unsustainable in Ukraine’s bankrupt state. Before many days go by, it will be confronted with demands to supply wages, food and medicines to the public and the army. Loud complaints that the national coffers were robbed of tens of millions of dollars may be true, but will not restore the missing funds....."

      http://warsclerotic.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/off-topic-russian-marines-paratroops-seize-crimean-airports-moscows-creeping-invasion-continues/

      Delete
    2. Hubert,

      https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/historical/house/1934hr_goldresact.pdf

      These are the discussions about the ESF in its origin. It is funny reading this, as you can see VERY FEW senators understood fundamental economics. They still do not.

      Search the word SECRECY in the pdf and it will discuss the full intent of the ESF. With the technology nowadays, imagine the corruption they can wallow in??!!! They can use any medium they choose, so I would guess it is impossible to tell if it is hedge funds, or hedge funds using gov't funds. The options are endless as there is no overseer, nor can there be one. BTW, some of the options are totally justified and we should be glad they are there. But as administrations change, so do priorities...

      Delete
    3. Hubert;
      the same crowd blames the ESF for everything. FRiday was the end of a very weird month across the entirety of the commodity sector. I would not be so hasty as to blame this entity or that entity for anything.

      My concern is about the Dollar and its fall lower - I look at the current administrations bumbling ineptness in foreign affairs and wonder if the world has lost complete confidence in the management of the US as a result. It is like watching a buffoonish amateur trying to play chess against a grandmaster.

      Delete
    4. Warren Buffett announced a weakening U.S. Dollar on CNBC earlier today: http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/03/warren-buffett-announces-weakening-us.html

      Can you please tell me what ESF stands for?

      Delete
  5. Dan, you should name and shame that site.

    Thanks for your thoughts on the COT data, however the perma-bulls and tinfoil hat crew are surely going to howl and scream at your latest gold bashing post.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why shame? No need to become a basher yourself. We can be respectful of everyone, even in some disagreement. Especially in such a blurred game.

      Delete
    2. Hubert; The question never asked is "what happens when the Indians and Chinese slow their precious metals buying?" Such behavior could result from the impending Chinese credit bust, imho, and we all know that prices are set at the margin. Did someone say $1000 gold? Surely not at KWN; sparks

      Delete
    3. Steve,

      On the flip side, what happens when Indians can start buying again? From what I gather they have been "starved" of gold and there are elections on the 31st of this month. If the CAD police get voted out, AND/OR change their taxes on gold, you could see massive "gorging" from India. Nobody ever talks about the drop in gold being around the time that Indians were cut off from their gold. But again, I am not sure. Too many geopolitical issues going on to part with my holdings...

      http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/stemming-the-tide-of-imported-gold-in-india/

      http://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/RWGS02012013.pdf

      Delete
    4. Hubert - Jesse is talking about the site that plagiarized my writings from here and has the brazenness to not credit where they stole the commentary from. That plus the fact that they charge people money for doing so. If one is going to do so, they should at least have the common decency to come up with something original. It is called integrity, honor and ethics and virtue, traits which are dying in this nation of ours.

      Delete
    5. integrity, honor, ethics and virtue are inconvenient obstacles for the fringe subscription sites that exist out there.
      the fish rots from the head down and either the owner or moderators of the site don't care or the people plagarizing your charts are lazy rude types who lack basic principles.


      Delete
    6. ah, sorry, I was confusing websites then.
      Of course, I'm 100% with you about those gangsters, as they are making money using Your contents! I guess scan from their pages and yours, and you could ask for penalties without going to court with a lawyer...not to make money but at least to make them pay for their fraud and push them to stop it. Those gangsters won't understand any other language, I guess...it's only about money for them :(

      Delete
  6. Not sure how this gold forecaster can make such predictions based on the below article. 10 tons inflow is measly, and more importantly it says it BARRING the large outflow of close Friday ending Feb - but doesn't mention how large the outflow was, or the fact that gold looked to be turning down:


    "This is the beginning of a trend that will continue through the summer of 2014.

    World’s biggest gold ETF eyes 1st monthly inflow in over a year
    Thu Feb 27, 2014 8:00am EST
    By Jan Harvey

    LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) – The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Shares, is on track for its first monthly inflow of metal in more than a year after a run of weaker U.S. data boosted investment interest in gold.

    The SPDR fund, which issues securities backed by physical metal and attracted big inflows in the wake of the financial crisis, has added 10.5 tonnes to its reserves so far this month.

    That means that, barring a large outflow on Friday, February would be the first month to show an increase since December 2012.

    Last year holdings of gold-backed ETFs fell by 881 tonnes, according to data from the World Gold Council and Thomson Reuters GMFS, as gold prices tumbled 28 percent. The SPDR alone saw its holdings drop by more than 550 tonnes......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elijah;

      We started the year at GLD with 798 tons of gold reported in there. As of Friday, we have 803 reported. That is a gain of 5 tons for the last two months. That is not something that strikes me as particularly heavy based on what we were seeing back when gold was still in a bull market.

      The situation in Ukraine has been supporting gold thus far but my concern is that if stocks keep powering higher, gold is going to run out of friends once again. Geopolitical events tend to flash the price of gold higher but the rally then tends to fall apart.

      The situation will bear watching however because as long as it looks as if the possibility for escalation exists, some safe haven buying will take place..My own view on that is they should split the country in two parts and let those in the East, who want to remain allied with Russia, do so while those in the western part, who want to align themselves with Europe, do so.

      It would solve the unrest there. the big issue will be the nat gas supplies and perhaps the grain stocks as Ukraine was not once called the breadbasket of the former USSR for no reason.

      Delete
  7. thank you your rational and pleasant explanations.
    it's refreshing to read a mature unbiased viewpoint on here that doesn't allow angry doomers, racists or axe grinders to squat on your blog.

    it's a shame that some unstable ego's who run other blogs have polluted and distorted the PM blohosphere and helped give it a bad name or reputation.

    i guess some people will say anything or act in whatever manner it takes to make a buck or two off of others. shameless stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Looks like silver short ending Feb is larger than it was April 2013 before the large drop:

    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SI.png

    Wish I knew of these indicators before going into 2013
    Gold not as dramatic but could make it there March:

    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/GC.png

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yes, next week its going to be "Do or Die" for the gloom and doom crowd.

    We'll see if the markets continue to advance, allowing the Dow to follow QQQ and SPY to new world record highs.

    And see if gold starts breaking down again, as speculators dump more GLD positions in order to chase the Investors Business Daily Top 50 Mo-Mo plays.

    Funny how interest rates have actually declined lately, even though stocks are making record highs.

    Pretty much the best of all worlds, looks like Yellen is compounding the gains earned by Bernanke, who will go down as the Greatest Central Banker who ever lived.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As the dollar fades into the ashcan of history he will look more like a second rate Houdini then a great central banker.

      Delete
    2. "but if the physical market buyers begin to back away and wait for lower prices"...I'm confused Dan. Are you saying the paper price has something to do with physical buyers? Since there are 80 ounces traded for every real ounce of gold available I am of the opinion the 2 have nothing to do with each other in relation to price.

      Delete
    3. Got it Right - Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. physical market buying in Asian has always bottomed the paper market at the Comex during the last 13 years, back when gold first entered a bull market and during the bear market of the last two years.

      Yes, they are connected just like more bushels of beans or corn and wheat are traded than are grown.

      or three tiimes the number of hogs are traded on a single day than are slaughtered that day.

      The futures markets have always had much more volume done that the totality of the underlying commodity.

      Delete
    4. Mark

      I have come to the conclusion that you must be somehow related to Bernanke….brother in law, cousin, nephew ?? either that or you have reached the pinnacle of being Ben's only male groupie.
      You should start a fan club…good money in that kind of gig.

      Delete
    5. Dean; Mark is needling everyone. He knows Easy Al, Helicopter Ben and now Yellen are all monsters. He also knows, as do all of us that there is 0% correlation between the 5 yr stock bull market and the real economy, but true to form, his sarcastic bent gets the best of him on a regular basis. sparks, of course

      Delete
    6. Mark may be no different then thd gold pumpers pumping tops but at least he didnt raise the salaries by 200 to 500 percent after raising 30 million in 2011 based on " this is it" hyping and production any day now type of promises. Turns out santa clause does not exist.

      Delete
    7. great articles. Very timely and prescient. Huge jumps in short positioning by commercials. Interesting to see what JPM has done this month. We will know soon.

      Somebody large is keeping it from rising more than 1340 resistance. All this re-positioning by the hedges. If they run out of long ammo we could see a sharp drop in price. Shares not doing well here. There is a floor at 1320-1310 for now.

      I notice the New Unit is following Joel Skousen. I am glad that he is, and understands the globalist agenda. Keep your bullion out of the system.

      This monkey financial system can last a lot longer than people realize. if the average person is a clueless fool, then a degenerate financial system can flourish, because these fools participate in it.

      Delete
    8. I actually like to listen to Joel Skousen because he's not ashamed of my Lord Jesus Christ. That to me is very refreshing in the midst of sifting through all of these current events. Then I hear those calming words in my mind that say, "Fear not..."

      Delete
  10. As for me i stick with rogers opinion who predicted this short covering rally said he doesnt think much of it and sees a lower bottom later this year. Jim is much more wealthy then the other jim earned it in a decent way doesnt sheer sheep and has proven trustworthy.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I think we are living in the most extraordinary time in financial market history in real time:

    Despite the continued improvement in the economy and stock markets, millions upon millions are still being made the the "Gloom and Doom" crowd, selling fear to the hapless fools still stuck in their bunkers.

    Exhibit A is Zero Hedge, hands down the most successful blog ever, yet every day they scream about how the end is near.

    Exhibit B is the plethora of "experts" who claim over and over that the sky is falling and we must take cover. Take Paul Farrell at MarketWatch, that guy goes on and on warning about a major crash that never happens yet financial readers simply lap that stuff up.

    Exhibit C is the S & P 500 making the most extraordinary gains ever recorded, led by retail stocks, biotechs, etc. yet everyone is still afraid of investing in stocks.

    Exhibit D is the massive amount of borrowing capacity enjoyed by governments and corporations, whereby the more debt that is raised, interest rates fall even faster, thanks to the "Bernanke Miracle" aka "The Perpetual Motion Machine".

    And yet despite all this, many doomer bloggers are still followed by millions, and millions continue to lose money by investing in the wrong vehicles, while the select few who are optimists continue to reap huge profits by staying in the system.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. " NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett on Saturday signaled he plans to make more large acquisitions for Berkshire Hathaway Inc to expand his conglomerate, which posted a record profit in 2013 with the help of a recovering U.S. economy."America's best days lie ahead," Buffett, 83, said in his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders."Charlie and I have always considered a 'bet' on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing," he added, referring to his 90-year-old vice chairman Charlie Munger. "Though we invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America.""

      Should have listened when munger called the gold pimps jerks.

      Delete
    2. He isn't lying. Indeed, the best days for him are ahead. His railways will transport the refugees and cargo to the camps in a post economically collapsed environment. He will continue to subvert pipelines in favor of his railcar system. He will collaborate with ChiCom. He is a globalist and globalists prosper as the world get worse. His banks will always get bailed out, or people will mysteriously vanish. He will continue to malign gold whilst secretly accumulating it.

      He is such a good, folksy American

      Delete
    3. Today Buffett got on CNBC and said the U.S. Dollar will lose it's purchasing power. I wonder if he's quietly buying gold?
      http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/03/warren-buffett-announces-weakening-us.html

      I couldn't get the audio but as you can see in the picture CNBC highlighted his comment on the U.S. Dollar.

      These globalists control the stock market now very well with the HFT ALGORITHMS and large trading command centers running their covert operations centers.

      All we can do is place our bets and try to gain a trade. I'm 100% convinced there's really no investments for the small investor anymore. Just minnow traps.

      Delete
  12. on the Eur/Usd, we are attacking again the next Fibo retracement level at 1.3834
    It should be a strong resistance because of bollinger bands daily and weekly also at those levels, but if we break through, next resistance is 1.3970 as you can join few recent tops, then next fibo retracement above 1.42.
    As Euro is the main component of USDindex, and gold depends also on the dollar strength, I'm following closely those levels.

    I am not pessimistic about gold (as a bull) as long as 1307 holds, my indicators keep being rather well oriented, so we will see, but at the moment I'm not selling more and I hope that we'll soon break above 1337.

    Sorry, very little time, no time for chart, my family / work like is more complicated than the ukrainian one if I dare make a dubious comparison.
    Have a nice weekend,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hubert- Not technical, per se, but keep an eye on Royal Gold's (RGLD) chart. Friday's close was highest since Mar 28 '13. It hasn't broken down yet. To me its performance adds color to investor sentiment / As a royalty suffers from far fewer of the ills of an actual miner.

      Delete
    2. recap of my positions on silver :

      currently out, long taken 19.10, out 50% at 20.30 then 50% 21.90
      I'll watch closely 20.60 / 20.70 area for silver and may try to go long once more but only 50% of my standard position.

      Agree with Dan about Ukraine : try to force the hand of people who can't reconcile can lead to civil war, then global war. What do we choose? Tcheco / Slovakia or Yougoslavia?
      Especially with Putin staring at eastern / southern Ukraine.
      It is too strategic an area for him, he won't give it up.
      Plus this is not exactly Hitler invading the Sudettes, here.
      I've been myself in 2008 in this area, Yalta, Sevastopol, Dniepropetrovsk...they just want Russia back down there. So if even the population of this region supports Russia, let them split and get what they deserve (I'm not sure they understand how it is to live as a russian, but after all, if they liked their previous corrupt oligarch dictator...what can we say?)

      Delete
    3. HdH:
      Good article in the Slate-- Gives a history of Crimea. Kruschev 'gave' the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 as an anniversary present:
      http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/25/separatism_in_ukraine_blame_nikita_khrushchev_for_ukraine_s_newest_crisis.html

      Non-negotiable for Russia, IMO. Other thing to consider, Ukraine is a population nightmare, having hit its population peak in 1993. Downhill from there.

      Delete
    4. Hubert: Where are you getting your silver prices? Is that some old data?

      Delete
  13. Got to hand it to the boys over at KWN. They are now forecasting the following:

    "Historic Stock Market Collapse"
    "Global Chaos"
    "Nuclear War"

    Prediction made on March 1 - 2, 2014

    Duly noted and will track the accuracy of these calls as the year progresses, in order to verify and certify these guys as "acclaimed experts" or "veterans".

    We'll see.

    LOL.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark, I enjoy your posts--keeps everyone honest. The "N" word, really. Things have gotten desperate by the prognosticators of doom and gloom.

      "When I was a child, I spake as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child: but when I became a man, I put away childish things."

      Delete
    2. Reminds me of this verse also:

      Brethren, be not children in understanding: howbeit in malice be ye children, but in understanding be men.
      --I CORINTHIANS 14.20

      Delete
  14. As for the Oracle from Omaha, this is the truth and not made up. He is the single largest shareholder in Moody's and in an interview several years ago, he stated, "I don't think S&P, ourselves, or Fitch could have foreseen what has taken place in the subprime market and that it could systemically affect all of us in such a negative fashion". And of course another of his large holdings is Wells Fargo, and I think you all know where this is heading; sparks, of course

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Amazing how CNBC sends their media entourage over to Omaha to speak with the grand master. I seldom watch CNBC but sometimes when watching the markets I cannot help myself. :-)

      Delete
  15. the wheat mkt says it all; blow-off for sure; sparks

    ReplyDelete
  16. Steve,

    What do you mean, "blow off"?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Nate; the end of a parabolic move; sparks

      Delete
  17. Updated:

    Got to hand it to the boys over at KWN. They are now forecasting the following:

    "Historic Stock Market Collapse"
    "Global Chaos"
    "Nuclear War"
    "Global Financial System Meltdown"
    "World on Edge of Precipice"

    Prediction made on March 1 - 2, 2014

    Duly noted and will track the accuracy of these calls as the year progresses, in order to verify and certify these guys as "acclaimed experts" or "veterans".

    We'll see.

    LOL.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark;

      This is one of those times where I concur 100% with your assessment. I do believe we should duly note and record these outlandish predictions and those who uttered them as well as those places which published them.

      This is the same sort of thing that was occurring back when Russia seized control of parts of Georgia back in 2008.

      If anyone thinks the Russians are going to allow control of their main naval port on the Black Sea to fall into the hands of those who might be hostile to them, they had better think twice.

      Ukraine is a basket case in the first place. It would have been smarter for the West to simply suggest that the people be allowed to vote to partition the "nation" but to suggest that the West would go to war over that piece of real estate which has been cobbled together back under the USSR era, is nuts.

      The West will howl and howl and do nothing but talk anyway, just like it did with Georgia and then the new reality will settle in and it will be back to business as usual.

      Delete
    2. in the Roberts interview over at Mark's favorite site, KWN, I suggest that the former treasury official learn how to pronounce Crimea; sparks

      Delete
    3. "The West will howl and howl and do nothing but talk anyway, just like it did with Georgia".

      Yes...and then it is better to shut up in front of Putine, who is constantly testing weakness.
      Remember Hitler invading Sudettes and testing reaction?
      None?
      All right then, let's go for Poland...right, Tchecoslovaquia....etc...
      I wonder if Putine will consider invading further after seing that the West remains without any reaction.
      The chance is very small, but I would laugh if Putine used the tactics of the Blitzkrieg and became a bit berserk, one day, say if Obama pisses him off too much.
      Let's imagine he'd be granted the possibility to cross BieloRussia.
      Including BieloRussia, Russia could invade simultaneously from every direction all the baltic countries, Poland, Ukraine, Moldavia, and Georgia within 24 to 48 hours.
      Let's consider they stop there at the borders and build a wall.
      Would the West risk a nuclear war to save Poland, Baltic States, the whole of Ukraine, and Georgia?
      Maybe.
      Or maybe they would do like Europe did with Hitler.
      Hope Putine will stop there.
      I imagine this because it would be really "fun" to imagine the face of Hollande, Merkel, Obama, if, in one night, like in operation Barbarossa, they woke up one morning to be told that the red army just invaded half of western Europe.
      US, France, UK are nuclear powers.
      I bet they would never strike and risk obliteration should a crazy berserk Russia invade a few ex eastern european countries in 24 hours, with a simultaneuous declaration from Russia stating that they simply "protect the russian minorities of those countries, traditionnally and culturally linked to Russia" and that they "will not go further after that"...well, exactly like Hitler did.
      Fools, to show weakness to such a predator.
      Georgia.
      Then Syria and the stupid red line speech.
      Now Ukraine.
      Tomorrow Poland?
      I guess not, but who knows...after all this guy was dancing with a bear not a long time ago, he is feared by all the criminal oligarchs of his mafia country, so he may be a bit nuts if pushed too far...let's see...



      Delete
    4. Hate to say this guys..but...when we talk about war monger invading nations with leaders who may go too far or go a bit nuts or berserk .....who are you referring to ?

      Delete
    5. And...if we go to the bother (and waste of time) to track and record who and where bad predictions are made...then what?

      A waste of time guys...if you despise them...then don't read them. Every time you visit a website you are contributing a "click" which they use to entice advertisers.
      Move along...unless you want some kind of revenge...??

      Delete
  18. HUBERT, though your analysis of our weakened state USA is correct, war is always atrociuos with the "meek" suffering the most. Putin is a narcissist, as is Obama, which means everyone loses. God help the UKES who want to get out.

    ReplyDelete
  19. In my opinion , nothing violent is going to happen in the Ukraine , but there is no way the Russians are leaving … this I am expecting to be a long affair , in a very uncomfortable country for everybody in the west …. I think gold over extended , should get pull back finally , but I think the situation in the Ukraine will put a bid in gold that we didn't have before . This is not Syria .

    ReplyDelete
  20. Wanted to share my story on this latest trade. It had a happy ending trust me, even though I lost $3,600.

    I had GLD calls since 1280. Sold all too early at 1302. Missed Feb 14th going to $1320, was not reading Turd as much as Trader Dan. I now look at both.

    Bought more at 1325 for the run to 1350-1355. Was going to get out at 1346. Just missed it last Tue, wed down, you guys know the rest.

    I sold at 1325 Friday, all 85 calls I had. You see a lot of posts with bible verses in them, this won't have that. I just want to share what happened to me.

    Wed felt sick, like how could I be so stupid, why am I hear, why can't I get a job, I can't even trade right anymore, miserable. Oh me of little faith I know. I have not had a job in a long time and turned back to trading (wife works part time).

    Was praying like "how can this happen again, why didn't I pocket my $3000 gain????". So I am literally crying, since stressed out, and I hear "trust me". That's it. I was stopped in my tracks. I was like wow, I was taken aback. So I made it though that day. I had called my pastor and also called my brother saying guys I am messing this up again, I blew 3000 bucks. But I didn't sell.

    Thursday a little up in the am. We do devotions at 9am central time, we home school. Gold peaked DURING devotions. I COULD have gotten out -400 AFTER devotions, about exactly even during it, but that time is of course more important so I am not sitting watching all the time.

    All I had in my mind was "why would He let it peak then when He knows when we do that." So all day I waited for it to go back to where it was in devotions. Of course it never did. So prayed some more and asked for sign, weak that I am. So I asked for a sign. If my wife says "yes" I will hold for 1334. I go upstairs and ask her take your time, ask God for help, what word comes to mind if I asked you a yes or no question without knowing the question. She says "yes" after a pause. So I had a sign Wed and Thursday.

    Friday comes and still nothing, fading down as you know. I loose all ability to think, it was amazing. I was like "why am I alive, just really spiritual warfare. BIG TIME." I saw TF's post that he sold. I was confused that the dollar was going down and so was gold. I am sure I made posts and both sites. I wish I had that peace that was being offered, I wasn't taking it. I sold at 1323.

    The rest of the day laid there. Saw what it did last 2 hours, and figured that figures. Then it gets strange (like this isn't already).

    I KNEW it was going up to 1350 today (monday). I told everyone I knew, I just knew it but could not explain how I knew. Checked at 6:30 central time Sunday night and saw it up. wow

    The "trust me" I heard was a God who wanted to help pay my bills but He wanted me to trust Him first. For any Christian reading this, I just want this to impact you. I was trying to look to the world for wisdom. I had a voice tell me "trust me" Wed. Of course Friday I doubted it, asking whose voice was it etc. I felt like the disciples. Jesus tells them umm in 3 days I will rise again, in their grief they forgot or didn't hear it etc. I could have been paid to learn a lesson. I could have not read anything and just trusted and sold today.

    I saw the post of TF's of breaking out of the wedge, support at 1309 etc. I was looking at that and I listened to it, not all the signs I had. I didn't listen to the Friday podcast but read a few posts about there was language. I can understand his stress as well, i was there as well.

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    1. I implore everyone that made it this far reading to trust God more. If you are saved, lean on Him MORE. If you are wondering about the Bible, ask the God of the bible a question, honestly. Don't be like send me a winning lotto ticket, ask Him something you wonder about the bible. I promise in His time he will give you an answer. That is way way way more important that a winning trade. Sometimes even on fire Christians we can doubt. We can have faith for the future and live like atheists, with no faith for today. I hate I did that.

      I should stop now but wow I had a chance to trust and now I learned my lesson. As the paper price fades to zip as paper markets and the dollar dies, let's trust that our physical won't be sold even as we see real small numbers. We know the end to the FRN is coming. We know all the things the bible talks about for the end times, and man if it isn't exactly what we all see forming, wow I don't know what to tell ya. This isn't a surprise all this bad stuff. It will get worse but all things work for good to those who believe. Even this losing a new about 7k was a net gain for me.

      Trusting Him will have a bigger impact in your life than when you don't trust enough. Loosing $3600 when you could have had 3000 is a SMALL price to pay to KNOW Him more. But again He KNEW what I would do, He wanted me to loose it and gain Him, and be motivated enough to share this with whoever made it this far. As Bono says "the God I believe in isn't short of cash mister". He is the One with cattle on a thousand hills. I will be ok. I feel so good typing out what happened to me.

      Who or what are you putting your trust in? I pray for all the folks on this site, they will think about this and give Jesus a shout.

      I am just a Guy in Hainesville, but the risen Lord spoke to me and helped me out! He wants us all to reach to Him for help, with ANYTHING.

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    2. Gold is, and was, and always will be a very strange creature. When most think it should go up, and doesnt, like when the dollar is down sharply, they get very bearish because gold didnt go up when "it should have gone up". But then it goes up anyways, but most are bearish because it didnt go up when it was "supposed to go up". So most dont follow the "real" rally, because its so hard to know what the real rally is.So its not easy, never has been, never will be, but trade small enough so that its easier to handle those kind of situations.

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    3. Well, that's an inspired post.
      I think the christian's god is like a father to his kids.
      Sometimes kids don't know what's good for them.
      They don't always understand their father's decisions.
      They blame him sometimes.
      But eventually, later on, when they grow up, they realize that all their father did was for their own good.
      So keep the faith, even if you miss a trade or fail as a trader. Maybe it was meant to make you realize there is a better path for you. See a good thing hidden behind every bad thing on the way.
      Try to follow the path of love, compassion, and not to forget forgiveness.
      If that god is sending this message, I always thought he was the opposite of Selfish. Which is why I think prayers don't work as much when you ask for yourself than when you ask for others (should you decide to ask for something at all...which is hopefully not the only purpose of a prayer).
      I hope your situation gets better Tdf. And I pray that you'll always feel close to God throughout your life, whatever happens to you.

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    4. P.S : and remember that you are now part of the brotherhood of Trader Dan :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUBe2RTq74

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    5. I'm not sure God cares one whit about the stock market, futures, and FOREX platforms. But I am certain he is well aware of it and knows what those insiders are doing. Maybe we should have a prayer meeting daily before we trade and ask him to reveal to us what the insiders are doing? :-)

      Some people look at trading as if it's wicked and sinful. I'm over worrying about that long ago as I can never please man I shall not seek to do so. I'll simply rest in what he finished already on the cross.

      Happy trading. Whatsoever ye do do it heartily as to the Lord and not unto men. So trade heartily. :-)

      And whatsoever ye do, do it heartily, as to the Lord, and not unto men;
      --COLOSSIANS 3.23

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    6. Tdfxman

      If you are feeling such high levels of anguish in your trade, you're over leveraged and/or can't afford to lose the money. Only invest what you are willing to lose. If you can't afford a loss, find a safer trading vehicle.

      Delete
  21. for all the technicians out there, weekly triple tops are rare; we had such @1800 gold that held, but the triple bottom @1550 gave way to a major break; now we have 1.38 for the Euro, and even though it does not have the same amount of time, it still, I think bears watching; sparks

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    1. you mean the break out JUL '11 ?

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  22. weekly time unit from 14NOV11 to 10SEP12 its almost identical in shape to 17JUN13 to 3MAR14 … is there any reason for this ?

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  23. Short Covering can really be a thing of beauty; so far from 1180 to 1350 !

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    1. indeed …! made a killing with the miners MUX and LSG … suffering , or not making so much with TRX , but I m holding that one long term … I am out of the first two , looking for a pull back

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    2. Gold stocks and related ETFS are NOT confirming this move in GOLD; so I have started to buy GLL

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    3. you may be right … but take into account that we had a massive move in the shares recently …. I am not surprised they aren't moving higher just yet … the next big move in the shares will be once if we break out 1375 , in the mean time buying GLL its a good move , while we consolidate , and if there is a sell off , you are in …

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  24. Hope you are right; if you review my posts of a few days/weeks ago I only sold half my positions in Gold stocks (and only those which crossed the 200 day moving avg; one dog IAG refuses to meet my goal !!). I am now very slowly ( 20 shares at a time) averaging into GLL as a hedge. If you are right and Gold shoots over 1375 and the Gold stocks follow then I will sell the GLL at a loss.

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  25. yep … plenty dogs out there still ! … the short interest in some of these shares is unbelievable though … we are gonna need a bigger boat ! hahah i.e. higher gold prices …

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  26. GDX/GLD ratio rolling over once again as miners underperform and are getting dragged down by geopolitcal fears.

    Gold bugs need to cheer for soaring stock markets and improved economy so that the gold stocks can get dragged up by the back of the neck along with the overall market.

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    1. @Mark - true enough. same holds for Oil Cos--WTI +2% today GUNR -.63% (global upstream index). Risk off trumps spike in underlying commodity. Even worse for Kinross as they have a large mine in Mother Russia.

      But heck, what does it matter if we face the "End of All Life?"

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  27. Potential exists for a HUGE MOVE cut right through resistance like a razor through butter. Watch 1365!!!! Blue skies just overhead.

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    1. Potential exists for a HUGE move...cut right through resistance like a razor through butter. Watch Bielarus. Bullet the blue skies just overhead.

      http://i57.tinypic.com/nzp11i.jpg

      Only thing needed is Bielarus granting russian troops to cross their territory.
      Can't help considering the possibility that operation Barbarossa could happen again soon, from east to west this time.
      Have a nice day,

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  28. Tdfxman; you are taking these mkts far too seriously. if you have to be right, you will be wrong. you can not play with scared money. you gotta be fast and loose; sparks

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  29. I always like the advice that Art Cashin gives:
    "Stick with the drill – stay wary, alert and very nimble"…simple.

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  30. I'm always a skeptic…but…in regards to Yanukovych in the Ukraine.
    I know very little of the man or the situation…although I was in Sevastopol two years ago.
    Anyway…does it seem just a little too convenient that he is now accused of war crimes due allegedly ordering snipers to open fire on innocent people?
    What would have such a move accomplished?
    Assuming this guy is not a total moron…who would bother to make such a move regardless of how power mad they are?
    Is it fact or just another set up to get rid of someone who the West does not like?
    I just do not believe anything anymore regardless of source.

    I can say this about Sevastopol…I have never seen so many beautiful women in my entire life…I'm serious!

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    1. Dean, it is good to hear from a man who can judge women and good scotch; as far as the situation there goes, I find it hard to get a real handle on it, but one thing I am sure of and that is that the loose verbal cannon pontificators at kwn should pretty much be ignored, as they find the end of the world around every other corner; take care, sparks

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    2. "who would bother to make such a move regardless of how power mad they are?"

      The answer to your questions lies in North Korea.

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  31. Steve

    I already ignore KWN…it's MSM I am starting to question…I think the whole lot of them has been corrupted.

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  32. Oh..getting back to Sevastopol.
    After seeing the women there…I understand why war could break out over ownership of the place !!

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    1. Then don't tell anyone about Samara or Novossibirsk, because you'd have all out war :)

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  33. Dean; you have to keep your eye on morons like kwn just to get a sentiment feel for things; sparks

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    1. You should be such a moron...they all can buy you with pocket change.

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  34. 50 year veteran of the mkts and running the floor operations, which, folks, does not amount to much these days, but, he lost his way somewhere along the line, even though his folksy talks are amusing, but Art, please, it is not The Ukraine, it is Ukraine, but you like Bush, have probably not been out of the States for a while, so, have a good one, old fellow, swb

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    1. Steve, both The Ukraine and Ukraine are acceptable: http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/country-names-and-%E2%80%9Cthe%E2%80%9D-the-ukraine-or-ukraine

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    2. ok, I stand corrected; sparks

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  35. Trader Dan:

    Do I qualify as a TECHNICAL ANALYST at all even on an amateur level?

    http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-news-units-gold-and-silver-analysis_22.html

    http://thenewsunit.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-news-units-gold-and-silver-analysis.html

    I'm hoping it's at least better than the KWN predictions. :-)

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  36. That didn't take long, only 24 hours passed for SPY to clear to record highs after so many said the world was going to end and gold was going to the moon.

    Really, its beyond hilarious to watch these Carnival Barkers screw up over and over again with these outlandish predictions.

    Can't blame them, millions of dollars to be made by selling fear to hapless fools.

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    1. Eric de Groot spot on about that and the flow of money generated by the Ukrainian crisis. Periphery is seeking refuge to the core of the system.
      The core will be last to collapse.

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