"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Range Trade in Gold remains Intact

Yesterday gold ran up and tested the top of the range ( $1,260 - $1,255) where it encountered selling pressure and backed down once again. That has proved to be a strong overhead resistance level against which bears seem to feel quite comfortable selling. Shorter- term oriented bulls, who can read a price chart and understand price action, simply have no stomach, at the present time, to press their luck. They are grabbing any paper profits they have and running to the bank with them.

As usual the GIAMATT ( Gold is always manipulated all the time) crowd is blaming the nefarious gold cartel citing the usual early hours hedge-fund selling for derailing old yeller but the facts are far less sensational and much more boring. Hedge funds playing the metal from the short side love to move in during the period of low liquidity in Asian trade to get the most "bang from their buck" as they seek to drive prices in their favor.

I have seen this stunt so many times during the overnight session in the many markets that I trade that I have longed for the days in which paper orders were run into the pit and handed off to brokers. One never knows when observing price movements during these periods of low liquidity whether news has broken that would validate the movement or whether it is just more game playing. The weary trader has no choice but to respect the move in price and then observe how prices act when liquidity increases as the session moves on. If the move was indeed valid, more often than not, prices will not reverse but will continue in the direction of the overnight push. If the push was hedgies playing games only, the price will reverse when the full contingent of pit players shows up at the exchange.

The exchanges, now that they are public, for-profit businesses who answer to shareholders, want to maximize profits and they do that by catering to big traders, no matter what time zone that they wish to play in. Meanwhile, those of us who unfortunately happen to be carbon-based life forms which require sleep, are forced to endure this idiocy in order to watch the exchanges' stock price keep moving higher. Just part of the job description nowadays is all that one can say about it.

By the way, after yesterday's shellacking of the soybean market, I thought it would be an opportune time to post a more recent chart of  the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. All of that index fund rebalancing has been wrapped up for some time now. You can see that we did get a wee bit of a bounce off the support zone but that upward price pressures remain quite muted. This helps explain the price action in gold and in silver I might add. While prices for both metals have improved, the index remains near 52 week lows thus undercutting any "buy precious metals for an inflation hedge" rationale. The market is still quite sanguine about inflation fears at the moment. I keep watching for any evidence that this might be changing but thus far I do not see any. We get bits and pieces here and there but nothing that is constant nor any sort of pattern that we can detect at the moment. Neither the inflation camp or the deflation camp seems to have the advantage. It is an uneasy truce.

I should note here that the IMF raised the issue of deflation in a report issued Tuesday. They termed it a legitimate concern. Yeah - we are all shocked, I mean, shocked, to discover this!  Parents - nota bene - when giving your children career advice, urge them to strongly consider becoming a bureaucrat working for an agency like this. You can achieve the miracle of getting paid a salary to produce mind-numbingly dull research which is essentially useless.

We have another one of those payrolls numbers report coming our way soon so we will get an opportunity to see if last month's was a one off as I suspect it was or whether it is more reflective of an actual sharp drop off in hiring. The revisions will be important in this regard so look past the initial headline number to see what the pencil pushers might or might not do with that paltry number they produced last time around.

The thinking is a strong number, much more in line with the 200K+ that we had been getting, will smooth the way for the Fed to taper as they have announced. A weak number along the line of the previous month, and they will be put on the defensive and forced to hold off on any tapering. One way or the other, it is going to be interesting to watch the gold price action. Those of you who are masochistic by nature, please make sure to have an unusually large position on in gold heading into the report. The rest of us can watch what happens to earthworms who happen to crawl out onto a sun-heated sidewalk in the middle of the summer - there really is not any difference.

Some news in gold that has been making its rounds is that the big international banks who participate in the London Fix have been meeting to discuss establishing an external audit of the entire process.  Personally I have always found it rather bizarre that the fix has continued for so long in our modern age. With the ability to collect data (price, volume, etc.) from all over the globe in mere seconds, what is the point of continuing this thing. I believe this process lends itself to far more dubious outcomes than any supposed shenanigans that have been claimed to been occurring over at the Comex over the last year. If a group of large grain elevator operators from all over the country got together to set the price of corn for that day, would not farmers be rightly suspicious?

I do not claim to understand the basis upon which various gold contracts are entered into, nor do I care to know, but I just do not like the idea of any group of large entities, especially banks, meeting (whether in person, by phone or videoconferencing or through whatever means) to determine any price of any commodity anywhere. If a farmer in Peoria can sell his corn to a local elevator operator at a higher price than say a farmer in Des Moines might get, why should he not be able to get it? After all, it is local supply and demand at work and is that not what a free market is supposed to be about? If the grain elevator at Peoria needs the corn worse than the grain elevator at Des Moines, let him bid it up in the cash market. The corn will flow to where it is needed the most until the local demand there is sated and an equilibrium sets in.

I might be simple-minded in this regard but I think the same practice should be occurring in gold, or any other market for that matter. Then again, this is why I am a trader and not a contract writer.

One last bit of news - the S. African union that controls the miners down there had planned a strike against both the gold mining and platinum mining industry for tomorrow. Apparently they have temporarily called off the gold strike. They plan to proceed with the platinum industry strike. And some folks wonder why big hedge funds choose to use the ETF's instead of the mining shares??? Last time I looked, no union decided to strike GLD. It is just another element over which an investor has no control and thus another element of risk that many big investing funds are choosing to avoid altogether by foregoing investing in gold mining companies.

The US Dollar remains rather directionless at this time. It is range bound with a bit of a higher bias to it as can be seen from the small upward channel to the right of the chart. It broke its downtrend that began last summer in late October and has firmed a bit especially to start the new year. Upward progress is capped near 81.50 while support seems pretty solid near the 80 region. I would expect gold prices to suffer were the Dollar to break out above 81.50 and hold those gains. The flip side is that a downside breach of 79.50 should see some good buying enter the gold pit. If the Dollar were to fall through 79, things could get mighty interesting.

If I had to pick at this moment, I would say that the near term chart structure favors additional Dollar strength rather than weakness but I am certainly not married to this view as the chart picture is anything but strongly lopsided.


  1. Dan, I have always had a lot of respect for you, but your daily bashing of gold and the people who like it is getting really old. If you think the gold market is not even a good market to play, then why do you constantly comment on it?

    1. own_quality;

      so let me get this straight - commenting on the price action in gold and what is actually behind the sentiment that moves prices is not considered to be "bashing". I suppose if I were to suddenly give rave reviews about "cartel induced flash crashes" that I would find favor in your eyes once again?

      I suggest you get control of your emotions and try to learn to be OBJECTIVE about markets. When the crowd begins to lean in favor of inflationary concerns/Dollar weakness, gold will regain its luster. Until then, it is range bound. If this is "bashing" this generation is in far worse shape than I previously feared it was and I already had a dim view of things. Your comment just fills me with even more concern for the future of my children because of the incredible lack of reasoned analysis that marks this era. The more hype and sensationalism, the better as far as most are concerned. Welcome to the Kardashian era!

    2. My point is that pretty much every day you take time to insult the "gold bugs" - for lack of a better term. It just seems odd to me that you enjoy bashing and insulting this group. I basically agree with your sentiment towards gold, but I haven't been able to reconcile your animosity towards these people who are already pretty beaten down.

    3. own-quality;

      Gold bugs many times deserve the scorn heaped upon them. There is a difference between a person who advocates gold as honest money which I believe it is and these perma bulls in gold who somehow have gotten into their discombobulated minds that gold must always rise in price, regardless on anything going on in regards to market sentiment and that if it does not, it is ALWAYS being manipulated. That is such a juvenile, infantile concept that it deserves any contempt it receives.

      Markets run on sentiment and right now sentiment is that inflation is not yet a serious issue. For that matter the Dollar remains firm. We have TWO INDISPUTABLE PILLARS required for gold to be in a bull market that are currently missing in action and yet these people continue to insist that the only reason it is not going up is because the nasty bullion banks/cartel are relentlessly attacking it.

      To anyone who trades in the market for a living, this is too stupid to require commenting upon. Frankly those who adhere to this notion have built a quasi-religion around it. I have some personal experience in dealing with people who have been involved in cults and I can tell you that the mind set is eerily similar. FACTS DO NOT MATTER. Very scary

    4. See that Home Button Sir? Click it and you will never have to read Dan's comments again. I am somewhat appalled by your rudeness to our fine Host who is very much entitled to his opinion on various Markets.

      I can only speculate you are very long the metals and are very much upside down Hence your misguided emotions. Dan is a trader " Trader Dan " A trader, not someone who marries a position ( Such as long physical metals ) which we can assume you are.

      Sit back relax and maybe you will learn something, if you are over emotional you lose money, if you are upside down relax your time will come to bailout, in the meantime why should I care about Job Gold bug and his upside down trade? here's a little info for you I don't!

      I buy Gold like I buy Insurance with the hope I never have to use it! In the mean time my SPY Long calls are doing just fine thank you.

      Keep up the great work Dan and thank you


    5. "To anyone who trades in the market for a living, this is too stupid to require commenting upon." I agree and that's exactly why I can't understand why you feel the need to comment upon this in every post regarding gold action. That's all I was trying to say. I think you are brilliant and a day doesn't go by without a visit to read your latest.

      Personally, I can empathize with gold bugs. They just can't understand how the financial/economic system can go on and on when it is so abused and broken. I bet you keep some food, guns, and physical on hand too. I do and it has nothing to do with fear of inflation or making a profit. It's fear of bankers and governments finally pushing things too far - which is inevitable. It's only a question of when. The great unknown lies beyond and it definitely won't be pretty. Paper and electronic promises may not buy much when we get there. That future is what makes me afraid for my children... seriously afraid.

    6. Bill, you are right. I should have never started this. My apologies Dan. Keep up the fine work. I'm not a trader, but I do have a need to understand what the hell is going on with commodities - metals in particular. I'm an analyst in the mining industry.

    7. Thank you OQ, you obviously are a stand up gentlemen. This is a tough racket friend, slow and steady wins the race.

      Please be well

    8. own_quality;

      thanks you for the very gracious replies and for the compliments although I would have to demur on being brilliant. I consider myself a knowledgeable guy with 25 years worth of experience and I think that tends to give me some perspective at times since I have seen a lot of market madness over the years and lots of strange theories and what have you.

      These modern markets are so unpredictable and so erratic that at times that they can drive most anyone insane with their often perverse price movements. It unfortunately is just part of our brave, new world. I personally lay the blame of a lot of this upon the exchanges which at one time were privately owned and existed to ensure the integrity of the marketplace. Now that they are publicly owned with listed shares, they are like any other business in the sense that they will put profits first before anything else (cannot blame them for that as they are businesses) but I do wish that there were some restraints placed on the activities of some of these gigantic hedge funds. I for one would like to see these near 24 hours round the clock trading come to a swift end but I am dreaming.

      best to you,

    9. " I agree and that's exactly why I can't understand why you feel the need to comment upon this in every post regarding gold action."

      @own : maybe to shake some people up? How do you wake someone up from somnambulism? from a nightmare? from hypnosis gone wrong? Maybe you start shouting a bit, hoping your patient will wake up?
      I think it is out of concern that Dan is trying to shake some lemmings out of their bad habbits, plus maybe anger towards those leading the pack and responsible for that state of hypnosis.

      People's actions come from what they are.
      Can you reconcile Dan's actions on this blog and personality with a Dan having pleasure bashing the gold bugs and their terrible losses?
      So maybe it's not bashing or insults after all.
      Just a good shake up aimed at clearing people's thoughts from the permanent mantra that you can read on other blogs (ahem...I just posted a link towards one of them today)

    10. P.S : the messenger bringing bad news is always killed. In this case, the bad news for permabulls is that they've been wrong in their manipulation theory. The messenger being Dan, he is received with animosity. But the messenger is not responsible.

  2. Wow, the clamoring for "paper" continues unabated. Check out bond yields, down again today, as guys like Kyle Bass and Jimmy Rogers who keep shorting bonds get killed over and over again.

    Still the best of all worlds for Yellen:

    - Interest rates under 3% now for a world record 29 consecutive months

    - Cheap credit available for pretty much anyone with a pulse

    - Subprime auto loans back with a vengeance, bigger than ever
    TBTF Banks bigger than ever, now pretty much government agencies, will never fail

    - Rolling crashes in commodity complex continues to drive CRB Index lower and lower, leaving even more room for further stimulus

    - Third world economies lurch from one crisis to the next, making the Yellen/Bernanke U.S. financials system the "8th Wonder of the World"

    - Energy prices still get slammed, cannot rise with worst cold weather in 100 years, gasoline prices essentially stuck in a 6 - year trading range going nowhere

    - U.S. stocks catering to the consumer, travel & leisure, etc. continue to soar into Outer Space, check out Starwood Hotels, Wynn's, LVS, etc. which is evidence that a world record consumption and gambling boom is upon us.

    - Gold and silver still stuck at lows, cannot gain any traction because the biggest money managers have absolutely no fear of inflation. It's like a football game with a score of 200 - 0, the "hyperinflationists" are so far behind its virtually impossible for them to catch up.

    Hey, did I leave anything out?


    1. Mark, I think you need an eye check-up, as my screen shows energies rallying; sparks

    2. Yes U left out something. Warren Buffet ( BRK), who once labeled Derivatives as weapons of Mass Destruction, is now playing them like a violin ! As Yakob Smirnoff would say : What a country !!

  3. Hi Trader Dan,

    I regularly read your comments with interest. Thanks for you great work.

    The trend is definitely down in gold but… was it Tom Demark who said that the trend is your friend until it ends?

    1. Me and Pulcinella;

      I am sure it was not Tom Demark who first came up with that saying as it has been around a long, long time. there are three trends to examine - short term or daily; intermediate term or weekly and long term or monthly. There are also derivations of those. A shorter term trend can turn without necessarily impacting the two longer terms. The shorter term and the intermediate term can also turn without impacting the longer term. The ideal situation for a trader is when he is going with all three time frames!

  4. Hi Dan,

    Everything you wanted to know about the gold manipulation is explained here, with all details and processes :)
    Yes, the 06th january drop was a take down, not a fat finger...but then...why did the prices recover just as quickly after that? And why prices didn't end up the day at the lows, but at the highs? :)
    But at least, now we have all the detailed explanations of the scheme, so no excuse for not buying it.
    Wishing you nice trades in gold, and everywhere else,

    1. Hubert;

      Have to disagree with ya here my friend. I maintain the big $30 drop was due to the inputting of an erroneous trade which the software did not catch and prevent from occurring. The trade was immediately reversed which is why the price rebounded within seconds.

      By the way, Mr. Roberts, I am sure is a nice man and an intelligent one. But he is not a trader as it is evident to me from reading the article that he is merely regurgitating the "theory" without providing a shred of evidence. We are supposed to believe that it is the nasty evil bullion banks who have been doing all this selling in the odd hours , blasting gold etc. but all the while they have been the biggest stoppers of physical gold and are actually net long according to the most recent COT reports. Nice trick.

      He must never trade soybeans or cattle or wheat or hogs because they make all sorts of bizarre moves during the Asian trading session. Also I wonder if these bullion banks are the ones guilty of driving many commodities to multi year lows recently. Perhaps they are also the ones bidding up the Dollar and the ones responsible for moving interest rates higher.

      I give up - I think we should all just write checks to the bullion banks out of our trading accounts because they are the market now and Resistance is futile.

    2. Hi Dan, sorry if my irony was not clear enough and I got misunderstood.

      I definitely agree with your above statement :
      "I maintain the big $30 drop was due to the inputting of an erroneous trade which the software did not catch and prevent from occurring. The trade was immediately reversed which is why the price rebounded within seconds."

      I posted the link for the sake of reminding your recent demonstation. It makes it more clear and obvious where his theory goes wrong with the facts. Like the immediate bounce you noticed with a chart :)
      Thanks for helping us sort out things as you do.
      Imagine a reader who doesn't know your site and knows only that other one. As a newbie, I'd sure be pretty much convinced by the "demonstration".
      Take care :)

    3. Hubert;

      My apologies buddy - I missed the irony.

    4. Is this a blog or a mutual admiration society !!

    5. Funny Hubert, I thought you were being sarcastic! Must be reading your post too much! Ha!
      I've made the mistake a few times of not letting people know I was being sarcastic. And I am a lot!

  5. own_quality, you are out of line saying Dan has insulted the pm bulls; he is merely calling them as he sees them; the fundamental and technical action, that is; relax and breathe through your nose; sparks

  6. Cattle and Milk futures are going to be an epic short.

    Just look at a monthly chart of cotton, coffee, sugar, spring wheat, silver and you can see the massive gains for those who shorted into the insanity spikes from a few years ago.

    Many of these commodities after hitting these super spikes eventually melt down and trade a multi-year or multi-decade lows, like sugar is trading today.

    Same with currencies, just look at the fabled Canadian Dollar, only just a few years ago fabled to be the new "supercurrency" due to the 35- year commodity boom being pushed by guys like Jimmy Rogers.

    Cando is now in a state of total freefall, simply amazing to see how these things crash out after being chased up by the Algo/Robo/HiFi traders

    1. Nat Gas looks to be in the same situation... Broke out big today through strong resistance and looks like it could be heading for the $5 range. It has been one volatile commodity as of late. But will it last past the cold snap in the East?

  7. Dan, while I know you are friends, is it safe to say you do not agree with Jim Sinclair's perspective on the gold market? Just curious, and not trying to be a smart arse in the least.

    1. coasta;

      good friends can be good friends and respect and admire each other even if they happen to disagree on some things at times.

  8. Quick question, isn't price manipulation, if true, great for the US? Don't we have to figure out a way to reverse the transfer of wealth to China? If we sold them gold on contracts we didn't actually have the physical to back at $1700 and buy it at $1200 we've made a hefty profit. That profit should work its way through our economy and benefit the whole, and by the way be a benefit if you're looking to buy jewelry.

    If we knew they were pursuing a gold backed currency standard so we manipulated the price up as they were trying to buy it, well, nice work. If it wasn't manipulated and just worked out that way, well, I guess even a blind squirrel at the Fed finds a nut every once in a while.

  9. Metals, Currency Rigging Is Worse Than Libor, Bafin Says:


    German Gold Manipulation Blowback Escalates: Deutsche Bank Exits Gold Price Fixing:


  10. NFLX soaring after hours, wow, wow, wow!!!

    Any wonder why institutions love stocks had hate gold?

    Looks like another metals smash after hours, firms like TIAA-CREF are dumping GLD and SLV to buy the gap up on some of these high beat screamers, LOL!!!!

  11. like I said before , the fat finger , manipulation , short slam dunk , software problem etc … put a top and killed momentum … thats a fact , and a hell of a coincidence … Also to compare gold to any other commodity and lack of inflation serves the purpose to find an explanation for the downtrend , so why was gold going higher for so many years on non existing inflation , I ask ? Expectations ? hell thats a hell of a long time expecting something to happen , I guess the glass is always half full or half empty , you can have opinions but no one has a clue what the hell is going on . Today Hulbert in market watch says gold going to 800 if rates go to 4% … but of course he doesnt mention what would happen to any other asset class if that was the case , given the state of the economy with rates at 4% I can only imagine what would happen to the average Joe . These markets have become a joke .. we are all muppets . Trading is the only solution , you are a great trader Dan , but when you start talking fundamentals you loose a fan here . No disrespect , and all the best as always .

    1. Anon;

      I am not sure what lack of fundamentals you might be referring to but I would have to strongly disagree with you when you stated "gold was going higher for so many years on non-existing inflation".
      Two things you must keep in mind and do not forget.

      1.) Gold is the Anti-Dollar
      2.) An essential ingredient in a bull market in gold is uptrending commodity prices.

      Contrary to what you are stating here is that gold began a TEN + YEAR bull market in late 2000/early 2001 at the EXACT SAME TIME THAT THE US DOLLAR BROKE DOWN ON THE CHARTS FROM the 120 level. It dropped all the way to 80 in 36 months.
      Anon - that is a fact - it was fundamentally driven so I am not sure what you are referring to when you claim that there was no fear of inflation.

      Under what circumstances can you describe a currency that losses 30% of its "value" in 36 months and have ZERO IMPACT ON PRICES? Answer - you will find none!

      Point #2 - the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was trading near 200 in the year 2000. By 2005, it was trading at 300! That is a 50% increase in 5 years. By 2008, just prior to the credit crisis, it had reached nearly 900!

      These are FUNDAMENTALS my friend. Gold moved on those fundamentals. It must have either a weaker currency and rising commodity prices to sustain a bullish move.

      Do you think it any coincidence that gold prices have been tracking the commodity indices lower since early 2011? Or that the US DOllar bottomed early in that same year near 73?

      I am trying to teach you that gold is not making random movements but it is being fundamentally driven. If you simply dislike hearing it from me directly, then at least look at those price charts and let those convince you. The longer you stay in the dark about what are some of the drivers that impact the gold price, the more susceptible you are going to be to the sensationalism and the headlines that regularly appear in the gold bug world.

    2. Dan,

      It is very hard to make a U-turn in your way of thinking, especially if you are fully invested based on those beliefs. There's also constant noise coming from a few sources that muddy the water. I think that Taleb was right when he said that more news you read about the market, less knowledge you have about it. It actually harms you, because it clouds your judgment. Two things you mentioned awhile ago (and repeated since) stayed with me:
      1. gold (in dollars) = inverse dollar
      2. gold is just an investment; no more, no less
      Once we get a handle on these two things and divorce our preconceived notions, the things become clearer (thanks for that).
      I still own the metal for the insurance, though.
      I like to believe that eventually, some years in the future, the gold bugs will be vindicated (alas, they will probably wish they were wrong).

    3. Dan , I rarely listen to the headline noise , from the net , I like to listen to Jim Sinclair , Jesse , Takoa da Silva some times and lately I like to listen to Jim Komiskey , I like his rants and he is fun to watch . I am a convinced gold investor .. I think good miners in any metal but specially gold and silver is were real value hides at the moment . I do look at charts … you can say the DXY index fell off a cliff in the period you mention , but you can't say that cause massive inflation , at least not the one the FED is selling us muppets . Also the USD lows is at 72 and the bounce to 80 … doesnt excuse the carnage in gold … if gold had fallen to 1500 and stayed there while the USD was bouncing , then perhaps that would make more sense . Finally the USD is raising for the wrong reasons ! not because you guys in the states have such a good dynamic economy and great bankers . The only reason the USD is rallying is because the USD is suppose to be the ResCurrWor … lets see for how long more investors buy that thesis … Only that reason alone should make gold and any other hard asset rally , but specially gold , way before anything else , and perhaps , together with the USD , initially , in humble opinion . I am sorry for my stubbornness but I am convinced that a certain degree of manipulation exists in this very rare commodity or however you want to describe it … I am not saying that you have three guys manipulating every single print , but I definitely don't deny it … Why are they so mysterious about how much gold is here or there ?? that doesnt happen with soy beans , does it ?? Anyway … just my thoughts … thank you for the work , best .

  12. Dan:
    The London Gold Fix endures for one reason only. It benefits the fixers. Its certainly non-transparent and would be illegal in the USA and should be outlawed in England. Just as soon as the politicians don't need campaign contributions.

    Sorry to be so negative really tired of the crooks. JMHO

    1. Mike -

      no argument from me at all on that one my friend! I remember when the Rothchilds pulled out of it some years ago. I see no reason whatsoever for this archaic fix to remain viable.


  13. I can't believe someone just so blindly ignoring the fact to defend himself of accusing manipulation theory.
    No, it's not a fat finger. There are sufficient evidences to show this was a well structured attack of gold price. It's not one single sell order. No, the price reversal was not because the trade was reversed.
    There are plenty of facts out there. Someone just needs to respect the facts.

    1. chalicewww;

      keep on saying it long enough and loudly enough and someone might believe you I guess is the theory. sorry that does not cut it here.

      It was a fat finger trade. Do you think Nanex is the be all and end all in the market? I could care less what Nanex says as I have my own sources that I trust far more than them.

      If it was such a "well structured attack of the gold price" as you claim how come it was completely undone in mere seconds? Don't worry - I won't hold my breath waiting for any explanation from your gang on this one.

      Oh and by the way, I could make the same argument you are making only in reverse by stating that some unknown entities are secretly working to manipulate the price of gold higher when by all rights it should be lower. How do I know this? Why the evidence is there if you were not so blind. How else to explain a $30+rise in mere seconds by some devious evil upward price manipulator. Note the sarcasm here.

      Give it a break already. This site is not for your conspiracy nitwits. It is a site for traders who understand that gold does not trade in a vacuum but depends on other drivers.

      Get a life besides watching the damned gold price already. Or at the very least go and post at those sites which are drinking the same Kool-Aid as you are.

      None of the gold is always manipulated all the time when it moves lower crowd will attempt to explain to the rest of us mere mortals why gold should be going higher when the US Dollar is moving higher and commodity prices are moving lower.

      Two of the FIVE main pillars in a bull market in gold are NOT PRESENT and yet we are to ignore that and somehow insist the metal must be higher right now because they say it must be.

      How foolish!

      The market will move higher when it is ready to move higher; not a moment later and not a moment sooner. It is that simple.

  14. Love the site and have posted before. I am taking some milk money from my dealings with my physical and playing around in paper again, haven't in years. This might not be the forum for it but I bought some calls on WMT here when it was about 75.05. Love the weekly chart, less vol today. Can anyone comment either ok or dumb lol.
    Also thanks to the poster who mentioned DBA, wow is that beat up.
    Also anyone have any fav trading sites where people discuss trades and ideas? I love Dan for gold, first heard of him when JS would post his charts years ago. Thanks

  15. It can't be a better place to read and improve knowledge about commodity or then your blog. It was a pleasant time which i

    spent on your blog. thanks for sharing such a valuable information with us. Hope to visit your blog again and read even more

    interesting articles from you Futures Trading in Agri-Commodities.

  16. Leaving Gold and Beef aside for a few moments, watch what Nat Gas is doing today ( Thu) am; rocket-- good for coal stocks ? ACI, Consol, BTU ? which are so undervalued now that all the need is high Nat Gas prices and a slight shift in the composition of the House and Senate at the mid term elections.

  17. GOLD breakout ?: As Ronald Reagan used to say " Well Well Well "

    $64K question: What will it close at today ( Thu ) ?

    Buying a few: IAG, SA, KGC and flyers for penny pinchers( PLG, DNN )

  18. MARK!!!! GOLD IS UP!!!! EXK UP ALMOST 8 *%!!!! WOW!

    (sorry I couldn't resist)

    1. Mark !!!

      Gold is up!!
      XLY and XRT continue the slow bleed…but don't sell !!…lol..back up the truck…lol..

      (sorry I couldn't resist)

  19. OK, why do we even pretend that we know something about why market goes up or down? Today, $ is stronger, gold goes up, stocks go down. Some genius is going to call this "flight to safety". The other day stocks were up, gold down and dollar was up which supposedly meant "good economy - risk embracing". Before that gold-up, stocks up and $ down "again-run to risk" ... You get the picture. Throw in the bonds, other currencies, real-estate, and do every possible combination of ups and downs and you will see that ALL of them happened within the last year. So, it's clear that all our rear-view mirror justifications of why market did this or that are just noise and useless at best and harmful at the worst.

    1. Abraxas;

      The Dollar is down SHARPLY today my friend. And yes, there is a flight to bonds going on.

      this is why gold is moving higher....

      China news has people spooked.

    2. Abraxas ,( whisper )… today the usd is not stronger , is actually falling hard

    3. Indeed! I stand corrected. I was focused on the US$ vs (diving) CANDO relationship, not realizing the greater picture.

    4. no prob … lol … I bet all gold bulls have tears in their eyes … (me included) I have gotten so used to getting raped every single trading session , that some how I expect the worst now that we have reached a critical point . 1265 1275 is the level , if we break above , shorts are going to get amaranthed … its a beautiful story , I just don't buy it .. every single time gold reached key resistance levels … shorts have been granted almost immediate gratification . They may even let it run a few bucks so weak shorts take it even higher so they present us with the paper load of contracts that we have gotten used to … gold bulls keep cool

  20. Maybe we can break up and away above 1260???
    Was wondering how the ADX is fairing today. HUBERT?? Volume going to finally get us liftoff?


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