"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Monday, January 6, 2014

A lot can Happen in One Second...

Apparently a $30 plunge among them. Nanex is reporting that in just one second, 4,000 contracts traded hands! Yes, you read that correctly - FOUR THOUSAND!

Eric Hunsander, according to a report by Dow Jones, stated that in the past, 1,000contracts/second has halted trading in gold. He went on to say that 2,000 contracts/second is very rare.

I will leave the implications to the reader.

It is quite remarkable to say the least.


  1. I would like to see what a "fat finger" trade looks like in gold from 1920 to 2000 in just one second. If gold does turn bullish again, that is in the cards.

  2. How come " fat " fingers only cause assets to drop (crash) sharply;
    can't we find a " thin ": finger to do the reverse ( melt up) ?

  3. Does anyone suspect someone is applying water torture to Gold shorts, Nanex says that spike down originated in Chicago. Since Dec 19 there is a definite change in behavior with drift down and surprise moves to the upside except for the flash crash today and 31 December notice with both spikes down they are repelled quickly. This is markedly different to most of 2013 where drift was up but surprises were overwhelming to the downside. Someone or something sure panicked this morning.

  4. remarkable is good … but Dan , come on man , you can do better than that …. try with M …MMMM , then add one A MMAAAAA …. it is easy one woe at a time

  5. Thanks for the free education Dan. It astounds me the quality of material that one can find for free when so many others are peddling info and opinions of more dubious value.

    Let me start by saying that I come from a background of "gold is manipulated, savagely, but that only makes it the same as almost everything else these days".

    Anyway, I'm wondering if you have any comment on a couple of points on Ted Butler's latest. Namely that:

    1) The size of JPMs gold short in 2013 was large enough to be a market corner and should have been flagged by regulators as illegal.

    2) Same as 1), but now that have a long corner of equal size.

    Ted maintains that "anti-cornering" rules are the single most important regulations without which commodity markets simply cannot function as price discovery mechanisms. Any comments on any of these points?

    3) JPM took delivery of double the amount of physical metal that any one trader should be able to take.

    I'm not trying to read tea-leaves to pick a bottom (well, of course I am, but only for personal amusement), I'm looking for expert opinion on whether Ted might be right about the size of delivery being "unusual".

    Many of us non-traders are operating under the feeling that big players seem to have privileges that everyone else lacks. The idea that if someone wants to sell 1 years worth of silver production short that I cannot "stand up to him" by buying it all and taking delivery has always bothered me on a moral level. Seeing now that maybe the powerful can indeed take delivery of whatever they want is very interesting to say the least.

    1. Seems to me the commodities markets are relatively small compared to the stock and bond markets. Implication is that many large financial institutions can take positions that move the market.
      The C FTC should be able to effectively limit position sizes so no one player can have too large a position or corner the market. It is their job!
      However these folks are too weak to even write the program to give us a weekly COT in a business that is fully computerized. Until these folks grow some cajones and funding don't expect any improvement.

  6. Is Gold Manipulated or Not ?
    (Which camp are you in ?)

  7. Hello Dan,
    Just read an article in the Wall Street Journal concerning "Pricey Beef Test Appetites. You were quoted, "If I could be 'long' chickens right now, that would be the trade of a lifetime." Since I am in the wholesale poultry business, that quote really caught my attention. Can you elaborate on what you think the chicken prices are going to do? Would it be possible to email you directly? Can I email you directly? Thanks! Michael Cook

    1. mc2522;

      Sure thing - I do have a view on where chicken prices are going but would enjoy chatting with someone in the industry. My specialty is more in the livestock end of things. Tell ya what - how about we make a deal - I did not realize that the Journal article was coming out when it did and I missed it. I would love to be able to read a copy of that since I did provide the reporter some thoughts when she put it together. Anyway could you scan a copy of it and email it to me? If you will send a short email to dnorcini@gmail.com I will respond to you and give you another personal email address that you can use so that we can chat about this.

    2. I would be happy to send you the article. I will do that right now.
      Thanks Dan!

  8. Would you care to share RE: "I will leave the implications to the reader."...i'm always eager to read your thoughts. Thanks if you care to share more on this. It seems to be (potentially) some kind of pivotal event/incident?

  9. No manipulation eh Dan? bet even your scratching your head over that one

    1. dave bennion:

      see the following link.... Duh!

  10. You have to ask what entity would want to sell something regardless of price. Answer an entity whose primary objective is to induce others to sell. In the long run greed and the market will render these entities irrelevant.

    1. thats the point , i don't give a rats ass who is behind , but why are they being allowed to do so ! thats my only problem . Now , according to the rules , the FED is not to be investigated for intervention within the markets …. so 2 plus 2

    2. The goal of the globalists is to keep everyone out of gold as the pond dries up. Who do you think sold those futures? Who has the power to do that? That's from official sources. The entity who did that "fat finger" garbage told us yesterday that we intend to do the same thing again and again until the gold price drops.

      Last time I checked it is working. No, not immediately, but I don't wait for the drop again. Look on the bright side those people who are shorting. If gold rises again, look to be bailed out by another "fat finger." Of course, that was no fat finger, but a very deliberate trade.

      Now that the end of year stuff is going away, gold is getting weaker again. That fat finger thing lingers in the minds of traders, and any catalyst to own gold here will be fought against. The dollar will remain strong, and gold will falter.

    3. Eph … look out my friend , if you bethink shorts are saved , think again … I don't think it is about letting gold drop further anymore , but about volatility on either side of the fence , they don't want speculators in comex period ….


    Is anyone watching PALLADIUM in the news?

  12. Looks like another "Epic Collapse" setting up this morning as the futures are rolling over.

    Yet another horrific gap down in GLD and GDX on the open.

    Nothing has changed. PM's are still in a brutal, extended, long term bear market.

  13. Another "Perfect World" day for financial markets:

    - Dow Jones still withing spitting distance of record highs

    - Commodities of every stripe and color getting waylayed

    - 10-year yield still under 3% after a world record 2 1/2 years of ultra cheap money.

    Hard to imagine anything going wrong from here.

  14. Mark

    Strange….you never seem to comment on days when the Dow is in the red.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.