“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Gold seeing some Dip Buying; Sellers digging in

After the strong performance yesterday, gold appears to be taking a bit of a breather as traders digest the recent move and evaluate where things stand. As can be seen on the chart, the market is pivoting around the resistance zone I have noted. Dip buyers are active, but so too are sellers as the market moves up towards $1260.

Volume is mediocre at best indicating the rather quiet price action as neither side seems willing to make a big bet at this juncture. Thus we wait to see how events unfold.

If the market is going to make a run at $1290, it will have to manage to stay above $1260, preferable $1265 to indicate that. If it stalls out here I can see it dropping back towards $1245 or so in an attempt to either uncover buying or, if that fails, to press into some downside stops.

Here is a chart of the metal at noon, CST:



Some of the pressure today is related to the news overnight that a budget "deal" had been brokered here in the US. If such a deal were to be approved by a majority vote in the House first, ( It is a given that it will pass the Senate), then any concerns over another government shutdown/soap opera/drama will be averted. That removes a bit of the reason that some buy gold.

I cannot pass on the opportunity however to comment on something that occurred yesterday. As some of you know by now, early in yesterday's session, a series of large bids pushing gold higher resulted in a temporary halt in trading. For the sake of my sarcasm, I will henceforth refer to this as the
"REVERSE FLASH CRASH". And yes I am mocking those who were peddling this nonsense about the Flash Crash recently as evidence that evil forces were conspiring to beat up on poor ol' Yeller.


I pointed out then and will do so yet again, there was nothing the least bit sinister about these large sell orders. They are being generated by hedge funds who are completely unfamiliar with the concept of SCALE DOWN BUYING and SCALE UP SELLING. Only those of us who have been around these markets for a very long time remember these concepts. The modern hedge fund knows nothing about the concept of "finesse". They brutalize those markets in which they trade. Ask any soybean trader or livestock trader and he will confirm that.

In other words, these enormous bids or enormous offers are now becoming the NORM, instead of the exception. They are merely the symptoms of markets that are increasingly at the mercy of hedge fund computerized buying or selling.

There are those who keep pointing out that no one looking to maximize their selling price would ever sell in such a fashion as to overwhelm all the available bids. That is true - but the fatal flaw in their reasoning is that they erroneously ASSUME that the entities doing the selling are looking to maximize their selling price. They are not. Once the computers start selling, there is NO THINKING. The response just comes. It is all about pushing price in your favor.

It is one thing to note a series of large bids or offers. It is another thing to draw fanciful conclusions from them. The proper conclusion to draw is that computers have unalterably changed the nature of our markets. Traders either adapt or they lose money.

Here is another thing - why is it that there is never an OUTRAGE when gold experiences a REVERSE FLASH CRASH? Or is this outrage only reserved for trips south in the metal? How about the poor shorts who are "unfairly attacked by such nefarious and blatant attempts" to force prices higher so as to paint the charts to favor the positioning of those traders who are on the long side? ( Note - the internet does not allow for sarcasm to be easily observed).

The refuge for those on the losing side of a market is always the same: "But based on the fundamentals, the market OUGHT TO BE DOING SUCH AND SUCH". Guess what? When a market does not "DO SUCH AND SUCH" according to what one thinks it ought to be doing, it does not care about those things which the other side claims to be most important. That is the hardest thing to get many to understand. All that matters is what the price does. All of these things are already well known by market participants. If the price does not respond in the direction that some expect it to go based on such things, then the simple truth is that those things do not concern the MAJORITY of market participants at that time. That is not to say that at some point in the future sentiment or opinion regarding these things could shift. It is to say that they are not important until at some point they become important. Grasp this simple concept and you are well on your way to becoming a professional.

I hope you can see my point - it is one thing to attribute lower price moves in gold to the bullion banks during periods in which gold is sharply rising and the feds are attempting to contain it. It is yet another to blame nearly every single move lower in the metal on nefarious forces.

Here is yet the irony of this. All the hedge fund selling managed to do ( I am talking about the Flash Crashes ) was to provide an opportunity for JP Morgan to pick up the metal at an even better price. Out of the total of 4,469 deliveries issued thus far for December gold, JP Morgan's HOUSE ACCOUNT has stopped 4,194! This is not insignificant!

Keep in mind that we are now entering what I and many other professional traders term, "the Silly Season". By that I mean we are going to see liquidity begin to slowly decline as many traders will be closing out positions/squaring books, in anticipation of taking some time off for Christmas. Some will be out of the market next week and will not come back until the start of the New Year. The result of all this can be increased volatility with sometimes unpredictable and inexplicable swings in price as relatively large orders encounter air pockets both above and below the market.

Also, some of the commodity indices are increasing the percentage of gold and silver in their weightings for next year. That will bring in additional buying by those index funds who benchmark against those particular indices - more fuel for the Silly Season.

For you Silver guys and gals out there - the grey metal is holding above the $20 market and is no longer a Teenager". That is constructive but it has a lot of technical damage to undo before it is going to see any upside fireworks that endure. I need to see the metal scale the $21.25 barrier at a bare minimum before turning friendly towards it. It does seem to continue tracking quite closely with copper. By the way, Chinese data has been supporting copper recently.

The HUI is also digesting some of those big gains from yesterday. While not a technical level, I would like to see the index hold above the 200 mark, which is more of a psychological support level than anything. After all, we are talking  a five year low here so keeping afloat above 200 would provide some consolation to the battered mining bulls.

As I type these comments, I am noticing Barrick is lower but well above the top of the huge gap on its daily price chart. As long as it holds that gap, the odds strongly favor a bottom in this stock. There is definitely some two way trade occurring in these mining shares now. That is a far cry from the one way trade that we have been seeing for a long time now. Goldcorp continues to reap some buying based off that recommended BUY from one of the analytical outfits yesterday.

I am noting something a bit peculiar at this time of the day - equities are lower ( almost 1% in the S&P), but long bond is also lower. Meanwhile the Dollar is also lower. That is certainly not the usual pattern we see. We rarely have seen all three of these markets down at the same time. Not sure what it might mean right now but it is certainly peculiar.

With the VIX shooting up above 15 once again, we would normally get some "safe haven" or risk aversion flows INTO TREASURIES and into the US DOLLAR. We are getting some of those flows into the Yen, which is the norm (even it is a ridiculously insane response ) but not into the Dollar. Again, I am not sure if this is a one day wonder tied more to position squaring or if it is the beginning of something more significant. I am inclined to believe it is more the former rather than the latter right now.

Bonds have come up off of their worst levels for the session but still remain lower as I type these comments meaning longer term interest rates are actually moving a wee bit higher even as the equities slide lower.

Some news in the livestock markets ( not actually market moving but interesting ). It appears that the growing number of drug resistant bacteria has caught the attention of the FDA. They are planning to now ask animal health companies and global drugmakers to voluntarily change the labeling on some widely used antibiotics which are  routinely used in the industry. The idea is to bring such drugs under the oversight of veterinarians and do away with the over-the-counter use. Cargill just announced today that they have already been working to minimize the use of antiobiotics.

Another interesting tidbit of news today - EIA gave us some data that states the US demand for foreign oil was just 26.8% of the total demand of some 18.554 million barrels a day last week. That is the lowest level since February 1991! In 2005, foreign oil was a total of 60% of all US oil demand. This shale drilling has revolutionized the US oil picture and I am thrilled to see it. We are not even talking about federally owned lands either. Those remain largely shut to oil production.









31 comments:

  1. Hell , yeah ! some bulls are cheering out loud about the reverse flash crash , its just that we are so very few that no one can hear anything !

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  2. Thanks Dan for the piece. I decided that the HUI is low enough to buy and put half of my capital into an HUI tracking ETF on Wednesday. I'm more scared of missing the rally than not buying the low. Go figure. Will wait until we get the year-end numbers before l think about how to use the rest of my capital.

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  3. Gold and mining shares bludgeoned today as it appears the stock market has probably topped intermediate term.

    As usual, if stocks go down into a cyclical bear phase, gold and gold stocks go down 3x faster as they are perceived to be the riskiest asset class ever.

    At least the owners of stocks like Twitter and MasterCard have plenty of time to lock in profits as these issues are up huge already and they have barely fallen.

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    Replies
    1. Mark what if the gold sector catches everyone of gaurd as money flows out of the DOW straight into gold stock jacking them sky high!

      Delete
    2. I would not be surprised if Mark worked for the gov. secretly. What kind of guy has nothing better to do than to come here every single day and pile onto the negative sentiment already so rampant.

      Delete
    3. He is on Fearless Forecasters under the name "PrintFaster", and other sites. His speciality is backwards - looking "analysis" of parabolic retailer charts - ooohs and aaaahs. And the reverse for PM's.

      Delete
  4. I have some reservation about even bringing up the comment about flash crashes....but since we're on the subject:The real flash crash that changed the gold market this year occurred early April. On April 11 gold was $1565 and 3 days later it was $1352. Silver went $27.80 to $22.70. The US$ index did not change much during that period. The reason we hear so much from so many market talking heads about market interventions and manipulation is simply people trying to rationalize what entity in their right mind would sell any product down in such a fashion unless there were game changing things happening behind the scenes.
    Dan, I know you have stated numerous times that gold bullion has been sold by hedge funds and I don't wish to open up that for any more debate but simply pointing out that so many comments have been made on numerous sites about manipulation because of the HUGE price drop over such a short period of time. I don't think people since then opine about whether overnight upticks or downtrends are hedge funds or others, its just that first heart stopping drop that has people scratching their heads.
    The rationale for hedge fund pushing gold down is simply to look at detailed market depth and growing short positions on gold stocks. I'm presuming the sell-off by these hedge funds are shorts/naked shorts as we can see the growing short position but not who is holding. So obviously pushing gold down provides a huge reward for going short. As bullion price has gone down so much since April so many miners are near their all-in cost of production and this further pressures share price. I presume supply/demand will eventually restore equilibrium but a lot of angry investors out there. The HFT computers are working their magic for this group and computer trading is making investors quite wary of actually playing the market. There was a piece on CBC television last night about Wall Street corruption and market rigging and seems everyone is aware of it but no teeth to do anything about it. Bart Chilton and others say they don't have enough people or budget to fight and firms paying a $Billion or more fine for bad practice is equivalent to me getting a parking ticket. We live in a corrupt world so its hard to blame the odd blog reader comment about bullion manipulation even if it is misplaced.... or completely wrong.

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    1. Chuck;

      It is all about market perceptions and hedge funds. When the perception changed that QE was not producing inflation, nor was likely to, hedge funds began to sell out of their existing long positions. Once that selling took price below key support near $1535, the computers shifted firmly into a sell the rally mode as the TREND CHANGED. It had nothing to do with manipulation at that point. It was all about hedge funds bailing out and beginning to get short. Why is that so hard to understand?

      too many people who set themselves up as experts on the gold market apparently have never traded another commodity besides it. This sort of thing happens all the time anymore. Price moves in either direction are exaggerated because all of the hedge funds move nearly in sync.
      In other words, there is no one large enough to take the other side of their trades and thus their buying or selling takes the market in whatever direction they are going with very little resistance.

      I trade a large number of commodity markets and I trade in size in many of them. I understand all to well the impact from large sell orders and large buy orders jamming prices all over the place, often without any particular rhyme or reason but I have been at this game now for more than 2 decades and I can tell you, that it is simply the nature of the beast anymore. Sadly, it is ruining all of the markets but there is nothing that can be done about it.

      Here is the other question - Who is putting a gun to the head of all the entities in the gold ETF, GLD, and forcing them to throw away their gold? Answer - no one... they are doing it because sentiment towards gold shifted when the bullish trend reversed and became a bearish trend.

      It is all about the trend Chuck. When the trend reverses, these same funds that are currently selling everything gold related will be back in on the buying side buying everything gold related. At that point, those who keep coming up with these "always bullish all the time stories" for gold will finally be happy.

      By the way, I am not blaming the "odd blog reader" for bullion manipulation. I am blaming those who keep putting out the same useless crap.

      They came out with one novel theory after another why gold prices were going to go to the stratosphere just any day now. I have already listed them enough, that BACKWARDATION CLAPTRAP which makes my blood boil as it was so convoluted that it was a disgrace any knowledgeable individual would espouse it. Then it was the lease rates, then it was whistle blowers who were going to spill the magic beans any day about gold price manipulation, blow the whole scheme sky high and send the price soaring. Then it was flash crashes perpetrated by some nefarious entity seeking to discredit gold, then it was the COT report, etc... all the while these stories are being pushed, the price of the actual metal was imploding lower.
      In other words, anyone who paid attention to that crap, instead of TO THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERED, NAMELY THE MARKET ITSELF, has lost a small fortune as their precious hard-earned wealth evaporated. DO you realize how many people could have saved themselves from such enormous paper losses had they just sold when the market told them to sell?

      That is all we are trying to do here - respect the market, discern the trend and the sentiment and act accordingly.

      Delete
    2. Dan

      You referenced the Whistleblower situation in your September 13th comment.
      Your comments at the time could have been interpreted (by some, not all) that the market move could indeed have been caused by the whistleblowers accusations. To people searching for answers they will often read but not properly interpret what they are reading. I know this because a friend emailed me the link when it came out thinking it was bullish for gold and that justice was about to be done

      Please understand that I am in no way being disrespectful or critical Dan..just pointing out how quickly simple comments can get out of control.

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    3. Dean;

      Yes, I well remember that late Friday afternoon rally. It got a bunch of people all bulled up for some reason. I was wondering what the heck happened to result in that sort of move higher extremely late in the session on a Friday afternoon especially.

      It did cause the market to rally higher but like anything else the price action told us subsequently not to be concerned about it because the rally did not hold. It was used to sell into and the market then moved lower.

      You will often see that sort of thing in a bear market. News comes out or rumors come out and the bears get spooked and being covering with some fresh bottom picking coming in only to then meet up with selling up at a better level as the strong hands use the opportunity to establish some new shorts.

      It was the same with the backwardation stuff when it surfaced as well as the negative lease rates. These stories circulate, especially now that we have the internet, very quickly, and impact the market but the real clue is whether or not the blips higher last. When they do not, it is a signal that the strong hands do not care about the news. Remember it is the market REACTION to news, stories, events, etc, that matters most.

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    4. "It is all about market perceptions and hedge funds. When the perception changed that QE was not producing inflation, nor was likely to, hedge funds began to sell out of their existing long positions."

      Dan,
      as the trader you are, this comment surprises me.
      I'm a trader myself and I am watching the charts when the Fed speaks. And it was in 2011, when Operation Twist 2 was announced - and NO end of QE - when in the first seconds the PMs reacted logically and then was DESTROYED.

      Since this moment, whenever I checked the charts when very bullish news came out for the PMs, they were smashed in this moment.

      A normal movement in a NATURAL bear market would not deny positive reactions when bullish news are released. The market reacts positively but overall trends lower and lower. Since the minute OT2 was announced, it was clear that Gold was not allowed to raise with bullish news.

      I will never forget the minute, when the last remaining national reserve currency of the world, the Swiss Franc, stopped to exist and was bound to the misconstructed Euro: in the minute of the news, Gold was crashed and hammered all day down more than 20 Dollars.

      It's one thing to trade and to respect the movement, but it's a completely different thing, if the painted charts are interpreted as a result of free markets.
      Even more because it has been proven, that FX, interest, energy, bond market are being manipulated even by private banks.

      I hope you do not really believe, that Gold was the only asset that was NOT manipulated.

      Delete
  5. Hello Dan,

    your blog is read in Germany,too. I'm Dakac and I' m a small private investor. I'm very grateful for that what I can learn in your blog.

    And I have a question: Can I use some of your charts for my blog or a german financial message boards?

    Thank you so much.

    Dakac

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dakac;

      Thanks for writing and for asking permission. Nowadays some just do it without having the courtesy to even ask!

      Yes, please feel free to use them. I would only ask that you just provide accreditation to the website here.

      Thanks!

      Delete
  6. of course Dan and thank you very much

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    Replies
    1. Dakac;

      You are welcome! Good trading to you!

      Delete
  7. Dan, serious question for you. Could the carpet bombing the gold market took from 1535 south in April been ONLY initiated by the bullion banks, to just get the selling started, all so they could get long? The bank participation report shows a net long of 43,000 contracts for the banks.

    I know better now after listening to you for a while that not everything is manipulation. I have to admit that I bought into that when I was new and dumb.

    Still though, logically that makes sense for those entities to do that right? Start the blood bath and then suck up all of the spec long contracts that have been dumped after the market eats itself all the way down to 1200.

    Thanks for you input in advance Dan, you are very appreciated.

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    1. Adam;

      Sure - any entity large enough to start the ball of snow rolling down the hill can expect it to become a huge snowball by the time it picks up some mass and some velocity.

      I do not dispute the idea the feds fight the upward rise in the price of gold. I have written numerous articles in the past about that. But that occurs in a RISING TREND for gold, such as had been the case for over a decade beginning in 2001. They try to slow its ascent since it was in direct competition with the US Dollar. A rising gold price signals a loss of confidence in the Dollar. That is a big no-no for Central Planners.

      but once the trend changed, the hedge funds do the selling. That is how they are able to move to the long side of the market. Since they are large players they need large sellers to accommodate them as they cover short positions and institute new long positions. It is a perfect example of how easily markets can be moved in this day and age. There is very little original thinking by traders anymore - just stupid computers doing what they were programmed to do by mathematic geeks. Get them selling, and they will all sell at the same time. GEt them buying and they will all buy at the same time. NO questions asked. Nothing matters to hedge funds except motion and they could care less which way it goes as long as it moves!

      Thanks also for the kind words.

      Delete
    2. Adam;

      by the way, I need to clarify, that in the second paragraph, where I use the words, "that is how they move to the long side of the market" - the "THEY" is the bullion banks.....

      Delete
    3. Dan, no argument from me here at all. I am in a profession where I get to deal with a lot of "big fish" personally, even though I am a young, small fish. I work with a guy who runs a 250 million dollar hedge fund, and you basically just said exactly what he told me today. It's all about momentum and movement and scaring small fish like me out of our positions with big moves either way. I also had a former CFO for a very large bank (won't mention which bank) reiterate those same sentiments. I appreciate you taking the time to write me a detailed response. Between the three of you, I have learned way more in just a couple years than I think I learned all the way through school and college. Thanks!!!!!

      Delete
    4. And also, I am finally starting to make some money on the side trading thanks to your wisdom, even in a down market. Its a great feeling!

      Delete
    5. Adam;

      That is perhaps one of the most encouraging posts I have ever read. I am so very pleased to hear that you are learning and doing well! Keep it up. Thanks much!

      Delete
  8. So here in Sparks/Reno, I buy silver eagles when I go down to the Bay Area for Christmas and gift my grandchildren for their birthdays and Christmas; I make a few calls and the premium over cash is $8 on silver eagles, and of course they can not get many more until January. My simple thought is that this is a very bearish signal, since it implies that these guys are scared shitless about another price break and so they hold no inventory. A $20 item and mark it up like that? Come on ladies, do you want to do real business or just steal? I would think that these guys will end up at Walmart or Kohl's before this bear mkt is all over, but they might be sleeping under overpasses before then; sparks

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  9. best site out there, Dan, hands down; sparks

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  10. With all due respect Dan you don't know who or why large sell blocks occur. Top analysts have been trying to figure this out for years. People like Adrian Douglas and Dimitri Speck as well as others have statistical evidence for manipulative forces. A recurring theme on here is everything unexplainable goes to the HFT bin. Ok, then provide source or evidence for your claim that block moves are HFT otherwise you are just stating an opinion not an arguement. A wholly disagree on block moves in gold being attributed to "HFT." That is unscientific and nonsense.

    I also have to bring attention your comment, surprising to say the least, that dollar and equities correlated today. It is true there have been pockets, days, and weeks like the week current, were the correlation has been inverted but in general throughout the whole year stocks and the dollar have moved up together.

    I think youre analysis is incomplete here.

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    1. ruterbach:

      With all due respect right back at you, please point out where I have stated that it is the HFT crowd doing the selling. Look high and low, hither and thither, and you will not find it.

      That is something you have erroneously concluded. Of course, I will not hold my breath looking for an apology from you for a slanderous accusation.

      What I have stated and will state again is that it is hedge funds doing the selling. these hedge funds that I refer to take positions and are not in and out of markets a thousand times in a minute. They are position traders and move in the direction of the trend.

      I do know exactly that they are doing the selling because I know how to read and properly analyze the daily open interest/volume reports and tie those into the weekly Commitment of Traders. That is where the proof is and why I have regularly provided charts detailing the rising number of hedge fund shorts and the shrinking number of hedge fund longs as they close out those losing bets. You can argue with that until you are blue in the face but facts are stubborn things. I suggest you accept them and deal with that and trade accordingly.

      Also the latter part of your statement is also incorrect. One look at the S&P 500 chart and one look at the US Dollar index chart is enough to dispose of that fallacious premise.

      The Dollar has been in a broad range trade since the beginning of the year. It has moved as high as 85 and was as low as 78.90 at the beginning of this year. It has been trending lower in that range since July of this year while the S&P has been on a tear higher making one new record high after another. In other words, you could not be more grossly confused.

      If you are going to try to nitpick at this site, then at least have the wherewithal to get your facts straight before making a fool out of yourself.

      As far as Adrian and Dimitri go ( not wishing to speak ill of the dead since I did know Adrian personally ) , they are quite wrong about gold being manipulated lower during this bearish phase.

      Gold is not manipulated except during BULLISH TRENDS when the feds attempt to slow or stem the price rise as much as possible in order to deal with this direct competitor to the US Dollar. This obsession of many of the gold bulls with price manipulation is getting quite old, even to someone such as myself who actually does subscribe to the idea.

      then again, you are entitled to your delusions if it makes you feel better about losing money by being long gold while it was in a bearish phase.

      Frankly I have some friends who believe in the gold is manipulated all the time theory whenever it goes lower. As much as I value their friendship, I also feel somewhat sorry for them because they are discrediting their reputations by being factually incorrect.

      End of discussion. There are too many gold bugs who simply refuse to recognize reality which is why among many large investors, they become recognized as quacks.

      Delete
    2. End of discussion? "Gold is not manipulated except during BULLDISH TRENDS" Well, at least you believe gold is manipulated. Again, however, where is your evidence supporting your claim gold is manipulated only during bullish trends?

      Adrian and Dimitri have not made - obviously - any claims on this down trend, they have simply provided ample statistical evidence supporting their claim gold is manipulated. They also provide evidence gold is manipulated into a down-trend so to talk as if the trend and the manipulation are mutually exclusive is inaccurate as to their position - which is not a "gold bug" position. "Gold bug" intended in your context obviously as ad hominem is a meaningless category, non-scientific and should be barred from serious study.

      You repeat on multiple occasion that HFT and "mindless" or "non-thinking" hedge funds slam block orders:

      "I pointed out then and will do so yet again, there was nothing the least bit sinister about these large sell orders. They are being generated by hedge funds who are completely unfamiliar with the concept of SCALE DOWN BUYING and SCALE UP SELLING...

      then the HFTs follow..

      "There are those who keep pointing out that no one looking to maximize their selling price would ever sell in such a fashion as to overwhelm all the available bids. That is true - but the fatal flaw in their reasoning is that they erroneously ASSUME that the entities doing the selling are looking to maximize their selling price. They are not. Once the computers start selling, there is NO THINKING. The response just comes. It is all about pushing price in your favor. "

      That is your thesis: Hedge funds flood and computers follow. So, I'm not sure where the purported misrepresentation by me comes from. Again, this is nonsense. Hedge funds are very much engaged in thinking and computers are not programmed to willy nilly dump futures contracts creating obscene risk gambles while there creators go on vacations.

      You can disagree and attack me personally - which you know nothing about - declaiming I'm "to your delusions if it makes you feel better about losing money by being long gold while it was in a bearish phase." Well, clearly you couldn't have any possibly clue as to what my financial situation is, what my financial assets are, if I own gold or not, if I'm even a trader, or anything else. This is ad hominem and again meaningless, non-scientific and should be barred for any serious discourse.

      The fact is if you look at statistical evidnce there is support for targets on manipulation or factors deciding when the manipulation will run its course- again, I refer you to Douglas and Speck on this. Gold will bottom when those factors are exhausted.

      COT just tells you comex futures data. Those categories are aggregative and don't reveal clients or motive or individual entity. It also does not convey any information or ongoings in other markets like the OTC and markets abroad. The fact you can discern in aggregate which category is selling comex is not useful to discern causality.

      "There are too many gold bugs who simply refuse to recognize reality which is why among many large investors, they become recognized as quacks."

      Well, Eric Sprott is diligent in his research and I think it is productive in shedding light on this market. His risk management and optimism on the ending of what he sees as manipulation may be in poor judgement but him and others who have painstakeningly tried to gather evidence in support of the manipulation thesis so people like you can make statements like "gold is manipulated...only in BULLISH TRENDS" etc.. are not quacks and are only "recognized" as quacks by the dinosaur mainstream media that is becoming more irrelevant day by day. To other informed people the provide valuable service so your defensive and juvenile comments are offensive and without merit.

      Delete
    3. ruterbach;

      hope you feel better. It is obvious you still don't get it.

      Eric Sprott may be diligent in his research but he managed to lose more than 50% of this clients' money because he failed to recognize that his view was irrelevant as far as the rest of the market is concerned. If that is "providing a valuable service" to others, then I am afraid we two have a totally different definition of successful trading/investing.

      My beef is really quite simple and should not be hard to understand. Those who kept insisting on the gold is always manipulated because "it goes down when I think it should go up" ended up seriously harming the financial well being of thousands who listened to them as some sort of guru INSTEAD OF LISTENING TO THE VOICE OF THE MARKET. Maybe that does not offend you, but it does me and I am quite vocal about these things because of one reason and one reason alone - IT COULD HAVE ALL BEEN AVOIDED IF PEOPLE WOULD LEARN TO TUNE THESE OTHERS OUT. They have no more insight into the next direction that the market is going to take than anyone else.

      You are entitled to your opinions but this website is not dedicated to gold manipulation theories. It is dedicated to helping others learn to read the voice of the market and tune out everything else so as to become successful.

      I neither have the inclination nor the precious time to waste dealing with people who want to argue about gold manipulation. I have stated what I believe and why. If you accept that, fine. If you do not, frankly I could care less. I have been at this business for nearly a quarter of a century and hope, by God's grace, to be at this for many more years. Your views will not impact my trading decisions in the least so ramble on if you must, but I would suggest if you find my views nonsensical, then stop wasting your time and stop reading them. It is obvious from YOUR ACTIONS, that you frequent these pages. If my views are so repulsive to you, then stop reading them. No one is forcing you to keep coming here.

      I will never understand those who seem to have nothing more to do with their time than to argue with others. I have especially noted that there are more sour apples in the gold bug community than anywhere else I have seen people drawn together by a common interest. There is almost a quasi religious fanaticism about many of them, yourself included. Anyone such as myself who dares to attack their dogma, elicits an attack deemed worthy for a heretic.

      Have a nice day

      Delete
    4. if u do not like the game, take your ball and go home; nobody likes hearing the same tired bellyaching; sparks

      Delete
  11. "Out of the total of 4,469 deliveries issued thus far for December gold, JP Morgan's HOUSE ACCOUNT has stopped 4,194!"
    ==Sarcasm On==
    So now that the Volker Rule is written JP Morgan wont be doing these trades and more
    ==Sarcasm Off==
    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  12. When you mentioned JP Morgan and the number of deliveries they account for this month it reminded me of this article from awhile back.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-american-silver-eliminate-silver-123000255.html

    Talking about how Pan American Silver (PAAS) removed all of their gold and silver hedges. Some less reputable "news" sites pointed out that JP Morgan was a primary adviser for PAAS and had been removing their short positions and were building long positions. Maybe they had advised PAAS that the hedges were not the right way to go?

    http://www.silverdoctors.com/did-jp-morgan-just-tip-off-paas-that-gold-silver-are-about-to-explode-higher/

    Who knows if there is anything to the rumor/story, but it's interesting nonetheless.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Nice blog and and information about where to buy gold online .

    ReplyDelete

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