Copper going in one direction; Equities in the other

Most of the readers of this site are market savvy enough to understand the connection between copper prices and the overall global economic picture. It is not called, "Dr. Copper" for nothing. All things considered, one would normally expect to see Copper prices moving in the same direction as equities. In a normal world, this would confirm that stocks are moving higher based on solid, economic performance in general while industrial demand and global growth keep copper prices supported.

That has obviously not been the case for some time now. Part of this is due to the increased supply of copper that came on line as a result of the push into the $3.75 - $4.50 price region. The response from miners was to ramp up production. This new supply has been unable to be absorbed at those formerly rich prices and thus price has been moving lower as copper seeks an equilibrium between supply and demand.

Price is now moving into a zone of strong support which has held the metal for well over a year now. Should this zone give way, and I want to emphasize that I am not saying it will, it would signify that in spite of Central Bank efforts to prop up global economic growth, such efforts are failing. I suspect that even the high-flying equity market would not be able to ignore such a signal for very long.

Take a look at a chart I have created comparing the price of copper against the emini S&P 500. Notice that since 2008, the general price movement of both items has mirrored each other. Copper prices have tended to rise and fall right along with equities. That is "normal". What is not normal is what we have had since February of this year when a huge divergence formed. While copper prices moved generally lower, stocks of course have been heading into the stratosphere.

How long this sort of abnormal disconnect can continue is anyone's guess but in my mind, it merely confirms the view of those of us who believe that the equity markets are nothing but a massive Federal Reserve-fueled bubble being supported only by huge doses of the bond buying programs of these Central Banks. Sooner or later, all markets tend to revert more to the norm. This is the reason why I am closely watching the copper market as it now enters the region of chart support.

Another reason I am noting copper because silver prices have tended to move more in sync with it of late. This goes back to that industrial component of the grey metal. If copper prices are not reflecting solid economic growth (especially in the realm of manufacturing), then silver is going to struggle UNLESS THE FOCUS OF INVESTORS SHIFTS TO ITS PRECIOUS METAL ASPECT. Even at that, it would necessitate a reason to buy the metal and that reason would be a shift in inflation expectations which currently are non-existent in the minds of the majority of market players.

We currently have these two factors therefore working against any sort of sustained rally in silver prices; namely sluggish economic growth worldwide and a lack of inflation expectations. If one or both of these factors shifts, then silver should find buying support. We do want to watch how copper handles itself if it were to drop into this red rectangle. If it can manage to bounce up and away from this region, we should see silver catch some of that as well and perhaps cement a bottom on its chart. Time will tell...