“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Friday, November 8, 2013

Gold Falls Under $1300

The combination of rising interest rates here in the US on the heels of a stronger-than-expected headline number for the jobs report and a higher Dollar left gold without much support in today's session.

Technical and psychological damage was done, first by losing the "13" handle and secondly by failing to hold near $1296.

The 1280 level did hold the metal today but I suspect it was more a case of shorts ringing the cash register after having a good week than it was a concerted buying binge. After all, if the US Dollar is prone to further gains in the week ahead, why would there be any rush to jump into gold in a large way? Why not wait for some further weakness to see if that develops and pick it up at a lower level? That would seem to be more prudent would it not?



What gold does early next week will be important. If it drops lower and fails to hold again at or near the $1280 level, odds favor a further move down to test the swing low near $1250. Bulls need to rapidly regain the "13" handle to re-establish the range trade that had been ongoing between $1300-$1305 on the bottom and $1320 on the top. Only if they can best the $1320 level do they have a shot at taking price backs towards $1338-1342.

Oh and by the way, the CFTC has gotten caught up on the Commitment of Traders data and we are now current with today's release covering the price action through Tuesday of this week.

Can we use this report to PLEASE, PLEASE but an end to this nonsense of "FLASH CRASH" chatter that is the latest fad among too many in the gold community seeking to affix the blame for a poor showing in gold to the nefarious bullion bank crowd. The data (again only thru Tuesday of this week ) shows that the brunt of the selling in gold has been originating from the Managed Money or Hedge Fund crowd.

Based on the Futures Only data, hedge funds sold a total of 10,319 futures contract in the period from Wednesday, Oct 30 - Tuesday, Nov 5. Using the Futures and Options data combined, that number grows to 13,018. Over that same period gold declined in price $37 from $1345 to $1308. This does not even include the further declines seen Wednesday thru this Friday where gold reached a low of $1280 before bouncing slightly. Clearly, the selling hitting the gold market is coming from hedge funds so let's put this latest sensational but utterly wrong concept behind us and move on to get to the truth. Note - the little bit of selling that we did see from the Commercial/Producer side of the equation came from long liquidation and not fresh short selling.

Do you not find it exasperating to see some continue to promote this ridiculous theory all the while  the largest gold ETF, GLD, continues to lose gold as Western based investors sell their holdings of the metal and buy stocks instead? What is so hard to understand about this? Investors and fund managers are looking to maximum returns. If they are long only funds, they will buy things that go up, namely equities. If they can go long or short, they will sell those things moving down, or at least failing to go up in the hopes of making some better profits on the way down. It really is as simple as that.

The question that none of those who keep promoting this rubbish can answer is what nebulous force is compelling investors to sell out their gold holdings in the ETF and gobble up equities instead? Is this same compulsion moving their fingers to hit the sell button when it comes to their gold shares as well? Is it Sauron who has returned in the form of the Necromancer and whom has cast a spell upon them all? Maybe it Darth Sidious who is using the dark side of the force filling them with an irresistible urge to sell?

Seriously, this is the sort of thing that gives many otherwise fine people in the gold community a bad name and discredits them when they really do have some good data to present that is worthy of note and thoughtful consideration. But when nearly every single move lower in gold is blamed on the bullion banks and the powers that be, it really becomes somewhat tragic.





104 comments:

  1. I for one, accept the fact that someone is selling gold. I don't know who. What I don't get is why they are selling gold. The mystery is all gone. The debt is out there at 17 trillion. And growing by a trillion a year. QE is the policy. Interest rates are basically zero. Nobody wants the dollar to be the worlds reserve currency anymore. And there is so much more. So with all of that, why is gold being sold? What more can there be? All the factors are bullish for gold. And now they are known. So my big concern is not who, but why.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Arnie,
      You are trying to reason the market.
      I'll tell you the why part.
      The why is because most hedge funds precisely don't care about this "why", nor about long term fundamentals.
      Hedge funds are only interested about the trend, the direction of a market.
      Why is not of their concern. They follow the trend to make money.
      Now look : short term, THEY are the ones who make the trend. Long-term, fundamentals will have a role. But short term you don't follow the flow of money. Don't fight the tide. Don't stand in front of the train. Only for long term investment as an insurance can you buy some physical gold. Don't trade long and stay long on shorter time horizons if the market goes down. Accept the market, don't fight it.

      Delete
    2. Arnie,
      Also it's not true that all the factors are bullish for gold.
      This is the debate about QE and like based inflationary forces vs natural deflationary forces.
      Who will win the war?
      Velocity of money is diving.
      Money from QE is being deposited in the banks, it doesn't meet real economy through new loans, etc...
      Modern economy is a complex thing, and looks like a giant experiment that noone can compare with anything done in the past.
      So maybe during the next months, we will see the come back of a 2008 deflationary scenario and gold prices will crash to 1000 $.
      Be ready somewhere in your mind for this possibility.
      Don't try to reason the market. Listen to it.

      Delete
    3. Arnie - I could not have said it any better than Hubert did. There are only two positions in a market - the winning side and the losing side. If you are long and the market is going down, guess what - there are more willing sellers than there are willing buyers at the current prices. You either have to get out or get short.

      I cannot even begin to recall how many times over my trading career that I swore up and down I was correct about a market and yet I kept losing money by watching it move the other way. Guess what - eventually I learned how to trade - that means I am only correct about a market if it is moving in the direction in which I am positioned. If it is not, I get out and live to play the game another day.

      Do not try to be a hero and stand in front of the hedge funds - they could care less about your dreams, financial plans, hopes, wishes etc. If they smash your account, they win... you lose. Don't become a victim. Learn to understand the markets and adapt. You can always get back into a market if it begins to finally move in the direction in which you anticipated that it would do but only if you have money left in your trading account my friend!

      Delete
    4. because we are in deflation and money and asset prices are being destroyed faster than it is being created.there is no velocity of money so inflation is dormant.the market will play out the current theme until it changes it's mind but for now gold is going down if your wise you will say thank you and buy more.gold will top out in 2032 if the cycles hold true, and should then be sold.

      Delete
  2. Dan is exactly right.

    Gold is getting sold in order to buy an asset that is going up, like U.S. stocks.

    More aggressive players are even shorting gold as a carry trade to buy stocks.

    There is no "Chinese buying", that is a myth. If the Chinese are buying anything, its real estate in Hong Kong, Los Angeles, New York, and U.S. stocks.

    There are no "Central Planners". That is also a fairy tale. The only thing the Fed has done is lowered rates to make borrowing easy and stimulate growth, and that is exactly what its supposed to do. Same with the ECB and BoJ.

    Sure, there are some buying gold here and there, from all over the world, but for different reasons.

    By far, the biggest money created by the liquidity tsunami is going mainly into stocks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "There is no "Chinese buying", that is a myth."
      Can you prove it?
      I have loads of statistics from different sources which show as a fact that imports towards China and via Hong-Kong are huge.
      Do you deny those figures?
      Are you saying they are fabricated?
      Or if you don't take them into account for "Chinese buying", then why? This gold is going to Mars instead?
      I'm open, so if it's so obvious for you that there is no chinese buying, you can probably easily demonstrate it through facts, stats, concrete proof.
      I'm waiting for your demonstration.
      Thanks in advance,

      Delete
    2. The idea that the Turks, Indians, and Chinese are smart buyers of gold means that the Western sellers are dumb is a dangerous conclusion to draw; sparks

      Delete
    3. C'mon Mark: "The only thing the Fed has done is lowered rates to make borrowing easy and stimulate growth, and that is exactly what its supposed to do." What about TARP, QE1234? 'backstopping' systemically financial institutions?

      The actions of the FED, BOJ, ECB are the textbook definition of central planning.

      I don't dispute that gold's trajectory is the work of speculators, though.

      Delete
    4. Steve in Sparks- right on. The West often takes it on faith that China plays the long game. There is a story that I've heard at least two very well respected asset managers tell to illustrate the Chinese ability to think on long horizons: It is the anecdote of Zhou Enlai, who when asked about the French Revolution, said, "It's too early to tell." Chuckles ensue.

      Everyone assumed he was talking about the 1789 revolution, but really he was talking the 1968 student protests.

      Delete
  3. It's end of the week, so I'll take the usual Month / Week / Day time units, watching if and where is there an opportunity of trading on the weekly time unit.
    As a reminder, I'm learning about trading, plus there are many different ways and methods. I'm sharing what I see as a complement to Dan's analysis, not to say this is the way everyone should see it. If Dan has time to comment on this trial TA, advice is most welcome as I'm not a specialist :)

    The decision unit is weekly, so the trade is middle-term, several weeks horizon.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/2cs6qgi.jpg

    On the weekly scale, I see a not too strong support price area near 1270 $.
    Let's Watch the monthly time unit for confirmation : yes, it is here, given this time by the mlh inf of the upwards pitchfork.
    But what would be the signal to get long into the market in this case, if markets are dropping? Well, I'll have to Watch the daily time unit.

    http://i42.tinypic.com/25gbc55.jpg

    Here we go again with the potential support area around 1270 $, given this time by the inf bollinger band! Until here, at least seems we have several time units confirming that this area may act as a support via different indicators.
    But...the Cdurs are going down simultaneously (red circle), MACD crossed and is heading down, and we broke the mlh inf of the green pitchfork. So of course, to get a long trade at 1270 area, I'll need to have a close look at the daily time unit for confirmation.
    If I want a shorter time trade, then Daily becomes my reference and I'll need to have a very close look for potential signs of reversal up on the 2 or 4 hours candlecharts time units.
    Have a nice weekend,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. P.S : of course, as well, if 1270 doesn't hold, I don't need to add another chart to point at the Head and Shoulders perfectly formed on the daily or better 2day time units.
      Breaking 1270 would imho not be a small trip down as we saw last time with the reversal at 1250. I would rather immediately target 1220 area. Of course, I can be wrong, but I'll trade accordingly to that feeling, and probably go short on a break of 1270 confirmed by a failed pullback on that area.

      Delete
    2. Hubert - thanks as always for your contributions. I enjoy reading your thoughts.

      Markets that are in these sideways periods are always a bit challenging to analyze because just about the time we get bullish, they reverse lower.

      I am trying to keep a closer eye on the Dollar because gold seems to have more recently had a much closer connection, although in the inverse, to its movements. I noted on that chart I put up yesterday that the Dollar is moving higher in a upward channel although I am the first to admit that the channel is not at all steep but more a grinding higher pattern. That is why gold is in a grinding lower pattern.

      to trade gold right now one is basically at the mercy of the forex markets and those things can change at the drop of a hat. IT does seem however that at least for the short term, the surprise rate cut in the Eurozone and the better economic data over here has forex traders viewing the US as the nation that will be the first to see higher interest rates and that is tending to support the Dollar right at this moment.

      Delete
  4. Silver, same thing, if someone sees a trend, please explain how?

    http://i42.tinypic.com/2lc41te.jpg

    Daily Bollinger Bands are horizontal within a range.
    Bol 100 Bands (ie weekly bollinger) are ALSO within a range.
    In terms of prices the odds are still we are going nowhere, though both Cdur down once again give me a nasty feeling regarding odds to break and go down.
    But trading now within that range without a clear trend Inside these time units?
    Bof...

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Capital Flows Anticipating A European Wealth Tax?

    Money doesn't get paid to watch Spongebob. Discounting probabilities, also known as anticipation, is the name of the game. What's sending capital into US stocks? A growing probability of economic suicide unfolding in Europe. Flight of capital from Europe could do the unthinkable by supporting a dollar that's suppose to be dying from endless iterations of QE."
    http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.fr/2013/11/capital-flows-anticipating-european.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. Replies
    1. Don't hold your breath. Mark dishes as he wishes without accountability.

      Delete
  7. 90% of yesterdays move was performed in a matter of seconds, but TraderDan insists in giving us End-Of-Day analysis like it still matters. That's why old-school chartists are typical cannon fodder for today's HFT trading reality.

    Dan, how about you stick to chart analysis and stop criticising the Gold bug community? Given that the Libor, Forex and Oil markets have recently been proven to be manipulated, it would be very plausible that such small markets as the Precious Metal sector could also be rigged.

    None the less, in case you still think the paper market isn't rigged:

    Stunning 90 Tons Of Paper Gold Used To Smash Gold Market

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/11/8_Stunning_90_Tons_Of_Paper_Gold_Used_To_Smash_Gold_Market.html

    Another Jobs Report, Another Leak? Gold Plunges & Treasuries Halted

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-08/another-jobs-report-another-leak-gold-plunges-treasuries-halted


    To prove things even further, during the week of the Govt Shutdown and no economic data or news was released, futures still moved in a frantic fashion at precisely 8:30am! Guess someone forgot to turn-off the algo stop hunting tgts that Friday...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AG - see my reply to Robert

      In the meantime that is why my pal Eric King has me on the Metal Wrap over there at KWN - mainly to provide some counter and some balance.

      Use Old School chartists do very well trading - thank you. We are survivors who learn to adapt. Johnnie one notes such as yourself are usually long and wrong because you cannot adapt to changing market conditions nor will any facts persuade you otherwise.

      When the chart tells me to be bearish - I am a bear. When it tells me to be bullish - I am a bull. That is how I make my living. I could care less about the HFT's because those are so short term oriented in nature that we learn to stay out of their way and let the market settle down before taking a position.

      By the way, 8:30AM is the open of pit session trading. Every single market that still has a contingent of floor traders and a pit, sees a huge surge in volume as soon as the pit session bell rings. HOw many examples would you like me to supply to try to teach you these things..

      Learn to get your knowledge straight before putting your foot in your mouth.

      Delete
  8. I'm wondering. Does anyone know if Rumplestilskin is still making gold from straw? Because it seems like the supply is unlimited.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Was it all short covering that turned the XAU, HUI, GDX and many individual stocks higher in the last hour Friday? Impressive against a $20 drop in gold, and just the sort of action that is ALWAYS seen ahead of a sustained upward move in gold. Also, the overnight Asian action was positive all week long. There was not one session where the NY selling extended into Asia. It wouldn't take much for gold to rally back over $1300 Sunday night, and then we'll see if the hedgers want to try it lower again. Dan's negativity (which he sees as practicality) is only another example of the extreme bearishness now prevailing. When the only sellers left are those trying to cadge a buck on a Monday-to-Friday short, you have the makings of an upside surprise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Robert -

      The name of the game in trading is to MAKE MONEY not to find reasons to comfort yourself if you are long and the market is going down. Traders are bearish when the charts tell them to be and bullish when the same charts tell them to reverse.

      When a market fails to hold chart support, and you refuse to sell, then be content to lose money. If it breaks through overhead resistance and you are short and refuse to get out, you are also going to lose money. You cannot argue with a market and succeed as a trader. Try to remember that.

      Keep in mind that I am not charging you a dime to try to teach you how to keep some of your hard-earned money.

      Delete
  10. Dan: Amen ! for refuting this nonsense being peddled by contributors to KWN about this great conspiracy to bomb precious metal prices. Bottom Line is the FED ( and ECB ) are battling some serious deflationary forces. Unintended consequence is bubble creation. Your commentaries are outstanding and it is timely that you have started to separate yourselves from those conspiracy mongers. I am surprised about Art Cashin's views.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. WolfWisdom -

      In the markets, everyone has an opinion. I have never been bothered by that or else we would never have a bear or a bull, depending on the market, and thus we would never have someone to either buy from or sell to.

      What I cannot stand however is misinformation that keeps people from understanding that the complexion of a market has changed and that its technical posture is no longer the same that it was three or four years ago. Too many sit and fight against the trend of a market instead of either getting out or going with the flow for the short term and actually making some money out of it.

      If some guys were not so damned stubborn and bull-headed, they could have shorted gold when it broke down through $1535 and HEDGED their entire holdings of the physical metal and not have lost a dime. Instead, they sit there and try to find one reason after another, BACKWARDATION, FLASH CRASH, NEGATIVE GOFO rates, whatever to stay in a losing long position. It does no one the least bit of good but maybe it makes them feel better about losing all that money.

      I am in this profession to make money - not to promote a cause even though I do have strong feelings about what the Fed policy and the huge indebtedness that our nation is racking up are going to do to us all in the end.

      Art Cashin is a true gentlemen and a first class act. He is widely respected as he should be because he has earned that. He and I share the same view about the dangers of the Fed's ever growing balance sheet.

      I wrote a recent piece noting that I was terribly worried when their balance sheet first began to approach the 3 Trillion mark. Now that it has come and gone and we are well on our way to 4 trillion, the market hardly seems to care. Well, at this point, what is stopping the thing from going to 5 or even 6 trillion? It seems that the more they print and the more they buy these bonds, the higher stocks go so the motto is "Don't worry - be happy".

      AT some point, and I simply do not know when, the game will be up but I have no idea how it is all going to play out. I remain of the view that it will take a huge blow to CONFIDENCE and then the fat lady will sing.

      I have written repeatedly to those who own gold - you own it because it is a form of insurance against fiscal insanity. Just like any other form of insurance, I hope I never have to use it. too many of the people in the gold community seem to be wishing for financial armaggedon merely so that the value of their gold will go up. That is like wishing for your house to burn to the ground so that you can get a check from the insurance company to build it a bit bigger than it was before and make those changes to it that you always wanted to make but never had the money.

      Delete
    2. Dan: Thanks for the reply.

      Re: "....I was terribly worried when their balance sheet first began to approach the 3 Trillion mark. Now that it has come and gone and we are well on our way to 4 trillion..."

      Part of the answer may be found in 3Q '13 commentary by Lacy Hunt of Hosington Management. The velocity ( another manifestation of deflationary forces which I referred to) keeps
      declining. Until that happens, Uncle Ben is on easy street and he can continue this potentially toxic. He was handed the balloon by Uncle Alan and had to endure one bursting. Why shouldn't he hand a bigger balloon to Aunt Yellen ( probably is what is going on his mind). He is in a trap !!

      Delete
  11. Can someone please explain this to me: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-11/massive-sell-order-takes-out-gold-bidstack-sends-metal-three-month-lows

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. blacksoldierfly - I am sitting here answering some comments and yours just popped in - it has already been answered - hedge funds....

      These guys who write this stuff as if gold is the only market on the planet that experiences this sort of thing are either ignorant of the rest of the commodity markets or they are willfully spreading misinformation. I will give them the benefit of the doubt and attribute it to the former.

      what happened in gold is nothing compared to what took place in the corn and soybean markets yesterday when the USDA report came out. That is why I have to shake my head in both disgust and sadness that there is so much misinformation out there when it comes to gold

      Delete
    2. Dan, very good and pertinent comments once again; For the most part, and I will repeat myself, the fact of the matter is that "most investors, speculators and gamblers are really looking to lose". That is easy to see, as the number of donkeys to your site has gone up lately, and that for the most part, they are all caught long and wrong, but of course they all shout out the old, old, tired fundamentals supporting their lame, losing positions. Do they not realize that all that exoteric horseshit is in there and only interesting at this point to only the most sophomoric hoosiers? Last, but not least, Hubert, you I am sure are a great guy, but come on, your references to Bollinger and COT are very tiring. If Bollinger really thought or knew his bands were of any value, would he release it to the world? And, if COT was anything more than a simple tool, would Steve Briese be trading, instead of letter-writing? There is no holy graille, ladies, so enjoy your weekend and family and that is all from Sparks, Nv; swb

      Delete
    3. So, a hedge fund trading as described in the ZeroHedge article I pasted (dumping 800,000 ounces of notional gold into the London Fix ) would be legal?

      Delete
    4. Steve,
      I really listen and find your comments accurate. But to suggest here that gold investors who are long here are a dominating factor here on this site is a joke. It is gold bears site because the action in gold dictates the bearish posture. Even Dan is a bear at the moment. I find most posts here negative. Some hold onto the fundamentals but rarely do I see a longer term bull being very confident. We are on the run in a corrupt market environment and gold is being driven down. I think Dan has it right but in the past I have also seen him lamenting the dropping of a large number of gold contracts in the middle of the night and how it smacked of something like manipulation. What has changed is gold has lost its mojo and it can't regain it. I thought gold would get hit much harder than it did Friday(Which had me thinking that most of the weak hands had been pushed out) but the consensus here says look out next week. I hope they are wrong.

      Delete
    5. maybe you are right, come to think of it; it is just that the bulls whine louder, not that they outnumber the bears; sparks to Concord

      Delete
    6. Concord - see my recent reply to chuck...

      let me add a bit to that as well - the only thing that prevents a hedge fund/hedge funds from driving markets all over the place during the more thinly traded Asian session is the presence of a large trader/large traders on the opposite side of the market who see the takedown / takeup attempt and move in to take the other side of the trade in size seizing what they view as an opportunity. If there is no such entity during that time frame, price is going to go in the direction in which it was pushed.

      I cannot tell you how many times I have been in contact with the officials over at the CME Group about shenanigans that occur in the livestock markets overnight. I can see it, every other trader can see it, but the problem is that it is perfectly legal. their view is simple - if the price gets pushed too far out of line with the market fundamentals, someone will come in and take advantage of the temporary distortion and profit. that is true but the problem is that occurs AFTER THE DAMAGE is done to the smaller trading accounts which get hit as stocks which are targeted are reached and set off BEFORE the price corrects.

      It is basically legalized theft if you ask me but there really is not anything that can be or will be done to stop it.

      Delete
    7. Thank you Dan,
      I have followed what you write for years. Your comments are finally penetrating my thick skull. Just taking the time you do for so many of us is beyond the call and greatly appreciated.

      Delete
  12. Dan explained, in an earlier post recently, very well how a deep-pocketed hedge fund can put a heavy sell order in at like 2:30 AM and can force a smash through a support level. And this is purely for the profit of that fund. It does not have to be a conspiracy by any govt. or bank. This was the first time I had heard this explanation and it rings true.
    If I have optimism left (for the support of gold above $1180, it is that the physical buyers in the East and central banks have held up the price of gold this well against such a great onslaught of hedge fund selling. Since the hedgies evidently have such ability to smash through resistance, if there were an easy way to smash gold to $1000 they would have done so already. On the other hand, the rise of the Dollar may be the factor they need to break gold down to a level of even more profit for the shorts.
    -Peter (in a more lucid condition than usual)

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    Replies
    1. I take no position on hedge funds selling gold as I'll leave that to Dan and other professional traders to determine who is doing what to whom. However, please explain to me why any hedge fund would dump huge, huge quantities of gold in such a short time frame as has been referenced in posts above as well as Sprott and many others....all in a matter of minutes. I could understand if it was some cause to make them panic but we're told to believe this is normal practice. WHAT? Hedge funds could knock gold price down in an orderly fashion to squeeze maximum profits but they don't do that but instead dump huge tons of gold in minutes? Where's the logic to that and for what purpose.
      Dan, most people are here as they respect your trading advice and you have spoken on this hedge fund take-down a number of times so I'm not doubting but just trying to grasp the logic behind the principle as I just seem to be missing it. Thanks.

      Delete
    2. Chuck, define systematic. You won't see charts that relentlessly climb or fall. It is much more usual for them to move within a range before being bumped to the next range, whether up or down. It happens across the board, gold isn't exclusive in this regard

      Delete
    3. chuck;

      In my earlier days as a trader, the real professionals were most often very quiet in their trades when they had a large position to either initiate or withdraw. They would spend days or even weeks working their way out of a market or into it so as not to disturb the equilibrium and obtain the best price possible for their longs or shorts or outright exit.

      In those days the bulk of the trading was called "DISCRETIONARY". That means traders used their brains and thought through market positions as they examined supply/demand for that market and then used TA to get into or out of the market.

      That is no longer the case in our brave new world. The hedge funds - In my view and based on my conversations with some of those managers - rely completely on computers. They are SYSTEM TRADERS. What this means is that they could care less about fundamentals (most of them do not even look at them when trading) but rely completely on the price action of the market. They do not attempt to therefore scale into and out of trades in a quiet manner. Rather, they attempt to drive the market in the direction in which they are positioned because they understand the computerized nature of the markets these days. Move a price far enough and all the computers will see it and give the orders on the same side of the market. In other words, I actually think it is much easier to influence markets (manipulate them) today that it was years ago because of the nature of today's trading.

      I am not disputing that a series of large orders in gold during the early morning hours is meant to manipulate price. it most certainly is in my view. What I am disputing is that it is the feds doing it right now.

      As I have stated before - gold is in direct competition with the US Dollar. that is the chief concern of the fed, that and its inflation warnings when it rises in price which is another way of saying the same thing. Right now the market is convinced that inflation is not an issue - even the trillions created by these stupidly insane QE programs. Gold is already in a bearish trend so why would they need to beat up on it anyway especially when the US Dollar is the go to currency for the moment. Besides, the COT Report shows us who is doing the bulk of the selling right now and that is the hedge funds.

      When/if confidence is lost in the US Dollar, gold will begin a SUSTAINED RALLY and then and only then will you see the bullion banks/feds come back in and try to slow the rise in price.

      One last thing - Sprott doesn't trade soybeans/corn/cattle/hogs etc, as far as I know. The same thing happens in those markets all the time. I should know - I make my living trading them not running a silver fund like he does. I have seen cattle in the last month make some of the most bizarre swings in price seemingly out of nowhere only to reverse course the next day or the day after the big swing. Trying to come up with explanations for what the hedge fund computers do is usually just making guesses at such times. All we can do as traders is either get out of the way and try to find out later what the heck was going on or pat ourselves on the back for happening to be on the same side as the barrage of sell or buy orders and getting lucky. There is an old saying about not looking a gift horse in the mouth. It fits sometimes in trading and trust me, it has very little to do with skill at times! :o)

      Delete
    4. Thanks, Dan, and a good explanation and makes sense!
      I also wondered if perhaps hedge funds might use knocking gold down as a sort of arbitrage tactic on gold stocks. Smack gold hard and then short gold stocks. The traders here would have the short positions and one could figure out who is doing what.....just a thought as this would make sense to me as nothing like fear to move a stock when the commodity is on the ropes.
      Your point about US$ is key. I would also think physical demand is another key driver. On that point, many gold producers are near the $1000 or higher (poor crop of managers over past decade is one story we hear for high production costs) and if gold goes much lower supply will begin to dry up rather quickly, do you think? Supply/Demand is always a key driver for any commodity's price range. If Eric Sprott's recent info release on world gold demand versus supply is anywhere close to correct then.....Houston, we have a problem. I guess the next 12 months will tell us more on supply-demand. Aside from making or losing money, a fascinating situation to watch as it unfolds.
      Dan, thanks for all your thoughts on this blog....helps make sense of a murky situation!

      Delete
  13. My thinking is the miners are bucking the downward gold trend due to the deflationary environment we're in. Costs of production are coming down, the question is how much are costs coming down relative to gold going down. We shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  14. As its Saturday night and I don't have much to do, I thought I would come up with different scenarios that could happen next week that would be significant for the gold market. For the bears, there is not much new. They have been able to gap gold down and run it down. They could take out the 1280 area and head towards 1250. That could cement this year as the biggest bear market ever in gold. For the bulls, they could gap gold up above 1300 on sunday night, run it quickly to 1320, keep it there and then head towards 1340. That could set the stage for a test of 1400 and maybe even take a shot at 1535 to really test that incredible breakdown. It would still be a bearish year, but not a record bear. Given the fiscal insanity that exists, the lower prices in everything is actually a reward and not a penalty. So until now, there is no price to be paid for it. If inflation is the penalty, then lack of inflation is a reward. From coffee to grains to metals, its been only rewards for record debt and deficits. Should be a penalty phase to follow. It could start as early as sunday night. Maybe there will be fortunes to be made in anything gold. But I guess the market will decide that. Just my musings on a Saturday night.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi Dan,

    Gold, in percentage points was down double that of silver. Any thoughts about why contrary to normal behaviour, silver held better than gold on Friday?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim Silver;

      I think it was more a function of how the copper market was trading. Copper tended to view that surprise rate cut over in the Eurozone as stimulative for the economy which would boost growth and thus copper demand ( at least that is the current thinking for the moment). Silver seemed to catch a bit of a bid with thinking running along the same line - namely that its use as an industrial metal would increase.

      Silver is a hybrid metal that spends time as either an industrial metal or a precious metal depending on the fleeting whim of traders on any given day.

      That is why us old timer call it the "play thing of the funds". They knock it all over the place most often without a lot of rhyme or reason.

      Delete
  16. Hi Steve,

    Actually I had a lot of doubts about Bollinger bands or using them as part of my tools until recently. I was convinced otherwise by a good trader with proven nice track records using them all the time and considering them mandatory. As I'm always curious and trying to learn what is working and what is not, I'm experimenting them now.
    Bollinger by themselves are a nice tool depending how you use them.
    I don't have enough experience using them to swear to you that it works, but I trust that other trader and am trying to use them now, on 2 specific ways especially.

    1) Find the time unit where the Bollinger are in a range, because it gives you the most probable field of volatility. It also most of the time gives you a target and potential place for reversal. Exemple : Bollinger 20 in Phase 3 down, and Bol 100 in range, you will monitor the lower bollinger band 100 period as a potential support, of course to be confirmed by Bollinger Bands going into phase 4, and faster time unit reversing first.

    2) Bollinger Bands in Phase 3 and for the upwards case, Bol 20 going much higher than Bol 100. Find signs of reversal in phase 4 and it gives you a nice entry short point. What I did for SP 500 recently.

    Ooops gotta go but I'll finish this post :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. So basically, Bollinger Bands are one indicator among others.
    As all indicators, they are not sufficient in itself to make a decision.

    But they help :
    1) spot / anticipate potential reversal price levels, that you won't see in price action alone. A range on Bollinger is not the same as range on prices.

    2) give a target to get out of a trade, or give a target to put a stop loss, i.e they help my money management for the risk / reward ratio.

    3) make décisions depending on which phase the market is in. The 4 phases of Bollinger show clearly that a market breathes, and alternates from high to low volatility periods, from Trend to Range periods. My trading stratégies won't be the same depending on the period, neither my use of other indicators.

    4) find the area where prices are most likely to bounce and remain, because by their very definition Bollinger Bands give you the area where prices spend most of their time.

    So we'll see if they are effective or not (provided that I myself know how to use them as an amateur lol), because I'm trying to be transparent in that matter. At the moment, my opinion that gold prices are without direction are also given by the range of bollinger in both daily and weekly time units, which is not immediately apparent on prices.
    That's why I say that prices have been drifting.
    It's not the only reason : a look at the reversal driven by Fibonacci retracements of the precious moves also show this decrease of volatility on the weekly time scale. But as usual, after that phase of indecision and range, a new phase of acceleration will occur. That's the phase I'm patiently waiting for.

    ReplyDelete
  18. "Short term" reason not helping god : since QE (2008), people were expecting that this would lead soon to inflation and hyperinflation. Now none of that happened. Instead they realize what velocitiy of money is and that QE "to infinity" maybe won't lead to the dreaded massive inflation, or at least not in the near future. Without inflation and without strong negative interest rates, good reasons to hold gold disappear. Add to that the fact that the stocks are the current trending upwards market, and money flows find their way towards stocks.

    Long term : Hattaway considers that Gold Production Costs are around 1200 $. I'll be putting a margin and consider 1100 $. Long-term, I think it is not a bad idea to keep your physical gold if prices reach or go Under production costs.

    http://www.tocqueville.com/sites/default/files/TGLDX_2013-10_ManagerQA.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  19. Dan thanks again for your always lucid analysis

    Considering the carnage in the developing markets the last time the Taper was close at hand before being pushed out further till next year ..There is a train of thought suggesting that if we do get the taper and the developing world starts to feel the squeeze as money starts to flow out again and into the dollar that these same countries will start to sell their holdings of US bonds in the need for cash pushing up Us rates further and causing all types of problems for the fed and us economy..My question is if this scenario played out would this in any way have any effect on the PM's as money maybe flowed there due to the uncertainty ..?

    Regards Brian

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brian;

      I think many would view such an occurrence initially as deflationary as a rise in interest rates would begin slowing any growth over here in the US which is completely dependent of low rates right now. It is basically what happened when the yield on the 10 year approached the 3% mark not that long ago. It sent a panic into the Fed which was talking hawkish prior to that and then suddenly and abruptly adopted a dovish view and announced that surprise NO TAPER which sent interest rates plunging lower once again and the Dollar weaker.

      There is a train of thought that the Fed will just keep buying any US debt that gets dumped by other countries and thus there is nothing to worry about. I do not subscribe to the NO WORRIES crowd's way of thinking but that train of thought is definitely out there in the market. Heck they are approaching a balance sheet of $4 trillion and the stock market hasn't a care in the world....

      Since we are in uncharted waters here with all this massive money creation by the various central banks of the west how this all eventually shakes out is unclear. I personally believe that a new monetary system is going to be the eventual outcome of this mess but what form that takes is unclear to me as is the timing of such an event.

      Delete
  20. Dan

    It seems each year central banks (especially the Fed) become more bold.
    Like you say, the Fed will buy any and all US debt...to infinity...it seems.
    So far so good, right up until the time when every other country in the world is expected to act in a fiscally responsible manner (or face economic consequences) EXCEPT...the US.

    What many of us suffer here is twofold:
    1. We never imagined that the money printing insanity could continue as long as it has with no consequence except to anyone with real assets and a fiscally responsible attitude (foolishness like fundamentals etc). The reckless, the gamblers and leveraged have faired extremely well with no end in sight.
    2. Not understanding that something that goes up for 12 years in a row is bound to take a nasty correction.

    Our crowd is no different than any other really except the others never get labeled, ever hear of a dollar bug, equity bug or bond bug?
    Are these people any less prone to have cheer leaders that say nothing but buy?



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dan excellent point as Richard Russell says gold is different it has been around longer than everything else.

      Delete
  21. GDX/GLD ratio still pinned at world record lows.

    Meanwhile, names like Michael Kors are making new world record highs, up 300% since its 2012 IPO.

    Clearly, the market is voting for the "Resilient Consumer", not hyperinflation or dollar debasement.

    LOL, when will these guys ever learn....

    ReplyDelete
  22. Priceline now over $1,100.

    BitCoin has gone from $295 to $350 in 24 hours.

    Newmont Mining plunging to 4-year lows.

    Unreal......

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing."-Oscar Wilde.

      Delete
  23. #EURUSD up but #GLD heading for 100... pitiful, and... #GLD 50 200 MA crossover

    ReplyDelete
  24. For gosh sakes.... take a nap for the next 18-24 months with gold and silver. We have worldwide deflation. U.S. equities is the only place to make money. DOW is heading towards 20,000. Gold and Silver will go sideways and likely down for the next 18-24 months. As we have more QE, more money will pour into U.S. equities and dollar will continue to rise... thus more QE to debase the currency. Eventually, this will cause some inflation and we will see precious metals wake up from their nap. There are no deep conspiracies going on just normal macroeconomics with a powerful central control mechanism. Go long equities and be very close to the exit door. Buy PMs on dips. If you got a lot of PMs just think of them as insurance. Even Kyle Bass said buy some gold and go to sleep for 10 years you'll wake up a very happy man.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed, a07216.
      Are you an algo? I'm asking because of your nickname :)

      http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/2013/11/stock-to-gold-ratio-reversed-in-2013.html

      Patience is the name of the game.
      As long as we are still in this downwards pitchfork in a weekly time scale, and gold unable to rallye during strong seasonal months, let's keep our gold in case of a black swan and stop monitoring its price every day.
      By updating his site every day, Sinclair might have given a bad habit to his followers : expecting something new or some price action every day as well? Once one made the decision to buy some phyz, it's done, no need to watch it ten times a day to see if it goes up or down. It might quite well go nowhere for another 2 years as far as I'm concerned, and that's not a problem.
      If you bought gold as an insurance and not for profit, then no need to watch prices all the time.
      If you bought gold for profit, and maybe paper gold and are watching gold prices every day, then why the hell don't you become a real trader and start trading, buying, shorting, several multiple markets and not just bloody gold anyway?
      In both cases, you have no reasons to choke because gold stopped going up.

      Delete
    2. Nope not an algorithm. I find that Martin Armstrong is one of the best economist going. If you’re a goldbug or conspiracybug you may not like his work. However at the end of the day... after 18-24 or maybe even 30 months... precious metal will come back again and he does a good job of explaining why. PMs are my insurance... I sleep just fine. I'm 2/3 PMs and 1/3 agressive U.S. equities. I have no debt, paid off house. I hold some cash.

      Delete
  25. hey ao7216, what happens when you don't make the exit when someone yells fire. With physical you live to tell about it. When the dollar music stops you don't want to be in equities, and you don't know when that is. Want a piece of the next currency, devoid of any 3rd party liability, get gold.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You can put in stops with your equities or other methods (buying puts) to protect yourself... all I'm saying if you want to make money U.S. equities is where it is happening... and yes there are risks, however until the FED stops the music... it going to be a grand party. I own physical PMs and have no debts.

      Delete
  26. Heh, Jim Puplava was making fun of those who had too much "dollar crash" protection in their portfolios, he was also making fun of all the doomers predicting $5,000 gold.

    Amazing how he pushed Peak Oil and precious metals themes for 10 years straight on his program, now all that has been thrown in to the trash bin.

    Former guests like Dave Morgan, John Doody, Frank Barbera, etc. have all but disappeared, nowhere to be found.

    Now its all about U.S. stocks, resurgence of manufacturing, U.S. the next Saudi Arabia, yada, yada, yada,

    Can't really laugh, so far he's been dead right and the gloomers have been dead wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mark, I admire your art of repeating yourself with so many hundred different combinations of the same post again and again.
      Would it be possible, again, that you tell us as well what are your positions, when you accumulate, when you sell?
      As far as I'm concerned you could write all this and still be long gold with 100% of your capital right now...

      Delete
    2. Hubert, relax, Mark is just pissing you off like always; nothing to say today because mkts are like watching grass grow; once all the pundits stop bashing the $ and explain to me what is so sacred about BOE, BOJ, ECB, and of course the almighty BRICS and all their brilliant policies, I will go bearish $ and bullish PM, but until then, the deflation argument is in charge; sparks

      Delete
    3. Nobody put Mark in his place better than you Steve. Where I believe you miss the point is that Hubert is right. What is the point of constantly bashing gold and it promoters endlessly. People who mindlessly post the same stuff over and over are paid to do so on yahoo message boards to promote negative sentiment. Mark motives are less clear unless bashers are now infiltrating thought provoking and useful sights like this. Mark is one of those people with a virtual portfolio. It is all make believe and he makes money cherry picking stocks each day. I suspect he is quite young and has time on his hands.

      Delete
    4. Most folks pay way too much attention to others, and that is because they lack personal confidence; there are letter writers and there are players; that is always how it has been; recent examples Weinstein, Ruff, Russell, Prechter; I have been waiting for years for their track reckords; oh, I forgot the best one of all time, joe Granville, may he rest in peace, brassey in sparks

      Delete
    5. Looks like dealers aren't delivering the goods in SILVER. Methinks they know lower prices are coming so they want to delay shipping until they can secure lower prices and short the market in the process. You gotta love capitalism! :-)

      The News UNIT

      I don't know much about dealers but man it looks like Mike Maloney has some egg on his face now.

      Delete
  27. :)
    anyway, I'm watching the 1275 $ support area.
    Maybe bulls don't show a lot of strength, but I don't see many bears here to convincingly break that support yet. And if we bottom from there, it will be a third bottom above the previous one...what's the definition of an uptrend, already? :)

    ReplyDelete
  28. Replies
    1. Hi Steve, as I said, as long as the downards pitchfork in weekly time scale works, you are right in this time unit. For me, bear or bull depends on time unit.
      On a monthly time unit, as long as the upwards pitchfork works (mlh inf 1270) holds, I would still disagree on this time unit. So I'll wait for end of november to see where we stand.
      Anyhow even in a bear market I sometimes try to spot a contrarian bullish trade within shorter time units.
      I think I spotted 1275 area this weekend as a potential support area. It's not enough in itself for me to go long. But I'm watching closely on the 4 hours candlechart looking for a sign of short term reversal. If the signals are there, I'll go long with a close stop loss and a good risk reward ratio. I'll sell 1/3 early in the profits as usual, and it will be a win or no lose trade. Let's see. I play step by step, to me, gold could be at 1000 or 2000 end december, that right now I don't care.

      Delete
  29. I will clarify my positions since everyone here is dying to know.

    Since the 2011 lows, I've been long the following stocks which have decent dividends: NUE, ESV, KLAC, DUK, EMR, INTC, JPM, KO, PG, JNJ, MO.

    Fairly balanced and conservative. I haven't sold a thing. Pays better than a money market account. I don't play the mo-mo stocks, but watch them carefully as a barometer of market health.

    I also have some gold and silver bullion in a bank safe deposit box literally 2 miles from my house.

    I'm not taking anything out of the system.

    Don't need to. Everything is fine. Nothing is going to happen anytime soon, until the market starts providing signals first.

    My poor aunt is an ardent gold bug and she squandered most of her retirement into gold stock mutual funds because she's an ardent follower of James Dines and other gold bugs.

    So far I have yet to hear any apology from these guys who have led many older retirees astray by putting fear into them about a dollar crash, system crash, and hyperinflation.

    None of which have happened.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Belvedere Bull, James Dines; I forgot to mention the arrogant one; talk about someone full of himself; sparks

      Delete
    2. Appreciated Mark. I was invited to fly to London for a Q&A when I emailed questions to a certain CEO about a certain company. Said CEO struck me as very arrogant too.

      I dont think that this particular gold promotor will apologize any further after the obligatory "im sorry, I underestimated this reaction" after assuring "this leg is not over yet" in 2008 or the "I'm horrified about the manipulators" after assuring "gold will not see below 1600" in 2013.

      My questions on the company weren't adressed and evaded, so it was a waste of time flying into London.

      If there is one thing I have learned from the last few years and this person in particular is you can not trust anyone and the ones that say trust me most I will trust least.

      Delete
  30. Mark thanks for the information. I agree the gold promoters owe us an apology. But we are not going to get it. Owning the stocks you do why gloat about your glam stocks? You don't own them. Most of us don 't either.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Why do we deserve an apology? When the stock market crashes does anyone ever apologize to the investors?

    Why hold any physical Mark? I am not being sarcastic, I am going to start getting rid of my physical due I don't think it will be of any use.
    Not sure if the local coin dealer even wants gold maples anymore.

    We were all duped, shame on us, not the charlatans. I hold myself personally responsible for reading all that garbage over the last several years.
    Gold has brought nothing but misery to most of us, that is not the sign of a wise investment.








    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And it just cracked 1280 tonight, wonder what it will be when we wake up tomorrow.

      Dean - as for the physical, you are doing exactly what I've been saying/asking about physical gold holders - what's the big safety of physical vs paper? When you take it in they will offer you the going spot price. Maybe 1270 by tomorrow?
      I remember when it was melting down they kept saying "that's paper gold not physical so keep stacking phyzzzz!"

      Delete
    2. Dean - I don't think it was all garbage from the last several years. It's just that the dynamics changed in gold in 2011, and few really understood it. I mean the Fed kept printing so gold should keep rising. People were so taken by dreams of gold they forgot common sense, I mean it went up for 10+ years and seemed there was no correction in sight, until it came fast and swift like a thief in the night.

      Delete
    3. Prophet,
      You are right. I remember hearing though, that a mania would ensue as it did in 1980 and the public would enter the market. I have a feeling GLD played an enormous role in keeping a lid on the mania.

      Lastly we never made a high of 2300 or so dollars which with inflation would have had us over the 864 high in 1980. All helped fool silly guys like me. I listened to a lot of people assuming they knew more and they didn't. Based on the economy I don't think it is over, significantly delayed however. Say two years or more away.

      Delete
  32. Even if I couldn't stand the heat of the price drop, probably because I would have bought most of it late in the rallye and at higher prices than now, I would simply not sell all my gold, for purely logic reasons.
    1) gold already lost 35% from its highest. It's huge.
    2) sure gold may go even lower, but production costs are not far away, it is a security net long term.
    3) if a black swan happens, gold may eventually double or triple or who knows how many multiples from here depending on the degree of hyperinflation
    4) if gold is part of the next monetary system as one of its components, BRICS will weigh to value it at multiples of its current worth. Actually I guess the Fed would eventually agree, to rebalance its balance sheet.

    Based on all that, I would not sell more than half my gold.
    That way, I'd put my potential future losses at a more tolerable level of pain, but I'd still give myself an extra chance to eventually make a profit from it (nominal terms) in a few years.
    With the other half I'd speculate wherever I want to.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Gold is an asset shield. I have been veey satiafied owning gold. I can spot the macro trends and hedge accordingly. When gold breaks 1000 I will take my hedge peofits and buy more gold. I have no feelings on what gold is doing. Observe and act. My equity holdings - spy and dia at or in the money 2015 options continue to do well. Heck with stock picking. I don't waste my time. A boat load of options does the trick and I sleep better at night.

    ReplyDelete
  34. SP 500 : I am out of my short position.
    Short taken above 1270 on short-term signal bearish and double top.
    Bough 1/3 at 1250.
    Second target 1/3 missed by a few points, I read Dan's post and raised it at 1235 but still was not enough by a hair's length, too bad :)
    Now the mlh sup of the Bollinger Band stopped diving down already and is horizontal, plus the Cdur went down all the way and prices only lateralized, confirming the strength of the upwards trend.
    I took my chances, but the market once again reversed early and is nearing the tops.
    So I'm closing the trade with a small profit.
    No hurt on this one,
    Better luck next time :)
    Have a nice day,

    ReplyDelete
  35. To support Mark about the potential of SP500, Dows and the likes...

    http://philosophicaleconomics.wordpress.com/2013/10/25/margin-debt/

    On the 4h candle charts, Bol inf is about to reverse up, 1275 $ confirmed as a support level, MACD about to cross its signal up. I'm watching closely to find an entry point with close stop loss. Pb is I'm blind : no ET MACD or Cdur or those time units to anticipate better a short-term reverse.

    ReplyDelete
  36. @ Hubert Du Haut:
    here's a late comment (better: compliment) to your posting Nov 8, 2013 10:44 PM.
    there were 2 quotes (for me) so important, that I noted them on a piece of paper.

    "Modern economy is a complex thing, and looks like a giant experiment that noone can compare with anything done in the past."

    my words when i talk to friends. past today's engineering of markets and liquitity, we have to re-write all our books on economy. because what they are doing now is an absolute no-go in all major theories on how to run an economy. - but so far it worked quite okay. (???)


    "Don't try to reason the market. Listen to it."

    very important principle. woth to be noted and pinned. something me myself does often forget.

    regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alex,
      What is the market telling you after you listen?

      Delete
  37. GLD now down 10 of the last 11 days.

    XRT printing yet another fresh, new, world record high as the U.S. Consumer is unstoppable.

    SPY has traded within $2 of all-time highs now for 11 trading days.

    Looks like all systems go for a huge economic boom and recovery and zero inflation anywhere to be found in the immediate horizon.

    I see no evidence whatsoever of:

    - "Frightening Hyperinflation"
    - "Currency Event"
    - "Fantastic Collapse"
    - "Breathtaking Crash"
    - "Hell On Earth"
    - "Economic Chaos"

    Can anyone else read a chart and see any evidence of the events listed above?

    I can't.

    LOL.....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The chances that it happens tomorrow are small indeed. Maybe an monthly update is enough? :)

      Delete
    2. I don't know, the USD can't seem to get any great traction on rally's. Someone is selling into it, could be China.

      Delete
    3. I spoke to a Walmart worker I know and he told me that over half of the consumers that checkout their goods are paying with food stamps. The consumer is getting ready for BLACK FRIDAY when they will kill each other over the latest gadget on sale.

      All is well in America. We're just waiting for the death of the U.S. DOLLAR now. It's coming!

      Most Important Video You'll Ever Watch

      I have to go check the latest from David Morgan now...

      Delete
  38. Wow, PM's blowtorched just now.

    Incredible selling, everyone dumping gold and silver to buy airline stocks like Delta, US Air, and Southwest, all making new highs today thanks to crashing energy prices and a strong U.S. Dollar.

    Go USA!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's fantastic! Eventually there will be a crisis and a group of those airlines will cycle through bankruptcy taking money from the shareholder and rewarding the CEO with bonuses. Actually it's going to happen as soon as I buy some of them. "CLICK"---look out Mark. I'm long stocks. You know what's going to happen?

      Delete
    2. Thanks to DOJ approval of American Airlines merger...Short squeeze

      Delete
    3. Mark

      I was in the Airline industry for 25 years...you go right ahead and back up the truck on Airline Stock, be my guest.

      Delete
  39. Bollinger 4 hours still both down, no reversal of the Bol Inf, no convincing MACD crossing signal, plus the bad signals in the daily unit as well (Cdur...), no, I have no entry point at the moment, no reason to go long.
    I'm flat and waiting.

    ReplyDelete
  40. That whole number $20 is getting closer for SILVER. Has anyone noticed that large quantities of supply at APMEX? I was just looking there because all the pumpers keep saying China is buying GOLD and there is a shortage of SILVER. All you do is type in the number "999" into any QUANTITY WINDOW of ANY ITEM there and it shows their amount in stock. I've noticed those numbers are increasing. It's a great gauge to check if indeed there is some sort of shortage. My the lines must be long at the coin shops these days!

    ReplyDelete
  41. Target 1000 comex gold. Plan accordingly.... that means I maintain the full hedge from 1632 failure all the way down....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Been doing some GOLD and SILVER research today to see if it's a buying opportunity for this sector. I agree it's going lower. My target numbers are actually $900 and $14 respectively. So lean into your short positions because I want to see what really happens to the mining stocks. I don't believe all the usual hype.

      Delete
    2. What hype do you hear? Who is bullish? You have got to be kidding. I listen to your super bearish stance and wonder maybe you are a contrary indicator. I don't see bullishness in gold anywhere, there was hype months ago but to mention it now is silly.

      Delete
    3. For miners it depends how long gold stays below $1000, assuming it goes there, if it's a V recovery no worries. If it's there a few months then things become questionable.

      Delete
    4. Eph & Unit--how did you reach your sub 1k targets?

      Delete
    5. MDLGTO: My sub 1K gold target is actually suggestions from traders in the NYC vicinity who actively trade the markets. They are not usually wrong. As for the hype I hear it's just on YOU TUBE from the usual suspects that I'm subscribed to in case they actually have some truth to report. It's hard to find the truth in the news today. That's why I look on Trader Dan's site here and have even been mentioning it on The News UNIT

      Other than that there's a list of stocks that are looking better and better all the time but the sector shifts are a little bit shifty today.

      Delete
    6. 1,000 is a very important (and symbolic number). The way gold dropped earlier this year, I can look on a longer term chart and see that 1,000 is a big floor.

      I knew nothing about Armstrong when I predicted this back in April, but my trading mentor, Al Martin, a permabear, also mentioned 1,000, and that was back in November last year. I found that hard to believe back then, but after I saw the 1632 failure (knowing that the 1525 number would be revisited) I thought it was a remote possibility. I saw the wind completely knocked out of this bull cycle. In fact, I think the reason why gold has not come down to test triple digits is that we have holiday seasons. I think in the Spring anybody long will hate the word "gold."

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  42. Same as the 49'er miners found out; Sellers of shovels, buckets, picks, and jeans made $ (See Levi Strauss and today's letter writers) ; move along, nothing here; sparks

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  43. Wow, now crude oil getting crushed.

    Deflation forces are relentless, at least the consumer is benefiting.

    Pandora, Men's Wearhouse, Burlington Stores, and Sotheby's all making fresh new 52-week highs today.

    Both the lower-middle class and the rich are reaping the rewards of deflation.

    The lower, lower class is getting a free ride with EBT cards, disability checks, and all sorts of government handouts.

    All financed with ease, as the Fed prints faster, deflation simply accelerates and the U.S. Dollar gets even stronger.

    Plain and simple, a financial miracle!

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  44. Looks like miners didn't buck the trend this time, maybe they've finally decided gold is going lower?

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