"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Tea Leaf Reading Time Again

Yes indeed, that honorable profession, that noteworthy use of precious time, that virtuous expenditure of human energy, has once again been called forth by the monthly proclamation of the divine oracles - namely the FOMC.

Ah yes, those dispensers of wisdom from above, of knowledge and insight, have graced us mere mortals with another round of insightful analysis into the workings of the machine we know as the US economy. And pray tell, what did they tell us this month? Not a damn thing that we already did not know!

They held steady - no tapering of the bond buying program - not that anyone out there expected them to announce such a thing - so now it is back to parsing the statement for CLUES into the inner workings of our monetary masters. "Let us see if we can anticipate their next move for in it, lies our fortune", is today's mantra.

For Pete's sake, are as many of you out there as sick and tired as I am of this pathetic routine already? What a nauseating display of groveling by the once dynamic forces of US capitalism - sitting around waiting and licking their lips to see whether their masters will toss them some chew sticks.

Regardless, the initial moves that I am seeing is weakness in gold, strength in the US Dollar and believe it or, downward price action in the US equity markets. This seems to me to be a case of "Buy the rumor; sell the fact". The markets were essentially bid up, (gold and equities) in anticipation of a continuation in the bond buying without any tapering and that is exactly what they got. So now what? Bull markets need to be fed and one has to wonder where the food is supposed to come from next?

Yes, the Fed is on hold probably until next spring at the earliest as far as tapering goes but some are gleaning a - drum roll here please - an early taper in December because  - another drum roll here - the Fed did not seem to be quite as negative on the economy as many were expecting them to sound, especially with so many of the various governors making the rounds right after the government shutdown ended and were sounding like the sky was falling.

this is leading Dollar bears to cover short bets and as such, bringing in selling to the gold market. It is also hitting silver. Interest rates are moving higher as a result. Here we go again....

I have not written much this week mainly because I am trying to spend my time in doing something more constructive than sit here and watch this idiocy all day long, day after day - I have been engaged in carving some pumpkins for Halloween, something much more enjoyable and in the larger scheme of things - much more lasting that the sentiment for each and every trading day. As a matter of fact, I am willing to bet that my carved pumpkins last for at least three days - far longer than the shifting mind sets of traders who seem to have managed to condense the entire business cycle into a 24 hour period instead of 6 months like it used to be.

Let's see where gold settles when the day ends... for now, $1360 has been reinforced as resistance which has held.

The dollar also looks to have found support above critical support near the 79 level on the USDX.

Looks like more range trade ahead which means the HFT crowd will be back to screwing with the markets once again and continuing to plunder the rest of us. I am thinking of making a new video game for Xbox. Instead of Call of Duty, I am going to make the HFT crowd the alien invaders while the "good guy" traders, get points for crushing them and sending them home crying to their mammas. Hey, I can dream can't I?


  1. Dan, PM bulls look like weak sisters if they can not handle a weaselly FOMC ; crude is weak but the products act ok; swb in sparks

  2. This was an absolutely crazy day. All the weak hands shaken out. The rally will continue tomorrow? That's what the closing suggests.
    By weak hands I mean the ones who do not manipulate the market so have no idea what's going to happen next and have to get out by discipline...


  3. Come on Dan, I get the .50 Cal Turrett seat. Please. Lemme shoot.

    LOL I am way past ready. Got all the ammo and ready fired devices I need. I think you just came up with lots of good targets. But, I have a few more and better ones than even the hedgies. Come on, Mikey let me get the Turrett seat and the .50 cal machine gun. Its fun, mike likes it.

  4. Next FOMC meeting not until mid December, lots of time for taper talk rumors and a steady decline for the PM's heading into January - Armstrong's $1000 target, let's see if he's right or blows this one.
    Next few days will be key, gold is had good support on pull backs last couple weeks, but since the no taper thing is out of the way we'll see if bids continue stepping up.

  5. I know what swb would tell me right now. I was lucky and the short swing in the miners is ready to collapse? Should I run or should I stay. Steve, come on, give me the same ol..same ol..short yen, beans and PM's ? swb in sparks nv

  6. I am thinking of wearing a Michelle Obama mask and giving out Xtra Large Hershey bars, when I was a kid, those were the be all end all. Maybe even give out some 64 oz xtra sugary cokes in a Bloomberg mask. That should shock all the government worker parents coming to the door this weekend. LOL

  7. Interesting.....
    Jim Sinclair, who has just accepted the position as Chairman of the Advisory Board for the establishment of the Singapore Gold Ex-change.

    Good for you Jim !

    1. Dean, thanks for pointing this out and he'll be a mover and a shaker in that position. The Asians are accelerating their gold acquisitions....so just a matter of time before they show their muscle. In the meantime they're quite happy to pick up cheap gold.
      The market reaction to the FOMC was really strange, or was it simply PPT at work? All gold stocks initially sold off and then bounced up before the close. Kitco immediately stated that "FOMC statement mildly bearish" and then 30 minutes later said "FOMC meeting dovish" so obviously they can't make their mind up.
      C'mon people, this is not rocket science. Fed statement in part said that the economy is too weak to taper. Duh...so this is good news LOL. As Dan has indicated so many times in the past, funny how this small group (fed) can influence the market so much just thru innuendo or a raised eyebrow, Talk the talk but can't walk the talk. All ketchup and no beef!

    2. Chuck

      I have noticed the same phenomena in headline news. You will have two different messages only an hour apart.
      I think the HFT programs scan headlines and will act accordingly.
      Just another game in the big Casino designed to fleece the sheeple.

    3. that is why I have $100 stops in gold and $2 for silver; why horse around and try to make sense out of academic and moronic fomc eunuchs? sparks of course and that is all

  8. Hi Dan, I don't play video games but I think you're on to something! I would buy one. Would it be too much to ask for some chart work? The trifecta, gold, silver and hui??

  9. the last few months I've been playing around in the numismatic market for silver coins where I started 40+ years ago. you can do alright if you have a good background. and it doesn't depend on the guppies at the Fed. not giving up on the gold & silver bullion but not playing their game for now.


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