“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Are we Beginning to see a loss of Confidence in the US Dollar?

Based on the price action, the answer to that question is it is certainly looking like that. The Dollar is within a hair's breadth of a strong region of support. If it does not hold, we will know the answer to this question is "YES".

I have also noticed that in conjunction with this move lower in the Dollar, interest rates at the long end of the yield curve are also beginning to drop once again. That is not good for the Dollar.


The catalyst for this was today's stunningly poor payrolls number for the month of September. Forecasts were for 180,000 jobs being created. Instead we got a pathetic 148,000! With that, it was a big "KERPLUNK" for the US Dollar and that sent gold careening higher as once again any notion of a slowdown or "taper" in the Fed bond buying program was immediately shelved.

It has been my opinion for some time now that gold will not mount any sort of SUSTAINED move higher unless there is a loss of CONFIDENCE in the US Dollar, which is in effect the same thing as a loss of confidence in the US political leadership and to a certain degree, monetary authorities. Trying to maintain an objective view of this when it comes to my own beloved nation is difficult at times to do but after watching the President's 1-800 INFOMERCIAL on the failed rollout of his healthcare law, it does not take a big stretch of the imagination to say that he looks like a cheap carnival barker pedaling a batch of snake oil instead of the responsible and serious leader of the free World which global investors expect.

Global investors are not stupid nor are they reckless with their capital. One shudders to think what would be happening to the US equity markets were it not for the fact that most of the $85 billion being created each month by the Fed is being stuffed into them. That is the only reason that they have not plummeted along with the Dollar.

All I can add to this is to say "Watch Out" if the US Dollar Index cracks chart support. That is far more important than any public opinion poll citing favorability numbers because it is a poll in which investors are voting and telling you exactly what they think about the current leadership of the nation.




69 comments:

  1. ok so if the dollar goes below 19, i guess it will visit 78 and if that fails, straight to 75? does anyone know where that would translate to regarding gold levels? is 75 a 1440 area? if i see 79 fail and 78 a sure area to visit, time to buy NUGT again....

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  2. got to agree but we do have 79, 78, and 75 underneath us, but that is not very comforting. Friday close very important and I am even getting less bearish the miserable Yen, so what does that say for my opinion on the $? Yep, you're right; swb

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  3. i meant below 79* ' (not 19, obviously)

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  4. The USD touched on the critical support 3 times end of 2012 beginning of 2013 and what was happening to gold at the time, started its tank from 1800 to 1500. So I don't think it's anything to worry about.
    Today's rally is just hedge fund games in my opinion. 148K vs 180k is not that horrible, also August numbers were revised upward from 165 to 195, so it's pretty much a wash.
    I think this is just a set up to a big final short in gold. JMHO of course.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sure even though the BLS numbers are rigged so in the real world based on true experience the jobs market blows..anyone who says otherwise is a true believing dope. Funny how you casually over looked the July revision 104,000 to 89,000 in your post classic look over here while I pimp my short position post .

      Delete
    2. Market doesn't act as if numbers are rigged. Jobs created, and no inflation. Yes, questionable in many minds, but gold's action last couple years doesn't care, these numbers are no different. Sorry wasn't aware of July numbers, but again nothing new and irrelevant to gold at this time in the interim bear market. Ya it took awhile to figure this out, but it is what it is.

      Delete
  5. Dan, any comment the FOFOA post on Forex being the real driver behind the price of gold?
    http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/10/gold-as-forex-currency.html?m=1

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  6. "I have also noticed that in conjunction with this move lower in the Dollar, interest rates at the long end of the yield curve are also beginning to drop once again."

    So just how does a lower dollar beget lower rates?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. davecydelll;

      the dollar was not all that long ago moving higher along with yields on the Ten Year Treasury. that was back in May of this year and continued higher until early July when it peaked out. I think that was two things... one - many traders/investors believed that the higher rates would hurt the US economy and slow growth. That was correct in my view. TWO - the Fed backed off all the hawkish talk on tapering...

      Combine those two issues and you have the reason for the current move lower in the Dollar. Thus far support has not cracked but it is being tested or at least will be soon. It if holds, so be it. If it does not however, then we are moving into that realm where the Dollar is losing confidence.

      Delete
  7. wait... GLD loses over 1% of its holdings (about 10 tonnes) and gold still moves up in price?

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    Replies
    1. Exactly. There is obviously no correlation between inventory levels and price of gold. That's right up there with that coin demand that caused shortages in physical around the world, apparantly. Then come June another $200 down for price of gold.

      Delete
  8. Shine on you crazy Diamonds... I listen to Pink Floyd when studying. As the dollar dies, dollar assets climb. Foreigners will literally own the country our forefathers founded. Nobody domestically will buy stocks or real estate, but values climb as foreigners freak out and deploy dollars at an ever accelerating rate. Not one person in 10 I talk to on the street thinks stocks will climb. I always ask people these things to get a feel for how the market will perform. The catalyst for the dollar dump into assets, of course, was the DC circus. While we laugh at the ostensible stupidity, the globalists plan to turn the US inside out is carrying on. Their final plan is for us to live on the land we grew up on, but have it owned by foreigners.

    As long as the govts, especially ChiCom, can keep gold down, they can continue to conquer the US by buying it out. There are two dollar worlds. The world we see, and the other one - the one foreigners with dollars see. Evidently, the two aren't meeting.

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  9. on the 8hour chart on gold, it looks as if the test down to the 1270 area is a sort of double bottom level which we have come up from from my point of view (especially if you ignore the tiny and suddent dip to the 1250 area) ....so if we can clear 1350 as the dollar tests or drops below 79/78, we could move above 1375 and i think above 1375 would sent the general gold chart back to bullsih and we could soon be testing/breaching 1445....i missed most of the bounce today and want gold to retrace a bit so i can enter but im gna restate my view that i do not see gold going below 1200, ever....and id be a little suprised if it goes below 1300 at this point too....and yeah, obbbbviously there will be no taper, theyll use the shutdown as a reason for a weak economy and no taper...and then the debt ceiling coming up shud be again bullish for gold..and the wards, and deficits, and yellen, and etc etc...more fundamental reasons for gold then ever before, so i like gold....and the market is getting overbought, lot more people saying that, and simultaneously, more people feel like gold has bottomed and is seriously undervalued.

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    1. The money printing is not what is driving gold anymore, as was proven with QE3 85B/month accouncement in late 2012, when the sharp decline in gold started - that is proof. What will feed the next leg of the gold bull is RISING interest rates which will create the velocity of money causeing inflation that we are currently not seeing.
      The Fed will taper at some point, perhaps March?, and that will cause interest rates to rise. Many don't understand this and will miss the next leg up in gold. All the so called fundamentals for gold have been there last couple years, and how did gold perform during this time?

      Delete
    2. i doubt they will announce a taper....and if they do, itll be followed by a totally reversed policy of added QE...because of the effect of rising interest rates..i agree that hands down rising interest rates are the most important think to the Feds...this 2 year over-correction/smash in gold is still part of a healthy long term bull market and i truely believe that the general bottom in gold is in with 1179 as the ultimte low for now..on the yearly chart it looks acceptable.....the bigger the drop the longer it takes to mend so maybe sideaways for a bit longer but i think eventually the fundamentals always win and theres a point where the technicals and fundalentals overlap and that point is nearing...then any black swan event can act as a catalyst...

      Delete
    3. Yearly chart? Look at the 20 year chart, the "correction" is still tiny relative to the run up. If 1179 is bottom it will still require a retest, then we'll see:

      http://live.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

      Delete
  10. Let's recap:

    Oct 17 - Debt ceiling raised. Gold pops $30 bucks (whoppee do). Then no "take down" or "smack down" as some call it to follow. Why?

    Oct 21 - Price of gold marginally in the red, while miners up 2-3%.

    Oct 22 - Payroll numbers out, 180k expected 148K reported. Not a huge miss but gold rallies on this info anyway. Even though August revised numbers were up and made it even for the 2 months. And this is what caused the semi-big rally?? Bull trap if I ever saw one, orchestrated by hedgies getting ready to short.

    Don't beleive me. It's all computerized and the miners 2-3% action Oct 21 rally showed it. Then Oct 22 bullion was pushed up on no significant news really. Next will come the short.

    Tomorrow gold will rally a bit, while miners start going red, maybe neutreual at best, then gold will follow back down and the downtrend resumes over the next few days. Lather, rinse, repeat. Until a $1000-$1100 bottom is reached.






    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DUST, 5 minute chart shows end of day down on heavy volume. If the miners are headed down you will sometimes see DUST have a rally in the last few minutes. Didn't happen.
      I'm not going long or short right now.
      Bull trap or Bear Trap, I'll let someone else's money play that game for right now.
      Everyone has been conditioned (even guaranteed) to the fact that gold is going to $1000.00..no questions asked...expect the unexpected.

      Delete
  11. On the daily time unit, the Cdur is showing that, contrary to before, when Cdur goes up, prices now go up as well. If we are in a trend reversal to the way up, it will be indicated by resilient prices when the Cdur goes back down.
    Besides, the Cdur of the longer time unit (week), is very down, so sooner or later it will go up, and that will be bullish every time those daily and weekly indicators are in sync up, supporting prices.
    This indicator is still in test mode for me, so don't make too much of it, but I wanted to share my observations.
    Since last time, gold indeed keeps going up and I still see a possible 1400+ target possible, towards de Bol100 which are in range.
    As usual, the odds would then favor a bounce back within the range, to be confirmed on the lower time units.
    Ooops...this time I guess I became really too "technical", sorry.
    Translation : target around 1420 imho possible, as there is still some fuel. Let's see what happens at previous 1350 cap resistance.

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    Replies
    1. Don't worry Hubert! we like when you are technical :) thanks

      Delete
  12. oops, forgot chart
    http://i44.tinypic.com/e868h3.jpg

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  13. BIG TEST TONIGHT...will the perfectly timed smash continue or is it over as I suggested a few days ago? We'll know by morning.

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  14. I think it should be mentioned that it may be most of the weak longs are out of gold now. Of course I have know way of knowing but the way gold has responded seems to indicate the shorts now need an event to drop gold to scare more gold longs out. Gold could be on better footing. Famous last words.

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  15. Thanks Dan,
    I think you're right that a big test is coming up (for the dollar, euro, gold) but these, l suspect, are fake head moves. This isn't the real game playing out (the one that we’ve been talking about for years). The US is in a much much better position that Greece or Spain, yet these European nations have yet to break. IMHO, that has to happen before the final moves are played out.
    What l guess will happen is:
    1) the dollar will break down, moving everyone bearish on the dollar
    2) gold will rise, sucking in those on the sidelines trying to buy the bottom

    Then the opposite moves will occur. Maybe Greece will need another bail out, or key policies in Europe will be blocked. While this is conjecture, l am adamant that Japan/Europe will see crises before the mass wakes up and starts running from the dollar and into gold.

    ReplyDelete
  16. "It has been my opinion for some time now that gold will not mount any sort of SUSTAINED move higher unless there is a loss of CONFIDENCE in the US Dollar, which is in effect the same thing as a loss of confidence in the US political leadership and to a certain degree, monetary authorities."

    Huh??? According to that reasoning, confidence in US political leadership and US monetary authorities soared in the last half of 2008 and early 2009 because the US dollar soared to multi-year highs.

    Uh, yeah right.

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    Replies
    1. unknown;

      perhaps your "handle" refers to your questioning what you are doing on this planet. Gee - why am I here? Here is an answer as good as any- to publicly display to me about how most people never learn the lessons of history and are proud of displaying their ignorance in public.

      You seem to have quickly forgotten the Yen carry trade and the extent of that leverage back then. There was a huge rush into the Dollar and into the Yen and out of basically just about everything else, including gold, at that time when those one way leveraged bets were unwound. Deflation fears were rampant and the US Dollar was viewed as the only safe currency, along with the Yen, into which to put money during a time in which financial institutions were imploding. It was King Dollar time.

      It was not until the Fed instituted the first Quantitative Easing measures that gold finally found a bottom as traders were absolutely convinced that INFLATION was now going to be the result of a Trillion Dollar + Fed bond and Mortgage Backed Security buying program that would eventually weaken the Dollar.

      The sentiment back then when QE began was that inflation was now guaranteed. that is why the CRB index soared along with equities. Tangible assets were being purchased out of fear of an erosion in the Dollar due to Quantitative easing, an experiment which had never before been tried on such a grand scale.

      The problem today is not one of inflation but one of a sluggish economy with falling prices, particularly wages. Until that changes, and confidence in the ability of the Fed to stave off such things fails, gold will not be able to mount a sustained upward move. That is my opinion - if you don't approve of that opinion; fine but spare me the snide driveling comments.

      To make it very simple for such a simpleton as yourself so that there is no way that even you can screw up what I am saying - That means confidence in the Fed to manage monetary matters is going to be key. It also means that global investors are concerned that the Dollar will stay weak unless US interest rates rise once again. This is the reason that ever since the FOMC governors this past week began speaking in one voice that the TAPERING was off the table for now (courtesy of government shutdown), the Dollar has been weak and gold has been garnering some buying support. Throw in an abysmal jobs number that confirms more of the same in regards to the Fed's QE purchases and it was an enormous GREEN LIGHT to many of the risk trades. TRanslation - buy equities, and some commodities, and sell the Dollar.

      The only thing a bit different this time from the norm is that bonds were now thrown out in the risk-on trade. Normally they are sold down but the thinking is that the economy is muddling along so slowly that there is no reason for rates to rise anytime soon nor is there any signs of inflation and thus we get bond buying.

      The Dollar has not broken chart support yet, but is very close. If it goes, it goes, If it does not, then it signifies that for all that ails it, investors are still concerned about the viability of the other majors.

      The next time you mock something I have written, stop and think before you make an ass out of yourself as you just did. I am in no mood to suffer fools such as you right now.

      Delete
    2. Hi Dan,

      Hope your mood gets better. Take care of yourself and thanks for the updates!

      Delete
    3. Dan, there are a dozen things that affect the value of a currency. Trade flows, for example, are probably as important, if not more important, than any speculative trading based on "confidence" in a government entity backing the currency. To ascribe the direction of any given currency merely on "confidence" in the government backing that currency is an absurd simplification.

      If you want to know why the dollar has been relatively strong since the beginning of 2012 (DXY bouncing around that 80 mark), you need only look at what the US trade deficit has done since the beginning of 2012. It's got little or nothing to do with the relative merits of the US government or federal reserve.

      I'm not sure why you brought up the price of gold, I didn't even mention it.

      Delete
    4. unknown;
      I have been trading currencies for nearly a quarter of a century. I think I know a few things about what moves their value. and if you do not feel that "confidence" in the monetary authorities and/or the political leadership of a nation has a significant impact on determining the relative value of a fiat currency, I suggest you think through that again. As to me stating that the "only" thing that moves a currency being confidence, that is a fabrication of your own bias.

      I have given you my opinion on this. If you don't accept it; frankly I could give a damn. It is what it is. that is the last thing I am saying about this topic to you. Start your own blog if you want to give vent to your opinions. No one is preventing you from doing so.

      I am attempting to read the price action of these markets and interpret the sentiment behind the day to day movements to the best of my abilities and for the benefit of those who take time to stop by here on a daily basis. If you disagree with that, then stop reading here and get lost.

      Delete
    5. You're probably the only one who gets it when I say the DJIA to 16,400 and beyond. I should have got that one on the S&P500 and said the S&P500 to 1640 and beyond but I missed that one. Sorry! :-) Did Jim mean the S&P500?

      Sure wish I had one of those amphibious vehicles. Did you ever take a rid in that one? Must be fun.

      Pssst: AA might be a good trade. Think aluminum for a few weeks it's good for the brain.

      Delete
    6. "It was not until the Fed instituted the first Quantitative Easing measures that gold finally found a bottom as traders were absolutely convinced that INFLATION was now going to be the result of a Trillion Dollar + Fed bond and Mortgage Backed Security buying program that would eventually weaken the Dollar.

      The sentiment back then when QE began was that inflation was now guaranteed. that is why the CRB index soared along with equities. Tangible assets were being purchased out of fear of an erosion in the Dollar due to Quantitative easing, an experiment which had never before been tried on such a grand scale."

      I'm relatively new to trading. I got into investing/trading back in late 2009, and I was washed up in the whole commodity boom back then. Make some good money, but seen it all wash away too.

      Now I know what the cause was :)

      Delete
  17. For over 2 years now the longs have wondered whether any low in gold would hold. With the euro near 138, it should be the shorts that should wonder, whether any high will hold.

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  18. Mercury begins its three-week retrograde trek this Monday, October 21. On Saturday, October 19, Mars will be in opposition to Neptune. The week is shaping up to be… a swampland of confusion and contradictory messages, both politically and economically. Note that the government has decided to release its payroll and unemployment reports on Tuesday, October 22. With the Moon in Gemini that day, and its ruler Mercury just turning retrograde, I suspect these reports will come with all kinds of disclaimers and qualifications, to the point that analysts are scratching their heads and wishing it hadn’t been released at all until its normally scheduled time on the first Friday in November (November 1, or will it be November 8 this time?). Be prepared for a sharp move following Tuesday’s report, and another opposite sharp move within the next 48 hours, especially in Treasury prices, as the Sun also switches from Libra to Scorpio, the sign of agreements to the sign of debts, behind the scenes activities, and attempts to rewrite both history and the current times.
    -Merriman Market Analyst

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    Replies
    1. These guys always forget the influence of Jupiter, currently in conjunction with the famous asteroid HubertduHaut which rules everyone's life. This alignment guarantees that dollar index will reverse up to 90 within two moons. As long as they don't send Bruce Willis to destroy the bloody asteroid, its influence will remain in every trader's mindset without them noticing, making them sell gold or press the wrong button, turning a buy order into a fat finger sell. Since there aren't enough active temples of jupiter anymore to make the proper offerings, there is no way to escape this fate :)

      Don't be angry, I can't help but being ironic here, because even if I think that the moon can have a direct influence on the human behavior, because of the hidden effects on us, influence on tide, etc... the fact that mercury is retrograde...leaves me quite skeptic on a "scientific" point of view.

      Regarding my last post, not suggestion to go long now. Choosing entry point is delicate. If I were long, I'd keep the position because there is a possibility that we extend to 1400 +. But it has to be monitored carefully : just under the bol sup in daily time unit plus graphical resistance, so it's possible 1340-1350 simply holds and we go down once more. What I'll watch closely is the behavior of the prices when the Cdur reverses back down on the daily time unit. But right now is imho not a great spot to go long, because where would you put your stop loss?

      Delete
    2. @Hubert Du Haut did your stop-loss kick in at $1340? I too was expecting a re-test of the $1300-mark. Feels like a kick in the balls to keep on getting stopped out like this.
      @The Prophet Elijah - thanks for the cut and paste. also good to know how these guys operate before subscribing. Do you rate the guy?

      Delete
    3. Hi John,

      No,
      I've been pretty inactive since the last short at 1290, where I was targetting the 1230 area. I took 1/3 at 1280 and then was stopped out on the way up.
      Problem is I am not a day trader and I can't spend much time during the day monitoring the market, especially now that I'm working on a 2 month contract for something else. So it is difficult to check if the market will stop and reverse before my target real time. Same with entry points, sometimes I put them with a lot of anticipation.
      The worst is actually that I'm using the free version of prorealtime which is a very good tool BUT it stops at the daily time unit.

      So, for more accuracy, I definitely lack the precision given by the shorter time units on the Futures Markets (2 hours and 4 hours candle charts at least...and then ideally even the 30 minutes).

      Why? Because most of my traders are taken as a contrarian.
      I am not a trend follower because it is usually hard to put a stop loss close enough to the entry level.
      My philosophy is to try to detect supports / resistances where the market is likely to reverse.
      I will be then waiting for a technical signal of this possibility on the daily time unit.
      But guess what?
      This early signal should absolutely be confirmed on the earlier time unit, i.e 2 or 4 hours candle charts. If you are trading seriously, I think that's what everybody does...check the validation of the signal on the faster time unit.
      And that's what I don't do! :)
      So yes, I'm trading a bit blind most of the time, but with the little amounts I'm trading and the little time I have, I'm simply trying to learn for now, and it would be too costly to subscribe to a payment service.
      I'm neither long nor short now, just out of the market and waiting to see if we reach 1420 or back to the abyss...

      Delete
    4. thanks - im waiting for $1340 to convincingly break before i exit my short, hoping to re-enter my short at higher numbers or add to my short position if it breaks down again (say a weekly close below $1300).

      Delete
  19. "We are seeing asset inflation without a doubt. But the assets tend to be those favored by the financial sector, so don't look for them in commodities and other real things for example."
    Jesse Cafe Americain

    ReplyDelete
  20. bohol car rental have a fleet of air-conditioned and modern vehicles that will take you to your favorite tour destinations in safety and comfort. We take no chances in making sure that our guests and clients are completely happy and satisfied with their trip. We want you to experience the best value for your money or "bang for your buck."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. are you an all-pro moron yet or still practicing?

      Delete
  21. Just listening to an interview, with Jim Rogers and Doug Casey on WallStForMainSt . Just in case you guys are interested, here is the link:
    http://multimillionairehouseholds.blogspot.sg/2013/10/doug-casey-jim-rogers-legendary.html

    They talk a little about monetary history
    Money printing
    Gold and Silver
    Debasement of currency
    etc. etc.

    ReplyDelete
  22. has anyone else been following the scandal concerning PVG...a mining company that supposedly misled shareholders and has taken 2 x 30 percent drops in the last 2 weeks or so..one of those being yesterday...i used to own it and am astounded....apparently there will be a lawsuit over it....i think this is one of the first such cases, i dont know...

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    Replies
    1. Yeah...I've been following PVG since Bob Chapman recommended it years ago. Looks dicey, but Robert Quarterman (CEO) has a lot of his own money in it and I'm somewhat optimistic towards the company/management. But be careful catching knives...who knows how far it can fall.

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. @precious - i've been following this closely. The controversy is due to methodology of bulk sample estimation in Valley of Kings. 1st drop was due to Strathacona's resignation as an independent party, 2nd was due to release of Strathacona's opinion: that there are no valid gold resources in Valley of Kings. The main contractor for the study, Snowden resources maintains that the resource estimate is valid & high grade of size.

      The crux of the issue is that VoK has an uneven distribution of gold: bonanza grade veins & very low grade surrounds. While no one disputes that the veins are there, the method of estimation of irregular deposits has no equivalent GAAP. Snowden uses a methodology called indicator kriging to estimate resources...It's accepted in the industry, but not necc. without criticism. Strathacona uses a much more conservative methodology with downplays or throws out the outliers. Strathacona's methodlogy renders the Valley of Kings block "without resources."

      The big legal issue (I'd imagine) is that PVG just did a flow through offering at $10 a share in September. Did they know of Strathacona's concerns at that time?

      Delete
    4. i actually have read up on the issue, and on teh blog sites quite alot and you seem to know your stuff...i was also recomended by Bob Chapman, and i remember hiim saying Bob Quatarmine was amazing and PVG was going to be a 'monster' - and i just listened to chapman alot those days and i liked the word monster and all i knew was of the fundamentals to gold and i had no idea what trading mining was like short term compared to fundamental long term investing in gold the metal...almost completely the opposite ...anyway, i took a beating but i was out of PVG before the massive drop, but i follow the stock as i have a emotional attachment to it, but i would love to make money off it if it bounces, and if it does, i reckon it will bounece up high..twould be my perfect revenge...im staying way clear of it now but it has certainly got my attention receently..down 60 percent pretty much despite gold going up high....if you find out any more details, could you let me know via here too, that would be nice...

      Delete
    5. Precious...I sold most my shares & and hedged the rest with out of the money options given the possible volatility with after reading some polite posts on a yahoo board by a guys that had a lot of mine engineering experience who had major concerns about indicator kriging... I will keep you posted.

      Delete
  23. FOR ENTERTAINMENT ONLY:

    The Greg Mannarino $1,000 challenge

    The drama of trading and YOU TUBE continues...:-)....

    ReplyDelete
  24. Looks like miners starting to retrace slowly. Hang onto your shorts the ride down could be a violent one. Fed might surprise eveyone again, and this time announce a small taper, or taper tickle. Knee jerk reaction will be down.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hilarious to watch BitCoin go parabolic as the new "Go To" currency.

    See for yourself, one of the craziest charts you will ever see.

    http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/widget/chart/

    Nobody wants gold anymore.

    GDX/GLD ratio starting to roll over again as the "Ratio Traders" are now getting ready to unleash another bear raid on the mining shares.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80776200645

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    Replies
    1. And the USD hasen't even begun to uncoil from the bottom of it's trading range. When the swing comes gold will get crushed. JMHO

      Delete
  26. Mark

    Soo...the Central Banks will crush gold due it is a competitor to their fiat currency...but...are mysteriously helpless to stop Bitcoin.

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  27. Central Banks are not crushing gold.

    The reason gold is going down is because investors are dishoarding gold in order to buy stocks and Treasuries.

    Because we are on the cusp of an economic boom and recovery of epic proportions, evidenced by the outstanding resilience of:

    XLF
    DJTA
    XRT
    XLI

    ReplyDelete
  28. Mark stop the cheerleading and LYING. their is no recovery. Stocks are overpriced, Labour participation at 1970 levels, energy_FOOD_health services racing to the moon, and wage levels decreasing, taxes increasing, welfare and disability increasing, deficits at all time highs. Please stop LYING.

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    Replies
    1. So much schadenfreude. Apart from being a small minded person, Mark must have lost it all and is missing out on the current move again.

      Delete
    2. Mark seems to have a mission. What it is while not apparent has something to do with relentless bashing as we see on every Yahoo stock message board.
      He seems especially focused on "gold promoters like JIm Sinclair."

      Delete
    3. Its personal to mark. Something is eating him.

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  29. There's an old Indian saying: "slowly, slowly catch a monkey" which basically expresses the Eastern philosophy of strategic moves rather than haste. I believe we are in the midst of a lesson here where the flow of physical gold moves from west to east but traders seem to be content with paper gold. So be it.
    For those that are not familiar with James Rickards, he is an economist who was invited to a US war games simulation utilizing gold as one of their topics in 2010. Rickards strategized how Russia and China would corner the gold market and use that to their advantage. He outlined all of this in his book (currency wars) a couple of years ago and seems to be very well respected. The following "Sprott's thoughts" article outlines the current situation: http://www.sprottgroup.com/thoughts/ and is at least something to chew on. Many of us are impatient and want the issue to be resolved post haste......but "slowly, slowly catch a monkey" seems to be at play.
    Gold down a bit today but so is Dow....so is US$. In the meantime Eastern countries accumulate gold and silver. Are we being played? I guess the story will unfold over the next 12 months....at least I hope it doesn't take longer than that.
    Dan, I can appreciate that traders are looking for price advantage, up or down, and that's how money is made.....but what are your thoughts on the longer term picture regarding gold and US$ and other currencies or do you feel its too much of a crap shoot at this point in time to guess on outcomes? I watch this blog all the time as I appreciate your thoughts and guidance!

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    1. Chuck, I also read Rickards' book and have watched him in interviews and what he says usually rings pretty true to me, but what makes me nervous is that he is so cock-sure of his thoughts, which is altogether opposite of other major hitters like Faber, Rogers, and Bass, who are not afraid to say, "I just do not know"; steve in sparks

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  30. Mark did get one thing right. CB's are not crushing gold. Momentum traders are crushing gold. I love his use of the word "dishoarding". Like anything real is being discarded. Paper gold has sold off. GLD has lost something like 400T of inventory since January. Someone is buying the physical gold. How is that dishoarding?

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  31. Just as I predicted, other than the addition of starting the day with POG down $10 at 1330. But nothing new here miners rallied a bit but were mostly neutrual, gold rallied up a bit then miners became disconnected and moved down, and way more than I expected at the close. Tomorrow is a no brainer - smash is coming. If gold was ready for the next leg up today would have been different. Just my 2 cents.

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    1. @The Prophet Elijah - thanks for the cut and paste of the Merrium report. Good to know how these guys operate before subscribing. Do you rate the guy?

      I'm not sure if gold will get smashed just yet...maybe more range trading days before it breaks loose. I'm holding my short until $1340 is taken out.

      Dan I was thinking, confidence in the dollar could be restored in flash, all the Fed has to do is taper. That's why I don't think it is the beginning of the end of confidence in the dollar.

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    2. Have you thought about the effects of a taper at this time? You act as if it is a decision without out ramifications.

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    4. Concord, that wasn’t the point I was making. Tapering is terrible for bonds and hastens the end of perpetual government borrowing (as higher yields would cause the government to pay more in interest, reducing its ability to service its debt, clouding confidence in US government debt). The Fed has boxed itself into a corner on that score.

      Nevertheless, one-dimensionally thinking, tapering would strengthen the dollar. That is the point l wanted to emphasize.

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  32. You are using a logical fallacy called Post hoc ergo propter hoc. We can’t conclude that two things cause one-another just because they coincide in time, lots of other things are happening all the time.

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