“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Thursday, August 1, 2013

July ISM Number Gooses the Market

Talk about a stark contrast from one day to the next! Yesterday we were all sifting through the inner parts of the FOMC statement and noting the dovish tone and the more downbeat assessment of the US economy from the Fed. Today the ISM  (Institute for Supply Management) number for the month of July hit the wires and boy howdy was it a shocker.

Activity for US manufactures took a big leap upward to 55.4 from June's 50.9 reading! That was the best reading since June 2011.

If that was not enough, the employment component of the data jumped to 54.4 from 48.7. That, coming on the heels of today's jobless claims number, which came in at 326,000 versus an expected 345,000 got the attention of traders in a big hurry. With that, stocks were off to the races, bonds plummeted and the Dollar soared against all of the majors.

Guess what, gold barely moved! I find that rather remarkable considering the fact that we had a HUGE MOVE UP in the Dollar based on talk that the TAPERING was back on. Normally, with tapering talk back on, a surging Dollar, rising interest rates, etc. gold could have been expected to get knocked for a loop. It is holding steady as I type these comments and is oscillating on both sides of the unchanged level.

The metal had a strong move overnight as yesterday's dovish FOMC put the kibosh on the gold bears and had them second guessing whether or not they should aggressively sell in the face of such a dovish statement. However, it did run out of buyers up near $1330 and then retreated back down towards $1308 where once again, just like it has been doing of late, buyers showed up in a big way.

So here we are back near the bottom of the price range again and that means one thing from a technical aspect - the support zone I noted on yesterday's chart is intact but it MUST HOLD to prevent a drop to $1300. If that gives way, gold will move towards $1280.

Can you notice how the bears are selling up against that downtrending 50 day moving average? Can you also see how stubborn this overhead level of chart resistance is?


What is weighing on gold today, in spite of its strength, is the fact that the miners are moving lower once again. This is making some longs nervous because the shares seem to have gone back to leading bullion whether it is higher or lower of late.


Let me comment here also a bit further on the backwardation thing - I mentioned that I would keep us posted if the delivery month contract, August, were to move to a premium over the next month contract, which for all practical purposes is the October. Currently, as of this hour, the BIDS for August are running about $0.40 premium to the bids for October and are actually on a par with the December. They are also a mere $1.00 discount to the February 2014 gold contract. NOW, we have the beginnings of a true backwardation structure on the futures board that we have not previously had. It is not completely there yet but for today, it certainly is moving that way.

Now whether or not this translates to a higher price is uncertain. So far, as mentioned above, even with the August contract moving out to a slight premium to the October, gold is failing at overhead chart resistance.  It has not broken down technically but it also has not broken out to the upside either.

I have written repeatedly here that PRICE ACTION is the ultimate arbiter of whether or not a development is bullish or bearish. Gold thus needs to prove itself.

Let me give you an example using corn... just today the BASIS for cash corn in Cedar Rapids, Iowa is a whopping + $1.20. That is huge! It means that old crop corn in that location is fetching $1.20 more than the nearby September futures contract which is currently trading at $4.87 as I type this. Cash buyers of corn at that particular elevator are therefore willing to pay, as of today, $6.07 for a bushel of corn when all they have to do is to wait a month and they could get it for $4.87! Someone must need it quite badly.

However, here is the point, while the basis is positive the corn chart is awful....
the price is sinking lower, the basis is positive. In other words, a FUTURES TRADER who moved to buy corn based SOLELY on the positive basis, would have ended up losing a huge amount of money, not to mention the fact of lost profit potentials from using the price action to dictate a short position instead.




I understand that corn is not the same as gold mainly because we have TWO different crop years we are discussing right now and are trading off of in the futures markets, but the main point that I am trying to make, AS A TRADER, is that PRICE ACTION DICTATES whether or not any event has significance to market participants. Never forget this concept if you are to be successful TRADING.

The delivery process for the second day in August gold futures was relatively quiet compared to the large issues from Deutchse yesterday. Again, Morgan was a large stopper with the house taking the bulks of the sales while ABN AMRO was the large issuer. Not much to take away from this right now. We'll keep an eye on it as the delivery process unfolds.

Incidentally, let me take a bit of time to bring up a topic that some might find a bit odd but I feel needs to be addressed in a more public manner. It concerns some of the things being said about King World News here among posters at my site.

First of all, Eric King and his lovely wife Lizz are personal friends of mine. They spend long hours working to bring us interviews from some very smart people many of whom share the same economic world view that I do. While I may not always agree 100% with some of their views, my long term view on where the US is eventually heading is the same as the majority of the guests that appear there.

It needs to be kept in mind - I write primarily as a TRADER. that is vastly different than someone who has an INVESTOR mindset. Traders by nature have to be more short-term oriented if they are to survive in these leveraged markets. An investor can take a longer term approach and not be as concerned about the ups and downs and vagaries of a sector that they have invested money into if they have done their homework or due diligence and are settled in their convictions. Nor do they generally have the exposure to the kinds of leverage that we traders must take on.

What this translates to in real life is that a trader can have a longer term, fundamentally based view of a market while simultaneously understanding that same market can be moving in the opposite direction of that long term view. During such times, prudence dictates that one go with the flow of the money in order to be successful. That means one can be short term or even intermediate term bearish while maintaining a long term bullish view. The opposite is also true - a market can be moving higher while the long term fundamentals suggest it is heading lower.

I know this seems to confuse some who read this site but as I have often said, I wear TWO HATS over here - one of a TRADER and the other of an INVESTOR.

That being said, KWN is not and never has claimed to be a "Trader's Website". It is more of a big picture view of things and thus tends to have a longer term perspective on the precious metals. There are some guests there, myself included, who tend to focus more on the technical aspects of the gold and/or silver markets on a weekly basis and analyze price action accordingly. That means there are times when I am going to be in a bearish posture while some of the other guests are going to be bullish. Please understand this.

So I am asking those who post here to please keep this in mind and to cease from making any derogatory comments about the network or its guests. I personally have no problems if OPINIONS are debated or questioned as there is always two sides to any markets, bull and bear, but I do have a major problem with insulting someone's character or denigrating them personally because of a difference of market opinion. That honestly serves no useful purpose.

My purpose in spending time writing at this website and doing interviews over at KWN, is to try to teach others some of the things I have learned over a lifetime now of trading so that they can make their own INFORMED decisions as to what they want to do with their money. You know the old saying: "Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish and feed him for a lifetime."

For so doing that, some of the personal emails I have received in private of late are downright vile merely because I have chosen to differ from some others who are prominent among the gold community.

Look, we are all human and we are all going to be wrong from time to time. That should not come as a news flash to any decent individual who is honest with themselves and others. If any of us were omniscient, he or she would have more money that Bill Gates. I would like to be able to boast that I have never had a losing trade. In my dreams only is such a thing true. The idea is not to be 100% perfect; it is rather to be right MORE OFTEN that you are wrong. If you can do that, and do it on a consistent basis, you can make money as a trader and as an investor because even investors with long term horizons must deal with unforeseen events or circumstances that alter the fundamentals behind the assumptions that moved them to invest accordingly in the first place.

Humility is a grace/virtue that all of us, myself included, would do well to pursue as we remember our own foibles and weaknesses. That does not mean we cannot be passionate about our beliefs nor go after falsehood or error; but unless we have firsthand evidence, that is plain to all thinking folks with common sense, that someone is corrupt, attacking them personally and denigrating their character merely because they have a different opinion on a market is not something that any of us should be in the business of doing.

So posters here - please keep this in mind as I am going to try to be a bit tougher on things if I see them getting out of hand. Exchange of ideas and views is welcome, not character attacks....







35 comments:

  1. Excellent post Dan. Difficult in practice and something that we should pursue as when we point a finger there are 4 pointing back at us. We should pursue our judgement against the "unstained" and the one who was born of a virgin. It is because of our humanity we all fall short. Slowly the process will unravel and the truth will eventually manifest itself. When that occurs and due to the simple laws of supply and demand, Mr.King, Mr. Sinclair, and others will be proven correct. In the meantime let the continued short term madness heighten. The debt clock is another "sign" of the manipulation and deceit of the powerful few. Their goals are different than those who are being shackled.

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  2. yeha good post....i feel like gold is making lower highs and it does feel weaker...if tomorrow's jobs news is positive for overall economy/market and thus negative for gold, i easily expect 1308 and 1300 to be breached and off we go to the 1280 area..id be happy to buy there and hold for a while, i have a feeling that this good news is going to run out of manipulation and the Fed wil end up increasing QE...cos the talk of not tapering or continuing QE is not really producing the high it used to...biger doses needed and you cann tell the Feds scared of risiing treasury yields and falling stock market..so yeah, id love to buy and hold miners if/when they announce more QE....could coincide with a new chairmen...anywway, speculation aside, good post, gold looks weaker, lets see what data brings tmrw...

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  3. Sounds like a plan. Seems MSM is down to two candidates......................
    Eternal Dove(s) Summers and Yellen
    Wow is all I can say.

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  4. yeah i sitll think itll be yellen, despite the recent media talk about summers still being a worthy candaidte...you get propaganda browny points for appointing a lady....nobody cares about merit these days, but summers isnt much better anyway...im sure theres a way of betting on who will be appointed...

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  5. Dan, your comments about your views vs. some of the others on KWN make complete sense to me. For what it's worth, I think you run the classiest act of any blogger in the PM/commodities space. And Eric's decision to have you on weekly increases KWN's credibility in a big way. Thanks for being willing to share your considerable knowledge with all of us who read/listen.

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  6. “It is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err.”

    “I look only to the good qualities of men. Not being faultless myself, I won’t presume to probe into the faults of others.”

    - Gandhi.

    So yes, some famous investors didn't see such a correction. Some people are angry with them because they are in a loss. Especially, they are afraid because they don't know any more where will be the bottom and how much more they may lose.
    The safe haven adventure became a short-term nightmare full of fear.

    With a smile, this even more famous philosopher :
    "Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering".
    - Yoda :)

    It is easy to condemn those who didn't warn about the possibility of a strong short-term correction after this correction happened. Say there were many signs such as 12 years of bull market, etc... but suppose that the correction didn't happen? Then those same would be angry with themselves to have missed the boat, or angry with those who warned for being careful.
    It's all about probabilities, not certainties.
    And it's all about which time horizon is yours.

    It is certainly a very hard time for the newcomers in gold who bought a lot in the 1600-1800 area and didn't think the ticket would include this kind of ride. They focus on the price drop. Don't forget that you wisely diversified in a time of potential trouble. Look at Cyprus. If Cyprus happens this weekend, or next weekend, will you be happy to have bought some gold, be it at 1800 $? Most of those experts at KWN are reminding two important things :
    - one must own some physical gold to protect against a systemic risk.
    - the long-term trend of gold is up.

    At the moment, I don't see a reason to say that they were wrong. 1200 is a 62% retracement of the second wave up from 750 to 1950. It may look impressive, but it happens a lot in a bullish trend.
    What is done is done.
    The bad thing is that you bought near the top and right now, if you had to sell, you'd lose some cash.
    The good thing is that you diversified and bought yourself real physical gold, stored or allocated and outside the banking system. If a panic occurs, this same physical gold will be very hard to find, even in small quantities.
    It's done. So don't think about it anymore, don't get bitter about the past, because maybe the near future will finally prove you right.
    I would definitely not sleep in peace if I had not bought some real phyz by now. Would you? We live in manipulated markets. It's not only about short-term price anymore. It's about protection. Protecting some of your wealth with something which can not be debased / diluted / disappear.
    Consider that gold prices could drop down towards 1000 $.
    If the idea seems totally unbearable to you, then sell just a bit now, and sit tight with the rest of it. If you accept the idea, then sleep on it and don't bother about the price variation anymore.

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    Replies
    1. Brilliant quotes, Hubert Du Haut! Especially from, Yoda's :)

      In regards to..."It's all about probabilities, not certainties", it just seems irresponsible for somebody who has garnered a substantial community of gold investors/traders such as Mr Sinclair to state things in a manner of "certainty" as oppose to "probability" such as "gold is not going below 1520" or "low is in..." etc. For somebody who is as intelligent and wise as him, why wouldn't he think about the possible consequences of many of his followers potentially losing their hard earned money if they traded/invested according to his call.

      *Having said this, I do appreciate his intention to help and serve.

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    2. Hubert du Haut;

      Wise words, spoken, have you....

      As Jim said, I love the quotes especially Yoda's!

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    3. Nice to see I'm not the only fan of the little green jedi :) I'll write my next TA accordingly :)
      Jim, I certainly don't know Sinclair enough to answer for him, so I'm only "reacting" here to your comment in itself, and express only an opinion and a personal feeling.
      As I started in the "quotes" attitude :
      “That was one of the things that worried me – to be raised to the position of a semi-god – because then you are no longer a human being. I wanted to be known as Mandela, a man with weaknesses, some of which are fundamental, and a man who is committed.”
      - Nelson Mandela
      I think Sinclair is a human being, with his strength and weaknesses. People came to expect so much from him (see your comment : "For somebody who is as intelligent and wise as him..." and Mandela's fears) that it requires quite a temper to put himself at risk and on the line as he does. I'm sure that for each person thanking him for his help, he also receives a number of quite different mails and other stuff from people who blame him to have called a bottom, for example. He sure has the temper, I only wish him to keep his good health, good spirit together and his eye as well.
      Personally, I feel a deep respect for someone who :
      - put himself on the line with his real name and reputation, every day.
      - doesn't protect himself with "maybe's" but commits himself and his conviction in the battle, and assumes the risk and conséquences of being wrong.
      So I think that Sinclair is a little bit in Mandela's situation in his category. They made him a semi-god. I say they because I'm not sure he asked for the titles such as "Mr Gold" and all those high expectations of him always doing the right thing.
      And I think that, as a result, some people started to rely too much on him and him alone, expected him to be perfect and got very disappointed when proved wrong.
      Still expressing my only opinion here, not knowing Sinclair, I also have the feeling that he is a brilliant :
      - gold expert
      - leader and manager
      - fighter and entrepreneur
      and that he can foresee what's going to happen many years in advance better than many other people.
      This being said, you wrote " why wouldn't he think about the possible consequences of many of his followers potentially losing their hard earned money if they traded/invested according to his call"
      Why don't you give him the credit to think that he did think about it a lot?
      Maybe he was convinced near 90% that 1520 would not break. I was as well, actually. Only after it broke, did I protect my positions (1539). But before, I was honestly buying the dips and favoring the odds of a bottom in the 1550 $ area.

      Delete
    4. Sinclair took responsibility for his "wrong call" the day after via a letter on his blog.
      One may blame him for his temper (he is quite straightforward :) but to me it's rather a quality), or for his communication which sounds a bit too much "certain" vs "probable".
      Maybe his real purpose is first and foremost to Wake up all of those who didn't buy gold yet.
      Maybe the price variations are a secondary concern to him.
      And then what would you do?
      Would you shout and use "certainty" messages to try and convince people that they should buy gold now?
      Or would you stick on the "may be, might, someday, if" approach, and risk convincing much less people?
      Sinclair's core message is imho to buy physical, long-term, unleveraged gold, now GOTS, in order to avoid pure and simple confiscation. Short-term price variations should be endured as a necessary evil. So as an expert, and thinking that there is a very good chance that the bottom is in, with this goal in mind, would you use "maybe"?
      I think he thought about it and the conséquences.
      Don't judge the man on this alone and forget all the other aspects.
      On his opinion, his followers didn't "lose their hard earned money" unless they sold their gold back at a lower price. That's not his call and conviction. His conviction is that you'll soon see gold prices go through the roof, and this correction is a short-term impediment to be endured. Followers bought gold. It's a long term commitment. Sinclair looks like a general to me. He tries to rally his troops because he sees a big storm coming. He can't be right all the time, for everything. He will not communicate to you with "maybe", he will write you about his deep convictions. Take the man as he is. Put yourself in his place one second and you'll realize the pressure of the responsibility he took for his "followers".
      To all the "followers" (who should NOT be followers but think by themselves), and are in pain with their gold shares and gold coins, bars, and bathrooms for the richest lol, one last quote from the same Mandela :
      “I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it. The brave man is not he who does not feel afraid, but he who conquers that fear.”
      If you understand the meaning of Sinclair's warning, then the current price drops should be of no real consequence to you : hold on to your gold as an insurance. Only add to Sinclair's site that gold prices may also drop further. That's the price to pay for this insurance. Can never be certain if a correction will occur. But if instead prices had continued to raise just as during the last 11 years, you would have been upset not to have bought gold instead.

      Delete
    5. P.S : and to be clear about what I did personnally : I took into consideration Sinclair's warning by partially "GOTS" and buying gold.
      Partially because I'm not going to convert all my wealth into a single unique asset, and it's also my choice.
      Diversify is also an interesting strategy, even if the return rate is lower.
      Maybe Sinclair is selling his cars to buy more gold, and is totally convinced that a global bail-in will occur. I'm not him, I can't feel convinced just if I knew for myself because I medidated it through nights and nights and worked 25 years in the gold business.
      So I partially bought some phyz, but I won't blame him for my decision.
      I just think that it's reasonable for me.
      After all, he also doesn't only own gold. He owns his own company, a few properties, a james bond car/boat, etc... so I guess one should do the same (especially build his own james bond car/boat :)).
      Protect some of one's wealth, leave some of it "in the system" but assume that this part has some chance to be lost.
      It doesn't mean it will 100% sure happen.
      It's a single responsibility to decide how much "GOTS" one should do for himself.
      Most important imho is not to keep all your eggs in the system, and keep some wealth outside of it in order to "survive" several months / years if the worst happens.

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    6. Hubert,

      Are you sure you are French :) ? Great analysis on Sinclair. I think his hobby farm idea is brilliant. Elimination of counter-party risk by having a little cash and becoming your own central bank.

      I have lost a ton because I really thought he knew the timing, but I was just learning about gold and silver at the time. i'm VERY pleased that I got physical holdings, and don't care if Gold goes to $100, or silver heads to $5... I'll buy more for the next Black Swan.

      Nate

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  7. I'm retired with 99% of my nest egg in land and PM's. I fact I'm running in overdraft rather than sell any PM's.

    I view PM's as insurance. Daily I read Dan, ZH, KWN, Ed at Gold Core, Jim and a few others and value them all equally.

    I started buying PM's in April '11 and continued to buy up until Sept '12 when I ran out of cash. I would still be buying now otherwise. The fundamental reasons to hold PM's hasn't changed since 2007 and, as far as I'm concerned, get stronger and stronger every month. It's thanks to the writings of these good folk that I can sleep at night with my PM holdings currently down 45% in $ terms.

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  8. over in europe its midnight atm, and before i doze off, checking out ze chinese and looks like gold is indeed dropping to test the 1300 level...i wonder what happens as i sleep

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  9. Me thinks gold will retrace back up tomorrow when people stay awake to see how low it goes. Couple weeks from now comes volilatility and lower pog with higher vix. Jmo.

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  10. Hi Dan

    I am glad that you pointed out some important facts about KWN. All of the people he interviews(including yourself) are far more knowledgable and successful than I ever hope to be.
    I also openly confess that I have posted some critical remarks about some of the KWN interviews, for this I sincerely apologize.
    I am an investor, not a trader. The last couple of years have not been easy for us gold/commodity investors. Sometimes lashing out at those who are trying to help just happens out of fear and frustration.
    Once again Dan, please accept my apologies.

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    1. Dean;

      thanks for writing such a gracious post. I sincerely appreciate your comments!

      I indeed understand the sense of frustration of many who have been holding gold mining shares only to see them implode while the rest of the stock market powers merrily upward, all in the face of Fed policies that would normally be considered friendly to gold and anything gold related.

      It is indeed frustrating, as one of the frequent posters here named Mark writes so well, to see the consumer stocks soaring higher while the gold miners drop into the tank. Some might see these things only in light of the price charts but I understand that each of those little lines on the chart, each of those bars, or candles, represents the net worth of many who own them.

      That is what I am trying to do however - fill a void perhaps and help folks who want to more actively manage their portfolio of shares by teaching some aspects of technical analysis so that they are in a better position to manage those holdings and use the chart patterns as gauges when to buy or sell.

      I should note as an encouragement at this point, that while the news about Barrick's losses is coming out, the stock itself is holding relatively stable. It could be that the market has already discounted all the bad news about ABX and factored it into the price. If Barrick has indeed bottomed out just below $14 then maybe the entire sector has some hopes that the carnage is over. We will have to wait and see how the metal itself holds up as we move further in the year and it has a chance to react to the various economic data releases such as the payrolls report, etc.

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  11. Dan my brother and many others. You all are doing a good job. Do not stop what you are doing. Even though I like many on this and other board are losing money. I and many others still believe that PM is the only hedge against uncertainty while the casino is rigged. I hold physical and mining stocks any day. Keep the faith brother and all who believe that those who do good will do it in the light and those who do evil will do it in darkness because they are afraid to show what they do because if they do they will be exposed.

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  12. Read the Word of God in Revelation about the collapse of Babylon our financial system of collapse and God of wrath waiting for to be unfold and how other nations flee from her and how all the wealth disappeared. So, be warn what we have is temporary. Let your mind be focus on things of above and no moth and rust can touch it and you will have peace of mind.

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    1. This is a side of this which most don't want to address. Instead of worrying so much about their wealth, one needs to worry about his soul! Listen to the word of God:

      1Jn 2:15 Love not the world, neither the things that are in the world. If any man love the world, the love of the Father is not in him.
      1Jn 2:16 For all that is in the world, the lust of the flesh, and the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life, is not of the Father, but is of the world.
      1Jn 2:17 And the world passeth away, and the lust thereof: but he that doeth the will of God abideth for ever.
      Mat_6:24 No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve God and mammon.

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  13. I read 1327 on this blog as an important support.
    It's the first fibo retracement of the 1805-1175 move.
    It's only a hunch, but I'm rather taking into consideration the 1940-1175 move and its retracements, becasue 1327 didn't appear to be noticeable on the daily time unit. And then the first fibo would be at 1360 $.

    Then another hunch makes me itch : we've reached 1348 $, but we didn't reach 1360 $; which validâtes and reinforces the significance of the fibo retracements of the 750-1950 upwards move.
    Might mean that the psychology is still bearish and in the mere retracements of a bearish wave. I would have liked to see these 12 $ extra miles on the uptrend.
    Now gold broke its short-term upwards support and its daily macd 9 20 7 is likely to cross its signal (bearish).
    It's summer.
    There are still plenty of stocks in Comex as a whole and other ETFs.
    The war is not over, and I would not get too optimistic about the price action. On the contrary, I'd prepare psychologically for a possible re-test of the 1200 $.
    This downward spiral might end only when most of the long-term bulls get despaired, panic and throw in the towel.
    The 1160 $ support zone may very well be tested again in august or september. Imho, bulls should be careful until 1350 is behind us.


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    1. "1327 on this blog", I should mention in the comments sections.

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  14. Good Morning All...Well the world is now the exact opposite as it was in the last 2 years. Gold is now getting smashed overnight and during the day it rises from the ashes. I am starting to grow weary. I am not done but weary. Does anyone on this site have a clue as too why the turnaround?

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    Replies
    1. Yes,

      If you are smart, can analyze things, and can see the truth for what it is, the powers that be, MUST make you look like a fool. That is my conclusion to this madness.

      Nate

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    2. Sad when the powers that be have to change data, lie to the people to continue their control, make up new data and backdate it, disallow real information. Governments will never change and rather than be truthful, they must lie to keep control and maintain their power. This is ROME. So sad.

      Delete
  15. Never mind, reality hit, jobs number. I really believe that until both the Comex goes bust, 10 YR goes over 300, AND blood starts to run in the streets due to the misinformation on the labor participation rate, they will keep gold in check. It is a game to them. Report this, report that. What they cannot change is the international demand for T's (except large purchasing driving down the yield) which become manipulated. But, when blood spills in the street due to the REAL unemployment of Americans, then, and only then will Gold explode. Any thoughts?

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  16. Nice pop back up in gold indeed. Im with Armstrong who sees volatility in the week after 7 aug: 12 to 16 aug could be the retests of the lows. Keep an eye on the VIX coming weeks. Sure looks like it will take another 12-18 months before the bull resumes.

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  17. Overnight they saw the 10 year and knew that they walk a perilous plank, and had to come off that strong dollar. So they printed a less than stellar jobs number. I wonder if they sit around and mull over the prints. The days of Rome are starting to get very close. Yes the summer may give them this relief, but the debt fight is near, Jack Lew will have his hands full, I wonder what the real debt is. Right now the people do not have a clue.

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  18. ok so obviously gold went lower cos it was drifting that way trend-wise, but since the data, it comes back up, but i would say its peak at the moment still correlates with the overall trend of continuing lower...the day has just begun but im just wondering that despite the job and inflation numbers, does it look like gold is still going to test lower levels...

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  19. Hi Dan, have you heard this one? "Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish and feed him for a lifetime. Teach a man how to fish and sell it on the market for a profit and he can feed himself and his family for a lifetime and mabye save some too!

    Also I was wondering, I hear a lot of talk that says, the PM market drops drastically yet people are buying lots! -As if that is a odd thing?? Seems if there is a sale on, people buy! Is there any data that you could show on a chart that would show any difference concerning this comparing the last bull market to this one?

    thanks,
    derry

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  20. Well, looks like nothing has changed.

    New highs in the Russell 2000 and virtually all consumer-oriented sectors such as XRT.

    Virtually every dip in stocks being bought with the utmost ferocity, but no interest in gold or the gold shares.

    Anybody who has left their cash safely encased inside their Charles Schwab or E-Trade accounts fully invested in Fed-approved consumer stocks is sitting pretty, and racking up more profits daily.

    I see no sign of any "Endgame", as it appears the the markets are pricing in and discounting a huge economic boom going forward, with minimal inflation at best.

    Imagine the glory which will be heaped upon Bernanke in 2 years after the Dow crosses 18,000 and unemployment is back down to 5%.

    Even though another Fed Chair will be at the helm, none of the candidates will dare to alter the most successful, wealth creating Fed Policy of all time.

    Maybe Yellen will get impatient and crank up QE from $85 billion to $185 billion to get more jobs going in the housing sector.

    Perhaps then, gold can one day trade over $1,500 again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Id LOL if it werent so sad.

      There will be consequences.

      Delete
  21. I am with you Jasper, Ben is not making any friends, he is definitely creating an "us versus them" mentality" similar to our present day Dictator. In the end, that in itself will create more despair and civil unrest than he can imagine. The banks are clearly being catered to. If I was a Jamie Dimon (I am richer than you), or a Blanfein (we are doing Gods work), I would have a full squadron of security not only looking over my shoulder, but around corners, off in the distance as well as a host of food tasters for my expensive wines, champagnes, Kobe steak, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  22. @Hubert DuHaut:
    Hello to you and all,
    I would like to ask about the upwards move "750-1950" you are mentioning.
    I am using an XAU chart, which shows on a weekly scale:

    LOW 682,66 (20.Oct2008) - HIGH 1921,36 (5.Sep2011).
    Is is that move you are referring to?
    If yes, could you comment the difference in our figures.
    If not, could you please give the dates of your pattern.

    (Do you maybe use a continuous futures-chart, or a chart that accumulates the basis back into the past?)
    Best regards and compliments for your mkt analysis.
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello Alex,
      I'm using a famous platform which gives it services for free down to the daily unit.
      On their chart of gold Futures, 20 october 2008 gives a low at 749.40.
      The top is made at 1947 on 5th september (weekly candles).
      That's the tool I'm using for my charts.
      If I watch their XAU chart, indeed the low is then 681.9 ( reached 24/10 on daily chart) and top is 1921.14 (06 sept 2011).
      And you are totally right, on my platform the readings for futures are 752.40 for the lows on 24/10/2008.
      The lows being reached on 23/10 at 749 as mentionned.
      Strange.
      I'm not specialist enough to explain the discrepancy.
      A bug of the platform on my chart?
      Does anyone have other readings for 24 oct 2008 on the Futures Chart? Thanks in advance,

      Delete

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