“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput


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Monday, August 5, 2013

Gold Chart

Gold was under pressure throughout the entirety of the regular trading session on Monday flirting with psychological support at the $1300 level before managing to push back above it and close out the pit session above it.

As trade has moved into Asia this evening, the market is coming under pressure once again and has now fallen below $1300 moving as low at $1288 before managing a wee bit of a bounce. The market simply looks heavy as it is now backing down to the bottom of its range.

Remember, the $1280 level is where it was jammed lower last week just prior to the release of the payrolls number on Friday. If the market does not rebound back, it will move towards $1260.

Weakness in the mining sector continues to undermine the metal. Also, the grains are weaker undercutting the inflation from the food sector side of things.

25 comments:

  1. Honestly,

    It just doesn't look good (for bulls, I have a bias, because I'm always a bull on gold :))

    First, we didn't manage to re-conquer the previous support which is now resistance around the 1340 $ area.
    Second, we are actually stalling again, and the median of Andew's fork, plus the top of downtrend channel, the ma50, etc... are acting as effective resistance.
    Third, were are the bloody supports for bulls? The ma20 is about to be broken, and on a 2-day chart, it never turned up.
    Fourth, prices stopped at bloody 1348 $ precisely, not 1360. Remember my "hunch" about what it means in terms of Fibonacci retracements prevailing? We are still in the bounce up and down of the 750-1940 upwards move (I still can't explain the difference of lows between XAU (680) and Futures (749) in my Platform in june 2008, if someone can explain...), which means that the psychology is still in a bear trend and mere upwards corrections towards the nearest résistances.
    Fifth, the daily MACD 9 20 7 crossed its signal...bearish signal.
    Sixth, we have major bearish divergences on the daily chart between prices and indicators such as MACD, RSI, etc... indicating once more that prices are WEAK and that the trend is DOWN.

    CONCLUSION :( : I deeply wish it was otherwise, but T.A is not about wishes nor emotions, and there is a real possibility that gold will meet 1200 $ again, and another real possibility that gold will actually test the important 1160 $ support zone area (to me the last support in this area), and if it fails, I must also consider the possibility of gold reaching out for the 78% fibo retracement at 1034 $.

    We are not there yet, but that is why :
    1) I will not buy middle long term before 1350 is broken, unless a real strong support zone is confirmed somewhere down.
    2) if I decided to stay long with my paper money, I'd make hell sure I'm not leveraged now and that psychologically, I can assume a new price drop towards 1000 $. Because I wouldn't want to be the one who sells at the lowest price because he is fed up and throws in the towel at the worst time.

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  2. after about a year of directly suffering the gold miners plunge, i too have begun to accept that daily technical analysis should trump long term investor bias...and so i withdrew from the market last week after i thought it was too hard to trade the series of macro news..i think gold might drop to test 1280 atleast, and thus probably lower cos it had stalled in strenght in the loyer 1300s...and i think this happened twice before in the last few months, and after stalling from a 100 dollar rise, it dropped heeeavy....so i agree with Huberts comments...MACD, RSI, short and medium term trend..even macro news (for now)...and i think in a few weeks, gold will resume the slow long march cos long terms you cannot argue with economic law, especially if taper does not happen/printing increases...i also have this arab mate who i got into gold and he was telling me it was gna go doyn when we were in the 1700s and i was giving him the austrian school of economics speech etc...tho he now too is a bug, he tells me what the local hedge/bullion/jewellery peeps are predicting and they also said it would test a new low soon before going up...i know lots of people have predictions but whoever he has been talking to have quit ea good track record so thought i may as well state it...we will see..gold is certainly not looking as bullish as a few weeks/days ago.

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  3. I would say the mother of all storms is brewing. Treasury yields starting to disobey. Stocks topping and deficits around the world still climbing. War is in the air. Deflation is winning the battle against the CB's. Pensions in some areas (mostly progressive munis). Cash is once again KING. Short banks of all TYPES as demand for loans is still non existent. No way yield chasing in a market already killed will work regardless of what MW and Mark try to sell you. Financials will roll over, foreclosures will accelerate. It looks like once again "THE BIG SHORT" will prevail. Good luck all.

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  4. Another Great READ...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-06/guest-post-case-fed-tapering-sooner-rather-later

    Highlights The ARE engineering a mini Crash/Correction in order to avoid the End Game.

    The Fed has a dual mandate, and no, it's not stable prices and employment. The Fed's real dual mandate is:

    1) Preserve and protect the banking sector's power and share of the national income

    2) Preserve and protect the Fed's political and institutional power.

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  5. Nenner's cycle system predicted PMs to temporariliy top out in mid-july (they did).. followed by a downtrend into aug/sept (they are doing)... and likely finding a bottom at that point.

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    Replies
    1. Nenner has been very accurate. When we failed to get over 1350 he said we had not bottomed. That was awhile ago. I wish I had listened. Even with the dollar down the miners are pulling gold with it and how can it get any better for the miners anytime soon.

      Delete
    2. Gud,

      Check his interviews on youtube and you will find out he has been wrong actually. He said gold will bottom according to his cycles in April 13 then rise until 2018. Gold kept going down. Then he said it will bottom in May 13. It kept going down. Then June 13, then July 13...Aug 13. Eventually he will get it right I'm certain of that! Haha and sure wnough he will claim he called the bottom ;-)
      Dont believe me? Go watch his youtube interviews....

      Delete
    3. I don't follow Nenner closely, but he did give a buy signal at 1270. When gold failed to get to 1350 or so he said that the bottom was not in. I think it was about three weeks ago. Nobody knows anything right now, gold loss of momentum is what concerns here. Dan said the miners were dragging it down and once again I think he is right.

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  6. I'm getting battle worn and hardened--like having fought in Italy and now moving on to Nazi Germany. Seven straight down days in the HUI is nothing to me now. I'm not buying yet, but certainly not selling what I have. A test or break of the low in gold and It will be my final swoop in to buy physical / coins. VIX at all time lows, nothing could go wrong, right?

    A few things that may or many not be meaningful--while the HUI is only 7% or so off its lows, some of the quality mining issues are doing much better: RGLD & FNV are closer to 20% above their lows. It seems that DUST is getting a bit worn out as well. So if it's 3X negative miners with a big interest in the trash of the mining world, it should be, what 20% off its highs, rather than down 40%... And what the heck is going on, now the former dog of the mining world, Kinross, gets an upgrade & its price target raised.




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  7. the price actions says down it will go to production costs. after the write offs and complacency the gold miners possessed, gold will bottom with a sub-1,000 print, and settle in the 1,000 range. gold trades with great patterns. my 1285 shorts gave me $20 scalps since yesterday. gold is an easy trade around the hundred number levels. it gets more dicey as it approaches lower parts. charts help, but 24-hour watch of price action is more effective.

    Three tiers of trades. Full short hedge since 1632. day trade taken out at 1285. Intermediate, 1260. all making tons of money. gold is great at any price. i take my profits, after my sizeable tax payments, and plow it right back into gold. By the time the dust settles, I hope to have doubled my gold holdings by weight.

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    Replies
    1. You are smart. What if you were stupid enough to hold the miners? I was. That is the question to sell these gold shares as they seem headed to the 2009 lows.

      Delete
  8. Concord,
    If you review the charts from 2009, the miners bottomed and made an upswing prior to stocks. As Dan has pointed out, no history repeats itself, and not really sure but it appears to me that it will again bottom. Just sitting on a lot of MM and cash kinda waiting, with 10% in Miners and they are not hurting me too much at present. The whole world has a serious problem right now. I am interested in seeing how the wonderful Ben and his boys are going to stop the bleeding. Obviously the stock market is being supported. At some point this thing has to stop, My gut tells me it will not go back to 1175, but may breach 1200 briefly. My small portfolio mimicks the GDX and I do not believe that will go to the 22.22 bottom again. That is my bet, if it gets there, I am buying again. At that point I will go from 10% to 25% of my allotment. May have to hold for 6 months.

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  9. my simple thoughts are that the last man standing is U.S. stks and I am neutral and looking to put my selling shoes on; energies are finished, we know big crops get bigger and the only thing worth owning in a full blown puke are bonds and the $. if I am right and energies lead everything down now, the lows in pm are not in and if there is indeed another dump, there is your bottom, but it may take years and years to make anything on the long side, tired bull arguments withstanding; steve in sparks

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  10. White Wolf,
    The fact that you are not stuck holding a lot of mining shares like I am speaks to your clear view. I do see the sky falling with the miners but having been holding them for so long it clouds your thinking. That said a fall in GDX to 14 or so is possible. Like a fighter on the ropes the shorts pound the miners which is the body and once they drop their hands the head being the gold price they attack that.

    I hope you are right of course and wish I had not held the miners. Fred Hickey thinks the miners are the best value around and has bought consistently through this drop. Hope you are both right.

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  11. Concord
    Eventually the CB's around the world will lose control as will JPM and the Comex. A no brainer. Some of the miners will get bought and maybe just the assets so that is very tricky. I hope you are not holding the wrong ones. That is the point of this. They want a consolidation and will drive some of these guys out of business. They (banks) own their credit lines, their equipment lines, and they control the sales price of their product. So it is a battle, who loses control first. JPM, HSBC, Brinks, and when they cannot deliver or the miners have to capitulate and sell. The banks may even take an equity position in order to allow expansion. Perfect scenario for them, drain em, make them capitualate and sell their hard earned equity, then run gold higher. Blood sucking thieves. JPM at its best.

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  12. Obviously the CFTC is not doing their job for a reason. The reason is that the FED needs the banks in order to control the US.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-05/guest-post-trying-stay-sane-insane-world-part-2

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  13. Additionally the FBI and the media are in cohoots well as the GOP and the DEMs on the issue of surveillance. Nice little FALSE FLAG ON THE TERROR ALERT. Now they run out the main street media to say ..Whew..thank god we had those spyers in place to alert us to this False Flag. It is so ridiculous at this point it is sad.

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  14. "We still hold by our idea that gold maintains at/above $1300 for the next few weeks, then begins a sustained rally to new highs. All signs are that we’re at a major turning point for the metal right here."

    Wow, another blown call.

    Gold now trading down another $10 in Asia as the Chinese are unloading again.

    $1,274 as I speak.

    How many more blown calls in a row can these guys make?

    I guess too many are clutching to the dream and we need a $200 down day to flush these guys out for good.

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    Replies
    1. I am pretty sure by now that these people are not as stupid as they seems to be. It is just not possible being this retarded and still able to talk.
      They are simply con artists pumping gold. I assume all these gold pumpers are getting lots of money from the gold miners and gold dealers. In fact some of them are gold dealers themselves (like Greyerz)
      From that perspective they are consistently making the right calls. Right for their pocket, loosing call for anybody else.

      Delete
  15. tomorrow when I wake up Mark, they will all be screaming that it was another take down raid and yayayayaya and so forth; just wait for energies to start heading south; you knew it years ago when all the stock jockey analysts kept telling everybody about peak oil, peak grains, etc that nothing was any good; staying short beans, silver and yen; that is all, steve in sparks

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  16. Ah yeah and when gold will eventually bottom they will be all over the place screaming loudly "We told you so!"
    "You should have listened to us!"
    Pathetic clowns.

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    Replies
    1. kris;

      I think I have made it clear that insults to those with differing opinions on gold are not going to be tolerated here.

      I have clearly written that KWN is not a "Market Timing" service. If it was, yes, some of the calls there would have not been correct but that is not its main mission. Many of those who provide interviews for KWN are long-term oriented, bigger picture guys. I am a long-term gold bull because of the sheer magnitude of debt in the system and the corresponding response of the Central Banks. But I am also a Trader with a shorter term perspective as well.

      That is why I can give a bearish chart read if the chart is painting that picture for the time being. I also very rarely make calls unless I am completely convinced of it - even at that, there is no certain thing in markets.

      Everyone in the gold community would be well served if everyone who wants to make calls for market bottoms and market tops remembers that humility is a virtue that is much more seemly than recklessness and dogmatism, especially when none of us know what the future holds for us.

      I said all that to say, learn to eat the straw and spit out the sticks. Take the interviews for what they are worth - if you can something valuable from an insight shared, then that is good. If you can see that a prediction failed, then learn to just "spit out that stick" and recognize it for what it is - someone venturing into an area that is best left untouched.



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    2. Well Dan i am just trying to tell the truth (or what I think to be the truth) to warn others about the true intention of the constant bottom calling guys.
      I wish somebody else did so a while ago than I would not have lost a significant amount of my savings by following the advise of these gold pumpers.
      It is one thing to make a mistake once and another to make the same mistake over and over again (by calling bottoms). For me personally it is clear by now that they are not making mistakes they do it by intention for financial gains. I might be wrong but this is my personal belief now.
      Either way if one is constantly making the wrong call which might cause financial loss for others the very least is that they have to bear the criticism. Others have to bear loosing half of their life-savings because they listened to a bunch of self-made experts (and being naive does not justify for one to loose their shirts as somebody said it earlier.)

      I am glad you are giving interviews to KWN because there is at least one person there who gives a reasonable, down-to-earth picture about the true face of the situation.
      Thanks for your selfless service.

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  17. Hey Kris; Are you trying to join Mark and me in the PM Bear Lounge? They will all blast us in the days ahead as we continue in a southern direction for these dogs, but their day will come, right? Yes, > they are all broke; steve in sparks

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  18. Just a note of interest. The october gold is now higher then the december gold. Something that is a rare occurance.

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