“Woe to the land whose king is a child and whose leaders are already drunk in the morning. Happy the land whose king is a nobleman, and whose leaders work hard before they feast and drink, and then only to strengthen themselves for the tasks ahead”. (Eccl 10: 16-17)


"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat


Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput






Sunday, May 12, 2013

Quick Overview of Gold

Gold has had a nice bounce off the 1320 level due to robust demand for the actual metal, especially out of Asia. The problem for the metal here in the West is that speculators, most notably hedge funds, are eager sellers of the metal with many pressing it from the short side while others have yanked their money out of the metal to shove it into stocks so as not to miss the rocket blast higher and have to deal with unhappy clients.

I have been concerned that physical demand for the metal will wane as the price moves higher with those who are intent on acquiring the metal waiting, hoping, for a chance to buy it down below $1400 again. Whether they get the chance to do that remains unclear at this point.

I would like to note that the metal has now completed a sizeable bounce off that recent low but has run out of steam when it entered the $1475 - $1485 zone. In the process of so doing, it has carved out what is referred to in technical analysis jargon as a BEARISH PENNANT OR FLAG FORMATION. I have sketched the flag in heavy blue lines so that you can more readily see it. Normally this pattern forms after a steep drop in a stock or commodity which is followed by a mini uptrend. That uptrend then fails and the stock or commodity begins to move lower again.



Some TA analysts will use a break of the lower trend line formed on the actual flag portion of the pennant (think of a flag for a golf course hole and you will be able to visualize it better - In this case of a bearish flag it is an upside down golf course hole flag) - to validate the flag. That is an aggressive posture. I am much more conservative especially when you do get a recovery bounce of the nature and size that we saw occur in gold. I prefer to see the actual bottom of the flagstick taken out before confirming a flag. After all, a bounce off the recent low of some $160 is rather significant. Now, if gold had managed to claw its way back only to $1400 or so before failing, I would be a bit more aggressive but the size and extent of the buying down at that $1320- $1340 level was so strong that only the most aggressive of traders would want to call this flag validated merely because it drops through the lower trend line.

Generally how these formations are used, whether it is a bullish flag or bearish flag, is to measure the length of the flagstick. In this case, that flagstick starts up near $1590 and extends to $1320 for a measurement of $270.

If we use the case of the aggressive trader who decides that a break of the lower trend line (the pennant) has validated the flag, that $270 then gets subtracted from the breakout point, approximately $1470 in this case, to give us a downside target for the next leg lower. That would yield a gold price near $1200 as a final target.

As just stated, I do not recognize a valid pattern here until the bottom near $1320 were to give way. Gold may never reach that point or it may. I simply do not know. If it did, then I would consider the pattern validated if that level failed to hold and would have to look for a gold price of $1320 - $270 = $1050.

Let's just hope that we do not get a violation of $1320!

34 comments:

  1. "After all, a bounce off the recent low of some $160 is rather significant."
    Agreed, that's why as long as median of monthly (1420) and weekly (1400) pitchforks hold, it looks more like a classic consolidation, maybe before attacking once more the 1485 $ fibo area.
    1400-1420 might be the buying area to play the 1400-1490 range for a while, as long as weekly median holds...daily bollingers on gold and silver getting closer seem to advocate for a decrease of volatility rather than a new immediate strong impulsion.
    Let's see, but I'm tempted to buy around 1400 with a stop loss not far behind...

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  2. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Still believe bond yields top again at around 2% before Gold risks any challenge to $1320. This pricing zone is a large new base supported by extremely practical fundamentals.

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  3. GDX/GLD ratio plunging back to the lows once again.

    Commodities suffering again today as many foreign currencies are getting bludgeoned and the mighty U.S. dollar is being championed and hailed as the reserve currency.

    Because Bernanke can goose stocks at will and jawbone inflation down any time he wants, setting the stage for a glorious inflation-free economic recovery led by the U.S.

    And most importantly, he has implemented a monetary policy to be envied by other central bankers around the world, all of which have now started to copy the "Print to Prosperity" model.

    Want proof? Check out Home Depot, Lowe's, Nordstroms, Williams-Sonoma and all the rest of the "Glam" retail stocks.

    Then look at Kubota, Sony, Toyota ADR's rocketing straight up.

    The only risk is that we are entering a crack up boom and if stocks start going parabolic then we could have trouble soon.

    Dow stalwarts like Exxon with the strongest balance sheet in the world is being shunned in favor of hot names like Tesla, which reminds me of 1999.

    Unfortunately when it all blows up gold could get destroyed just like 2008 because all the big dip buying the last two weeks could reverse and turn into a selling avalanche and trigger 10 years of profitable longs into sellers also.

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  4. You are right Mark.
    The mighty US Dollar seems to be bullet proof no matter how badly it is abused.
    Right now the entire planet is being herded into US paper assets. Here is the lesson...If you have cash you better buy US equities and bonds or your cash will be taken away!
    If you think for even a micro second that the US will give up their reserve currency status gracefully then you would be very wrong. Some very bad things will occur before that happens.
    He who has the reserve currency gets to pretty much do as they please to the rest of the planet.

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  5. Agreed that a break below $1320 would be bad. I am sure the banksters are well aware of this.
    For months before this last severe beating every analyst was stating that if gold broke below $1525 it would go into freefall...and would mark the end of the gold bull market.
    Surprise!...it broke below $1525..well guys, guess what is coming next? Is there any question that $1320.00 will be the next level to be breached ?
    I no longer listen to the cheerleaders who make the "bottom is in" calls, or are constantly going on about epic short squeezes, physical shortages,mysterious whistleblowers and writers/analysts who keep claiming that we are on the verge of epic upward spikes in price.
    It's time we all gave our heads a good shake and started facing some reality here.
    If you bought anything...I mean anything... gold related in the last two years you have lost money. What the heck does this tell you?
    I have no intention of selling at these low prices but I can guarantee you that I will be selling bit by bit on any rally.
    I could care less if I ever hold another gold coin in my hand again.

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  6. Well, certainly the continued gang in Washington combined with the "corrupt" NY Wall street crowd running ramshot on the seniors is making me sick. But, in time, Gold will again make its way known as the real "currency". It is sad what is happening. God, help us to destroy all those that mock you in complete "thievery" and as seen in Philadelphia, thank god the death penalty still exists, unlike here in Maryland.Please lord do to those that destroy life what is necessary to keep the god loving and fearing individuals from total disbelief in this USA. It is not the same one I love and grew up in. Eric "corrupt" Holder, I pray for only one thing,that you get what you deserve in the eyes of our lord. President Obama, your administration is falling apart in front of us as we all know it would. Banksters, Jamie, Blythe, and the rest have now given me a clear vision, no more banking for me. I am done. We no longer have a country that is smart enough to know corruption prior to its manifestation. It is so deep now that we have to cleanse it. I pray that the man in Philadelphia hangs in front of all to see what happens when you defy god on such a cannibalistic level.God help us.

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  7. Mark any admonition to Bernanke is completely and utterly sickening.Sorry, but I break from you here. This is the most horrific administration/Fed/Banking Cartel/ in the history of mankind. Just because we have the currency of the world (FOR NOW) does not mean that we should and are treating our Seniors to such pitiful returns on Savings. This is sickening! This too will end, and if history is any indication of how, it is clear to sound money exactly how it will end. Either one of two ways and both are increasingly coming. As far as Jamie Dimon complaining and threatening to quit, go ahead, make our day. Ben you are trapped by your educational ego. Come spend a day in reality, talk to my mother, or for that matter talk to most seniors who are getting the living heck beat out of them by your gamig the system. I pray you get what you sew. Maybe we can see you broke and your family suffering as you have given to the masses. The banks, hedgies, and all others who defy SOUND MONEY will one day suffer. I pray to god everynite you get what you deserve.

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  8. White Wolf,

    Most people I know are enjoying once in a lifetime gains in their stock investments, even bonds have done stellar since the 2009 lows.

    I was bragging about how well my gold has done the last 10 years but it is nothing compared to the gains some of my friends have made in consumer stocks, some guys have hit 8-baggers in many names featured regularly in Investors Business Daily.

    Market observers don't have to wonder why the consumer is booming and retail, leisure, consumer discretionary stocks are going to new highs.

    The market does not lie.

    Bernanke has done an exceptional job of beating back a potential economic collapse, and eventually the economy will start recovering as 3 years of record low interest rates will have a positive impact.

    If the dollar or the U.S. stock market is destined to crack eventually, we will see technical clues well in advance.

    Similarly, if gold were going to go back up in dramatic fashion, we would get a heads up with an immediate and rapid turn in the XAU well ahead of a big move in the bullion.

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  9. Well put Mark.

    So...is it too late to buy the DOW?
    I have been begging my broker to buy US equities. He keeps wanting to wait for a correction....In my opinion there will be no correction.
    The Dow will simply keep going...there is no end. I am guessing 20k by year end.

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    Replies
    1. This is exactly when most people will think like you and act that the KRACH WILL HAPPEN.
      When there is noone else left to buy, because everyone bought, no matter how much you inject as QE, I think you'll see a deep correction sooner or later OR hyperinflation and massive QE to keep the Dow floating.
      MORE liquidity injected means MORE and MORE VOLATILITY.

      My advice : don't let GREED dominate your thoughts, nor regrets that you didn't get into the train earlier. You should have bought earlier. The more you go up like this, the more the risk of a fast krach. From the reactivity of your broker, how long do you think it will take him to sell your position when the correction starts? What if it starts in 1 month 5% above now and the markets lose 15% in a day?
      My friend, you'd take a huge risk.
      You'd better maybe find an INTRADAY TRADER who would at least be reactive with you money and be able to short the market when it starts correcting.

      Last thought : markets always correct back. At extreme high levels like now, there are rarely any signals telling you when the KRACH happens. There were NONE in 2007.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Hubert

      Hope you are right.

      cheers

      Delete
  10. Everyone to his own opinions but revenues are not supporting the Dow to 20k theory. Do you just cut expenses (wages, r and d investment that will support future growth in more efficient products, or does cheap money and currency devaluation get your stock valuations this great rise?
    Not a buyer of your hypothesis ..japan is going to go e us these answers shortly andfrom my little view of the world
    NOT. Happening. Self defeating and eventually just mirages and inlati

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  11. What is supporting it now at it's present level?
    You are witnessing paper inflation. We were all expecting to see it in commodities and gold...surprise!
    They will hyperinflate the Dow....they don't need no stinking fundamentals.

    This is all for the gangs of New York. Bernanke now has a US equities bubble on his hands, it is no different than the banks, the NYSE is now too big to fail.
    Moan and cry all we want...the DOW is now back stopped by the FED, they will print to infinity to ensure it does not fall.

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    Replies
    1. I'm not specialist, so maybe Dan could confirm, but I don't think they just give free money to be put in the Dow and SP500.
      They loan more and more money at very very low interest rates to hedge funds.
      Those guys take only one direction with that cheap money : LONG.
      But it is not their money, they just borrow it and make the most of very low rates.
      That means that their leverage and exposure to the market is getting crazy high.
      I write Under Dan's control, I hope he'll correct me if I'm totally wrong.
      But if what I'm writing is true, then they are more and more vulnerable to a small correction, with leverage damage, margin calls, which means we are watching a bubble ready to explode.

      Delete
  12. Hi Everyone,

    seems people are feeling depressed with their precious metals investments. I too, feel the pain as I'm heavily invested.

    Just finished reading one of the books by Jim Rogers, and perhaps the wisdom he shares in his book may help you get some perspective...it did for me!

    Here is the link for the summary:
    http://silverreport.blogspot.sg/2013/05/the-commodities-market.html

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  13. Thanks for the link.
    I know I am very negative right now but how can you not be?

    Every day it's DOW up... Gold down, it has been doing this for how long now?

    You could have bought shares in a company that supplies lipstick for cats and dogs and you would have doubled your money by now...that's how insane this is getting.

    I am not sure but I have read several articles where they believe the FED is now buying the DOW directly (using Goldman etc). How else do you herd the masses ?

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    Replies
    1. haha, I know and I hear ya, Dean...

      Here is something that a friend's dad said to me, "If you bought gold let's say at an average price of $1000/ounce, $1100/ounce, $1200/ounce etc and you hold it for 10-15 years, expecting it triple, quadruple or more, then what happens in between is of little significance to me. I just yawn."

      Jim Rogers says that great short term traders are few and far between, so I guess most of these traders get washed out due to volatility in these commodity markets. But if you are a long term investor, I suppose you can make some money and preserve purchasing power at worst while the USD declines in value.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Silver

      This has been real hard to deal with. I know all the quotes like "be right and sit tight" etc. but I (and others) have been sitting tight for a long time now.
      I keep waiting for the PM market to show some signs of life but it just gets bleaker every day.
      The urge to sell all my gold related items and buy the DOW is huge right now. I keep searching for some reason that I should not do this but cannot come up with one.

      Delete
  14. Just look at the current admisitrations policies. Let Eric Holder, EPA, IRS, DOJ, stop everything that is in the best interests of America. Spy on everything that they want to destroy. Bail out the Banks yet let them destroy borrowers, lend to students to get in debt and obtain pieces of paper that are worthless, keep the borders open so illegals/terrorists can openly operate in our country and pay them welfare to bomb us, on and on, and on. I believe Ann Barnhardt is correct, we eventually are going to have to hang all those who are corrupt before we see "real markets" again.

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  15. Another "Green Shoots" and "Goldilocks" day:

    - Stocks up, led by banks and retail

    - Commodities slaughtered, led by gold and silver

    - 10-yr. yield still at a very pleasant 1.91%

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  16. Get used to it Mark.
    Your Gold/oil, ag...will continue to get beaten down.

    I am no analyst but I see nothing but darkness for these sectors.
    I am so wishing I had never heard of gold and just gone all in the general stock market like everyone else.

    Sorry all, I'm hitting a personal low today.

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    Replies
    1. everyone long gold from 1900 to 1500 for the last few years is under water now. So you are not alone. Like in the original movie, The war of the worlds, at the very last moment when everything was lost, a miracle happened. That's what is needed in the gold market now
      .But I don't know where it will come from. Or even when.

      Delete
  17. Unfortunately investing and hoping for a miracle is a good way to lose your money.
    I am increasingly seeing terms like "keep your fingers crossed","hope for the best", "hope for a turn around", being used in investment articles pertaining to PM's.

    This fact alone should be a huge red flag for those of us who hold gold.
    I am not believing any of the hype about the strong physical demand in other far away lands.
    All of this nonsense about shadow stats, MOPE and manipulation...I am so ashamed that I fell for all of this. I am old enough and well educated enough that I should have known better...we all deserve exactly what we are getting...and what we are about to get....fleeced!

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  18. Dean,

    I feel for you and yes I am down, just that I sold at a high, then slowly bought on the way down and it is like when I was a kid in a swimming pool. The bully holds your head under water till you think you are going to die. I am holding through this whole thing, not happily, and very angry at manipulation, ETF creation, and constant MSM beating of gold. But, if the horizon is long enough, something out there will scare the sh__ right out of those bullies, if all else fails...grab their nuts!!!

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  19. Thanks for the encouraging words Wolf..I need them!

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  20. Huge move today in KRE, and MS, GS, and JPM about to knock out to new highs.

    The "Paper Shuffling and Leveraging" business has never been better.

    Metals and Mining might as well be in a 1930's style depression.

    Nobody needs steel, minerals, precious metals, or grains.

    It's all about churning out more and more paper, leveraging, and speculating, etc.

    Never before in financial market history has the world been so enamoured with paper, regardless of how much is printed.

    In fact, the more they print, the more they want, just look at what is happening in Japan.

    It is like we are in a Perpetual Motion Machine that cannot be stopped, and the higher it goes it accelerates even faster!

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  21. Dean,

    Good luck to both of us. I get nervous when I look at some oil etf charts showing this huge drop then just stagnation for the last 5 years. QRAAX from Oppenheimer. Three years ago I thought wow, this is a buy, it has to go up. I just hope the miners do not hold this pattern. Anything is possible in these times we live. We sit on a powder keg in war, Treasuries, Japanese Bonds, Euro bonds, so I think the three years is a stretch, and I pray it is anyhow. Really, if it starts a thunderous come back, I am telling myself do not sell when I am even...squeeze their nuts like mine have been. Hang in there.

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  22. Mark,
    Yep it seems the old business model of "brick and mortar" is dead. Just an internet, digital printer, some news media openings, ignorant staff, and plenty of ink. Lets rock n roll, who needs to have inventory,just print new paper in either yens, US dollars, Euros, francs, it does not really matter. Open up a terminal on Bloomberg under the Fed Flag (or any other alternative central bank that still has a bond market and a government that can lie) and lets rock!!!! No matter that their is very limited individual buyers, just call in the institutionals, the japanese, the americans and we can print our way to prosperity. I know Dan will love the idea. He likes it, just like Mikey on the old Life commercial. Who needs buyers and sellers and real markets. We can make our own with POMO's, strut out some ex fed guys, and non-voting members to tell the world we are about to stop. But in meantime lets get this party started. I want to rock with you...all day. Man, if I had only known how easy it was to make a few schekels I would not have taken all that finance and econ stuff. I would not have worked so hard to pay for my education bartending, waiting tables, building decks, painting houses. I would just called up Benny and the Jets and gone Elton John along time ago. Benny and the Jets..

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  23. In the meantime lets call up Eric Holder. He seems to have some great connections. We can use him to bug all the Wall Street phones and we can find out when, where and how much they are going to short gold. Then staff up with guys like Paul Krugman, just in case we run out of ink, we can borrow some platinum coins, and print some more. Who cares anymore. This thing will rock out. Heck, Eric's buddy Barak Hussein, he can lend us his teleprompter and teach us a thing or two about two face lying, backing out of threats to hostile nations, and if we really get in hot water, have him claim we need Executive Priveleges in order to avoid any testimony about our system. No problems. This finance stuff is way below destroying capitalism and the constitution. We don't need no stinking constitution. We are ABOVE THE LAW. Heck Jamie Dimon can hire a hottie like Blythe Master to create some more leveraged derivatives and then we are off to the races. Hike a ride on a Soviet Rocket maybe? This stuff is not rocket science if you control all these miniscule things like laws of economics, federal laws, state laws. We dont need no stinking badges.

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  24. Worst comes to worst, our friends the Japanese, the will commit hari kari or seppuku for us. I am telling you folks you are all worked up for nothing. Kuroda loves to have his people dying in nuclear wastelands, freezing during the winter and boiling during the summer. NO PROBLEM they love us Americans. We have the Answer to it all. Just print baby print, all the while lie. It works great!! UNTIL IT DOESNT

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  25. Sorry Dan,

    I get worked up and have to laugh and make some off hand remarks. Recently the news had me loading and unloading my weapons just thinking about how bad I wanted to use them. If I dont laugh and make fun of this whole charade I even start thinking about how fun it would be to start a revolution. Heck one my friends shot out his brand new TV when he saw the teleprompter king come on. I nearly shiiii. He is alot crazier than me and needed his meds. I was glad he did not shoot me. Anyhow everyone who has a brain knows this cannot last forever. Putin is getting a little testy himself. He went out and bought some wigs and super sneaky stuff and planted in on one of our State Employees. It was a message. I am sure the message he came back with to tell our silly little government they better keep out of syria or we will have real war huh?

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  26. Dean,

    If it helps, I buy physical metals to hold on forever and hopefully leave it to my kids for a better future than I had. Therefore the price of Gold is irrelevant. If you buy over the lifetime, your dollar-cost-averaging will work wonders.

    I use SLV, AGQ, etc. for my leveraged buying to make a killing in the market (lol, jokes on me). So you know how I have been raped over the last few months. It has been painful. I listened to the so-called "experts" and sold some of my favorite stock that I had been following for 5 years (that stock has more than doubled in last 3 months). and all my "leveraged" ETF's have been virtually wiped out.

    Fortunately, my options are relatively far out so there is a glimmer of HOPE. Unfortunately, I got away from something i KNEW to something King World News spouts out. I have to admit, I whole-heartedly agree with them in principle. However, they use sensationalized terms like "legendary, remarkable, amazing charts, richest men in the world, etc" to get people's attention which should make anyone cautious. How about the article that says China is going to the gold backed Yuan? They may be right 3 weeks from now, 3 years from now, or 3 decades from now, but so far I don't believe them.

    While Sinclair does say not to leverage, his time frame is so far off I want to cry (and I do believe Sinclair is a genuine guy). Every piece of PHYSICAL gold helps me sleep at night. Knowing there are frauds on every stage in the political arena, gold arena, stock arena, and banking arena, is what keeps me cautious of everything and everyone.

    Don't get mad at the price of gold or silver. Get mad at the idiots that use someone else to store their physical metals. Get mad at those that really believe the gold they THINK they have is really there. It isn't. How do I know? I know because Monex told me not to store any SPECIFIC items I want in their vaults. Because they COULD NOT return the SPECIFIC items to me. Ever wonder why???? Because they SHUFFLE it around and use it for others that CLAIM THEIR gold. Anyone that stores their gold with someone else is what causes this mess... period.

    Good Luck, and be sure to make your investment decisions objectively and godly. Do not let your emotions run your portfolio.


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  27. HI Nate:

    Thanks for the reply.
    I also hold physical which I started buying about 8 years ago. I really cannot complain about my physical as I have lost very little on it, I think the most I ever paid for a 1 oz coin was $1520, so from that aspect I have held my own.
    Now...the mining shares!! this is where the blood bath has been. In addition I have invested in Oil, some AG. The whole commodity complex has been a dog.
    I know the many reasons why the DOW just keeps climbing but it is hard to stand by and watch.
    I do have some general equities but not near enough.
    As for my gold stocks they are all pretty solid companies, I would love to get rid of them but not at these prices.
    Next time Goldman Sachs says go short or long....you can believe I will listen!
    I never did buy or sell on anything I was told on KWN...I fear many people did.
    This is what has really got me a little peeved, we have way too much sensationalized nonsense pushed at us. I have no idea what the intent of KWN is anymore...he does interview some genuine and legit people (I am beginning to wonder) but it is way over sensationalized.
    Now we have a mysterious chartist called Bo Polny ??...have we become so desperate that we are now supposed to believe someone who appears out of nowhere with bold claims and uses a false name?
    If Mr. Sinclair is posting his work does that make him legit?
    I am not believing much of what anyone in this community says anymore.
    Same old sage advice....please everyone...be very careful of any opinions you read and the only truck you should ever back up is the one that sits in your driveway.

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  28. All one had to do is look at the daily and weekly charts, particularly the MACD. It clearly showed the top in silver and gold, and started a bear market (or correction, whatever you want to call it). Same for the monthly. Until the monthly MACD bottoms, we're not going anywhere up. If the stock market corrects or crashes, it will take G&S with it. Right now, silver under 23, gold at 1412. Money and Markets newsletter has called this crash uncannily correctly. Their target is 1030 and 18-19 by August. Then we might have a buy scenario. I have lost untold amounts trying to be long in G&S for a long time. Now I have short hedges in place on my physical. I've been short MGCs and YIs at various levels during this runup to 1480 area, and that has helped the pain some. My insurance policy for the worst that could happen (ie. Gold at 1030 and silver at 19) are put spreads. When gold was at 1470 area and silver at 24, I put these on ridiculously cheaply, probably a total of $1500, buying Aug gold 1100-1000 put spreads, and Sept. 19-18 silver put spreads. I bought the gold put spreads for about $100 each, and have 5 of them. If gold does indeed drop to 1030 by August, those spreads will go to $30,000-50,000, hence hedging the drop in physical value that might happen (or even profit from it overall). Similarly in silver, though those spreads cost a bit more. With gold at 1412 and silver under 23 right now, these are already marginally profitable. Further moves downwards will increase the value exponentially. Now that I'm protected from the worst case, I don't have that sick feeling every time gold and silver crater. Just wish I'd put the hedges on at 1790 and 34, when I first started thinking about it, and noted that the weekly and monthly charts were in a bear mode. Then I'd be pretty damn happy about it all.

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